Category Archives: Holiday Season

Daily COVID-19 Infections, Hospitalizations and Deaths Declining

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COVID-19 Cases Are Dropping Fast. Four reasons: social distancing, seasonality, seroprevalence, and shots.

COVID-19 is in retreat in America. New daily cases have plunged, and hospitalizations are down almost 50 percent in the past month. The reason for the decline range Americans’ good behavior in the past month combined with (mostly) warming weather across the Northern Hemisphere has slowed the pandemic’s growth; at the same time, partial immunity and vaccines have reduced the number of viable bodies that would allow the coronavirus to thrive.

The current decline of COVID-19 is crystal clear.

There has been a five-week downward trend in cases, according to data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The highest 7-day moving average occurred on January 11, 2021 and was 249,048. The current 7-day average is 77,385 cases, which is a 68.9% decline.

Furthermore, the 24.5% decrease in the 7-day average number of daily cases reported compared with the prior week also provides an encouraging sign of recent progress. Even with these declines, however, the 69,165 cases reported on February 17 remains higher than what was seen during either of the first two peaks in the pandemic.

Daily Trends in COVID-19 Cases

The numbers of new hospital admissions of patients with confirmed COVID-19 have decreased from the national peak of 18,006 admissions on January 5, 2021 to 6,841 admissions on February 16 (a 62% decrease). The average number of daily admissions fell by 21.8% compared to the previous week.

Nationally, the number of COVID-19 deaths continue to fluctuate. There has been over 500,000 total COVID-19 deaths reported with 2,601 new deaths reported as of February 23, 2021. The 7-day average number of new deaths decreased by 9% to 2,708** new deaths per day compared to the previous 7-day period.

Why the decline?

Americans’ good behavior in the past month combined with warming weather across the Northern Hemisphere to slow the pandemic’s growth; at the same time, partial immunity and vaccines have reduced the number of viable bodies that allow the coronavirus to thrive.

According to a piece that ran in the Atlantic.:

1. Behavior: Americans finally got on board with wearing a mask and social-distancing thing.

Officials pointed to Google mobility data that demonstrated that Americans withdrew into their homes after the winter holidays and hunkered down during the subsequent spike in cases that grew out of holiday season socializing. New hospital admissions for COVID-19 peaked in the second week of January—another sign that social distancing during the coldest month of the year bent the curve.

2. Seasonality: The coronavirus is perhaps seasonal and destined to decline.

Behavior can’t explain everything regarding the decline. Mask wearing, social distancing, and other virus-mitigating habits and behaviors had some impact. But bottomline, COVID-19 is in retreat across North America and Europe. Since January 1, daily cases are down 70 percent in the United Kingdom, 50 percent in Canada, and 30 percent in Portugal. This raises the possibility that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is seasonal.

Many viruses fare best in cold and dry conditions; they’re not well designed to thrive in warmer, sunnier, and more humid outdoor areas, Harvard epidemiologist Michael Mina told New York magazine. Each virus is a bundle of genes and protein encased in a fatty lipid molecule. This fatty shell breaks down more easily in warmer and more humid environmental conditions.

3. Partial immunity: The virus is running out of bodies to infect

The coronavirus needs bodies in order to survive and replicate, and it now has access to fewer welcome hosts. Fifteen to 30 percent of American adults have already been infected with COVID-19, according to CDC estimates.

America’s seroprevalence—that is, the number of people with coronavirus antibodies from a previous infection—is probably concentrated among people who had little opportunity to avoid the disease.

This is partial immunity among the very populations that have been most likely to contract the disease, perhaps narrowing the path forward for the original SARS-CoV-2.

4. Vaccines: Despite naysayers and a few reluctant family members, the shots work.

The vaccines are highly effective at preventing infection. But preventing infection is not all they do. Among those infected, they also reduce symptomatic illness. And among those with symptoms, they reduce long-term hospitalization and death to something like zero.

It’s simple to show why this period of declining hospitalizations should keep going. Assuming the CDC is correct that about 25 percent of adults have COVID-19 antibodies from a previous infection and add to that number the 10 percent of adults who have received vaccine shots since December, that would mean one-third of adults currently have some sort of protection, either from a previous infection or from a vaccine. Thus, sometime this spring, half of American adults should have some kind of coronavirus protection.

Although the pandemic is far from over, the U.S. has reached the beginning of the end of COVID-19 as a threat to the health-care system and the senior citizen population.

References:

  1. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
  2. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/02/why-covid-19-cases-are-falling-so-fast/618041/

Herd Immunity and the Vaccine

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Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community ― the herd ― becomes immune to a disease, according to the Mayo Clinic. This makes the spread from person to person unlikely. As a result, the whole community becomes protected — not just those who are immune.

