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Federal Reserve Policy and the Stock Market

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“Don’t Fight the Fed” is an old market cliché that was very applicable during the longest bull market in US history. It is also very applicable currently as the Fed implemented policies to slow the economy by raising interest rates and selling assets from its balance sheet. ~ Chris Vermeulen, Seeking Alpha

In 1977, the US Congress officially gave the Federal Reserve a multi-part mandate to maximize employment, maintain prices near an acceptable inflation target of around 2%, and moderate long-term interest rates. In general terms, Fed policies are supposed to stimulate the economy when it’s weak and cool it when it’s too hot.

The adage highlights the strong correlation between Federal Reserve policy and the direction of the stock market.

“Don’t Fight the Fed” embodied the sentiment that if the Fed was stimulating the economy with accommodative policies, it made little sense to bet against the market’s bullish trend. Effectively, when the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is loose, markets tend to move higher, volatility is subdued, and investors’ risk is limited, so it makes sense to stay invested and ride the wave. Why “fight the Fed” by selling stocks when it’s on your side?

The Fed held interest rates near zero and instituted a policy called quantitative easing—where it bought mortgage-backed securities and U.S. Treasuries to increase the money supply in hopes of spurring lending and capital investment.

When the Federal Reserve is on a mission to slow the economy down in order to tap down inflation, technology and growth stocks are generally hurt as the cost of capital and borrowing money increases. Thus, the old adage, “Don’t fight the Fed” becomes an important one for investors to abide.

With inflation being persistent in the U.S., Fed officials have taken a new monetary stance that is far less appealing for investors.

The Fed is in Quantitative Tightening mode and has raised interest rates and sold assets from its balance sheet. This calendar year, the Fed has raised interest rates four times and has begun shrinking its balance sheet after years of quantitative easing pushed its holdings to nearly $9 trillion. Its intent is to cool the economy and reduce inflation.

The adage, “Don’t fight the Fed”, is a warning to avoid stocks, or at least to take a more conservative approach to investing.

As a result, investors should take a more cautious approach in this tightening environment and prioritize defensive stocks with pristine balance sheets and steady revenue growth that can survive inflationary pressure.

Inflationary economies tend to punish unprofitable technology and growth companies, despite their potential. Without profits or cash flow, it’s simply too hard to improve quarter over quarter at a time when money becomes more expensive to borrow.

References:

  1. https://www.fortunebuilders.com/best-stocks-to-buy/
  2. https://fortune.com/2022/09/14/dont-fight-the-fed-new-meaning-inflation-economy-dan-niles-satori-fund/amp/
  3. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544537-dont-fight-the-fed

Intrinsic Value

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“Every investment is the present value of all future free cash flow.” Everything Money

Cash flow refers to the net amount of cash and cash equivalents that comes in and goes out of a company. Businesses take in money from sales as revenues and spend money on expenses. Cash received represents inflows, while money spent represents outflows.

“Intrinsic value can be defined simply as the discounted value of cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining lifetime. “ ~ Warren Buffett

A company’s ability to create value for shareholders is fundamentally determined by its ability to generate positive cash flows or, more specifically, to maximize long-term free cash flow (FCF). FCF represents the cash a company generates after accounting for cash outflows to support operations and maintain its capital assets.

Intrinsic value is defined as the discounted present value of all future cash flow of a business.

The only reason to lay out money for an investment now is to get more money later.  When you invest in a bond, its very easy to see the future cash flow and the terminal value of a bond, its printed on the certificate.

When you invest in a stock,

Investing in any financial asset involves laying out cash now in order to get cash later out of the investment.  And investing in a business, can the business deliver enough cash to you (the owner) soon enough that it makes sense to buy it as its current market value?

How much am I willing to pay for a business, considering it makes $24B in cash flow per year, and is growing at 10% annually.

Once we determine the business intrinsic value, we compare that number to the business’ current market capitalization.  Market cap is the product of the total shares outstanding and the current market stock price.

