Category Archives: Economy

Best Business to Own When Inflation Spikes

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Invest in asset-light businesses with pricing power.

In a letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, the best type of business to own when inflation spikes, according to Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett, have two characteristics that make a business well adapted to an inflationary environment:

  1. An ability to increase prices easily, and
  2. An ability to take on more business without having to spend too much in order to do it.

In other words, aim to invest in asset-light businesses with pricing power.

Buffett also stated that the best business to own is one that doesn’t require continuous reinvestment of capital because it becomes more and more expensive as the value of a dollar drops.

“The best businesses during inflation are the businesses that you buy once and then you don’t have to keep making capital investments subsequently,” Buffett said, adding that “any business with heavy capital investment tends to be a poor business to be in inflation and often it’s a poor business to be in generally.”

Businesses like utilities or railroads “keep eating up more and more money” and aren’t as profitable, he explained. He prefers to own companies that people have a connection to. That is why “a brand is a wonderful thing to own during inflation,” Buffett said. Owning part of “a wonderful business,” as Buffett said in 2009, is useful because no matter what happens with the value of the dollar, the business’ product will still be in demand.

Buffett also said that it’s particularly handy to own real estate during times of inflation because the purchase is a “one-time outlay” for the investor, and has the added benefit of being able to be resold.

Inflation quietly eats away at earnings and purchasing power.

When the economy exhibits strong economic growth, there is a higher demand for goods and services, which in effect increases prices of those goods and services; that’s attributed to inflation. Essentially, the rate of inflation increases when demand in the economy is higher than supply, causing an overall price rise.

Inflation also impacts money sitting in the bank. While you may be receiving interest on savings from a money market account, the growth of inflation can outpace that of the savings rate offered by the bank. Keeping all your savings in cash is warranting your liquid assets a definite loss to inflation.

Effectively, your money does not grow at a higher rate, but loses purchasing power over time compared to if it was properly invested in equity assets.

Inflation

“By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of [all] their citizens.” John Maynard Keynes

Inflation is tracked using the Consumer Price Index, known as the (CPI). This index, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics each month, measures the average change over time of prices consumers pay for goods and services.

The immediate effects of inflation are the changes in the behavior of consumption habits. In the long-term, inflation erodes the purchasing power of your income and accumulated wealth.

“Inflation reduces the ‘power’ of each dollar you have,” says Rob Isbitts, co-founder of The Hedged Investor in Weston, Florida. “A dollar is a dollar, but what it buys can be less in the future than it is today.”

Purchasing power risk – also known as inflation risk – is when the real interest rate, which accounts for adjusted inflation, shows the gain or loss in purchasing power.

“Inflation reduces the ‘power’ of each dollar you have,” says Rob Isbitts, co-founder of The Hedged Investor in Weston, Florida. “A dollar is a dollar, but what it buys can be less in the future than it is today.”

Assets That Protect Against Inflation

Inflation can pose a threat to investments since prices that increase over time can decrease the value of your savings.

And, financial experts agree that there is no way to fully protect your investments against inflation. Nonetheless, there are ways to help protect against this risk. These experts say having a substantial allocation to stocks is important for growth potential while offsetting against inflation risk.

In the long term, the stock market is expected to outperform the inflation rate. Stocks are commonly thought of as an inflation protection asset since, over time, stock performance will outpace inflation. These assets are seen as a hedge against inflation:

  • TIPS, or Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, which are bonds backed by the full faith of the U.S. government and protect against rising prices, make a very safe asset
  • REITs, or real estate investment trusts, are an organic hedge against inflation. When prices increase, real estate values increase as well. This asset is highly correlated with inflation, which means REIT returns are higher when inflation increases.
  • Gold is an asset that might provide protection against inflation and a good safeguard of inflation over the long run,

Inflation can significantly weaken your purchasing power and the performance of your investments and thus impact their value. That’s why acting to suppress the dangers of inflation is important to preserve the value of your cash flow and wealth in the long run.

References:

  1. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-says-best-type-195900081.html
  2. https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/how-inflation-and-deflation-impact-your-investments
  3. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/warren-buffett-inflation-best-businesses.html

The Debt Ceiling and Congressional Brinkmanship

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“I could end the deficit in 5 minutes. You just pass a law that says that anytime there is a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election.” Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO, Berkshire Hathaway

Around October 18, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the U.S. Treasury Department have warned Congress that the government will no longer be able to pay all its bills unless the $28.5 trillion statutory debt ceiling is increased or suspended.

