Category Archives: Market Volatility

Differences Between Price and Value

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“Price is what you pay; value is what you get.” Warren Buffett

“Don’t judge a company’s stock by its share price.” Many people incorrectly assume that a stock with a low dollar price is cheap, while another one with a four-digit dollar price is expensive. In fact, a stock’s price says little about that stock’s value. Moreover, it says nothing at all about whether that the market price of a company is headed higher or lower.

The most important distinction between the ‘market price you pay’ and the ‘intrinsic value you get’ is the fact that price is arbitrary and value is fundamental.

  • Price is the amount paid for the product or service.
  • Cost is the aggregate monetary value of the inputs used in the production of the goods or services.
  • Value of a product or service is the utility or worth of the product or service for an individual.

To effectively deploy this strategy, it’s essential to find a company that you understand, that has solid fundamentals — then be patient and wait until the company’s stock price falls below its intrinsic value before you purchase the company.

Regarding ‘understanding’ a company, it’s important for investors to know how a company makes its money–revenue, profits and free cash flow.

At some point, a stock’s market price over the long term adjusts to its intrinsic value. This fact is how successful investors such as Warren Buffet have used to make billions over the long term.

“Finding differences between price and value is by far the most effective investment strategy”, writes Phil Townes, founder of Rule One Investing . “Not recognizing differences between price and value is also what causes many investors to lose their shirts, as companies are just as often overpriced as they are underpriced.”

How do you find companies that are on sale for less than their true value is to evaluate companies using a set of standards that look beyond the company’s current price tag. Phil Town call these standards the four Ms:

  • Meaning,
  • Moat,
  • Management and
  • Margin of Safety

The first step is to make sure you understand the company and the company you invest in has meaning to you as an investor. If it does, you’ll understand it better, be more likely to research it and be more passionate about investing in it.

The second step is to choose a company that has a moat. This means that there is something inherent about the company that makes it difficult for competitors to step in and carve away part of their market share.

The third step is to look at the company’s management. Companies live and die by the people managing them, and if you are going to invest in a company, you need to make sure their management is talented and trustworthy.

Finally, calculate the company’s intrinsic value and determine a margin of safety. Margin of safety is the price at which you can buy shares of a company, being more likely that you won’t lose money and have increased confident that you will make a good return on your invested capital.

When the market price of a company is lower than the company’s intrinsic value number, the company is deemed underpriced and represents a great investment opportunity.

“Leveraging differences between price and value is as simple as that”, said Town. “Find a company that you believe in, that has solid fundamentals — then wait until their price falls below their value. If you do this, you can buy companies on sale, sell them for their true value and make a lot of money in the process.”

The goal is to identify stocks that are undervalued—that is, their market prices do not reflect their true intrinsic value.

References:

  1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/2018/01/04/the-important-differences-between-price-and-value/
  2. https://keydifferences.com/difference-between-price-cost-and-value.html
  3. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/08/stock-prices-fool.asp

The overriding goal is to help individuals learn how to successfully invest in assets, to build long term wealth and achieve lifetime financial freedom. 

Benjamin Graham

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Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow.

Benjamin Graham, colleague and mentor to billionaire investor Warren Buffett,  is widely acknowledged as the father of value investing. His timeless book, The Intelligent Investor, is considered the value investor’s bible for both individual investors and Wall Street professionals.

Many of Benjamin Graham’s concepts are deemed fundamental for value investors, and his concepts should be studied and followed for anyone who plans to invest long term in the stock market.

For example, “Margin of Safety” is the famous term coined by Ben Graham. In simple terms, an asset worth $100 and bought at $80 has a better Margin of Safety than the same asset purchased at $95. In other words, “A great company is not a great investment if you pay too much for the stock”,  according to Benjamin Graham.

The 10 Benjamin Graham quotes, all of which are valuable in today’s market, tell us that::

  1. “A stock is not just a ticker symbol or an electronic blip; it is an ownership interest in an actual business, with an underlying value that does not depend on its share price.”
  2. “People who invest make money for themselves; people who speculate make money for their brokers.”
  3. “While enthusiasm may be necessary for great accomplishments elsewhere, on Wall Street, it almost invariably leads to disaster.”
  4. “Basically, price fluctuations have only one significant meaning for the true investor. They provide him with an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and to sell wisely when they advance a great deal.”
  5. “Obvious prospects for physical growth in a business do not translate into obvious profits for investors.”
  6. “An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”
  7. “To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks.”
  8. “The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”
  9. “The investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons’ mistakes of judgment.”
  10. “Weighing the evidence objectively, the intelligent investor should conclude that IPO does not stand only for ‘initial public offering.’ More accurately, it is also shorthand for: It’s Probably Overpriced, Imaginary Profits Only, Insiders’ Private Opportunity, or Idiotic, Preposterous, and Outrageous.”

See the source image“I never ask if the market is going to go up or down because I don’t know, and besides, it doesn’t matter. I search nation after nation for stocks, asking: ‘Where is the one that is lowest-priced in relation to what I believe it is worth?’ Forty years of experience have taught me you can make money without ever knowing which way the market is going.”—Sir John Templeton

“Investing isn’t about beating others at their game. It’s about controlling yourself at your own game.” – Benjamin Graham

“Successful investing is about managing risk, not avoiding it.” – Benjamin Graham

References:

  1. https://cabotwealth.com/daily/value-investing/benjamin-graham-quotes-to-improve-your-investing-results/

Investing Principles and Rules

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Value investing is one of the most preferred ways to find strong companies and buy their stocks at a reasonable price in any type of market.