  • Market cap is higher than intrinsic value = overvalued
  • Market cap is lower than intrinsic value = undervalued

Discounted Free Cash Flow since one dollar today is worth more thant $1 in five years due to opportunity costs and lost of purchasing power of that dollar.

  • Step 1:  Find the current free cash flow – Free cash flow is the amount of money left over for the owners of the business, after factoring in cash outflows that support its operations and maintain its capital assets. The ideal FCF for valuation would equal Operating Cash Flow minu Maintenance CapEx
  • Step 2:  Grow the current free cash flow out 10 years in the future – the growth rate used will have a big impact on the final intrinsic value calculation. Check historical growth rate for cash flow and industry growth rate for cash flow.  Or, look at trend and future capital investments.
  • Step 3:  Add a terminal value – what you can sell the business for in 10 years.  Use FCF multiple.
  • Step 4:  Discount all future cash flows to present value at a rate of 12% to 15%
  • Step 5:  Add together all future cash flows to find intrinsic value
  • Step 6:  Add a margin of safety (of 20% to 30%)

In the current market environment, most companies will be trading above the intrinsic value.

References:

  1. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/freecashflow.asp

10 Cyber Security Tips for Small Business

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Information technology and high-speed Internet are great enablers of small business success, but with the benefits comes the need to guard against growing cyber threats, thefts, malware, ransomware and scams. ~ Federal Communications Commission (FCC)

The Internet allows small businesses to reach new and larger markets and provides opportunities to work more efficiently by using computer-based tools.

Whether a company is thinking of adopting cloud computing or just using email and maintaining a website, cybersecurity should be a priority and part of the plan.

Theft of digital information has become the most commonly reported fraud, surpassing physical theft.

Every business that uses the Internet is responsible for and must implement measures to create a culture of security that will enhance business and consumer confidence. This starts with creating a cyber plan.

In short, small businesses want to keep their cyber infrastructure running and their critical assets secure from cyber criminals. However, the chaos of rapidly changing technology and evolving cyber threats can create frustrating obstacles to your business—or introduce new growth opportunities!

Based on what your business wants to achieve in cyber security, there are best practices you should be doing to increase your chances of success. There are several security practices rank most effective, and which are making the making difference.

10 Cyber Security Tips for Small Business

Broadband and information technology are powerful factors in small businesses reaching new markets and increasing productivity and efficiency. However, businesses need a cybersecurity strategy to protect their own business, their customers, and their data from growing cybersecurity threats.

1. Train employees in security principles

Establish basic security practices and policies for employees, such as requiring strong passwords, and establish appropriate Internet use guidelines that detail penalties for violating company cybersecurity policies. Establish rules of behavior describing how to handle and protect customer information and other vital data.

2. Protect information, computers, and networks from cyber attacks

Keep clean machines: having the latest security software, web browser, and operating system are the best defenses against viruses, malware, and other online threats. Set antivirus software to run a scan after each update. Install other key software updates as soon as they are available.

3. Provide firewall security for your Internet connection

A firewall is a set of related programs that prevent outsiders from accessing data on a private network. Make sure the operating system’s firewall is enabled or install free firewall software available online. If employees work from home, ensure that their home system(s) are protected by a firewall.

4. Create a mobile device action plan

Mobile devices can create significant security and management challenges, especially if they hold confidential information or can access the corporate network. Require users to password-protect their devices, encrypt their data, and install security apps to prevent criminals from stealing information while the phone is on public networks. Be sure to set reporting procedures for lost or stolen equipment.

5. Make backup copies of important business data and information

Regularly backup the data on all computers. Critical data includes word processing documents, electronic spreadsheets, databases, financial files, human resources files, and accounts receivable/payable files. Backup data automatically if possible, or at least weekly and store the copies either offsite or in the cloud.

6. Control physical access to your computers and create user accounts for each employee

Prevent access or use of business computers by unauthorized individuals. Laptops can be particularly easy targets for theft or can be lost, so lock them up when unattended. Make sure a separate user account is created for each employee and require strong passwords. Administrative privileges should only be given to trusted IT staff and key personnel.

