Jobs, Coronavirus, and the Budget | First Trust Economics Blog

Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist

Date: 2/10/2020

In January, US payrolls expanded by 225,000, not only beating the consensus forecast, but also forecasts from every single economics group.  Since January 2019 (12 months ago), both payrolls and civilian employment – an alternative measure of jobs that includes small-business start-ups – are up 2.1 million.  The labor force – those who are either working or looking for work – is up 1.5 million, while the jobless rate fell to 3.6% from the 4.0%.

The labor force participation rate (the share of adults who are either working or looking for work) increased to 63.4% in January, the highest reading since early 2013.  Participation among “prime-age” adults (25 to 54) hit 83.1%, the highest since the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008.   

Meanwhile initial claims for unemployment insurance hit 202,000 in the last week of January, and initial claims as a percent of all jobs are at the lowest level ever.  In other words, the job market and the economy look strong.

Only a few months ago, some analysts were saying that the inversion of the yield curve – with short-term interest rates above long-term rates – was signaling the front edge of a US recession.  Now a recession seems nowhere in sight.

Lately, financial markets have become very jumpy on any news – good or bad – regarding the coronavirus.  We aren’t immunologists (or doctors) and would never make light of a virus that has killed more than 900 and infected over 40,000, but data released by the World Health Organization (WHO) cautiously suggests a positive turning point has been reached.

— Read on www.ftportfolios.com/retail/blogs/economics/index.aspx

Solving the Financial Literacy Problem

“A compelling body of evidence demonstrates a strong association between financial literacy and household well-being. Survey after survey shows that households that demonstrate low levels of financial literacy are those that tend not to plan for retirement, borrow at high interest rates, and acquire fewer assets.” Shawn Cole

Numerous reports show that a majority of American adults lack basic financial knowledge, behaviors, habits or skills to make good decisions about managing their money. Poor money management habits and a lack of financial literacy continue to be significant concerns for Americans and might pose a future a threat to the continued prosperity of America, since we cannot expect government to run huge fiscal deficits to provide essential needs of its citizens.

Additionally, it is one problem that has caused many Americans to be left behind despite ten years of economic expansion and a roaring bull stock market over that same timeframe. The economic good times have benefited high income and high net worth Americans; and it has led to an ever widening income gap, wealth gap and retirement gap within the United States.

Lack of Financial Literacy

“The number one problem in today’s generation and economy is the lack of financial literacy.” Alan Greenspan, Former Chairman, Federal Reserve

Forty-seven percent of college students surveyed said they do not feel prepared to manage their money. Managing money remains the most daunting challenge for college students for the fourth year in a row.

A recent survey, by financial firm AIG and education training company EVERFI of more than 25,000 college students, revealed that students struggle with even basic financial literacy about things like student loans, credit cards and investing.

When asked six personal finance questions, the survey revealed that more than one in 10 college students answered none of questions correctly, and another 20% got just one question right. Still, more than half got just two or fewer questions correct — even incorrectly answering simple questions about net worth and savings.

Furthermore, fewer than 1% of college students taking the test got them all right.

This survey reveals a widespread problem inside America. It reveals that there is a Financial literacy problem in America and one that we must solve.

This is a major issue because of the financial realities facing college students and all Americans. For example, according to Sallie US:SLM data revealed that 83% of college grads have a credit card, though only about six in 10 say they pay the balance on time and in full each month.

Not Taught in High School

“You can come from humble beginnings, live frugally, invest as much as you can, save 10% to 20% of your paycheck, invest in low-cost ETFs, and become a millionaire.’—Dan LaSalle, Olney Charter School’s assistant principal

Why the shortfall in financial literacy? The reason is because not many students in the U.S. learn about personal finance in school, regardless of the income-level where they live. According to the nonprofit Next Gen Personal Finance, only five states require high-school students to take a personal-finance class: Virginia, Alabama, Utah, Missouri and Tennessee.

In other states, personal finance classes are often offered as an elective. (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-one-high-school-is-teaching-hundreds-of-students-to-become-millionaires-2019-05-03). As a result, we have a nation where a vast majority do not understand or even the basics of smart money management habits and behaviors.

“The single biggest difference between financial success and financial failure is how well you manage your money. It’s simple: to master money, you must manage money.” T. Harv Eker, author Millionaire Mind

Financial Literacy is one solution

Financial literacy is about knowing how money is made, spent, and saved, as well as the skills and ability to use financial resources to make decisions. These decisions include how to generate, invest, spend, and save money.

This concept is applicable to both individuals and organizations. Individuals must be able to balance a checkbook, comprehend personal income taxes, and understand the concept of budgeting in order to make wise decisions with money. These skills are vitally important; yet, many individuals lack this basic knowledge and consequently are unable to meet their daily expenses.


