Tag Archives: Behavior

Mindset Matters

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“Mindset is everything because it touches, impacts, and influences quite literally every aspect of your life.”

Your mindset is the filter through which you see the world. It is comprised of your beliefs, attitudes, emotions, and perceptions that inform your thoughts, habits* and decisions. Mindset encompasses both your conscious and unconscious thoughts as well as how you view yourself. It, your mindset, determines how you spend your time, who you spend your time with, what decisions you make, and where you invest your resources (time, talent and treasure).

Your mindset is an important part of your toolkit for success. Like glasses, they can either obscure your path or bring clarity to the road ahead. Thus, taking an active approach to understanding and crafting a positive mindset is important. Most people don’t realize that they’ve been programming their mindset through their experiences and perceptions. If you constantly feed your mindset with negative perspectives, your outlook will be negative. Garbage in, is garbage out.

On the other hand, cultivating a healthy wealth mindset will help you stick to your financial goals and you find ways to increase your earning potential. And, there are two key inputs that shape your mindset: the environment (or people) you spend time with and the media (written and verbal) you consume daily.

There’s an old saying in financial circles that you’re the average of the five people you spend the most time with. If you want to be fit, hang out with friends who exercise. If you want to think big and aspire to build wealth and change the world, then you must consume inspiring positive media and hang out with people who have great purpose and big audacious goals.

Just as you are the average of the five people you spend the most time with, the same is true for your ideas and aspirations.

A wealth mindset is a set of beliefs, habits, and behaviors that separates the wealthy from the rest. A wealth mindset will guide you to make the most of the money you have. It is essential to effectively and successfully save for the future, invest for the long term, build wealth and achieve financial freedom. A wealth mindset means spending less than you earn, making wise investments in assets, and looking for ways to improve financial well-being with minimal risk.

A wealth mindset matter matters because 60 percent of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, according to Dave Ramsey. And as of 2018, 175 million Americans actively use credit cards. A majority of these credit card holders engage in impulsive spending behavior, wasting money they don’t have on items they don’t need.

“Wealth is a mindset!”, writes Shynna Key, author of “Wealth Is a Mindset”. She encourages you to “keeping it real” with your current financial position, identifying challenges, and taking responsibility for changing the way you view wealth. She opines that you must begin by examining “…what we have been taught as it relates to money and wealth. Though finances are a very private area for most to discuss, it is a crucial topic that will help us to understand the root of our financial ‘woes’ as well as the fruit of our financial ‘favor’; which is essential to our overall growth of wealth.”

“If you correct your mind, the rest of your life will fall into place.” – Lao Tzu

To accumulate wealth and achieve financial freedom, you must first be and think like the wealthy. By doing so, you will develop the habits and take the necessary actions to attract the resources to you. You must be someone first; someone who has what he or she needs in order to take the inspired action. To become a wealthy, you must be an individual who thinks and manages money like the wealthy. For example, “the average wealthy person spends 10 times more time planning their finances than the average middle-class individual”, explains Thomas J. Stanley, author of “The Millionaire Next Door”.

Money and wealth can buy freedom…financial freedom. Very few wealthy people became wealthy overnight. Building wealth is a deliberate process that requires patience and planning.

If you want to be wealthy, you’ll need to develop a wealth mindset. Start by defining your financial goals: how much money do you want to have in a year’s time? Five year’s time?

To realize your financial goals, you’ll need to develop a wealth mindset, create and follow a plan, and continue to learn and grow. And remember, the road to wealth is bumpy and filled with detours and misconceptions.

In many ways, the health of your finances, as well as your physical health, depends on your mindset and emotional well-being. Thus, it’s important to make it a priority and to take time for you. When you focus on purpose, potential, curiosity and collaboration, you will experience increased energy and well-being. Because, what you focus on…expands!

“We are what we think. All that we are arises with our thoughts. With our thoughts, we make the world.” – Unknown

References:

  1. https://wealthfit.com/articles/wealth-mindset/
  2. https://wealthconnecters.com/wealth-mindset
  3. https://www.audible.com/pd/Wealth-Is-a-Mindset-Audiobook/B07MWHKS46
  4. Draper, Taylor, “Mind Matters”, Costco Connection, May 2021, pg. 17.
  5. https://bydeze.com/why-mindset-is-everything/
  6. https://nevadapartners.org/2021/05/21/12-real-differences-between-a-wealthy-mindset-vs-a-poor-mindset/

“Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a hard battle.” – Socrates

* Habits are consistent, unconscious patterns. They constantly express our character and result in our effectiveness or ineffectiveness. Habits are deeply ingrained and we are constantly pulled in their direction.

China’s Challenges According to Jamie Dimon

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China’s Communist Party leaders believe that America is in decline. They believe this not only because their country’s sheer size will make them the largest economy on the planet by 2030 but also because they believe their long-term thinking and competent, consistent leadership have outshone America’s in so many ways, writes Jamie Dimon, CEO, JP Morgan in his 2020 annual letter to shareholders.

The Chinese see an America that is losing ground in technology, infrastructure and education – a nation torn and crippled by politics, as well as racial and income inequality – and a country unable to coordinate government policies (fiscal, monetary, industrial, regulatory) in any coherent way to accomplish national goals. Unfortunately, recently, there is a lot of truth to this, in the next 40 years, according to Dimon.

In recent years, China has been dealing with many challenges to its economic expansion, including pandemic-related curbs, an energy crunch, and an unprecedented crackdown on private enterprises. These challenges and the Communist government’s reaction led to 4% growth in China for the fourth quarter, according to JP Morgan.

