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Price Line vs. Earnings Line

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“A quick way to tell if a stock is overpriced is to compare the price line to the earnings line. If you bought familiar growth companies – such as Shoney’s, The Limited, or Marriott – when the stock price fell well below the earnings line, and sold them when the stock price rose dramatically above it, the chances are you’d do pretty well.” Peter Lynch

As the former head of Fidelity’s flagship Magellan Fund, Peter Lynch produced an annualized rate of return of 29.2% over his 13-year stint at the helm. This track record has arguably placed him as the best mutual fund manager of all time.

In his best-selling book, “One Up On Wall Street,” Lynch revealed a powerful charting tool, called the “Peter Lynch chart,” that greatly simplified his investment decisions. This simple graph plots the stock price against its “earnings line,” a theoretical price equal to 15 times the earnings per share.

When a stock trades well below its earnings line, you should buy, according to Lynch’s theory. When it rises above its earnings line, you should sell. For example, the Wal-Mart Stores (ticker: WMT ) share-price line fell below the Lynch line at about $55 in March 2010. It didn’t climb back over the Lynch line until June 2012, when shares were $67.50. Had you bought the first crossover and sold the second, you would have gained $12.50 a share, or about 23%.

The idea behind this technique is simple. Lynch believe that mature, stable companies are worth roughly 15 times their annual earnings. And over the last 135 years, this has proven to be the mean valuation of the S&P 500 index.

This is known as a the P/E ratio. It is merely the price of the stock divided by its earnings per share. The resulting multiple represents how many times you are paying for last year’s earnings at today’s stock price.

All things being equal, the lower the number the better. Low P/E ratios mean that you are getting more earnings for your investment dollar. And since most large cap stocks eventually trade for at least 15 times earnings, you are more likely to see your shares appreciate as they return to the 15 P/E level.

This simple idea was the basis of Lynch’s investment approach and the reason he created the chart whichconsists of only two lines. The first is the stock price. The second is the hypothetical stock price if it were to trade at a P/E of 15 (the earnings line).

It is a well-known fact among experienced investors that a stock’s price follows its earnings. Over multi-year periods, stock prices move in sync with changing company earnings.

But over the short term, stock prices are unpredictable. This is what creates valuable opportunities for savvy and patience investors.

Furthermore, a good rule of thumb is that the P/E ratio of any fairly valued company will equal its earnings growth rate. A company with a P/E ratio that is half its growth rate is very positive. A company with a P/E ratio that is twice its growth rate is deemed negative.

Thirteen attributes you should investigate for in a stock with the potential for 10x growth, according to Peter Lynch:

  1. The company name is dull or ridiculous.
  2. The company does something dull and boring
  3. The company does something disagreeable or disgusting.
  4. The company is a spin-off like the Baby Bells.
  5. Institutions don’t own it and analysts don’t follow it.
  6. There are negative rumors about it, like Waste Management.
  7. There is something depressing about it such as SRB, which provides burial services.
  8. That it is a company in a no growth industry, since it’s in a non competitive business.
  9. It has a niche such as drug companies.
  10. People have to keep buying the products such as drugs, food and cigarettes.
  11. The company is the user of technology such as Domino’s.
  12. The company insiders are buyers of the stock.
  13. The company is buying back its shares.

Best stocks to avoid is the hottest stock in the hottest industry. Negative growth industries do not attract competitors. Additionally, avoid companies with excessive debt on its balance sheet and invest in companies that have little or no debt.

The debt must always be lower than the equity. If the company has a debt lower than 50% of the equity, it is considered to be in a good financial position. If it is lower than 25%, it’s excellent. When the debt is above 75% of the equity, it is recommended to avoid that company.

References:

  1. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/peter-lynch-earned-29-13-231636799.html
  2. https://tofinancialfreedom.co/en/one-up-on-wall-street-summary-book/
  3. https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2021/04/16/lynchs-one-up-on-wall-street-inspired-screening-strategy/

Maximizing Your Social Security Benefit

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The highest Social Security benefit you or any retired American can collect at age 70 in 2021 is $3,895 a month.

The most an individual who files a claim for Social Security retirement benefits in 2021 can receive per month is:

  • $3,895 for someone who files at age 70. 
  • $3,148 for someone who files at full retirement age (currently 66 and 2 months)
  • $2,324 for someone who files at 62.

