What interesting days we are experiencing in the world of finance and economics we Americans currently find ourselves.  Financial pundits and and commentator in the financial entertainment media are forecasting a high probability of a recession for the U.S. economy in late calendar year 2019 or in calendar year 2020.  Financial experts and analysts point to slowing global economic growth, to de-accelerating corporate quarterly earnings growth and to inversion of the yield curve when long-term interest rates are paying out less than short-term rates, which has been a signal that the economy is heading for recession in the next nine to 18 months.

Granted, the current U.S. economic expansion that began more than ten years ago (March 2009) is considered long in the tooth by many smart money investors.  However, history reveals that America’s past economic expansions and bull markets generally do not end from old age or tend to run out of steam and slide into a recession.  History informs us that there must be a catalyst such as central bank monetary tightening, the bursting of a financial bubble or a severe geopolitical event that would drive a nation’s and the global economy into recession.

So, when you hear commenters on American financial entertainment media proclaim that a few of their paid analyst have correctly predicted the last recession or the most recent financial correction, be very skeptical and remember that even a broken clock is correct twice a day.