Category Archives: Indexes

Index Fund and Stock Investing

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“I’m extremely sceptical that anyone can do stockpicking well. The evidence is clear that simple low-cost index funds have outperformed 90 per cent actively managed funds over 10 years. A precious few stockpickers do outperform but there is no way to know in advance who they might be.” ~ Dr. Burton Malkiel

Burton Malkiel’s mission has been a multi-decades long advocate of index-based investing. In his book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, published in 1973, he championed the premise that short run changes in stock market prices are unpredictable and that trying to beat the market is a fool’s game

Currently, index-tracking strategies account for about 40 per cent of U.S. mutual fund assets. Mr Malkiel’s advice is to ignore swings in short-term sentiment and to follow the ideas that he has supported over half a century–invest in low cost index funds. “What you shouldn’t do is panic and sell out. It is invariably a mistake, contends Malkiel. “Rather than trying to find undervalued US stocks, maybe the best solution would be to buy and hold an index comprising all the securities available for investment globally.”

Invest in index-funds (low cost), and get international exposure. The US is only one third of the world economy, and other areas are growing quickly.

Investors cannot consistently beat the market or achieve outsized returns, so invest in low-cost, tax-efficient, broad-based index funds. Not only is it simple, but it’s likely to give you the best outcome as an individual investor.

Rules to stock investing

  1. Confine stock purchases to companies that appear able to sustain above-average earnings and cash flow growth for at least five years. Growth increases, earnings, dividends, and likely the multiple the market will pay for those earnings.
  2. Never pay more for a stock than can reasonably justified by a company’s intrinsic value. Not a perfect measure, but look at how stock trades relative to earnings and cash flow growth potential. Avoid stocks with many years of high growth priced in.
  3. It helps to buy stocks with the anticipated growth. Try to be where other investors will be a few months from now. Look for companies that have strong balance sheet and strong financial growth.
  4. Trade as little as possible. Ride the winners and sell the losers. Sell before end of each calendar year any stocks on which you have a loss. Don’t have patience for losing stocks whose fundamentals have changed. Losses can help less tax burden through tax loss harvesting.

According to Dr. Malkiel, you aren’t likely to win even with these sensible rules. That said, those with a penchant for investing in individual stocks of companies, may still enjoy the game and not want to give it up.

References:

  1. https://www.ft.com/content/c67c06ba-b19c-3341-9665-eb985e3f8d02
  2. https://calvinrosser.com/notes/random-walk-down-wall-street-burton-malkiel/

Dr. Burton Gordon Malkiel, Ph.D, the Chemical Bank Chairman’s Professor of Economics at Princeton University, is responsible for a revolution in the field of investment management. His book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, first published in 1973, used new research on asset returns and the performance of asset managers to recommend that all investors use passively managed “index” funds as the core of their investment portfolios.

Burton G. Malkiel: Index Funds and Bond Substitutes

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Burton Gordon Malkiel, the Chemical Bank Chairman’s Professor of Economics, has been responsible for a revolution in the field of investing and money management. And he’s also author of the widely influential investment book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street.

His book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, first published in 1973, used research on asset returns and the performance of asset managers to recommend that all investors would be wise to use passively managed total market “index” funds as the core of their investment portfolios. An index fund simply buys and holds the securities available in a particular investment market.

There were no publicly available index funds when Malkiel in a Random Walk first advanced this recommendation, and investment professionals loudly decried the idea. Today, indexing has been adopted around the world.

Additionally, Malkiel believes that investors “probably needs to take a bit more risk on that stable part of the portfolio”. One asset class that he recommends, instead of low yielding bonds, is preferred stocks. There are good-quality preferred stocks, which are basically fixed-income investments. They’re not as safe as bonds. Bonds have a prior claim on corporate earnings.

According to Malkiel, investors need some part of the portfolio to be in safe, bond like assets–such as preferred stocks, or what he calls bond substitutes, for at least some part of their portfolio.

He suggest a preferred stock of like JPMorgan Chase. He doesn’t think you’re taking an enormous amount of risk. The banks now have much more capital. They are constrained by the Federal Reserve in terms of what they can do and buying back stock and increasing their dividends. And with a portfolio of diversified, high-quality preferred stocks, one can earn a 5% yield.