Additionally, the government actions against COVID-19 have also kept domestic demand for goods and services suppressed, putting a lid on imports.

However, Dimon opines that “China will have to confront some serious socioeconomic and geopolitical issues”:

  • The Chinese lack enough food, water and energy to support their population;
  • Pollution is rampant;
  • Corruption continues to be a problem;
  • State-owned enterprises are often inefficient;
  • Corporate and government debt levels are growing rapidly;
  • Financial markets lack depth, transparency and adequate rule of law;
  • Income inequality is higher than in the rest of the world; and
  • Their working age population has been declining since 2012.
  • Capital outflows has caused the regime to tighten capital controls.
  • Lower rates make Chinese financial markets less attractive to global and domestic capital.

Additionally, China will continue to face pressure from the United States and other Western governments over human rights abuses (especially against the Uyghur population), democracy and freedom in Hong Kong, and activity in the South China Sea and Taiwan. The Uyghurs are an ethnic Muslim minority in China that have allegedly endured forced labor and other human rights violations.

Autocratic and authoritative leadership works well when you can manage top down and you are starting from a very low base. China’s recent success definitely has its leadership feeling confident.

Regardless of Chinese Communist Party’s opinions regarding its inevitable economic rise, only 100 million people of its more than 1.4 billion population in China effectively participate in the nation’s one-party political system. No other developed nation has such low participation. Growing middle classes almost always demand political power, which helps explain why autocratic leadership almost always falters in a larger, more complex economy.

Under autocratic leadership, a major risk is the allocation of economic assets (capital and people), which are, over time, used to further political interests, leading to inefficient companies and markets, favoritism and corruption.

In addition, autocratic leadership diminishes the rule of law and transparency – damaging the ability to create a well-functioning financial system (this certainly restricts the internationalizing of the RMB).

Disruption of trade is another risk China faces. The United States’ trade issues with China are substantial and real. They include:

  • Theft or forced transfer of intellectual property;
  • Lack of bilateral investment rights, transfer of ownership or control of investments;
  • Onerous non-tariff barriers;
  • Unfair subsidies or benefits for state-owned enterprises; and
  • Lack of rapid enforcement of any disagreements.

China will only comply with international trade agreements and only do what is in its own self-interest. Near term, we should expect challenge and conflict to characterize the relationship between China and the West over a range of economic, human rights and strategic issues.

There may, however, be areas where we will simply never agree. As the two largest economies in the world, China and the United States should continue to have a long-term interest in collaborating where we can on critical global issues, including climate change, global health and stability on the Korean Peninsula.

China does not have a straight road to becoming the dominant economic power. To put this in perspective, America’s GDP per person in 2019 was $65,000 and China’s was $10,000. Even if we do a rather poor job at managing our economy (growing at 2%), our GDP per person in 20 years would be $85,000. And if the Chinese do a good job managing their economy, their GDP per person in 2040 would still be under $35,000. While China is well on its way to becoming a fully developed nation, it may face more uncertainty and moments of slower growth in the future (like the rest of us) than in the past.

For the near term, if China and the United States can maintain a healthy strategic and economic relationship, it could greatly benefit both countries – as well as the rest of the world.

Another factor is the Chinese currency, the renminbi (RMB). The renminbi cannot be freely moved around the world; it can leave China only in limited amounts and can be invested only as the Chinese see fit. Thus the renminbi is a long way from replacing the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

The Chinese currency is subject to their internal politics, laws and regulations. While the Chinese have done a good job building their economy and are slowly moving toward a more transparent society and financial system, they are a long way from having a currency that is fully “convertible” like the U.S. dollar.

References:

  1. https://reports.jpmorganchase.com/investor-relations/2020/ar-ceo-letters.htm
  2. https://www.wsj.com/articles/slow-meltdown-of-china-economy-evergrande-property-market-collapse-downturn-xi-cewc-11640032283
  3. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/could-chinas-economy-collapse/ar-AAPypxS
  4. https://warontherocks.com/2021/12/could-chinas-massive-public-debt-torpedo-the-global-economy/

Commercial real estate bust.

While the U.S. economy is likely to grow 6% in 2021 and 4% in 2022, the highest rate in decades, analysts project.

China’s economy has been faltering despite it’s exceptionally strong trade surplus and it’s authoritarian government’s heavy hand on COVID-19.

Persistence and Perseverance

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“Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence.

Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent.

Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb.

Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts.

Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.

The slogan “press on” has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race.”

Calvin Coolidge

“Three simple rules in life and habits…Go, Ask, and Do:

  1. If you do not go after what you want, you’ll never have it.

  2. If you do not ask, the answer will always be no.

  3. If you do not step forward, you will always be in the same place.”

Austin Miller, VP of Talent Management at Sorenson Capital Partners

Wealth Blueprint

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If building wealth and financial freedom are your destination, the journey always starts with your financial mindset, attitude and habits. Jeff Hayden

T. Harv Eker, author of “Secrets of the Millionaire Mind”, is convinced that anyone can be build wealth and become financially free. But, he opines that what holds most people back from accumulating wealth is an internal mental script or “money blueprint” that tells them that they can’t or shouldn’t.

In his bestselling book, Eker teaches people to identify their internal money blueprint and revise them. However, many critics rightfully argue that his focus on personal psychology as the sole driver of success ignores very real economic and systemic factors such as inequality, sexism and racism which can be possible determinants of one’s income bracket and net worth.

