Category Archives: Speculating, Investing

Staying Invested Matters

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Investors are more likely to reach their long-term goals if they remain invested and avoid short-term decisions that may take them off course.

Staying the course during market volatility is often difficult for many investors. Some choose to move to cash investments, while others try to time the market. Regrettably, these investors are often buying high and selling low—and miss the rallies that follow the challenging periods.

Yet, staying invested through market ups and downs can help you stay on track to reach your investment goals.

Once you’ve determined how much you want to invest, setting up automatic transfers to your investment account or periodic investments can help you stay on track.

For example, investors often make suboptimal investing decisions when emotions take over, tending to buy out of excitement when the market is going up and sell out of fear when the market is falling. Markets do ultimately normalize, and when they do, those who stay invested may benefit more than those who don’t.  Consider this:

  • By missing some of the market’s best days, investors can lose out on critical opportunities to grow their portfolio. Market timing can have devastating results.
  • Seven of the best 10 days occurred within two weeks of the 10 worst days.
  • The second worst day for the markets during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, March 12, 2020, was immediately followed by the second best day of the year.

Trying to time the bottom is never considered a sound strategy for long-term investing.

Staying invested during periods of heighten market volatility is an important strategy as, historically, six of the ten best days in the market occur within two weeks of the ten worst days; those who miss the best days miss out on performance.

Thus, the decision to stay invested during market turmoil is often better than timing
when to sell and buy.

References:

  1. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/principles-for-investing/
  2. https://www.pimco.com/en-us/resources/education/the-benefits-of-staying-invested/

Growing Your Money

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When investing your money in the stock market, doing your research and investing in what you know are crucial elements of successful investing. You don’t have to be a financial expert to start buying stocks, but the more you know going in, the more likely your investing journey will be successful.

It’s critical to understand that stocks represent legal ownership in a company; you become a part-owner of the company when you purchase shares.

People ultimately invest in stocks with one end-goal in mind: to grow their money and build wealth.

But it’s important to note that growing your money and building wealth are not guaranteed. Investing in individual stocks carries much more risk than buying bonds or putting your money in index funds.

As you begin to research stocks, first know how much risk you can take, or your risk tolerance, and your time horizon.

Financial experts typically recommend that you only invest money that you can afford to lose and, since investment returns are typically maximized over the long term, only invest money that you won’t need in the short term (less than three to five years).

Stock’s Value vs. Price

Buying stocks equates to owning companies which lets you be a part of something that’s normally very exclusive. It allows you to invest in pieces of well-known companies, such as Amazon, Google or Apple.

A company’s stock price has nothing to do with its value, because the share price means nothing on its own.

The price of a stock will go down when there are more sellers than buyers. The price will go up when there are more buyers than sellers.

A company’s performance doesn’t directly influence its stock price. Investors’ reactions to the performance decide how a stock price fluctuates.

The relationship of price-to-earnings and return on equity is what determines if a stock is overvalued or undervalued. Essentially, You should make no assumptions based on price alone.

Knowing when to sell is just as important as buying stocks. Most retail investors buy when the stock market is rising and sell when it’s falling, but smart investors follow a strategy based on their financial plan and requirements.

Benjamin Graham is known as the father of value investing, and he’s preached that the real money in investing will have to be made not by buying and selling, but from owning and holding securities, receiving interest and dividends, and benefiting from the stock’s long-term increase in intrinsic value through compounding.

Learning how to invest in stocks might take time, but you’ll be on your way to growing your money and building your wealth when you do so. But, keep your risk tolerance, time horizon and financial goals in mind,

References:

  1. https://www.thebalance.com/the-complete-beginner-s-guide-to-investing-in-stock-358114

Investing Truths by Peter Lynch

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“Wisdom acquisition is a moral duty. It’s not something you do just to advance in life. Wisdom acquisition is a moral duty. As a corollary to that proposition which is very important, it means that you are hooked for lifetime learning. And without lifetime learning, you are not going to do very well.”  Charlie Munger

Peter Lynch stressed the importance of looking at the underlying business enterprise strength, which he believed eventually shows up in the company’s long-term stock price performance. Also, pay a reasonable price relative to the company’s market value.

