Category Archives: Economy

Looming Threat of Inflation

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“Inflation destroys savings, impedes planning, and discourages investment. That means less productivity and a lower standard of living.” Kevin Brady

Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors, is concerned about inflation increasing faster than the Federal Reserve anticipates. Wesbury said that he is focused on the rapid increase in the M2 measure of the money supply. This measure has soared since COVID-19 hit the US, up about 25% from a year ago, the fastest growth on record.

From his viewpoint, the rapid increase in M2 is the key difference between the current situation and the situation in the aftermath of the Financial Crisis of 2008-09. During that first round of Quantitative Easing and big spending bills (like TARP), the M2 measure remained subdued because the Fed kept banks from lending, in part by raising capital standards. As a result, inflation remained subdued as well.

The late great economist Milton Friedman stress that policy makers watch M2: Nominal economic growth and inflation will tend to track M2 broadly over time, adjusted for any fluctuations in the velocity of money, the speed with which money circulates through the economy.

The US economy is healing faster than expected, while the US Congress and President Biden are intent on pouring at least one more massive government spending stimulus into the system, according to Wesbury. They are doing this even though the pandemic is waning, and a double-dip recession seems highly unlikely.

The big risk for the next couple of years is an upward surge in inflation that’s larger than anything we’ve experienced in the past couple of decades.

“I think the inflation prospects for the U.S. over the next five or six, seven years, are quite serious. You cannot have a bumper crop in apples without the value or the price of each apple falling. The Fed has had the largest increase in the monetary base in the history of the U.S., from colonial times to the present, times ten.” Arthur Laffer, an Economist known for his tax revenue theory called the Laffer Curve

He still project 2.5% CPI inflation for 2021, as the government’s measure of housing rents holds the top-line inflation number down. But commodity prices are likely to continue rising and overall inflation will as well in in 2022 and beyond. There is an old saying: When the Fed is not worried about inflation, Wesbury states, “the market should be worried.”

References:

  1.  https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2021/3/1/powell-disses-uncle-milty

COVID-19 Pandemic End is in Sight

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“When it comes to COVID-19, we are optimistic that the end of the beginning is near.” Bill Gates

Billionaire philanthropist and Microsoft Founder Bill Gates believes that we will get COVID-19 under control in calendar 2021. What he means by “under control” is that America and the world will be heading back to something approaching normal again.

Gates is optimistic that the number of cases and deaths will start to go down—at least in wealthy countries—and life will be much closer to normal than it is now for two main reasons:

  • One is that masks, social distancing, and other interventions can slow the spread of the virus and save lives while vaccines are being rolled out.
  • The other reason is that in the spring of 2021, the vaccines and treatments will start reaching the scale where they’ll have a global impact.

In Gates’ view, the coronavirus is somewhat seasonal. He suggests that once the Northern Hemisphere gets into summer, the numbers should go way down, and he expects that countries will not experience another COVID-19 wave in the fall.

He stresses that vaccinations by the fall should be “bearing the brunt” of ending the pandemic. He feels that there will still be some COVID restrictions on public gatherings, because, as “long as the disease is out there in other countries, you can still get big chains of infection anywhere on the globe”.

But if we get the vaccination levels up within the communities and across the globe this fall, all the schools will be able to reopen under some protocol. Moreover, entertainment, travel and hospitality will be open. And, the economy will be on the mend in a big way. The good news according to Bill Gates is that the pandemic, as bad as it’s been, the end is in sight.

“Humans have never made more progress on any disease in a year than the world did on COVID-19 this year”, Gates wrote in a recent Gatesnote. “Under normal circumstances, creating a vaccine can take 10 years. This time, multiple vaccines were created in less than one year.”

The Bill and Melinda Gates foundation has invested more than $1.75 billion in the fight against COVID-19. Most of that funding has gone toward producing and procuring crucial medical supplies. For example, the foundation backed researchers developing new COVID-19 treatments including monoclonal antibodies, and they worked with partners to ensure that these drugs are formulated in a way that’s easy to transport and use in the poorest parts of the world so they benefit people everywhere. Which is pretty remarkable—especially considering that COVID-19 was a virtually unknown pathogen at the beginning of 2020 and how rigorous the process is for proving a vaccine’s safety and efficacy. The vaccine still had to meet strict guidelines before being approved.

