“Time in the markets, not timing the markets.”

A common mantra in investing circles is ‘it’s about time in the markets, not timing the markets’. In other words, the best way to make money is to stay invested for the long term, rather than worrying about short term volatility or whether now is the best time to invest.

Value investing guru Benjamin Graham once quipped that “in the short term the stock market is a voting machine” that measures the popularity of companies and the sentiment of investors, whereas in “the long term it is a weighing machine” that measures each company’s fundamentals and intrinsic value.

Time in the market works because it takes this ‘guess the market bottom’ element out of the equation. By focusing on the long term, it’s easier to ignore the volatility of markets. Sure, it’s still scary watching the value of your share portfolio fall from time to time.

Time in the market is really about harnessing the power of compound interest. Compounding is the best thing about investing. Albert Einstein once said “Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe. Compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it, he who doesn’t, pays it.”

With compounding, your money accumulates a lot faster because the interest is calculated in regular intervals and you earn interest on top of interest. Compounding is usually what makes investors like billionaire investor Warren Buffett wealthy. If you are able to achieve a consistently high annual rate of return over the long term, building wealth is almost inevitable. And Buffett has never tried to time a market in his life.

But pushing and pulling your money in and out of the market stymies the compounding process. And all it takes is one massive mistime to end up back at square one given the fact that market can never be timed. Investor Peter Lynch said it best: “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.”

Compounding plays a pivotal role in growing your wealth. When using compounding, the results will be small at the start but over time, your wealth will accumulate fast. Warren Buffet is known to make the majority of his wealth later in his adult life and this is due to the compounding interest effect on his assets and invested capital.

Missing the best days

Timing the markets involves trying to second-guess the ups and downs, with the hope that you will buy when prices are low and sell when they are high. This can be lucrative if you get it right consistently, but this is very difficult to do and getting it wrong means locking in losses and missing out on gains.

Not only is timing the market difficult to get right, it also poses the risk of missing the ‘good’ days when share prices increase significantly. Historically, many of the best days for the stock markets have occurred during periods of extreme volatility.

Instead of trying to time the market, spending time in the market is more likely to give you better returns over the long term. It is best to base your investment decisions on the long-term fundamentals rather than short-term market noise and volatility.

Value of $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 in 1980

Source: Ned Davis Research, 12/31/1979-7/1/2020.

This chart uses a series of bars to show that from the end of 1979 until July 1, 2020, a $10,000 investment would have been worth $860,900 if invested the entire period. Missing just the 10 best days during that period would reduce the value by more than half, to $383,400.

Anybody who pulls money out in the early stages of a volatile period could miss these good days, as well as potentially locking in some losses. For instance, between May 2008 and February 2009 in the depths of the global financial crisis the MSCI World index dropped by -30.4%. By the end of 2009 it had bounced back +40.8%.

Currently writing an article on “buying the dip”, and it reminded me of an older one I wrote.

Time in the market almost always beats timing the market.https://t.co/5v2EXDDuGe

— Plant Money Seeds (@money_seeds) March 9, 2021

References:

1. https://www.edwardjones.com/us-en/market-news-insights/guidance-perspective/benefits-investing-stock
2. https://www.fa-mag.com/news/retirees-are-leading-precarious-financial-lives-42426.html
3. https://www.tilney.co.uk/news/it-s-about-time-in-the-markets-not-timing-the-markets
4. https://www.fool.com.au/2020/10/06/does-time-in-the-market-really-beat-timing-the-market/
5. https://www.fool.com.au/definitions/compounding/