Here are important investing truths from Peter Lynch:

  1. Know what you own and be able to explain why you own it.  Only buy what you understand. ” Never invest in any company before you’ve done the homework on the company’s earnings prospects, financial condition, competitive position, plans for expansion, and so forth.”
  2. Compounding of capital and principal takes time. Be patient, because most great wealth from the stock market is built over decades. “Often, there is no correlation between success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock over a few months or even years. In the long term, there is 100% correlation between the success of the company and the success of the stock. This disparity is the key to making money; it pays to be patient and to own successful companies.”
  3. Simple is usually better than complex and smart. “If you’re prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won’t get bored.”
  4. Volatility of the stock market is guaranteed. “You’ve got to look in the mirror every day and say: What am I going to do if the market goes down 10%? What do I do if it goes down 20%? Am I going to sell? Am I going to get out? If that’s your answer, you should consider reducing your stock holdings today.”
  5. Finding undervalued companies selling below their intrinsic value is a lot harder today. “A stock-market decline is as routine as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you. A decline is a great opportunity to pick up the bargains left behind by investors who are fleeing the storm in panic.”
  6. Start early and at a very eary age. Invest for the long term…stocks are relatively predictable over 10-20 years. “Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies. You can afford to be patient – even if you missed Walmart (WMT, Financial) in the first five years, it was a great stock to own in the next five years. Time is against you when you own options.”
  7. Focus on the company behind the stock. Do not become overly attached to a stock. “Although it’s easy to forget sometimes, a share is not a lottery ticket…it’s part-ownership of a business.”
  8. Don’t try to predict the market. “Nobody can predict the interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what‘s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.”
  9. Study history. Market crashes are great opportunities. “During the Gold Rush, most would-be miners lost money, but people who sold them picks, shovels, tents, and blue-jeans (Levi Strauss) made a nice profit. Today, you can look for non-internet companies that indirectly benefit from internet traffic (package delivery is an obvious example); or you can invest in manufacturers of switches and related gizmos that keep the traffic moving.”
  10. It’s very tough for a company to go bankrupt if a company has more cash than debt or if they do not have debt. “The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.”
  11. When you own stocks, it will alwalys be scary due to volatility and there is always something to worry about.  Everyone is a long term investor until stocks go down. “There is always something to worry about. Avoid weekend thinking and ignore the latest dire predictions of newscasters. Sell a stock because the company’s fundamentals deteriorate, not because the sky is falling.”
  12. When yields on long-term government bonds exceed the dividend yields of the S&P 500 by 6% or more, sell stocks and buy bonds. ““In the long run, a portfolio of well-chosen stocks and/or equity mutual funds will always outperform a portfolio of bonds or a money-market account. In the long run, a portfolio of poorly chosen stocks won’t outperform the money left under the mattress.”

Emotions can be a real performance killer according to Lynch, if market drops get you selling out in a panic, or market surges have you greedily snapping up overvalued shares. The best investors will do the opposite.

“The single greatest edge an investor can have is a long-term orientation.” Seth Klarman

References:

  1. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/06/peterlynch.asp
  2. https://www.fool.com/retirement/2020/04/07/9-investing-tips-from-peter-lynch-that-you-shouldn.aspx
  3. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/341584/peter-lynch-golden-rules-for-investing-
  4. https://www.valuewalk.com/2015/07/peter-lynchs-investing-principles-and-25-golden-rules/
  5. https://www.suredividend.com/peter-lynch-investing-lessons/

The Importance of Return on Equity

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ROE measures how much profit a company generates per dollar of shareholders’ equity.

Return on equity (ROE) is a must-know financial ratio. It is one of many numbers investors can use to measure return and support investing decision. It measures how many dollars of profit are generated by a company’s management for each dollar of shareholder’s equity.

