Market Risk, Volatility, Growth

Investors are four long month away from the market volatility and meltdown experienced by investors in late December 2018. During the market upheaval, prognosticators were predicting the death of the bull market, the end of global economic growth and the advent of recession in the U.S. and globally.

In short, the bears were out of their hiding place to proclaim that the financial sky was falling and that public companies would experience an earnings recession that would drive U.S. equity markets down more than ten percent from their September 2018 highs.

Granted, the U.S. equity markets did experience a significant correction that spooked even the most seasoned investors in December, the Chinese and European Union economies were were showing signs stagnation, and calendar year fourth quarter U.S. GDP grew 2.2 percent annualized. 

Today, the financial horizon reveals a much more positive disposition. U.S. public corporations first quarter 2019 earnings are beating analyst expectations, Chinese economy has appeared to bottom and is showing signs of recovery, and Europe has apparently stabilized despite negative central bank interest rates. And, on top of the many positive indicators, the U.S. Federal Reserve has adopted an accommodating policy of pausing federal fund interest rates hikes and tightening the monetary supply.

My late April 2019, the U.S. equity markets (S&P 500 and Nasdaq) have achieved new all time closing highs and the Dow Jones is within striking distance of its all time high.. Fear of missing out of the market steady rise is bringing those investor that have been sitting on the sidelines back into the market.

Believing the equity markets will continue its steady rise has investors chasing hot technology stocks and driving up the prices of recent IPO’s. Recently, Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, was reported as stating that he believes the U.S. economy is okay citing strong corporate balance sheets, positive consumer confidence and rising income.

With all the positive news economic and equity market news, investors should exercise caution and always consider equity risk before jumping back into the revved up markets because of the fear of missing out and chasing hot technology stocks. This course of action rarely bodes well for impatient and exuberant investors. 

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