Category Archives: Finance

Bear Market Strategy

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Billionaire investor Warren Buffett, founder of Berkshire Hathaway, provided sage advice for sustaining wealth and sanity during a bear market in his 2016 letter to shareholders by conveying to “stay in the market and buy at a bargain”. Furthermore, Buffett wrote:

“During such scary periods, you should never forget two things: First, widespread fear is your friend as an investor, because it serves up bargain purchases. Second, personal fear is your enemy.” Warren Buffett

In other words, investors with a long-term perspective, a declining market can be a buying opportunity. Consider buying ownership shares of businesses with superior balance sheets and robust free cash flow when the market has them on sale.

Bear Markets

A bear market is Wall Street’s term for an index like the S&P 500, the Dow Jones industrials, or even an individual stock, that has fallen 20 percent or more from a from the peak. On average, bear markets last 14 months in the period since World War II. The S&P 500 index has fallen an average of 33 percent during bear markets in that time. The biggest decline since 1945 occurred in the 2007-2009 bear market.

One thing every investor needs to know about bear markets is that they always seem like the world is ending when you are in the middle of one. Time and time again, when recessions and bear markets occurred, the same thing always happened, they end.

Additionally, the U.S. has gone through many challenges in the past such as the September 11, 2001 (9/11) attack, and we will get through this current pandemic virus challenge as well. By keeping a positive outlook and focusing on the things you can control, we will get through this together.

Stocks Help Build Wealth

When you are looking to build wealth over your lifetime, the more time you have to invest in the stock market, the better your chances of building life-changing wealth.

If you set aside money every month and invested those funds into a diversified portfolio over your working career, you would have benefited from stellar returns on your investments in the stock markets during the last 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years.

Try investing a fixed dollar amount on a regular basis into equities. This practice will ensure that you are purchasing when markets are going down as well as going up. This practice is known as dollar cost averaging. Dollar cost averaging will ensure that you realize a better average cost over time.

This too shall pass

This period of uncertainty and challenge will soon pass and life will eventually return to normal. Businesses, places of worship and schools will begin to reopen, and governmental restrictions will be lifted. In the meantime, Americans must remain positive during periods of fear and uncertainty, help others where they can and display fortitude during this unusual period. We all must rely on one another, and we will get through this together.

References:

  1. https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2016ar/2016ar.pdf, pg 6
  2. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-analyzed-bear-markets-back-to-1835-and-heres-the-bad-news-and-the-good-about-the-current-slump-2020-03-11
  3. https://www.kiplinger.com/article/retirement/T047-C032-S014-financial-keys-to-help-weather-coronavirus-crisis.html

Financial Planning

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It’s not about how much money you earn. It’s what you do with the money that matters.

According to Schwab’s 2019 Modern Wealth Survey, more than 60 percent of Americans who have a written financial plan feel financially stable, while only a third of those without a written financial plan feel that same level of comfort. Those with a plan also maintain healthier money habits when it comes to saving and demonstrate good investing behavior.

The goal of financial planning is to make your money goals a reality. Smart financial planning and long term investing involves in the utmost, spending less than you earn, saving and investing a modest amount each month, and accumulating wealth to end up with the financial assets to retire comfortably for 30 years or more.

Developing a financial plan will require an investor to identify their short-, intermediate- and long-term goals, and to create a long term investment strategy for achieving them. Think of a financial plan as a written planning guide to remind you of what you want, where financially you want to be in the future, and what it will take to get there. Despite the benefits of planning, Schwab’s survey shows that only 28 percent of Americans have a financial plan in writing.

Financial Self assessment

A sound financial plan begins by outlining the investor’s goals as well as any significant constraints. Defining these elements is essential because the plan needs to fit the investor’s current reality. Before creating a financial plan, individuals should first perform a quick self-evaluation:

  • Are you currently spending more than you earn?
  • How much have you already saved?
  • What is your current net worth?
  • Have you created an emergency fund with three to six months of expenses?
  • Are you saving for kid’s college, retirement, or to purchase a home?
  • How much money is available for investing?
  • What is your risk tolerance?
  • Are you buying a stock for fundamental or technical reasons?
  • Which investing style do you prefer (e.g., growth or value, trend or countertrend)?
  • Determine your view of market sentiment: Is momentum generally tilted up or down?