“If your subconscious “financial blueprint” is not set for success, nothing you learn, nothing you know and nothing you do will make much of a difference.” T Harv Eker

Yet, Eker argues that you have a personal wealth blueprint already ingrained in your subconscious mind that will determine your financial life and overall success. What he means is that you can know everything about saving for the future, investing to grow your money, and accumulating wealth, but if your subconscious wealth blueprint isn’t preset to a high level of life and financial success, you will never amass a large amount of wealth or achieve financial freedom.

What people have to realize is that we are all subconsciously taught and conditioned in how to deal with money and wealth, according to Eker. Unfortunately, many of us were taught by family members and acquaintances who didn’t own a lot of assets and did not have a lot of money, so their way of thinking about wealth became your natural and automatic way to think. And since you are a creature of habit, your internal thoughts and beliefs about wealth and money will determine your external results of net worth and cash flow.

“If you want to change your results, you have to start by changing your thoughts.” T. Harv Eker

Your wealth blueprint single-handedly, according to Eker, determines your financial life, because your thoughts lead to feelings, which lead to actions, which lead to your results. Thought is the ‘Mother of all Results’. It’s about a process of manifestation, that your thoughts lead to your feelings, which lead to your actions, which lead to your results.

Thoughts → Feelings → Actions → Results

The reason you think the way you do about money is conditioning. You were taught how to think about money. You weren’t born with money thoughts and beliefs. You learned them. You were conditioned around money, success, and wealth by:

  • Verbal programming – what you’ve heard,
  • Modeling – what you’ve seen,
  • And specific incidences and experiences you’ve had.

No personal wealth mental blueprint is true or false or right or wrong, says Eker. It’s just how you’ve been programmed. Some people are savers. Others are spenders.

There are several important question to ask yourself: What is your current wealth and success blueprint, and what results is it subconsciously moving you toward? Are you set for working hard for your money or are you set to have your money work hard for you? Are you programmed for saving money or for spending money? Are you programmed for managing your money well or mismanaging it?

Bottomline, your wealth blueprint, meaning your thoughts and beliefs, will determine ultimately your financial life and net worth – and can even determine your personal life, according to Eker.

“The vast majority of people simply do not have the internal capacity to create and hold on to large amounts of money and the increased challenges that go with more money and success. That, my friends, is the primary reason they don’t have much money.” T. Harv Eker

References:

  1. https://www.selfgrowth.com/articles/what_is_your_money_blueprint.html
  2. https://www.knowledgeformen.com/podcast-t-harv-eker/
  3. https://www.tonyrobbins.com/mind-meaning/a-new-blueprint-for-happiness
  4. https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/lifestyle/weekend-interview/t-harv-eker

Life on the Edge

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“As you get older, the days go by quicker and you need to make the time count.” Mary Peachin, Octogenarian

As you age, it becomes more important to “live each day right to the limit”, states octogenarian Mary Peachin, in Costco Connection magazine, September 2021, Members Connection. Peachin has “walk the talk” and lived her life as a self proclaim world-traveling, deep sea diving adrenaline junkie. “If your body aches, you ignore it and keep on trucking”, she preaches.

When it comes to going after what you love in life, do not take no for an answer. You should expect and intend to live a life well lived and always believe the best is yet to come

“Life is too short not to enjoy it.”

Make your life happen and take action today. Be amongst the few who dared to live their dreams. Live your life in such a way that there is no regret.

Time is short; live every day for a higher purpose. Let’s invest the limited time we have on your life’s purpose and mission. Do not focus on your problems and challenges; instead focus on purpose and destination.

Life is brief and it passes quickly. The average American male lives to be 70 years 4 months. The average American female lives 70 years 4 months. To live life to its fullest, it is not the quantity of your life, but the quality.

Time is running out for all of us.

“Your job will not take care of you when your elderly and sick, your friends and family will.”

  1. Select a few friends to be close to in your life and communicate and strengthen your relationship with them
  2. Get over those who disappoint you and refuse to let those people steal your joy
  3. Lift up and encourage those who are recovering from failure. Treat people with Grace.
  4. Ignore your critics. Decide to see the good in the experience and growth, the lessons you learned and the relationships you made.
  5. Stay fully focused on your Lord and Savior Jesus Christ. Believe the best! Christ teaches us to believe the best…faith, hope and love. Remember to rejoice and be glad. If God is for us, who can be against us!

The most effective way to live life on the edge is to “find an edge and Live there”, states Peachin. And, you can start to “find an edge” by writing down your dreams and priorities in life, and then focusing on fulfilling those written dreams and priorities. It starts with knowing what you want, and it ends with getting what you wanted. It’s often that simple.

Save for and invest in the things that matter most!

In every positive or negative situation, there are always options. Remember you are the one pulling the strings, and when things look hopeless, it’s because you’re choosing not look at the things that truly matter. You’re choosing to see the the bad stuff, and they have little to do with your ability to change your circumstances. The trick is that you have to see the ocean of opportunity, not that little bucket of water (problems) that you tripped over.

We must decide to see the good and not dwell on the failure, but instead focus on the positives from the experience. Limits do not exist. You have weaknesses of course and we all do, but focus on your strengths. Remember if you’re feeling scared and fearful, it means you’re trying something new.

People don’t run marathons because it feels good.

