“Finding success as a long-term investor requires navigating a psychological minefield.”. Ben Carson, Director of Institutional Asset Management at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
Everyone would agree that the stock market has been highly volatile since the turn of the 21st century, experiencing crashes of 50%, 57% and 34% since 2000. It’s possible this level of heightened volatility is going to remain for the foreseeable future with an assist from the internet, rising sovereign debt and inflation.
Investing for the long-term implies that you set aside money today so you can have more money in the future. But getting to whatever the “long-term” means to you requires seeing the present value of your holdings fall, sometimes in soul-crushing fashion.
In the coming 40-50 years, you should expect to experience at least 10 or more bear markets, including 5 or 6 that constitute a market crash in stocks. There will also probably be at least 7-8 recessions in that time as well, maybe more.
However, you can never be sure of anything when it comes to the equity markets or the U.S. economy, but let’s use history as a rough guide on this. Over the 50 years from 1970-2019, there were 7 recessions, 10 bear markets and 4 legitimate market crashes with losses in excess of 30% for the U.S. stock market. Over the previous 50 years from 1920-1969, there were 11 recessions, 15 bear markets, and 8 legitimate market crashes with losses in excess of 30% for the U.S. stock market.
Bear markets, brutal market crashes and recessions are a fact of life as an investor. They are a common and expected feature of the financial system.
If you’re investing in the stock market that means you should plan on losing at least 10% of your money once every 1-2 years, on average. You should also plan on losing 20% of your capital once every 3 or 4 years, 30% once every 6 or 7 years and 40% or worse every 10-12 years.
These time frames aren’t set in stone since actual stock market returns are anything but average but you get the point. If your money is invested in the stock market for the long-term, expect it to grow over time but also evaporate without warning on occasion.
The same applies to pretty much any risk asset.
References:
- https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/05/sometimes-you-just-have-to-eat-your-losses-in-the-markets/
- https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/02/a-short-history-of-u-s-stock-market-corrections-bear-markets/