And if one wants to take on even a bit more risk, there are high-quality common stocks that also yield 5% or more: a stock like IBM, which has a very well-covered dividend, yields over 5%; AT&T– you can think of basically blue chips and they might play a role.

Regarding diversification, investors do need some income-producing assets in their portfolio. But his recommendation is that you think in the diversification of not simply bonds, but maybe some bond substitutes. However, there is a trade-off; there is going to be a little more risk in the portfolio. And one needs to recognize that there is not a perfect solution.

But part of the solution for an investor, especially a retired investor, must be to revisit their spending rule. If one is worried about outliving one’s money, then the spending rate has to be less. In part, it means maybe a bit more belt-tightening.

There’s no easy answer to this. Malkiel wished there were an easy answer that there’s a riskless way to solve the problem. But there isn’t. In terms of wanting more safety, one ought to be saving more before retirement, and maybe the answer is to be spending less in retirement. Thus, on a relative-value basis, things like preferred stocks, and some of the blue chips that have good dividends, and dividends that have been rising over time, ought to play at least some role in the portfolio.

In this age of “financial repression”, where safe bonds yield next to nothing, an asset allocation of 40% bonds is too high, states Malkiel. Now, of course, there’s not just one figure that fits all. For some people it might be 60-40 would be OK. But, in general, the asset allocations that Malkiel recommended have a much larger equity allocation and a much smaller bond allocation. And if you look at the 12th edition of Random Walk book, you’ll find that he has generally reduced the fixed-income allocation and increased the equity allocation–different amounts for different age groups,

References:

  1. https://dof.princeton.edu/about/clerk-faculty/emeritus/burton-gordon-malkiel
  2. https://www.morningstar.com/articles/995453/burton-malkiel-i-am-not-a-big-fan-of-esg-investing

International Dividend Investing

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U.S. dividend stocks continue to sport relatively low yields compared with other assets, especially as bond yields climb amid the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike.

But, there are alternatives assets to U.S. dividend stocks…international stocks:

  • MSCI Europe index was yielding 3.4%,
  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 index was yielding 2%,
  • MSCI Emerging Markets index was at 3.1%.
  • S&P500 was yielding 1.6%.

“Outside the U.S., there’s more of a culture of returning capital to shareholders through dividends rather than buybacks,” says Julian McManus, a portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.

International stocks offer an higher yield than U.S. equities, though there are risks. Early in the pandemic, for example, dividend cuts went much deeper overseas than they did in the U.S.

Additionally, most countries impose a withholding tax on dividends paid to nonresidents. However, those withholding taxes, in many cases, can be credited against the U.S. shareholder’s U.S. tax liability, according to Robert Willens, a New York–based accounting and tax expert.

Another risk international dividends pose is that they can be more apt to get cut in economic downturns.

U.S. investors face a trade-off when it comes to international dividends: higher yields with higher risk.

References:

  1. Lawrence C. Strauss, Why Income Seekers Should Consider International Stocks, Barron’s, August 5, 2022.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/international-stocks-income-dividends-yield-51659585601

Four Secret to Investing Outperformance – Motley Foolo

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“The average investor’s portfolio lags the performance of the S&P 500 by nearly 4 percentage points.”

The average retail investor’s portfolio lags the performance of the S&P 500 by nearly 4 percentage points, a DALBAR study shows. The lag is a result of bad behaviors by investors because investors jumped into funds when they were already at a high mark—with lower returns in their future—and dumped funds when they were on the way down, without waiting for a rebound.

The returns received by investors vs. returns earned by funds based on Morningstar data

There are four secrets to outperformance, according to Motley Fool, and the secrets are simpler than you might expect.

