A stock market pullback can pose a risk early in retirement.
Retirees face many risks when investing for retirement. Markets crash, inflation can eat into your returns, you might even worry about outliving your savings. And, there’s another big retirement risk: Sequence of returns risk.
Down markets can pose significant “sequence of returns” risk in the early years of retirement. Sequence risk is the danger that the timing of withdrawals from a retirement account will have a negative impact on the overall rate of return available to the investor, according to Investopedia.
A “sequence of returns” risk is basically about how the order, or sequence, of stock returns over time — combined with your portfolio withdrawals — can impact your balance down the road.
Once you start withdrawing income, you’re affected by the change in the sequence in which the returns occurred. During your retirement years, if a high proportion of negative returns occur in the beginning years of your retirement, it will have a lasting negative effect and reduce the amount of income you can withdraw over your lifetime.
Timing is everything. Sequence risk is the danger that the timing of withdrawals from a retirement account will damage the investor’s overall return. Account withdrawals during a bear market are more costly than the same withdrawals in a bull market.
“If there’s a big loss in the market and you’re taking withdrawals, you could be taking more from your portfolio than what it can make up for,” said certified financial planner Avani Ramnani, managing director at Francis Financial in New York. “If that happens early in retirement … the recovery may be very weak and put you in danger of not recovering at all or being lower than where you would have been and therefore jeopardizing your retirement lifestyle.”
One of the basic rules of investing is that a long-term strategy is self-correcting. And, for long-term investors — those whose retirement is many years or decades away — such market drops matter less because there’s time for their portfolios to recover from this risk before they need to start relying on that money for cash flow in retirement.
Retirement is a long game.
Since running out of money in retirement is the primary concern for most retirees, fortunately, there are options for mitigating the risk:
- Plan to spend more conservatively since the less you spend consistently, the less you have to withdraw overall.
- Withdraw and spend less when your portfolio performance is suffering.
- Reduce the risk in your portfolio by creating a low stock allocation early in retirement but increase it over time, or use bonds for short-term expenses and stocks for long-term ones.
- Set aside assets outside your investment portfolio that can support your spending needs when stocks are underperforming.
You may simply be able to meet your goals without taking on the risk that comes with stocks.
Key Takeaways
Sequence of return risk is basically the risk that market declines in the early years of retirement, paired with ongoing withdrawals, could significantly reduce the longevity of your portfolio. Thus, timing is everything, and in retirement early market declines, particularly if they are paired with rising inflation, can have a huge effect on how long a nest egg can sustain you in retirement.
The recommended way to mitigate sequence of returns risk when you can’t predict future market performance or future rates of inflation is by managing spending and/or keeping a portion of your portfolio in liquid assets, such as cash or bonds, to ride out the market downturn.
When market returns are high and inflation is low, retirees can distribute more from their portfolios, according to Forbes Advisor Staff Editors Rob Berger and Benjamin Curry. When market returns are negative and inflation is higher than expected, retirees reduce the amount of their annual distributions.
Remember, no one can forecast market performance or economic inflation. Yet, by managing your spending, you can adjust annual withdrawal amounts to reflect inflation and market returns.
References:
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sequence-risk.asp
- https://www.thebalance.com/how-sequence-risk-affects-your-retirement-money-2388672
- https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/21/stock-market-pullback-is-a-big-risk-early-in-retirement-what-to-know.html
- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/retirement/sequence-of-returns-risk/