Category Archives: Inflation

Stimulus, Inflation, Unsustainable Debt and America | Fidelity Investments and Peterson Foundation

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“America has been on an unsustainable fiscal path for many years, since long before this pandemic.” The Peter G. Peterson Foundation

  • The new $1.9 trillion stimulus spending package, on top of trillions already spent to revive the economy, is driving the national debt to unprecedented levels.
  • History shows that high government debt often leads to inflation, and an uptick in inflation is expected this year as the economy recovers.

The $1.9 trillion federal stimulus package will help many families, businesses, and state and local governments hard hit by the pandemic. But it is also fueling concerns about the ballooning federal debt, inflation, and how investors can protect themselves.

The Congressional Budget Office projected that the federal budget deficit will rise during the second half of the decade and climb steadily over the following 20 years.  By 2051, the federal debt is expected to double as a share of the economy.

The projections by the nonpartisan office forecast a more challenging long-term outlook, as interest costs on the national debt rise and federal spending on health programs swells along with an aging population.  “A growing debt burden could increase the risk of a fiscal crisis and higher inflation as well as undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar, making it more costly to finance public and private activity in international markets,” the CBO report said.

Our federal fiscal budget has structural problems, driven by well-known and predictable factors that include an aging population, rising healthcare costs and compounding interest—along with insufficient revenues to meet our commitments, according to The Peter G. Peterson Foundation.

Over the last 20 years, the federal government’s debt has grown faster than at any time since the end of World War II, running well ahead of economic growth. In addition to COVID-related spending, rising federal debt has been driven by longer-term trends including increasing Social Security and Medicare spending for an aging population. Today, according to the Congressional Budget Office, the federal debt is $22.5 trillion, more than 100% of gross domestic product (GDP).

Why debt matters

New Fidelity research suggests that higher debt can slow economic growth, and ultimately lead to higher inflation and more volatile financial markets. Warns Dirk Hofschire, senior vice president of asset allocation research at Fidelity Investments: “Debt in the world’s largest economies is fast becoming the most substantial risk in investing today.”

In the short term, Fidelity’s director of global macro Jurrien Timmer says a market consensus has emerged that inflation will rise in the second half of 2021: “An inflationary boom could result from the combination of COVID infections falling, vaccinations rising, ongoing massive fiscal stimulus, pent-up consumer demand, and low interest rates.”

FEDERAL DEBT IS ON AN UNSUSTAINABLE PATH

Longer term, Hofschire says, “The rise in debt is unsustainable. Historically, no country has perpetually increased its debt/GDP ratio. The highest levels of debt all topped out around 250% of GDP. Since 1900, 18 countries have hit a debt/GDP level of 100%, generally due to the need to pay for fighting world wars or extreme economic downturns such as the Great Depression. After hitting the 100% threshold, 10 countries reduced their debt, 7 increased it, and one kept its level of debt roughly the same.”

Only time will tell which way the US goes and when. But Hofschire thinks “government policies are likely to drift toward more inflationary options.” Among them:

  • Federal spending aimed at lower- and middle-income consumers
  • Increased public works spending not offset by higher taxes
  • Protectionist measures with a “made in America” rationale
  • Infrastructure upgrades targeting sectors such as renewable energy, 5G telecom, and health care
  • Higher inflation targeting by the Federal Reserve
  • Mandatory pay increases for workers benefiting from government assistance

In the longer term, if further free-spending fiscal policies are adopted while interest rates stay low and credit remains abundant, the likelihood of inflation could increase. But history suggests the magnitude and timing is uncertain. Many predicted an inflation surge the last time the federal government embarked on major fiscal and monetary stimulus after the global financial crisis, but inflation mostly failed to appear.

THE GROWING DEBT IS CAUSED BY A STRUCTURAL MISMATCH BETWEEN SPENDING AND REVENUES according to The Peterson Foundation

Why the national debt matters, according the The Peter G. Peterson Foundation:

  • High and rising federal debt matters because it reduces the county’s flexibility to plan for and respond to urgent crises.
  • Debt matters because growing interest costs make it harder to invest in our future — to build and sustain infrastructure, enhance education and support an economy that creates job growth and rising wages.
  • Debt matters because it threatens the safety net — critical programs like Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, SNAP and Unemployment Compensation are essential lifelines for the most vulnerable populations.
  • Debt matters because America faces emerging and ongoing challenges that will require fiscal resources to keep the country safe, secure and strong — challenges like socioeconomic injustice, climate change, affordable health care, wealth and income inequality, international conflicts and an increasingly complex and competitive global economy.
  • Debt matters because the nation should care about its children and grandchildren. Borrowing more and more today reduces the opportunities and prosperity of the next generation.