  • You take market returns – According to a 2020 study by financial research company Dalbar, average investors earned about 5% annual growth in their accounts over the last 30 years. That’s roughly half the average growth rate of the S&P 500 in the same time frame. You can avoid lagging the S&P 500 index by 4% to 5%. If you invest in S&P 500 index funds, you should see performance that’s only a fraction below the index.
  • You stay calm – The Dalbar report finds that 70% of the average investors’ underperformance occurred in volatile markets. Specifically, most of the investors who performed the worst sold their securities when the market was in crisis. Had they held on to those investments, they would have ultimately fared better. The takeaway here is it’s usually best to stay calm and stay invested.
  • Selectively, you do the opposite of the crowd – When everyone else is selling, it’s often a good time to buy. By following best practices such as not investing in a downturn unless your finances are in order; not expecting a quick return; and investing in a “quality” stock of an established company with low or manageable debt, experienced leadership, and consistent cash flows and profits.
  • You buy and hold  – The Dalbar report also concludes that a buy-and-hold strategy with the S&P 500 would have returned more than the average investor’s portfolio. Buy-and-hold investing is the practice of investing in stocks and funds that you intend to keep for years or decades. To implement this approach, pick quality stocks or funds and hold them indefinitely. You might sell if the company changes in some fundamental way, but you won’t sell because the market’s having a temporary crisis.

Hopefully, these four secrets to beating the average investor sound easy. They are, as long as you can resist making emotional decisions.

The average investor can get anxious about market volatility, and that’s often when shortsighted decisions are made. Even investors who can tune out market noise sometimes find it hard to avoid tinkering with a portfolio that doesn’t seem to be growing as anticipated.

When it comes to investing, patience is a virtue.

References:

  1. https://investor.vanguard.com/investing/portfolio-management/performance-overview
  2. https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/22/4-secrets-to-beating-the-average-investor/

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

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There are 30 Dow Jones stocks designed to serve as a bellwether for the general U.S. stock market.

Founded in 1896 with 12 stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is one of the oldest stock market indexes and one of the most popular. It is designed to serve as a bellwether for the general U.S. stock market and an indictor of the overall U.S. economy. It is widely-recognized stock market indices. It measures the daily stock market movements of 30 U.S. publicly-traded companies listed on the NASDAQ or the  New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The 30 publicly-owned companies are considered leaders in the United States economy.

The index changes when one or more components experience financial distress that renders it a less important company in its sector when there is a significant shift in the economy that needs to be reflected in the composition.

Recent changes that occurred include:

  • March 2015, Apple replaced AT&T
  • September 2017, DowDuPont replaced DuPont. (Following the merger of Dow Chemical Company and DuPont)
  • July 2018, Wallgreens Boots Alliance Replaced General Electric

Other major stock indexes include the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite and the S&P 500 index — an index of the 500 largest companies in the United States.

The stock market historically performs similarly to the business cycle of the economy. A bear market (prices decrease 20% or more) occurs during a recession and a bull market (prices increase) during an expansion.

Business Cycle Phases.

The business cycle is the natural rise and fall of economic growth that occurs over time. The business cycle goes through four major phases: expansion, peak, contraction, and trough. The cycle is a useful tool for analyzing the economy.

References:

  1. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/dow-jones-industrial-average-djia/
  2. https://www.thebalance.com/dow-jones-closing-history-top-highs-and-lows-since-1929-3306174
  3. https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-business-cycle-3305912

Sage Advice: Stay Invested

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“If you’ve got $25,000, $50,000, $100,000, you’re better off paying off any debt you have because that’s a guaranteed return.” Mark Cuban

The late Jack Bogle was fond of saying, “Nobody knows nothing.”  Which demonstrates that predicting the future is always hard, but 2020 illustrated to us just how difficult it can be. If you would’ve predicted that U.S. domestic stocks would rise over 10% in the same year as a global pandemic, no one would have believed you.  But that’s what makes markets so complex and volatile, especially in 2020, a year unlike any other.

The real problem is that there are too many economic and financial market unknowns to consider in the coming years and decade. And, he says, we, as a nation, are not focusing on what he believes to be the single most important concern in the economy: the “soaring cost of health care”. There is also the soon to be problem of pandemic caused ballooning federal deficits and national debt as a percentage of GDP.

Elected officials seem content to continue to kick the health care cost can down the road. But, with all of the potential economic uncertainty and financial market volatility, it’s hard to know what to do when it comes to investing.

The U.S. stock market is the greatest wealth-creation tool in history.

Investing in the stock market allows you to become a partial owner of thousands of profitable and growing companies. And, when paired with the power of compounding, the market is what allows you to save for retirement.