Full retirement age, or FRA, is the age when you are entitled to 100 percent of your Social Security benefits, which are determined by your lifetime earnings. If you were born between 1943 and 1954, your full retirement age was 66. If you were born in 1955, it is 66 and 2 months. For those born between 1956 and 1959, it gradually increases, and for those born in 1960 or later, it is 67.

It is important to know that:

  • Claiming benefits before full retirement age will lower your monthly payments;
  • You can increase your retirement benefits by waiting past your FRA to retire up to age 70.

To be eligible for the maximum benefit, your earnings must have equaled or exceeded Social Security’s maximum taxable income — the amount of your earnings on which you pay Social Security taxes — for at least 35 years of your working life. The maximum taxable income in 2021 is $142,800.

The maximum taxable earnings is the limit on the amount of your earnings that is taxed by Social Security. The maximum earnings that are taxed has changed over the years. If you’ve earned more than the maximum in any year, whether in one job or more than one, Social Security Administration only uses the maximum to calculate your benefits.

References:

  1. https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/maxtax.html
  2. https://www.aarp.org/retirement/social-security/questions-answers/maximum-ss-benefit.html
  3. https://www.aarp.org/retirement/social-security/questions-answers/social-security-full-retirement-age/

Knowing How Much You’ll Need (Your Number) in Retirement

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Studies have consistently shown that the majority of Americans have no idea how much they need to save for retirement. Most use an arbitrary round number, such as $1 million, as the amount they require for a retirement nest egg. While having a random savings goal is obviously better than none at all, finding a more accurate retirement number doesn’t have to be complicated, according to Motley Fool.

The truth is that how much you’ll need for retirement is unique to you and your family. However, many people gain confidence in their plans to retire whilst actually planning in order to know what to set aside for daily expenses, healthcare, and recreation.

Failing to plan, is planning to fail

For retirement planning support and support over the course of your retirement, consulting a financial advisor has been shown to be a positive option. Voya Financial, in a study, found that 79% of people who use an advisor said they “know how to pursue achieving their retirement goals.” The study also found that 59% of those who use an advisor have calculated how much they need to retire, while 52% established a formal retirement investment plan.

There’s no way to accurately project exactly how much you’ll need to save and invest for retirement, but it’s a smart idea to err on the side of caution and aim to exceed your retirement number. After all, the last thing you want is to be 85 years old and running out of money.

References:

  1. https://article.smartasset.com/4-key-steps-for-retiring-comfortably
  2. https://www.fool.com/retirement/2016/10/09/the-simple-way-to-find-your-retirement-number.aspx

Disciplined Investing | Fidelity Investment

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“If you buy a stock without dividends, make sure it’s marketed well so the value increases and you can eventually sell it for a profit. Anything less isn’t worth your investment.” Mark Cuban

Many people want to invest in stocks but are simply afraid to take the plunge. Yet, investing in stocks is essential for individuals to reach their financial goals and to enjoy a life of financial freedom in retirement

However, investing in stocks is a simple process, but not easy to execute. In order to stay on track with your financial goals, it’s important to keep your emotions and confidence in check while investing since one’s behavior in the .

The key thing to understand is that over longer periods of time there is significantly less volatility in the market. Short-term, there is no question that investing in stocks is risky. While you have a chance at larger reward, there is often a greater chance of a massive loss.

This Fidelity Investment video shows how disciplined investing can help you meet your financial goals.

Six rules to disciplined investing which will help you make better long-term financial and invesment decisions:

  1. Have a long-term investment philosophy and plan.
  2. Form a prudent asset allocation based on this philosophy.
  3. Select low-cost index funds to represent asset classes in the allocation.
  4. Maintain this portfolio through all market conditions.
  5. Don’t change the asset allocation due to recent market activity.
  6. Don’t hold back on new investments while waiting for market clarity.

References:

  1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2015/10/06/six-rules-to-disciplined-investing

Investing Truths by Peter Lynch

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“Wisdom acquisition is a moral duty. It’s not something you do just to advance in life. Wisdom acquisition is a moral duty. As a corollary to that proposition which is very important, it means that you are hooked for lifetime learning. And without lifetime learning, you are not going to do very well.”  Charlie Munger

Peter Lynch stressed the importance of looking at the underlying business enterprise strength, which he believed eventually shows up in the company’s long-term stock price performance. Also, pay a reasonable price relative to the company’s market value.