References:

  1. https://www.gatesnotes.com/About-Bill-Gates/Year-in-Review-2020?WT.mc_id=20201222100000_YIR2020_BG-TW_&WT.tsrc=BGTW
  2. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/show/bill-gates-on-tackling-climate-change-and-the-ongoing-pandemic-response?__twitter_impression=true

Rising Bond Yield Leads to Market Sell-off | CNBC

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The culprit behind the recent stock market sell-off was the rapid rise in 10-Year U.S. Treasury bond yields. The 10-year Treasury yield remained above 1.4%, after surging to 1.6% in the previous day session to its highest level since February 2021 and more than 0.5% higher since the end of January, according to CNBC.

The spike in the 10-year yield , which is used as a benchmark for mortgage rates and auto loans, is reacting to positive economics as vaccines are rolled out and GDP forecasts improve, which should benefit corporate profits. But the move could also signal faster-than-expected inflation ahead. The sheer pace of the rise has also had the effect of dampening investors’ appetite for richly valued areas of the market like technology and other growth stocks. Higher rates reduce the value of future cash flows so they can have the effect of compressing equity valuations.

All three stock benchmarks — Dow Jones Industrial Average , Nasdaq and S&P500 — were tracking for weekly losses ahead of the final trading day of February. The Nasdaq was down nearly 7% from its February 12, 2021, record closing high. The Dow and S&P 500 both remain solidly in the green for the month. However, the S&P 500 was off almost 2.7% from its last record closing high, also on February 12, 2021, and the Dow had its worst day in nearly a month on Thursday.

Additionally, inflation concerns are being stoked on the thought that the $1.9 trillion COVID-19 stimulus bill — which passed the House of Representatives — on top of accelerating growth could overheat the economy.

Economists and investment managers say the bond market is reacting to positive economics as vaccines are rolled out and GDP forecasts improve, which should benefit corporate profits. But the move could also signal faster-than-expected inflation ahead.

References:

  1. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/26/5-things-to-know-before-the-stock-market-opens-feb-26-2021.html

What Every Woman Needs To Know About Her Money

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“The lion’s share of wealth, two-thirds of wealth in the United States, is going to end up in the hands of women by the year 2030.” Jean Chatzky

The women that Jean Chatzky, New York Times Bestselling Author and financial editor at the NBC TODAY Show, has talked with “share a lack of confidence” regarding managing and investing their money. “Whether we’ve got one hundred, one hundred thousand, or one million dollars, we don’t always feel equipped to manage it, even when we’re doing exactly the right things,” she explained.

In order to create a better world, Chatzky suggests women should, “…use this power that’s coming our way to improve not just our lives, but the lives of the people that we love and care about, and the causes that  we believe in. We really do have an opportunity through giving and investing to create the world we want.”

Women…”have an opportunity through giving and investing to create the world we want.” Jean Chatzky

Chatzky offers 15 tips to help you get a handle on your finances and to create the financial future you want for yourself.  A future that aligns with your goals, values and purpose in life.

1. Talk openly about money

Chatzky explains, “We gather groups of women who don’t make a habit of talking about money with the specific purpose of talking about money…and it’s really freeing.” One open ended question she asks is, “What do you want your money to do for you?”.

2. Track your spending to see what you really value

Do you want a clear picture of your spending? More so, do you want to uncover whether or not what you say are priorities are aligned with your expenditures?

3. Determine what your ideal life actually costs

“What do you want from your life?” This is a question Chatzky believe you need to consider so that you can determine what your ideal life actually costs. Write down what you want and next to each item, list the price to do or have it.

4. Use money as a resource to buy you more time

Money is a tool which creates freedom of time and choice. Chatzy shares, “The most important thing to realize is the opportunity that you’re wasting. Money we can get more of. Time, you absolutely can’t get more of…But by moving around some of our money, we can restructure our time in a way that feels much better, much more fulfilling, and much less stressful. We are so stressed, and using our money to swap for a little bit of extra time is one great way to reduce some of that stress.”

5. Identify your money scripts

“We all have stories around money which became ingrained as children. In some cases we mimic them, in others we rebel against them. In order to know where you’re going with your financial future, it’s helpful to identify the scripts that are overtly or subliminally impacting your views and habits around money,” advises Chatzky.

6. Find financial harmony in your primary relationship

Chatzy suggests, “Listening is the key to success within a relationship. You have to understand why your partner needs what they need as much as they need to understand what you need.”

7. Don’t let money injure your friendships

“Listen and read between the lines. We know an awful lot about our friends’ financial situations, even if they tell us not one thing. We see how they spend. We see how they manage. We know if they’re stressed financially. We just have to be a little bit empathetic and open-minded about the fact that they may not have the same choices or priorities that we have. And that doesn’t mean that we can’t be great friends,” shares Chatzky.

8. Teach your kids early

It can feel scary to talk to your kids about money, especially if you feel tentative about your own financial skills. Fortunately, it doesn’t have to be challenging: “Kids have to have money in order to learn to manage money.”

