Tag Archives: Economy

Recession Causes

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Recessions occur typically when the demand for goods and services starts declining rapidly and steadily.

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity that lasts for months or even years. Experts declare a recession when a nation’s economy experiences negative gross domestic product (GDP), rising levels of unemployment, falling retail sales, and contracting measures of income and manufacturing for an extended period of time.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally defines the starting and ending dates of U.S. recessions. NBER’s definition of a recession is when “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”

Unemployment rate. NBER-dated recessions in gray. (Cart below)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

There is more than one cause for a recession to get started, from a sudden economic shock to fallout from uncontrolled inflation. According to Forbes Advisors, some of the main drivers of a recession are:

  • A sudden economic shock: An economic shock is a surprise problem that creates serious financial damage. In the 1970s, OPEC cut off the supply of oil to the U.S. without warning, causing a recession. The coronavirus outbreak, which shut down economies worldwide, is a more recent example of a sudden economic shock.
  • Excessive debt: When individuals or businesses take on too much debt, the cost of servicing the debt can grow to the point where they can’t pay their bills. Growing debt defaults and bankruptcies then capsize the economy. The housing bubble in 2007-8 that led to the Great Recession is a prime example of excessive debt causing a recession.
  • Asset bubbles: When investing decisions are driven by emotion, bad economic outcomes aren’t far behind. Investors can become too optimistic during a strong economy. Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan famously referred to this tendency as “irrational exuberance”. Irrational exuberance inflates stock market or real estate bubbles—and when the bubbles pop, panic selling can crash the market, causing a recession.
  • Too much inflation: Inflation is the steady, upward trend in prices over time. Inflation isn’t a bad thing per se, but excessive inflation is a dangerous phenomenon. Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, control inflation by raising interest rates, and higher interest rates depress economic activity. Out-of-control inflation was an ongoing problem in the U.S. in the 1970s. To break the cycle, the Federal Reserve rapidly raised interest rates, which caused a recession.
  • Too much deflation: While runaway inflation can create a recession, deflation can be even worse. Deflation is when prices decline over time, which causes wages to contract, which further depresses prices. When a deflationary feedback loop gets out of hand, people and business stop spending, which undermines the economy. Central banks and economists have few tools to fix the underlying problems that cause deflation.
  • Technological change: New inventions increase productivity and help the economy over the long term, but there can be short-term periods of adjustment to technological breakthroughs. In the 19th century, there were waves of labor-saving technological improvements. The Industrial Revolution made entire professions obsolete, sparking recessions and hard times.

According to NBER data, from 1945 to 2009, the average recession lasted 11 months. Over the past 22 years, the U.S. has gone through three recessions:

  • The Covid-19 Recession. The most recent recession began in February 2020 and lasted only two months, making it the shortest U.S. recession in history.
  • The Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009). The Great Recession was caused in part by a bubble in the real estate market. It lasted 18 months, almost double the length of recent U.S. recessions.
  • The Dot Com Recession (March 2001 to November 2001). At the turn of the millennium, the U.S. was facing several major economic problems, including fallout from the tech bubble crash and accounting scandals at companies like Enron, capped off by the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Together these troubles drove a brief recession, from which the economy quickly bounced back.

If there’s a silver lining, it’s that recessions do not last forever.

References:

  1. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/what-is-a-recession/
  2. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/economics/business-cycle/
  3. https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating

The 2% Solution: Driving Action for Real Change l

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“The problems of racial injustice and economic injustice cannot be solved without a radical redistribution of political and economic power.” ~ Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

The 2% Solution grew from the idea that lasting, generational change is possible only through a major investment by U.S. companies in economic justice and development for Black communities.

Inequitable access to capital has impeded the ability of Black entrepreneurs to maintain positive cash flow and cover operating costs in their businesses, explains Robert F. Smith, Founder, Chairman and CEO of Vista Equity Partners.

A key factor in this disparity is the lack of major financial institutions in Black communities.

“Only 53% of Black households are properly banked, compared to 80% of white households.”

As a result, Black business owners often rely on Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs) and Minority Depository Institutions (MDIs) for support. However, these institutions are also often underfunded and lack modernized and digital systems.

Supporting CDFIs and MDIs is one of the key pillars of the 2 Percent Solution. By investing capital in these institutions, we’re also investing in Black entrepreneurs and businesses.

