Category Archives: Risk

Taking Risks

Posted on by

“Do the one thing you think you cannot do. Fail at it. Try again. Do better the second time. The only people who never tumble are those who never mount the high wire. This is your moment. Own it.” — Oprah Winfrey

The greatness you desire, the success you dream about, is on the other side of your doubts and fears, explains media mogul Oprah Winfrey. You must confront and manage your self-doubts and unrealistic fears if you ever expect to live a life of purpose and meaning. You must believe in yourself, be courageous in your actions, and be grateful for your current life.

You don’t find life’s purpose and meaning, you create them!

The kind of life you were created to live, a life of purpose and meaning, will require you to leave your comfort zone and take risks. Staying within your comfort zone and avoiding risks may seem safe, but they can also lead to missed opportunities for growth, learning, and progress.

Every decision involves an opportunity cost—the value of what you could have gained by choosing an alternative path. Taking risks involves making decisions or engaging in actions where the outcome is uncertain but there is a potential benefit or reward.

Not taking risks is a risk in itself. Many people are not living their dreams because they are living their fears.

Fear of failure often prevents people from taking risks. However, failure itself is a valuable teacher. You will never amount to anything if you let your doubts and fears hinder you from trying things.

Embracing failure as a stepping stone toward growth and learning is essential.

“I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life, and that is why I succeed.” — Michael Jordan

Your pursuit of security is what’s hindering you from reaching greatness. You can’t be safe and still be great because greatness will require you to take risks and try things you’ve never done before. But it’s in taking risks that you find security because proper security is having no fear of trying.

Nothing great is built in your comfort zone. Life is all about taking risks. It’s a daring adventure or nothing at all.

What’s stopping you? In the face of death, life’s fears hold no meaning. So live while you are still alive.

Go out, try things, do what scares you, let go of your doubts and fears, and embrace the uncertainties. What’s life if we aim for less because we fear more?

Take the risk; it’s a part of life, not part of it. Never take the risk of missing the chance to live.

People tend to regret missed opportunities more than failed attempts.

“Winners are not afraid of losing. But losers are. Failure is part of the process of success. People who avoid failure also avoid success.” — Robert Kiyosaki

FTX Fraud, Political Donations and False Altruism

Posted on by

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) admits masquerading as ‘woke Westerner’.

Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), the founder and CEO of collapsed cryptocurrency exchange FTX, revealed that ‘the woke appearance’ that he personified and his company displayed was all a “dumb game.”

In an interview, Bankman-Fried confessed that the fake window dressing of altruism was mostly a front and that the performance was done “so everyone likes us.”

Until last week, FTX was the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange and was valued at $32 billion. However, the digital coin exchange collapsed and filed for bankruptcy.

In addition, between $1 billion and $2 billion in customer funds reportedly vanished from the FTX cryptocurrency exchange via corporate fraud, via an apparent hack and/or via an “unauthorized access” by Bankman-Fried.

In an emergency court filing, evidence suggests Bahamian regulators directed former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried to gain “unauthorized access” to FTX systems to obtain digital assets belonging to the company and to transfer those assets to the custody of the Bahamian government.

Bankman-Fried was a Democrat megadonor.

  • He reportedly contributed more than $5 million to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential campaign.
  • He was the second-biggest individual donor behind George Soros to Democrats in the 2021-2022 election cycle – donating $37 million.
  • He planned to donate “north of $100 million” to Democrats in the 2024 presidential election, but pledged to have a “soft ceiling” of $1 billion in donations to Democrats if former President Donald Trump ran again.

The concern now is whether Democrats will be obliged morally to ‘give back’ the apparent illicit political donations from Bankman-Fried.

A liberal darling

Bankman-Fried, a self-proclaimed “effective altruist,” was promoted by Democrats and hyped up by the media. However, in a new interview, Bankman-Fried confessed that he used his virtuous stances as a front to win the game.

SBF was one of the featured speakers at World Economic Forum 2022 in Davos, Switzerland.

In September, SBF was a featured speaker at the annual meeting for the Clinton Global Initiative.

SBF was slated to be a featured speaker at a summit hosted by the New York Times on Nov. 30, along with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D), and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Bankman-Fried said it was “never the intention” to squander away investors’ money, but “sometimes life creeps up on you.”

References:

  1. https://www.theblaze.com/news/ftx-sam-bankman-fried-woke-esg
  2. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/17/ftx-suggests-sam-bankman-fried-transferred-assets-to-bahamas-government-custody-after-bankruptcy-filing.html

Failure has to be part of Growth

Posted on by

Failure has to be part of growth.