7. Secure your Wi-Fi networks

If you have a Wi-Fi network for your workplace, make sure it is secure, encrypted, and hidden. To hide your Wi-Fi network, set up your wireless access point or router, so it does not broadcast the network name, known as the Service Set Identifier (SSID). Password protect access to the router.

8. Employ best practices on payment cards

Work with banks or processors to ensure the most trusted and validated tools and anti-fraud services are being used. You may also have additional security obligations pursuant to agreements with your bank or processor. Isolate payment systems from other, less secure programs and don’t use the same computer to process payments and surf the Internet.

9. Limit employee access to data and information, limit authority to install software

Do not provide any one employee with access to all data systems. Employees should only be given access to the specific data systems that they need for their jobs, and should not be able to install any software without permission.

10. Passwords and authentication

Require employees to use unique passwords and change passwords every three months. Consider implementing multi-factor authentication that requires additional information beyond a password to gain entry. Check with your vendors that handle sensitive data, especially financial institutions, to see if they offer multi-factor authentication for your account.

When it comes to cybersecurity, training and transparency are key. All users have a responsibility, and if they embraced their responsibility, security in the cyberspace would be easier to achieve.

If the non-technical managers and leaders understood the impact of good and poor cybersecurity, they would use the cyber assets they have more responsibly. The workforce would be more careful about the devices they introduce to the network.

For more information, please download the cybersecurity tip sheet.

References:

  1. https://www.fcc.gov/cyberplanner
  2. https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/my attachmatch/DOC-306595A1.pdf
  3. https://www.fcc.gov/communications-business-opportunities/cybersecurity-small-businesses

Assessing Small Capital Companies

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Historically, small-cap stocks have been shown to outperform the rest of the market because of greater growth opportunities. A massive company is limited by its existing size. ~ U.S. News and World Report

Small cap company pundits recommend that investors review several key financial metrics and ratios to properly evaluate small cap companies. Following these metrics and ratios, you will be well on your way to finding a few hidden gems in the small cap market.

Each small cap company should be evaluated on fundamental factors to identify which ones can exhibit durable long-term growth.

  • Growth measures include revenue growth rate;
  • Profitability measures include operating profit and earnings per-share; and
  • Capital efficiency measures include return on invested capital.

In short, investors should seek to invest in the top-tier of eligible small cap companies .

Here are seven key metrics that should be reviewed before buying any stock. These indicators should help you get most of the way in understanding a company, its operations, and its underlying business.

1. Institutional activity. Pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds, insurance companies and corporations that buy and sell huge blocks of shares can create tremendous volatility in prices. To lessen this risk in your investments, try to buy shares in companies where institutions own less than 40% of their shares.

2. Analyst coverage . Another indication of future share volatility is the number of Wall Street analysts covering a stock. Analysts – like the big institutions – have a herd mentality. When one sells, so do the rest, resulting in great numbers of shares changing hands, and usually leading to price declines. It’s best to avoid companies with more than 10, or fewer than 2 analysts following them. (You need some analyst interest or you may be waiting a long time for price appreciation, even in the strongest and most undervalued company) .

3. Price-earnings ratio (P/E) . The price of one share of a company’s stock divided by four quarters of its earnings per share, the P/E ratio is of utmost importance in determining if a company’s shares are over- or under-valued. For the best perspective, go to Reuters , then select Ratios and compare the current P/E of the company to its average P/E for the last 3-5 years, to its estimated future P/E and to the average P/E of its industry or sector. One note: If a company’s P/E is more than 35, it might be too pricy. You may want to stick with companies that are trading at lower P/Es, particularly if you are fairly new to investing.

4. Cash flow. One of the most important parts of a financial report is its Statement of Cash Flows, which is a summary of how the company made and spent its money. The Total Cash Flow From Operating Activities represents the cash the company took in from its primary business operations.

It’s important that this number be positive, or at least trending positive over the course of a year. After all, if the business isn’t making money from its primary product – not from investing in real estate or the stock market – then you probably want to pass it by.