Source: Congressional Research Service, Congressional Budget Office, and the Treasury Department. Data as of 05/01/2021.

Moreover, Secretary Yellen believes the economy would fall into a recession if Congress fails to address the borrowing limit before an unprecedented default on the U.S. debt.

While the U.S. has never failed to pay its bills, economists say a default would tarnished faith in Washington’s ability to honor its future obligations on time and potentially delay Social Security checks to some 50 million seniors and delay pay to members of the U.S. armed services.

“If you ask the question of Americans, should we pay our bills? One hundred percent would say yes. There’s a significant misunderstanding on the debt ceiling. People think it’s authorizing new spending. The debt ceiling doesn’t authorize new spending; it allows us to pay obligations already incurred.” Peter Welch (D-VT), U.S. House of Representatives Democratic Caucus Chief Deputy Whip

Increases to the debt ceiling aren’t new. They’ve occurred dozens of times over the last century, mostly matter-of-factly, a tacit acknowledgement that the bills in question are for spending that Congress has already approved.

One thing separating today’s debt debate from those of the past is the larger-than-ever national debt, according to Fidelity. Publicly held US debt topped 100% of GDP in 2020 and is expected to reach 102% by the end of 2021.

And the debt is projected to increase significantly in the future. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a federal budget deficit of $2.3 trillion in 2021—the second largest deficit since 1945.

Source: Congressional Budget Office, as of February 11, 2021.

Failure to address the current challenge could shake global markets even before the Treasury has exhausted its available measures to pay bills. A U.S. debt default, whether through delayed payments on interest owed on U.S. Treasuries or on other obligations, would be unprecedented.

The effect would be one of perception. And, perception can be tied to the reality that someone isn’t going to be paid on time, whether it be government contractors, individuals who receive entitlement payments, or someone else. The damage to U.S. credibility would be irreversible.

Even if a default were only technical—if payments other than interest on debt were delayed—the United States could no longer fully reap the benefits bestowed on the most reliable debtors.

Interest rates would likely rise, as would financing costs for businesses and individuals. Debt ratings would be at risk. The government’s own financing costs, borne by taxpayers, would increase. Stock markets would likely be pressured as higher rates made companies’ future cash flows less predictable. Such developments occurring while economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic remains incomplete makes the potential scenario all the more important to avoid.

Let it be said that no one doubts the ability of the United States to pay for its obligations, according to Vanguard. There is a minimal credit risk posed by the United States is supported by its strong economic fundamentals, excellent market access and financing flexibility, favorable long-term prospects, and the dollar’s status as a global reserve currency.

The House has passed a measure that would suspend the debt ceiling through mid-December of 2022, and the bill now goes to the Senate. Republicans in the Senate oppose any effort to raise the borrowing limit and appears intent on making Democrats address it as part of their sprawling investment in social programs and climate policy under reconciliation.

Senate Democrats could lift the debt ceiling without the GOP votes through reconciliation, although that would come with downsides. Under reconciliation, a simple majority of senators can pass a very small number of budget bills each year. The process is sufficiently complex that it would probably take a couple of weeks and distract Democrats from their negotiations over Biden’s “Build Back Bette” agenda.

Thus, the Democrats resist raising the debt ceiling through reconciliation if it means potentially sacrificing other policy goals. And, the rules for reconciliation would require Democrats to specify a new limit for the national debt which would expose them to potentially uncomfortable GOP political attack ads.

Republicans insist that since Democrats control both the executive and the legislative branches and are in a socialistic tax-and-spend binge, they should bear sole responsibility for dealing with the debt limit, which is rearing its ugly head again because the suspension included in a two-year 2019 budget deal expired on July 31.

Democrats argue that Republicans should share the burden of this unpopular chore, since (a) much of the debt involved was run up under Republican presidents and (b) Democrats accommodated Republicans on debt-limit relief during the Trump presidency.

For long term investors, it’s clearly in the best interest of the country to resolve any debt-ceiling issues, according to Fidelity. And, it’s important to understand that there will always be times of uncertainty. It’s important to take a long-term view of your investments and review them regularly to make sure they line up with your time frame for investing, risk tolerance, and financial situation.

