Category Archives: Stock Market

Fear of Higher Interest Rates Ending Technology Stocks Growth

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Technology stocks have been the driving force behind the longest-running bull market in history.

The technology sector is vast, comprising gadget makers, software developers, wireless providers, streaming services, semiconductor companies, and cloud computing providers, to name just a few, according to Motley Fool. Any company that sells a product or service heavily infused with technology likely belongs to the tech sector.

And, the pandemic has been mostly positive for the tech industry. Companies like Amazon have thrived as consumers shifted hard toward e-commerce. Additionally, companies like Microsoft have also done well, buoyed by demand for collaboration software, devices, gaming, and cloud computing services as people spend more time at home.

Many of the most valuable companies in the world are technology companies.

Growth stocks have outperformed for 12 years and counting. Since the end of the Great Recession in 2009, growth stocks have been a driving force on Wall Street. Many of the most valuable companies in the world, like Apple and Microsoft, are technology companies.

Historically low lending interest rates and the Federal Reserve’s ongoing quantitative easing measures have created a pool of abundant cheap capital that fast-paced businesses have used to expand operations and investors have used to fuel the longest running bull market.

Technology stocks have been a key component of the market’s rising trend. Since the financial markets collapsed, demand for consumer electronics and related products and services has caused the tech sector to far outperform every other segment. 

However, revenue growth is starting to slow, although the delta variant surge may drive consumers away from stores once again. The economic dynamics favoring technology’s 12 year growth are changing.

Inflation is running rampant, and the Federal Reserve has indicated it’s become more hawkish on fighting it, indicating as many as three interest rate hikes may be in the cards calendar year 2022, effectively ending its loose money policy. Higher interest rates hurt growth stocks because growth stocks intrinsic value is based on the value of their future earnings. And, those future earnings are not worth as much if interest rates go up.

To best analyze tech stocks, first determine if the company is profitable or not.

For mature tech companies that produce profits, the price-to-earnings ratio is a useful metric. Divide stock price by per-share earnings and you get a multiple that tells you how highly the market values the company’s current earnings. The higher the multiple, the more value the market is placing on future earnings growth.

Many tech companies aren’t profitable, so the price-to-earnings ratio can’t be used evaluate them.

Revenue growth matters more for these younger companies.

If you’re investing in something unproven, you want to make sure it has solid revenue growth.

For unprofitable tech companies, it’s important that the bottom line be moving from losses toward profits.

As a company grows, it should become more efficient, especially when it comes to the sales and managing expenses. If it’s not, or if spending is growing as a percentage of revenue, that could indicate something is wrong.

Ultimately, a good tech stock is one that trades at a reasonable valuation given its growth prospects.

Accurately figuring out those growth prospects is the hard part. If you expect earnings to skyrocket in the coming years, paying a premium for the stock can make sense. But if you’re wrong about those growth prospects, your investment may not work out.

Thus, investing in technology stocks can be risky, but you can reduce your risk by investing only when you feel confident their growth prospects justify their often lofty price to earnings valuations.

References:

  1. https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/20/2-top-tech-stocks-ready-for-a-bull-run/
  2. https://www.fool.com/auth/authenticate/
  3. https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/market-sectors/information-technology/

Investing Principles and Rules

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Value investing is one of the most preferred ways to find strong companies and buy their stocks at a reasonable price in any type of market.

Value investors, such as Warren Buffett and Monish Pabrai, use fundamental analysis and traditional valuation metrics like intrinsic a value to find companies that they believe are being undervalued intrinsically by the stock market.

A stock is not just a ticker symbol; it is an ownership interest in an actual business with an underlying value that does not depend on its share market price.

Inflation eats away at your returns and takes away your wealth. Inflation is easy to overlook and it is important to measure your investing success not just by what you make, but by how much you keep after inflation. Defenses against inflation include:

  • Buying stocks (at the right prices),
  • REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts), and
  • TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities).

The future value of every investment is a function of its present price. The higher the price you pay, the lower your return will be.

No matter how careful you are, the one risk no investor can ever eliminate is the risk of being wrong. Only by insisting on a margin of safety  – by never overpaying, no matter how exciting an investment seems to be – can you minimize your odds of error.