Simple Financial Plan

“I believe that the biggest mistake that most people make when it comes to their retirement is they do not plan for it. They take the same route as Alice in the story from “Alice in Wonderland,” in which the cat tells Alice that surely, she will get somewhere as long as she walks long enough. It may not be exactly where you wanted to get to, but you certainly get somewhere.” Mark Singer, The Changing Landscape of Retirement – What You Don’t Know Could Hurt You

Regardless of the reams of evidence of how critical planning remains, Americans are not spending the time or resources to plan for their financial future or plan for retirement. However, it is relatively straightforward to create a plan. A simple financial plan will include many of the following parts:

  • A personal net worth statement—a snapshot of what you own and what you owe. This will help you know exactly where you stand, and also give you a benchmark against which you can measure your progress.
  • Cash flow is essentially income minus expenses—exactly how much money comes in and goes out every year, and understand if it is sustainable in the long term. The foundation for a budget includes identifying fixed and what’s discretionary expenses and if necessary, devise a debt management plan.
  • A budget–helps to manage your money, to consider your immediate needs and wants, and to prepare you to achieve your long-term financial goals
  • An Emergency fund–ensure adequate cash on hand to cover three to six months of living expenses to handle any unplanned expenses or loss of income.
  • A debt management plan—is a crucial part of becoming financially responsibilities. Debt can be used smartly to achieve one’s financial goals, or debt can be used poorly to buy things a person may not need with money he or she does not have.
  • A retirement plan—specifying how much you need to save each year to achieve the lifestyle you and your family hope to maintain. This includes a recommendation on how best to maximize Social Security benefits, to incorporate any pension funds and to utilize personal savings.
  • An analysis of how current investment portfolio aligns with short, intermediate and long-term goals.
  • A plan for college education funding offspring.
  • A review of employee benefits, including equity compensation or deferred income planning.
  • A review of insurance coverage—the key is to make sure that you have the right types and amounts and that you aren’t paying for unnecessary coverage.
  • Planning for special needs—for a child, parent, or other dependent.
  • Recommendations for creating or updating your estate plan, including charitable giving and legacy planning

Financial planning and managing your money:

  1. What are your long term financial goals including a retirement number and what does financial independence look like for you and your family lifestyle dream.
  2. Determine and track your financial net worth (assets – liabilities)
  3. Figure out your personal cash flow (income – expenses) that reflects the money coming in minus money going out…determine the source of money and where it is going…develop a budget.
  4. Align your financial goals to your spending.  Connect your spending habits to your priorities. Objective is to become financial independent in both the short and long term.
  5. Manage health, home owners, automobile, personal liability, long term care and life insurances to manage and mitigate your personal risks.
  6. Avoid debt and reduce taxes legally by starting your own business or investing in tax free or deferred assets.
  7. Create an investment plan and strategy for purchasing assets such as equities, real estate or a business. A plan helps an investor focus on long term goals and helps remove emotions (greed and fear) and bad behaviors from investment decisions.  Markets will always go up and down.  You only lose money if you sell assets and lock in the loss.  Buy real estate in great locations and companies doing sensible things and participate in global growth.
  8. Have a trust and estate plan in place to protect your assets. Ensure your goals and desires for your assets reflect your values and objectives.

Retirement and Financial Planning and Goals 

“Our goals can only be reached through a vehicle of a plan in which we must fervently believe, and upon which we must vigorously act. There is no other route to success.” Pablo Picasso

The first steps of retirement planning are to define your long term retirement and financial goals, to establish your number, and write a retirement plan. 

Any sound financial plan requires that you figure out your retirement expenses in advance. And, a retirement can now last 30 years. A retirement plan isn’t something you set up once and then leave unattended. A successful retirement plan takes patience, attention, and discipline.

  • Planning for retirement involves identifying assets and sources of income, and matching against retirement expenses.
  • Planning for retirement involves setting financial, health and emotional including spiritual retirement goals.

An individual may have a higher probability to achieve their goals if they have a specific savings number and long-term goals in mind, which can help keep an individual on track along the way. It gives someone a target against which they can measure progress.

Key elements of a strong financial plan:

  • An emergency fund
  • A budget to determine cash flow and calculating net worth
  • Paying down and avoiding debt
  • Health and disability insurance
  • Start saving and investing early, pay yourself first and put it on automatic
  • Pay yourself first
  • Create long term goals
  • Saving and investing for retirement and/or college
  • Saving and investing for shorter term goals like vacations or a home purchase
  • Trusts, wills and estate planning

It is important to find creative ways to spend less — such as exploring local or nearby attractions that are free or less expensive.