Value investors, such as Warren Buffett and Monish Pabrai, use fundamental analysis and traditional valuation metrics like intrinsic a value to find companies that they believe are being undervalued intrinsically by the stock market.

A stock is not just a ticker symbol; it is an ownership interest in an actual business with an underlying value that does not depend on its share market price.

Inflation eats away at your returns and takes away your wealth. Inflation is easy to overlook and it is important to measure your investing success not just by what you make, but by how much you keep after inflation. Defenses against inflation include:

  • Buying stocks (at the right prices),
  • REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts), and
  • TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities).

The future value of every investment is a function of its present price. The higher the price you pay, the lower your return will be.

No matter how careful you are, the one risk no investor can ever eliminate is the risk of being wrong. Only by insisting on a margin of safety  – by never overpaying, no matter how exciting an investment seems to be – can you minimize your odds of error.

Knowing that you are responsible is fundamental to saving for the future, building wealth and achieving financial freedom. It’s the primary secret to your financial success and it’s inside yourself. If you become a critical thinker and you invest with patient confidence, you can take steady advantage of even the worst bear markets. By developing your discipline and courage, you can refuse to let other people’s mood swings govern your financial destiny. In the end, how your investments behave is much less important than how you behave.

Every investment is the present value of future cash flow. Everything Money

Three things to know is that it’s important to understand and acknowledge that a stock is a piece of a business. Thus, it becomes essential to understand the business..

  • Principle #1: Always Invest with a Margin of Safety – Margin of safety is the principle of buying a security at a significant discount to its intrinsic value, which is thought to not only provide high-return opportunities but also to minimize the downside risk of an investment. No matter how careful you are, the one risk no investor can ever eliminate is the risk of being wrong. Only by insisting on a margin of safety  – by never overpaying, no matter how exciting an investment seems to be – can you minimize your odds of error.
  • Principle #2: Expect Volatility and Profit from It – Investing in stocks means dealing with volatility. Instead of running for the exits during times of market stress, the smart investor greets downturns as chances to find great investments. The guru of value investing Benjamin Graham illustrated this with the analogy of “Mr. Market,” the imaginary business partner of each and every investor. Mr. Market offers investors a daily price quote at which he would either buy an investor out or sell his share of the business. Sometimes, he will be excited about the prospects for the business and quote a high price. Other times, he is depressed about the business’s prospects and quotes a low price. The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism (which makes stocks too expensive) and unjustified pessimism (which makes them too cheap). The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.
  • Principle #3: Know What Kind of Investor You Are – Graham advised that investors know their investment selves. To illustrate this, he made clear distinctions among various groups operating in the stock market.1 Active vs. Passive Investors Graham referred to active and passive investors as “enterprising investors” (requires patience, discipline, eagerness to learn, and lots of time) and “defensive investors.”1 You only have two real choices: the first choice is to make a serious commitment in time and energy to become a good investor who equates the quality and amount of hands-on research with the expected return. If this isn’t your cup of tea, then be content to get a passive (possibly lower) return, but with much less time and work. Graham turned the academic notion of “risk = return” on its head. For him, “work = return.” The more work you put into your investments, the higher your return should be.

Because the stock market has the emotions of fear and greed, the lesson here is that you shouldn’t let Mr. Market’s views dictate your own emotions, or worse, lead you in your investment decisions. Instead, you should form your own estimates of the business’s value based on a sound and rational examination of the facts.

References:

  1. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/07/grahamprinciples.asp
  2. https://jsilva.blog/2020/06/22/intelligent-investor-summary/

The Debt Ceiling and Congressional Brinkmanship

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“I could end the deficit in 5 minutes. You just pass a law that says that anytime there is a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election.” Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO, Berkshire Hathaway

Around October 18, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the U.S. Treasury Department have warned Congress that the government will no longer be able to pay all its bills unless the $28.5 trillion statutory debt ceiling is increased or suspended.

Source: Congressional Research Service, Congressional Budget Office, and the Treasury Department. Data as of 05/01/2021.

Moreover, Secretary Yellen believes the economy would fall into a recession if Congress fails to address the borrowing limit before an unprecedented default on the U.S. debt.

While the U.S. has never failed to pay its bills, economists say a default would tarnished faith in Washington’s ability to honor its future obligations on time and potentially delay Social Security checks to some 50 million seniors and delay pay to members of the U.S. armed services.

“If you ask the question of Americans, should we pay our bills? One hundred percent would say yes. There’s a significant misunderstanding on the debt ceiling. People think it’s authorizing new spending. The debt ceiling doesn’t authorize new spending; it allows us to pay obligations already incurred.” Peter Welch (D-VT), U.S. House of Representatives Democratic Caucus Chief Deputy Whip

Increases to the debt ceiling aren’t new. They’ve occurred dozens of times over the last century, mostly matter-of-factly, a tacit acknowledgement that the bills in question are for spending that Congress has already approved.

One thing separating today’s debt debate from those of the past is the larger-than-ever national debt, according to Fidelity. Publicly held US debt topped 100% of GDP in 2020 and is expected to reach 102% by the end of 2021.

And the debt is projected to increase significantly in the future. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a federal budget deficit of $2.3 trillion in 2021—the second largest deficit since 1945.

Source: Congressional Budget Office, as of February 11, 2021.

Failure to address the current challenge could shake global markets even before the Treasury has exhausted its available measures to pay bills. A U.S. debt default, whether through delayed payments on interest owed on U.S. Treasuries or on other obligations, would be unprecedented.