Knowing that you are responsible is fundamental to saving for the future, building wealth and achieving financial freedom. It’s the primary secret to your financial success and it’s inside yourself. If you become a critical thinker and you invest with patient confidence, you can take steady advantage of even the worst bear markets. By developing your discipline and courage, you can refuse to let other people’s mood swings govern your financial destiny. In the end, how your investments behave is much less important than how you behave.

Every investment is the present value of future cash flow. Everything Money

Three things to know is that it’s important to understand and acknowledge that a stock is a piece of a business. Thus, it becomes essential to understand the business..

  • Principle #1: Always Invest with a Margin of Safety – Margin of safety is the principle of buying a security at a significant discount to its intrinsic value, which is thought to not only provide high-return opportunities but also to minimize the downside risk of an investment. No matter how careful you are, the one risk no investor can ever eliminate is the risk of being wrong. Only by insisting on a margin of safety  – by never overpaying, no matter how exciting an investment seems to be – can you minimize your odds of error.
  • Principle #2: Expect Volatility and Profit from It – Investing in stocks means dealing with volatility. Instead of running for the exits during times of market stress, the smart investor greets downturns as chances to find great investments. The guru of value investing Benjamin Graham illustrated this with the analogy of “Mr. Market,” the imaginary business partner of each and every investor. Mr. Market offers investors a daily price quote at which he would either buy an investor out or sell his share of the business. Sometimes, he will be excited about the prospects for the business and quote a high price. Other times, he is depressed about the business’s prospects and quotes a low price. The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism (which makes stocks too expensive) and unjustified pessimism (which makes them too cheap). The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.
  • Principle #3: Know What Kind of Investor You Are – Graham advised that investors know their investment selves. To illustrate this, he made clear distinctions among various groups operating in the stock market.1 Active vs. Passive Investors Graham referred to active and passive investors as “enterprising investors” (requires patience, discipline, eagerness to learn, and lots of time) and “defensive investors.”1 You only have two real choices: the first choice is to make a serious commitment in time and energy to become a good investor who equates the quality and amount of hands-on research with the expected return. If this isn’t your cup of tea, then be content to get a passive (possibly lower) return, but with much less time and work. Graham turned the academic notion of “risk = return” on its head. For him, “work = return.” The more work you put into your investments, the higher your return should be.

Because the stock market has the emotions of fear and greed, the lesson here is that you shouldn’t let Mr. Market’s views dictate your own emotions, or worse, lead you in your investment decisions. Instead, you should form your own estimates of the business’s value based on a sound and rational examination of the facts.

References:

  1. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/07/grahamprinciples.asp
  2. https://jsilva.blog/2020/06/22/intelligent-investor-summary/

A Stock’s Price vs. a Company’s Intrinsic Value

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“Stock prices fluctuate unpredictably.  But company values stay relatively steady.” Kenneth Jeffrey Marshall,

Value investing is one of the most popular ways to find great stocks in any market environment. Value investing represents an approach to investing, where investors evaluate the fundamentals or intrinsic values of companies rather than estimating the future market prices of stocks. The definition of a value stock, for our purposes, is a stock that is underpriced by the market or due to volatility relative to its worth or fundamentals.

Value investing is about finding stocks that are either flying under the radar and are compelling buys, or offer up tantalizing discounts when compared to fair value (or intrinsic value). According to Investopia, intrinsic value is a measure of what an asset is worth. In short, it’s the underlying value of a company and its cash flow.

The idea of value investing involves purchasing great stocks of companies priced by the market well below their intrinsic values, which can give investors a margin of safety. The margin of safety comes from buying good companies at cheap prices. It comes from buying good companies that you understand, and to do so at a discount to companies estimated intrinsic value. That discount is where the margin of safety comes from.

Great stocks shouldn’t get cheap. But sometimes they are.

Value investing also allows traders to detach from their emotions of fear and greed when stock prices fluctuate. It enables them to hold the stocks for long-term rather than buying and selling if they’re feeling wildly optimistic or pessimistic because of stock price and market volatility.