The metric reveals just how well the company utilizes its equity to generate profits.  It reveals the company’s efficiency at turning shareholder investments into profits and explains, mathematically, the ratio of a company’s net income relative to its shareholder equity.

ROE is very useful for comparing the performance of similar companies in the same industry and can show you which are making most efficient use of their (and by extension investors’) money.

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett uses ROE as part of his investment decision making process. Buffet cares deeply about a company that uses its money wisely and efficiently. He believes that a successful stock investment is a result first and foremost of the underlying business; its value to the owner comes primarily from its ability to generate earnings at an increasing rate each year.

Buffett examines management’s use of owner’s equity, looking for management that has proven it is able to employ equity in new moneymaking ventures, or for stock buybacks when they offer a greater return.

What is ROE

Return on equity is a ratio of a public company’s net income to its shareholders’ equity, or the value of the company’s assets minus its liabilities. This is known as shareholders’ equity because it is the amount that would be divided up among those who held its stock if a company closed.

The basic formula for calculating ROE simply is to divide net income from a given period by shareholder equity. The net earnings can be found on the earnings statement from the company’s most recent annual report, and the shareholder equity will be listed on the company’s balance sheet. The specific ROE formula looks like this:

ROE = (Net Earnings / Shareholders’ Equity) x 100 or EPS / Book Value

“ROE tells you how good or bad management is doing with your investment,” says Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners in Bethesda, Maryland. “Higher ROEs generally stem from profitable businesses that enjoy competitive advantages within a given industry.”

A high ROE doesn’t always mean management is efficiently generating profits. ROE can be affected by the amount that a company borrows.

Increasing debt can cause ROE to grow even when management is not necessarily getting better at generating profit. Share buybacks and asset write-downs may also cause ROE to rise when the company’s profit is declining.

On the other hand, idle cash in excess of what the business needs to continue operations reduces the apparent profitability of the company when measured by return on equity. Distributing idle cash to shareholders is an effective way to boost its return on equity.

Key Takeaway

Return on Equity measures how efficiently a company generates net income based on each dollar invested by company’s shareholders.

A steady or increasing ROE is a company that knows how to successfully reinvest their earnings. This is important because most companies retain their earnings in the equity of the business.

A declining ROE is symbolic of executive management that is unable to successfully reinvest their capital in income producing assets. Companies like this should elect to pay most of their earnings to shareholders as dividends.

References:

  1. https://smartasset.com/investing/return-on-equity
  2. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/roe-return-on-equity/
  3. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/5-ways-improve-return-equity-2015-01-21
  4. https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/what-is-return-on-equity-the-ultimate-guide-to-roe

Greater Fool Theory | Motley Fool

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“Greater fool theory states that investors can achieve positive returns by buying an asset without concern for valuation fundamentals and other important factors because someone else will buy it at a higher price.”

Simply stated, investors expect to make a profit on the stocks they purchase because another investor (the “greater fool”) will be willing to pay even more for the stock, regardless if the stock’s price is overvalued based on fundamentals analysis or long-term performance outlooks.

According to The Motley Fool, this philosophy relies on the expectation that someone else will get caught up in market momentum (frenzy) or have their own reasons for why the asset is worth more than the price you paid. 

In the short term, popular sentiment plays the biggest role in shaping stock market pricing action, but fundamental factors including revenue, earnings, cash flow, and debt determine how a company’s stock performs over longer periods.

In short, it is possible to achieve strong returns by using the greater fool theory, but it’s risky and far from the best path to achieving strong long-term performance. 

Specifically with regard to the stock market, the Greater Fool Theory becomes relevant when the price of a stock goes up so much that it is being driven by the expectation that buyers for the stock can always be found, not by the intrinsic value (cash flows) of the company.

The Greater Fool Theory is a very risky, speculative strategy that is not recommended especially for long-term investors.

References:

  1. https://www.fool.com/investing/how-to-invest/greater-fool-theory/
  2. https://www.hartfordfunds.com/investor-insight/the-greater-fool-theory-what-is-it.html