Coronavirus cases are surging again across the U.S.

New coronavirus cases and hospitalizations continue to increase in the U.S., which could be an indication of a ‘fall surge’ of respiratory virus infections predicted by public-health officials.

For multiple times since October began, newly reported cases nationally ticked above 50,000, fueled by infectious outbreaks in several regions of the country.

The seven-day moving average of new U.S. infections, which smooths out day-to-day fluctuations, was above 50K, the highest since mid-August. The 14-day average stood at 47K. When the seven-day average is higher than the 14-day average, as it has been since early October , it suggests cases are rising.

While circumstances differ locally, many regions across the U.S. have a seven-day average of new cases greater than their 14-day average, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Johns Hopkins figures.

Hospitalizations also have increased across the U.S. in recent weeks, though deaths haven’t surged at a similar pace. Deaths often lag behind new cases and hospitalizations, given the duration of the disease. The seven-day average of daily deaths attributed to Covid-19 has been hovering around 700 for about three weeks, down from around 1,000 two months ago.

Thanks to improved detection, most people infected in the summer had mild or no symptoms. But as cases soar, hospitalizations and deaths are also expected to rise.

U.S. has more fatalities than any other country in the world

The U.S. has more fatalities than any other country in the world—more than 217,600 since the pandemic began. But it doesn’t have the highest percentage of cases that are fatal. About 2.7% of reported cases in the U.S. have been fatal, according to data from Johns Hopkins. That figure has declined in recent months as treatments have improved and testing has expanded, allowing more mild and asymptomatic cases to be detected.

“I long for the day when each and every day we see fewer cases than the day before,” said David Aronoff, director of the Division of Infectious Diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville, Tenn. “But if you were to ask me when that day would be, I don’t honestly know.”

Daily case-count tallies are likely to increase or remain at high levels without concerted use of such strategies as enhanced testing, widespread mask-wearing and clear, consistent messaging, epidemiologists and public-health researchers said.

Since summer, younger people make up a growing share of new U.S. infections.

Despite the rising numbers of infections, many have grown tired of restrictions on their social life and say they would rather risk catching the virus than stop seeing family and friends.

Additionally, mixed and inconsistent messaging from federal and local officials over preventive measures has sowed confusion and complacency. Some local governments have eased restrictions on businesses and requirements to wear masks. Meanwhile, college students returned to campuses, leading to some spreading of the virus, and the onset of cooler weather has led many Americans indoors, where the virus is more transmittable, public-health researchers said.

References:

1. https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-covid-19-is-spreading-again-fatigue-colder-weather-eased-restrictions-11602759601
2. https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19s-global-divide-as-west-reels-asia-keeps-virus-at-bay-11603186202