Most economists or financial pundits concede that it is difficult to have a U.S. economic recession in the next twelve to eighteen months with the historically low (3.5%) unemployment rate and strong consumer spending. Essentially, the U.S. consumers, who represents 70% of the U.S. economy, are coming to the rescue the economy.

Eventually, those predicting and appear to be even rooting for a recession prior to the 2020 Presidential elections will be correct someday in the future. Bottom line, since the business economic cycle has not been repealed, recessions are inevitable and a normal part of the cycle.

Business hiring and historical low unemployment rate are lagging economic indicators for forecasting the strength of the economy. Today’s strong U.S. consumers due to hiring and low unemployment rate have buoyed the economy and can mask moderating and slowing economic growth.

China trade talk uncertainty and threat of additional U.S. tariffs on China and the European Union continue to weigh on the global economic growth and health.

No one…repeat no one, is able to forecast the future direction of the economy.