References:

  1. https://investornews.vanguard/potential-u-s-debt-default-why-to-stay-the-course/
  2. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/05/debt-ceiling-us-faces-recession-if-congress-doesnt-act.html
  3. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/10/democrats-can-raise-debt-ceiling-via-reconciliation-bill.html
  4. https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/2021-debt-ceiling

Advantages to Taking Social Security Benefits at Age 62

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“Social Security’s trust funds will become unable to pay full benefits starting in 2034, one year earlier than estimated last year.” Social Security Administration Trustee Report

Social Security has two programs, one for retirees and another that provides disability benefits. The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund will become unable to pay full benefits starting in 2033, a year earlier than projected in 2020, while the Disability Insurance Trust Fund will become depleted in 2057, or 8 years earlier, according to Social Security Administration.

The U.S. economic recession caused by COVID-19 led to a drop in U.S. employment and a resulting decrease in payroll tax revenue, which accelerates the depletion of Social Security’s reserves.

When to claim benefits

You can start receiving your Social Security retirement benefits as early as age 62. And, there are advantages and disadvantages to taking your benefit before your full retirement age.  Matter of fact, 31% of women and 27% of men claim their Social Security benefits as soon as they qualify at age 62 in 2018.

  • The primary advantage is that you collect benefits for a longer period of time.
  • The primary disadvantage is your benefit will be reduced. Each person’s situation is different.

The earliest you can apply for Social Security benefits is four months before the month you want your benefits to start, and the earliest your benefits can start is your first full month as a 62-year-old. For example, if you turn 62 in June, your benefits can begin in July, and you can apply as early as March. And, Social Security Benefits are actually paid one month in arrears in August.

There is an exception: If you were born on the first or second day of a month, you can begin collecting your benefits in that month.

You may need your Social Security Benefits as a source of guaranteed income to help pay bills, or if you anticipate not living long enough to reap the rewards of delaying.

If you start taking Social Security at age 62, rather than waiting until your full retirement age (FRA), you can expect up to a 30% reduction in monthly benefits with lesser reductions as you approach FRA.

Delaying can boost monthly payments compare to claiming early. Colleen, single at age 62 would receive $1,450. At 66 1/2 $2,000. At 70, $2,560. Waiting until age 70 would increase Colleen's montly benefits by more than 765 and her lifetime benefits by at least 24%

Social Security replaces a percentage of your pre-retirement income based on their lifetime earnings. The portion of your pre-retirement wages that Social Security replaces is based on your highest 35 years of earnings and varies depending on how much you earn and when you choose to start benefits.

When you work, you pay taxes into Social Security and the Social Security Administration uses the tax money to pay benefits to:

  • People who have already retired.
  • People who are disabled.
  • Survivors of workers who have died.
  • Dependents of beneficiaries.

The money you pay in taxes isn’t held in a personal account for you to use when you get benefits. We use your taxes to pay people who are getting benefits right now. Any unused money goes to the Social Security trust fund that pays monthly benefits to you and your family when you start receiving retirement benefits.

Living in retirement

You’re officially retired and have worked hard to build up your retirement nest egg. As you transition your mindset from saving to spending, you’ll want to now change your focus: Protect what you have, don’t run out of money, develop a housing strategy for where you’ll live over the next 20–30 years, and hopefully, enjoy life as much as you can with your friends and family.

Claiming Social Security at 62 makes sense in several scenarios. Below are four reasons to consider filing as early as possible.

