Category Archives: Interest Rate

Recession Causes

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Recessions occur typically when the demand for goods and services starts declining rapidly and steadily.

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity that lasts for months or even years. Experts declare a recession when a nation’s economy experiences negative gross domestic product (GDP), rising levels of unemployment, falling retail sales, and contracting measures of income and manufacturing for an extended period of time.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally defines the starting and ending dates of U.S. recessions. NBER’s definition of a recession is when “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”

Unemployment rate. NBER-dated recessions in gray. (Cart below)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

There is more than one cause for a recession to get started, from a sudden economic shock to fallout from uncontrolled inflation. According to Forbes Advisors, some of the main drivers of a recession are:

  • A sudden economic shock: An economic shock is a surprise problem that creates serious financial damage. In the 1970s, OPEC cut off the supply of oil to the U.S. without warning, causing a recession. The coronavirus outbreak, which shut down economies worldwide, is a more recent example of a sudden economic shock.
  • Excessive debt: When individuals or businesses take on too much debt, the cost of servicing the debt can grow to the point where they can’t pay their bills. Growing debt defaults and bankruptcies then capsize the economy. The housing bubble in 2007-8 that led to the Great Recession is a prime example of excessive debt causing a recession.
  • Asset bubbles: When investing decisions are driven by emotion, bad economic outcomes aren’t far behind. Investors can become too optimistic during a strong economy. Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan famously referred to this tendency as “irrational exuberance”. Irrational exuberance inflates stock market or real estate bubbles—and when the bubbles pop, panic selling can crash the market, causing a recession.
  • Too much inflation: Inflation is the steady, upward trend in prices over time. Inflation isn’t a bad thing per se, but excessive inflation is a dangerous phenomenon. Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, control inflation by raising interest rates, and higher interest rates depress economic activity. Out-of-control inflation was an ongoing problem in the U.S. in the 1970s. To break the cycle, the Federal Reserve rapidly raised interest rates, which caused a recession.
  • Too much deflation: While runaway inflation can create a recession, deflation can be even worse. Deflation is when prices decline over time, which causes wages to contract, which further depresses prices. When a deflationary feedback loop gets out of hand, people and business stop spending, which undermines the economy. Central banks and economists have few tools to fix the underlying problems that cause deflation.
  • Technological change: New inventions increase productivity and help the economy over the long term, but there can be short-term periods of adjustment to technological breakthroughs. In the 19th century, there were waves of labor-saving technological improvements. The Industrial Revolution made entire professions obsolete, sparking recessions and hard times.

According to NBER data, from 1945 to 2009, the average recession lasted 11 months. Over the past 22 years, the U.S. has gone through three recessions:

  • The Covid-19 Recession. The most recent recession began in February 2020 and lasted only two months, making it the shortest U.S. recession in history.
  • The Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009). The Great Recession was caused in part by a bubble in the real estate market. It lasted 18 months, almost double the length of recent U.S. recessions.
  • The Dot Com Recession (March 2001 to November 2001). At the turn of the millennium, the U.S. was facing several major economic problems, including fallout from the tech bubble crash and accounting scandals at companies like Enron, capped off by the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Together these troubles drove a brief recession, from which the economy quickly bounced back.

If there’s a silver lining, it’s that recessions do not last forever.

References:

  1. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/what-is-a-recession/
  2. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/economics/business-cycle/
  3. https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating

Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates

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“Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.” FOMC Report

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates 50 basis points (1/2 percent) on Wednesday in an effort to tame inflation that’s soaring at a 40-year high. And, the Fed anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is highly attentive to inflation risks. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run.