9. Get paid what you deserve

To charge or get paid what you deserve, “First, you must know what you deserve and once you know what that number is, you have to ask for it:

10. Negotiating won’t hurt your outcomes

The person on the other side of the table, they are waiting for you to negotiate, according to Chatzky. They’re not going to punish you for negotiating. You may not get the money. But asking is not going to hurt you.

11. To be or not to be (an entrepreneur)

30% of US businesses are women-owned, and that number is rising steadily.

12. Spend on others

Studies show that when you do for others, you’re guaranteed to feel happier. This includes when you spend on others. “There’s no sense in feeling guilty for spending money that’s not sabotaging our financial life”, says Chatzky.

13. Talk with aging parents

“If you haven’t had a conversation with your parents before you’ve hit age forty or they hit age seventy, it’s time”, she comments

14. Have a little fun with your money

Chatzky comes from a judgment-free zone when it comes to how you spend your money. But, “know how much it costs” since you earned that money and yours to do with as you want.

15. Consider your legacy

“You have to think about what’s important to you. That’s where a lot of us fall down when it comes to charitable giving”, Chatzky says.

Building wealth

If you want to build wealth, you need only do four things, according to Chatzky:

  1. Make a decent living.
  2. Spend less than you make.
  3. Invest the money you donʼt spend.
  4. Protect the financial world you build so that a disaster doesnʼt take it all away from you.

Building wealth sounds easy, so why is it so hard, particularly for women?  “Because women according to Chatzky, “make excuses”. We tell ourselves that we’re “just not good with money,” or that our husbands “like taking care of the finances.”

In short, “what successful women want from their money are: independence, security, choices, a better world, and–oh yes–way less stress, not just for themselves but for their kids, partners, parents, and friends.”

To read more: https://www.vunela.com/jean-chatzky-on-the-top-15-things-every-woman-needs-to-know-about-her-money/

References:

  1. https://www.vunela.com/jean-chatzky-on-the-top-15-things-every-woman-needs-to-know-about-her-money/
  2. https://www.jeanchatzky.com/books/

Vaccination and Economic Recovery

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As the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated, the economic recovery is dependent upon not only the course of the virus but also the vaccination progress. One silver lining is that some of the data trends, such as new cases and hospitalizations, appear to have peaked and are steadily improving. However, for a full return to normality, vaccinations for the majority of the population need to occur swiftly.

“Recovery will depend on the willingness of people to get on an airplane, stay in a hotel, and go out to dinner,” writes Raymond James chief economist Scott Brown. “A quicker rollout of vaccines will get us there sooner, but there is also a risk that vaccines will be less effective against new strains of the virus. Booster shots may be needed.”

The number of new daily COVID-19 cases has declined from recent highs, but remain elevated. Increased social distancing, whether state mandated or voluntary self-preservation, should slow the pace (and the economy) in the near term, according to Brown. The New York Fed’s Weekly Economic Index fell to -2.28% for the week ending January 23. The WEI is scaled to four- quarter GDP growth (for example, if the WEI reads -2% and the current level of the WEI persists for an entire quarter, we would expect, on average, GDP that quarter to be 2% lower than a year previously).

Yet, there are a few reasons for optimism.

  • First, President Biden’s original pledge of 100 doses in his first 100 days has been increased to 150 million as production and distribution capabilities expand. Purchasing 100 million doses of each of the high-efficacy Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is a positive.
  • Second, more experience should allow state administrators to improve communications and streamline the distribution process of the vaccine at the local level to maximize daily inoculations.
  • Third, while additional vaccines such as AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson have a lower efficacy rate than Modern and Pfizer, they will provide further accessibility (assuming emergency use authorization (EUA) is granted by the FDA) for people to receive some level of protection and hopefully avoid hospitalization.
  • The bottom line is that more effective distribution and additional second wave vaccine options keep the expectation of a return to normality for the US economy (and likely the rest of the world) around midyear. The biggest unknown and threat to this timeline remains the potential deterioration in vaccine effectiveness against the new mutations of the virus.

    • https://twitter.com/raymondjames/status/1353402346550644737?s=21

    References:

    1. https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/economy-policy/2021/01/29/weekly-economic-commentary

    Hurting long before Pandemic, failing companies took stimulus money then closed anyway

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    Stein Mart Inc. was in desperate financial shape long before COVID-19 forced closures at its discount department stores. During the past several years, the retailer had hemorrhaged tens of millions of dollars. Like many struggling businesses, the company in June 2020 turned to the federal government’s Paycheck Protection Program, or PPP, as a possible savior. The $10-million loan didn’t last long.

