Tag Archives: Economic Growth

U.S. GDP Contracted for the First Time since 2020Q2

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A recession is typically considered two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

U.S. economic activity contracted for the first time since mid-2020, with lingering supply chain constraints, inflation at its hottest rate since the early 1980s, expected interest rate increases announced by the Fed, and disruptions amid Russia’s war in Ukraine weighing on economic growth.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its initial estimate of first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).

The main metrics from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg, are:

  • GDP annualized, quarter-over-quarter: -1.4% vs. 1.0% expected, 6.9% in Q4
  • Personal Consumption: 2.7% vs. 3.5% expected, 2.5% in Q4
  • Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, quarter-over-quarter: 5.2% vs. 5.5% expected, 5.0% in Q4

What does the metrics all mean?

The economic metrics are important indicators of the state of the U.S. economy at the start of this calendar year — especially now as the U.S. braces for interest rate hikes to cool inflation and for the possibility of a recession in the near to medium term. A recession is typically considered two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

“It is unfortunate that this GDP rate did not meet expectations, but unsurprising as the U.S. economy remains very volatile with geopolitical turbulence from the war in Ukraine, a global supply chain crisis, increasing inflation and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic,” Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group, said in an email. “All of these factors have shrunk GDP growth rates around the globe.”

References:

  1. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q1-us-gdp-gross-domestic-product-economic-activity-190926750.html

Stimulus, Inflation, Unsustainable Debt and America | Fidelity Investments and Peterson Foundation

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“America has been on an unsustainable fiscal path for many years, since long before this pandemic.” The Peter G. Peterson Foundation

  • The new $1.9 trillion stimulus spending package, on top of trillions already spent to revive the economy, is driving the national debt to unprecedented levels.
  • History shows that high government debt often leads to inflation, and an uptick in inflation is expected this year as the economy recovers.

The $1.9 trillion federal stimulus package will help many families, businesses, and state and local governments hard hit by the pandemic. But it is also fueling concerns about the ballooning federal debt, inflation, and how investors can protect themselves.

The Congressional Budget Office projected that the federal budget deficit will rise during the second half of the decade and climb steadily over the following 20 years.  By 2051, the federal debt is expected to double as a share of the economy.

The projections by the nonpartisan office forecast a more challenging long-term outlook, as interest costs on the national debt rise and federal spending on health programs swells along with an aging population.  “A growing debt burden could increase the risk of a fiscal crisis and higher inflation as well as undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar, making it more costly to finance public and private activity in international markets,” the CBO report said.

Our federal fiscal budget has structural problems, driven by well-known and predictable factors that include an aging population, rising healthcare costs and compounding interest—along with insufficient revenues to meet our commitments, according to The Peter G. Peterson Foundation.

Over the last 20 years, the federal government’s debt has grown faster than at any time since the end of World War II, running well ahead of economic growth. In addition to COVID-related spending, rising federal debt has been driven by longer-term trends including increasing Social Security and Medicare spending for an aging population. Today, according to the Congressional Budget Office, the federal debt is $22.5 trillion, more than 100% of gross domestic product (GDP).

Why debt matters

New Fidelity research suggests that higher debt can slow economic growth, and ultimately lead to higher inflation and more volatile financial markets. Warns Dirk Hofschire, senior vice president of asset allocation research at Fidelity Investments: “Debt in the world’s largest economies is fast becoming the most substantial risk in investing today.”

In the short term, Fidelity’s director of global macro Jurrien Timmer says a market consensus has emerged that inflation will rise in the second half of 2021: “An inflationary boom could result from the combination of COVID infections falling, vaccinations rising, ongoing massive fiscal stimulus, pent-up consumer demand, and low interest rates.”

FEDERAL DEBT IS ON AN UNSUSTAINABLE PATH

Longer term, Hofschire says, “The rise in debt is unsustainable. Historically, no country has perpetually increased its debt/GDP ratio. The highest levels of debt all topped out around 250% of GDP. Since 1900, 18 countries have hit a debt/GDP level of 100%, generally due to the need to pay for fighting world wars or extreme economic downturns such as the Great Depression. After hitting the 100% threshold, 10 countries reduced their debt, 7 increased it, and one kept its level of debt roughly the same.”

Only time will tell which way the US goes and when. But Hofschire thinks “government policies are likely to drift toward more inflationary options.” Among them:

  • Federal spending aimed at lower- and middle-income consumers
  • Increased public works spending not offset by higher taxes
  • Protectionist measures with a “made in America” rationale
  • Infrastructure upgrades targeting sectors such as renewable energy, 5G telecom, and health care
  • Higher inflation targeting by the Federal Reserve
  • Mandatory pay increases for workers benefiting from government assistance

In the longer term, if further free-spending fiscal policies are adopted while interest rates stay low and credit remains abundant, the likelihood of inflation could increase. But history suggests the magnitude and timing is uncertain. Many predicted an inflation surge the last time the federal government embarked on major fiscal and monetary stimulus after the global financial crisis, but inflation mostly failed to appear.