“As a company grows, everything needs to scale, including the size of your failed experiments. If the size of your failures isn’t growing, you’re not going to be inventing at a size that can actually move the needle,” Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon wrote in his 2018 annual letter to shareholders.

This tolerance for failure is deeply ingrained in Amazon’s culture. It’s a point Bezos has made every year since the very first Amazon shareholder letter in 1997.

“We will continue to measure our programs and the effectiveness of our investments analytically, to jettison those that do not provide acceptable returns, and to step up our investment in those that work best. We will continue to learn from both our successes and our failures.”

References:

  1. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/jeff-bezos-why-you-cant-feel-bad-about-failure.html
  2. https://www.businessinsider.com/how-amazon-ceo-jeff-bezos-thinks-about-failure-2016-5

Investing Principles and Rules

Posted on by

Value investing is one of the most preferred ways to find strong companies and buy their stocks at a reasonable price in any type of market.

Value investors, such as Warren Buffett and Monish Pabrai, use fundamental analysis and traditional valuation metrics like intrinsic a value to find companies that they believe are being undervalued intrinsically by the stock market.

A stock is not just a ticker symbol; it is an ownership interest in an actual business with an underlying value that does not depend on its share market price.

Inflation eats away at your returns and takes away your wealth. Inflation is easy to overlook and it is important to measure your investing success not just by what you make, but by how much you keep after inflation. Defenses against inflation include:

  • Buying stocks (at the right prices),
  • REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts), and
  • TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities).

The future value of every investment is a function of its present price. The higher the price you pay, the lower your return will be.

No matter how careful you are, the one risk no investor can ever eliminate is the risk of being wrong. Only by insisting on a margin of safety  – by never overpaying, no matter how exciting an investment seems to be – can you minimize your odds of error.

Knowing that you are responsible is fundamental to saving for the future, building wealth and achieving financial freedom. It’s the primary secret to your financial success and it’s inside yourself. If you become a critical thinker and you invest with patient confidence, you can take steady advantage of even the worst bear markets. By developing your discipline and courage, you can refuse to let other people’s mood swings govern your financial destiny. In the end, how your investments behave is much less important than how you behave.

Every investment is the present value of future cash flow. Everything Money

Three things to know is that it’s important to understand and acknowledge that a stock is a piece of a business. Thus, it becomes essential to understand the business..

  • Principle #1: Always Invest with a Margin of Safety – Margin of safety is the principle of buying a security at a significant discount to its intrinsic value, which is thought to not only provide high-return opportunities but also to minimize the downside risk of an investment. No matter how careful you are, the one risk no investor can ever eliminate is the risk of being wrong. Only by insisting on a margin of safety  – by never overpaying, no matter how exciting an investment seems to be – can you minimize your odds of error.
  • Principle #2: Expect Volatility and Profit from It – Investing in stocks means dealing with volatility. Instead of running for the exits during times of market stress, the smart investor greets downturns as chances to find great investments. The guru of value investing Benjamin Graham illustrated this with the analogy of “Mr. Market,” the imaginary business partner of each and every investor. Mr. Market offers investors a daily price quote at which he would either buy an investor out or sell his share of the business. Sometimes, he will be excited about the prospects for the business and quote a high price. Other times, he is depressed about the business’s prospects and quotes a low price. The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism (which makes stocks too expensive) and unjustified pessimism (which makes them too cheap). The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.
  • Principle #3: Know What Kind of Investor You Are – Graham advised that investors know their investment selves. To illustrate this, he made clear distinctions among various groups operating in the stock market.1 Active vs. Passive Investors Graham referred to active and passive investors as “enterprising investors” (requires patience, discipline, eagerness to learn, and lots of time) and “defensive investors.”1 You only have two real choices: the first choice is to make a serious commitment in time and energy to become a good investor who equates the quality and amount of hands-on research with the expected return. If this isn’t your cup of tea, then be content to get a passive (possibly lower) return, but with much less time and work. Graham turned the academic notion of “risk = return” on its head. For him, “work = return.” The more work you put into your investments, the higher your return should be.

Because the stock market has the emotions of fear and greed, the lesson here is that you shouldn’t let Mr. Market’s views dictate your own emotions, or worse, lead you in your investment decisions. Instead, you should form your own estimates of the business’s value based on a sound and rational examination of the facts.

References:

  1. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/07/grahamprinciples.asp
  2. https://jsilva.blog/2020/06/22/intelligent-investor-summary/

Sequence of Returns Risk in Retirement

Posted on by

A stock market pullback can pose a risk early in retirement.