After creating your financial goal or plan, you are bound to have times when you don’t reach your goals or you diverge from your plan. But, just like with a diet, if you make a bad food choice, it doesn’t mean you throw out your new way of healthy eating or exercising. Same thing with financial goals and plan. Americans aren’t saving enough for retirement.

But how much is enough? Strategies to calculate the size of the nest egg you’ll need for your  golden years. But then life happens, and in life there are unknown variables and unexpected events that can throw a wrench into even the best-laid plans. Still, it’s better to have a plan, rather than to fly blindly into the sunset.

  • One popular rule of thumb is that you’ll need to have saved 10 times your final annual salary by the time you are 67.
  • Another way to calculate this ultimate goal is to look at current living expenses—annual or monthly—and assume that, in retirement, you will incur about 80% of those expenses.
  • Some retirement planning professionals suggest using “the 4% rule” to determine how much retirees can withdraw from their retirement account each year in order to provide a continuing income stream. 

Sock away as much as you can.

Power of Compound Interest

Use the power of compound interest —which is interest earned on top of interest — to potentially enhance returns.  Because compound interest builds on itself over time, investors who start early tend to have a significant advantage over those who wait,

compounding-no-amtd

Calculate how much money you may need once you get to retirement.

There are several common financial retirement concerns individuals have. Managing risks are important for retirees because retirees don’t have time to wait for a recovery of the economy or the market after a down period.

  • Investment Loss – One of the biggest financial fears retirees may have is investment loss. Because the markets move cyclically, there’s a good chance you’ll experience a market downturn during retirement.
  • Running Out of Money – Once you’re close to or in retirement, a market decline cannot be weathered and running out of money becomes a serious concern.
  • Major Health Event – As we get older, it’s common to see an increased need for health care. It’s natural, as a retiree, to worry about a major health event that can set you back financially. But it’s possible to prepare to some degree for such events.
  • Inflationary Effects – Inflation is sometimes considered the “quiet killer” of retirement. Over time, prices rise, making your money less valuable. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. Keeping up with inflation is an important part of retirement planning.

Although it may seem like a long way off, starting earlier can help you accumulate wealth and deal with unexpected bumps along the way. It’s important to consider:

  • What do you want out of retirement?
  • How much do you currently take in and spend?
  • How much will you need to maintain a comfortable lifestyle?

As a rule of thumb, you’ll need between 60-80%* of your current income to maintain your standard of living, but this will vary based upon how soon you enter retirement. To help you estimate these considerations use our tools below.

Financial independence and building wealth comes with the knowledge and financial literacy. It’s okay not to spend more than you earn and sacrifice short term benefit for long term financial independence. Think about the end goal — to secure your well being physically, emotionally and financially!

Manage Your Investments and Cash Flow

It’s easy to put things off until tomorrow… or maybe the next day. But with retirement, planning for cash flow (income) and nest egg are required today. And contributing regularly can help you accumulate assets faster.

Developing a financial plan, monthly budget and learning to stay within their boundaries will help you make these contributions. Additionally, your financial plan and budget will help you track your spending, cash flow, net worth and develop the discipline that can help you when you finally enter retirement.

When creating a budget, carefully weigh competing demands such as:

  • Paying off debt
  • Managing a mortgage
  • Taking a vacation
  • Raising a family
  • Saving for college or retirement

See how these financial considerations – and waiting to invest for retirement – can cost you in the long run.

Implement Your Plan

After assessing your situation, it’s time to look into available choices and then start investing. When weighing your options, consider:

  • How involved you want to be in managing your assets.
  • Whether there are any benefits to using your employer’s retirement plan.

Depending on your answers to these questions, some products may be better suited to your needs. If you’re the do-it-yourself-type, an index fund that mimics the S&P 500 may be the best choice. For those who aren’t comfortable with or don’t want to be managing their assets closely, a managed portfolio such as a target date fund might be the right way to get started.

Evaluate and Adjust Your Plan

It’s important to monitor your financial plan and investment strategy regularly. As your situation changes, you may need to adjust your allocations or investment strategy. No matter what plan you’re using, or whether you’re doing it on your own or with the help of a financial advisor, it’s important to evaluate your progress from time to time.

The starting point for financial planning start with goals you can achieve. If you don’t know where you’re going, how can you plan to get there? So before you get into the details of saving, budgeting and investing, take time to think about what’s most important to you and what you want your money to achieve.

  • Have an financial plan that is simple, goal oriented, realistic and actionable.
  • Understand your plan, follow it, and adjust it when things change in your life.

Put your plan into action.

