Category Archives: Building Wealth

Value Investing: The 4 Ms of Investing

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“The one and only secret to stockpiling is to make sure the value of the business is substantially greater than the price you are paying for it. If you get this right, you cannot help but get rich.” ~ Phil Town

Value investing is a strategy that focuses on investing in individual assets, but not just any asset, assets in wonderful companies or real estate that are priced well below their value, explains Phil Town, founder and CEO of Rule 1 Investing.

Value investing aims to reduce risk by increasing understanding of what you’re investing in order to make wiser investment decisions, and purchasing it at a price that gives you a margin of safety.

  • Value investing is a focused, disciplined and patient strategy, it’s a buy-and-hold for the long-term strategy. You need to be disciplined, patient and keep your focus on long-term profits.
  • It’s about making investing decisions based on the intrinsic value of a company, or what it’s actually worth, which is not to be confused with its sticker or market price.
  • A key component of value investing is buying stocks at the right time, and the right time will present itself if you remain focused, disciplined and patient.
  • The value investor isn’t swayed by the general public’s reaction or market fear. Fear can make people sell too early or miss an excellent opportunity to buy. But, the value investor decides when to buy or sell based on a wonderful company’s intrinsic value, not based on the prevailing fear or greed in the stock market.

Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP)

Value investors focuses on finding companies that were both undervalued and are what you might call “wonderful companies” with a high potential for growth. Thus, it wasn’t enough for a company to just be undervalued. Instead, the best companies to invest in were ones that were both undervalued and wonderful companies.

To spot undervalued companies, it’s also important to ensure that the companies you are investing in are high-quality and can retain their value throughout the time that you are holding them. Phil Town likes to evaluate whether or not a business is a quality company with what he calls the 4 Ms of Investing: Meaning, Management, Moat, and Margin of Safety.

If you can check off each of these 4 Ms for a company you are considering investing in, it will be well worth your while.

Meaning

The company should have meaning to you. This is important because if it has meaning to you, you understand what it does and how it works and makes money, and will be more likely to do the research necessary to understand all elements of the business that affect its value.

Management

The company needs to have solid management. Perform a background check on the leaders in charge of guiding the company, paying close attention to the integrity and success of their prior decisions to determine if they are good, solid leaders that will take the company in the right direction.

Moat

The company should have a moat. A moat is something that separates them from the competition and, thus, protects them. If a company has patented technology, control over the market, an impenetrable brand, or a product or service customers would never switch from, it has a moat.

Margin of Safety

In order to guarantee good returns, you must buy a company at a price that gives you a margin of safety. For Rule #1 investors, 50% is the margin of safety to look for, explains Town. This provides a buffer that makes it possible to still experience gains even if problems arise. This is arguably the most important.

These 4Ms draw heavily from the rules of value investing. Both sets of rules dictate that you must buy a company below its actual value in order to make a profit. That’s the bottom line.

Even if a company is in a great position today, it needs to have future potential to triple or 10x your investment. The market cap is a reflection of what you would pay today to own a piece of the company. But the market price is not the true value of the company.

You, as a value investor, should rely on the “intrinsic value” to determine whether a company is a worthy value investment. Then, you can use the market cap to help you determine if the company is on sale and if it has the growth potential.

References:

  1. https://wp.ruleoneinvesting.com/blog/how-to-invest/value-investing/
  2. https://www.ruleoneinvesting.com/blog/financial-control/market-capitalization/

Phil Town is an investment advisor, hedge fund manager, and 3x NY Times Best-Selling Author. Phil’s goal is to help you learn how to invest and achieve financial independence.

More Than One in Four Americans Say Their Debt is Unmanageable

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Nearly one in five Americans are feeling bad or very bad about their financial circumstances. ~ OppFi’s 2022 Personal Finance Study

The FinTech company, OppFi, surveyed nearly 1,100 Americans to learn more about Americans’ financial situations,.

Respondents had mixed and uncertain feelings about where they stood financially, with nearly one in five feeling bad or very bad about their circumstances.

Key takeaways

  • Half of respondents to the survey are currently in debt, and 52% of those in debt say their debt is not manageable.
  • Just over 1 in 3 respondents have frequently experienced stress or anxiety about their finances since the COVID-19 pandemic started.
  • 1 in 4 took out a personal loan during the COVID-19 pandemic, most often to cover basic necessities such as food, clothing, and housing and credit card debt.