  1. You’re out of work against non-voluntary – Many people are forced out of a job before they’re ready to retire. If you’ve been downsized and can’t find a new job, Social Security could help replace of your regular paycheck. Furthermore, the coronavirus pandemic has forced a lot of seniors out of the workforce, whether due to layoffs or health concerns. If you’re able to compensate for not working by claiming benefits early, do so since it’s a better bet than racking up debt.
  2. You’re out of work temporarily and need money – Maybe you’re not working right now to address a health issue or lay low until the pandemic is over, but you’re confident you can get back out there in six months. In that case, claiming Social Security at 62 could be a smart move because you can actually use that money as a loan of sorts. One lesser-known Social Security rule is that you’re allowed to undo your filing once in your lifetime. If you claim benefits at 62 but are working again in a few months, you can withdraw your application, repay the SSA the benefits it paid you, and then file again at a later age so you don’t slash your benefits in the process. The only catch is that you must undo your claim and repay your benefits within 12 months. But if you can pull that off, you can collect Social Security on a temporary basis without locking yourself into a lower monthly benefit forever.
  3. You’re tired of working and can get by on your Social Security paycheck – Maybe you have the option to work, but at this point in life, you’re tired of doing it. If your expenses are such that you can get by on your Social Security income, or a combination of Social Security and other income sources, then there comes a point when you should let yourself off the hook after a lifetime of hard work. If you’re going to claim Social Security early for this reason, you should make sure to have a healthy retirement savings balance to compensate for a lower monthly benefit.
  4. You Have Minor or Disabled Children at Home – If you have children, eligible grandchildren, or even a spouse providing care for these children at home, these family members may be eligible for a benefit. There’s a rule that states that before benefits can be paid to anyone off of your work record, you have to be receiving benefits. That means filing early could make more sense than waiting. When combined with your benefits, the benefits to children and your eligible spouse can be up to 180% of your full retirement age benefit. If you have children at home that meet the criteria for eligibility, that’s an obvious reason to consider filing early.

It might seem like it makes sense to wait to file until full retirement age, then, when you’d receive $2,000 (versus filing at 62, when you’d only get $1,500 per month).

If you lived until 90, you’d receive an additional $70,000 in benefits for delaying filing until 66 instead of filing at 62. But this calculation doesn’t take into account the benefits paid to your children. While your children would be eligible for benefits based upon your retirement, the kids cannot get benefits until you file. That means your family would able to collect thousands of dollars more in lifetime benefits if you file early and turn on the benefits for your kids.

For every good reason to claim Social Security at 62, there’s an equally good reason to wait. On average, retirement beneficiaries receive 40% of their pre-retirement income from Social Security.

References:

  1. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/social-security-to-become-unable-to-pay-full-benefits-sooner-than-previously-estimated-11630436444
  2. https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/learn.html
  3. https://www.aarp.org/retirement/social-security/questions-answers/social-security-start-at-62.html
  4. https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/retirement/social-security-at-62
  5. https://www.fool.com/retirement/2021/04/05/3-great-reasons-to-take-social-security-benefits-a/
  6. https://communications.fidelity.com/pi/calculators/social-security/#sectionAge
  7. https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/quickcalc/early_late.html
  8. https://www.socialsecurityintelligence.com/5-smart-reasons-to-consider-filing-for-social-security-at-62/

Housing Boom is Over as New Home Sales Fall to Pandemic Low

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“Housing has been one of the brightest lights of the economic recovery from COVID-19, but a shortage of homes for sale and rising prices have crimped sales.” U. S. News & World Report

CNBC reported that:

  • Sales of new single family homes fell to an annualized rate of 676,000, 6.6% below May’s rate of 724,000 and 19.4% below the June 2020 level of 839,000.
  • The inventory of new homes for sale jumped from a 5.5-month supply in May to a 6.3-month supply in June. Last fall, it sat at a low of just 3.5 months.

Sales of newly built homes dropped in June to the lowest level since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic in April 2020, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau.

After a year of frenzied buying and price gains in the double digits, newly built homes are now out of reach for much of the demand that remains in the market, according to CNBC. 

The median price of a newly built home in June rose just 6% from June 2020, and while that is a large gain historically, it is nothing compared with the 15%-20% annual gains seen in previous months.

Most of the homebuying is on the higher end of the market, and builders cannot afford to put up affordable homes due to skyrocketing construction costs.

Softwood lumber, in particular, spiked more than 300% during the pandemic, and while it has fallen back dramatically in the last month, it is still about 75% above its 2019 average. Other lumber products are still significantly more expensive.

“We also know there are shortages of appliances, labor and affordable lots,” noted Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at the Bleakley Advisory Group. “The moderation in home sales is likely a combination of sticker shock and the slowdown in the ability of builders to finish homes because of a variety of delays.”

While there is unquestionably still strong demand from buyers, much of it is being squelched by affordability and supply issues.

Those signs clearly showed up at builder home sites in June and have been a factor in weakening homebuilder sentiment for the past two months. Noted builder analyst Ivy Zelman wrote as much in a note last month.