  • Keep your portfolio diversified with an asset allocation that’s right for your risk tolerance—and stick with it.
  • Don’t wait. If you invest now, you’ll start earning sooner.

Stay on track.

  • Do periodic checkups to keep your portfolio healthy.
  • Keep in mind that long-term goals are more important than short-term performance.

References:

  1. https://www.aboutschwab.com/modernwealth2019
  2. https://www.brownleeglobal.com/saving-vs-investing/

Schwab Sector Views: New Sector Ratings for the New Year | Charles Schwab

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By Schwab Center for Financial Research

Macro environment:  Rising stocks and Treasury yields, fading U.S. dollar

We [Charles Schwab] continue to see a gap between the health of the manufacturing sector and that of the services sector and consumers. Despite recent U.S.-China trade war de-escalation, manufacturing activity remains under strain from ongoing tariffs, new tariff threats and still-elevated trade policy uncertainty, combined with slow global growth. On the other hand, the services sector continues to thrive amid strong consumer confidence and consumption, in large part due to a strong job market. 

While economic momentum overall has slowed, we do see signs of stabilization in both the United States and abroad. Accommodative monetary (central bank) and fiscal (tax cuts and government spending) policies have provided a strong tailwind for the global economy.

The signing of a “phase-one” trade deal between the U.S. and China, combined with congressional passage of the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade pact, have eased some trade uncertainty. Amid this apparent global economic revitalization and shrinking trade risk, Treasury bond yields have risen, the value of U.S. dollar has declined and U.S. stocks have advanced to record highs.

However, geopolitical risks—while reduced somewhat—remain elevated, and equity valuations are high. Given this combination, we think bouts of increased volatility and more frequent pullbacks are possible. This doesn’t necessarily mean the rally won’t keep going—it’s likely the strong momentum in stocks may continue until there is a catalyst sufficient to deflate the current extremely bullish investor sentiment—but the risks need to be considered.

— Read on www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/sector-views

Schwab Sector Views: New Sector Ratings for the New Year | Charles Schwab

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Macro environment:  Rising stocks and Treasury yields, fading U.S. dollar

We continue to see a gap between the health of the manufacturing sector and that of the services sector and consumers. Despite recent U.S.-China trade war de-escalation, manufacturing activity remains under strain from ongoing tariffs, new tariff threats and still-elevated trade policy uncertainty, combined with slow global growth. On the other hand, the services sector continues to thrive amid strong consumer confidence and consumption, in large part due to a strong job market. 

While economic momentum overall has slowed, we do see signs of stabilization in both the United States and abroad. Accommodative monetary (central bank) and fiscal (tax cuts and government spending) policies have provided a strong tailwind for the global economy. The signing of a “phase-one” trade deal between the U.S. and China, combined with congressional passage of the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade pact, have eased some trade uncertainty. Amid this apparent global economic revitalization and shrinking trade risk, Treasury bond yields have risen, the value of U.S. dollar has declined and U.S. stocks have advanced to record highs.

However, geopolitical risks—while reduced somewhat—remain elevated, and equity valuations are high. Given this combination, we think bouts of increased volatility and more frequent pullbacks are possible. This doesn’t necessarily mean the rally won’t keep going—it’s likely the strong momentum in stocks may continue until there is a catalyst sufficient to deflate the current extremely bullish investor sentiment—but the risks need to be considered.
— Read on www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/sector-views

Dividends Income Strategy

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“Do you know the only thing that gives me pleasure? It’s to see my dividends coming in.” John Rockefeller, founder of the Standard Oil Company

For retirees, dividends are a source for cash flow and a great form of income security in their post work years. For smart investors, dividend investments represent one of the closest things they can find to guaranteed income and possible capital appreciation.

John D. Rockefeller, founder of the Standard Oil Company and the world’s first billionaire, was a vocal advocate of dividends. He once commented that, “Do you know the only thing that gives me pleasure? It’s to see my dividends coming in.”

Dividend investing provides a steady income stream from the distributions of a company’s earnings to its shareholders. It works well for investors looking for long-term growth and for individuals preparing for or living in retirements who have a lower risk tolerance.

Dividend stocks are companies that pay shareholders a portion of earnings, or dividend, on a regular basis. These payments are funded by profits that a company generates but doesn’t need to retain to reinvest in the business. Dividend stocks are a major factor in the total return of the stock market. About 3,000 U.S. stocks pay a dividend at any given time.

Divdend income investor.