Price and value differ:

  • Price is what something can be purchased or sold for at a given time. Price fluctuates.
  • Value is what something is worth, it fluctuates less.
  • Identify the right price at which to buy stock
  • Hold quality stocks fearlessly during market swings

Value investors understand that over time, the market price of a stock will converge with its actual fundamental worth or intrinsic value. But at a single point in time, it may not. And those single points are enough to purchase good companies cheap or below its intrinsic value.

Value investors also understand that there always comes a time when glamorous businesses stop getting priced like rock stars, and start getting priced like businesses.

Over time, the average price of an asset does converge to the average worth of that asset. But in the short term they can be wildly different, since stock prices fluctuate unpredictably.  But company values stay relatively steady.  This insight is the basis of value investing, according to Kenneth Jeffrey Marshall, author of the investing book, “Good Stocks Cheap: Value Investing with Confidence for a Lifetime of Stock Market”.

The occasions when a stock price is far away from a company’s intrinsic value is when a patient value investor acts.

Value investing is buying companies for less than they’re worth…their intrinsic value. According to the Kenneth Jeffery Marshall, professor, value investor, and the author of “Good Stocks Cheap”, best value investing procedures to utilize include:

  • Do you understand the company
  • Is it a good company:
    • Has it been historically good
    • Will it be good in the future
    • Is it shareholder friendly
  • Is the stock price cheap or at what price will the company’s stock become cheap (margin of safety)

The secret of successful investing: Staying invested and patience. Stock prices can be volatile and can fluctuate unpredictably in the short term.  But the intrinsic values of companies stay relatively steady. Thus, you should chose to invest in companies selling for less than they are worth (intrinsic value) and not over pay for a company.

One way to find companies is by looking at several key metrics and financial ratios, many of which are crucial in the value stock selection process. There are several key metrics that value investors look at, which include:

  • Price to Earnings Ratio (PE). PE shows you how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings in a given stock. The best use of the PE ratio is to compare the stock’s current PE ratio with: a) where this ratio has been in the past; b) how it compares to the average for the industry/sector; and c) how it compares to the market as a whole.
  • Price/Sales ratio. P/Sales compares a given stock’s price to its total sales, where a lower value is generally considered better. This metric is preferred more than other value-focused ones because it looks at sales, something that is far harder to manipulate with accounting tricks than earnings. The best use of P/S ratio to compare it to the S&P 500 average. Also, you can evaluate the trend of the stock’s P/Sales over the past few years.
  • Price/Earnings to Growth ratio (PEG). PEG ratio is another great indicator of value. PEG ratio is a stock’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divided by the growth rate of its earnings for a specified time period. The PEG ratio is used to determine a stock’s value while also factoring in the company’s expected earnings growth, and it is thought to provide a more complete picture than the more standard P/E ratio. A lower PEG may indicate that a stock is undervalued.

The reality is that some of your selected stocks will lose money. That’s why it is important to diversify your investments, so that losses in a stock may be outweighed by gains in other stocks.

Strength of value investing

Deep value factors, such as book-to-price or tangible book-to-price, usually rally first, when actual levels of rates are still low, says Boris Lerner, Global Head of Quantitative Equity Research. Other value factors, such as earnings yield or free-cash-flow yield, tend to pick up later, as rates rise above trend.

Rising interest rates are the primary reason value investing has staying power. When inflation and rising interest rates are trending higher, it can clip the wings of pricey growth stocks, whose valuations are predicated on future returns, which make pricier growth stocks less appealing. When rates go up, it instantly raises the bar on far-out profits needed to justify today’s stock prices.

Because value names are typically mature companies with valuations based on current cash flow, rising rates don’t have the same impact. At the same time, many traditional value sectors, such as financials, directly benefit from rising rates.

Put the strength of value investing to work for you. In a nutshell, the basic tenet of value investing is paying less for a company than its worth.

  • References:
  1. https://growthwithvalue.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Good-Stocks-Cheap-Book-Summary.pdf
  2. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-cheap-value-stocks-buy-140144393.html
  3. https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/397977
  4. https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/value-stocks-forecast-2021
  5. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/949267/interview-holding-stocks-forever-with-professor-kenneth-jeffrey-marshall

Kenneth Jeffrey Marshall teaches value investing in the Masters in Finance program at the Stockholm School of Economics in Sweden, and at Stanford University. He also teaches asset management in the MBA program at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley. Marshall is a past member of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research; he taught Stanford’s first-ever online value investing course in 2015. He earned his MBA at Harvard Business School.