The U.S. housing market is a major indicator of the strength of the economy.

When the economy is strong and people are confident about the future, they are more inclined to buy houses, upgrade their current homes or buy larger houses. When they are more concerned about the economy, new home construction, remodeling, median prices and housing sales are all depressed.

For years, real estate was considered a reliable way to increase personal wealth because the cost of property and housing consistently increased over time.

References:

  1. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/26/housing-boom-is-over-as-new-home-sales-fall-to-pandemic-low.html
  2. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
  3. https://www.usnews.com/topics/subjects/housing-market
  4. https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2021-07-26/new-home-sales-slip-66-in-june

Buffett on Inflation

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“Inflation often feels like an abstract concept, but it hits everyday people the hardest.” Warren Buffett

Inflation is when the dollars in your wallet lose their purchasing power — either because the money supply has dramatically increased or because prices have surged, according to Bankrate.com.

Effectively, inflation occurs when the cost of goods and services in the economy goes up over a sustained period of time. Yet, inflation doesn’t happen overnight, and it also doesn’t happen when the cost of one particular good or service goes up.

From an economics perspective, inflation refers to price increases to the broader economy. And, price increases aren’t always synonymous with inflation — and some economic experts say a little bit of inflation is actually good for the economy. That’s for two main reasons: One, it prevents a deflationary trap, which experts say can be even worse than deflation because money loses value. Another reason is because households make better financial decisions when they expect stable and low prices.

“We may see prices rise on certain things like gas or milk, but it’s not necessarily inflation unless you see prices rising sort of across the board, across many different products and services,” says Jordan van Rijn, senior economist at the Credit Union National Association (CUNA).

The Berkshire CEO described high inflation as a “tax on capital” that discourages corporate investment. The “hurdle rate,” or the return on equity needed to generate a real return for investors, climbs when prices rise, Buffett said. “The average tax-paying investor is now running up a down escalator whose pace has accelerated to the point where his upward progress is nil,” Buffett added.

Buffett pointed out inflation can hurt more than income taxes, as it’s able to turn a positive return on investment into a negative one. If prices have climbed enough, people who make a nominal return on their investment may be left with less purchasing power than before they invested.

Inflation Causes

Given the federal government’s unprecedented loose monetary policy, fiscal spending spree and money-printing splurge over the last year, many economists have warned that such fiscal irresponsibility could result in a destructive wave of inflation.

‘I worry about inflation. I do not believe inflation is going to be transitory.’ Larry Fink, chairman and CEO, BlackRock Inc.

Defenders of federal government pandemic monetary and fiscal interventions have insisted that any resulting price inflation is just transitory. But recent data is showing that price inflation is hitting new highs and many economists believe that inflation is deep rooted and non-transitory.

However, the June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows prices once again sharply on the rise. From June 2020 to June 2021, the data show that consumer prices rose a staggering 5.4 percent. Larry Fink, Chairman and CEO of BlackRock Inc., isn’t convinced by the Federal Reserve’s arguments that U.S. inflation pressures will fade away once supply bottlenecks and other temporary factors resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic fade away.

Economists lump inflation causes into two categories: demand-pull and cost-push inflation.

Cost-push occurs when prices increase because production is more expensive; that can include rises in labor costs (wages) or material prices. Firms pass along those higher costs in the form of higher prices, which then cycles back into the cost of living.

On the flip side, demand-pull inflation generates price increases when consumers have resilient interest for a service or a good.

While price inflation has many causes, much of the current inflation can be traced back to the policy of the Federal Reserve. The Fed essentially created trillions of new dollars to pump into the economy in the name of “pandemic stimulus.”

“The quantity of money has increased more than 32.9% since January 2020,” Federal Economic and Education (FEE) economist Peter Jacobsen explained in May. “That means nearly one-quarter of the money in circulation has been created since then. If more dollars chase the exact same goods, prices will rise.” 

“We are seeing very substantial inflation,” Warren Buffet said at a recent shareholder meeting. “It’s very interesting. We are raising prices. People are raising prices to us and it’s being accepted.”

The typical person’s standard of living declines as a result of price inflation, because what really matters is not what number appears on your paycheck but the purchasing power of your paycheck. Working-class Americans suffer tremendously when their energy bill increases by nearly 25 percent in just one year, for example.