Americans’ financial health is often measured by benchmarks such as debt, savings, spending habits, and the ability to pay their monthly bills, writes Ashley Altus, CFC, a personal finance writer for OppU. OppFi survey respondents reported having difficulty with many of these things. Half said they’re in debt, and nearly half said they can’t pay their bills on time. Almost 2 in 5 live paycheck to paycheck, and 1 in 5 said they spend more than what they earn.

Budgeting is widely considered an important aspect of personal finance, but 1 in 10 said they didn’t have a budget at all.

Fewer than half (47%) said they have a savings account or emergency fund. Of those who did, nearly 1 in 5 said they could live off it for three weeks at the most.

How COVID-19 impacted Americans’ financial situations

The COVID-19 pandemic threw the American economy into chaos, with numerous businesses closing. In April 2020, the unemployment rate reached a level not seen since the 1930s. Near the end of 2021, 10 million households were behind on rent despite three rounds of stimulus checks.

More than half the people we surveyed said the pandemic worsened their financial situation. The biggest reason? Employment – more than 1 in 5 were working fewer hours and 15% lost their job. Others cited their own illness (17%), and 15% said their credit score decreased.

Financial stressors

One result of financial difficulty may be stress. Just over 1 in 3 respondents said they have frequently experienced stress or anxiety related to their finances since COVID started, with the most common stressor being paying bills other than mortgage or rent (cited by 35%). Debt was identified as a source of stress by 28% and 26% were stressed about not having enough savings.

Other stressors included basics like having enough food, high energy or gasoline prices, and paying mortgage or rent. Financial anxieties also reach as far as retirement, with more than 1 in 10 saying they’re worried they won’t have enough to retire on.

References:

  1. https://www.opploans.com/oppu/articles/personal-finance-study-2022/

6 Common Causes of Recessions

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“A soft landing is impossible. The economy is going to go into a recession fast. You’re going to see the economy just screech to a halt. That’s what the Fed needs to do to get inflation down.” ~ Mike Novogratz, Galaxy Digital CEO

The causes of recessions can vary greatly, according to the FinTech company Sofi. Generally speaking, recessions happen when something causes a loss of confidence among businesses and consumers. The recession that occurred in 2020 could be considered an outlier, as it was mainly sparked by an external global health event rather than internal economic causes.

The mechanics behind a typical recession work like this: consumers lose confidence and stop spending, driving down demand for goods and services. As a result, the economy shifts from growth to contraction. This can, in turn, lead to job losses, a slowdown in borrowing, and a continued decline in consumer spending.

According to SoFi, here are some common causes of recessions:

1. High Interest Rates

High interest rates make borrowing money more expensive, limiting the amount of money available to spend and invest. In the past, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to protect the value of the dollar or prevent the economy from overheating, which has, at times, resulted in a recession.

For example, the 1970s saw a period of stagnant growth and inflation that came to be known as “stagflation.” To fight it, the Fed raised interest rates throughout the decade, which created the recessions between 1980 and 1982.

2. Falling Housing Prices

If housing demand falls, so does the value of people’s homes. Homeowners may no longer be able to tap their house’s equity. As a result, homeowners may have less money in their pockets to spend, reducing consumption in the economy.

3. Stock Market Crash

A stock market crash occurs when a stock market index drops severely. If it falls by at least 20%, it enters what is known as a “bear market.” Stock market crashes can result in a recession since individual investors’ net worth declines, causing them to reduce spending because of a negative wealth effect. It can also cut into confidence among businesses, causing them to spend and hire less.

As stock prices drop, businesses may also face less access to capital and may produce less. They may have to lay off workers, whose ability to spend is curtailed. As this pattern continues, the economy may contract into recession.

4. Reduction in Real Wages

Real wages describe how much income an individual makes when adjusted for inflation. In other words, it represents how far consumer income can go in terms of the goods and services it can purchase.

When real wages shrink, a recession can begin. Consumers can lose confidence when they realize their income isn’t keeping up with inflation, leading to less spending and economic slowdown.

5. Bursting Bubbles

Asset bubbles are to blame for some of the most significant recessions in U.S. history, including the stock market bubble in the 1920s, the tech bubble in the 1990s, and the housing bubble in the 2000s.