Margin of Safety

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“If you understood a business perfectly and the future of the business, you would need very little in the way of a margin of safety. So, the more vulnerable the business is, assuming you still want to invest in it, the larger the margin of safety you’d need. If you’re driving a truck across a bridge that says it holds 10,000 pounds and you’ve got a 9,800 pound vehicle, if the bridge is 6 inches above the crevice it covers, you may feel okay; but if it’s over the Grand Canyon, you may feel you want a little larger margin of safety.” Warren Buffett

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO, Berkshire Hathaway, said, “The three most important words in investing are margin of safety.” Margin of Safety is a measure of how “on sale” a company’s stock price is compared to the true value of the company. You need to be able to determine the value of a company and from that value determine a “buy price”. The difference between the two is the margin of safety.

Effectively, margin of safety means you pay less for an asset than what it’s intrinsically worth. It means to buy $10 dollar bills for $5 dollars. That’s the secret to great and successful investing. The margin of safety is the difference between the intrinsic value of a stock and the current market price of the stock. The intrinsic value of an asset is its actual value, that is, the present value of the asset found by calculating the total discounted future income it’s expected to generate.

The intrinsic value is calculated based on the 10 year discounted free cash flow (DFCF).

In other words, if the stock price of a company is below the actual value of the free cash flow (income) and assets of a company, the percentage difference is the Margin of Safety.  This is the discounted price at which you are buying a share in the company.

A higher margin of safety will reduce your investment risk. If an investor can buy a stock below its intrinsic value, the potential for a bad outcome, risk, is usually lower.

Warren Buffett likes a margin of safety of over 30%, meaning the stock price could drop by 30%, and he would still not lose money. Margin of safety is only an estimate of a stock’s risk and profit potential.

Buffett determines margin of safety by estimating the current and predicted earnings from a company from today and for the next ten years.  He then discounts the cash flow against inflation to get the current value of that cash.  This is the Intrinsic Value of the company. He bases intrinsic value on the discounted future free cash flows. He believes cash is a company’s most valuable asset, so he tries to project how much future cash a business will generate.

Margin of Safety is a value investing principle strategy. If the total value of all shares of a company is 30% less than the intrinsic value of that company, then the margin of safety would be 30%. In other words, if the stock price of a company is below the actual value of the cash flow and assets of a company, the percentage difference is the Margin of Safety.  This is the discounted price at which you are buying a share in the company. Most value investors believe that the higher the margin of safety, the better.  In reality, a margin of safety between 30% and 50% is reasonable.

The Margin of Safety is the percentage difference between a company’s Fair Value per share and its actual stock price. If a company has profits and assets that outweigh a company’s stock market valuation, this represents a Margin of Safety for the investor. The higher the margin of safety, the better.

Margin of safety is only an estimate of a stock’s risk and profit potential. Most value investors believe that the higher the margin of safety, the better.  And, the larger the margin of safety, the more irrational the market has become. 

One of the keys to getting a great margin of safety is to understand that price and value is not the same thing. Price is what you pay for something, but the value is what you get.

The stock market rises about four out of every five years or about 80% of the time, according to Nick Murray. Said another way, the market only falls 20% of the time. You can fear that 20% or cheer for it.

No one ever got wealthy paying full price or top dollar for financial assets, according to Buffett. Most successful investors got that way buying assets that were distressed, out of favor, and therefore on sale. Unfortunately, few people see it that way. You need to take advantage of the sale during market selloffs and corrections when it occurs. Your money literally goes further because you can buy more share at lower prices that lead to market-beating returns later on.

If you want to make good long-term investment returns, you need to minimize your risk by purchasing companies selling at a significant discount to their intrinsic value due to market volatility. 