The effect would be one of perception. And, perception can be tied to the reality that someone isn’t going to be paid on time, whether it be government contractors, individuals who receive entitlement payments, or someone else. The damage to U.S. credibility would be irreversible.

Even if a default were only technical—if payments other than interest on debt were delayed—the United States could no longer fully reap the benefits bestowed on the most reliable debtors.

Interest rates would likely rise, as would financing costs for businesses and individuals. Debt ratings would be at risk. The government’s own financing costs, borne by taxpayers, would increase. Stock markets would likely be pressured as higher rates made companies’ future cash flows less predictable. Such developments occurring while economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic remains incomplete makes the potential scenario all the more important to avoid.

Let it be said that no one doubts the ability of the United States to pay for its obligations, according to Vanguard. There is a minimal credit risk posed by the United States is supported by its strong economic fundamentals, excellent market access and financing flexibility, favorable long-term prospects, and the dollar’s status as a global reserve currency.

The House has passed a measure that would suspend the debt ceiling through mid-December of 2022, and the bill now goes to the Senate. Republicans in the Senate oppose any effort to raise the borrowing limit and appears intent on making Democrats address it as part of their sprawling investment in social programs and climate policy under reconciliation.

Senate Democrats could lift the debt ceiling without the GOP votes through reconciliation, although that would come with downsides. Under reconciliation, a simple majority of senators can pass a very small number of budget bills each year. The process is sufficiently complex that it would probably take a couple of weeks and distract Democrats from their negotiations over Biden’s “Build Back Bette” agenda.

Thus, the Democrats resist raising the debt ceiling through reconciliation if it means potentially sacrificing other policy goals. And, the rules for reconciliation would require Democrats to specify a new limit for the national debt which would expose them to potentially uncomfortable GOP political attack ads.

Republicans insist that since Democrats control both the executive and the legislative branches and are in a socialistic tax-and-spend binge, they should bear sole responsibility for dealing with the debt limit, which is rearing its ugly head again because the suspension included in a two-year 2019 budget deal expired on July 31.

Democrats argue that Republicans should share the burden of this unpopular chore, since (a) much of the debt involved was run up under Republican presidents and (b) Democrats accommodated Republicans on debt-limit relief during the Trump presidency.

For long term investors, it’s clearly in the best interest of the country to resolve any debt-ceiling issues, according to Fidelity. And, it’s important to understand that there will always be times of uncertainty. It’s important to take a long-term view of your investments and review them regularly to make sure they line up with your time frame for investing, risk tolerance, and financial situation.

References:

  1. https://investornews.vanguard/potential-u-s-debt-default-why-to-stay-the-course/
  2. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/05/debt-ceiling-us-faces-recession-if-congress-doesnt-act.html
  3. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/10/democrats-can-raise-debt-ceiling-via-reconciliation-bill.html
  4. https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/2021-debt-ceiling

Advantages to Taking Social Security Benefits at Age 62

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“Social Security’s trust funds will become unable to pay full benefits starting in 2034, one year earlier than estimated last year.” Social Security Administration Trustee Report

Social Security has two programs, one for retirees and another that provides disability benefits. The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund will become unable to pay full benefits starting in 2033, a year earlier than projected in 2020, while the Disability Insurance Trust Fund will become depleted in 2057, or 8 years earlier, according to Social Security Administration.

The U.S. economic recession caused by COVID-19 led to a drop in U.S. employment and a resulting decrease in payroll tax revenue, which accelerates the depletion of Social Security’s reserves.

When to claim benefits

You can start receiving your Social Security retirement benefits as early as age 62. And, there are advantages and disadvantages to taking your benefit before your full retirement age.  Matter of fact, 31% of women and 27% of men claim their Social Security benefits as soon as they qualify at age 62 in 2018.

  • The primary advantage is that you collect benefits for a longer period of time.
  • The primary disadvantage is your benefit will be reduced. Each person’s situation is different.

The earliest you can apply for Social Security benefits is four months before the month you want your benefits to start, and the earliest your benefits can start is your first full month as a 62-year-old. For example, if you turn 62 in June, your benefits can begin in July, and you can apply as early as March. And, Social Security Benefits are actually paid one month in arrears in August.

There is an exception: If you were born on the first or second day of a month, you can begin collecting your benefits in that month.

You may need your Social Security Benefits as a source of guaranteed income to help pay bills, or if you anticipate not living long enough to reap the rewards of delaying.

If you start taking Social Security at age 62, rather than waiting until your full retirement age (FRA), you can expect up to a 30% reduction in monthly benefits with lesser reductions as you approach FRA.

Delaying can boost monthly payments compare to claiming early. Colleen, single at age 62 would receive $1,450. At 66 1/2 $2,000. At 70, $2,560. Waiting until age 70 would increase Colleen's montly benefits by more than 765 and her lifetime benefits by at least 24%

Social Security replaces a percentage of your pre-retirement income based on their lifetime earnings. The portion of your pre-retirement wages that Social Security replaces is based on your highest 35 years of earnings and varies depending on how much you earn and when you choose to start benefits.

When you work, you pay taxes into Social Security and the Social Security Administration uses the tax money to pay benefits to:

  • People who have already retired.
  • People who are disabled.
  • Survivors of workers who have died.
  • Dependents of beneficiaries.

The money you pay in taxes isn’t held in a personal account for you to use when you get benefits. We use your taxes to pay people who are getting benefits right now. Any unused money goes to the Social Security trust fund that pays monthly benefits to you and your family when you start receiving retirement benefits.

