Volatility and Staying Invested

In volatile markets, it’s easy for you, as a long term investor, to fall prey to your fears and end up making an emotional decision about your money. It’s not uncommon for investors to move their money to cash or switch to a more conservative asset allocation.

However, these moves may be counterproductive. Historically, many investors who moved out of stocks during down markets didn’t fare as well as those who stayed the course, as they often missed out on subsequent rallies.

“Periods of market volatility may be some of the most challenging for investors,” says Malwal. “Yet if you look back at 2020, or 2008, or other big market corrections, stocks eventually recovered and went on to make new all-time highs. Investors who stayed invested through the downturn were more likely to fully participate in the recoveries than those who shied away from stocks after the decline.”³

Sticking to your plan and staying invested can be advantageous even when things seem dire. For instance, missing just the 5 best days in the market between 1980 and 2022 could have reduced portfolio returns by as much as 38%.⁴ This can be easier said than done, however. Thankfully, there are some steps you can take to help yourself weather the emotional and financial stress that comes with challenging market conditions. You can:

✓ Learn about common investing biases and how to combat them so you don’t overreact in periods of volatility.
✓ Explore defensive investing, which may help protect your portfolio from steep market declines (at the expense of some potential returns). A defensive portfolio may seek to include more conservative stock investments, high-quality bonds, and alternative investments that are less correlated to the performance of traditional asset classes.
✓ Consider developing a steady stream of reliable income that isn’t dependent on market-based sources (e.g., bonds, dividends, or fixed income annuities), so you aren’t stressed about covering your necessary expenses and can better weather near-term volatility.

Source:

Risk and Investing

Risk is an essential part of investing. Regular rebalancing and tax-management techniques may have a substantial impact on a portfolio’s long-term performance.

According to Insights from Fidelity Wealth ManagementSM, here are 5 things you may be doing that might be having a detrimental effect on your investment portfolio.

1. Getting out when the going gets tough

When markets become volatile or experience significant declines, it’s natural to want to try to cut your losses and retreat to what seems like safe territory. But rather than preserving your wealth, you are actually undermining the long-term growth potential of your portfolio.

In general, market declines have tended to be relatively shallow and short-lived compared to expansionary periods. Since 1950, markets have risen an average of 15% per year during expansions—and even 1% per year during recessions.1 So even when things seem most dire, there’s still a chance for positive returns.

Furthermore, because it’s not possible to predict exactly when the market may shift from negative to positive, there’s a chance that you may end up missing out on a rally or recovery when it occurs if you were to take your money out of the market.

Being uninvested for even a short time could have a profound impact: For instance, a hypothetical investor who missed just the best 5 days in the market since 1988 could have reduced their long-term gains by 37%.2

That’s why it’s so important to have a thoughtful, well-established plan in place to help you resist the urge to overreact to short-term volatility and uncertainty.

2. Taking on too much (or too little) risk

Risk is an essential part of investing. The amount of risk you decide to take on could determine how much growth you may be able to achieve in your portfolio and how much volatility you may need to endure to get there.

While there are no guarantees in investing, the key is to take on just enough risk to give your portfolio a chance of reaching your long-term goals, but not so much that it introduces enough volatility to scare you into withdrawing from the market. And one way to achieve that is by diversifying your portfolio, investing in a mix of different asset classes that may behave differently in different market conditions—that way, when some of your investments are down, others may be up, helping to smooth out the bumpiness in the market that can be so disconcerting.

Important information about performance returns. Performance cited represents past performance. Past performance, before and after taxes, does not guarantee future results and current performance may be lower or higher than the data quoted. Investment returns and principal will fluctuate with market and economic conditions, and you may have a gain or loss when you sell your assets. Your return may differ significantly from those reported.

The underlying investments held in a client’s account may differ from those of the accounts included in the composite. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. See footnotes for additional details.

How your assets are allocated across these different asset classes can provide a solid foundation upon which your portfolio may be able to grow over time. It can be a major factor in long-term performance: In fact, up to 90% of the variability of a fund’s return over time can be explained by how its assets are allocated.3

3. Not rebalancing your portfolio regularly

Asset allocation is not a one-and-done exercise or something you can “set and forget.” Over time, the appreciation and depreciation of your investments may result in your portfolio drifting from your initial allocation. As this happens, the amount of risk you’re exposed to could change in ways you may not have expected.