Here are important investing truths from Peter Lynch:

  1. Know what you own and be able to explain why you own it.  Only buy what you understand. ” Never invest in any company before you’ve done the homework on the company’s earnings prospects, financial condition, competitive position, plans for expansion, and so forth.”
  2. Compounding of capital and principal takes time. Be patient, because most great wealth from the stock market is built over decades. “Often, there is no correlation between success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock over a few months or even years. In the long term, there is 100% correlation between the success of the company and the success of the stock. This disparity is the key to making money; it pays to be patient and to own successful companies.”
  3. Simple is usually better than complex and smart. “If you’re prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won’t get bored.”
  4. Volatility of the stock market is guaranteed. “You’ve got to look in the mirror every day and say: What am I going to do if the market goes down 10%? What do I do if it goes down 20%? Am I going to sell? Am I going to get out? If that’s your answer, you should consider reducing your stock holdings today.”
  5. Finding undervalued companies selling below their intrinsic value is a lot harder today. “A stock-market decline is as routine as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you. A decline is a great opportunity to pick up the bargains left behind by investors who are fleeing the storm in panic.”
  6. Start early and at a very eary age. Invest for the long term…stocks are relatively predictable over 10-20 years. “Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies. You can afford to be patient – even if you missed Walmart (WMT, Financial) in the first five years, it was a great stock to own in the next five years. Time is against you when you own options.”
  7. Focus on the company behind the stock. Do not become overly attached to a stock. “Although it’s easy to forget sometimes, a share is not a lottery ticket…it’s part-ownership of a business.”
  8. Don’t try to predict the market. “Nobody can predict the interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what‘s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.”
  9. Study history. Market crashes are great opportunities. “During the Gold Rush, most would-be miners lost money, but people who sold them picks, shovels, tents, and blue-jeans (Levi Strauss) made a nice profit. Today, you can look for non-internet companies that indirectly benefit from internet traffic (package delivery is an obvious example); or you can invest in manufacturers of switches and related gizmos that keep the traffic moving.”
  10. It’s very tough for a company to go bankrupt if a company has more cash than debt or if they do not have debt. “The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.”
  11. When you own stocks, it will alwalys be scary due to volatility and there is always something to worry about.  Everyone is a long term investor until stocks go down. “There is always something to worry about. Avoid weekend thinking and ignore the latest dire predictions of newscasters. Sell a stock because the company’s fundamentals deteriorate, not because the sky is falling.”
  12. When yields on long-term government bonds exceed the dividend yields of the S&P 500 by 6% or more, sell stocks and buy bonds. ““In the long run, a portfolio of well-chosen stocks and/or equity mutual funds will always outperform a portfolio of bonds or a money-market account. In the long run, a portfolio of poorly chosen stocks won’t outperform the money left under the mattress.”

Emotions can be a real performance killer according to Lynch, if market drops get you selling out in a panic, or market surges have you greedily snapping up overvalued shares. The best investors will do the opposite.

“The single greatest edge an investor can have is a long-term orientation.” Seth Klarman

References:

  1. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/06/peterlynch.asp
  2. https://www.fool.com/retirement/2020/04/07/9-investing-tips-from-peter-lynch-that-you-shouldn.aspx
  3. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/341584/peter-lynch-golden-rules-for-investing-
  4. https://www.valuewalk.com/2015/07/peter-lynchs-investing-principles-and-25-golden-rules/
  5. https://www.suredividend.com/peter-lynch-investing-lessons/

Your Health…a Long Term Investment

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Your health is an investment, not an expense. John Quelch

What would you call an investment that involves little to no risk, requires little money or capital to start, is available equally to every American, grows more valuable every year, is a proven career booster and can generate hundreds of thousands of dollars of extra savings over a lifetime?

It’s called good health.

August is National Wellness Month and a great opportunity to make an investment in your overall health and wellness, so you can do more of the activities you love now, and remain healthy enough to do the activities you enjoy in the future. Thus, it is essential that you view your physical, mental and emotional health as a long term investment, not an expense.