Short-term borrowing was nudged up a half a point, and consumers are going to feel the increase in their bank accounts.With a 50 basis-point interest rate hike, you can expect higher costs for:

  • Credit Cards – Your credit card’s interest rate will likely increase slightly within a couple of billing cycles. The size of that increase can vary based on your credit score and credit card provider. A 1% interest rate increase will likely only add a few dollars to your monthly interest payments on a few thousand dollars of outstanding debt. Current average interest rates are close to 16%, but they could be as high as 18.5% by the end of the year.
  • Mortgages – Mortgage interest rates are calculated based on multiple factors, like inflation and the housing supply — but they’re also affected indirectly by the federal funds rate, which influences how much banks pay to borrow money. When that rate increases, the interest on adjustable-rate mortgages tends to follow.
  • Other loans – The federal funds rate is used to calculate the lowest interest rate offered for loans, known as the prime rate. Any loan tied to the prime rate, known as adjustable-rate loans, will likely have a slight increase in interest rates.

If you currently have a fixed-rate loan, your payments won’t change. If you have an adjustable-rate loan, you should take some time to look at its terms, says Jacob Channel, a senior economic analyst at LendingTree: “The last thing you want is to think, ‘Oh, I have a few months before my rate goes up,’ and realize that the rate hike will kick in much sooner.”

References

  1. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220504a.htm
  2. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/04/3-things-thatll-get-more-expensive-after-the-feds-historic-rate-hike.html

Inflation Swindles Almost Everybody

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“If you feel you can dance in and out of securities in a way that defeats the inflation tax, I would like to be your broker — but not your partner.” Warren Buffett

During 2022 Berkshire-Hathaway’s annual shareholders meeting, chairman and CEO Warren Buffett stated, ‘Inflation swindles almost everybody’. Inflation is the decline of purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, the U.S. unit of currency. The rising prices of goods and services, often expressed as the inflation rate, means that a unit of currency effectively buys less than it did in prior years.

Buffett commented that inflation “swindles” equity investors. He elaborated that: “Inflation swindles the bond investor, too. It swindles the person who keeps their cash under their mattress. It swindles almost everybody.” Since inflation is largely a result of loose fiscal and monetary policy. This policy artificially inflated demand and effectively caused a supply/demand imbalance — the cure for which was rising prices to try and lower demand.

He stated that inflation also raises the amount of capital that companies need and that raising prices to maintain inflation-adjusted profits is not as simple as it may seem.

In Buffett’s opinion, “only gains in purchasing power represent real earnings on investment. If you (a) forego 10 hamburgers to purchase an investment; (b) receive dividends which, after tax, buy two hamburgers; and (c) receive, upon sale of your holdings, after-tax proceeds that will buy eight hamburgers, then (d) you have had no real income from your investment, no matter how much it appreciated in dollars. You may feel richer, but you won’t eat richer.”

Additionally, “High rates of inflation create a tax on capital that makes much corporate investment unwise – at least if measured by the criterion of a positive real investment return to owners”, states Buffett.

In a 1977 Fortune magazine article, Buffett conveyed his views on inflation: “The arithmetic makes it plain that inflation is a far more devastating tax than anything that has been enacted by our legislatures. The inflation tax has a fantastic ability to simply consume capital.”

He opined that the best protection against inflation is investing in your own skills.

During the shareholder’s meeting, Buffett observed that massive fiscal and monetary economic stimuli during the COVID-19 pandemic are the major reason for high inflation today: “You print loads of money, and money is going to be worth less.”

Buffett views inflation as a necessary consequence of the massive fiscal and monetary stimuli, which “artificially inflated demand and effectively caused a supply/demand imbalance”, to get the U.S. out of what could have been a COVID-19 induced depression.

“In my book, Jay Powell is a hero,” Buffett stated. “It’s very simple, he did what he had to do.”

