Category Archives: Commodities

Buying Stocks On the Dip

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“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful.” ~Warren Buffett

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett added shares of companies during the market downturn. He has been acquiring stocks on the dip during the recent quarter’s market downturn and bulking up his stakes in oil companies such as Occidental Petroleum (OXY)

Buying a ‘Wonderful Company at a Fair Price’

The most important concept to appreciate when buying stocks is that price is what you pay for a stock, and value is what you get. Paying too high a price can decimate returns and increase your investing risk. 

To delve deeper, the value of a stock is relative to the number of earnings or cash flow the company will generate over its lifetime. In particular, this value is determined by discounting all future cash flows back to a present value, or intrinsic value.

Buffett has said that “it is much better to buy a wonderful business at a good price than a good business at a wonderful price”.

Buffett’s investing style has been buying stocks on sale priced below its intrinsic value. He has never been one that favors acquiring commodities, but higher inflation rates could have played a role, Thomas Hayes, chairman of Great Hill Capital in New York, commented.

“As for Buffett buying shares in OXY, I wouldn’t make too much on it,” Hayes said. “Historically, he has avoided investing in commodity stocks. Today he sees it as a hedge against inflation and a potential supply/demand imbalance.”

Inflation is the biggest strain on the economy. While the pace of inflation eased slightly during the month of April, investor sentiment towards the Fed’s pace of tightening remains mixed.

The fact that he is deploying his war chest of cash is a strong indication that he and his lieutenants believe that there are undervalued stocks out there,” he said. “This doesn’t mean he believes that the market is undervalued or will rebound in the near future, but that some companies are compelling buys. This is a good signal for value investors.”

Buffett’s energy investments demonstrate the 91-year old’s investing strategy of acquiring shares in companies that have low valuations and shareholder returns in the form of dividends and buybacks, Art Hogan, chief market strategist B Riley Financial, told TheStreet.

References:

  1. https://www.thestreet.com/investing/buffett-buying-stocks-on-the-dip

Protect Yourself Against Inflation

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“Rising costs can erode your purchasing power if you aren’t careful.” Fidelity Investments

Adding certain asset classes, such as commodities or real estate, to a well-diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds can help buffer against inflation, according to Fidelity Investments.

The last 12 months have seen the highest increases in the consumer price index (CPI) and producer prices (PPI) in decades, and many investors are concerned about the impact that inflation might have on their ability to reach their financial goals.

A trip to the supermarket or your local restaurant brings home the reality of inflation.

The consumer price index (CPI) has risen 8.5% over the last 12 months. Meanwhile, producer prices (PPI) have jumped by 11.2%. Those are the highest rates since the 1970s. And the forces driving prices up such as war, the pandemic, supply chain disruptions, and surging demand from consumers and businesses don’t look to be going away anytime soon.

While it may not be possible to avoid or eliminate the effects of inflation completely, there are actions you may be able to do to reduce its sting.

Add inflation-resistant assets

Though the rise in inflation may be troubling, investors who already have a well-diversified portfolio of traditional stocks and bonds may already have some degree of protection, as portfolios such as these have historically tended to grow even in periods of high inflation. “We still believe that a mix of stocks and bonds can help investors experience growth while managing risk,” says Naveen Malwal, an institutional portfolio manager with Strategic Advisers, LLC.

Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

Malwal recommend specific steps to help provide additional inflation protection. They emphasize that certain investments that have historically done well in inflationary environments. This has included adding diversified commodities, such as energy, industrial metals, precious metals, and agricultural products, as well as real estate stocks and international stocks.

In the bond market, Malwal notes a greater emphasis on high-yield bonds. “While these carry more risk than investment-grade debt, the higher yield may allow them to more easily withstand any increases in interest rates that might occur in response to rising inflation.” He also highlighted a greater exposure to Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), which are designed to help protect investors from the impact of inflation.

Lastly, short-term bonds have typically experienced less volatility during periods of higher inflation. “We generally have more exposure to short-term bonds than to intermediate-term bonds in client accounts,” says Malwal, “But we also have more exposure to long-term bonds, as they have historically provided stability within well-diversified portfolios during periods of stock market volatility.”

References:

  1. https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/wealth-management-insights/6-ways-to-help-protect-against-inflationhttps://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/wealth-management-insights/6-ways-to-help-protect-against-inflation
  2. https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/markets-sectors/peak-inflation