“You have to learn how to value businesses and know the ones that are within your circle of competence and the ones that are outside.” Warren Buffett
Research shows that most active investors underperform the market over the long-term, according to CNBC. In reality, profitable day traders make up a very small proportion of all traders. Only 1.6% of all day traders are profitable in an average year, according to an Haas School of Business University of California, Berkeley, study. This means that’s roughly ninety-nine out of every one-hundred day traders fail and lose money. And, “overconfidence can explain high trading levels and the resulting poor performance of individual investors,” Brad M. Barber and Terrance Odean of the University of California, Berkeley concluded.
These facts makes it clear that the odds are stacked against the ordinary retail trader or investor. Thus, you have to tread carefully if you want to achieve success over the long term.
Building an investment framework
Multitudes of successful investors, including both Berkshire-Hathaway’s billionaires Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, believe it is essential to avoid high-risk equity investments at all costs. This means avoiding investments and businesses that have a high chance of failure. It also means avoiding any companies that are difficult to understand or fall outside of your circle of competence.
Following a few basic guidelines can help any investor avoid significant losses from struggling and failing companies.
Another piece of investing advice is not to overpay for companies. If you don’t understand the value or how to value a business, then that is a pretty clear indication that it does not fall inside your circle of confidence, and thus, it might be better to avoid the investment. Buffett believes that the market will eventually favor quality stocks that were undervalued (margin of safety) for a certain time.
Finally, investors shouldn’t rush to get rich quick and they should follow an investment plan and rules. Investors who rush to get rich tend to take unnecessary risks such as borrowing money to purchase stocks, buying stocks they don’t understand or allocating capital to opportunities that seem too good to be true. Moreover, research continues to show that investors who stick with a comprehensive long-term investing plan tend to outperform those who collect stocks and constantly jump in and out of the market. All of these actions can lead to significant losses.
The key investment principle of not being in a rush helps ensure you’re not rushing into anything you don’t understand or taking on too much risk. In short, being patient and not rushing into investments is a very low-tech and straightforward way of trying to eliminate mistakes.
By following this advice, an investor may be able to improve their process and outcome.
In the words of arguably the world’s most successful long-term investor, Buffett states, “We expect to hold these securities for a long time. In fact, when we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever.”
References:
- https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/Day%20Traders/Day%20Trading%20and%20Learning%20110217.pdf
- https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/20/attention-robinhood-power-users-most-day-traders-lose-money.html