An asset bubble occurs when the price of an asset, such as stock, bonds, commodities, and real estate, quickly rises without actual value in the asset to justify the rise.

As prices rise, new investors jump in, hoping to take advantage of the rapidly growing market. Yet, when the bubble bursts — for example, if demand runs out — the market can collapse, eventually leading to recession.

6. Deflation

Deflation is a widespread drop in prices, which an oversupply of goods and services can cause. This oversupply can result in consumers and businesses saving money rather than spending it. This is because consumers and businesses would rather wait to purchase goods and services that may be lower in price in the future. As demand falls and people spend less, a recession can follow due to the contraction in consumption and economic activity.

How Do Recessions Affect You?

Businesses may have fewer customers when the economy begins to slow down because consumers have less real income to spend. So they institute layoffs as a cost-cutting measure, which means unemployment rates rise.

As more people lose their jobs, they have less to spend on discretionary items, which means fewer sales and lower revenue for businesses. Individuals who can keep their jobs may choose to save their money rather than spend it, leading to less revenue for businesses.

Investors may see the value of their portfolios shrink if a recession triggers stock market volatility. Homeowners may also see a decline in their home’s equity if home values drop because of a recession.

When consumer spending declines, corporate earnings start to shrink. If a business doesn’t have enough resources to weather the storm, it may have to file for bankruptcy.

Governments and central banks will often do what they can to head off recession through monetary or fiscal stimulus to boost employment and spending. “It’s hard to not underestimate the huge impact that the response to COVID-19 had on all assets. We pumped so much liquidity into the markets it was crazy, we had never seen anything like it. We were throwing trillions of dollars around like matchsticks,” said Mike Novogratz, Galaxy Digital CEO.

Central banks, like the Federal Reserve, can provide monetary policy stimulus. The Fed can lower interest rates, which reduces the cost of borrowing. As more people borrow, there’s more money in circulation and more incentive to spend and invest.

Source: https://www.sofi.com/learn/content/what-is-a-recession/

Dividend Growth Stocks

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Dividend-growth stocks typically exhibit stable earnings, solid fundamentals and strong histories of profit and growth.

Dividend Growth companies are companies that have consistently grown their dividends over the long-term, such as for at least 15 consecutive years. According to ProShares, these companies generally come with attributes of quality that investors have come to expect:

  • Durable competitive advantages, solid fundamentals, and management teams that are committed to returning capital to shareholders.
  • Higher gross and net profit margins than the broader index, with more consistent levels of earnings growth through the market’s ups and downs.
  • Lower levels of debt than companies in the broader market index.

Dividend growers have also demonstrated a history of weathering market turbulence over time. They’ve done so by delivering most of the market’s upside in rising markets with considerably less of the downside in falling ones—a valuable feature in times of uncertainty.

“Dividend growth stocks have outperformed in various market environments,” according to global investment management firm Nuveen. “Dividend growth stocks have provided an attractive combination of earnings and cash flow growth potential, healthy balance sheets and sustainable dividend policies. These stocks have historically offered compelling performance during up markets and provided a buffer during market drawdowns and in volatile environments.”

When the Federal Reserve shifts from an accommodative monetary easing policy to a restrictive monetary policy, there is often an initial period of market volatility and uncertainty.

Dividend growth has been a desirable trait for equities immediately before, during, and after past cycles of less accommodative Fed policy.

Many investing gurus recommend strong dividend payers as the way to weather dual challenges of inflation and recession, noting that the dividend stocks’ income streams are capable of offsetting inflation – even when inflation is running higher than 8%.

“Dividend growth is one of the few things that has kept up with inflation as you go back and look over the decades. So when you go back and you look at the ’70s, ’80s — which is the last time you can actually find any notable inflation — what you see is dividend growth pretty much kept pace with it,” explained Sharon Hill, the co-leader of Vanguard’s Equity Income Fund.

With the three challenges facing investors today—rising interest rates, slowing economic growth and income scarcity–dividend growth stocks could make a better choice for the current economic and market environment.

Source: ProShares, Bloomberg. Data from 12/31/05 to 12/31/21. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Index calculations do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged, and one cannot invest in an index.