Living in retirement

You’re officially retired and have worked hard to build up your retirement nest egg. As you transition your mindset from saving to spending, you’ll want to now change your focus: Protect what you have, don’t run out of money, develop a housing strategy for where you’ll live over the next 20–30 years, and hopefully, enjoy life as much as you can with your friends and family.

Claiming Social Security at 62 makes sense in several scenarios. Below are four reasons to consider filing as early as possible.

  1. You’re out of work against non-voluntary – Many people are forced out of a job before they’re ready to retire. If you’ve been downsized and can’t find a new job, Social Security could help replace of your regular paycheck. Furthermore, the coronavirus pandemic has forced a lot of seniors out of the workforce, whether due to layoffs or health concerns. If you’re able to compensate for not working by claiming benefits early, do so since it’s a better bet than racking up debt.
  2. You’re out of work temporarily and need money – Maybe you’re not working right now to address a health issue or lay low until the pandemic is over, but you’re confident you can get back out there in six months. In that case, claiming Social Security at 62 could be a smart move because you can actually use that money as a loan of sorts. One lesser-known Social Security rule is that you’re allowed to undo your filing once in your lifetime. If you claim benefits at 62 but are working again in a few months, you can withdraw your application, repay the SSA the benefits it paid you, and then file again at a later age so you don’t slash your benefits in the process. The only catch is that you must undo your claim and repay your benefits within 12 months. But if you can pull that off, you can collect Social Security on a temporary basis without locking yourself into a lower monthly benefit forever.
  3. You’re tired of working and can get by on your Social Security paycheck – Maybe you have the option to work, but at this point in life, you’re tired of doing it. If your expenses are such that you can get by on your Social Security income, or a combination of Social Security and other income sources, then there comes a point when you should let yourself off the hook after a lifetime of hard work. If you’re going to claim Social Security early for this reason, you should make sure to have a healthy retirement savings balance to compensate for a lower monthly benefit.
  4. You Have Minor or Disabled Children at Home – If you have children, eligible grandchildren, or even a spouse providing care for these children at home, these family members may be eligible for a benefit. There’s a rule that states that before benefits can be paid to anyone off of your work record, you have to be receiving benefits. That means filing early could make more sense than waiting. When combined with your benefits, the benefits to children and your eligible spouse can be up to 180% of your full retirement age benefit. If you have children at home that meet the criteria for eligibility, that’s an obvious reason to consider filing early.

It might seem like it makes sense to wait to file until full retirement age, then, when you’d receive $2,000 (versus filing at 62, when you’d only get $1,500 per month).

If you lived until 90, you’d receive an additional $70,000 in benefits for delaying filing until 66 instead of filing at 62. But this calculation doesn’t take into account the benefits paid to your children. While your children would be eligible for benefits based upon your retirement, the kids cannot get benefits until you file. That means your family would able to collect thousands of dollars more in lifetime benefits if you file early and turn on the benefits for your kids.

For every good reason to claim Social Security at 62, there’s an equally good reason to wait. On average, retirement beneficiaries receive 40% of their pre-retirement income from Social Security.

References:

  1. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/social-security-to-become-unable-to-pay-full-benefits-sooner-than-previously-estimated-11630436444
  2. https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/learn.html
  3. https://www.aarp.org/retirement/social-security/questions-answers/social-security-start-at-62.html
  4. https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/retirement/social-security-at-62
  5. https://www.fool.com/retirement/2021/04/05/3-great-reasons-to-take-social-security-benefits-a/
  6. https://communications.fidelity.com/pi/calculators/social-security/#sectionAge
  7. https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/quickcalc/early_late.html
  8. https://www.socialsecurityintelligence.com/5-smart-reasons-to-consider-filing-for-social-security-at-62/

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

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There are 30 Dow Jones stocks designed to serve as a bellwether for the general U.S. stock market.

Founded in 1896 with 12 stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is one of the oldest stock market indexes and one of the most popular. It is designed to serve as a bellwether for the general U.S. stock market and an indictor of the overall U.S. economy. It is widely-recognized stock market indices. It measures the daily stock market movements of 30 U.S. publicly-traded companies listed on the NASDAQ or the  New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The 30 publicly-owned companies are considered leaders in the United States economy.

The index changes when one or more components experience financial distress that renders it a less important company in its sector when there is a significant shift in the economy that needs to be reflected in the composition.

Recent changes that occurred include:

  • March 2015, Apple replaced AT&T
  • September 2017, DowDuPont replaced DuPont. (Following the merger of Dow Chemical Company and DuPont)
  • July 2018, Wallgreens Boots Alliance Replaced General Electric

Other major stock indexes include the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite and the S&P 500 index — an index of the 500 largest companies in the United States.

The stock market historically performs similarly to the business cycle of the economy. A bear market (prices decrease 20% or more) occurs during a recession and a bull market (prices increase) during an expansion.

Business Cycle Phases.

The business cycle is the natural rise and fall of economic growth that occurs over time. The business cycle goes through four major phases: expansion, peak, contraction, and trough. The cycle is a useful tool for analyzing the economy.

References:

  1. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/dow-jones-industrial-average-djia/
  2. https://www.thebalance.com/dow-jones-closing-history-top-highs-and-lows-since-1929-3306174
  3. https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-business-cycle-3305912

Price Line vs. Earnings Line

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“A quick way to tell if a stock is overpriced is to compare the price line to the earnings line. If you bought familiar growth companies – such as Shoney’s, The Limited, or Marriott – when the stock price fell well below the earnings line, and sold them when the stock price rose dramatically above it, the chances are you’d do pretty well.” Peter Lynch

As the former head of Fidelity’s flagship Magellan Fund, Peter Lynch produced an annualized rate of return of 29.2% over his 13-year stint at the helm. This track record has arguably placed him as the best mutual fund manager of all time.