When you feel bad about your situation, you’re thinking about the mistakes of yesterday, and not the opportunity of right now and the hope for tomorrow. You’re thinking about what has and what can go wrong, and not what can go right.

When you’re feeling defeated and discouraged, ascertain what you’re really focusing on. It important to focus on how far you’ve come, the opportunities that lie ahead, and the resources available you have to go forward.

“What you focus on expands, and when you focus on the goodness in your life, you create more of it.” Oprah Winfrey

Always think bigger and focus on your purpose. Build the world as you want it to be.

References:

  1. Costco Connection, September 2021, Vol. 36, No. 9, pg. 119
  2. https://personalexcellence.co/blog/101-ways-to-live-your-life-to-the-fullest/

“Those who are the happiest are not necessarily those for whom life has been easiest. Emotional stability results from an attitude. It is refusing to yield to depression and fear, even when black clouds float overhead. It is improving that which can be improved and accepting that which is inevitable.” ― James C. Dobson, Life on the Edge: The Next Generation’s Guide to a Meaningful Future

Own Your Net Worth and Cash Flow

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8 out of 10 women will be solely responsible for their financial well-being. Some women will be ready. Many won’t. UBS Wealth Management Report

As women’s life expectancies increase and the rate of divorce for individuals over age 50 continues to climb, more women will find themselves solely responsible for their own current and long term financial well-being.

UBS Wealth Management embarked on research–Own Your Worth–to explore women’s thoughts and feelings, the challenges they faced, lessons they learned and advice they would impart to other women.

With the wisdom of hindsight, nearly 60% of widows and divorcees regrettably wish they had been more involved in long-term financial decisions while they were married, according to UBS’ findings. A full 98% of them urge other women to become more involved early on.

Unfortunately, too many women ignore the advice of widows and divorcees. In direct contrast to the advice, many married women are taking a lesser role in managing the household finances. In a counterintuitive twist, Millennials are the most willing to leave investing and financial planning decisions to their husbands.

Fifty-six percent of married women still leave investment decisions to their husbands, according to UBS. Surprisingly, 61% of Millennial women do so, more than any other generation. What’s more, most women are quite content with their backseat role when it comes to investing and financial planning.

UBS’ research reveals many reasons for women’s abdication, from historical and social precedents to family, gender roles and confidence levels.

So. why do women minimize their role in major financial decisions? According to USB’ research, the reasons vary:

  • Gender roles run deep – Gender roles are ingrained from early in life and often prove hard to shake. In many cases, married couples are simply imitating the gender roles they witnessed growing up.
  • Men are still the breadwinners – Within families, 70% of men are the main breadwinners, in part because of the gender pay gap and the career breaks women take to raise children.
  • Time constraints are challenging – Whether married or not, women have many demands on their time. They take on the majority of household duties, including childcare and chores, as well as paying bills and tracking spending.
  • Competence vs. confidence – Together, history and society have conspired to affect women’s financial confidence. Both women and men think men know more about investing, and women are less confident than men in making major financial decisions. Women consistently underestimate their own abilities while overestimating what is required to be financially involved.

Yet, most study respondents participated in some financial decisions while married, from handling cash flow and bills to saving and investing. Regardless of their level of engagement, however, most agree it wasn’t enough. The research shows:

  • 59% of widows and divorcees wish they had been more involved in long-term financial decisions
  • 74% don’t consider themselves very knowledgeable about investing
  • 64% of widows blame themselves for not being more financially involved (53% of divorcees)
  • 56% of widows and divorcees discover financial surprises
  • 53% would have done fewer household chores to find more time for finances
  • 79% of women who remarry take a more active role

USB recommends three actions to take today

The advice from women who have been there is clear: The time to become involved in your family’s present and future financial well-being is today, not when some unforeseen events happen in the future.

Women are encouraged to get involved in their financial well-being as a form of self care, much in the same way you would take care of your health by:

  1. Owning your worth – Know where you stand and what you want for the future. Take the time to add up your assets and liabilities, like loans, credit and other debts, and ask for full transparency from your partner.
  2. Finding your voice – Start the conversation with your partner. Talking about money is considered taboo to some couples, particularly before they are married. But if you found yourself alone tomorrow, do you know what you’d do to make sure you’re financially secure? There is a tremendous benefit to having open communication about money with a trusted confidante.
  3. Setting an example – Model financial partnership for your family and loved ones. According to our survey, women are repeating the gender roles they saw growing up. As you begin taking a more active role in your finances, you can set an example of financial partnership for the younger generation.

Though women are aware of their increasing longevity and the financial needs associated with it, most tend to focus their efforts on short-term financial responsibilities such as managing the household’s day-to-day expenses and paying the bills.

In contrast, taking charge of long-term financial decisions, such as investing, financial planning and insurance, can have far more impact on their future than balancing a checkbook.

By sharing decisions jointly, both women and men can face the future with optimism—and set an example of financial partnership for generations to come.

Almost 60% of women do not engage in the most important aspects of their financial well-being: investing, insurance, retirement and other long-term planning. USB Wealth Management Report

References:

  1. https://www.ubs.com/content/dam/WealthManagementAmericas/documents/2018-37666-UBS-Own-Your-Worth-report-R32.pdf
  2. https://www.ubs.com/us/en/investor-watch/own-your-worth/_jcr_content/mainpar/toplevelgrid_1797264592/col2/teaser/linklist/link_2127544961.2019551086.file/PS9jb250ZW50L2RhbS9XZWFsdGhNYW5hZ2VtZW50QW1lcmljYXMvZG9jdW1lbnRzL293bi15b3VyLXdvcnRoLXJlcG9ydC5wZGY=/own-your-worth-report.pdf

Patience is the Key to 10X Investing

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“The stock market is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient.”  Warren Buffett

Patience and successful investing are necessary natural partners. Investing is a long-term prospect, the benefits of which typically come after many years. Patience, too, is a behavior where the benefits are mostly long-term. To be patient is to endure some short-term sacrifice or difficulty for a future reward. Patience is an important investment skill which we need to develop more fully and learning it could help you reach your financial goals.