References:

  1. https://www.investopedia.com/berkshire-hathaway-2022-annual-meeting-and-q1-earnings-5270362
  2. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-lessons-from-what-buffett-didnt-say-at-berkshire-hathaways-shareholder-meeting
  3. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation.asp
  4. https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/04/warren-buffett-secret-to-getting-rich-is-simpler/
  5. https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/27/3-timeless-warren-buffett-lessons-to-apply-right-n/
  6. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/12/warren-buffett-explains-how-to-invest-in-stocks-when-inflation-rises.html
  7. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/worried-about-inflation-heres-what-warren-buffett-says-berkshire-hathaway-is-doing/ar-AAWNjq6?ocid=uxbndlbing

U.S. GDP Contracted for the First Time since 2020Q2

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A recession is typically considered two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

U.S. economic activity contracted for the first time since mid-2020, with lingering supply chain constraints, inflation at its hottest rate since the early 1980s, expected interest rate increases announced by the Fed, and disruptions amid Russia’s war in Ukraine weighing on economic growth.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its initial estimate of first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).

The main metrics from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg, are:

  • GDP annualized, quarter-over-quarter: -1.4% vs. 1.0% expected, 6.9% in Q4
  • Personal Consumption: 2.7% vs. 3.5% expected, 2.5% in Q4
  • Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, quarter-over-quarter: 5.2% vs. 5.5% expected, 5.0% in Q4

What does the metrics all mean?

The economic metrics are important indicators of the state of the U.S. economy at the start of this calendar year — especially now as the U.S. braces for interest rate hikes to cool inflation and for the possibility of a recession in the near to medium term. A recession is typically considered two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

“It is unfortunate that this GDP rate did not meet expectations, but unsurprising as the U.S. economy remains very volatile with geopolitical turbulence from the war in Ukraine, a global supply chain crisis, increasing inflation and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic,” Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group, said in an email. “All of these factors have shrunk GDP growth rates around the globe.”

References:

  1. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q1-us-gdp-gross-domestic-product-economic-activity-190926750.html

I Bonds

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The main benefit of I Bonds is that they protect your cash from inflation. I bonds currently earn 7.21% through April 2022.

U.S. Treasury issued Series I savings bonds are a low-risk savings product. They are a good hedge against inflation (the “I” in the name stands for “inflation”), because during their lifetime they earn interest and are protected from inflation.

Inflation can be a very destructive economic force that reduces the value and purchasing power of your money over time. With inflation at a 40-year high, many investors are looking for ways to protect the value of their cash, and Series I bonds could be a good solution.

These Series I bonds have two interest rates:

  • A fixed rate that never changes for as long as you hold the bond — currently 0%
  • A variable inflation adjusted rate that changes every six months based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — current annual rate is 7.12% through April 2022.

The Treasury will announce the new I bond annual interest rate based on CPI in May, which might be higher or lower than the current rate.

You may purchase:

  • Electronic I bonds via TreasuryDirect.gov
  • Paper I bonds with your IRS tax refund via IRS Form 8888

I bonds are sold at face value and earn interest from the first of the month in the issue date. Interest is earned monthly and is compounded semiannually:  the interest the bond earned in the previous six months is added to the bond’s principal value; then, interest for the next six months is calculated using this adjusted principal.

Interest accrues until the bond reaches 30 years maturity or you cash the bond. You can’t access the interest payments until you cash the bond.

I bonds do not incur state or local taxes (SALT), but the bond owner will owe federal tax on the interest earnings unless the money is used for qualified education expenses.

You can’t redeem the bond for at least 12 months, and if you redeem the bond within five years, you forfeit the last three months of interest.

There are dollar limits on the quantity of Series I bonds you can purchase each calendar year:

  • $10k maximum in electronic bonds per person (minimum $25)
  • $5k maximum in paper bonds (minimum $50)

You can also purchase bonds for children under the age of 18 and, in some instances, for trusts and estates.

The main benefit of Series I bonds is that they protect your cash from inflation. And, Series I bonds can be a good solution if you have a savings goal over the next 2 to 5 years and want to protect the value of your savings.