In his best-selling book, “One Up On Wall Street,” Lynch revealed a powerful charting tool, called the “Peter Lynch chart,” that greatly simplified his investment decisions. This simple graph plots the stock price against its “earnings line,” a theoretical price equal to 15 times the earnings per share.

When a stock trades well below its earnings line, you should buy, according to Lynch’s theory. When it rises above its earnings line, you should sell. For example, the Wal-Mart Stores (ticker: WMT ) share-price line fell below the Lynch line at about $55 in March 2010. It didn’t climb back over the Lynch line until June 2012, when shares were $67.50. Had you bought the first crossover and sold the second, you would have gained $12.50 a share, or about 23%.

The idea behind this technique is simple. Lynch believe that mature, stable companies are worth roughly 15 times their annual earnings. And over the last 135 years, this has proven to be the mean valuation of the S&P 500 index.

This is known as a the P/E ratio. It is merely the price of the stock divided by its earnings per share. The resulting multiple represents how many times you are paying for last year’s earnings at today’s stock price.

All things being equal, the lower the number the better. Low P/E ratios mean that you are getting more earnings for your investment dollar. And since most large cap stocks eventually trade for at least 15 times earnings, you are more likely to see your shares appreciate as they return to the 15 P/E level.

This simple idea was the basis of Lynch’s investment approach and the reason he created the chart whichconsists of only two lines. The first is the stock price. The second is the hypothetical stock price if it were to trade at a P/E of 15 (the earnings line).

It is a well-known fact among experienced investors that a stock’s price follows its earnings. Over multi-year periods, stock prices move in sync with changing company earnings.

But over the short term, stock prices are unpredictable. This is what creates valuable opportunities for savvy and patience investors.

Furthermore, a good rule of thumb is that the P/E ratio of any fairly valued company will equal its earnings growth rate. A company with a P/E ratio that is half its growth rate is very positive. A company with a P/E ratio that is twice its growth rate is deemed negative.

Thirteen attributes you should investigate for in a stock with the potential for 10x growth, according to Peter Lynch:

  1. The company name is dull or ridiculous.
  2. The company does something dull and boring
  3. The company does something disagreeable or disgusting.
  4. The company is a spin-off like the Baby Bells.
  5. Institutions don’t own it and analysts don’t follow it.
  6. There are negative rumors about it, like Waste Management.
  7. There is something depressing about it such as SRB, which provides burial services.
  8. That it is a company in a no growth industry, since it’s in a non competitive business.
  9. It has a niche such as drug companies.
  10. People have to keep buying the products such as drugs, food and cigarettes.
  11. The company is the user of technology such as Domino’s.
  12. The company insiders are buyers of the stock.
  13. The company is buying back its shares.

Best stocks to avoid is the hottest stock in the hottest industry. Negative growth industries do not attract competitors. Additionally, avoid companies with excessive debt on its balance sheet and invest in companies that have little or no debt.

The debt must always be lower than the equity. If the company has a debt lower than 50% of the equity, it is considered to be in a good financial position. If it is lower than 25%, it’s excellent. When the debt is above 75% of the equity, it is recommended to avoid that company.

References:

  1. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/peter-lynch-earned-29-13-231636799.html
  2. https://tofinancialfreedom.co/en/one-up-on-wall-street-summary-book/
  3. https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2021/04/16/lynchs-one-up-on-wall-street-inspired-screening-strategy/

Apple’s Stock Price Underperforms Market 2021 YTD

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“‘Most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition.’ Remembering Steve and the many ways he changed our world.”  Tim Cook

On June 8, 2021, Apple Inc. (ticker: AAPL) closed $18.35 below its 52-week high ($145.09), which the company achieved on January 25th, and the stock is down slightly more than 4% year-to-date (YTD).

No photo description available.

Despite the recent stock price underperformance, Apple remains the most valued U.S.-traded company, at $2.1 trillion market capitalization. On April 28, 2021, Apple announced financial results for its fiscal 2021 second quarter ended March 27, 2021. The Company posted a second quarter record revenue of $89.6 billion, up 54 percent year over year, and quarterly earnings per diluted share of $1.40. International sales accounted for 67 percent of the quarter’s revenue. While hardware like the iPhone and iPad will continue being a significant part of Apple’s revenue, look for services to play an increasingly important role over the next decade in the company’s growth and success.

Yet, investors remain concerned regarding the big questions facing Apple and its ecosystem, according to an article reported in the Wall Street Journal. The company has been sued for alleged anticompetitive behavior by “Fortnite” maker Epic Games over the rules and fees for its App Store. A bench trial on the matter wrapped up last week.

That trial ended with Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook facing sharp questions from U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers, who seemed skeptical about some of the company’s explanations for its business practices on the App Store. A ruling in the case is not expected for months.

Apple’s share price has fallen 3% since the start of the trial and is now off nearly 7% for the year—the worst performance among its mega-cap tech peers. Part of that can be chalked up to worries about a peak iPhone cycle following the strong sales performance of last year’s models.

From a capital allocation perspective, Apple’s board hiked its dividend by 7% and announced a new $90B share repurchase program. Despite well-known industry chip supply constraints, Apple appears to be executing extremely well and is seeing robust demand across all business line.