Patience involves staying calm in situations where you lack control. Being a patient investor might not be easy, but there are tools to help you overcome impatience. Here are a few strategies you can use to cultivate patience and clarity of thought in your investing decisions.

  • Have a plan and think long term. Set long-term financial goals and keep them front of mind during volatile times. A written financial plan is a great idea. Long-term thinking helps you mentally separate your investing journey from your long-term financial destination. Keeping a long-term perspective will give you the psychological fortitude you need to grow your portfolio over the long term.
  • Understand that market volatility is normal. Market volatility is a normal part of life. It might still be unpleasant in the moment, but recognizing that you’ll encounter volatile markets will help you mentally prepare for corrections or other downturns.
  • Look for fear or fundamentals. Consider whether a recent stock decline reflects investor fear or actual negative fundamentals. If markets are driven more by fear, you may not need to worry too much about it: Fear-based corrections often turn around quickly. Even if fundamentals have declined, markets may be pricing in a future far worse than reality. In either situation, be patient and stick to your investment strategy.
  • Remember, time is on your side. Take solace in the long history of capital markets. Corrections are temporary and usually brief, and even bear markets eventually end. Historically, markets go up far more often and by a much greater margin than they go down. Owning stocks for the long term is one of the best ways to profit from economic progress, innovation and compound growth.

Time and patience are two of the most potent factors in investing because it brings the magic of something Albert Einstein once called the 8th wonder of the world- Compounding. It’s not easy, but hopefully these practices can help you focus on the long term and take comfort in stocks’ exceptional performance history.

Its difficult to be patient

Your brain makes it hard to be patient. Human beings were designed to react to threats, either real or perceived. Stressful situations trigger a physiological response in people. This is called the “fight-or-flight” response — either attack or run away, whatever helps alleviate the threat.

The problem is, your mind doesn’t recognize the difference between true physical danger and psychological triggers, like a market crash. Being patient is difficult because it means overcoming these natural instincts. Turbulent financial markets can trigger the response causing real-world impacts you’ll need patience to overcome.

During pandemic-driven bear market, your brain perceives a threat to your financial well-being. Even though stock market volatility isn’t a physical threat, the fight-or-flight response kicks in, emotion takes over, and your brain starts telling you to do something. Your investment portfolio is perceived as being harmed and your metabolically influenced to take action.

With investing, action too often translates into selling something because selling feels like you’re shielding your portfolio from further harm. But selling at the wrong time — like in the middle of a major downturn — is one of the biggest investment mistakes you can make.

If you can find a way to invest inexpensively in the market and stay in the market, you can start to build your net worth. Success in investing requires patience.

“In the end, how your investments behave is much less important than how you behave.” Benjamin Graham

You need patience when what you are invested in is performing poorly—and you need it when what you don’t own is performing well.

one of the most valuable traits an investor can have is patience. If you are a patient investor and decide on great businesses, there is virtually no scenario where you will not make money.

Investing your money in great companies over time will grow into a fortune. Switching in and out of investments cost investors significant returns over time.

“Waiting helps you as an investor and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait. If you didn’t get the deferred-gratification gene, you’ve got to work very hard to overcome that.”  Charlie Munger

When it comes to investing, staying invested is quite often the most prudent and smartest approach for long-term investors. While there will always be market volatility and corrections, the key to successful investing is to stay focused on your goals.

References:

  1. https://www.entrepreneur.com/video/342261
  2. https://www.etmoney.com/blog/time-and-patience-two-key-virtues-to-become-successful-in-investing/
  3. https://www.thestreet.com/thestreet-fisher-investments-investor-opportunity/patience-the-most-underused-investing-skill

Financial Metrics for Evaluating a Stock

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“If you don’t study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.” Peter Lynch

Anyone can be successful investing in the stock market. But, it does take thorough research, patience, discipline and resilience. And, it’s important to appreciate that “Behind every stock, there is a company. Find out what it’s doing”, says Peter Lynch, who managed the Fidelity Magellan Fund from 1977 to 1990 and achieved an impressive return which reportedly averaged over 20% per year.

With a long-term view to investing, Lynch would patiently wait for the company to become recognized by Wall Street for its growth, which subsequently unleashed an explosive rise in its stock price as smart money and institutional investors rush to buy stock.