THE GROWING DEBT IS CAUSED BY A STRUCTURAL MISMATCH BETWEEN SPENDING AND REVENUES according to The Peterson Foundation

Why the national debt matters, according the The Peter G. Peterson Foundation:

  • High and rising federal debt matters because it reduces the county’s flexibility to plan for and respond to urgent crises.
  • Debt matters because growing interest costs make it harder to invest in our future — to build and sustain infrastructure, enhance education and support an economy that creates job growth and rising wages.
  • Debt matters because it threatens the safety net — critical programs like Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, SNAP and Unemployment Compensation are essential lifelines for the most vulnerable populations.
  • Debt matters because America faces emerging and ongoing challenges that will require fiscal resources to keep the country safe, secure and strong — challenges like socioeconomic injustice, climate change, affordable health care, wealth and income inequality, international conflicts and an increasingly complex and competitive global economy.
  • Debt matters because the nation should care about its children and grandchildren. Borrowing more and more today reduces the opportunities and prosperity of the next generation.

The U.S. faces a range of complex, unprecedented health, economic and societal challenges, set against the backdrop of a poor fiscal outlook that was irresponsible and unsustainable before the crisis.

Building a brighter future for the next generation must become an essential priority for America, and the high cost of this health and economic crisis only makes that challenge more urgent. Once America has emerged from the pandemic, it will be more important than ever for its elected leaders to address the unsustainable fiscal outlook and manage the burgeoning national debt, to ensure that America is more prepared, better positioned for growth, and able to meet its moral obligation to future generations.

References:

  1. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57038
  2. https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/personal-finance/government-spending-2021?ccsource=email_weekly
  3. https://www.pgpf.org/what-does-the-national-debt-mean-for-americas-future

* The Peter G. Peterson Foundation is a non-profit, non-partisan organization that is dedicated to increasing public awareness of the nature and urgency of key fiscal challenges threatening America’s future, and to accelerating action on them. To address these challenges successfully, we work to bring Americans together to find and implement sensible, long-term solutions that transcend age, party lines and ideological divides in order to achieve real results.

The Economic Cost of Black Inequality in the U.S. | Citigroup

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Racism stymies national economic growth and is bad financially for business

“We’re in the midst of a national reckoning on race, and words are not enough.  We need awareness, education and action that drive results.”  Mark Mason, Chief Financial Officer of Citigroup

Citigroup research found that if the U.S. could instantly end the most severe forms of economic discrimination against African Americans, it could give the economy a $5 trillion boost to gross domestic product (GDP) over the next five years.

Racial inequalities shaved about $16 trillion from U.S. GDP

During the past 20 years, race-based inequalities shaved about $16 trillion from GDP, Citigroup estimated in a CLOSING THE RACIAL INEQUALITY GAPS: The Economic Cost of Black Inequality in the U.S. study. Citigroup said it “studied the costs of lost wages, fewer opportunities for higher education and less access to home and small-business loans” for African Americans.

“What this report underscores is that this tariff is levied on us all and, particularly in the U.S., that cost has a real and tangible impact on our country’s economic output,” Citigroup Vice Chairman Raymond J. McGuire said in the report. “We have a responsibility and an opportunity to confront this longstanding societal ill.”

Furthermore, today in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, Black, Latin, and Native Americans have been hospitalized for COVID-19 at a disproportionately high rate, a direct result of what the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has identified as “long-standing systemic health and social inequities.” Blacks and People of Color are also bearing a disproportionate share of the pandemic’s economic devastation.

Citigroup believes that they, as a major U.S. financial institution, “have a responsibility to address complex societal questions” and “to address current events and to frame them with an economic lens in order to highlight the real costs of longstanding discrimination against minority groups, especially against Black people and particularly in the U.S.”

Four key racial gaps for Blacks

The analysis in the report shows that if four key racial gaps for Blacks —wages, education, housing, and investment — were closed 20 years ago, $16 trillion
could have been added to the U.S. economy. And if the gaps are closed today, $5 trillion can be added to U.S. GDP over the next five years.  The Citi study assessed that:

  • Closing the Black racial wage gap 20 years ago might have provided an additional $2.7 trillion in income available for consumption and investment.
  • Improving access to housing credit might have added an additional 770,000 Black homeowners over the last 20 years, with combined sales and expenditures adding another $218 billion to GDP over that time.
  • Facilitating increased access to higher education (college, graduate, and vocational schools) for Black students might have bolstered lifetime incomes that in aggregate sums to $90 to $113 billion.
  • Providing fair and equitable lending to Black entrepreneurs might have resulted in the creation of an additional $13 trillion in business revenue over the last 20 years. This could have been used for investments in labor, technology, capital equipment, and structures and 6.1 million jobs might have been created per year.

Closing the wage, housing, education, and business investment racial gaps can help narrow the wealth gap, which is significant for facilitating homeownership, business, and job creation, plus establishing a pipeline for intergenerational wealth accumulation.

It’s hoped that Citigroup’s study brings perspective that collectively Americans can find substantive and sustainable opportunities to address the racial inequality gaps identified in the research.

References:

  1. https://www.americanbanker.com/articles/citigroup-vows-to-become-antiracist-review-internal-policies‘
  2. https://ir.citi.com/NvIUklHPilz14Hwd3oxqZBLMn1_XPqo5FrxsZD0x6hhil84ZxaxEuJUWmak51UHvYk75VKeHCMI%3D