Dividend paying stocks are major sources of consistent income for investors. They can create income and wealth when returns from the equity market are highly volatile or at risk. Essentially, dividend–paying stocks have become an attractive alternative to bonds for investors looking for a reliable stream of investment income.

Companies that pay dividends generally act as a hedge against economic uncertainty and provide downside protection by providing payouts or sizable yields on a regular basis. If you’re looking to build wealth or generate income, dividend stocks are pretty hard to beat.

Dividend-focused stocks do not offer much price appreciation in strong bull markets. However, they do offer a steady stream of income along with the potential of capital gains. These are the major sources of consistent income for investors to create wealth when returns from the equity market are at risk.

Companies that pay out dividends generally act as a hedge against economic uncertainty or downturns. They tend to provide downside protection by offering payouts or sizable yields on a regular basis.

Dividend stocks offer solid returns in an era of ultralow bond yields and also hold the promise of price appreciation. The S&P 500 index’s yield was recently around 1.9%, about even with that of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note.

Dividends also offer a number of advantages beyond income, one being that qualified dividend income is taxed as a capital gain and at a lower rate than ordinary income receives. The top federal capital-gains tax rate is 23.8%. Payouts can also help buffer volatility in tumultuous markets, providing returns even during a market decline.

Dividend stocks can reduce the amount of volatility or beta in a portfolio. Essentially, dividend investing is boring, and lacks the thrill of a small cap tech stock with exponential revenue growth and avoids the volatility of small caps.

Dividend Payout Date

Getting a regular income from the companies investors own are a testament to their discipline, the health of their business, and their confidence in its future. Companies will announce when their dividend will be paid, the amount of the dividend, and the ex-dividend date. Investors must own the stock by the ex-dividend date to receive the dividend.

The ex-dividend date is extremely important to investors: Investors must own the stock by that date to receive the dividend. Investors who purchase the stock after the ex-dividend date will not be eligible to receive the dividend. Investors who sell the stock after the ex-dividend date are still entitled to receive the dividend, because they owned the shares as of the ex-dividend date.

Dividend Payout Ratio

Dividends are typically paid from company earnings, but not all dividends are created equally. If a company pays more in dividends than it earned, then the dividend might become unsustainable. Comparing dividend payments to a company’s net profit after tax is a simple way of reality-checking whether a dividend is sustainable.

Unless there are extenuating circumstances, from the perspective of an investor who hopes to own the company for many years, a dividend payout ratio of above 100% is definitely a concern.

Another important check is to see if the free cash flow generated is sufficient to pay the dividend, which suggests dividends will be well covered by cash generated by the business and affordable from a cash perspective.

Still, if the company repeatedly paid a dividend greater than its profits and cash flow, investors should be concerned. Extraordinarily few companies are capable of persistently paying a dividend that is greater than their profits.

High Dividend Yield

A high dividend yield strategy does have several drawbacks. Those disadvantages include vulnerability to rising interest rates and the potential exposure to financially challenged companies that may have trouble maintaining and growing dividends. Since the stock prices of firms with stable cash flows tend to be more sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates than those with more-volatile cash flow streams.

With lower interest rates and the stock market trading at near all-time highs, the high dividend paying stocks and ETFs could be excellent picks at present. Dividend ETFs provide investors with a diversified portfolio of dividend-paying stocks that allows you to invest and collect income without having to do nearly the amount of research you’d need before buying a large number of the individual components.

Another source of income are preferred stocks. Preferred stocks are known for offering higher dividends than their common stock counterparts. In fact, they can be viewed as a safe haven in case of a market pullback as the S&P 500 is up nearly 24% so far this year.

Stocks with a history of above-average dividend yields typically can be a sign of companies with deteriorating business fundamentals. While that can be the case in certain situations, there are many companies with strong underlying fundamentals that are some of America’s largest and most stable companies.

Bottom line, don’t fall for a high dividend yield in a vacuum. It may not paint an accurate picture of the stock’s potential. Instead, look at the company’s fundamentals and determine how dividend payouts change over time. That may indicate a company’s financially stability. Also, it may illustrate long-term dividend potential.

Dividend-Growth Strategies

An investor should not buy dividend stocks just for the sake of dividends to generate income…they should also be seeking capital appreciation to keep up with inflation and mitigate the risk of the long term loss of buying power of the dollar, as well. The most successful dividend investors seek dividend paying stocks that have the potential to grow their dividend each year.