The 2 Percent Solution asks U.S. companies to invest 2% of their annual profits over the next 10 years into communities where systematic inequities have hindered progress, says Smith. These investments aren’t acts of charity. They are reparative, enabling lasting generational change and bringing economic justice for Black communities.

“I think that [The 2% Solution] will show Americans there is hope, there is an opportunity for the American dream to now be revitalized. And frankly, to give us all confidence that we can actually make this a better country and a better place to live.” ~ Robert F. Smith, Forbes 400 Summit on Philanthropy

The 2% Solution has the ability to make lasting change in Black communities with a focus on four main pillars of action where an investment’s impact would be long-lasting and broadly felt within the Black community. These main pillars are:

  • Supporting CDFIs & MDIs
  • Healthcare
  • Education
  • Technology and the Digital Divide

The 2% Solution will benefit all Americans. A 2019 McKinsey Global Institute analysis found that eliminating the racial wealth gap would generate $1.5 trillion in GDP, and we can use The 2% Solution to help close the gap between Black and white households.  

References:

  1. https://robertsmith.com/2-percent-solution/
  2. https://robertsmith.com/about-robert-f-smith/

Inflation Swindles Almost Everybody

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“If you feel you can dance in and out of securities in a way that defeats the inflation tax, I would like to be your broker — but not your partner.” Warren Buffett

During 2022 Berkshire-Hathaway’s annual shareholders meeting, chairman and CEO Warren Buffett stated, ‘Inflation swindles almost everybody’. Inflation is the decline of purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, the U.S. unit of currency. The rising prices of goods and services, often expressed as the inflation rate, means that a unit of currency effectively buys less than it did in prior years.

Buffett commented that inflation “swindles” equity investors. He elaborated that: “Inflation swindles the bond investor, too. It swindles the person who keeps their cash under their mattress. It swindles almost everybody.” Since inflation is largely a result of loose fiscal and monetary policy. This policy artificially inflated demand and effectively caused a supply/demand imbalance — the cure for which was rising prices to try and lower demand.

He stated that inflation also raises the amount of capital that companies need and that raising prices to maintain inflation-adjusted profits is not as simple as it may seem.

In Buffett’s opinion, “only gains in purchasing power represent real earnings on investment. If you (a) forego 10 hamburgers to purchase an investment; (b) receive dividends which, after tax, buy two hamburgers; and (c) receive, upon sale of your holdings, after-tax proceeds that will buy eight hamburgers, then (d) you have had no real income from your investment, no matter how much it appreciated in dollars. You may feel richer, but you won’t eat richer.”

Additionally, “High rates of inflation create a tax on capital that makes much corporate investment unwise – at least if measured by the criterion of a positive real investment return to owners”, states Buffett.

In a 1977 Fortune magazine article, Buffett conveyed his views on inflation: “The arithmetic makes it plain that inflation is a far more devastating tax than anything that has been enacted by our legislatures. The inflation tax has a fantastic ability to simply consume capital.”

He opined that the best protection against inflation is investing in your own skills.

During the shareholder’s meeting, Buffett observed that massive fiscal and monetary economic stimuli during the COVID-19 pandemic are the major reason for high inflation today: “You print loads of money, and money is going to be worth less.”

Buffett views inflation as a necessary consequence of the massive fiscal and monetary stimuli, which “artificially inflated demand and effectively caused a supply/demand imbalance”, to get the U.S. out of what could have been a COVID-19 induced depression.

“In my book, Jay Powell is a hero,” Buffett stated. “It’s very simple, he did what he had to do.”

References:

  1. https://www.investopedia.com/berkshire-hathaway-2022-annual-meeting-and-q1-earnings-5270362
  2. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-lessons-from-what-buffett-didnt-say-at-berkshire-hathaways-shareholder-meeting
  3. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation.asp
  4. https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/04/warren-buffett-secret-to-getting-rich-is-simpler/
  5. https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/27/3-timeless-warren-buffett-lessons-to-apply-right-n/
  6. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/12/warren-buffett-explains-how-to-invest-in-stocks-when-inflation-rises.html
  7. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/worried-about-inflation-heres-what-warren-buffett-says-berkshire-hathaway-is-doing/ar-AAWNjq6?ocid=uxbndlbing

U.S. GDP Contracted for the First Time since 2020Q2

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A recession is typically considered two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

U.S. economic activity contracted for the first time since mid-2020, with lingering supply chain constraints, inflation at its hottest rate since the early 1980s, expected interest rate increases announced by the Fed, and disruptions amid Russia’s war in Ukraine weighing on economic growth.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its initial estimate of first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).