In his book “One Up On Wall Street”, he reveals his principles and metrics for successful investing. Here are 11 financial metrics investors can utilize to evaluate a company’s value:

  1. Market Cap – Shows the current size and scale of the company. “If a picture is worth a thousand words, in business, so is a number.” Peter Lynch
  2. Strong Balance Sheet (Cash on Hand / Long Term Debt to Equity) – Shows how financially sound a business has become and its capacity to withstand an economic downturn. Determine if the company’s cash has been increasing and long term debt has been decreasing?
  3. Sales and Earnings Growth Rates – Shows if the business model works & current growth rate
  4. Free Cash Flow – Shows if company generating or burning through cash
  5. Returns on Capital (ROE / ROIC / ROA)- shows capital efficiency of business
  6. Margins (Gross Profit Margin / Operating Margin / Profit Margin / Net Income) – Shows current profit profile of products, spending rates, & potential for operating leverage
  7. Total Addressable Market – What is market size and long term growth potential for the company.
  8. Long Term (5+ years) Stock Performance vs. market – has the stock created or destroyed value for shareholders. “In the long run, it’s not just how much money you make that will determine your future prosperity. It’s how much of that money you put to work by saving it and investing it.” Petere Lynch
  9. Current Valuation (Price to Sales / Price to Earnings / Price to Book / Price to FCF) – How expensive or inexpensive is the stock price.or is the company reasonably priced. “If you can follow only one bit of data, follow the earnings (assuming the company in question has earnings). I subscribe to the crusty notion that sooner or later earnings make or break an investment in equities. What the stock price does today, tomorrow, or next week is only a distraction.” Peter Lynch
  10. Mission and Vision Statement – Understand why the company exist.  What is it doing. “Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.” Peter Lynch
  11. Insider Ownership – Do insiders have skin in the game. SEC Filings. Information available on proxy statement.

Additionally, it is important to figure out:

  1. What is changing
  2. What is not changing
  3. Is there an underappreciation for either. “Your investor’s edge is not something you get from Wall Street experts. It’s something you already have. You can outperform the experts if you use your edge by investing in companies or industries you already understand.” Peter Lynch

Do that well, move on #3, you’re the best investor in the world.

As an investor, unless you understand the underlying business of a company, you will not be able to hold its stock when the price is falling. You could end up selling a great company out of fear – even though its price will recover in the future and give you great returns in the years to come. The ability to hold a good company even when its stock price is falling or undergoing a time correction – will play a crucial role in you becoming a successful investor.

In the long run, the stock price will go up only if the business of the company does well.

In Peter Lynch’s own words “I think you have to learn that there’s a company behind every stock, and that there’s only one real reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies”

If you like a stock, buy small quantity of shares. Study the company in more detail. Buy more shares if you like its business. As your understanding of the business increases, your conviction (confidence) will also increase, this will allow you to give higher allocation in your portfolio.

Categories of Stocks in the Stock Market

Peter Lynch divided different stocks into six categories

Slow Growers – Slow growers are those stocks that have a slow growth rate i.e. a low upward slope of earnings and revenue growth.These slow growers can be characterized by the size and generosity of their dividend. According to Peter Lynch, the only reason to buy these stocks are dividends.

The Stalwarts – The Stalwarts have an average growth rate as that of industry and are usually mid to large companies. They have an earnings growth between the 8-12 percent CAGR range. According to Peter Lynch, investors can get an adequate return from these stocks if they hold these stocks for a long time.

The Fast Growers – The fast growers are generally aggressive companies and they grow at an impressive rate of 15-25% per year. They are fast-growth stocks and grow at a comparatively faster rate compared to the industry average and competitors. However, Peter Lynch advises that one should be open-eyed when they own a fast grower. There is a great likelihood for the fast growers to get hammered if they run out of steam or if their growth is not sustainable.

The Cyclicals – Cyclical are stocks that grow at a very fast pace during their favorable economic cycle. The cyclical companies tend to flourish when coming out of a recession into a vigorous economy. Peter Lynch advises investors to own the cyclical only on the right part of the cycle i.e. when they are expanding. If bought at the wrong phase, it may even take them years before they perform. Timing is everything while investing in cyclical stocks.

The Turnarounds – The turnarounds are characterized as potential fatalities that have been badly hammered by the market for one or more of a variety of reasons but can make up the lost ground under the correct circumstances. Holding turnarounds can be very profitable if the management is able to turn the company as these stocks can be bought at a very low valuation by the investors. However, if the management fails to bring back the company on track, it can be very troublesome for the investors.

Asset Plays – Asset Plays are those stocks whose assets are overlooked by the market and are undervalued. These assets may be properties, equipment, or other real assets that the company is holding but which is not valued by the investors when there has been a general market downturn. The real value may be worth more than the market capitalization of the company. Peter Lynch suggests owning a few of these stocks in your portfolio as they are most likely to add a lot of value to your portfolio. However, the biggest significant factor while picking these stocks is to carefully estimate the right worth of the assets. If you are able to do it, you can pick valuable gems.

“Average investors can become experts in their own field and can pick winning stocks as effectively as Wall Street professionals by doing just a little research.” Peter Lynch

Infinity income – When your income from investments is higher than your expenses, you might be able to live off those returns for 10 years, 30 years, 50 years… or forever!

References:

  1. https://stockinvestingtoday.blog/the-investing-style-of-peter-lynch?
  2. https://www.thebalance.com/peter-lynch-s-secret-formula-for-valuing-a-stock-s-growth-3973486
  3. https://goldenfs.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/summary-One-Up-On-Wall-Street-Peter-Lynch-2-scaled.jpg

The Psychology Behind Your Worst Investment Decisions | Kiplinger Magazine

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“When it comes to investing, we have met the enemy, and it’s us.” Kiplinger Magazine

Excited by profit and terrified of loss, we let our emotions and minds trick us into making terrible investing decisions, writes Katherine Reynolds Lewis of Kiplinger Magazine.

Most individual investors allow their emotions to dictate their investment decisions. Effectively, there are two types of emotional reactions the average investor can experience:

Fear of Missing Out (FOMO). These investors will chase stocks that appear to be doing well, for fear of missing out on making money. This leads to speculation without regard for the underlying investment strategy. Investors can’t afford to get caught up in the “next big craze,” or they might be left holding valueless stocks when the craze subsides.

  • Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) can lead to speculative decision-making in emerging areas that are not yet established.
  • Fear of Losing Everything (FOLE) is a more powerful emotion that comes from the fear that they will lose all of their investment.

Acording to a 2021 Dalbar study of investor behavior, Dalbar found that individual fund investors consistently underperformed the market over the 20 years ending Dec. 31, 2020, generating a 5.96% average annualized return compared with 7.43% for the S&P 500 and 8.29% for the Global Equity Index 100.

“As humans, we’re wired to act opposite to our interests,” says Sunit Bhalla, a certified financial planner in Fort Collins, Colo. “We should be selling high and buying low, but our mind is telling us to buy when things are high and sell when they’re going down. It’s the classic fear-versus- greed fight we have in our brains.”

Avoiding these seven “emotional and behaviorial” investing traps will allow you to make rational investments.

  1. Fear of Missing Out – Like sheep, investors often take their cues from other investors and sometimes follow one another right over a market cliff. This herd mentality stems from a fear of missing out.  The remedy: By the time you invest in whatever is trending, it’s too late because professional investors trade the instant that news breaks. Individual investors should buy and sell based on the fundamentals of an investment, not the hype.
  2. Overconfidence – Some investors tend to overestimate their abilities. They believe they know better than everyone else about what the market is going to do next, says Aradhana Kejriwal, chartered financial analyst and founder of Practical Investment Consulting in Atlanta. “We want to believe we know the future. Our brains crave certainty.” The remedy: To combat overconfidence, build in a delay before you buy or sell an investment so that the decision is made rationally.
  3. Living in an Echo Chamber – Overconfidence sometimes goes hand in hand with confirmation bias, which is the tendency to seek out only information that confirms our beliefs. If we think an asset holds promise for riches, news about people making money sticks in our minds more than negative news, which we tend to dismiss. The remedy: To counteract this bias, actively seek out information that contradicts your thesis.
  4. Loss Aversion – Our brains feel pain more strongly than they experience pleasure. As a result, we tend to act more irrationally to avoid losses than we do to pursue gains. The remedy: Stock market losses, however, are inevitable.If seeing the losses pile up in a down market is too hard for you, simply don’t look. Have faith in your long-term investing strategy, and check your portfolio less often.
  5. No Patience for Sitting Idly By – As humans, we’re wired for action. That compulsion to act is known as action bias, and it’s one reason individual investors can’t outperform the market — we tend to trade too often. Doing so not only incurs trading fees and commissions, which eat into returns, but more often than not, we realize losses and miss out on potential gains. The remedy: Investors need to play the long game. Resist trading just for the sake of making a decision, and just buy and hold instead.
  6. Gambler’s Fallacy – “This is the tendency to overweight the probability of an event because it hasn’t recently occurred,” says Vicki Bogan, associate professor at Cornell University. Over time, the probability of equities having an up year or a down year is about the same, regardless of the previous year’s performance. That’s true for individual stocks as well. The remedy: When stocks go down, don’t just assume they’ll come back up. “You should be doing some analysis to see what’s going on,” Bogan says.
  7. Recency Bias – Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Yet, our minds tell us something different. “Most people think what has happened recently will continue to happen,” Bhalla says. It’s why investors will plow more money into a soaring stock market, when in fact they should be selling at least some of those appreciated shares. And if markets plummet, our brains tell us to run for the exits instead of buying when share prices are down.The remedy: You can combat this impulse by creating a solid, balanced portfolio and rebalancing it every six  months. That way, you sell the assets that have climbed and buy the ones that have fallen. “It forces us to act opposite to what our minds are telling us,” he says.

It is wise to always keep in mind that the market is volatile as a result of investors’ emotions and behaviors, and thus does not move logically.

References:

  1. https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/603153/the-psychology-behind-your-worst-investment-decisions

by: Katherine Reynolds Lewis – July 22, 2021

The Laws of Wealth by Daniel Crosby

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“Get rid of the excuses and get invested.” Fidelity Investment

Daniel Crosby, author of The Laws of Wealth, presents 10 rules of behavioral self-management.

Rule #1 – You Control What Matters Most. “The behavior gap measures the loss that the average investor incurs as a result of emotional responses to market conditions.” As an example, the author notes that the best performing mutual fund during the period 2000-2010 was CGM Focus, with an 18.2% annualized return; however the average investor in the fund had a negative return! The reason is that they tended to buy when the fund was soaring and sell in a panic when the price dipped. More on volatility later…

Rule #2 — You Cannot Do This Alone. “Vanguard estimated that the value added by working with a competent financial advisor is roughly 3% per year… The benefits of working with an advisor will be ‘lumpy’ and most concentrated during times of profound fear and greed… The best use of a financial advisor is as a behavioral coach rather than an asset manager.” Make sure your advisor is a fiduciary. “A fiduciary has a legal requirement to place his clients’ interest ahead of his own.”

Rule #3 – Trouble Is Opportunity. “The market feels most scary when it is actually most safe… Corrections and bear markets are a common part of any investment lifetime, they represent long-term buying opportunity and a systematic process is required to take advantage of them.” The author quotes Ben Carlson: “Markets don’t usually perform the best when they go from good to great. They actually show the best performance when things go from terrible to not-quite-so-terrible as before.”

To do this is by keeping some assets in cash a buy list of stocks that are great qualitly, have a strong balance sheet and a strong brand, but are expensive.

Rule #4 – If You’re Excited, It’s a Bad Idea. “Emotions are the enemy of good investment decisions.”

Rule #5 – You Are Not Special. “A belief in personal exceptionality causes us to ignore potential danger, take excessively concentrated stock positions and stray from areas of personal competence… An admission of our own mediocrity is what is required for investment excellence… This tendency to own success and outsource failure [known as fundamental attribution error] leads us to view all investment successes as personal skill, thereby robbing us of opportunities for learning as well as any sense of history. When your stocks go up, you credit your personal genius. When your stocks go down, you fault externalities. Meanwhile, you learn nothing.”

Rule #6 – Your Life Is the Best Benchmark. “As a human race, we are generally more interested in being better than other people than we are in doing well ourselves.” However, “measuring performance against personal needs rather than an index has been shown to keep us invested during periods of market volatility, enhance savings behavior and help us maintain a long-term focus.”

Rule #7 – Forecasting Is For Weathermen. “The research is unequivocal—forecasts don’t work. As a corollary, neither does investing based on these forecasts…. Scrupulously avoid conjecture about the future, rely on systems rather than biased human judgment and be diversified enough to show appropriate humility.”

Rule #8 – Excess Is Never Permanent. “We expect that if a business is well-run and profitable today this excellence will persist.” The author quotes James O’Shaughnessy: “‘The most ironclad rule I have been able to find studying masses of data on the stock market, both in the United States and developed foreign markets, is the idea of reversion to the mean.’ Contrary to the popular idea of bear markets being risky and bull markets being risk-free, the behavioral investor must concede that risk is actually created in periods of market euphoria and actualized in down markets.”

Rule #9 – Diversification Means Always Having to Say You’re Sorry. “You can take it to the bank that some of your assets will underperform every single year… The simple fact is that no one knows which asset classes will do well at any given time and diversification is the only logical response to such uncertainty… Broad diversification and rebalancing have been shown to add half a percentage point of performance per year, a number that can seem small until you realize how it is compounded over an investment lifetime.”

Rule #10 – Risk Is Not a Squiggly Line. “Wall Street is stuck in a faulty, short-sighted paradigm that views risk as a mathematical reduction [of volatility]… a flaw that can be profitably exploited by the long-term, behavioral investor who understands the real definition of risk… Volatility is the norm, not the exception, and it should be planned for and diversified against, but never run from… Let me say emphatically, there is no greater risk than overpaying for a stock, regardless of its larger desirability as a brand.”

One of the most interesting concepts in the book is that investing in an index is not as passive as we might assume. Crosby quotes Rob Arnott: “‘The process is subjective—not entirely rules based and certainly not formulaic. There are many who argue that the S&P 500 isn’t an index at all: It’s an actively managed portfolio selected by a committee—whose very membership is a closely guarded secret!—and has shown a stark growth bias throughout its recent history of additions and deletions… The capitalization-weighted portfolio overweights the overvalued stocks and underweights the undervalued stocks…’ In a very real sense, index investing locks in the exact opposite of what we ought to be doing and causes us to buy high and sell low… Buying a capitalization weighted index like the S&P 500 means that you would have held nearly 50% tech stocks in 2000 and nearly 40% financials in 2008.”

“Once we realize that passive indexes are not mined from the Earth, but rather assembled arbitrarily by committee, the most pertinent question is not if you are actively investing (you are) but how best to actively invest.”

“Behavioral risk is the potential for your actions to increase the probability of permanent loss of capital… Behavioral risk is a failure of self… Our own behavior poses at least as great a threat as business or market risks… We must design a process that is resistant to emotion, ego, bad information, misplaced attention and our natural tendency to be loss averse.”

Crosby presents rule-based behavioral investment, or RBI for short. “The myriad behavior traps to which we can fall prey can largely be mitigated through the simple but elegant process that is RBI. The process is easily remembered by the following four Cs:

  1. Consistency – frees us from the pull of ego, emotion and loss aversion, while focusing our efforts on uniform execution.
  2. Clarity – we prioritize evidence-based factors and are not pulled down the seductive path of worrying about the frightening but unlikely or the exciting but useless.
  3. Courageousness – we automate the process of contrarianism: doing what the brain knows best but the heart and stomach have trouble accomplishing.
  4. Conviction – helps us walk the line between hubris and fear by creating portfolios that are diverse enough to be humble and focused enough to offer a shot at long-term outperformance.”

“Rule-based investing is about making simple, systematic tweaks to your investment portfolio to try and get an extra percentage point or two that has a dramatic positive impact on managing risk and compounding your wealth over time… We know that what works are strategies that are diversified, low fee, low turnover and account for behavioral biases.”

“Just like a casino, you will stick to your discipline in all weather, realizing that if you tilt probability in your favor ever so slightly, you will be greatly rewarded in the end… Becoming a successful behavioral investor looks a great deal like being The House instead of The Drunken Vacationer.”

The author quotes Jason Zweig: “You will do a great disservice to yourselves… if you view behavioral finance mainly as a window onto the world. In truth, it is also a mirror that you must hold up to yourselves.”

Crosby, Daniel. The Laws of Wealth: Psychology and the Secret to Investing Success. Hampshire, Great Britain: Harriman House, 2016.