References:

  1. https://novelinvestor.com/10-lessons-learned-nick-murray/
  2. https://www.ruleoneinvesting.com/blog/how-to-invest/how-to-invest-margin-of-safety-the-growth-rate/
  3. https://www.liberatedstocktrader.com/margin-of-safety/

Nearly 22 Million Americans are Millionaires

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There are nearly 22 million individuals in the U.S. with financial and real assets to fit the definition of being a millionaire, according to a 2021 Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report. Overall in 2020, total global wealth grew by 7.4% and wealth per adult rose by 6% to reach another record high of USD 79,952, according to the report.

Net worth, or “wealth,” is defined as the value of financial assets plus real assets (principally housing) owned by households, minus their debts.

The core reasons for asset price increases which have led to major gains in household wealth are a result of significant monetary and fiscal intervention by governments and central banks, like the U.S. Federal Reserve. Many governments and central banks in more advanced economies have taken pre-emptive action to prevent an economic recession in two primary ways: first, by organizing massive income transfer programs to support the individuals and businesses most adversely affected by the pandemic, and second, by lowering interest rates – often to levels close to zero – and making it clear that interest rates will stay low for some time.

There is little doubt that these interventions have been highly successful in meeting their immediate objectives of countering the economic impact of the pandemic. However, they have come at a cost. Public debt relative to GDP has risen in the U.S. and throughout the world by 20 percentage points or more, according to a 2021 Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report.

In essence, there has been a huge transfer from the government coffers to household net worth, which is one of the reasons why household wealth has been so resilient. In one respect, these transfers generously compensated households.

Generous payments have meant that disposable household income has been relatively stable and has even risen. In combination with restricted consumption opportunities, this has led to a surge in household saving, which has inflated household financial assets and caused household debts to be lower than they would be otherwise. This increase in savings was an important source of household wealth growth last year.

The lowering of interest rates by central banks has probably had the greatest impact on the growth in household wealth. It is a major reason why share prices and house prices have flourished, and these translate directly into our valuations of household wealth.

However, there are inflation implications in the long term from lowering the interest rates and also increased equity market volatility linked to expected future rises in interest rates. However, these were deemed relatively unimportant at the time compared to the more immediate economic challenges caused by the pandemic.

Household wealth appears to have simply continued to grow, paying little or no attention to the economic turmoil that should have hampered progress. Effectively, financial assets accounted for most of the gain in total household wealth accumulation.

The wealth of those with a higher share of equities among their assets, e.g. wealthier households in general. And, home owners in most markets, on the other hand, have seen capital gains due to rising house prices.

Wealth is a key component of the economic system. It is used as a store of resources for future consumption, particularly during retirement. Wealth also enhances opportunities when used either directly or as collateral for loans. But, most of all, wealth is valued for its capacity to reduce vulnerability to shocks such as unemployment, ill health, natural disasters or indeed a pandemic.

The contrast between those who have access to an emergency buffer and those who do not is evident at the best of times. Household wealth has played a crucial role in determining the resilience of both nations and individuals

Roughly 1% of adults in the world are USD millionaires.

Global household wealth may well have fallen. But aggressive governments and central banks to intervene help mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic. These have led to rapid share price and house price rises that have benefited those in the upper wealth echelons. In contrast, those in the lower wealth bands have tended to stand still, or, in many cases, regressed. The net result has been a marked rise in inequality

In many countries, the overall level of wealth remains below levels recorded before 2016. Some of the underlying factors may self-correct over time. For example, interest rates will begin to rise again at some point, and this will dampen asset prices.

References:

  1. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/heres-how-22-million-americans-became-millionaires.html
  2. https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/assets/corporate/docs/about-us/research/publications/global-wealth-report-2021-en.pdf
  3. https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us/en/reports-research/global-wealth-report.html

Inflation: The Elephant in the Room

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November’s CPI report showed consumer prices rising at rates last seen four decades ago.

Inflation is the biggest risk facing the equity market and is likely to end the record long bull-market. Inflation has a long history of eroding the value of financial assets and brings with it higher interest rates as central bankers try to tamp it down.

The annual inflation rate accelerated significantly in 2021, from about 0.5% at the start of the year to over 3% by September. This was driven by increased demand as the economy reopened and by a sharp rise in energy prices, among other factors.