The main metrics from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg, are:

  • GDP annualized, quarter-over-quarter: -1.4% vs. 1.0% expected, 6.9% in Q4
  • Personal Consumption: 2.7% vs. 3.5% expected, 2.5% in Q4
  • Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, quarter-over-quarter: 5.2% vs. 5.5% expected, 5.0% in Q4

What does the metrics all mean?

The economic metrics are important indicators of the state of the U.S. economy at the start of this calendar year — especially now as the U.S. braces for interest rate hikes to cool inflation and for the possibility of a recession in the near to medium term. A recession is typically considered two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

“It is unfortunate that this GDP rate did not meet expectations, but unsurprising as the U.S. economy remains very volatile with geopolitical turbulence from the war in Ukraine, a global supply chain crisis, increasing inflation and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic,” Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group, said in an email. “All of these factors have shrunk GDP growth rates around the globe.”

References:

  1. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q1-us-gdp-gross-domestic-product-economic-activity-190926750.html

Don’t Fight the Fed

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“We continue to believe that the S&P will see a correction of at least 20% over the next one to two years as the Fed is more aggressive than expected to deal with inflation running higher than expected and easy money begins to decrease.” Dan Niles

“The markets are in a volatile and dangerous place as of now,” writes Dan Niles, founder and portfolio manager for the Satori Fund.

In his article entitled “Market Thoughts Following Q1”, Niles contends that investors heed the warning: “Don’t Fight the Fed”.

He states that “Investors are forgetting that it [Don’t Fight the Fed] works on the way down as well as the way up. The Federal Reserve (The Fed) expanded their balance sheet by $4.8 trillion since the start of the pandemic while the US government added ~$5.5 trillion in stimulus. Combined stimulus of roughly half of US GDP of $20.5 trillion is the major driver of why the prices of stocks (along with homes, cars, boats, crypto, art, NFTs, etc) all went up over the past two years during a global pandemic. Now, the Fed dot plot shows 10 rate hikes in less than two years and they will be cutting trillions off the balance sheet probably starting on May 4th along with a 50 bps rate hike.”

“The #1 concern for investors in 2022 should continue to be that the Fed is so far behind the curve on dealing with inflation that they will have to be much more aggressive than in prior tightening cycles despite high inflation & geopolitical risk.” Dan Niles

“We [Satori Fund] continue to believe that the S&P will see a correction of at least 20% over the next one to two years as the Fed is more aggressive than expected to deal with inflation running higher than expected and easy money begins to decrease. Since World War II,

  1. Every time Inflation (CPI) is over 5% a recession has occurred
  2. Every time oil prices have doubled relative to the prior 2-year average ($54 in this case) a recession has occurred
  3. 10 of the 13 prior recessions have been preceded by a tightening cycle by the Fed
  4. 10 of the last 13 recessions have been preceded by the 10-year yield going below the 2-year yield”

For retail investors, Niles recommends “cash until inflation, Fed tightening and economic slowing run their course over the next one to two years. He writes that “most of the time, cash is a terrible investment especially in a high inflationary environment, but it is better to lose 6-7% to inflation this year than 20%+ in a stock market drop. With the Fed being this far behind the curve on inflation, we will find out how much froth is in valuations as the Fed starts tightening as growth continues to slow.”

Satori Fund likes companies that

  1. Benefit from economic reopening (not pandemic beneficiaries);
  2. Are profitable with good cash flow;
  3. Have growth but at a reasonable price;
  4. Benefit from higher-than-average inflation;
  5. Benefit from multi-year secular tailwinds. 

They foresee investing tailwinds in:

  • Datacenter, office enterprise, and 5G infrastructure.
  • Reopening plays such as airlines, cruise lines, travel, rideshare, and dating services as people adjust to covid becoming endemic.
  • Banks which should benefit from higher interest rates.
  • Alternative energy as geopolitics and fallout from the Russia-Ukraine War drives investment in the space.

References:

  1. https://www.danniles.com/articles

Wall Street Driving Up Rents and Housing Prices

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The government has estimated that the nation is short about 4 million homes, and that number is likely growing.

A good examples of just how wild the housing market has become in Florida, look no further than the city of St. Augustine. A property has been on the market for thirty days with a disgustingly steep price considering the home’s exceptionally run-down (think ugly shabby) condition.