Retirees face many risks when investing for retirement. Markets crash, inflation can eat into your returns, you might even worry about outliving your savings. And, there’s another big retirement risk: Sequence of returns risk.

Down markets can pose significant “sequence of returns” risk in the early years of retirement. Sequence risk is the danger that the timing of withdrawals from a retirement account will have a negative impact on the overall rate of return available to the investor, according to Investopedia.

A “sequence of returns” risk is basically about how the order, or sequence, of stock returns over time — combined with your portfolio withdrawals — can impact your balance down the road.

Once you start withdrawing income, you’re affected by the change in the sequence in which the returns occurred. During your retirement years, if a high proportion of negative returns occur in the beginning years of your retirement, it will have a lasting negative effect and reduce the amount of income you can withdraw over your lifetime.

Timing is everything. Sequence risk is the danger that the timing of withdrawals from a retirement account will damage the investor’s overall return. Account withdrawals during a bear market are more costly than the same withdrawals in a bull market.

“If there’s a big loss in the market and you’re taking withdrawals, you could be taking more from your portfolio than what it can make up for,” said certified financial planner Avani Ramnani, managing director at Francis Financial in New York. “If that happens early in retirement … the recovery may be very weak and put you in danger of not recovering at all or being lower than where you would have been and therefore jeopardizing your retirement lifestyle.”

One of the basic rules of investing is that a long-term strategy is self-correcting. And, for long-term investors — those whose retirement is many years or decades away — such market drops matter less because there’s time for their portfolios to recover from this risk before they need to start relying on that money for cash flow in retirement.

Retirement is a long game.

Since running out of money in retirement is the primary concern for most retirees, fortunately, there are options for mitigating the risk:

  • Plan to spend more conservatively since the less you spend consistently, the less you have to withdraw overall.
  • Withdraw and spend less when your portfolio performance is suffering. 
  • Reduce the risk in your portfolio by creating a low stock allocation early in retirement but increase it over time, or use bonds for short-term expenses and stocks for long-term ones.
  • Set aside assets outside your investment portfolio that can support your spending needs when stocks are underperforming.

You may simply be able to meet your goals without taking on the risk that comes with stocks.

Key Takeaways

Sequence of return risk is basically the risk that market declines in the early years of retirement, paired with ongoing withdrawals, could significantly reduce the longevity of your portfolio. Thus, timing is everything, and in retirement early market declines, particularly if they are paired with rising inflation, can have a huge effect on how long a nest egg can sustain you in retirement.

The recommended way to mitigate sequence of returns risk when you can’t predict future market performance or future rates of inflation is by managing spending and/or keeping a portion of your portfolio in liquid assets, such as cash or bonds, to ride out the market downturn.

When market returns are high and inflation is low, retirees can distribute more from their portfolios, according to Forbes Advisor Staff Editors Rob Berger and Benjamin Curry. When market returns are negative and inflation is higher than expected, retirees reduce the amount of their annual distributions.

Remember, no one can forecast market performance or economic inflation. Yet, by managing your spending, you can adjust annual withdrawal amounts to reflect inflation and market returns.

References:

  1. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sequence-risk.asp
  2. https://www.thebalance.com/how-sequence-risk-affects-your-retirement-money-2388672
  3. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/21/stock-market-pullback-is-a-big-risk-early-in-retirement-what-to-know.html
  4. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/retirement/sequence-of-returns-risk/

Investing Truths by Peter Lynch

Posted on by

“Wisdom acquisition is a moral duty. It’s not something you do just to advance in life. Wisdom acquisition is a moral duty. As a corollary to that proposition which is very important, it means that you are hooked for lifetime learning. And without lifetime learning, you are not going to do very well.”  Charlie Munger

Peter Lynch stressed the importance of looking at the underlying business enterprise strength, which he believed eventually shows up in the company’s long-term stock price performance. Also, pay a reasonable price relative to the company’s market value.