    Within two months, Stein Mart filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, citing more than $500 million in liabilities. The company closed all 280 stores and 9,000 workers lost their jobs. And, the company will never repay American taxpayers the $10-million.

    Nothing prevented Stein Mart from taking the PPP handout on its way under.

    Lenders participating in the Small Business Administration relief program shelled out more than $520 billion last year to millions of companies searching for a lifeline to stave off the economic impacts of COVID-19. Like Stein Mart, USA TODAY found that some were failing long before the pandemic hit.

    Josh Salman from USA Today explains how failing companies were able to take stimulus money and close anyway. USA Today

    To read more, go to: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2021/01/13/recipients-stimulus-funds-went-bankrupt-fired-workers-and-closed/3960382001/

    Top Five Global Investment Risks In 2021 | Charles Schwab

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    The top five global risks for investors in 2021 are all surprises to the consensus view:

    • Problems with the vaccine rollout,
    • Geopolitical and trade tensions do not subside,
    • Fiscal and/or monetary policy tightens,
    • A “zombie” economy, and
    • Interest rate/dollar shock.

    History demonstrates that the biggest financial risks in a typical year aren’t usually from out of left field (although a black swan did occur in 2020 with the COVID-19 outbreak). Rather, they are often hiding in plain sight.

    Risk appears when there is a very high degree of confidence among market participants in a specific outcome that doesn’t pan out. So, by identifying the unexpected, here are the top five downside global risks for investors in 2021. To read more: https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/top-five-global-investment-risks-2021?cmp=em-QYD

    Be prepared

    Whether or not these particular risks come to pass, a new year almost always brings surprises of one form or another. Having a well-balanced, diversified portfolio and being prepared with a plan in the event of an unexpected outcome are keys to successful investing.

    References:

    1. https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/top-five-global-investment-risks-2021?cmp=em-QYD

    Federal Stimulus and Relief Package Approved

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    Congress has finally finalized the details on a stimulus package with a catchall measure to fund all federal spending for the remainder of the fiscal year ending in September 2021. This was accomplished after months of political gamesmanship between the two parties and Congress was at the peak of its dysfunction at the expense and added suffering of the American public.

    Both chambers approved the measure and President Trump was expected to sign it. Final votes on the spending package were expected to approve it and clear it for Mr. Trump’s signature, but had yet to be scheduled. Once approved and signed, the emergency recovery plan would:

    • Provide funds for vaccine distribution.
    • Send direct payments of $600 to many Americans
    • Provide enhanced federal unemployment benefit payments of $300 per week until early spring
    • Provide food and rental assistance to millions of Americans, and
    • Provide hundreds of billions of dollars of relief to prop up small businesses, schools and other institutions struggling amid the pandemic.

    Without action by Congress before the end of the calendar year, two programs designed to expand and enhance unemployment benefits are set to expire in the coming days, leaving about 12 million Americans without federal support. A number of other benefits are set to expire at the end of the year.

    “We can finally report what our nation has needed to hear for a very long time,” Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky and the majority leader, said Sunday night. “More help is on the way.”

    Both chambers approved the measure on Sunday night, and President Trump was expected to sign it before midnight. Final votes on the spending package were expected as early as Monday to approve it and clear it for Mr. Trump’s signature, but had yet to be scheduled.

    References:

    1. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/us/politics/stimulus-deal-congress.html?referringSource=articleShare

    COVID-19 Fatigue Feeds Market’s Rise | Forbes

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    Managing risk should remain a key in life and in investing.

    There is very little that is typical about Thanksgiving 2020. The CDC and other U.S. public health experts requested that Americans avoid traveling, opening your home to people outside of your immediate family and hosting large gatherings on Thanksgiving.  

    Dr. Henry Walke, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Covid-19 incident manager, said during the press briefing, “Right now, especially as we’re seeing this sort of exponential growth in cases, and the opportunity to translocate disease or infection from one part of the country to another, it leads to our recommendation to avoid travel at this time.”   

    Yet, a lot of Americans aren’t heeding the warnings and recommendations of public health experts. In Florida, for example, popular restaurants and bars were packed with customers and had wait times for a table exceeding thirty minutes. Moreover, AAA projects that 50 million Americans will be traveling for Thanksgiving.

    https://twitter.com/i/events/1330235471012667392?s=21

    The surge of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and projected rise in related deaths combined with adverse economy effects is just the “right” condition for creating a double dip recession and bear market.

    Additionally, the dips could be fast and outsized because the surge is widespread and exponential. Moreover, it is occurring at a time of pervasive disregard for COVID-19 and stock market risks.