Think about all of the things you spend money on. Some things are critical to living such as food, a roof over your head, and clothes to wear. However, as a whole, you tend to spend money on some things that are unnecessary, and then think that you don’t have enough money to invest in and to manage your health.

Invest in your health for ‘health is wealth’

The biggest and most obvious reason that you should invest in your health is that you only get one body and mind in your lifetime. This means that keeping your body and mind. healthy should be your top priority.

Another great reason to take care of your body today is that you may not have taken the best care of it in the past. Whether it was all the process foods and sugary snacks you ate as a kid, or the one too many beers you had in college, most Americans could stand to make up for an unhealthy lifestyle in their past. The other reason you should invest in your health today is that the investment will pay off and compound in the long term. To paraphrase an adage…the best time to invest in your health was ten years ago and the second best time is today.

The best investment you can ever make is in your own health.

More than ever you must not only protect, but focus on improving your mental, emotional and physical health. It’s important that you find ways of improving your well-being and taking care of your health because it is an investment worth making.

One way to emphasize your health is to manage and measure your health.

Healthy aging

So many people spend their health gaining wealth, and then have to spend their wealth to regain their health. A. J. Reb Materi

The bottom line is that you should be spending at least as much time educating yourself and dedicating yourself to healthy lifestyles, exercise and diets as you do to maximizing your returns on investment.

References:

  1. http://yourqualitycareassociates.com/your-health-is-an-investment-not-an-expense/
  2. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/health-investment_b_909015

Google Knows Your Location | CNET

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If you use any Google app, your location and data history might be stored.

You think that you’ve turned off your location history and tracking on your Google account, so now your. But, hold on.

While disabling that setting sounds like a one-and-done, some Google apps are still storing your location data, as explored in a 2018 investigation by the Associated Press.

Fortunately, Google has made it easier to control what location and other data is saved, and what is deleted with features like Your Data in Maps and Search, which give you quick access to your location controls, according to CNET.

How to turn off Google’s location tracking 

To completely shut down Google’s ability to log your location, here’s what to do:

  1. Open up Google.com on your desktop or mobile browser. 
  2. At the top right, log into your Google account if you aren’t already.
  3. Select Manage your Google Account.
  4. In the Privacy & Personalization box, select Manage your data & personalization.
  5. Scroll down to the Activity Controls, and select Manage your activity controls.
  6. There you’ll see a box called Web & App Activity. From there, you can slide the toggle switch to off. 
  7. There will be a disclosure to ensure you understand what disabling this setting will do before you select Pause.

References:

  1. https://www.cnet.com/tech/services-and-software/google-always-knows-where-you-are-heres-how-to-turn-that-off
  2. https://apnews.com/article/north-america-science-technology-business-ap-top-news-828aefab64d4411bac257a07c1af0ecb

Hemp Hearts Benefits

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YOUR HEALTH IS AN INVESTMENT, NOT AN EXPENSE

Hemp hearts are the inner part of the hemp seed and are cultivated from the Cannabis Sativa plant. Cannabis Sativa is the plant most commonly associated with marijuana, but hemp and marijuana are not the same. Hemp hearts are collected from the Cannabis Sativa seeds, while marijuana is derived from the flowers, stems, and leaves of this plant. Hemp hearts do not contain any psychoactive compounds, such as THC, and will not produce a “high”. 

Hemp hearts are superfoods that contain all the essential nutrients and minerals the human body needs. This superfood can provide benefits such as fighting inflammation, lowering blood pressure, and protecting your muscles and joints. 

Hemp seed hearts are easy to consume, making them a popular choice for a lot of people. Besides the ease of consumption, there are several main hemp hearts benefits you don’t want to miss out on.

Hemp Hearts Benefits

The main health benefits of hemp hearts include:

1. Reduce the Risk of Heart Diseases

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), heart diseases are the leading cause of death in the world. These conditions (and death rates) can be curbed by lowering LDL cholesterol levels of individuals.

A good way of doing this is by including healthy fats in your diet. 80% of a hemp heart consists of polyunsaturated fats such as omega-3 and omega-6 fats which is vital in this regard. Hemp hearts contain the ideal ratio of Omega 6 & 3 in a 3:1 ratio, just perfect for your body to absorb.