The U.S. faces a range of complex, unprecedented health, economic and societal challenges, set against the backdrop of a poor fiscal outlook that was irresponsible and unsustainable before the crisis.

Building a brighter future for the next generation must become an essential priority for America, and the high cost of this health and economic crisis only makes that challenge more urgent. Once America has emerged from the pandemic, it will be more important than ever for its elected leaders to address the unsustainable fiscal outlook and manage the burgeoning national debt, to ensure that America is more prepared, better positioned for growth, and able to meet its moral obligation to future generations.

References:

  1. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57038
  2. https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/personal-finance/government-spending-2021?ccsource=email_weekly
  3. https://www.pgpf.org/what-does-the-national-debt-mean-for-americas-future

* The Peter G. Peterson Foundation is a non-profit, non-partisan organization that is dedicated to increasing public awareness of the nature and urgency of key fiscal challenges threatening America’s future, and to accelerating action on them. To address these challenges successfully, we work to bring Americans together to find and implement sensible, long-term solutions that transcend age, party lines and ideological divides in order to achieve real results.

Looming Threat of Inflation

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“Inflation destroys savings, impedes planning, and discourages investment. That means less productivity and a lower standard of living.” Kevin Brady

Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors, is concerned about inflation increasing faster than the Federal Reserve anticipates. Wesbury said that he is focused on the rapid increase in the M2 measure of the money supply. This measure has soared since COVID-19 hit the US, up about 25% from a year ago, the fastest growth on record.

From his viewpoint, the rapid increase in M2 is the key difference between the current situation and the situation in the aftermath of the Financial Crisis of 2008-09. During that first round of Quantitative Easing and big spending bills (like TARP), the M2 measure remained subdued because the Fed kept banks from lending, in part by raising capital standards. As a result, inflation remained subdued as well.

The late great economist Milton Friedman stress that policy makers watch M2: Nominal economic growth and inflation will tend to track M2 broadly over time, adjusted for any fluctuations in the velocity of money, the speed with which money circulates through the economy.

The US economy is healing faster than expected, while the US Congress and President Biden are intent on pouring at least one more massive government spending stimulus into the system, according to Wesbury. They are doing this even though the pandemic is waning, and a double-dip recession seems highly unlikely.

The big risk for the next couple of years is an upward surge in inflation that’s larger than anything we’ve experienced in the past couple of decades.

“I think the inflation prospects for the U.S. over the next five or six, seven years, are quite serious. You cannot have a bumper crop in apples without the value or the price of each apple falling. The Fed has had the largest increase in the monetary base in the history of the U.S., from colonial times to the present, times ten.” Arthur Laffer, an Economist known for his tax revenue theory called the Laffer Curve

He still project 2.5% CPI inflation for 2021, as the government’s measure of housing rents holds the top-line inflation number down. But commodity prices are likely to continue rising and overall inflation will as well in in 2022 and beyond. There is an old saying: When the Fed is not worried about inflation, Wesbury states, “the market should be worried.”

References:

  1.  https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2021/3/1/powell-disses-uncle-milty

Rising Bond Yield Leads to Market Sell-off | CNBC

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The culprit behind the recent stock market sell-off was the rapid rise in 10-Year U.S. Treasury bond yields. The 10-year Treasury yield remained above 1.4%, after surging to 1.6% in the previous day session to its highest level since February 2021 and more than 0.5% higher since the end of January, according to CNBC.

The spike in the 10-year yield , which is used as a benchmark for mortgage rates and auto loans, is reacting to positive economics as vaccines are rolled out and GDP forecasts improve, which should benefit corporate profits. But the move could also signal faster-than-expected inflation ahead. The sheer pace of the rise has also had the effect of dampening investors’ appetite for richly valued areas of the market like technology and other growth stocks. Higher rates reduce the value of future cash flows so they can have the effect of compressing equity valuations.

All three stock benchmarks — Dow Jones Industrial Average , Nasdaq and S&P500 — were tracking for weekly losses ahead of the final trading day of February. The Nasdaq was down nearly 7% from its February 12, 2021, record closing high. The Dow and S&P 500 both remain solidly in the green for the month. However, the S&P 500 was off almost 2.7% from its last record closing high, also on February 12, 2021, and the Dow had its worst day in nearly a month on Thursday.

Additionally, inflation concerns are being stoked on the thought that the $1.9 trillion COVID-19 stimulus bill — which passed the House of Representatives — on top of accelerating growth could overheat the economy.

Economists and investment managers say the bond market is reacting to positive economics as vaccines are rolled out and GDP forecasts improve, which should benefit corporate profits. But the move could also signal faster-than-expected inflation ahead.

References:

  1. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/26/5-things-to-know-before-the-stock-market-opens-feb-26-2021.html