Dividend payers with a history of dividend growth over a prolonged stretch (10 years’ worth of dividend hikes) tend to be highly profitable, financially healthy businesses. While dividend growers prioritize delivering cash to their shareholders, they’re balancing that against investing in their own businesses. Such firms have often held up better than the broad market, as well as the universe of high-yielding stocks, in periods of economic and market weakness.

During the market downturn from early October 2007 through early March 2009, dividend appreciation stocks, such as Dividend Aristocrats, held up better as a category versus the broad market and versus high dividend yield benchmark.

Dividend-growth strategies also look appealing from the standpoint of inflation protection, in that income-focused investors receive a little “raise” when a company increases its dividend. Dividend-growth stocks will tend to hold up better in a period of rising bond yields than high-yielding stocks. That’s because dividend-growth stocks’ yields are more modest to begin with, so they’re less vulnerable to being swapped out when higher-yielding bonds come online.

The dependability of dividends is a big reason to consider dividends when buying stocks. Not every stock pay a dividend, but a steady, dependable dividend stream can provide a nice boost to a portfolio’s return.

Sources:

  1. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dividends-capital-gains-differ-195903726.html
  2. https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/stocks/all-about-dividends/why-dividends-matter

AT&T CEO Interview on CNBC Squawk Box

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Friday morning from the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, CNBC Squawk Box co-anchors Joe Kernen and Becky Quick interviewed AT&T CEO and Chairman, Randall Stephenson.

In this far ranging early morning interview, Randall discussed the current and future outlook of the large cap communications and entertainment company he leads.  Effectively, he stated that he was very bullish on the projected economic output in 2020 for the company.

He stressed that the top priority for the AT&T was to pay down the massive debt incurred from its acquisition of Time Warner.  He commented that the goal was to bring down debt to a ratio of 2.5X debt-to-EBITDA and this past year, they successfully paid off $30 billion in debt.  Additionally, Randall shared that AT&T realized a 45% total shareholder return in calendar year 2019.

Media Business

Overall, he commented that AT&T’s media business, renamed Warner Entertainment, is doing well.  In the short term, they expect to roll-out HBO Max in May 2020 which will feature Warner Bros. extensive inventory of content, including the TV series “Friends” and “The Big Bang Theory”. and content from Turner’s networks.

Currently, premium HBO streaming has approximately 30 million subscribers.  Those subscribers will automatically convert to HBO Max once the it comes on-line. He expects that HBO Max will grow to 50 million subscribers.

Financials

Activist shareholder, Elliot Management, bought a large stake in AT&T back in September 2019 and criticized the management and board leadership, and the direction of the company.  Elliot Management in a letter wrote that AT&T’s stock could potentially surge to above $60 a share by 2021 if the company “increased strategic focus, improved operational efficiency” and “enhanced leadership and oversight.”

Furthermore, Elliot Management questioned the company’s succession plan of tagging Warner Media’s CEO and AT&T COO, John Stankey, as CEO Randall Stephenson’s heir apparent.  They expressed concerns with Stankey’s decision making. his lack of experience operating and communications and entertainment company, and his ability to manage the conglomerate.

Bottom line is AT&T’s financial future appears highly dependent on the success of HBO Max growing paid subscriptions, management paying down the high level of corporate debt on its balance sheet, and developing a coherent strategy that can effectively discover and employ the synergies of AT&T’s diverse assets and enterprises.

Sources:  https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/07/att-ceo-randall-stephenson-on-promise-to-remain-ceo-through-2020.html?&qsearchterm=randall%20stephenson

10 Rules for Financial Success – Barron’s

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“Wealth isn’t about how much money you make – wealth is about how much money you save and invest.”

The true measure of financial success isn’t how much money you make—it’s how much you keep. That’s a function of how well you’re able to save money, protect it, and invest it over the long term.

Sadly, most Americans are lousy at this.

Even after a decade of steady economic expansion and record-breaking stock markets, almost two-thirds of earners would be hard-pressed to cover an unexpected $1,000 expense—a medical bill, car repair, or busted furnace—and more than 75% don’t save enough or invest skillfully enough to meet modest long-term retirement goals, according to Bankrate.com.

Even wealthy families aren’t getting it right: 70% lose wealth by their second generation, and 90% by their third. “Shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations,” as a saying often attributed to Andrew Carnegie goes.

What’s at the root of these bleak data? Stagnant salaries amid rising costs of health care, education, housing, and other big-ticket necessities have put a major strain on folks of all ages. But advisors point to a deeper issue: an almost universal lack of financial literacy.