It is not a secret that stocks, like bonds, do poorly in an inflationary environment, according to Warren Buffett.

“There is no mystery at all about the problems of bondholders of in an era of inflation. When the value of the dollar deteriorates month after month, a security with income and principal payments denominated in those dollars isn’t going to be a big winner” Buffet states. “You hardly need a Ph.D. in economics to figure that one out.”

Regarding stocks, the conventional wisdom believes “…that stocks were a hedge against inflation. The proposition was rooted in the fact that stocks are not claims against dollars, as bonds are, but represent ownership of companies with productive facilities. These, investors believed, would retain their value in real terms; let the politicians print money as they might.”

The main reason it, stocks as a hedge against inflation, do not turn out the way conventional wisdom believed, according to Buffett, is that “stocks, in economic substance, are really very similar to bonds”.

References:

  1. https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/what-is-inflation/
  2. https://fee.org/articles/inflation-just-hit-a-13-year-high-here-s-why-you-should-care/
  3. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-warned-inflation-prices-tapeworm-investors-businesses-2021-5
  4. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/12/warren-buffett-explains-how-to-invest-in-stocks-when-inflation-rises.html
  5. https://fee.org/articles/the-costs-are-just-up-up-up-warren-buffett-issues-grave-warning-about-inflation/
  6. https://fortune.com/2011/06/12/buffett-how-inflation-swindles-the-equity-investor-fortune-classics-1977/
  7. http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Inflation-Swindles-the-Equity-Investor.pdf

Investing Goals, Time Horizon and Risk Tolerance

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When it involves investing, it’s important that you start with your financial goals, time horizon and risk tolerance.

At times in calendar year 2020, the global economy seemed on the verge of collapse. Risk, ruin and enormous opportunity were the big stories of the year. Overall, the year was marked by change, opportunity, calamity and resilience in the financial markets.

Yet, in the financial markets, winners dramatically outweighed the losers, according to Forbes Magazine. Almost overnight, new winners were born in communications, technology, lodging and investments. Innovative technology companies in the S&P 500 Index propelled U.S. markets higher. And, many industries were more resilient than expected, in part because of an unprecedented monetary and fiscal response from Washington.

In light of the unprecedented upheaval, you, like everyone else, want to see their money grow over the long term, but it’s important to determine what investments best match your own unique financial goals, time horizon and tolerance for risk.

To learn the basics of investing, it might help to start at one place, take a few steps, and slowly expand outward.

Begin by Setting Goals

As an investor, your general aim should be to grow your money and diversify your assets. But your investing can take on many different forms.

For instance, it might help you to decide the investing strategies you intend to follow in order to grow your money. Such as whether you are interested in purchasing assets that could appreciate in value, such as equity stocks and funds, or play it relative safe with bonds and cash equivalents.

If you’re interested in investing in bonds, you will receive a steady stream of income over a predetermined time period, after which you expect repayment of your principal.

You might also be interested in pursuing both growth and income, via dividend stocks.

Learning to invest means learning to weigh potential returns against risk since no investment is absolutely safe, and there’s no guarantee that an investment will work out in your favor. In a nutshell, investing is about taking “calculated risks.”

Nevertheless, the risk of losing money—no matter how seemingly intelligent or calculated your approach—can be stressful. This is why it’s important for you to really get to know your risk tolerance level.  When it comes to your choice of assets, it’s important to bear in mind that some securities are riskier than others. This may hold true for both equity and debt securities (i.e., “stocks and bonds”).

Your investment time horizon can also significantly affect your views on risk. Changes in your outlook may require a shift in your investment style and risk expectations. For instance, saving toward a short-term goal might require a lower risk tolerance, whereas a longer investing horizon can give your portfolio time to smooth out the occasional bumps in the market. But again, it depends on your risk tolerance, financial goals, and overall knowledge and experience.

References:

  1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2021/12/28/forbes-favorites-2020-the-years-best-finance–investing-stories/
  2. https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/investing/learn-to-invest-money-17155

What the Inflation of the 1970s can Teach Us Today

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A Wall Street Journal survey finds that “strong economic rebound and lingering pandemic disruptions fuel inflation forecasts above 2% through 2023”.