High-quality companies that have consistently grown their dividends tend to have stable earnings, solid fundamentals and strong histories of profit and growth. As a result, they have been generally better positioned to weather potentially slowing growth.

References:

  1. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investing-whiz-sharon-hill-says-155244449.html
  2. https://www.fidelity.com/insights/investing-ideas/10-dividend-growth-stocks
  3. https://www.proshares.com/browse-all-insights/insights/three-reasons-dividend-growth-may-be-the-right-approach
  4. https://www.proshares.com/browse-all-insights/insights/why-dividend-growth-mid-caps-may-belong-in-your-portfolio

Wealth is what you don’t see

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“Spending money to show people how much money you have is the fastest way to have less money.” ~ Morgan Housel, The Psychology of Money

The definition of wealth, in its simplest form, is the total value of assets that are owned by an individual. Wealth is also defined as a person’s Net Worth. This is calculated by adding up all the assets and subtracting all the liabilities.

Wealth means different things to different people. The first and most obvious definition of wealth is owning appreciable and income producing assets. On the other hand, wealth can mean to some people the ability to travel wherever you want, and to do things on your own schedule. But chances are, everybody has a completely different definition of wealth.

Wealth is what you don’t see.

Being wealthy means that you have assets that generate you income as well as a store of wealth. A wealthy person is typically invested in real estate, the stock market, and might own a business or two. These individuals have assets that can be passed down generation to generation and don’t waste time keeping up with the Joneses. They focus on amassing assets and wealth.

“Wealth is the nice cars not purchased. The diamonds not bought. The watches not worn, the clothes forgone and the first-class upgrade declined. Wealth is financial assets that haven’t yet been converted into the stuff you see,” explains Morgan Housel, author of The Psychology of Money.

“That’s not how we think about wealth, because you can’t contextualize what you can’t see.

When most people say they want to be a millionaire, what they might actually mean is ‘I’d like to spend a million dollars.’ And that is literally the opposite of being a millionaire.”

Wealth defined

In their groundbreaking book, The Millionaire Next Door, authors Thomas J. Stanley, Ph.D, and William D. Danko, Ph.D, do not define wealthy, affluent, or rich in terms of material possessions. They opined that many people who display a high-consumption lifestyle have little or no investments, appreciable assets, income-producing assets, common stocks, bonds, private businesses, oil/gas rights, or timber land.

Conversely, those people whom they define as being wealthy get much more pleasure from owning substantial amounts of appreciable assets than from displaying a high-consumption lifestyle.

Bottomline, the most important parts of wealth and personal finance are how you behave with it and your related habits.

Wealth gives you freedom

Wealth give you time to do what you want and give you Freedom. When you are wealthy, you don’t have to sell hours of your day working. You can instead choose to spend your day doing the things you love and enjoy it.

And, freedom is defined as “the power or right to act, speak, or think as one wants without hindrance or restraint.” When you have wealth, you have the freedom to do things that you have always wanted to do, with minimal hindrances.

References:

  1. https://retirementfieldguide.com/wealth-is-what-you-dont-see/
  2. https://themillionairenextdoor.com/publications/the-millionaire-next-door/
  3. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/personalfinance/definition-of-wealth-what-does-being-wealthy-mean/ar-AAWpqRq

Discipline and Patience are two great personal superpowers.

High-Income Taxpayers Paid the Majority of Federal Income Taxes

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In 2018, the top 1 percent of taxpayers (taxpayers with AGI of $540,009 and above) accounted for more income taxes paid than the bottom 90 percent combined. ~ Tax Foundation

Federal individual income tax (or personal income tax) is levied on the wages, salaries, investments, or other forms of income an individual or household earns. The U.S. imposes a progressive income tax where rates increase with income, explains the Tax Foundation.

Federal individual income tax represent for more than 25 percent of the nation’s taxes paid (at all levels of government). Federal income taxes are much more progressive than federal payroll taxes, which are responsible for about 20 percent of all taxes paid (at all levels of government) and are more progressive than most state and local taxes.

Federal individual income taxes are the largest source of tax revenue in the U.S. In 2018, 144.3 million taxpayers reported earning $11.6 trillion in adjusted gross income (AGI) and paid $1.5 trillion in individual income taxes. Adjusted gross income is a taxpayer’s total income minus certain “above-the-line” deductions. It is a broad measure that includes income from wages, salaries, interest, dividends, retirement income, Social Security benefits, capital gains, business, and other sources, and subtracts specific deductions.