“This is a much bigger problem than most people are aware of,” says Spuds Powell, managing director at Kayne Anderson Rudnick Wealth Management in Los Angeles. “I’m constantly amazed at how common it is for clients, even sophisticated ones, to be lacking in financial literacy.”

The ten rules for financial success are:

  1. Set goals
  2. Know what you’ve got and know what you need
  3. Save systematically
  4. Invest in your retirement plan
  5. Invest for growth
  6. Avoid bad debt
  7. Don’t overpay for anything
  8. Protect yourself
  9. Keep it simple
  10. Seek unbiased advice

— Read on www.barrons.com/articles/10-rules-for-financial-success-51558742435

Saving vs Investing

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“…(wealthly) people see every dollar as a ‘seed’ that can be planted to earn a hundred more dollars … then replanted to earn a thousand more dollars.”

T. Harv Eker, Secrets of the Millionaire Mind

Only about 55 percent of Americans invest in the stock market, according to a 2015 Gallup poll. For Americans to create and grow wealth, they must save and take steps to learn about and start investing.

Saving and investing often are used interchangeably, but there is a significant difference.

  • Saving is setting aside money you don’t spend now for emergencies or for a future purchase. It’s money you want to be able to access quickly, with little or no risk, and with the least amount of taxes.
  • Investing is buying assets such as stocks, bonds, mutual funds or real estate with the expectation that your investment will make money for you. Investments usually are selected to achieve long-term goals with increased risk and volatility. Generally speaking, investments can be categorized as income investments or growth investments through capital appreciation. 

Start Investing Early

One of the best ways to build wealth is by saving and investing over a long period of time. The earlier you start, the easier it is for your money to grow. If you have a workplace retirement plan, consider enrolling and maximizing your contribution—there are tax advantages and you may even be eligible for a match from your employer. Set up regular, automatic contributions. Investing early is especially important for retirement.

Make savings a priority

Keep your focus on your dreams and goals. Do the best you can to save and invest at least 15%-20%. It may not be always possible to hit that target every year due more pressing financial demands, but try. Your future depends on your efforts—make your retirement a priority.

Consider this …

If you deposited $2,000 in a savings account at 3 percent annual interest, it would grow to $3,612 in 20 years (before taxes). The same $2,000 invested in a stock mutual fund earning an average 10 percent a year would grow to $13,455 in 20 years (before taxes).

Reference:

  1. http://www.gallup.com/poll/182816/little-change-percentage-americans-invested-market.aspx

Corporations: Value Based and Purpose Driven

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“Doing good is good for business”

According to one corporate Chief Marketing Officer who spoke at CES 2020, sixty-three percent (63%) of global consumers purchase items from companies with purpose. Said another way, a majority of global consumers, either consciously or unconsciously, purchased goods and services from companies whose overriding purpose and values were to make the world better. Purpose must be more altruistic than just increasing shareholders returns through capital gains and growing revenue, cash flow, earnings and dividends.

Salesforce.com

Marc Benioff, founder and Co-CEO of Salesforce.com, strongly advocated that corporations, especially big technology companies, must be a force for good and that brands can play a major role in doing good. He conveyed the message during a C-Suite session this month at CES 2020 that businesses can be mutually financially successful, sustainable and philanthropic business. He stated the point that a business can and should successfully serve the interests of all stakeholders, which includes the planet. In his opinion, every corporate CEO should adopt a public school, public hospital or combat homelessness in the community they operate. In short, all stakeholders have to matter; and, the planet and local community are key stakeholders.

“Don’t read people’s lips; Watch their feet.”

Marc’s company, Salesforce.com, from its beginning is 1999, has made trust its major value and serving all stakeholders’ interests which include giving back to its community a core purpose. Putting action to their words, the company has directed one percent (1%) of corporate resources which is over $300 million (profits, equity, and time) into giving back to the community. He went as far as proposing a corporate tax to battle homelessness. As a result, Salesforce.com has been regularly ranked as one of the best places to work in America and has had a 4,000 percent return on investment (ROI) for their shareholders.

“Businesses are the greatest platform for change.”

In his opinion and how he designed Salesforce.com, businesses are the greatest platform for change and people are basically good; his intent when he left Oracle to start Salesforce.com was to create a company culture based on trust and optimized to enable employees to do good. He felt that “…purpose is defined by the company; it cannot be enforced”.