Below are five pieces of advice for investors who are worried about the turbulent economy and volatile financial markets:

  1. Keep investing. Keep putting money away. Despite fluctuations in the market, Investors should continue to save. And if the market dips? That’s okay since a lower market can be beneficial for funding longer-term goals such as retirement and education. Saving is always a good idea, and if you can add to savings when the market is low, you may be in a better position when the market goes back up.
  2. Pay attention to asset allocation. A good starting point for asset allocation, according to most financial advisors is a portfolio consisting of 65% stocks and 35% bonds. That’s it. “Stay out of the exotic stuff,” he says, however, noting that the allocations of assets may change depending on age and circumstances. If you’re younger, for example, you might skew towards investing more in stocks: you have time to take more risks. However, if you’re older, you might consider putting more in bonds, typically more conservative and consistent. But don’t tilt too far in either direction, he warns, noting that you should pay attention to the norms.
  3. Diversification is the key to any successful portfolio, and for good reason–a well-diversified portfolio can help an investor weather through the most turbulent markets. Diversification is the practice of spreading money among different investments to reduce risk. Historically, stocks, bonds, and cash have not moved up and down at the same time. The rationale is that a portfolio constructed of different kinds of assets will, on average, yield higher long-term returns and lower the risk of any individual holding or security. Diversification is a strategy that can be neatly summed up as “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.”
  4. Expect lower returns. For years, the market was flush and paying out significant returns. That’s not going to continue. You should expect to see lower stock returns for the next 10-20 years, noting that 12% returns moving forward isn’t realistic. The same is true when it comes to bonds, he says, claiming that 6% returns are not in the cards. Managing those expectations is key.
  5. Don’t pay attention to fluctuating markets and keep putting money away so long as you are able. Remember that the markets – and your own investment strategy – may change over time. That shouldn’t make you so nervous that you bail. “Stay the course.”

If 2020 taught investors anything, it was, “Nobody knows nothing.”

It’s important to focus on saving and investing. You need to live below your means and invest the difference to accumulate wealth. There’s no backdoor trick around that fact.

References:

  1. https://investornews.vanguard/getting-started-with-investing/
  2. https://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2016/06/15/vanguard-founder-jack-bogle-talks-about-taxes-investing-and-the-election/

Index Fund Investing

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Successful investing always starts with a goal!

Source: Napkin Finance

Investing is for everyone and it can help you reach your financial goals. And, you don’t have to try to pick the winners in the stock market to achieve long-term investing success.

When investing, you don’t have to have tons of money, trade a lot, or employ sophisticated strategies. A proven strategy is just doing the “boring” thing of determining an appropriate asset mix (of stocks, bonds, cash and real estate), owning well-diversified, passively managed index funds, avoiding the herd following tendency to “buy high / sell low,” and sticking with that asset mix over time can help you reach your financial goals.

Even billionaire investor Warren Buffett, the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, has repeatedly recommended index funds. Buffett said at a shareholders’ conference, “In my view, for most people, the best thing to do is to own the S&P 500 index fund,”

An index fund is a professionally managed collection of stocks, bonds, or other investments that tries to match the returns of a specific index. They tend to:

  • Pool money from a group of investors and then buy the individual stocks or other securities that make up a particular index. That model helps to reduce the associated costs that fund managers charge, compared to those funds where someone is actively strategizing which investments to include.
  • Track the performance of a particular market benchmark, like the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones Industrial Average. They’re a form of passive investing, because they allow investors to buy a lot of assets at once and hold them for the long term.
  • Offer instant diversification for a portfolio, which helps reduce risk. They also tend to be low-cost investment options, which is a big reason why they’re popular with investors.

While individual stock prices can fluctuate wildly, the broader index tends to go up over time — and with index funds, you don’t have to pick the winning stocks to benefit from the market’s overall gains.

Although all index funds track an index, according to Napkin Finance, what they invest in can vary widely:

  • U.S. stocks—some index funds track a well-known U.S. index, like the S&P or the Dow.
  • Global stocks—some try to essentially track the entire global stock market.
  • A specific industry—some index funds focus only on tech or healthcare stocks or those of another industry.
  • A particular region or country—there are index funds that track only investments in Japan, South America, or other regions.
  • Bonds—some index funds try to track the whole bond market, while others focus on a specific slice.
  • Alternatives—there are index funds that track oil, gold, real estate, and more.