AGI is a fairly narrow income concept and does not include income items like government transfers (except for the portion of Social Security benefits that is taxed), the value of employer-provided health insurance, underreported or unreported income (most notably that of sole proprietors), income derived from municipal bond interest, net imputed rental income, and others.

In 2018, the top 1 percent of all taxpayers (taxpayers with AGI of $540,009 and above) earned 20.9 percent of all AGI in 2018 and paid 40.1 percent of all federal income taxes.

In contrast, the top 1 percent of all taxpayers (taxpayers with AGI of $540,009 and above) earned 20.9 percent of all AGI in 2018 and paid 40.1 percent of all federal income taxes.

In 2018, the top 1 percent paid a greater share of individual income taxes (40.1 percent) than the bottom 90 percent combined (28.6 percent). The top 1 percent of taxpayers paid roughly $616 billion, or 38.5 percent of all income taxes, while the bottom 90 percent paid about $479 billion, or 29.9 percent of all income taxes.

The top 1 percent of taxpayers (AGI of $540,009 and above) paid the highest average tax rate, 25.4 percent.

References:

  1. https://taxfoundation.org/federal-income-tax-data-2021/
  2. https://taxfoundation.org/summary-of-the-latest-federal-income-tax-data-2020-update/
  3. Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income, “Number of Returns, Shares of AGI and Total Income Tax, AGI Floor on Percentiles in Current and Constant Dollars, and Average Tax Rates,” Table 1, and “Number of Returns, Shares of AGI and Total Income Tax, and Average Tax Rates,” Table 2, https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-individual-income-tax-rates-and-tax-shares.

Best Investing and Trading Advice

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  1. “History repeats because of the weakness of human nature. The greed for quick fortunes has cost the public countless millions of dollars. Every experienced stock trader knows that overtrading is his greatest weakness, but he continues to allow this weakness to be his ruin. There must be a cure for this greatest weakness in trading, and that cure is STOP LOSS ORDERS. The weakest point must be overcome and the stop loss order is the cure for overtrading.” ~ WD Gann
  2. The only true test of whether a stock is “cheap” or “high” is not its current price in relation to some former price, no matter how accustomed we may have become to that former price, but whether the company’s fundamentals are significantly more or less favorable than the current financial-community appraisal of that stock.” ~ Philip Fisher
  3. “Trading is a waiting game. You sit, you wait, and you make a lot of money all at once. Profits come in bunches. The trick when going sideways between home runs is not to lose too much in between.” ~ Michael Covel
  4. “I learned to avoid trying to catch up or double up to recoup losses. I also learned that a certain amount of loss will affect your judgment, so you have to put some time between that loss and the next trade.” ~ Richard Dennis
  5. “Trading is a psychological game. Most people think they are playing against the market, but the market doesn´t care. You’re really playing against yourself.” ~ Martin Schwarz
  6. “Value investing requires a great deal of hard work, unusually strict discipline, and a long-term investment horizon. Few are willing and able to devote sufficient time and effort to become value investors, and only a fraction of those have the proper mind-set to succeed.” ~ Seth Klarman

References:

  1. https://www.t3live.com/blog/2017/12/01/best-trading-investing-quotes/

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note

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The benchmark 10-year yield matters to financial markets because it informs prices for everything from mortgages to corporate debt. Higher borrowing costs can slam the brakes on economic activity, even provoking a recession.

The 10-year treasury bond is a debt instrument issued by the government of the United States. As its name implies, it matures in ten years. Over the course of that time, investors holding 10-year treasury notes, earn yields. The 10-year T-notes are issued at a face value of $1,000, and a coupon.

The Coupon is the nominal or stated rate of interest on the 10-year Treasury Note. This is the annual interest rate paid by the U.S. government, based on the note’s face value. These interest payments are made semiannually. 

The 10-year Treasury Note is also an economic indicator. Its yield provides information about investor confidence. While historical yield ranges do not appear wide, any basis point movement is a signal to the market. The 10-year treasury note is the gold standard of interest rates. Nearly every United States lending institution derives its interest rates by benchmarking the 10-year treasury note. This makes it both a powerful investment tool and a financial barometer for evaluating other types of investments—including debt securities. 