References:

  1. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-inc-stock-rises-monday-still-underperforms-market-01623097911-d343febf425e
  2. https://www.wsj.com/articles/apples-big-show-may-not-be-enough-11622804401
  3. https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2021/04/apple-reports-second-quarter-results/

Successful Long Term Investing

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“All there is to investing is picking good stocks at good times and staying with them as long as they remain good companies.” Warren Buffett

You need courage, a long term focus, and the discipline to adhere to a long term plan to buy stocks when the markets are turbulent, stock prices are melting down, and the economy is in a deep slump, and the outlook for corporate earnings over the subsequent quarters is unfavorable. In Warren Buffett’s view, “Widespread fear is your friend as an investor because it serves up bargain purchases.” Thus, smart long-term investors love when the prices of their favorite stocks fall, as it produces some of the most favorable buying opportunities. According to Buffett, “Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.”

“The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble…We want to buy them when they’re on the operating table.” Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett

Additionally, investors must focus on the long term — a minimum of seven to ten years — and look for high-quality, blue-chip companies that have fortress like balance sheets and can generate extraordinary free cash flow. In the short term, equity markets tend to swing wildly from day to day on the smallest of news, trend and sentiment, and celebrate or vilify the most inane data points. It’s important not to get caught up in the madness but stick to your homework. Warren Buffett quipped that, “If you aren’t willing to own a stock for ten years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes.”

Invest in well-managed, financially strong businesses that sell goods and services for which demand is consistently strong (think food, consumer goods, and medicines), since it’s essential to keep capital preservation and margin of safety at the top of your priority list when deciding how to invest your money. As Buffett says, “Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.”

Businesses that are well managed and that have strong balance sheets typically display certain characteristics:

  • They carry little or no debt.
  • They generate enough free cash flow (earnings plus depreciation and other noncash charges, minus the capital outlays needed to maintain the business) that they don’t have to raise equity or sell debt.
  • They have a proven history of management excellence.
  • They have abundant opportunities for reinvesting capital (or clear policies for returning excess capital to shareholders), and their leaders boast an outstanding record of allocating capital.
  • They have a durable competitive advantage which could mean cost advantages, a strong brand name, or something else.
  • In addition, they are global in scope. After all, 95% of the world’s population lives outside the U.S., and economic growth is likely to be greater abroad than at home.

“We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett

To be a successful long term investor, it’s essential to filter out the short-term noise. Most of the chatter from Wall Street and in the financial entertainment media headlines is just that: chatter you can and should ignore. “We’ve long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good. According to Buffett, “Even now, Charlie and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children.”

“The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow, but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company and, above all, the durability of that advantage.” Warren Buffet

If You’re Not Investing You’re Doing it Wrong

“Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value.” Warren Buffett

Investing in equities delivers higher returns than bond or cash investments over the long term but is accompanied by a higher exposure to market risk. Investing in fixed income investments offers more modest return potential and risk exposure. Investors can invest in cash as a low- risk, low-return strategy, which is ideal for short-term savings goals or to balance out the risks of stock and bond investments. Ideally, investors’ asset allocations should reflect their goals, risk tolerance, time horizon, income and wealth, and other personal factors.

“The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect. You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against the crowd.” Warren Buffett

References:

  1. https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/t038-c000-s002-7-blue-chips-to-hold-forever.html
  2. https://www.fool.com/investing/best-warren-buffett-quotes.aspx
  3. https://www.ruleoneinvesting.com/blog/how-to-invest/warren-buffett-quotes-on-investing-success/
  4. https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/how-america-invests-2020.pdf

Road to Wealth | American Association of Individual Investors (AAII)

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You can build wealth by saving for the future and investing over a long term. The earlier you start, the easier it is for your money to work for you through compounding. 

Building wealth is essential to accomplish a variety of goals, from sending your kids to college to retiring in style. Wealth is what you accumulate; not what you spend. Most Americans are not wealthy. and few have accumulated significant assets and wealth.

How long could the average household survive without a steady income.

Every successful saving and investing journey starts with a set of clear and concise goals, whether they’re as big as retirement or as small as wanting to save for new tires for your vehicle. It’s important to determine and write down what are your savings, investing and wealth building goals.

Rather than trying to guess what’s going to happen, focus on what you can control. Each financial goal calls for a positive step you can take no matter what the market or the economy is doing.

The Wealth-Building Process can help you keep many of these financial goals and investing process on track. It is designed to give you clarity on what you are investing for and what steps you need to take to reach and fulfill those goals.

The key is to stick to your financial plan and recalibrate the investing process throughout the year. One way to do so is to set up reminders that prompt you to go back and review your goals. Positive change often requires a willingness to put yourself back on track whenever you drift away from the plan.

With that in mind, here are financial and investing tactics for investors:

1. Only follow strategies you can stick with no matter how good or bad market conditions are.  All too often, investors misperceive the optimal strategy as being the one with the highest return (and often the one with the highest recent returns). This is a big mistake; if you can’t stick to the strategy, then it’s not optimal for you. Better long-term results come to those investors who can stick with a good long-term strategy in all market environments rather than chasing the hot strategy only to abandon it when market conditions change.

One way to tell if your strategy is optimal is to look at the portfolio actions you took this past year. Make sure that you are not taking on more risk than you can actually tolerate. Alternatively, you may need to develop more clearly defined rules about when you will make changes to your portfolio.