These essential fatty acids are responsible for improving heart health, supporting brain development, fighting inflammation, promoting bone health and decrease joint and chronic pain that can come from arthritis.

2. Relieving Premenstrual Syndrome (PMS) Symptoms

One of the not so obvious benefits of organic hemp hearts is helping women manage their PMS symptoms. Hemp’s heart consists of gamma-linolenic acid (GLA) which alleviates these symptoms by balancing the body’s hormone levels and stearidonic fatty acids which also help to protect against inflammation.

3. Boost Digestion

Hemp hearts contain Edestin protein which resembles the bodies’ globular proteins in the blood plasma. This makes the protein compatible with our digestion system and, therefore, easily absorbed by the body. This may be the reason why there are no reported food allergies related to hemp foods.

4. Reduce the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes

Consuming hemp hearts adds magnesium to your system which is responsible for breaking down sugars and reducing insulin resistance in your body. Insulin resistance often results in Type 2 diabetes.

5. Body Tissue Repair and Growth

Hemp protein contains all the 20 known amino acids – including nine essential amino acids (EAAs). EAAs are amino acids that the body can’t do without. A deficiency in EAAs may lead to serious degenerative conditions.

Hemp is a great alternative to animal protein. Proteins like edestin and albumin from the hemp seeds easily assimilate into the body, improving your immune system.

6. Essential Amino Acids                                          

There are about eight amino acids that the human body cannot make, and two that the body cannot make in sufficient quantities. These essential amino acids are present in hemp seeds. They’re vital for functions such as tissue repair, nutrient absorption, and protein synthesis.

Additionally, hemp hearts are rich in vitamins and minerals such as:

  • Magnesium – assists with muscle function
  • Manganese – an antioxidant that also helps with metabolism
  • Calcium – assists with healthy bone development
  • Vitamin E – supports hair, skin, nails, and metabolism 
  • Vitamin D – assists with healthy bone development 
  • Zinc – assists with nerve and muscle function

It’s also a good source of iron, phosphorous, and potassium for the body.

References:

  1. https://thehumminggroup.com/raw-hemp-hearts/
  2. https://whatishemp.com/blog/6-hemp-hearts-benefits-you-dont-want-to-forego/
  3. https://whatishemp.com/blog/kickstart-your-day-with-a-bowl-of-tasty-hemp-muesli/

The Delta Variant: What You Should Know

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Delta variant is causing vaccine breakthrough infections.

The Delta variant is an example of how the virus that causes COVID-19 can change as it spreads and has caused nearly 75% of the current infections in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

New evidence is showing that the delta variant is as contagious as chickenpox and this has prompted U.S. health officials to consider changing advice on wearing masks.

The CDC is encouraging all Americans to get vaccinated, recommending masks for everyone and requiring vaccines for doctors and other health care providers.

If you are fully vaccinated, your risk of infection is lower, but some people can still spread the Delta variant. When “breakthrough cases” of COVID-19 do occur in vaccinated people, nearly all are avoiding serious illness, hospitalization, or death. cdc.gov/coronavirus

To maximize protection from the Delta variant and prevent possibly spreading it to others, wear a mask indoors in public if you are in an area of substantial or high transmission.

For schools, CDC recommends universal indoor masking for all teachers, staff, students, and visitors to K-12 schools, regardless of vaccination status. Children should return to full-time in-person learning in the fall with layered prevention strategies in place.

References:

  1. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

U.S. Labor Shortage Maybe Worse Than It Looks | Barron’s

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“Enhanced unemployment benefits have made it harder for employers to fill low-paying jobs, working parents continue to struggle with child care, and some workers are sitting out because of pandemic concerns.” Barron’s

According to a recent article in Barron’s Magazine, there are 9.2 million job openings and 9.5 million unemployed in the U.S. Employers, conservative politicians, economists, and policy makers blame the bottleneck on twin forces:

  • Generous jobless benefits that have made unemployment the better economic decision for millions of low-paid workers, and
  • A year of remote learning that has pushed some two million parents—mostly mothers—out of the labor force.

The expectation by many economists is that the labor shortage will resolve itself this fall once extra federal jobless assistance ends as of September 6 and parents send their children back to school. However, there are deeper problems besetting the labor market, from “an aging workforce and a new desire of many workers to be their own boss to a deep skills mismatch and a pandemic that hasn’t ended”.