For example, consider a hypothetical portfolio that begins with an asset allocation of 70% stocks and 30% bonds. If over the course of 6 months, stock values were to surge and bond values were to decline, that portfolio might end up closer to something like 80% stocks and 20% bonds—a much riskier allocation—just due to market activity. It can work the other way as well: Were stocks to dip to 60% and bonds to rise to 40%, the portfolio may end up being more conservative than the investor initially intended.

Unless the investor proactively monitors and reallocates assets, perhaps by adding more funds to the account in the desired asset class or moving assets from one class to another, they could potentially experience more volatility than they are comfortable with or less growth than they need to help achieve their goals.

4. Paying too much in taxes

Taxes are a part of life, but nothing says you need to pay any more than is required of you. And yet, many investors may do just that because they don’t realize that there are techniques they can employ to help invest more efficiently and potentially reduce their overall tax burden.

Cutting your tax bill can have a big impact on your portfolio over the long term, by allowing you to keep more of your money and keep it invested, where it can potentially benefit from compounding growth in the market.

Techniques such as tax-loss harvesting or tax-efficient asset location, which places particular types of investments in the accounts most suitable for their tax treatment, can potentially pay off. In fact, the average client with a Personalized Portfolios professionally managed account using tax-smart strategies4 could have save $4,137 per year in taxes.5

5. Going it alone

It’s not always easy to stay on top of these tasks and keep everything running smoothly on your own. And even when you know what you should be doing intellectually, it can be hard to stay the course and keep your emotions in check when markets become challenging. That’s why some investors are more comfortable engaging with a professional investment manager who, for a fee, can oversee many of these important investing duties and provide investors with a backstop of support and guidance that may be able to help them weather the difficulties they encounter on their path to their goal.

The truth is, mismanaging your portfolio has a cost. And whether the mismanagement is the result of an honest mistake, an understandable overreaction, or a simple oversight, ultimately the cost is coming out of your pocket.

But you don’t have to go it alone. Sometimes, working with a professional may be the best course of action. And it may be more likely to lead to a better outcome in the long term. For example, studies have estimated that professional financial advice can add up to 5.1% to portfolio returns over the long term, depending on the time period and how returns are calculated.6

Even if you feel more comfortable managing your portfolio yourself, you may still benefit from meeting with a financial professional from time to time to get another perspective on your approach to investing.

Don’t overcomplicate things

Life is complicated enough as it is. There’s no need to make it any more complicated than it needs to be. With just a little more attention to these important portfolio practices and reaching out for professional help when you need it, you may be able to help ensure that these potential mistakes don’t keep you from reaching your important investing goals.

Source:  Fidelity Wealth Management

Small steps to build and cultivate resilience 

“Just as trees grow their branches towards the sun, spend more time with people who are your source of light.” ~ Dr. Amit Sood, Resilience Option CEO

Dr. Amit Sood has these five micro-practices that build resilience:

Wake up thinking about what or who you’re grateful for and send silent gratitude to that person.

● Send a silent, good wish to someone you’re connecting with. “I do this all day, which makes me feel uplifted,” says Sood.  

● Be present instead of being physically here and mentally elsewhere. 

● Try to notice one new thing every day.  

● Greet at least one person every day as if you haven’t seen them for a month—with enthusiasm and energy.—WH

Nuclear Power

Nuclear energy is not necessarily more expensive the than other forms of energy generation over the long term.

While the initial capital costs, regulatory and safety / security risks are higher than other sources of fossil fuel or renewable energy, nuclear energy’s overall cost is extremely competitive with other methods of electricity and over time can cost the consumer less in usage than other sources of energy.

Compared to other base-load electricity generation types, operating a nuclear energy plant is highly efficient and uses little fuel. Long-term savings in operations ensure that nuclear energy is economically competitive with other forms of electricity.

Kairos Power’s small modular reactor differ from conventional reactors in several ways.