Putting your money to work

There are some inherent risks that come with investing in the stock market, but investing also offers a higher rate of return than the interest rates you’ll earn on a savings account. The S&P 500, an index representing the 500 largest U.S. companies, has delivered average annual returns of almost 10% going back 90-plus years.

You don’t have to be an expert or professional investor to be successful. Index funds are a low cost and easy way to beef up the diversification of your portfolio. Additionally, they are relatively low cost and you don’t need a lot of index funds to achieve diversification.

References:

  1. https://napkinfinance.com/napkin/index-fund/
  2. https://grow.acorns.com/warren-buffett-index-funds/
  3. https://rajn.co/warren-buffett-quotes-investing-business-stocks-risk-debt/
  4. https://grow.acorns.com/why-index-funds-are-often-the-best-way-to-invest/

First-Time Investors should Stop Chasing Hot Stocks | TheStreet

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“Your savings rate is…the biggest determinant of how you do financially over time.” Christine Benz, the director of personal finance for investment research firm Morningstar

As the stock markets plunged across the globe in March, a wave of Americans saw an opportunity to start investing. But chasing hot stocks like Apple, Tesla or Amazon, according to financial experts, is akin to making the same old ‘tried and true’ investment mistakes as our forefathers and foremothers.

“Individual stocks are terrible investments for people just starting out,” according to Christine Benz, the director of personal finance for investment research firm Morningstar.

Active investing strategies, such as buying and selling individual stocks on trading platforms like Robinhood, often underperforms over the long-term versus more passive investment strategies, such as investing in low cost index funds that simply follow a stock market index like the S&P 500.

While chasing hot stocks may seem thrilling in the short-term while you’re winning, the keys to financial success and security are incredibly mundane. They include:

  • Creating and following a financial plan;
  • Disciplined and deliberate savings;
  • Investing for the long-term;
  • Time in the market beats timing the market;
  • Investing in market index mutual funds and ETFs; and
  • Diversification and asset allocation.

Read more: https://www.thestreet.com/personal-finance/first-time-investors-stop-chasing-hot-stocks-do-this-instead-nw

Most explosive stock market rally in history

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We’re witnessing the most explosive stock market in history. We’re seeing a spectacular stock market rally.

We’ve witnessed the greatest 50-day rally in the history of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 has increased 37% over the past 50-days.

Ten weeks ago, March 23, 2020, the Dow dropped all the way to 18,591 points. The biggest gain ever in such a short timeframe. Today, June 4, 2020, the Dow Jones index has peaked above 26,274 points.

Why…T.I.N.A. (There is no alternative to stocks)

There are fewer publicly traded companies to invest in today than thirty years ago. In the 1990’s, there were about 8,000 companies listed on American stock exchanges. Today, there are about 4,000 publicly traded companies on American stock exchanges which represents a fifty percent cut.

Furthermore, there are fewer shares of company stocks available to be traded. Share buy-backs by U.S. companies have taken 20% of companies’ shares off the market.

Essentially, the number of available shares have been dramatically cut, yet the demand for share have been vastly increased the demand for shares. The market is awash in cash from the Federal Reserve loose monetary policy and trillions of dollars from 401K plans.

Economics 101 reveals that cutting the supply of stocks while increasing the demand for stocks cause the price of stocks to go up.

And don’t forget about investor psychology, the economy has entered the return to work phase and the economy is on the move again. Animal Spirits are on the rise again.

Regarding the S&P 500 index, 159 stocks in the index are up for the year an average of 13% / 350 are down year-to-date an average of 20%. And, there are $4 trillion still sitting on the sidelines in money market accounts.

FOMO (Fear of missing out)

Fear of missing out can be extremely expensive. When the equity market has explosive moves where it goes up this high and this fast, an investor can feel that they’re “being left out and left behind”. As a result, they start paying top dollar for expensive and overbought stocks. That is no longer investing…investors are buying high hoping for higher.

Sources: CNBC and Fox Business News