References:

  1. https://everfi.com/insights/white-papers/2019-money-matters-report/
  2. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/solving-americas-financial-literacy-crisis-starts-with-teachers-not-laws-2019-11-19
  3. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-than-half-of-college-students-fail-this-6-question-money-quiz-would-you-2019-06-05
  4. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-one-high-school-is-teaching-hundreds-of-students-to-become-millionaires-2019-05-03

Deciding to retire or not | 3 preretirement phases | Fidelity

Key takeaways

  • While financial and work-related factors are the primary reasons people continue to work, nonfinancial factors like family, health, and lifestyle ultimately cause people to pull the trigger to retire.
  • Wellbeing in retirement is not just about money, or even intellectual stimulation. It’s largely about the freedom to do what you want, when you want.
  • As you enter a stage of preretirement, consider working with an advisor to help shape strategies for Social Security, health care, and cash flow in retirement.

When will you be ready to retire? Particularly if retirement is still far away, you’re probably thinking in terms of dollars—how many you will have and how long they will last. But new research finds that for many people, the decision to retire is not just about money. It’s about life, and the freedom to enjoy it.

That’s the conclusion of an extensive survey of over 10,000 pre-retirees and recent retirees. The online survey was conducted by Fidelity Investments in collaboration with the Stanford Center on Longevity and Greenwald & Associates1 and only included respondents who believed they had some control over if and when they would stop working full-time.

While financial and work-related factors are the primary reasons people continue to work, with eligibility for Medicare and Social Security as key factors, the survey also finds that it’s often nonfinancial factors like family, health, and lifestyle that ultimately cause people to pull the trigger to retire. Among retirees, 72% chose leisure as a very or somewhat strong reason to retire, 64% pointed to stress at work, and 62% cited a desire to spend more time with grandchildren.

“We’ve seen a shift in values as people near retirement,” says Eliza Badeau, Director of Thought Leadership at Fidelity. “Many people seem to desire freedom over money. It’s less about the money and more about spending time where it matters most to them,” she adds. “Most people say they look forward to the freedom that retirement brings such as spending time with their family or doing hobbies they enjoy—ultimately trading in that job stress for leisurely interests.”

Research finds that for many people, the decision to retire is not just about money. Discover 3 preretirement phases that are influencing peoples decision to retire here.

— Read on www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/retirement/time-to-retire

The Beginner’s Guide to Intermittent Fasting

The quote below from Dr. Michael Eades, who has tried intermittent fasting himself, on the difference between trying a diet and trying intermittent fasting.

“Diets are easy in the contemplation, difficult in the execution. Intermittent fasting is just the opposite — it’s difficult in the contemplation but easy in the execution.

Most of us have contemplated going on a diet. When we find a diet that appeals to us, it seems as if it will be a breeze to do. But when we get into the nitty gritty of it, it becomes tough. For example, I stay on a low–carb diet almost all the time. But if I think about going on a low–fat diet, it looks easy. I think about bagels, whole wheat bread and jelly, mashed potatoes, corn, bananas by the dozen, etc. — all of which sound appealing. But were I to embark on such a low–fat diet I would soon tire of it and wish I could have meat and eggs. So a diet is easy in contemplation, but not so easy in the long–term execution.

Intermittent fasting is hard in the contemplation, of that there is no doubt. “You go without food for 24 hours?” people would ask, incredulously when we explained what we were doing. “I could never do that.” But once started, it’s a snap. No worries about what and where to eat for one or two out of the three meals per day. It’s a great liberation. Your food expenditures plummet. And you’re not particularly hungry. … Although it’s tough to overcome the idea of going without food, once you begin the regimen, nothing could be easier.”

— Dr. Michael Eades

— Read on jamesclear.com/the-beginners-guide-to-intermittent-fasting

Trusts: An estate planning tool | Fidelity

Trusts can help you control your assets and build a legacy.
FIDELITY VIEWPOINTS

Key takeaways
Trusts can help pass and preserve wealth efficiently and privately.
Trusts can help reduce estate taxes for married couples.
Gain control over distribution of your assets by using trusts.
With a trust, you can ensure that your retirement assets are distributed as you’ve planned.

If you haven’t stopped to consider how a trust may help you pass your wishes and wealth on, you could be making a critical estate planning mistake. Especially for individuals with substantial assets, protecting wealth for future generations should be top of mind.

“People often fail to appreciate the power a trust can have as part of a well-crafted estate plan, but that can be a costly mistake,” says Rodney Weaver, VP, Advanced Planning at Fidelity. “Trusts are flexible and powerful tools that can be used to gain greater control over how they pass their wealth to future generations.”

A trust is a legal structure that contains a set of instructions on exactly how and when to pass assets to trust beneficiaries. There are many types of trusts to consider, each designed to help achieve a specific goal. An estate planning professional can help you determine which type (or types) of trusts are most appropriate for you. However, an understanding of the estate planning goals that a trust may help you achieve is a good starting point.

— Read on www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/personal-finance/reasons-to-consider-a-trust