5. Debt/equity. This ratio is how much debt per dollar of ownership the business has incurred. Compare the firm’s historic debt/equity ratios, so you can find out if its debt level over the past few years has been rising too rapidly. Debt isn’t bad, as long as it is used as a springboard to grow sales and earnings. Next, contrast the company’s ratio with its competitors and its industry so you can further determine if your company’s debt position is reasonable.

6. Growing sales and income. One rule of thumb is to buy shares in companies whose sales and net income are growing at double-digit rates. I cannot emphasize this enough, as, appreciation in stock prices is generally precipitated by growth in earnings (which usually follows expansion of sales) . It’s certainly possible to buy stock in a company that has no earnings growth (a new business, or a tech company in the late 90’s, for example) and still make money on the shares – short-term – but it’s not a formula for serious, successful long-term investing.

7. Insider activity. Investors will also want to review the buying and selling activities of a company’s insiders – its top officers and directors. A sudden rush to sell large quantities of the firm’s shares may be a good indicator that the business is falling on rough times. Likewise, a large increase in purchases may mean good news is on the way.

No single financial metric or ratio will determine the validity or potential of your investment. It is of utmost importance that you take a complete look at a company’s financial strength and its future growth prospects, by conducting a thorough analysis – over time – usually a 3-5 year track-record.

Many small caps stay small because they have structural problems, management lacks the capability to grow the business, or their niche simply isn’t large enough to support a bigger enterprise.

In contrast, many small cap companies can graduate to greater things, earning shareholders tremendous returns along the way.

References:

  1. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/seven-critical-factors-evaluating-small-cap-stocks-2011-06-28
  2. https://money.usnews.com/investing/slideshows/9-of-the-best-small-cap-stocks-to-buy-for-2023

Warren Buffett: Morgan Housel’s Viewpoint

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“Compounding doesn’t rely on earning big returns. Merely good returns sustained uninterrupted for the longest period of time—especially in times of chaos and havoc—will always win.” ― Morgan Housel, The Psychology of Money: Timeless lessons on wealth, greed, and happiness

More than 2,000 books are dedicated to how Warren Buffett built his fortune. Many of them are wonderful. But few pay enough attention to the simplest fact:

Buffett’s fortune isn’t due to just being a good investor, but being a good investor since he was literally a child, writes Morgan Housel in his seminal book, The Psychology of Money: Timeless lessons on wealth, greed, and happiness.

Warren Buffett’s estimated net worth is $110 billion as of November 2022. Of that, $109.2 billion was accumulated after his 50th birthday. $107.5 billion came after he qualified for Social Security, in his mid-60s. Warren Buffett is a phenomenal investor.

But you miss a key point if you attach all of his success to investing acumen. The real key to his success is that he’s been a phenomenal investor for three quarters of a century.

Had he started investing in his 30s and retired in his 60s, few people would have ever heard of him. Consider a little thought experiment. Buffett began serious investing when he was 10 years old. By the time he was 30 he had a net worth of $1 million, or $9.3 million adjusted for inflation.16

What if he was a more normal person, spending his teens and 20s exploring the world and finding his passion, and by age 30 his net worth was, say, $25,000? And let’s say he still went on to earn the extraordinary annual investment returns he’s been able to generate (22% annually), but quit investing and retired at age 60 to play golf and spend time with his grandkids. What would a rough estimate of his net worth be today? Not $110 billion. $11.9 million. 99.9% less than his actual net worth.

Effectively all of Warren Buffett’s financial success can be tied to the financial base he built in his pubescent years and the longevity he maintained in his geriatric years. If you had invested $10,000 with Warren Buffett in 1966, today you would have over $160 million! That same $10,000 invested in the S&P would be $140,000.

Buffett’s skill is investing, but his secret is time. That’s how compounding works. Think of this another way. Buffett is considered by many to be the most famous and successful investor in history. But he’s not necessarily the greatest—at least not when measured by average annual returns.