There are many factors that affect the 10-year yield, the most substantial being investor sentiment. When investors have high confidence in the markets and believe they can profit outside of Treasury securities, the yield will rise as the price falls. This sentiment is determined by both the individual investor and investors as a whole, and can be based on any number of factors such as economic stability, geopolitical fluctuations, war, black swan events and more.

The 10-year treasury note is both a powerful investment tool and a financial barometer for evaluating other types of investments—including debt securities. 

If bond investors think the economy will do better in the next decade, they will require a higher yield to keep their money socked away. When there is a lot of uncertainty, they don’t need much return to keep their money safe. Usually, investors don’t need much return to keep their money tied up for only short periods of time, and they need a lot more to keep it tied up for longer.

Treasury yields change every day because they are resold on the secondary market. Hardly anyone keeps them for the full term. If bond prices drop, it means that demand for Treasurys has fallen, as well. That drives yields up as investors require more return for their investments.

Thus, on the secondary bond market, when there’s a bull equity market or the economy is in the expansion phase of the business cycle, there are plenty of other favorable investments. Investors are looking for more return than a 10-year Treasury note will give. As a result, there’s not a lot of demand. Bidders are only willing to pay less than the face value. When that happens, the yield is higher. Treasurys are sold at a discount, so there is a greater return on the investment.

The 10-year Treasury note yield is also the benchmark that guides other interest rates. As yields on the 10-year Treasury notes rise, so do the interest rates on other types of debt instruments like fixed-rate mortgages. Investors who buy bonds are looking for the best rate with the lowest return. If the rate on the Treasury note drops, then the rates on other, less safe investments can also fall and remain competitive.

10-year bond yields provide insight into a number of interrelated variables, including bond prices, mortgage rates, investor confidence, and more. This means that Treasury yields can provide insight into upcoming market conditions, or otherwise reflect current investor sentiment.

This all begs the question, what do the currently elevated 10-year Treasury yields say about the state of the economy.

Rising yields in particular present a uniquely terrifying possibility to investors. Should the yield grow too high, the stage could be set for a substantial stock market selloff as investors instead funnel their money into safer Treasurys. This could spell the end of whatever bull market Americans have been enjoying.

With that said, historically troublesome 10-year yield rates are closer to the 3% to 4% psychological level. But the above 4.0% yield currently in play is actually not as troublesome as one might have anticipated.

Depending on inflation expectations, the point where investors begin to look at Treasurys as a substitute for stocks will change. Should investors expect more inflation, which, despite the Fed’s plan is still the general consensus, the yield may have to hit 4% to present a comparable threat to the markets.

There may not exist a static roadmap for understanding 10-year Treasury yields, as they themselves are dynamic. Understanding the role Treasurys play in reflecting economic expectations and investor sentiment can dramatically enhance your understanding of financial markets, and facilitate better decisions for your portfolio.

Government bonds are the safest, because they are guaranteed. Since they’re the safest, they offer the lowest returns. U.S. Treasury notes and bonds are the most popular.

The 10-year Treasury yield is used to determine investor confidence in the markets. It moves to the inverse of the price of the 10-year Treasury note and is considered one of the safest—if lowest returning—investments that can be made. Although the investment is guaranteed by the U.S. government, investors could still lose money if inflation outpaces the 10-year yield.

The 10-year Treasury note is worth paying attention to as a key metric for tracking other interest rates. Use it as a barometer for understanding why other debt securities behave the way they do.

You can learn a lot about where the economy is in the business cycle by looking at the 10-year U.S. Treasury note. It indicates how much return investors need to tie up their money for 10 years.

References:

  1. https://www.thebalancemoney.com/10-year-treasury-note-3305795
  2. https://investorplace.com/2022/02/10-year-treasury-yields-today-what-to-know-as-yields-continue-climb-above-1-9/
  3. https://investmentu.com/what-is-a-10-year-treasury-note/

Investing Lessons Learned

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“To maximize returns, buy stocks when everyone hates them and sell them when everyone loves them. This is easy in theory, but brutally difficult in practice.” ~ Brian Feroldi

Brian Feroldi is a financial educator and he has been saving and investing for 18+ years. From his experiences, below he shares 10 painful lessons he had to learn and sometimes relearn the hard way:

1. You don’t need leverage.

Margin and options are fun on the way up and BRUTAL on the way down. Many investors have lost more than 100% on investment before. Why? Leverage.

