Inflationary Pressures are a Real and Present Concern

“Inflation jumped 5 percent in the past year, the fastest pace in 13 years.”

Inflation in the US has jumped to the highest rate since 2008. For the past decade, inflation has averaged under 2 percent a year. But suddenly, inflation is rising much faster than anticipated and planned by the Federal Reserve. For instance, inflation rose 5 percent between May 2020 and May 2021, the Labor Department reported.

Inflation results when demand exceeds supply in an economy. When the economy grows faster than its ability to provide goods and services demanded by consumers, prices rise. When the economy grows more slowly than its potential growth rate, prices tend to fall. Factors that affect an economy’s growth rate include the supply of labor and the productivity of those workers.

Inflation is imply defined as the price of a good or service increasing over time. Conversely, you can also define inflation by looking at the value of the dollars purchasing those goods and services. Said another way, while you might agreed that the price of good and services have increased, you can also state the dollars you spend now purchase less quantity of goods and services … and by extension, the dollars themselves are clearly worth less.

Money supply and budget deficits

We’ve learned that inflation is, “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” according to economist Milton Friedman. Money supply growth is a requirement, but in and of itself, it’s not enough to cause inflation. The money needs to find its way into the economy and turnover rapidly to generate inflation. (This is referred to as the velocity of money or ratio of M2 money supply to gross domestic product, or GDP.) In recent years, the velocity of money has fallen sharply.

Rising budget deficits are not necessarily linked to inflation, either, but can contribute to an overheating economy. It all depends on whether it stimulates demand to exceed supply. From a long-term perspective, there has been little correlation in recent years between the level of debt in the economy and inflation.

The causes of present inflation and the primary explanations are:

Pent-up demand following the COVID-19 shutdown.
Base effects (essentially older low values rolling off).
A massive increase in the supply of dollars.

Rising Prices

“Inflation is taxation without legislation.” – Milton Friedman.

With commodity prices soaring, money supply growth exploding, and government spending surging, there is a palpable fear of a return to 1970s-style inflation. I get it. I remember those times.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile items such as food and energy, leaped to the highest level since 1992. It rose 3.8% year-on-year, up from 3% in April.
Other official data showed that the number of initial claims for jobless benefits fell to its lowest since mid-March 2020, when the first wave of Covid-19 hit.

The cost of used cars and trucks climbed 7.3% in May from April, accounting for a third of the increase in inflation. Prices were 29.7% higher than a year earlier. They have risen in recent months because of a global semiconductor shortage that has held back car production, pushing people to enter the market for second-hand vehicles instead.

Energy prices rose, by 28.5% year-on-year, including a 56% jump in gasoline prices compared with May 2020, when demand slumped due to the pandemic. And, gasoline prices are destined to go higher with the cancelation of the cross-border permit for the Keystone XL pipeline and suspension of the program for oil and gas leasing on federal lands and waters.

The cost of flights, household furnishings, new cars, rental cars and clothing rose during May.

Inflation jumped 5 percent in the past year, the fastest pace in 13 years. Few are panicking yet, but there’s a big debate about how long prices will stay high. https://t.co/yefQt0zQWH

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) June 10, 2021

What should investors do?

In response to inflation, investors should:

Must become awareness of inflation. Inflation is likely to increase throughout the year (and perhaps further), and bonds are likely to at least be less of a stalwart than they have over the past 40 years. It is important to realize that is possible and you should all be prepared for lower near-term performance in fixed income markets.
Diversification is key. Equities, for example, have historically been a reasonable asset during certain inflationary periods as companies can often pass through increased costs.
Explore other forms of inflation protection, as well as a broader diversification of fixed income instruments.

Inflation is clearly present for U.S. consumers in the grocery stores, at gas stations and in vehicle sales. Fears over rising prices has investors fearing that pent-up demand and supply chain bottlenecks would create inflationary pressures, and force the Federal Reserve to “tamper” their monetary stimulus program and dampen demand by increasing interest rates.

References:

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