Chinese Cheating on Trade

There should be no doubt in the minds of Americans that China has not been living up to the obligations and continues to ignore the rules of the World Trade Organizations (WTO) on bilateral trade with the U.S. and global trade with Western trading partners. For decades, the Chinese Communist centrally managed capitalist economy has been subsidizing inefficient domestic industries, dumping cheaply produced goods such as steel and iron on global markets, and erecting barriers to protect their domestic markets from foreign goods and services.

And, the U.S. and Western governments and global corporations, for decades, have taken the three monkeys approach to confronting China of “see no evil, hear no evil and speak no evil” to addressing the unfair trading practices. The inept response from governments and large corporations are because of the desire to access the lucrative and rapidly growing Chinese domestic market. Over the decades, this approached has proved an ineffective strategy and has only encouraged additional bad behavior and strong arming by the Chinese.

Despite Chinese Communist Party leaders’ continued denials of the bad behavior, there is no doubt that China is coercing the transfer of U.S. and Western technology, and stealing Western Intellectual Property (IP). Again, over the past several decades, Chinese rapid rise to becoming the world’s second largest economy by GDP and their rapid technological advancements as a global leader in artificial intelligence can be directly contributed to their successful pilfering of IP and forcing technology transfers.

Additionally, for decades, multiple U.S. administrations have avoided directly confronting the Chinese regarding their unfair trading practices and outright theft IP and forced technology transfers. The current U.S. – China trade reality is a result of policies of appeasement by administrations of both parties.

The Chinese have deliberately practiced bilateral and multilateral trade in a manner that have created an un-level and unfair trade environment built on theft, coercion, subsidies of domestic enterprises and dumping excesses below market priced goods on global markets that effectively decimates competition.

Companies Cut Back, but Consumers Party On, Driving the Economy – The New York Times

American consumers are energetically engaged in a spendathon. American businesses, by contrast, are not.

Businesses and households swim in the same economic soup and their outlooks — gloomy or bright — are usually in sync. But in recent months, the two seem to occupy opposite ends of a teeter-totter, with consumers continuing to spend while business owners and managers are chastened by doubt and uncertainty.

The economic expansion has extended its record run despite this curious divergence. The question is how long it can continue.

— Read on www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/business/economy/economy-consumers-business.html

2019 is shaping up to be one of the best years ever for investing |CNBC

This could be the first year ever where stocks, bonds, gold and crude oil all returned double digits, according to LPL Financial.

The S&P 500 has returned nearly 22% in 2019 while gold and crude are sporting returns of 16.1% and 17.8%, respectively. Treasuries are right on the cusp, with the the 10-year Treasury note up more than 9%

Through Wednesday’s close, just 75 stocks in the S&P 500 were down for the year while 361 were up at least 10%.

Assets have gotten a boost from lower Federal Reserve rates as well as generally strong consumer spending.

apple.news/Abj06unJ3Spyw9e2vT69CyQ

Retirement Planning: The Big Lesson of 2016 for Investors | Money

Don’t let the constant flow of predictions and prognostications about the markets and the economy—no matter how prescient they may seem—divert you from a comprehensive plan designed to achieve success over the long term.

If you’ve ever been inclined to try to improve your retirement prospects by closely tracking the financial news and then shifting your strategy to stay a step ahead of the market’s twists and turns, 2016 seemed to provide a bounty of opportunities.

— Read on money.com/money/4618089/big-lesson-from-2016-retirement-planning-investing/

JP Morgan CEO Dimon…U.S. Consumers Remain Strong

JP Morgan (JPM) released its quarterly earnings yesterday beating The Street estimates.

During the earnings call, JPM Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon commented that, “the consumer remains healthy with growth in wages and spending, combined with strong balance sheets and low unemployment levels.” He also indicated that economic growth appears to be in slowing and U.S. – China tensions continue to be a drag on growth. (https://bit.ly/2ML9qO6)

CEO Dimon’s positive view of the U.S. economy and consumer stands in sharp contrast to the prevailing mood on both Wall Street and Main Street regarding the immediate future and direction of the U.S. economy. Many individuals in the financial industry and also retail investors are skittish and fleeing from growth to safety in their investment portfolios.

The proverbial elephant in the room is whether the economy is headed into a recession the business cycle that is long in the tooth. According to CEO Dimon, there will be a recession sometime in the the future, but probably not in calendar year 2020 or the next six to eighteen months.

www.cnbc.com/2019/10/15/reuters-america-update-2-jpmorgan-beats-profit-estimates-on-strength-in-bond-trading-underwriting.html

Consumers Won’t Be Able to Save the Economy Much Longer – Bloomberg

Falling interest rates are likely to deter spending and boost savings rates, further weighing on growth.

A weakening economy may soon hurt consumers.  

 With the unemployment rate at a 50-year low, the hope is that the U.S. consumer will more than offset an otherwise faltering economy. Don’t bet on it.

Clearly, the broad economy is not only weak, but weakening. The yield curve has inverted, with 10-year Treasury note yields falling below two-year yields. Every time that’s happened in the post-war era, a recession has followed if it hadn’t already commenced. No exceptions.

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis reports that the lower real interest rates are at the time of inversion, the longer the recession and the higher the unemployment rate climbs. The real 10-year yield is minus 0.13%, even lower than the 2.2% that preceded the 2007-2009 Great Recession.

— Read on www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-14/consumers-won-t-be-able-to-save-the-economy-much-longer

Recession Risk

Many economists and financial analysts insist that a recession is unlikely in the next twelve to eighteen months. They cite data that indicates that the consumers are healthy. The economic data shows that American consumers all have jobs, they are working in record numbers and their wages are growing. And, they’re spending.

Additionally, consumers are tuning out the financial entertainment media unending talk about recession, tariff tensions and inverted yield curve. Since, one of the biggest risk to the economy is the possibility that Americans become overly concern about their financial well-being and self talk the economy into a recession.

Furthermore, history reveals that an inverted yield curve has preceded every recession; it, however, has not predicted every recession.