Here are important investing truths from Peter Lynch:

  1. Know what you own and be able to explain why you own it.  Only buy what you understand. ” Never invest in any company before you’ve done the homework on the company’s earnings prospects, financial condition, competitive position, plans for expansion, and so forth.”
  2. Compounding of capital and principal takes time. Be patient, because most great wealth from the stock market is built over decades. “Often, there is no correlation between success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock over a few months or even years. In the long term, there is 100% correlation between the success of the company and the success of the stock. This disparity is the key to making money; it pays to be patient and to own successful companies.”
  3. Simple is usually better than complex and smart. “If you’re prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won’t get bored.”
  4. Volatility of the stock market is guaranteed. “You’ve got to look in the mirror every day and say: What am I going to do if the market goes down 10%? What do I do if it goes down 20%? Am I going to sell? Am I going to get out? If that’s your answer, you should consider reducing your stock holdings today.”
  5. Finding undervalued companies selling below their intrinsic value is a lot harder today. “A stock-market decline is as routine as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you. A decline is a great opportunity to pick up the bargains left behind by investors who are fleeing the storm in panic.”
  6. Start early and at a very eary age. Invest for the long term…stocks are relatively predictable over 10-20 years. “Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies. You can afford to be patient – even if you missed Walmart (WMT, Financial) in the first five years, it was a great stock to own in the next five years. Time is against you when you own options.”
  7. Focus on the company behind the stock. Do not become overly attached to a stock. “Although it’s easy to forget sometimes, a share is not a lottery ticket…it’s part-ownership of a business.”
  8. Don’t try to predict the market. “Nobody can predict the interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what‘s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.”
  9. Study history. Market crashes are great opportunities. “During the Gold Rush, most would-be miners lost money, but people who sold them picks, shovels, tents, and blue-jeans (Levi Strauss) made a nice profit. Today, you can look for non-internet companies that indirectly benefit from internet traffic (package delivery is an obvious example); or you can invest in manufacturers of switches and related gizmos that keep the traffic moving.”
  10. It’s very tough for a company to go bankrupt if a company has more cash than debt or if they do not have debt. “The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.”
  11. When you own stocks, it will alwalys be scary due to volatility and there is always something to worry about.  Everyone is a long term investor until stocks go down. “There is always something to worry about. Avoid weekend thinking and ignore the latest dire predictions of newscasters. Sell a stock because the company’s fundamentals deteriorate, not because the sky is falling.”
  12. When yields on long-term government bonds exceed the dividend yields of the S&P 500 by 6% or more, sell stocks and buy bonds. ““In the long run, a portfolio of well-chosen stocks and/or equity mutual funds will always outperform a portfolio of bonds or a money-market account. In the long run, a portfolio of poorly chosen stocks won’t outperform the money left under the mattress.”

Emotions can be a real performance killer according to Lynch, if market drops get you selling out in a panic, or market surges have you greedily snapping up overvalued shares. The best investors will do the opposite.

“The single greatest edge an investor can have is a long-term orientation.” Seth Klarman

References:

  1. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/06/peterlynch.asp
  2. https://www.fool.com/retirement/2020/04/07/9-investing-tips-from-peter-lynch-that-you-shouldn.aspx
  3. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/341584/peter-lynch-golden-rules-for-investing-
  4. https://www.valuewalk.com/2015/07/peter-lynchs-investing-principles-and-25-golden-rules/
  5. https://www.suredividend.com/peter-lynch-investing-lessons/

Investing Goals, Time Horizon and Risk Tolerance

Posted on by

When it involves investing, it’s important that you start with your financial goals, time horizon and risk tolerance.

At times in calendar year 2020, the global economy seemed on the verge of collapse. Risk, ruin and enormous opportunity were the big stories of the year. Overall, the year was marked by change, opportunity, calamity and resilience in the financial markets.

Yet, in the financial markets, winners dramatically outweighed the losers, according to Forbes Magazine. Almost overnight, new winners were born in communications, technology, lodging and investments. Innovative technology companies in the S&P 500 Index propelled U.S. markets higher. And, many industries were more resilient than expected, in part because of an unprecedented monetary and fiscal response from Washington.

In light of the unprecedented upheaval, you, like everyone else, want to see their money grow over the long term, but it’s important to determine what investments best match your own unique financial goals, time horizon and tolerance for risk.

To learn the basics of investing, it might help to start at one place, take a few steps, and slowly expand outward.

Begin by Setting Goals

As an investor, your general aim should be to grow your money and diversify your assets. But your investing can take on many different forms.

For instance, it might help you to decide the investing strategies you intend to follow in order to grow your money. Such as whether you are interested in purchasing assets that could appreciate in value, such as equity stocks and funds, or play it relative safe with bonds and cash equivalents.

If you’re interested in investing in bonds, you will receive a steady stream of income over a predetermined time period, after which you expect repayment of your principal.

You might also be interested in pursuing both growth and income, via dividend stocks.

Learning to invest means learning to weigh potential returns against risk since no investment is absolutely safe, and there’s no guarantee that an investment will work out in your favor. In a nutshell, investing is about taking “calculated risks.”