Rather than water, used in conventional nuclear reactors, the Kairos Power reactor uses molten fluoride salt as a coolant. Molten fluoride salts have excellent chemical stability and tremendous capacity for transferring heat at high temperature and retaining fission products. Various U.S. reactor studies confirm the compatibility of molten fluoride salts with conventional high-temperature structural materials (e.g. stainless steel), thus enabling commercially attractive reliability and service life.

Sources:

https://kairospower.com/technology/

https://kairospower.com/newmexico/

Resilience

Resilience is the ability to withstand mental, emotional or physical difficulties, and with practice, patience and persistence, resilience can be learned and cultivated.

Resilience is the ability to effectively face challenges, change and complexity— the three C’s—in a way that ultimately enhances and strengthens you, not diminishes you.

“You grow and change through resilience, just like a muscle that’s torn apart—it’s through the repair that the muscle becomes a stronger version of itself,” says Toronto-based Kevin Rempel, founder of The Hero Mindset. .

Michael Ungar, Ph.D., a family therapist and resilience researcher at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, compares resilience to a roller coaster. He believes that unless we change the patterns of behavior putting us at risk of adversity, we’ll always end up back where we started—unable to handle a crisis. “People talk about resilience as an inner quality or a stable trait, and that’s not the way the science is going,” says Ungar, the founder and director of Dalhousie’s Resilience Research Centre (resilienceresearch.org).

Ungar holds the Canada Research Chair in Child, Family and Community Resilience and is the author of several books, including Change Your World: The Science of Resilience and the True Path to Success (Sutherland House Books, 2019; not available at Costco). “If we say you’re ‘bouncing back,’ the idea is that somehow, you’re returning to normal. But nobody ever goes back to the same normal; you’re changed by your experience,” says Ungar. “What we now understand is you are more or less resilient depending on the circumstances and resources you have around you.”

Sometimes, rushing to recover after experiencing stressful situations can make things worse, notes Taryn Marie Stejskal, Ph.D., founder of the Resilience Leadership Institute (resilience-leadership.com) in Philadelphia and author of The 5 Practices of Highly Resilient People: Why Some Flourish When Others Fold (Hachette Go, 2023)

“We live in a culture where there’s such pressure on everyone to be OK that we’re at a funeral or have surgery on Friday, and we think it’s a big win to be in the office on Monday,” says Stejskal. “But we don’t bounce back; we bounce forward. Resilience is the ability to effectively face challenge, change and complexity—what I call the three C’s—in a way that ultimately enhances us, not diminishes us.”

Stejskal’s book outlines a road map to resilience that includes five practices: vulnerability—the foundation of authenticity and empathy; productive perseverance—knowing when to pivot; connection to ourselves and to others; gratiosity—a term she coined that blends gratitude and generosity; and possibility—how we navigate and manage risk. “When we face challenges or feel deeply alone, afraid, confused and unbalanced, these five practices show us what we’re going to do next,” explains Stejskal. “Just like a muscle or our cardiovascular capability, resilience is something we can increase through training over time.,” she says. It’s a marathon, not a sprint

Costco member Dr. Amit Sood describes resilience as the core strength we use to lift the load of life, leveraging the brain’s ability to change itself with experience. He says what makes one person more resilient than another depends on three factors: genetic makeup—the type of brain we inherit; adverse early childhood experiences; and life circumstances. “If someone’s struggling, it’s not because they’re choosing it. Just as you don’t blame yourself for high cholesterol genes, don’t blame yourself for stress-related genes,” explains Sood, formerly a professor of medicine at Mayo Clinic and now CEO of the Resilient Option (resilientoption.com), a program to improve resilience.

Small improvements, big impact

According to a 2021 study in Frontiers of Psychology, if you improve your resilience by just 5%, you lower the risk of a mental health diagnosis by 10% to 15%. After all, resilience can be learned and enhanced over time, according to a 2022 study conducted at the Princeton Neuroscience Institute.  “Resilience takes a lot of effort, but the beauty is that if you’re able to move resilience even by a little bit, you can have significant impact,” reports Sood.

Research shows that resilient people are much less prone to chronic stress because they’re using skills and strategies,” says clinical psychologist Jo Burrell, CEO and co-founder of Ultimate Resilience (ultimateresilience.co.uk), which provides well-being and resilience training to promote healthy working environments in Nottingham, England, who teaches employees how to regulate threat emotions. “Resilient people are good at recognizing when they’re experiencing anxiety, anger, irritability, impatience and frustration. They put strategies in place to help calm the sympathetic nervous system arousal that happens when we’re stressed.