“Doing well with money isn’t necessarily about what you know. It’s about how you behave. And behavior is hard to teach, even to really smart people.” ~ Morgan Housel

References:

  1. Morgan Housel, The Psychology of Money: Timeless lessons on wealth, greed, and happiness., Harriman House, September 8, 2020.
  2. https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/65374007-the-psychology-of-money
  3. https://www.celebritynetworth.com/richest-businessmen/richest-billionaires/warren-buffett-net-worth/

CME Group CEO called Bankman-Fried ‘an absolute fraud’

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“When you have the greatest quarterback of all time and a supermodel wife doing a commercial picking up the phone saying ‘Are you in, are you in, are you in.’ To me, it looks like a pump-and-dump scheme. People get very influenced by people like Tom [Brady].” ~ Terry Duffy, CME Group Chairman and CEO

FTX’s sudden and catastrophic collapse sent reverberations throughout the entire cryptocurrency industry. What was once the third-largest cryptocurrency exchange has filed for bankruptcy and has billions of dollars left in limbo.

FTX is a cryptocurrency exchange headquartered in the Bahamas. The exchange allowed users buy, sell, hold, and trade cryptocurrency (although those functions are currently unavailable due to the firm’s collapse as a result of FTX founder and CEO Sam Bankman-Fried’s fraud and misappropriation of its customers’ accounts), writes The Verge.

CME Group Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy suspected the fraud at the cryptocurrency exchange the day of his first one-on-one meeting with Bankman-Fried, stated during an interview with Melissa Lee on CNBC Fast Money.

Duffy recounted his March 2022 meeting with Bankman-Fried on the “On the Tape” podcast, which is hosted by “Fast Money” traders Guy Adami and Dan Nathan.

“You’re a fraud. You’re an absolute fraud,” Duffy said he told Bankman-Fried. Moreover, he tried to warn Congress and the financial sector that the disgraced FTX billionaire Bankman-Fried was a “fraud.”

Additionally, Duffy wanted to know why the Commodities Futures Trading Commission was even considering Bankman-Fried’s request to ease regulatory rules to push his trading model. He was told it was required under innovation guidelines.

“Right away my suspicions were up,” Duffy said. “Why is there so much pressure coming for this application? And then when I met with him, I knew right away this a joke.”

The FTX collapse is the biggest cryptocurrency exchange bankruptcy on record.

Duffy alleges that a former senior executive of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CTFC) was closely aligned with Bankman-Fried. “I hope someone has the courage to ask, ‘Was anybody putting pressure on the CFTC to move forward with an application that could have put everything at risk?’” Duffy said.

The former CEO Bankman-Fried is facing a barrage of civil and reportedly criminal investigations after allegedly transferring billions in customer funds from FTX, the crypto trading platform he founded in 2019, to Alameda Research, a crypto trading firm he founded in 2017.

References:

  1. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/23/absolute-fraud-cmes-terry-duffy-says-he-saw-trouble-before-ftx-collapse-.html
  2. https://www.foxnews.com/media/sam-bankman-fried-easy-pick-out-fraud-cme-group-chief-terry-duffy

“Any time there is a boom cycle like this, otherwise smart investors do dumb things because they see their pals and peers piling in and worry they will be left out. Envy is a pernicious quality — and one that is all too human.” ~ Andrew Ross Sorkin

Never Let Yourself Be Defeated

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“You may encounter many defeats, but you must not be defeated. In fact, it may be necessary to encounter the defeats, so you can know who you are, what you can rise from, how you can still come out of it.”

― Maya Angelou

“Winners are not those who never lose, they are the ones who never quit.”

Sometimes you may not win. But that is not your defeat. You are defeated only when you accept it. You must never accept your defeat at the first occurrence. In the game of baseball, if a batter swings and misses the first pitch, it doesn’t mean that he is out.

Small Cap Investing

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A focus on finding small cap companies with great fundamentals and big growth prospects.