The impact of slowing population growth on labor supply hadn’t been so apparent before the pandemic because many baby boomers worked past the traditional retirement age of 65. In July 2019, Pew Research Center said the majority of U.S. adults born between 1946 and 1964 were still working, with the oldest among them staying in the labor force at the highest annual rate for people their age in more than half a century. But now the oldest boomer is turning 75, the working-age population is falling for the first time in U.S. history, and the pandemic has led many older workers to retire ahead of schedule.

Geoffrey Sanzenbacher, an economics professor at Boston College, found that 15% of those over age 62 were retired a year after the coronavirus took hold in the U.S., up from 10% a year after the 2007-09 recession started and 13% right before the pandemic. As companies expect workers to return in the fall, he says another wave of older workers may choose to retire if they can no longer work remotely.

And, it isn’t just older workers walking away from the labor market, nor is it only low-paid service workers. Many departed workers are gone for good since they joined the gig economy or started new businesses that have flourished during the pandemic.

Yet, there is some evidence that continuing claims for jobless insurance have fallen faster in states that ended the extra payments ahead of the federal Sept. 6 expiration. Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, says such claims have fallen 24% since mid-May in the states that have already cut the extra $300 a week, compared with a 0.7% increase in states that haven’t.

A record number of new businesses launched during the pandemic as workers turned into entrepreneurs. Immigration, the lifeblood of many services companies, dropped significantly in recent years. Retail day trading is still booming along with the stock market, keeping many who became amateur traders during the pandemic on the sidelines.

Many doubts persist that millions of moms will return to work in September. Many families have established new norms over the past year, and many parents still harbor COVID-19 virus concerns. While employment among working women without children has almost returned to prepandemic levels, mothers with school-age children are lagging, Misty Heggeness, economist at the U.S. Census Bureau says. Further, she is skeptical that trend will meaningfully change in September. “I think we’re underestimating the fear people have with the virus,” Heggeness says, adding that it’s plausible some parents will hold back children in the fall if virtual learning is an option and if parents themselves remain reluctant to return to workplaces.

June’s Unemployment numbers

The June jobs report looks almost perfect, with hiring beating Wall Street’s expectations and wages rising. One might be tempted to declare the labor shortage over. But investors shouldn’t take the bait just yet. While a nonfarm payroll increase of 850,000 is undeniably strong, it belies a labor market still plagued with supply problems.

  • First, consider that government hiring rose 193,000 last month. That accounts for the entire headline overshoot versus economists’ expectations. Company payrolls increased 662,000, which would be incredible for normal times. Yet it was still far off the one million mark that economists had anticipated by this point in the recovery, as the economy bursts open and vaccinated consumers spend the trillions of dollars in cash stashed during the pandemic.
  • Second, labor-force participation was flat in June despite better hiring. That rate, 61.6%, is still down 1.7 percentage points from its prepandemic level. The employment-population ratio, which Federal Reserve officials have said they are watching, was also unchanged in June; at 58%, it remains 3.1 percentage points below its prepandemic level.
  • Third, the slowdown in wage growth is deceiving. The 0.3% increase from May looks like a Goldilocks print—enough to drive continued spending without fueling inflation fears that have been building as shortages from labor to chips to food push prices broadly higher.

Hiring is being held back by supply, not demand: On an annualized basis this year, leisure and hospitality wages are up 12.3%, transportation and warehousing pay is up 8%, and retail wages are up 5.5%.

Labor force participation was stagnant in June, reflecting an ongoing labor shortage. The degrees to which transitory factors—generous unemployment benefits, child-care issues, and Covid-19 concerns—are capping hiring and driving up wages won’t be clear for months. Schools need to reopen to resolve child-care issues holding back working parents, and enhanced unemployment pay needs to expire before it becomes clear the extent to which such benefits are keeping workers home.

While about two dozen states either have started cutting or are about to cut the extra $300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration  70% of those unemployed won’t be affected by those early terminations.

References:

  1. https://www.barrons.com/articles/labor-shortage-worse-than-it-looks-51627664401
  2. https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-labor-market-is-out-of-whack-job-openings-hit-record-high-as-hiring-slows-51625679925
  3. https://www.barrons.com/articles/jobs-report-investors-should-be-skeptical-51625267210