Two paths to herd immunity — vaccines and infection.

Vaccines create immunity without causing illness or resulting complications. Herd immunity makes it possible to protect the population from a disease, including those who can’t be vaccinated, such as those with compromised immune systems.

Herd immunity can also be reached when a sufficient number of people in the population have recovered from a disease and have developed antibodies against future infection.

Experts estimate that 70% of the U.S. population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover from COVID-19 to create herd immunity and halt the epidemic. This amount of infection could lead to serious and potentially long-term complications and millions of deaths.

Since the risk of developing dangerous symptoms from COVID-19 may be greater in people who are older (over 65) or in people of any age who have other serious underlying health problems, such as heart or lung conditions, weakened immune systems, severe obesity, or diabetes. And if many people become seriously ill with COVID-19 simultaneously, the nation’s health care system could quickly become overwhelmed.

Until there is widespread COVID-19 vaccinations, it’s crucial to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus and protect individuals at increased risk of severe illness, including older adults and people of any age with underlying health conditions. To reduce the risk of infection:

  • Avoid large events and mass gatherings.
  • Avoid close contact (within about 6 feet, or 2 meters) with anyone who is sick or has symptoms.
  • Stay home as much as possible and keep distance between yourself and others (within about 6 feet, or 2 meters) if COVID-19 is spreading in your community, especially if you have a higher risk of serious illness. Keep in mind some people may have the COVID-19 virus and spread it to others, even if they don’t have symptoms or don’t know they have COVID-19.
  • Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, or use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer that contains at least 60% alcohol.
  • Wear a cloth face covering in public spaces where it’s difficult to avoid close contact with others, especially if you’re in an area with ongoing community spread. for health care providers.
  • Cover your mouth and nose with your elbow or a tissue when you cough or sneeze. Throw away the used tissue.
  • Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth.
  • Avoid sharing dishes, glasses, bedding and other household items if you’re sick.
  • Clean and disinfect high-touch surfaces, such as doorknobs, light switches, electronics and counters, daily.
  • Stay home from work, school and public areas if you’re sick, unless you’re going to get medical care. Avoid public transportation, taxis and ride-sharing if you’re sick.

To reduce the spread of COVID-19, everyone needs to continue to use masks, exercise proper hand hygiene, limit travel, avoid congregating, and maintain appropriate social distancing. 

References:

  1. https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808

Holiday Season Health and Safety Precautions

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U.S. states grapples with a resurgence of coronavirus infections and new lockdowns on local economies

As Americans prepare to celebrate the holidays with family and friends, it’s important to take precautions to keep everyone safe. As you prepare for your Thanksgiving, it is also important that family and friends should consider their local numbers and rates of COVID-19 cases when deciding to host or attend a holiday celebration.

Americans should consider safe alternatives to the traditional ways of celebrating. COVID-19 can easily pass from person to person through close contact and it is difficult to maintain a safe distance with high volume holiday season activities.

During this holiday season, public health experts offer the following health and safety recommendations:

Protecting Yourself from COVID-19 During Gatherings and Celebrations

  • Do not host or participate in any festivities if you have been diagnosed, exposed to, or awaiting results from a COVID-19 viral test.
  • Limit the number of attendees as much as possible.
  • Provide or encourage attendees to bring supplies to help you and others stay healthy (i.e. extra masks, hand sanitizer, and tissues).
  • All individuals should wash their hands or use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer frequently.
  • If someone feels ill during the holiday season, get tested for COVID-19 and avoid going out in public or being around at-risk individuals.
  • Older adults or persons with certain underlying medical conditions who are at increased risk of severe illness from COVID-19, or live or work with someone at increased risk of severe illness, should avoid in-person gatherings with people who do not live in their household.
  • Consider hosting an outdoor gathering rather than an indoor gathering.
  • Guests who have traveled from other areas or towns should distance themselves from people who are 65 or older and people of any age who have underlying health issues such as lung or heart disease.
  • Hosts entertaining at home should make sure frequently touched surfaces are cleaned and disinfected before and after gatherings.

Holiday Travel

  • People who are sick should not travel—even if symptoms are mild, infection can spread to others.
  • When traveling always wear a mask to keep your nose and mouth covered when in public places.
  • Avoid busy eating areas, such as restaurants during high volume mealtimes, if you plan to eat out at a restaurant.
  • If serving any food, consider having one person serve all the food so that multiple people are not handling the serving utensils.
  • If you are traveling to another state on a commercial flight, wear a mask and social distance as much as possible. If you feel ill upon return, get tested for COVID-19 as soon as possible.

STAY SAFE!!!

References:

  1. http://www.floridahealth.gov/newsroom/2020/11/111920-safe-and-healthy-holiday-season.pr.html