A small-cap stock is a stock of a publicly-traded company whose market capitalization ranges from $300 million to approximately $2 billion, explains Corporate Finance Institute. The word “cap” in this term refers to a company’s market capitalization.

Savvy investors cannot afford to overlook small-cap growth companies. Although, there are several pros and cons of investing in small-cap stocks that must be considered.

Small-cap companies, in general, tend not to get the same kind of publicity as their large-cap siblings. They aren’t going to lead a segment on CNBC or the home page of the Wall Street Journal on a daily basis.

With smaller market capitalizations, small-cap companies tend to fly under the radar.

The Rise of Small-Cap Stocks

Reasons that people may invest in small-cap companies are capital appreciation — they think the stock price will go up and dividends — where the company pays you to hold it.

But some of these are solid companies and excellent small-cap stocks to buy.

Small-cap equities are more sensitive to the economy (inflation, rising interest rates and dollar strength), so a robust economic rebound would favor them.

Small-cap stocks are popular among investors because of their potential for providing better returns in the long term relative to their large-cap peers.

The advantages of investing in small-cap stocks are:

1. Growth potential – Relative to bigger companies, small-cap companies show significantly higher growth potential. For small-cap companies, it is easier to grow significantly their operational and financial base than is the case for most large-cap stocks.

Picking the right small-cap stock can turn into a profitable investment.

2. High probability of inefficiencies in the market – Information about the small-cap stocks is harder to find compared to large and mid-cap companies. Analysts typically give little attention to these companies; thus, there is a high probability of improper pricing of small-cap stocks. This situation creates vast opportunities for investors to leverage the inefficiencies in market pricing and earn a great return on their investments.

3. Financial institutions do not push prices up – Financial institutions, including mutual and hedge funds, should comply with certain regulations that do not allow them to invest heavily in small-cap stocks. For this reason, it is unlikely that the stock price will be artificially pushed up because of large investments from major financial institutions.

Nevertheless, there are some disadvantages of investing in small-cap stocks:

1. High risk – Investing in small-cap stocks involves higher risk. First, small-cap companies may have an unreliable and faulty business model which can result in company’s management not being able to adjust the business model, and can result in poor operational and financial results. And, small-cap companies usually have less access to new capital and new sources of financing. Due to this reason, it is more likely that the company will not be able to bridge gaps in its cash flows or expand the business because of the inability to undertake the necessary investments.

2. Low liquidity – Small-cap stocks are less liquid than their large counterparts. Low liquidity results in the potential unavailability of the stock at a good price to purchase or it may be difficult to sell the stocks at a favorable price. Low liquidity also adds to the overall risk of the stock.

3. Time-consuming – Investing in small-cap stocks can be a time-consuming activity. Due to the under-coverage of small-cap stocks by financial media, institutions and analysts, the amount of available research on small-cap companies is usually limited.

Moreover, small cap technology and all small cap stocks are discounted to a great degree by investors in a rising interest rate environment, purely due to the fact that they have the bulk of potential earnings and cash flow far out into the future. The higher long-term rates are, the less those future earnings and cash flow are worth. This goes for virtually all unprofitable growth tech stocks.

Essentially, small-cap stocks may provide investors with an opportunity to earn a substantial return on their investments. However, this type of investing should be approached with caution as small-cap stocks are often risky and volatile.

References:

  1. https://investorplace.com/2022/11/7-excellent-small-cap-stocks-to-buy-before-this-year-ends/
  2. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/wealth-management/small-cap-stock/
  3. https://news.yahoo.com/10-best-small-cap-stocks-140302020.html

Tongue is Like a Rudder on a Ship

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The tongue is like the rudder of a ship in that it steers a person’s life in the same way the rudder steers a ship. Even in the midst of fierce winds and strong currents, the rudder is powerful enough to steer the ship. In the same way, no matter the circumstances, the tongue is powerful enough to steer a person’s life. 

In life, your tongue steers and determines your life. Words spoken by your tongue determine the direction and the destination of your life, just like the rudder of a ship determines the direction a ship will go.