2. Focus on your process, not on your goals. Mr. Market couldn’t care less about how much you need to fund retirement, pay for a child’s college education or fulfill a different financial goal you may have. He does as he pleases. The only thing you can control is your process for allocating your portfolio, choosing investments to buy and determining when it’s time to sell. Focus on getting the process right for these three things and you will get the best possible return relative to the returns of the financial markets and your personal tolerance for risk.

3. Write down the reasons you are buying an investment. One of the most fundamental rules of investing is to sell a security when the reasons you bought it no longer apply. Review your current holdings and ask yourself the exact reasons you bought them. Recommend you maintain notes, so you don’t have to rely on your memory to cite the exact characteristics of a stock or a fund that attracted you to the investment.

4. Write down the reasons you would sell the investments you own. Just as you should write down the reasons you bought an investment, jot down the reasons you would sell an investment, ideally before you buy it. Economic conditions and business attributes change over time, so even long-term holdings may overstay their welcome. A preset list of criteria for selling a stock, bond or fund can be particularly helpful in identifying when a negative trend has emerged.

5. Have a set schedule for reviewing your portfolio holdings.  If you own individual securities, consider reviewing the headlines and other relevant criteria weekly. (Daily can work, if doing so won’t cause you to trade too frequently.) If you own mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or bonds, monitor them quarterly or monthly.

6. Rebalance your portfolio back to your allocation targets. Check your portfolio allocations and adjust them if they are off target. For example, if your strategy calls for holding 40% large-cap stocks, 30% small-cap stocks and 30% bonds, but your portfolio is now composed of 45% large-cap stocks, 35% small-cap stocks and 20% bonds, adjust it. Move 5% of your portfolio out of large-cap stocks, move 5% out of small-cap stocks and put the money into bonds to bring your allocation back to 40%/30%/30%. How often should you rebalance? Vanguard suggests rebalancing annually or semiannually when your allocations are off target by five percentage points or more.

7. Review your investment expenses. Every dollar you spend on fees is an extra dollar you need to earn in investment performance just to break even. Higher expenses can be justified if you receive enough value for them. An example would be a financial adviser who keeps you on track to reach your financial goals. Review your expenses annually.

8. Automate when possible. A good way to avoid unintentional and behavioral errors is to automate certain investment actions. Contributions to savings, retirement and brokerage accounts can be directly taken from your paycheck or from your checking account. (If the latter, have the money pulled on the same day you get paid or the following business day.) Most mutual funds will automatically invest the contributions for you. Required minimum distributions (RMDs) can be automated to avoid missing deadlines and provide a monthly stream of income. You can also have bills set up to be paid automatically to avoid incurring late fees.

9. Create and use a checklist. An easy way to ensure you are following all of your investing rules is to have a checklist. It will both take the emotions out of your decisions and ensure you’re not overlooking something important.

10. Write and maintain emergency instructions on how to manage your portfolio. Typically, one person in a household pays the bills and manages the portfolio. If that person is you and something suddenly happened to you, how easy would it be for your spouse or one of your children to step in and take care of your financial affairs? For many families, the answer is ‘not easily’ given the probable level of stress in addition to their lack of familiarity with your accounts. A written plan better equips them to manage your finances in the manner you would like them to. It’s also a good idea to contact all of your financial institutions and give them a trusted contact they can reach out to, if needed.

Even Warren Buffett sees the value of this resolution. In his 2013 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter, he wrote, “What I advise here is essentially identical to certain instructions I’ve laid out in my will. One bequest provides that cash will be delivered to a trustee for my wife’s benefit … My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund.” Considering the probability of Mrs. Buffett having learned a thing or two about investing over the years, it speaks volumes that Warren Buffett still sees the importance of including simple and easy-to-follow instructions in his estate documents.

11. Share your insights about investing with your family.  If you’re reading this, you likely have some passion for, or at least interest in, investing. Share it with your family members by having a conversation with them. Talk about how you invest, what you’ve learned and even the mistakes you’ve made. It’s a great way to pass along a legacy to those younger than you and to maintain a strong bond with those older than you. You might even learn something new by doing so. Our Wealth-Building Process can provide a great framework for facilitating these types of conversations.

If a family member isn’t ready to talk, don’t push them. Rather, write down what you want to say, give the letter to them and tell them you’ll be ready to talk when they are. For those of you who are older and are seeking topics that your younger relatives (e.g., millennials) might be interested in, consider our discount broker guide, which includes a comparison of the traditional online brokers versus the newer micro-investing apps.

12. Check your beneficiary designations. It is critical that all of your beneficiary designations are current and correctly listed. Even if nothing has changed over the past year, ensure that the designations on all of your accounts are correct. Also, make sure your beneficiaries know the accounts and policies they are listed on. Finally, be certain that those you would depend on to take over your financial affairs have access to the documents they need in the event of an emergency. We think this step is so important that we included a checklist for it in our Wealth-Building Process toolkit.

While you are in the process of checking your beneficiaries, contact all of the financial institutions you have an account or policy with to ensure your contact information is correct.

13. Be disciplined, not dogmatic. When you come across information that contradicts your views, do not automatically assume it is wrong. The information may highlight risks you have not previously considered or that you have downplayed in the past. At the same time, don’t be quick to change your investing style just because you hear of a strategy or an approach that is different than yours. Part of investing success comes from being open to new ideas while maintaining the ability to stick with a rational strategy based on historical facts. When in doubt, remember resolution #1, only follow strategies you can stick with no matter how good or bad market conditions are.

14. Never panic. Whenever stocks incur a correction (a decline of 10%–20%) or fall into bear market territory (a drop of 20% or more), the temptation to sell becomes more intense. Our brains are programmed to disdain losses as well as to react first and think later.