 

Source:  Wendy Helfenbaum, Moving Forward, Costco Connection, January 2024, pp. 29-31.

Buffet’s Philosophy on Diversification

“Diversification is a safety factor that is essential because we should be humble enough to admit we can be wrong.” ~ Sir John Templeton

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett isn’t a big fan of diversification. Buffett has nearly 68% of Berkshire Hathaway’s $361 billion portfolio invested in only four stocks.

It’s important to note that Berkshire Hathaway owns over 40 stocks. However, four stocks— in addition—Apple, Bank of America, American Express, and Coca-Cola—comprise the lion share of his stock portfolio. Essentially, he believes in their businesses. He explained, “When you find a truly wonderful business, stick with it.”

Buffett wasn’t always so heavily invested in these stocks. Coca-Cola and American Express are his two longest-held positions. The stocks have increased so much in value through the years that they’ve become a bigger part of Berkshire’s portfolio.

In 1998, Buffett summarized his philosophy about diversification: “If you really know businesses, you probably shouldn’t own more than six of them. If you can identify six wonderful businesses, that is all the diversification you need, and you’re going to make a lot of money.”

You might follow Buffett’s lead and invest heavily in a small number of stocks only if you can meet the two criteria he specified:

  1. Have a thorough understanding of their underlying businesses.
  2. Find “wonderful businesses.”

However, Buffet did say: “If you are not a professional investor, if your goal is not to manage money in such a way so you get a significantly better return than the world, then I believe in extreme diversification.”

In other words,. Diversification is a good thing for most retail investors.

One important fact:

If you had invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 in 1964, your investment would have grown to approximately $3.1 million by now, reflecting a total return of around 31,223%.

On the other hand, the same $10,000 investment in Berkshire Hathaway would have skyrocketed to an astounding $438.5 million, with a total return of about 4,384,748%.

This dramatic difference highlights Berkshire Hathaway’s exceptional performance under Warren Buffett’s leadership, significantly outpacing the broader market.

Source:

  1. https://finbold.com/this-is-how-berkshire-hathaway-has-outperformed-sp-500-since-warren-buffet-took-over/
  2. Keith Speights, Why Warren Buffett Has 68% of Berkshire Hathaway’s $361 Billion Portfolio Invested in Only 4 Stocks, Motley Fool, April 21, 2024. https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/04/21/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-portfolio-stocks/

Nuclear Energy and Small Modular Reactors

There’s genuine excitement in the air around nuclear power, heightened by Constellation Energy (CEG) announcing it was restarting a nuclear reactor at Three Mile Island under a power-purchase agreement with Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), and recent announcement that Google and Amazon are investing in small modular reactors (SMR).

Small modular reactors (SMRs), offer cheaper, flexible energy. Producing up to 300 megawatts, SMRs can power factories or neighborhoods, reducing fossil fuel reliance and improving safety.

Currently, nuclear energy’s share of global power generation slumped to 10% in 2021 from 17% in 1990, and much of that dwindling share is powered through aging reactors. Accidents, waste disposal concerns and, perhaps most importantly, costs, have all hampered nuclearoutput.

Construction times for new reactors also are an issue — a new reactor in Finland took 16 years to complete.

But sentiment around nuclear energy is changing. An UBS report says it’s not just technology sector demand for nuclear energy but also the backstopping from governments that can push nuclear forward. “Nuclear is an important source of clean and reliable power that our nation needs to meet the growing demand for energy,” said Ken Griffin, Founder and CEO of Citadel.

Kairos Power is a company focused on developing advanced nuclear reactor technology. Kairos Power is working on the Kairos Power Fluoride Salt-Cooled High Temperature Reactor (KP-FHR), which uses TRISO fuel in pebble form combined with a low-pressure fluoride salt coolant. This innovative technology aims to provide a cost-competitive and reliable clean energy solution.

Recently, Kairos Power signed an agreement with Google to develop small modular reactors (SMRs) to provide up to 500 MW of new carbon-free power to U.S. electricity grids.