Words may not cause you to arrive at the destination immediately, but they head you in that direction, and eventually, if you continue in that direction, you will arrive there.

Your words are very powerful. Even when it seems that circumstances are against you, your tongue holds more power than the circumstances.

If you want to change the circumstances and the direction your life is headed, then change the words you are speaking! Your words are very powerful. 

But this principle can also work against you. If you are a person who says things like “I always get sick, nothing good ever happens to me, etc”, then you are likely seeing those things as reality in your life. 

If you want to change your circumstances, change your thoughts and the words that are coming out of your mouth. If you want to see good days, learn to control the thoughts you are thinking and to choose carefully the words you are speaking. 

People who don’t understand the power of words are constantly saying things that they don’t really mean, and they train their bodies not to believe or take their words seriously. Therefore, when it comes time to rebuke sickness or command healing, their bodies don’t respond the way they should.  

Start controlling your tongue by speaking the word of positivity and victory out loud. This will train your thoughts and tongue to speak goodness and positivity, even in contrary circumstances. Start to think about the words you speak. Your life will get better and better and you will begin to see the good and positivity become a reality in your life!

Pay attention to your words and to your conversations with others understanding that what you are saying is actually directing and steering your life. The Bible says in James 3:4-5; “Look at the ships also: though they are so large and are driven by strong winds, they are guided by a very small rudder wherever the will of the pilot directs. So also the tongue is a small member, yet it boasts of great things.”

Whom you are is an expression of your inner dialogue. Your ‘inner dialogue’ is quite simply your thoughts. It is the little voice in your head that comments on your life, whether that is what is going on around you, or what you are thinking consciously or sub-consciously. All of us have an internal dialogue, and it runs all the time.

It’s essential that you observe the tone you use in your internal dialogue. Adopt the type of tone that a loved one would use if they were reassuring you. Or reflect on how you would speak to someone who was struggling with something. Work to speak calmly and compassionately to yourself, even when you hit a setback.

Speaking creates how you think, how you move, where you go. Talk to yourself or have dialogue with yourself in such a way that brings you into action, doing and being the things that you want.

The ultimate direction your life takes will be determined by how well you control your tongue. Perfectly controlling your speech is tough work, but the payoff will be immense. A warm tone helps you accept yourself just as you are. Everyone has limitations, and accepting yourself and controlling your tongue, limitations and all, leads to setting the correct course and heading in the right direction.

References:

  1. https://sbnonline.com/article/the-tongue-is-like-a-rudder-on-a-ship/
  2. https://walkwiththewise.org/how-is-the-tongue-like-the-rudder-of-a-ship/
  3. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/having-sex-wanting-intimacy/201707/the-power-your-internal-dialogue

EBITDA

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EBITDA, (or Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization), is an accounting term that is an alternative way to measure a company’s profitability.

EBITDA is simply an acronym:

To calculate EBITDA, you start with Net Income (also known as Earnings). Then you add back Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization

EBITDA is a Non-GAAP number, meaning it doesn’t comply with “Generally Accepted Accounting Principles” For that reason, you won’t see it on many companies’ financial statements. However, some management teams do provide it and focus on it heavily.

Amortization & Depreciation are the accounting process of writing down the value of an asset over time:

  • Depreciation is the accounting method used to allocate the cost of a TANGIBLE asset over its useful life. A TANGIBLE asset is something you can physically touch (house, car, factory). Depreciation represents how much of a tangible asset’s value has been “used up”.
  • Amortization is the accounting process of writing down the value of a loan or an INTANGIBLE asset. It’s VERY similar to depreciation, but amortization happens to “Intangible” assets, which are assets that you can’t physically touch (patents, trademarks, goodwill).

Although Wall Street might love EBITDA, many investors do not. Why? EBITDA can be very misleading. Ignoring “depreciation” as an expense is a big reason why, as Buffett explained in 2017.

References:

  1. https://www.fool.com/author/14471/

Investment strategy is to buy and hold for the long-term high-quality companies, and then let compounding work its magic.