In October, inflation measured by the consumer price index was up 6.2% from a year earlier, the highest annual rate since November 1990. It marked the sixth straight month above 5%. Kiplinger expects inflation to hit 6.6% by year-end 2021 before falling back to 2.8% by the end of 2022 – above the 2% average rate of the past decade.

“Inflation is in the air, and it risks becoming a market issue, an economic issue and a political issue,” says Katie Nixon, chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management.

As we enter 2022, inflation is expected to remain a risk amid higher food and gas prices, rising pressures from non-energy industrial sectors such as steel and chemicals, higher food and consumer goods prices, and increases in the energy prices.

Economists expect headline CPI to peak between 4.5% and 5% in the first half of 2022 and approach 2.5% year over year by the end of 2022.

References;

  1. https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/stocks-to-buy/603814/where-to-invest-in-2022
  2. https://investor.vanguard.com/investor-resources-education/article/simple-strategies-for-reducing-inflation-risk

Investors Need to be Patient and Rational

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“It’s a textbook example of why panic is not a[n investment] strategy, unless you’re deliberately trying to lose money.” Jim Cramer, CNBC Mad Money Host

CNBC Mad Money Host Jim Cramer made his comments after the stock market indexes moved higher after a previous major market downturn due to COVID-19 Omicron variant concerns and fear. Wall Street experienced a strong melt-up session led by the technology heavy Nasdaq Index’s 3% jump.

Markets had sold off sharply on November 26, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all losing more than 2% in market cap value as investors knee-jerked reacted to the discovery of the Omicron variant.

“I want you to use it as a reminder that, most of the time, it pays to wait for cooler heads to prevail rather than freaking out in a situation where everyone else is freaking out and lost their heads without complete information,” Cramer said.

“Look, it would’ve been great if you bought stocks something near the lows—that’s what I urged you to do, actually, even if you had to hold your nose because we were simply too oversold. I was relying on technicals,” Cramer said. “But the cardinal sin here was selling stocks out of fear, rather than sitting tight out of rationality.”

The obvious takeaway for investors is that fear and panic are not sound investment strategies, “…unless you’re deliberately trying to lose money.” Never make permanent investment decisions based on temporary market circumstances.

References:

  1. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/07/cramer-stocks-recent-rally-shows-need-for-investor-patience-not-fear-.html

Own Your Net Worth and Cash Flow

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8 out of 10 women will be solely responsible for their financial well-being. Some women will be ready. Many won’t. UBS Wealth Management Report

As women’s life expectancies increase and the rate of divorce for individuals over age 50 continues to climb, more women will find themselves solely responsible for their own current and long term financial well-being.

UBS Wealth Management embarked on research–Own Your Worth–to explore women’s thoughts and feelings, the challenges they faced, lessons they learned and advice they would impart to other women.

With the wisdom of hindsight, nearly 60% of widows and divorcees regrettably wish they had been more involved in long-term financial decisions while they were married, according to UBS’ findings. A full 98% of them urge other women to become more involved early on.

Unfortunately, too many women ignore the advice of widows and divorcees. In direct contrast to the advice, many married women are taking a lesser role in managing the household finances. In a counterintuitive twist, Millennials are the most willing to leave investing and financial planning decisions to their husbands.

Fifty-six percent of married women still leave investment decisions to their husbands, according to UBS. Surprisingly, 61% of Millennial women do so, more than any other generation. What’s more, most women are quite content with their backseat role when it comes to investing and financial planning.

UBS’ research reveals many reasons for women’s abdication, from historical and social precedents to family, gender roles and confidence levels.

So. why do women minimize their role in major financial decisions? According to USB’ research, the reasons vary:

  • Gender roles run deep – Gender roles are ingrained from early in life and often prove hard to shake. In many cases, married couples are simply imitating the gender roles they witnessed growing up.
  • Men are still the breadwinners – Within families, 70% of men are the main breadwinners, in part because of the gender pay gap and the career breaks women take to raise children.
  • Time constraints are challenging – Whether married or not, women have many demands on their time. They take on the majority of household duties, including childcare and chores, as well as paying bills and tracking spending.
  • Competence vs. confidence – Together, history and society have conspired to affect women’s financial confidence. Both women and men think men know more about investing, and women are less confident than men in making major financial decisions. Women consistently underestimate their own abilities while overestimating what is required to be financially involved.