This focus on the short term causes us to ignore the lessons of history. Market history shows a pattern of rewards for those who endure the bouts of short-term volatility. We saw this last year. The coronavirus bear market was sharp, and the drop was quick. Those who were steadfast—or used it as an opportunity to add to their equity positions—were rewarded with new record highs being set late in the year and so far this year.

Drops happen regularly and so do recoveries. If you sell in the midst of a correction or a bear market, you will lock in your losses. If you don’t immediately buy when the market rebounds—and people who panic during bad market conditions wait too long to get back in—you will also miss out on big gains, compounding the damage to your portfolio. Bluntly put, panicking results in a large and lasting forfeiture of wealth.

15. Don’t make a big mistake.  Things are going to go haywire. A stock you bought will suddenly plunge in value. A mutual fund strategy will hit the skids. A bond issuer will receive a big credit downgrade. The market will drop at the most inopportune time.

If you are properly diversified, don’t make big bets on uncertain outcomes (including how President-elect Biden’s administration and the Democrats’ control of Congress will impact the financial markets), avoid constantly chasing the hot investment or hot strategy and set up obstacles to prevent your emotions from driving your investment decisions, you will have better long-term results than a large number of investors.

16. Take advantage of being an individual investor. Perhaps the greatest benefit of being an individual investor is the flexibility you are afforded. As AAII founder James Cloonan wrote: “The individual investor has a distinct advantage over the institution in terms of flexibility. They can move more quickly, have a wider range of opportunities and can tailor their program more effectively. They have only themselves to answer to.”

Not only are we as individual investors not restricted by market capitalization or investment style, but we also never have to report quarterly or annual performance. This means we can invest in a completely different manner than institutional investors can. Take advantage of this flexibility, because doing so gives you more opportunity to achieve your financial goals.

17. Treat investing as a business. The primary reason you are investing is to create or preserve wealth, and no one cares more about your personal financial situation than you do. So be proactive. Do your research before buying a security or fund, ask questions of your adviser and be prepared to sell any investment at any given time if your reasons for selling so dictate.

18. Alter your passwords and use anti-virus software. There continues to be news stories about hacks. The best way you can protect yourself is to vary your passwords and use security software. A password manager is helpful for this. Anti-virus software and firewalls can keep viruses off of your computer and help thwart hackers.

19. Protect your identity. Identity theft can cause significant problems. Freezing your credit, monitoring your credit reports (Consumer Reports recommends AnnualCreditReport) and paying your taxes as early as possible can help prevent you from becoming a victim. Promptly challenge any suspicious charges on your credit card or telephone bills. If you get an unsolicited call asking for personal information, such as your Social Security number, or from someone claiming to be an IRS agent, hang up. (Better yet, don’t answer the phone unless you are certain you know who is calling.) It’s also a good idea to cover the keypad when typing your passcode into an ATM. Never click on a link in an email purporting to be from a financial institution (a bank, a brokerage firm, an insurance company, etc.). Instead, type the company’s website address directly into your browser.

The Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act of 2018 required credit bureaus to allow consumers to freeze their credit reports at no cost. The following links will go directly to the relevant pages on each credit bureau’s website:

  • Equifax: www.equifax.com/personal/credit-report-services
  • Experian: www.experian.com/freeze/center.html
  • TransUnion: www.transunion.com/credit-freeze

20. To help others, invest in yourself first. Investing based on your values, donating to charity, devoting your time to causes you are passionate about and giving to family and friends are all noble actions and goals. To do so now and in the future requires taking care of yourself. Keep yourself on a path to being financially sound through regular saving and controlled spending. Good sleep habits, exercise and following a healthy diet (eat your vegetables!) are also important—as are continuing to wear a face mask and practicing social distancing. The better shape you keep yourself in from a physical, mental and financial standpoint, the more you’ll be able to give back to society.

For those of you seeking to follow an ESG strategy, be it due to environmental, social or governance issues, make sure you stay on a path to achieve financial freedom. The same applies to other values-based investing, such as following religious beliefs. While it is possible to do well by doing good, every restriction you place on what you’ll invest in reduces the universe of potential investments you will have to choose from.

21. Be a mindful investor. Slow down and carefully consider each investment choice before making a decision. Ensure that the transaction you are about to enter makes sense given your investing time horizon, which may be 30 years or longer, and that it makes sense given your buy and sell rules. A common trap that investors fall into is to let short-term events impact decisions that should be long-term in nature. If you think through your decision process, you may well find yourself making fewer, but smarter, investment decisions.

22. Take a deep breath. Often, the best investing action is to simply take a deep breath and gather your composure. Short-term volatility can fray anyone’s nerves, but successful investors don’t let emotions drive their trading decisions. It’s okay to be scared; it’s not okay to make decisions that could impact your portfolio’s long-term performance based on short-term market moves. If you find yourself becoming nervous, tune out the investment media until you get back into a calm state of mind and then focus on resolutions #1, #2, #3 and #4 (found in last week’s Investor Update). Success comes from being disciplined enough to focus on your strategy and goals and not on what others think you should do.

“I found the road to wealth when I decided that part of all I earned was mine to keep. And so will you.”  The Richest Man in Babylon

Finally, remember that you have a life outside of the financial markets. Investing is merely a means to an end. Put the majority of your energy into activities you truly enjoy, including spending time with family and friends.

References:

  1. https://www.aaii.com/learnandplan/aboutiiwbp
  2. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jrose/2019/09/26/ways-to-build-wealth-fast-that-your-financial-advisor-wont-tell-you