References:

  1. https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/products/prod_ibonds_glance.htm
  2. https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm
  3. https://facetwealth.com/article/series-i-bonds/

Inflation Will Persist

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“Inflation is like chewing gum. It’s sticky and flexible, and you definitely don’t want to step in it.” Capital Group

For the past 30 years, investors haven’t had to worry much about dealing with inflation, says Capital Group fixed income portfolio manager Ritchie Tuazon. That changed last summer when COVID-related distortions and excessive government stimulus caused prices for energy and most consumer goods to skyrocket.

Today, the biggest questions for long term investors are how high will inflation go and how long will it last?

Adding to the uncertainty is that there are two types of inflation, according to Tuazon:

  • Sticky inflation tends to have longer staying power. Sticky categories include rent, insurance and medical expenses.
  • Flexible inflation — affecting items such as food, energy and cars — has risen much faster in recent months but many believe it won’t last.

From Capital Group’s perspective, they expect high inflation might persist longer than expected and should move closer to its 2% historic goal by sometime in 2023.

Higher inflation levels should remain elevated through late 2022, fueled by labor shortages and broken supply chains. “Consumer prices will eventually return to normal, but that process may take longer than Fed officials are expecting,” says Tuazon.

The Fed is left to react to inflation, but not overreact. Start, but not go too fast. Tighten, but not in the “wrong” ways.

Regarding inflation impact, “the first question is whether inflation will cool off enough on its own to not threaten corporate earnings growth or hurt consumer spending”, states Liz Young, Head of SoFi Investment Strategy. “The second question is less about whether the Fed can control inflation expectations with policy moves and more about whether the market is going to think they’re making a mistake and create a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

References:

  1. https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/pdf/shareholder/MFCPBR-086-652781.pdf

How the Economy Works by Ray Dalio

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“Credit is important because it means borrowers can increase their spending. This is fundamental because one person’s spending is another person’s income.” Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio is one of most successful hedge fund managers and founder of Bridgewater Associates. He credits much of his success to guiding principles that he has used to make decisions both in his professional and in his personal life.

How the Economic Machine Works – “The economy is like a machine. At the most fundamental level it is a relatively simple machine, yet it is not well understood,” explains Ray Dalio.

Economic principles discussed:

  • Economy – The economy is simply the sum of all transactions repeated again and again over a long period of time. Money and credit account for the total spending in an economy.
  • Transactions – the exchange of money or credit between a buyer and seller for goods, services or financial assets.
  • Markets – “All buyers and sellers making transactions represent the market. For example, we have wheat markets, stock markets, steel markets, oil markets and so on.The combination of all of these sub-markets is the entire market, or the entire economy.” Ray Dalio
  • Governments – the biggest buyer and seller of goods, services and financial assets. The government consists of two parts: the central government that collect taxes and spend money; and, the central bank which controls the amount of money flowing through the economy. It does this by influencing interest rates and printing more money.
  • Central Bank – The Central Bank can only buy financial assets, not goods and services. To support the economy, the Central Bank buys Government bonds which gives the Central Government the ability to buy goods and service.
  • Price – the result of total spending / quantity sold.
  • Credit – Credit “is the most important part of the economy because it is the biggest and most volatile part”. Credit can be created out of thin air — in fact, in 2016, the US$50 trillion of the US$53 trillion in the economy was credit, as opposed to ‘real’ money. Credit is important because it means borrowers can increase their spending. This is fundamental because one person’s spending is another person’s income. Credit is bad when it finances over-consumption and borrowers are unable to pay the debt back.
  • Lenders – lend money to make more of it. When lenders believe borrowers will repay, credit is created.
  • Borrowers – borrowing is pulling spending forward which relates to borrowing money to buy something you can’t afford, such as a house, a car, a business or stocks. Borrowers promise to repay the amount borrowed (the principal) with interest. Borrowing creates cycles.
  • Debt – Debt allows you to consume more than you produce when it is acquired, and forces you to consume less when you have to pay it back. “When credit is issued it becomes debt. It’s a liability for the borrower, and an asset for the lender. It disappears when the transaction is settled.
  • Interest Rates – When interest rates are high, borrowing is low. When interest rates are low, borrowing is high.
  • Spending – one person’s spending is another person’s income. Total spending is the sum of money spent plus of credit spent.
  • Income – one person’s spending is another person’s income
  • Monetary Cycles – economy expansion and recession cycles.
  • Inflation – inflation is when prices rise. When spending is faster than the production of goods, it means that we have more demand than supply, which results in inflation.
  • Deflation – when spending decreases, prices tend to decline.
  • Expansion – growing markets and increasing transactions
  • Recession – Economic activity decreases, and if unchecked this can lead to a recession.
  • Bubbles – when the price of assets far exceed the value of the assets
  • Debt Burden – When incomes grow in relation to debt, things are kept in balance. But a debt burden emerges when debt growth exceeds income growth. This debt to income ratio is the debt burden.
  • Productivity – innovation and hard working raises productivity, which equates to the amount of goods and services produced.