The U.S. inflation rate reached a 13-year high recently, triggering a debate about whether the country is entering an inflationary period similar to the 1970s, according to WSJ. Americans should brace themselves for several years of higher inflation than they’ve seen in decades, according to economists who expect the robust post-pandemic economic recovery to fuel brisk price increases for a while.

Economists surveyed this month by The Wall Street Journal raised their forecasts of how high inflation would go and for how long, compared with their previous expectations in April.

On average, the WSJ survey respondents expect a widely followed measure of inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, to be up 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2021 from a year before. They forecast the annual rise to recede to slightly less than 2.3% a year in 2022 and 2023.

That would mean an average annual increase of 2.58% from 2021 through 2023, putting inflation at levels last seen in 1993.

References:

  1. https://www.wsj.com/articles/higher-inflation-is-here-to-stay-for-years-economists-forecast-11626008400

June 2021 U.S. Monthly Jobs Report

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Missing 6.8 million jobs.

  • Nonfarm payrolls increased by 850,000 in June versus the estimate for 706,000.
  • The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 5.9% versus the 5.6% estimate.
  • Wages were up 0.3% for the month and 3.6% year over year, both in line with expectations.

Job growth leaped higher in June 2021, the U.S. Labor Department reported. Nonfarm payrolls increased 850,000 for the month, compared with the estimate of 706,000 and better than the upwardly revised 583,000 in May. The unemployment rate rose to 5.9% against the 5.6% expectation.

Currently, 6.8 million fewer jobs exist than before the pandemic. Millions of Americans have dropped out of the labor force.

Aside from ever-present concerns about pay and benefits, workers are particularly interested in jobs that allow them to work remotely at least some of the time. According to a Randstad survey of more than 1,200 people, 54 percent say they prefer a flexible work arrangement that doesn’t require them to be on-site full time.

Health and safety concerns are also very much on the minds of workers whose jobs require face-to-face interactions, the survey found.

The portion of the unemployed who have been out of work for six months or more rose.

Governors in 26 states have moved to end distribution of federal pandemic-related jobless benefits even though they are funded until September, arguing that the assistance — including a $300 weekly supplement — was discouraging people from returning to work.

References:

  1. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/02/jobs-report-june-2021.html
  2. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/02/business/economy/june-2021-jobs-report.html

Staying the Course…Investing | Vanguard

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“The volatility of the financial markets during the first half of 2020, punctuated by the most sudden, steep decline in U.S. market history, tested the mettle of most investors. Despite the gut-wrenching drop of nearly 34% in the S&P 500 Index in just over a month, Vanguard investors held firm, sticking with their plans and, in some cases, rebalancing into equities during the downturn. This discipline ultimately results in better outcomes over the long term.”

Tim Buckley, Vanguard Chairman and CEO

“Stay the course” doesn’t mean do nothing during market volatility or drop. It means stick to your investment plan. If you’re a long term investor or retired, focus on what you can control, such as your spending and asset mix.

A willingness to weather sudden market drops is an important part of long-term investing. Although it is a natural instinct to seek to preserve capital when the market drops precipitously, too often investors remain on the sidelines and miss the inevitable recovery.

Back in March 2020 during the height of stock market volatility and as many retail investors sold stocks in a panic, most financial experts reminded investors to stay the course. They reminded investors that a balanced, diversified portfolio is built to weather tough markets. The majority of investors (83%) held fast from late February to May and didn’t transact. Even better, 9% of their clients rebalanced into the storm, buying equities and regaining their targeted asset allocations. Rebalancing helps mitigate risk, and it is a staple of their advice.

They strongly recommended keeping a long-term perspective and don’t get thrown off by short-term volatility.

Why is staying the course so important? As an extreme example, consider the investor who lost faith in the markets and cashed out on March 23, the low point in the U.S. stock market. Stocks subsequently rebounded more than 39% over the next three months; the unfortunate individual who moved to a money market fund earned a meager 0.14%. Our analysis found that about 85% of investors who fled to cash would have been better off if they had just held their own portfolio.

Additionally, just as investors should stay even-keeled during stock market downturns, they should ignore the euphoria of a sudden surge in the market and the fear of missing out on easy gains from investing in stocks such as Tesla, Apple or SalesForce.

Staying the course isn’t easy. Instead, focus on what you can do during market volatility, and you (and your portfolio) can get through difficult times of market volatility and declines. Nobody wants to spend less because the market is down. But you can control what you spend.