Source:  MarketWatch, September 24, 2024, and https://kairospower.com/

Fear of Missing Out Investing

Most new and seasoned investors make the same mistake with their money over and over:

They buy high out of greed and sell low out of fear.

At the top of the market, investors can’t buy fast enough. At the bottom, they can’t sell fast enough. And investors repeat that over and over until they’re broke.

Can you imagine doing this in any other setting? Imagine walking into an Audi dealership and saying, “I need a new A6.” The salesperson says, “Oh my gosh, you’re in luck, we just marked them up 30%.” And you say, “Awesome, I’ll take three!”

Investors are hardwired to get more of what gives us security and pleasure, and run away as fast as we can from things that cause pain. That behavior has kept people alive as a species. Mix that with investors desire to be in the herd, the feeling that there’s safety in numbers, and you get a pretty potent cocktail.

(FOMO – fear of missing out):  When everyone else is buying, it feels like if you don’t join them, you’re going to get eaten by the financial version of a saber-toothed tiger.

But it doesn’t take a genius to see that this behavior is terrible for individuals when it comes to investing.

Source:  Carl Richards, How fear and greed kill returns

National Estate Planning Awareness Week

Creating an estate plan is about making sure your loved ones are protected after you’re gone.

An estate plan is a valuable set of documents outlining plans for your assets and family after you die. While everyone’s needs differ, ensuring your property and family are cared for is essential. It also has tax benefits.

Estate planning is the process of creating legal documents that outline:

  • How to distribute your property after you die
  • Who will get custody of your children and pets
  • Who will make financial and medical decisions on your behalf once you can no longer make them yourself

In addition to this documentation, an estate plan can include life insurance and long-term care insurance policies.

The goal is to protect you, your family and your assets. An estate plan ensures your property is transferred to the appropriate people while limiting estate taxes to maximize the legacy you pass to your heirs. The tax burden can vary based on your estate’s value and your state’s tax threshold, with larger estates typically incurring higher tax bills.

Dying without a will is called dying intestate. If you die intestate, your state’s laws determine who gets your property and who gets custody of your children. An estate plan allows you to make these choices based on your wishes and your family’s best interests.

An estate plan may involve a will, trust, power of attorney (POA) and health care directives. You can use an online service or work with various professionals — such as your financial planner, estate attorney and accountant — to create these documents.

Source:  Alison Tobin, Estate Planning Checklist, Money Magazine, Nov 27, 2023.

This Too Shall Pass

“We can endure much more than we think we can; all human experience testifies to that. All we need to do is learn not to be afraid of pain. Grit your teeth and let it hurt. Don’t deny it, don’t be overwhelmed by it. It will not last forever. One day, the pain will be gone and you will still be there.”

— Harold S. Kushner

“Life is painful if you do it right. Life will inevitably hurt you and the quality you need is not to lead a charmed life so that you’ll never be tested,” writes Rabbi Harold Kushner.  “The quality you need is the resilience to get over that. The answer is: live bravely. Live bravely in an unreliable world.”

The phrase “this too shall pass” is a powerful reminder of the transient nature of all things, both good and bad. It encourages you to stay grounded and maintain perspective during challenging times, knowing that they are temporary.

Incorporating this mindset into your daily life can be a form of gratitude practice. By acknowledging that difficult moments will eventually pass, you can focus more on the present and appreciate the positive aspects of your life.

Simple ways to practice gratitude:

  1. Keep a Gratitude Journal: Write down three things you’re grateful for each day. This helps you focus on the positive aspects of your life.
  2. Express Thanks: Take a moment to thank someone in your life, whether it’s through a note, a call, or a simple “thank you.”
  3. Mindful Moments: Pause during your day to appreciate the small things, like a beautiful sunset, a good meal, or a kind gesture.
  4. Gratitude Jar: Write down things you’re grateful for on slips of paper and put them in a jar. Review them whenever you need a boost.
  5. Reflect Before Bed: Spend a few minutes before sleeping to reflect on the good things that happened during the day.
  6. Acts of Kindness: Perform random acts of kindness. Helping others can increase your own sense of gratitude.
  7. Meditation and Prayer: Incorporate gratitude into your meditation or prayer practice, focusing on the blessings in your life.

Always be grateful!