Yet, most study respondents participated in some financial decisions while married, from handling cash flow and bills to saving and investing. Regardless of their level of engagement, however, most agree it wasn’t enough. The research shows:

  • 59% of widows and divorcees wish they had been more involved in long-term financial decisions
  • 74% don’t consider themselves very knowledgeable about investing
  • 64% of widows blame themselves for not being more financially involved (53% of divorcees)
  • 56% of widows and divorcees discover financial surprises
  • 53% would have done fewer household chores to find more time for finances
  • 79% of women who remarry take a more active role

USB recommends three actions to take today

The advice from women who have been there is clear: The time to become involved in your family’s present and future financial well-being is today, not when some unforeseen events happen in the future.

Women are encouraged to get involved in their financial well-being as a form of self care, much in the same way you would take care of your health by:

  1. Owning your worth – Know where you stand and what you want for the future. Take the time to add up your assets and liabilities, like loans, credit and other debts, and ask for full transparency from your partner.
  2. Finding your voice – Start the conversation with your partner. Talking about money is considered taboo to some couples, particularly before they are married. But if you found yourself alone tomorrow, do you know what you’d do to make sure you’re financially secure? There is a tremendous benefit to having open communication about money with a trusted confidante.
  3. Setting an example – Model financial partnership for your family and loved ones. According to our survey, women are repeating the gender roles they saw growing up. As you begin taking a more active role in your finances, you can set an example of financial partnership for the younger generation.

Though women are aware of their increasing longevity and the financial needs associated with it, most tend to focus their efforts on short-term financial responsibilities such as managing the household’s day-to-day expenses and paying the bills.

In contrast, taking charge of long-term financial decisions, such as investing, financial planning and insurance, can have far more impact on their future than balancing a checkbook.

By sharing decisions jointly, both women and men can face the future with optimism—and set an example of financial partnership for generations to come.

Almost 60% of women do not engage in the most important aspects of their financial well-being: investing, insurance, retirement and other long-term planning. USB Wealth Management Report

References:

  1. https://www.ubs.com/content/dam/WealthManagementAmericas/documents/2018-37666-UBS-Own-Your-Worth-report-R32.pdf
  2. https://www.ubs.com/us/en/investor-watch/own-your-worth/_jcr_content/mainpar/toplevelgrid_1797264592/col2/teaser/linklist/link_2127544961.2019551086.file/PS9jb250ZW50L2RhbS9XZWFsdGhNYW5hZ2VtZW50QW1lcmljYXMvZG9jdW1lbnRzL293bi15b3VyLXdvcnRoLXJlcG9ydC5wZGY=/own-your-worth-report.pdf

Growing Your Money

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When investing your money in the stock market, doing your research and investing in what you know are crucial elements of successful investing. You don’t have to be a financial expert to start buying stocks, but the more you know going in, the more likely your investing journey will be successful.

It’s critical to understand that stocks represent legal ownership in a company; you become a part-owner of the company when you purchase shares.

People ultimately invest in stocks with one end-goal in mind: to grow their money and build wealth.

But it’s important to note that growing your money and building wealth are not guaranteed. Investing in individual stocks carries much more risk than buying bonds or putting your money in index funds.

As you begin to research stocks, first know how much risk you can take, or your risk tolerance, and your time horizon.

Financial experts typically recommend that you only invest money that you can afford to lose and, since investment returns are typically maximized over the long term, only invest money that you won’t need in the short term (less than three to five years).

Stock’s Value vs. Price

Buying stocks equates to owning companies which lets you be a part of something that’s normally very exclusive. It allows you to invest in pieces of well-known companies, such as Amazon, Google or Apple.

A company’s stock price has nothing to do with its value, because the share price means nothing on its own.

The price of a stock will go down when there are more sellers than buyers. The price will go up when there are more buyers than sellers.

A company’s performance doesn’t directly influence its stock price. Investors’ reactions to the performance decide how a stock price fluctuates.

The relationship of price-to-earnings and return on equity is what determines if a stock is overvalued or undervalued. Essentially, You should make no assumptions based on price alone.