References:

  1. https://investornews.vanguard/what-stay-the-course-means-if-youre-retired/
  2. https://investornews.vanguard/staying-the-course-really-matters/

Inflationary Pressures are a Real and Present Concern

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“Inflation jumped 5 percent in the past year, the fastest pace in 13 years.”

Inflation in the US has jumped to the highest rate since 2008.  For the past decade, inflation has averaged under 2 percent a year. But suddenly, inflation is rising much faster than anticipated and planned by the Federal Reserve. For instance, inflation rose 5 percent between May 2020 and May 2021, the Labor Department reported.

Inflation results when demand exceeds supply in an economy. When the economy grows faster than its ability to provide goods and services demanded by consumers, prices rise. When the economy grows more slowly than its potential growth rate, prices tend to fall. Factors that affect an economy’s growth rate include the supply of labor and the productivity of those workers.

Inflation is imply defined as the price of a good or service increasing over time. Conversely, you can also define inflation by looking at the value of the dollars purchasing those goods and services. Said another way, while you might agreed that the price of good and services have increased, you can also state the dollars you spend now purchase less quantity of goods and services … and by extension, the dollars themselves are clearly worth less.

Money supply and budget deficits

We’ve learned that inflation is, “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” according to economist Milton Friedman. Money supply growth is a requirement, but in and of itself, it’s not enough to cause inflation. The money needs to find its way into the economy and turnover rapidly to generate inflation. (This is referred to as the velocity of money or ratio of M2 money supply to gross domestic product, or GDP.) In recent years, the velocity of money has fallen sharply.

Rising budget deficits are not necessarily linked to inflation, either, but can contribute to an overheating economy. It all depends on whether it stimulates demand to exceed supply. From a long-term perspective, there has been little correlation in recent years between the level of debt in the economy and inflation.

The causes of present inflation and the primary explanations are:

  • Pent-up demand following the COVID-19 shutdown.
  • Base effects (essentially older low values rolling off).
  • A massive increase in the supply of dollars.

Rising Prices 

“Inflation is taxation without legislation.” – Milton Friedman.

With commodity prices soaring, money supply growth exploding, and government spending surging, there is a palpable fear of a return to 1970s-style inflation. I get it. I remember those times.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile items such as food and energy, leaped to the highest level since 1992. It rose 3.8% year-on-year, up from 3% in April.
Other official data showed that the number of initial claims for jobless benefits fell to its lowest since mid-March 2020, when the first wave of Covid-19 hit.

The cost of used cars and trucks climbed 7.3% in May from April, accounting for a third of the increase in inflation. Prices were 29.7% higher than a year earlier. They have risen in recent months because of a global semiconductor shortage that has held back car production, pushing people to enter the market for second-hand vehicles instead.

Energy prices rose, by 28.5% year-on-year, including a 56% jump in gasoline prices compared with May 2020, when demand slumped due to the pandemic. And, gasoline prices are destined to go higher with the cancelation of the cross-border permit for the Keystone XL pipeline and suspension of the program for oil and gas leasing on federal lands and waters.

The cost of flights, household furnishings, new cars, rental cars and clothing rose during May.


 

What should investors do?

In response to inflation, investors should:

  • Must become awareness of inflation. Inflation is likely to increase throughout the year (and perhaps further), and bonds are likely to at least be less of a stalwart than they have over the past 40 years. It is important to realize that is possible and you should all be prepared for lower near-term performance in fixed income markets.
  • Diversification is key. Equities, for example, have historically been a reasonable asset during certain inflationary periods as companies can often pass through increased costs.
  • Explore other forms of inflation protection, as well as a broader diversification of fixed income instruments.

Inflation is clearly present for U.S. consumers in the grocery stores, at gas stations and in vehicle sales. Fears over rising prices has investors fearing that pent-up demand and supply chain bottlenecks would create inflationary pressures, and force the Federal Reserve to “tamper” their monetary stimulus program and dampen demand by increasing interest rates.

References:

  1. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
  2. https://blog.massmutual.com/post/markets-inflation-vanderburg
  3. https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/is-1970s-style-inflation-coming-back
  4. https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/schwab-market-update
  5. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jun/10/us-inflation-highest-rate-stocks-consumer-price-index