Inflation refers to an aggregate increase in prices, commonly measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The federal government has pumped trillions of dollars into the economy through deficit spending and stimulus measures since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Meanwhile, the central bank of the United States, the Federal Reserve, has dropped interest rates to near zero and has committed to keeping them there through 2023.

The Federal Reserve’s mandates are to manage the money supply and set the federal funds interest rate in an attempt to keep inflation within a reasonable limit. This reasonable level of inflation is maintained because it encourages people to spend now, thereby promoting economic growth, rather than saving, as a dollar today is worth more than the same dollar tomorrow on average.

A constant level of inflation helps maintain price stability and is thought to maximize employment and economic well-being. Investors expect returns greater than this “reasonable,” average level of inflation, and workers expect wage increases to keep pace with the increasing cost of living.

The Consumer Price Index tracks prices for a broad range of products such as gasoline, healthcare, and groceries. The CPI rose 6.2% in October from the same month in 2020, the biggest spike since December 1990, according to the Labor Department.

High and variable inflation is considered bad for both investors and the wider U.S. economy because it can eat away at the value of financial assets denominated in the inflated currency, such as cash and bonds, particularly longer term bonds with more interest rate risk.

The prospect of variable or high inflation introduces uncertainty to both the economy and the stock market, which doesn’t really benefit anyone. This uncertainty or variable inflation distorts asset pricing and wages at different times. Prices also tend to rise faster and earlier than wages, potentially contributing to economic contraction and possible recession.

“Cash is not a safe investment, is not a safe place because it will be taxed by inflation.” Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates

In an inflationary environment, “cash is trash” since inflation operates like a tax which causes saved dollars lose value over time. High inflation rates decrease the purchasing power of money and it discourages people from holding cash assets and saving. “Cash is not a safe investment, is not a safe place because it will be taxed by inflation,” Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio, the founder of the world’s biggest hedge fund said on CNBC Squawk Box.

Here are several suggestions for investors to consider to counter the risk and derisive impact of inflation on assets and the economy.

• Consider buying equity stocks like bank stocks or consumer goods companies that will benefit from higher inflation or higher interest rates. Banking, consumer staples, energy, utility, and healthcare equities are likely to perform well. Banks would come out ahead if the Federal Reserve eventually raises interest rates to combat inflation, and banks’ spreads between loans and deposits widen. Also, look for companies that benefit from rising labor costs and be very attentive to how much you pay for (e.g., the intrinsic value) of risk assets.
• Consider buying TIPS, or Treasury inflation-protected securities, which are a useful way to protect your investment in government bonds. These U.S. government bonds are indexed to inflation, so if inflation moves up, the effective interest rate paid on TIPS will too. TIPS bonds pay interest every six months, and they’re issued in maturities of 5, 10 and 30 years. Because they’re backed by the U.S. federal government, they’re considered among the safest investments in the world.
• Avoid fixed income assets such as corporate and government non-TIP bonds. If rates rise sharply, their principal value will take a major hit. If rates climb, then certificates of deposit, fixed annuities, bonds, and bond funds purchased today will look less attractive in the future. Similarly, buying a lifetime income annuity is less enticing in an inflationary environment. The monthly check you get for the rest of your life will lose value more quickly with high inflation.
• Keep the right sort of debt. Don’t pay off that home mortgage or real estate investment mortgages early, you’re better off paying it off over time with watered-down dollars. Homeowners carrying fixed mortgages with low interest rates are in a great position. It’s highly recommended to refinance your mortgage to lock in low rates. If inflation takes off, homes prices are likely to climb and your fixed monthly payment may appear like a real bargain in a few years.
• Consider commodities or gold. Investing in oil, natural gas, wheat and corn can be good hedges against inflation. Gold has traditionally been a safe-haven asset for investors when inflation revs up or interest rates are very low. Gold tends to fare well when real interest rates – that is, the reported rate of interest minus the inflation rate – go into negative territory. Investors often view gold as a store of value during tough economic times.
• Make essential purchases and charitable giving. If consumers expect to spend money on home goods, renovations, car repairs, or other products and services, they might be better off doing so now, before prices climb even higher.
• Expect rising health costs. Health costs have risen faster than inflation for years. The pandemic, which is driving some health professionals out of the field, could accelerate that trend.

Keep in mind that inflation is always happening within the economy, but hopefully at a relatively low and steady rate, and kept under control by the Federal Reserve. Investors with a long time horizon, a high tolerance for risk, and a high allocation to stocks shouldn’t be worried about short-term inflation fears.

However, it’s perfectly suitable and even desirable for retirees, risk-averse investors, and those with a short time horizon to have some allocation to inflation-protected assets like TIPS, REITs and bank stocks.

Rising inflation is a big concern for investors, but it remains to be seen whether current high levels of inflation will persist or end up being due to “transitory” factors. Investors will likely come out ahead using assets like equity stocks, REITs, short-term nominal bonds, and TIPS to hedge against inflation.

References:

1. https://www.barrons.com/articles/protect-finances-from-inflation-51637782342
2. https://www.optimizedportfolio.com/inflation/
3. https://www.bankrate.com/investing/inflation-hedges-to-protect-against-rising-prices/