Knowing when to sell is just as important as buying stocks. Most retail investors buy when the stock market is rising and sell when it’s falling, but smart investors follow a strategy based on their financial plan and requirements.

Benjamin Graham is known as the father of value investing, and he’s preached that the real money in investing will have to be made not by buying and selling, but from owning and holding securities, receiving interest and dividends, and benefiting from the stock’s long-term increase in intrinsic value through compounding.

Learning how to invest in stocks might take time, but you’ll be on your way to growing your money and building your wealth when you do so. But, keep your risk tolerance, time horizon and financial goals in mind,

References:

  1. https://www.thebalance.com/the-complete-beginner-s-guide-to-investing-in-stock-358114

Sequence of Returns Risk in Retirement

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A stock market pullback can pose a risk early in retirement.

Retirees face many risks when investing for retirement. Markets crash, inflation can eat into your returns, you might even worry about outliving your savings. And, there’s another big retirement risk: Sequence of returns risk.

Down markets can pose significant “sequence of returns” risk in the early years of retirement. Sequence risk is the danger that the timing of withdrawals from a retirement account will have a negative impact on the overall rate of return available to the investor, according to Investopedia.

A “sequence of returns” risk is basically about how the order, or sequence, of stock returns over time — combined with your portfolio withdrawals — can impact your balance down the road.

Once you start withdrawing income, you’re affected by the change in the sequence in which the returns occurred. During your retirement years, if a high proportion of negative returns occur in the beginning years of your retirement, it will have a lasting negative effect and reduce the amount of income you can withdraw over your lifetime.

Timing is everything. Sequence risk is the danger that the timing of withdrawals from a retirement account will damage the investor’s overall return. Account withdrawals during a bear market are more costly than the same withdrawals in a bull market.

“If there’s a big loss in the market and you’re taking withdrawals, you could be taking more from your portfolio than what it can make up for,” said certified financial planner Avani Ramnani, managing director at Francis Financial in New York. “If that happens early in retirement … the recovery may be very weak and put you in danger of not recovering at all or being lower than where you would have been and therefore jeopardizing your retirement lifestyle.”

One of the basic rules of investing is that a long-term strategy is self-correcting. And, for long-term investors — those whose retirement is many years or decades away — such market drops matter less because there’s time for their portfolios to recover from this risk before they need to start relying on that money for cash flow in retirement.

Retirement is a long game.

Since running out of money in retirement is the primary concern for most retirees, fortunately, there are options for mitigating the risk:

  • Plan to spend more conservatively since the less you spend consistently, the less you have to withdraw overall.
  • Withdraw and spend less when your portfolio performance is suffering. 
  • Reduce the risk in your portfolio by creating a low stock allocation early in retirement but increase it over time, or use bonds for short-term expenses and stocks for long-term ones.
  • Set aside assets outside your investment portfolio that can support your spending needs when stocks are underperforming.

You may simply be able to meet your goals without taking on the risk that comes with stocks.

Key Takeaways

Sequence of return risk is basically the risk that market declines in the early years of retirement, paired with ongoing withdrawals, could significantly reduce the longevity of your portfolio. Thus, timing is everything, and in retirement early market declines, particularly if they are paired with rising inflation, can have a huge effect on how long a nest egg can sustain you in retirement.

The recommended way to mitigate sequence of returns risk when you can’t predict future market performance or future rates of inflation is by managing spending and/or keeping a portion of your portfolio in liquid assets, such as cash or bonds, to ride out the market downturn.

When market returns are high and inflation is low, retirees can distribute more from their portfolios, according to Forbes Advisor Staff Editors Rob Berger and Benjamin Curry. When market returns are negative and inflation is higher than expected, retirees reduce the amount of their annual distributions.

Remember, no one can forecast market performance or economic inflation. Yet, by managing your spending, you can adjust annual withdrawal amounts to reflect inflation and market returns.

References:

  1. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sequence-risk.asp
  2. https://www.thebalance.com/how-sequence-risk-affects-your-retirement-money-2388672
  3. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/21/stock-market-pullback-is-a-big-risk-early-in-retirement-what-to-know.html
  4. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/retirement/sequence-of-returns-risk/