Nevertheless, the risk of losing money—no matter how seemingly intelligent or calculated your approach—can be stressful. This is why it’s important for you to really get to know your risk tolerance level.  When it comes to your choice of assets, it’s important to bear in mind that some securities are riskier than others. This may hold true for both equity and debt securities (i.e., “stocks and bonds”).

Your investment time horizon can also significantly affect your views on risk. Changes in your outlook may require a shift in your investment style and risk expectations. For instance, saving toward a short-term goal might require a lower risk tolerance, whereas a longer investing horizon can give your portfolio time to smooth out the occasional bumps in the market. But again, it depends on your risk tolerance, financial goals, and overall knowledge and experience.

References:

  1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2021/12/28/forbes-favorites-2020-the-years-best-finance–investing-stories/
  2. https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/investing/learn-to-invest-money-17155

Investment Risks and Taxes

Posted on by

No investment is completely free of risk.

When it comes to investing, it’s critical to understand that no investment is 100% safe and all investments come with risk. Unlike when you store your money in a savings account, investing has no guarantees that you’ll earn a return. When you invest, experiencing a financial loss is a possibility.

Investing means that you’re putting your money to work into a financial asset in the expectation of getting a positive return. Yet, where there’s the chance of financial gain, there’s always going to be the chance of a financial loss. Investment risk and investment reward are two sides of the same investing coin.

On the other hand, saving — which is basically parking your money in an account so it’ll keep its value.

Some investments are considered safer than others, but no investment is completely free of risk, because there’s more than one kind of risk, according to SoFi.

Different Types of Risk

Investors who choose products and strategies to avoid market volatility may be leaving themselves open to other risks, including:

  • Inflation risk – An asset could become less valuable as inflation erodes its purchasing power. If an investment is earning little or nothing (a certificate of deposit or savings account, for example), it won’t buy as much in the future as prices on various goods and services go up.
  • Interest rate risk – A change in interest rates could reduce the value of certain investments. These can include bonds and other fixed-rate, “safe” investment vehicles.
  • Liquidity risk – Could an asset be sold or converted if the investor needs cash? Collections, jewelry, a home, or a car could take a while to market—and if the owner is forced to sell quickly, the price received could be lower than the asset is worth. Certain investments (certificates of deposit, some annuities) also may have some liquidity risk because they may offer a higher return in exchange for a longer term, and there may be a penalty if the investor cashes out early.
  • Tax risk – An investment could lose its value because of the way it’s taxed. For example, different types of bonds may be taxed in different ways.
  • Legislative risk- A change in law could lower the value of an investment. For example, if the government imposes new regulations on a business, it could result in higher costs (and lower profits) for the company or affect how it can serve its customers. Or, if taxes go up in the future, savers who put all or most of their money into tax-deferred accounts [IRAs, 401(k)s, etc.] could end up with a hefty tax bill when they retire.
  • Global risk – An investment in a foreign stock could lose value because of currency problems, political turmoil, and other factors.
  • Reinvestment risk – When an investment matures (think CDs and bonds), the investor might not be able to replace it with a similar vehicle that has the same or a higher rate of return.

Taxes

“Worried about an IRS audit? Avoid what’s called a red flag. That’s something the IRS always looks for. For example, say you have some money left in your bank account after paying taxes. That’s a red flag.” Jay Leno

Taxes are a key consideration for investors – and not one that investors might think about when logging into their brokerage account. Yes, $0 trades are exciting, but don’t forget about taxes — which are an investors “biggest expense” or every traders “silent partner”.

The key to taxes is to not just think about taxes in tax season, because there’s not that much you can do besides contribute to an IRA.

When it comes to tax planning, most of it has to be done before the year is over. One strategy that’s very useful is tax-loss harvesting. Essentially, it allows investors with any sort of investment losses to use that to offset any gains, reducing the amount of taxes owed.

Investors can use the tax-loss harvesting proceeds to buy something else, and it can even be very similar. Or they can use the money to rebalance. “Don’t hesitate to take losses and use them to your advantage,” said Hayden Adams, director of tax and financial planning at Charles Schwab. “You’re likely to have losses and tax-loss harvesting is a great way to rebalance to get back to proper risk tolerance.”

The key for investors is to know the rules and work within them.

References:

  1. https://www.sofi.com/learn/content/what-is-a-safe-investment/
  2. https://www.businessinsider.com/safe-investments
  3. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-new-stock-traders-need-to-know-and-do-before-the-end-of-the-year-192426159.html