    COVID-19 resurgence

    During this COVID-19 pandemic and stock market runup, many people have been blaming “COVID-19 fatigue” for the reason they refuse to stand safely on the sidelines in safer assets and watch others ignore risks of a double dip recession and bear market, and ignoring warnings of exponential Coronavirus resurgence.

    There are “a confluence of troubling issues, challenging uncertainties and destructive possibilities that descend on the economy and financial markets”, according to Forbes.

    Focus on reality and risk

    The incoming economic data in the US suggests that the US may be in jeopardy of experiencing a double dip recession because of the latest Covid-19 resurgence. Moreover, the data also indicates that there is no healthcare – economy trade-off.

    Unemployment

    Recessions produce outsized unemployment with many unable to find work for over over six months – a reality that is apparenty present now.

    Consumer sentiment and spending

    Consumer spending is equivalent to about two-thirds of the GDP. It is especially dependent on both consumer income and consumer sentiment. Increased unemployment naturally reduces both items.

    Consumer spending, like GDP rebounded partially, but could stagnate or even fall due to higher unemployment and lower income, reflected by the decline in sentiment.

    Hope for best, prepare for worst

    Widely expected new government stimulus and broadly administered vaccinations are the current rationales for hope.

    But risks remain. With the prevailing risk to the economy and markets, coupled with COVID-19 resurgence and uncertainty, it may be a wise move to play it safe.

    References:

    1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntobey/2020/11/23/covid-19s-fatigue-feeds-stock-markets-rise–both-are-unhealthy/?sh=5b0d20301518
    2. https://newsroom.aaa.com/2020/11/fewer-americans-traveling-this-thanksgiving-amid-pandemic/

    Invest for the Long Term

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    When the market is uncertain, following your long-term financial plan will be the best approach for growing your money and long-term investing success.

    Like a roller coaster ride, keeping up with the constant change in the stock market can be an intense experience. And, although those periods of market uncertainty can be unsettling, the good news is that investors who stay the course and continue investing tend to do better over time. It can be tempting to sell at a loss when markets are low, and some wait too long on the sidelines and miss a window of opportunity. If you’re concerned about investing at the right time, you could dollar cost average your investments, which is investing smaller amounts at regular intervals, as opposed to investing a single lump sum at one time. By spreading out your payments, you can take advantage of market corrections and discounted pricing without having to try to figure out the optimal time.  The key is to stay calm and stick to your long-term plans.

    Consider the Big Picture

    Sometimes, we forget that what’s happening in the market today is really just a snapshot in time. History has shown that even after a slump, the market recovers. Even better, given the lower stock prices, a down market could be a good time to add to your portfolio. You’ll likely be in a good position to take advantage of future gains, especially if you don’t plan to cash out your investments for years.

    Turn Off the Noise

    Resist the urge to make investment decisions fueled by emotion or the day’s headlines. Stay focused on your goals and how long you have to achieve them. Here are some ideas to help you follow or tweak your plan calmly:

    Assess your goals.

    Consider how long you have to achieve your goals. What do you hope to accomplish in 5, 10, 20 years? How long do you have until retirement? If your goals need to be tweaked or you need to cash out some investments sooner than planned, be sure to talk to a financial advisor.

    Review asset allocation.

    Review how much you have in stocks, bonds, ETFs and cash. Is your portfolio still a good fit based on your age, goals and risk tolerance? If not, rebalance it to stay on target.

    Start or continue to invest.

    Investing your money is the most reliable way to create wealth over time.

    If you’re new to the investing world, it’s time to get started and make your money work for you.  Your goal is to grow your money, and investing will yield higher returns than traditional savings options.

    Continue contributing to your future.

    Keep making regular contributions to your retirement plan. Prioritize these contributions as part of your monthly budget, so you’ll continue growing account balances without even thinking about it. And, keep in mind—participating in an employer-sponsored retirement plan or contributing to an IRA provides you certain tax and other advantages.

    Investing may appearing daunting, especially if you’ve never invested in stocks, mutual funds or bonds before. However, if you figure out how you want to invest, why you want to invest, how much money you should invest, and your risk tolerance, you’ll be well positioned to make smart decisions with your money that will serve you well for decades to come.

    Whether you prefer a do-it-yourself investor or prefer to seek assistance from an advisor, it’s important for you to develop good financial habits and for you to make sound choices.

    References:

    1. https://www.fool.com/investing/how-to-invest/
    2. https://www.navyfederal.org/resources/articles/life/investments.php?cmpid=em%7Cnl%7Cresources%7Carticles%7Carticles%7Clife%7Cinvestments%7C11/20/2020%7C31689%7CA%7Ccb4.4