Buffett said it best:

2. Optimize for longevity, not upside

Compound interest is the most powerful wealth-building force that exists. But, it only works if you SURVIVE long enough for it to work.

You must avoid investing to optimize for upside potential. Instead, you should follow the barbell method to optimize for longevity.

3. High conviction DOES NOT = correct

If you convinced yourself that a certain stock could only go up. you might be right on some. On others, you may lost significant value.

Conviction is useful, but just because you think you are right doesn’t mean that you are right.

Allocate accordingly

4. Stock prices and business results (and intrinsic value) are 0% correlated in the short-term and 100% correlated in the long-term

Do not sell future mega-winners because their stocks were down (dumb).

Instead of watching the stock, instead focus on the fundamentals of the business.

5. Not having a system

Do not try to keep everything in my head, which was dumb (and impossible).

Instead, use checklists, journals, or watchlist, which are invaluable free tools.

6. Not understanding the P/E ratio

Do not pass on high P/E ratio stocks that went up big and buy low P/E ratio stocks that went down big.

Why? It’s about understanding the P/E ratio’s flaws.

Now, P/E only works in stage 4. It doesn’t work in stages 1, 2, 3 or 5

7. Panic selling and panic buying

Emotions have caused many investors to panic buy hype stocks and panic sell future mega-winners.

It’s easy to say you’ll be greedy when others are fearful, and visa-versa.

It’s hard to actually do it.

8. Study history

Human nature is remarkably consistent. The same forces that drove markets 100+ years still exist in all of us today.

There’s always a smart-sounded reason to sell and it’s important to understand that.

9. Don’t focused on what you can’t control

Do not follow the news closely, or watch for clues to predict the market.

This will be time poorly spent. Macro factors matter, but you have no control over them.

It essential you focus far more on what you can control.

10. Not changing your mind

This one is REALLY hard, but it’s necessary to do well.

Changing your mind is hard. Admitting you’re wrong is hard.

But, @JeffBezos said it best:

Learning invaluable investing lessons, especially from the mistakes of others, is an essential part of becoming a more successful long-term investor.

References:

  1. https://bookshop.org/shop/Feroldi
  2. https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/the-critical-money-and-investing-lessons-i-wish-my-younger-self-had-understood-11651762064
  3. http://mindset.brianferoldi.com

September PPI 8.5% and Stubborn Inflation

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Inflation at the wholesale level rose 8.5% in September

September’s Producer Price Index (PPI) came in at 8.5% on a year-over-year (y/y) basis and 0.4% month-over-month (m/m) basis, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Both numbers are higher than expected. Goods (ex-food & energy) added nothing on a m/m basis, but services (which are stickier) were up 0.6% m/m. Not great news in the fight against inflation.

The Producer Price Index (PPI), produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is an index that measures the average change over time in prices received (price changes) by producers for domestically produced goods, services, and construction. PPI measures price change from the perspective of the seller.

Inflation operates much like a tax, a particularly egregious one that disproportionately falls on the poor and leads to a variety of economic problems, including, as we’re seeing, higher interest rates, slow economic growth, and reduced incomes, according to the Tax Foundation. Inflation reduces every Americans purchasing power.

With inflation stubbornly running high, bondholders and consumers bear much of the burden of inflation over the long run, however a new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report reveals that lower- and middle-income households are disproportionately shouldering the burden of this current inflation wave.

Inflation is a burden on all those who use U.S. dollars, but the burden varies considerably across users. For instance, it falls particularly heavy on lenders, who subsequently are repaid in less valuable dollars.

In contrast, borrowers benefit from inflation, with the single largest beneficiary being the federal government, as Treasury debt is repaid with less valuable dollars. Publicly held Treasury debt is currently about $31 trillion, larger than the size of U.S. economy measured by GDP.

There is a long history of the federal government using inflation, or money creation, to finance spending instead of taxes, particularly in times of war, states the Tax Foundation. For example, the sharp increase in federal spending during World War II produced large fiscal deficits that were financed by Treasury debt. The debt was purchased by the Federal Reserve through printing money.

References:

  1. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf
  2. https://taxfoundation.org/inflation-regressive-effects/