Three rules of thumb for life

Source: Ray Dalio

According to Dalio, there are “three rules of thumb” with which to navigate the economy, be it in your own businesses, organisations you work at or your personal finances.

  1. Don’t have debt rise faster than income (because debt burdens will eventually crush you).
  2. Don’t have income rise faster than productivity — it will eventually render you uncompetitive.
  3. Do all you can to raise productivity — in the long run that’s what matters most.

References:

  1. https://www.nofilter.media/posts/ray-dalios-economic-machine-12-minute-summary
  2. https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1501124021/ref=as_li_qf_asin_il_tl_nodl?

Inflation – The Elephant Affecting the Economy

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Historic inflation and interest rates hike fears are sinking many high growth technology stock prices. Inflation in 2021 was the consequences of rapidly rebounding demand in a supply-constrained world.

The fear of inflation and the the fear of subsequent Federal Reserve interest rate hikes are creating concern and panic among some investors. Rising interest rate and skyrocketing inflation worries are pressuring stocks. And by the Fed signaling raising rates in the future, it unsettles and sends both Wall Street and Main Street into a panic.

But, what is inflation?

Inflation is when consumer prices rise, goods and services become more expensive, and money loses value. Inflation reduces your purchasing power, eats away at your investment returns, and chips away at your wealth. Currently, Americans are experiencing the pernicious effects of inflation, especially in the areas of escalating food and energy prices.

2021 was one of the worst years for inflation that Americans have seen recently, with a 7% increase, the highest since 1982. For consumers, this means $1 at the beginning of the year was roughly worth only $0.93 at the end. While the impact might seem small when examining it on a dollar level, it represents a change in the purchasing power of retirement savings from January 2021 to December 2021. The Wall Street Journal’s Gwynn Guilford writes: “U.S. inflation hit its fastest pace in nearly four decades last year as pandemic related supply and demand imbalances, along with stimulus intended to shore up the economy, pushed price up at a 7% annual rate.”

American economist and Nobel prize laureate Milton Friedman opined that: “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”  In other words, inflation is invariably a case of too much cheap money and capital chasing too few goods, services and assets.

In the last twenty years, the United States witnessed a large accumulation of federal public debt under Presidents Bush, Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations. Federal debt climbed from 55% of GDP in 2002 to 105% in 2019. Additionally, the U.S. has also endured a decade plus of loose monetary policy overseen by the Fed which has pumped up asset prices.

As a result of the escalating public debt and loose monetary policy, the Federal Reserve most important immediate task, of its dual mandates, must be to get inflation under control and reduced. Since 1977, the Federal Reserve has operated under a mandate from Congress to “promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long term interest rates”—what is now commonly referred to as the Fed’s “dual mandate.”

The Labor Department stated that the consumer-price index — which measures what consumers pay for goods and services — rose 7% in December from the same month a year earlier, up from 6.8% in November. That was the fastest growth in inflation since 1982 and marked the third straight month in which inflation exceeded 6%.”

