Category Archives: Hurricane

Ian: The Most Powerful Storm Ever to Hit the U.S. Mainland

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Florida, North and South Carolina faced a massive clean-up on Saturday from the destruction wrought by Hurricane Ian, after one of the most powerful storms ever to hit the U.S. mainland caused tens of billions of dollars in damage and killed more than 20 people, according to Reuters.

Ian, now a post-tropical cyclone, was weakening but still forecast to bring treacherous conditions to parts of the Carolinas, Virginia and West Virginia into Saturday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center.

“Major to record river flooding will continue across central Florida through next week. Limited flash, urban and small stream flooding is possible across the central Appalachians and the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend, with minor river flooding expected over the coastal Carolinas,” advises the National Hurricane Center.

The Category 4 major hurricane struck Florida’s Gulf Coast near Fort Meyers on Wednesday, with wind speeds of 150 mph, turning beach towns into disaster areas. And after landfall, it brought devastating winds and floods across Central Florida on Thursday.

Ian exhibited a larger wind field and radius of maximum winds than previous hurricanes. And, Ian tracked slowly across Florida after landfall, amplifying the effects of wind and water.

On Friday, Category 1 hurricane pummeled waterfront Georgetown, north of the historic city of Charleston in South Carolina, with wind speeds of 85 mph.

Roads were flooded and blocked by trees while a number of piers were damaged.

Around 1.7 million homes and businesses were without power in the Carolinas and Florida at 8:00 a.m. ET on Saturday, according to tracking website PowerOutage.us.

References:

  1. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/florida-carolinas-count-cost-one-worst-us-hurricanes-2022-10-01/
  2. https://www.rms.com/blog/2022/09/29/hurricane-ian-strongest-hurricane-in-southwest-florida-since-2004

Update: Tropical Storm Ian

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Tropical Storm Ian continues to bring dangerous wind, rain and storm surge conditions to parts of Northeast Florida and is expected to regenerate into a hurricane by Thursday evening,

At 2 EDT, Tropical Storm Ian is located 40 miles northeast of Cape Canaveral, FL, and is located 275 miles south of Charleston, SC. It has maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and is moving north by northeast at 9 mph.

A turn toward the north is expected late today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed Friday night. On the forecast track, Ian will approach the coast of South Carolina on Friday. The center will move farther inland across the Carolinas Friday night and Saturday.

Tropical Storm Ian continues to bring dangerous wind, rain, flash flooding and storm surge conditions to parts of Florida as it churns in the Atlantic Ocean. Ian is expected to become a hurricane again by Thursday evening and make landfall as a hurricane on Friday, with rapid weakening forecast after landfall. A hurricane warning has been issued for the entire South Carolina coast. A tropical storm warning has been extended northward to Duck, North Carolina.

The strongest winds right now from Ian are in northeast Florida (Jacksonville), where some gusts have topped 70 mph in Daytona Beach. Additionally, some gusts over 50 mph have been recorded in Gainesville and Jacksonville, and over 30 mph gusts have worked their way along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.

Ian is a large tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles from the center. A WeatherFlow station in New Smyrna Beach recently reported a sustained wind of 69 mph.

Source: National Hurricane Center

Update: Tropical Storm Ian

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Tropical Storm Ian is located east of Orlando and is moving over central Florida toward the east central coast of Florida. Ian has weakened to a tropical storm and is expected to turn north and north-northwest by Friday and Friday night.

At 8 AM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located 40 miles east of Orlando and 10 miles west of Cape Canaveral, FL.

Ian is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the north and north-northwest with an increase in forward speed Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move off the east-central coast of Florida soon and then approach the coast of South Carolina on Friday. The center will move farther inland across the Carolinas Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph with higher gusts. Some re-intensification is forecast, and Ian could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of South Carolina on Friday. Weakening is expected Friday night and Saturday after Ian moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles from the center. Daytona Beach International Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 60 mph and a gust to 70 mph.

Jacksonville International Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 26 mph and a gust to 41 mph.

STORM SURGE: There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge today through Friday along the coasts of northeast FL, GA, and SC. Residents in these areas should follow advice from local officials.

The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

  • Flagler/Volusia County Line to South Santee River…4-6 ft
  • St. Johns River north of Julington…3-5 ft
  • St. Johns River south of Julington…2-4 ft
  • South Santee River to Little River Inlet…2-4 ft
  • Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line…1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in parts of the warning area on the east and west coasts of Florida and should spread northward along the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts today through Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in northeastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina through Friday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall:

  • Northeast Florida, coastal Georgia and Lowcountry of South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12 inches.
  • Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across western North Carolina.

FLASH FLOODING: Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash and urban flooding, with major to record flooding along rivers, will continue across central Florida. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across portions of northeast Florida, southeastern Georgia, and eastern South Carolina tomorrow through the weekend. Locally considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is possible this weekend across portions of the southern Appalachians, where landslides will be possible as well. Limited flooding is possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two remains possible across east-central and northeast Florida through this morning. This threat will shift into the coastal Carolinas on Friday.

Source: National Hurricane Center

Update: Hurricane Ian

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Hurricane Ian, a powerful a Category 4 storm with winds just shy of Category 5 strength, will soon make landfall on Florida’s western coast. The hurricane’s eyewall is starting to move onshore now.

At 11 AM EDT, the eye of Hurricane Ian was located 45 miles West-Northwest of Naples, FL. Ian is moving toward the north-northeast at approximately 9 mph. This general motion with a reduction in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Thursday.

On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move onshore within the hurricane warning area in a few hours, move over central Florida tonight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday. Ian is forecast to turn northward on Friday and approach the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 155 mph with higher gusts. Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of Florida as a catastrophic hurricane. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Ian could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it approaches the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles. A Weatherflow station on Sanibel Island recently reported sustained winds of 58 mph with a gust to 75 mph.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone.

The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low.

The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

Hurricane Ian Update

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Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by late today, according to the National Weather Center (NWC).

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula by this evening, and along the west coast north of the Tampa Bay area and along portions of the east coast of Florida on Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in southeastern Florida in the Tropical Storm Watch area beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of Florida beginning early Wednesday, spreading up to Georgia and South Carolina on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in the Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday into early Thursday.

Residents in the Hurricane and Storm Surge Warning areas should rush all preparations to completion and follow the advice and evacuation orders of local officials, states the National Weather Center.

Life-threatening storm surge – one of many expected hazards with Hurricane Ian – along the west coast of Florida has prompted evacuation orders for some communities. Ken Graham, Director, National Weather Service, urges those residents to heed directions from officials!

Residents safety is at the heart of these tough decisions.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach significant heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide.