Warren Buffett’s Investment Strategy

An initial investment of  $10,000 in Berkshire Hathaway when Warren Buffett took over in 1964 would now be worth more than $438 million!

Despite his reputation for picking winning stocks, Berkshire chairman and CEO Warren Buffett wrote to investors in his 2022 Berkshire Hathaway letter: “Charlie [Munger] and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers.”

Over the decades, Buffett has refined a holistic approach to assessing a business—looking not just at earnings but also at its overall health, deficiencies, and strengths. He focuses more on a company’s characteristics and less on its stock price, waiting to buy only when the cost seems reasonable.

In short, Warren Buffett’s investing strategy is not complicated:

  • Buy businesses, not stocks. In other words, think like a business owner, not someone who owns a piece of paper (or, these days, a digital trade confirmation).
  • Look for companies with competitive advantages that can be maintained or economic moats. Firms fending off competitors have a better chance of increasing intrinsic value over time.
  • Focus on long-term intrinsic value, not short-term earnings. What matters is how much cash a company can generate for its owners in the future. Therefore, value companies use a discounted cash flow analysis.
  • Demand a margin of safety. Future cash flows are, by their nature, uncertain. Always buy companies for less than their intrinsic values to compensate for that uncertainty.
  • Be patient. Investing isn’t about instant gratification; it’s about long-term success.

Other investing virtues prized by Buffett include candid communication with shareholders, patience in letting an investment bear fruit and emphasizing practical vehicles over investing fads.

Patience Pays:  An initial Investment of  $10,000 in Berkshire Hathaway when Warren Buffett took over in 1964 would have purchased approximately 808 company shares at a stock price of just $12.37 per share.

As of the end of 2023, Berkshire Hathaway’s Class A shares (which have existed since 1964) traded for just over $542,625 per share. The stock has produced an overall gain of 4,386,621% from 1964 to 2023. Your initial $10,000 investment would now be worth more than $438 million!

While Berkshire Hathaway’s past 60 years have been an impressive growth story, Buffett cautions that the company’s size has become too large to sustain the same 20% growth rates over the long term. He believes future gains will not be as dramatic as those of the past 60 years.

Nevertheless, Buffett’s core investment strategy prioritizes thinking like a business owner and viewing investments as actual companies, not just as stocks.

He has long advocated for “boring” investing and the notion that real moneymaking happens when you sit back and trust in a long-term plan instead of strapping in for a wild ride seeking short-term profit. He continues to focus on lifelong learning, whether that means unpacking what a new product is all about or reading up on interdisciplinary subjects.

And he intends to give away 99% of his wealth to philanthropy.

Source: Susan Dziubinski, How to Invest Like Warren Buffett, Morningstar, March 13, 2024.

Investing and Building Wealth

“Leaving the question of price aside, the best business to own is one that over an extended period can employ large amounts of incremental capital at very high rates of return.” – Warren Buffett, 1992 Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letter.

Investing is putting money into different securities or investment vehicles, hoping these securities will increase in price and payout profits.

In particular, investing in the stock market involves buying shares of companies that then rise in price. Some companies also pay dividends on their shares at regular intervals.

The end goal of investing is to spread your wealth in different vehicles that grow your money over time.

“Don’t be afraid to overpay for a stock with a history of rewarding shareholders. Winning stocks tend to keep winning if you have a long-term outlook.”  Charlie Munger convinced Warren Buffett that sometimes it’s worth paying a premium for a great business.

A company’s intrinsic value is the present value of all of its future free cash flows (meaning from now until the end of time- all the free cash flows that it will ever generate).

Free cash flow (FCF) is the amount of cash the firm generates from its operations minus the amount of money it reinvested into its operations. Cash flows are “free” because they can be used to pay off debt, buy back shares, pay dividends, or leave in the firm’s bank account.

If you own a private company, this is what you would think of as “real earnings” that you can pay yourself with, given that you don’t have to reinvest those funds into the operation.

”Good things happen to cheap stocks of out-of-favor, industry-leading companies.” ~ Nancy Tengler

The most crucial quantitative evidence of an economic moat is a high return on invested capital (ROIC).

Return on invested capital, or ROIC, is a financial metric that helps understand how efficiently a company generates profits. The less capital it requires to produce earnings, the better.

For example, what does an ROIC of nearly 920% mean? It basically says that a company like Apple can generate massive profits with little investment.

The formula for ROIC is highlighted below. To reinforce, the larger the numerator (NOPAT is the after-tax operating profit) relative to the denominator (which can be defined as fixed assets plus net working capital), the more efficient the company is.

ROIC = NOPAT/Average Invested Capital

ROIC = NOPAT/Average Invested Capital

Investors— both shareholders and creditors— require a certain level of return in exchange for providing a company with the funds it needs to run its business. This is called the weighted average of capital (WACC). A company generates excess returns if its ROIC consistently exceeds its WACC.

For example, imagine little Joey wants to open a lemonade stand. He needs $100 upfront to buy a table, a pitcher, lemons, sugar, ice, and cups. This is invested capital. Joey borrows $50 from Mom and promises to pay her 5% interest ($2.50). Dad has a higher risk tolerance, so he buys $50 of common stock in Joey’s lemonade stand. Dad equity return (this is called the cost of equity).

Buffett created a concept called owner earnings. It is a measure of the firm’s potential free cash flows if it weren’t reinvesting them:

Owner Earnings = Earnings + Depreciation & Amortization + Other Non-Cash Charges – Maintenance Capital Expenditures

Attaining prosperity and financial freedom and building wealth through investing in the stock market for the long term is fundamental.


References:

  1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2022/01/19/financial-freedom-in-2022-investing-in-stock-market-ideas
  2. http://www.comusinvestment.com/blog/growth-returns-on-capital-and-business-valuation
  3. https://einvestingforbeginners.com/buffetts-return-on-invested-capital-formula-daah/

Wealth and Gratitude

“He is a wise man who does not grieve for the things which he has not, but rejoices for those which he has.” ~ Epictetus

When we think of wealth and financial independence, the word and thoughts that usually come to mind is more…more money and financial assets, more big boy toys and larger estate homes. But according to most Stoics or philosophers, their insight is that once your essential needs are satisfied, the easiest way to create wealth and achieve financial independence is to want less.

“Wealth consists not in having great possessions, but in having few wants. He is a wise man who does not grieve for the things he has not, but rejoices for those which he has.” ~ Epictetus

Source: X (formerly Twitter)

Baby Boomers’ Wealth Transfer

“Experts say baby boomers will transfer over $50 trillion in wealth to their heirs. But for many, health care costs will claim the bulk of that wealth.” ~ NBC News

Baby boomers have experienced decades of wealth-building through real estate and the stock market, but skyrocketing healthcare costs will drain those resources faster for those who aren’t extraordinarily wealthy, according to NBC News.

Healthcare costs for elderly Americans and baby boomers are incredibly expensive and frequently wipe out people’s life savings. Thus, many people hoping that the “wealth transfer” will leave them with a substantial inheritance will end up disappointed because health care for older people in America is very expensive and destroying the transfer of wealth from baby boomers to subsequent generations.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, people under the age of 65 reported spending an average of $5,209 per year on their health care in 2022, while those over 65 reported $7,540 annually.

By 2050, there are expected to be 84 million people over 65, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s almost 50% more seniors than there are today.

Thus, the widely held belief that baby boomers are going to transfer tens of trillions of dollars to their heirs over the next few decades may not be entirely true.

The “generational wealth transfer” from Baby Boomers to Generation X and Millennials may not be as large as previously forecasted due to the rising costs of healthcare. The overwhelming cost of health care for older people means most people in those later generations won’t inherit much, even if their elders seem well-off today.

Cerulli estimated that 68% of the wealth transferred between 2020 and 2045 — which includes boomers as well as older generations — will come from U.S. households with at least $1 million in investable assets. And only 6.9% of households have that kind of wealth to begin with, Cerulli added.


References:

  1. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/generational-wealth-transfer-baby-boomers-cant-save-gen-x-millennials-rcna128099

Coffee Can Investing Strategy (Finding 100 Bagger)

“I try to invest in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will.”  ― Warren Buffett

Coffee Can Investment Strategy involves buying and holding a portfolio of high-quality companies for the long-term, typically ten years or more. The strategy is based on the premise that investing in the right high-quality companies will result in significant capital appreciation over time.

The concept was popularized in India by Saurabh Mukherjea in his book “ Coffee Can Investing:  The Low-Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.

In this strategy, investors pick a group of high-quality companies with a proven track record of generating consistent profits, revenue growth and return on invested capital (ROIC). The chosen equity stocks are held for an extended period irrespective of market conditions or short term volatility.

This strategy allows investors to avoid the temptation of selling their equity holdings during short-term market volatility. It protect the investor from their own bad decision and investing behavior.

You only need one of the Coffee Can companies to hit and become a 100 bagger.

But, how to look at a small cap company and know that they have a runway.

Look at the ownership and use your imagination to determine if a company can have organic growth and expand into other markets.

At the end of 10 years, you will have some stocks that have not grown, others that have lost value, and two to four outperformers. Those outperformers will provide a high return on investment.

It refers to companies that have generated a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of over 15% every year with the Coffee Can Investing approach. This makes the approach a low-risk route to making stupendous wealth.

Coffee Can Portfolio is mostly concerned with stock quality. As an investor, you must choose a quality stock, which signifies a fundamentally strong company. Here are some points to build a Coffee Can Portfolio.

  1. The company should have been in existence for at least 10 years.
  2. The revenue growth should be at least 10% year per year.
  3. ROIC of at least 15% for 10 years
  4. Market capitalization should be more than $500 million USD
  5. The company should have good brand value.
  6. The company should have a competitive edge.
  7. Founder or CEO has skin in the game focused on driving value in the business. Executive management is strong. 

For instance, let’s take an example of a toothpaste company. If a toothpaste company’s prices are increased, will people stop brushing? The answer is “NO.” Similarly, this strategy neither works on quantity nor growth; it works on quality investing.


References:

  1. https://groww.in/blog/the-coffee-can-portfolio

Stocks Beat Bonds as Inflation Hedge

“Stocks are great long-term inflation hedges if you are still worried about inflationary risks.” ~ Jeremy Siegel, Wharton School Economist

“If you are worried about the inflationary impacts, stocks are far better hedges than bonds — as companies can pass along their own input cost spikes to consumers,”Jeremy Siegel, Wharton School Economist, wrote in his weekly commentary published Monday for WisdomTree, where he is senior economist.

“If you bought the inflation-hedged bonds at 2% yields, it would take 36 years to double your purchasing power,” wrote Siegel, an emeritus professor at The Wharton School. “The S&P 500, however, is priced around 18 times next year’s earnings, giving a 5.5% earnings yield. This takes just 13 years to double purchasing power.”

“Stocks at the present time—with earnings of just under $250 for the S&P 500,” are preferred states Siegel. “This giving just under an 18x earnings per share valued market. I think that is a favorable multiple for the market. I believe stocks are great long-term inflation hedges if you are still worried about inflationary risks. I think stocks can handle another quarter point rise by the Fed if they deem it necessary.”


References:

  1. https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2023/09/28/jeremy-siegel-stocks-beating-bonds-as-inflation-hedge/
  2. https://www.wisdomtree.eu/-/media/us-media-files/documents/resource-library/weekly-commentary/siegel-weekly-commentary.pdf

Value vs Growth Stocks

Value investors want to buy stocks for less than they’re worth. If you could buy $100 bills for $80, wouldn’t you do so? ~ Motley Fool

Most public equity stocks are classified as either value stocks or growth stocks. Generally speaking:

  • A value stock trades for a cheaper price than its financial performance and fundamentals suggest it’s worth.
  • A growth stock is a stock in a company expected to deliver above-average returns compared to its industry peers or the overall stock market.

Value stocks generally have the following characteristics:

  • They typically are mature businesses.
  • They have steady (but not spectacular) growth rates.
  • They report relatively stable revenues and earnings.
  • Most value stocks pay dividends, although this isn’t a set-in-stone rule.

Growth stocks generally have the following characteristics:

  • They increase their revenue and earnings at a faster rate than the average business in their industry or the market as a whole.
  • They developed an innovative product or service that is gaining share in existing markets, entering new markets, or even creating entirely new industries.
  • They grow faster than average for long periods tend to be rewarded by the market, delivering handsome returns to shareholders in the process.

Regardless of the category of a stock, economic downturns present an opportunity for a value investor. The goal of value investing is to scoop up shares at a discount, and the best time to do so is when the entire stock market is on sale.


References:

  1. https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/types-of-stocks/value-stocks/
  2. https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/types-of-stocks/growth-stocks/

How to Build Wealth When You Don’t Come from Money

by Anne-Lyse Wealth
March 17, 2022

Summary. The first step to building wealth involves your mindset and behaviors. To build wealth, you must first address the systemic and mental barriers faced by many Americans who grew up in families and environments without access to wealth. Changing your mindset and financial behaviors, or building a mindset and creating good financial habits conducive to building wealth, are the real and necessary first steps.

  • To start, let go of limiting beliefs. When you grow up lacking money or the resources to make enough of it, thinking there is a shortage of resources, or watching people around you live paycheck to paycheck, you may be more likely to believe that wealth is reserved for a select few.
  • To overcome this mindset and believe you deserve abundance, practice thought work daily. This is the act of consciously paying attention to your thoughts and then choosing to entertain different ones instead.
  • Next, accept that money can do as much good as evil. Don’t let fear stop you from pursuing wealth or the kind of paycheck you need to support you and what you want to accomplish in your lifetime.
  • Finally, understand that a high income is not enough. Building wealth requires intentionally managing your expenses — and, yes, investing. Investing is for everyone, and it can help even the playing field.

Do you want to be wealthy and financially free? Most people probably do — but it is not a leisurely pursuit. The widening wealth gap between the rich and the poor makes it seem impossible for most.

According to a recent Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report, millionaires represent less than 9% of the United States population. Even so, the same report notes that in 2020 alone, there were 1.7 new millionaires in the U.S. According to business theorist Thomas J. Stanley, who studied more than 1,000 millionaires for his book The Millionaire Next Door, 80% of U.S. millionaires are first-generation “rich.” That means they didn’t inherit their wealth but built it over time.

These statistics can make you wonder what it takes for a person to overcome humble beginnings and achieve the “American Dream.” What does it take to become a millionaire when you don’t come from wealth?

The first step to attaining wealth — at least for Americans not born into it — is much more personal than mimicking the habits of “The Millionaire Next Door” or investing wisely. Such approaches often fail to address the systemic and mental barriers faced by many Americans who grew up without access to wealth.

Changing your mindset, or building a mindset conducive to wealth, is the first step to attaining it. This means believing that wealth is accessible and you are worthy of wealth. Without that mental drive, the other strategies are moot.

To achieve this mindset, you must let go of limiting beliefs. For most people, developing an abundance mindset, or believing there are enough resources and opportunities for everyone, requires an intentional effort. This is even more true for those who grew up with limited resources and less access to wealth.

According to a study conducted at Purdue University, many of your financial habits are formed by age seven. That means your feelings about money are primarily influenced by how people around you talk about or behave around it.

When you grow up lacking money or the resources to make enough of it, thinking that there is a shortage of resources, or watching people around you live paycheck to paycheck — you may be more likely to believe that wealth is reserved for a select few. I suppose you might be wrong.

It takes more work to expect abundance when you don’t see it around you.

“Every day, many negative thoughts race through our minds. If we don’t learn to filter those thoughts, we start believing them. Eventually, they can lead to a scarcity mindset, which leads to scarcity actions or broke-ass decisions,” said Rachel Rodgers.

Rodgers doesn’t believe in ignoring our negative experiences. Instead, she suggests using them as fuel to help us build a better future. “For example, changing your thoughts is not going to make racism or violence against Black people end,” Rodgers said. “Racism presents many challenges and obstacles to our ability to build wealth. That said, we can work with our thoughts to choose a more effective and empowering response to the racism we experience. Our anger can be a powerful fuel for action.”

Rodgers believes in rewiring our brains to expect abundance and emphasizes the importance of making million-dollar decisions before becoming a millionaire. In Rodgers ‘ words, this involves doing some thought work, “the act of consciously paying attention to your thoughts and then choosing to entertain different ones instead.” She recommends practicing this daily.

“Even though I run an eight-figure business, I do thought work daily,” she said. “When you think more positively about yourself, your work, your intelligence, and your financial decisions, you will start taking more positive actions. Eventually, after some practice, it can improve your life.”

According to Rodgers, million-dollar decisions create time, energy, and options. When you apply for a job, receive an offer, and make a counteroffer because you know your worth, you make a million-dollar decision. When you are proactive about asking for a raise, researching industry rates, and making a case to your boss, you are making a million-dollar decision instead of growing overwhelmed and not acting at all.

Ultimately, your mindset can lead to significant missed opportunities if you don’t change it and believe you deserve abundance no matter where you start.

Accept that money is not always evil.
We’ve all heard the saying that “money is the root of all evil.” Many people — especially those with negative formative experiences with it — will stop desiring wealth because of that belief. But understanding that you can use your money to do good in the world can be a game-changer.

Realized there were other ways to give back to your community. Use money to help others access education and, in turn, have a greater chance of accessing financial freedom.

Similarly, Rodgers initially went to law school because she wanted to work for a nonprofit, advocating for marginalized communities. “The pressures from family members and my student loan debt eventually pushed me to give up on my dream for the sake of making money. I flew around the country, interviewing for jobs I didn’t want. I was offered an associate attorney position at a firm representing Big Oil companies.”

Ultimately, Rodgers’ belief that she could find a more outstanding balance between earning and giving drove her to turn down the position and launch her own business. She credits her decision to her Aunt Barbara, who paid the balance on her college tuition, and the parents of a girl she used to babysit for making her realize that all rich people were not evil. “Now, with my business, I help thousands of women and other members of underrepresented communities to increase their earning potential — and I make millions doing it.”

The big takeaway? Money can do as much good as it can evil. Don’t let fear stop you from pursuing wealth or the kind of paycheck you need to support you and what you want to accomplish in your lifetime. That would be akin to giving up before you even begin.

Understand that more than a high income is needed.
Another mind trap it’s easy to fall into is believing that a high salary will eventually lead to accumulated wealth. Realistically, it probably won’t. Building wealth requires intentionally managing your expenses — and, yes, investing.

With inflation, or the increase in goods and service prices over time, money loses value the longer it sits still. Building wealth, then, requires investing, whether it’s in the stock market, real estate, a business, or another wealth-building avenue.

Business manager Michelle Richburg shared that most of her clients, many of whom are first-generation millionaires, have had to learn the hard way that being intentional about budgeting and investing is essential to build wealth.

Schadeck similarly believes that investing provides an opportunity to level the playing field. “Most people who don’t come from a wealthy or financially literate family fall victim to this. However, the birth of online investment brokerage firms democratized the industry. Investing is for everyone.”

To get past this mental roadblock, Schadeck encourages her clients to imagine life if they didn’t have to work for money. She tells them to hold onto that vision and mirror it in their actions.

What does that look like?

Schadeck tells her clients to start investing as soon as they can afford it — even if that means putting forth a small dollar amount. “A mindset shift happens when you build financial discipline as an investor. You could start with $45,” she said, “and that small investment will build up over time with compound interest. Starting small is the secret, and being consistent is the key.”

Be willing to create your path.

There’s no one-size-fits-all for wealth building. No matter the path, what will make a difference is your consistency.

“You shouldn’t work yourself up trying to attain some made-up standard for how you create your wealth. My plan for building wealth was through entrepreneurship, and I still recommend it as the most sustainable and fastest path forward. However, that’s not what works for everyone. I know folks who’ve built wealth by investing in stocks, through real estate, or by saving,” Rodgers told me.

Whether you aspire to become a millionaire or not, no matter what path you choose, you can benefit from rethinking your relationship with money to increase your chances of making more. Money doesn’t mean happiness, but wealth gives access to options and, potentially, a better quality of life.

Changing your mindset and applying these tips may not make you a millionaire, but adopting them will benefit your wealth-building journey.


Source:
Anne-Lyse Wealth is a writer, personal finance educator, and certified public accountant. She is the founder of Dreamoflegacy.com, a platform

  1. https://hbr.org/2022/03/how-to-build-wealth-when-you-dont-come-from-money

Blogger’s Note: The opinions expressed here are for general informational purposes only. Doing your research and analysis before making any financial decisions is essential. We recommend speaking to an independent advisor if you are unsure how to proceed.

Long-term Investing Perspective

Warren Buffett once said, “Someone is sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.”

One tried and true investment philosophy is investing with a long-term perspective. In essence, the time-arbitrage approach gives long-term investors an edge. Most investors are focused on the short term, basing trading decisions on factors that may have little to do with business fundamentals, such as quarterly earnings beat or miss or overall market volatility.

Long-term investors often adopt a long-term perspective while taking advantage of the shortsightedness and noise of the market. They tend to conduct extensive research and conduct a deep dive into the fundamentals of every company in which they are considering an investment.

Their extensive research allows them to develop an informed and thorough understanding of the longer-term secular advantages of these companies. Ultimately, they are more interested in the duration of a company’s growth opportunity rather than being overly focused on its timing.

They like to invest early before a company is on the market’s radar because they believe it’s impossible to pinpoint precisely when the market will notice and start trading the stock up to reflect its growth opportunity properly. This is a vital part of the engine that drives alpha for us.

Low turnover is an outgrowth of this investment process rather than a goal in and of itself. If they find and invest in the right companies, they believe that it makes little sense to replace these companies with new and relatively untested ones. Wsupported remain invested throughout the duration of the growth trajectory of our highest conviction companies. We also believe this is a more tax efficient approach to managing a portfolio and one that is often attractive to company management who are aware of our reputation as long-term holders of stock.

Your primary goal must be capital appreciation, and you should stay involved as companies grow and flourish as long as your investment thesis holds true.

The best risk management starts with knowing the companies in which you invest. By conducting extensive research prior to initiating a position in a company and continuing to conduct due diligence will keep you apprised of the company’s growth story.