Three sectors–energy/materials, financials and technology–may be viewed as inflation beneficiaries or, at the very least, inflation-agnostic assets:

  • Energy and materials are commodity-based, and oil, gas, and most commodities rebounded from prices that had fallen to a fraction of their pre-pandemic levels.
  • Financials, especially banks, are often viewed as inflation hedges since interest rates historically climb when inflation heats up. This reflects the eroding effect of higher prices on a currency’s value in the future, which is remedied by rate hikes on debt.
  • Technology is a more nuanced winner in the inflation game. The large tech players and most software companies have tremendous economies of scale. As their revenues scale, their costs, particularly labor, do not grow at nearly the same degree, cushioning profit compression from wage escalation.

In a book called “The Great Inflation”, the authors wrote, “Inflation is not an Act of God…inflation is man-made and can be started, prevented, regulated and stopped by human action.”

“To think that a stimulus of this magnitude wouldn’t cause inflation required believing either that such a huge adjustment was possible within a matter of months, or that fiscal policy is ineffective and does not increase aggregate demand. Both views are implausible”, says Jason Furman, former chair of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers.

Thus, slowing down in aggregate federal debt growth per capita, tightening monetary policy, and raising interest rates could be effective tools in stemming runaway inflation.

“If I was Darth Vader and I wanted to destroy the US economy, I would do aggressive spending in the middle of an already hot economy… What are you going to get out of this? You’re going to get a sugar high, the higher inflation, then an economic bust.” — Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, July 23, 2021

References:

  1. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/13/op-ed-these-3-market-sectors-shone-even-as-investors-grew-weary-of-hearing-about-inflation.html
  2. https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2021/12/is_joe_manchin_right_about_inflation.html
  3. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4479557-how-to-better-understand-inflation-and-predict-its-direction
  4. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-did-almost-no-one-see-inflation-coming-11642519667

Inflation and the Bond Market

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The bond market—Treasuries, high-grade corporate bonds, and municipal bonds—are experiencing depressed yields in the 1% to 3% range and near-record negative real rates with inflation running at 6%. Barron’s

Real interest rates can be effectively negative if the rate of inflation exceeds the nominal interest rate, according to Investopedia. Real interest rate refers to interest paid to borrowers minus the rate of inflation. There are instances, especially during periods of high inflation, where lenders are effectively paying borrowers when they, the borrowers, take out a loan. This is called a negative interest rate environment.

The real interest rate is the nominal interest rate that has been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation to reflect the real cost of funds to the borrower and the real yield to the lender or to a bond investor. The real interest rate is calculated as the difference between the nominal interest rate and the inflation rate:

Real Interest Rate = Nominal Interest Rate – Inflation (Expected or Actual)

While the nominal interest rate is the interest rate actually paid on a loan or bond, the real interest rate is a reflection of the change in purchasing power derived from a bond or given up by the borrower. Real interest rates can be effectively negative if inflation exceeds the nominal interest rate of the bond.

There is risk for bond returns in 2022, when the Federal Reserve is widely expected to start lifting short-term interest rates to manage inflation.

And things could get worst for bonds if inflation persists. That could force the Fed to tighten more aggressively. It wouldn’t take a big rise in rates to generate negative returns on most bonds. The 30-year Treasury, now yielding just 1.9%, and most municipals yield 2% or less and junk bonds yield an average of 5%. Bonds would drop significantly in price if rates rise a percentage point.

The real interest rate adjusts the observed market interest rate for the effects of inflation.

“Cash has been trash for a long time but there are now new contenders for the investment garbage can. Intermediate to long-term bond funds are in that trash receptacle for sure.” Bill Gross, “Bond King”

References:

  1. https://www.barrons.com/articles/best-income-investments-for-2022-51640802442
  2. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/negative-interest-rate.asp