Stakeholder Capitalism

Stakeholder capitalism, Marc Benioff opined, is a more fair, a more just and a more equitable form of capitalism than its predecessor. It means paying men and women the same. It’s means embracing values of trust, truth and doing the right thing over time. He often asks technology companies’ CEO’s and boards what are their priorities, what are their highest values, and what is truly important to them. Since in his view, making money is easy; doing the right thing takes effort and dedication.

But, leadership is about who you are and what you do. CEO’s of major technology companies must look at their values and purpose. They must assess whether they’re using these influential platforms to make the world better or just to make money. Despite the recent negative news surrounding big technology companies like Facebook on issues of privacy and impacting the U.S. Presidential elections, Marc stated that they can do both…make the world better for all stakeholders and make money for shareholders.

Goals are Key

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“When you define your goals, you give your brain something new to look for and focus on. It’s as if you’re giving your mind a new set of eyes from which to see all the people, circumstances, conversations, resources, ideas, and creativity surrounding you.” Darren Hardy, author of Compound Effect

With goals, investors can create a realistic plan for achieving their investing objectives within a certain time frame. Since one of the biggest mistakes investors make is confusing investing with stock picking or trading. Ask many people how their money is invested and they might quickly jump to tell you the latest hot stock they’ve purchased and the investment thesis that explains why they think it’s going to take off.

Without an investment plan, what is the goal? Probably just to make some quick, easy money, which neuroscience has shown makes us feel good. Unfortunately, behavioral economics tells us that acting on such impulses tends not to end well. To be true to the term, investing must start with a specific goal corresponding to a set time horizon. The goal itself could be anything: buying a new car in two years; purchasing your first home in five years; or retiring in 40 years. What’s most important is to have the goal be the focus of your approach.

Once you’ve identified a goal, an investment plan can take shape. How much savings can you devote to it? How much time do you have? How realistic is the goal given the first two questions and the amount of risk you feel comfortable taking? If you choose to work with a Financial Advisor, he or she can help you find answers to these questions, and take you a long way to devising a strategy to help achieve that goal. 

Know your time horizon

How long do you plan to hold a stock and what purpose will it serve in your portfolio? Your trade time frame depends on your trading strategy. Generally speaking, traders fit into one of three categories:

  • Single-session traders are very active and are looking to gain from small price variations over very short periods of time.
  • Swing traders target trades that can be completed in a few days to a few weeks.
  • Position traders seek larger gains and recognize that it often takes longer than a few weeks to achieve them
  • Determine your entry strategy  Look for entry signals—for instance, divergences from trend lines and support levels—to help you place your trades. The signals you employ and the orders you use to make good on them hinge on your trading style and preferences.

Plan your exit

When it comes to an exit strategy, plan for two types of trades: those that go in your favor and those that don’t. You might be tempted to let favorable trades run, but don’t ignore opportunities to take some profits.

For example, when a trade is going your way, you could consider selling part of your position at your initial target price to make gains, while letting a portion run.

To prepare for when a trade moves against you, you can set sell stop orders underneath a stock’s support area, and if it breaks below that range, you can choose to sell.

Determine your position size

Trading is risky. A good trade plan will establish ground rules for how much you are willing to risk on any single trade. Say, for example, you don’t want to risk losing more than 2–3% of your account on a single trade, you could consider exercising portion control, or sizing positions to fit your budget.

Review your trade performance

Are you making or losing money with your trades? And importantly, do you understand why?

First, examine your trading history by calculating your theoretical “trade expectancy”—your average gain (or loss) per trade. To do this, figure out the percentage of your trades that have been profitable vs. unprofitable. This is known as your win/loss ratio. Next, compute your average gain for profitable trades and average loss for unprofitable trades. Then, subtract you average loss from your average gain to get your trade expectancy.

Profitable trades

A positive trade expectancy indicates that, overall, your trading was profitable. If your trade expectancy is negative, it’s probably time to review your exit criteria for trades.

The final step is to look at your individual trades and try to identify trends. Technical traders can review moving averages, for example, and see whether some were more profitable than others when used for setting stop orders (e.g., 20-day vs. 50-day).

Sticking to it

Even with a solid trade plan, emotions can knock you off course. This is particularly true when a trade has gone your way. Being on the winning side of a single trade is easy; it’s cultivating a continuum of winning trades that matters. Creating a trade plan is the first step in helping you think about the next trade.

Source:

  1. Lee Bohl, 5 Steps for a Smart Trade Plan, Fidelity Insights, November 21, 2019
    https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/5-steps-smart-trade-plan?cmp=em-QYD
  2. www.morganstanley.com/articles/having-goal-key-to-investing