Asking price $349K on Zillow

This house is listed as a “Major fixer upper!!! Property to be sold AS-IS” on Zillow. It’s a 448-square-foot, one-bedroom, one-bath home that has definitely seen better days. The asking price is a whopping $349,000.

With housing in such short supply, Wall Street saw an opportunity, and began buying modest, single-family houses. Once bought, they rent them out. In places like Jacksonville, Atlanta, Charlotte, investors are buying almost 30% of the homes that are available for regular home buyers.

These Wall Street companies come in and buy a home, paying at or above market price for the home. And then, they set a market rent, charging 30%-40% higher rent than the previous owner asked.

References:

  1. https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2022/03/24/want-to-buy-a-fixer-upper-in-st-augustine-this-1-bedroom-house-is-for-sale-for-349000/
  2. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/112-Moore-St-Saint-Augustine-FL-32084/47777206_zpid/

Taxes: Income and Property

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“In this world, nothing is certain except death and taxes.” Ben Franklin

After-tax income inequality has grown over the long term. Between 1979 and 2018, the share of aggregate after-tax income of the top 1% of households grew significantly from 7.4% to 13.6%. In contrast, the shares for the bottom 90 percent of households declined. Tax Policy CenterWealth inequality has also widened. The average white household had $402,000 in unrealized capital gains in 2019, compared with $94,000 for Black households and $130,000 for Hispanic or Latino households. These disparities have generally widened over time. Tax Policy Center

Virtually all families hold some amount of financial assets, broadly defined as brokerage, checking, savings and retirement accounts to name a few. While 98% of families held checking or savings accounts in 2019, only 50% of families held retirement accounts and 15% owned stocks. Tax Policy Center

Salaries and wages are the largest sources of income for most households. In 2018, they comprised 68% of total adjusted gross income across all individual income tax returns, but only 17% for those with incomes over $10 million. Tax Policy Center

Income from capital gains made up about 8% of aggregate adjusted gross income (AGI) in 2018, but this varied by income level. For those with AGI over $10 million, capital gains accounted for nearly half of their income. Tax Policy Center

In 2019, the median net worth for those with college degrees was four times higher than for those with high school diplomas and nearly 15 times higher than for those without high school diplomas. Tax Policy Center

Overall, the share of US families with education loan debt went from 9% in 1989 to 21% in 2019. About 30% of Black families had education loan debt in 2019, compared with 20% of White families and 14% of Latino families. Tax Policy Center

Federal taxes are moderately progressive overall. In 2018, the top 1% had 16.6% of total income before taxes and 13.6% after taxes. Contrastingly, the lowest quintile had 3.8% before taxes and 7.1% after taxes. Tax Policy Center

In fiscal year 2019, state and local governments raised $577 billion in property taxes. As a share of general revenue, New Hampshire relied the most on property tax revenue (36%) whereas Alabama and New Mexico relied the least (7%). Tax Policy Center

State and local taxes as a share of income ranged from 7% in Tennessee to 15% in North Dakota in 2019. This does not measure comparative tax burdens on states’ residents because it includes taxes on business activities borne by residents of other states. Tax Policy Center

Total tax revenue (including federal, state, and local taxes) as a share of GDP was 24.5% for the US in 2019. Tax Policy Center

Wealthier Americans may be more stressed regarding inflation, economic uncertainty and market volatility, but lower-income Americans have much more to fear from rising prices and are experiencing greater daily impact to their wallets. They tend to have less financial cushion to handle higher prices for food, gas, and other necessities, according to the Tax Policy Center.

The above financial inequality and tax snippets are interesting facts/information garnered from the nonprofit Tax Policy Center.

References:

  1. https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/fiscal-fact/top-1-income
  2. https://www.axios.com/wealth-inflation-fears-money-financial-assets-52779e2d-8940-4b87-85cd-29c65744fb29.html

How the Economy Works by Ray Dalio

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“Credit is important because it means borrowers can increase their spending. This is fundamental because one person’s spending is another person’s income.” Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio is one of most successful hedge fund managers and founder of Bridgewater Associates. He credits much of his success to guiding principles that he has used to make decisions both in his professional and in his personal life.

How the Economic Machine Works – “The economy is like a machine. At the most fundamental level it is a relatively simple machine, yet it is not well understood,” explains Ray Dalio.

Economic principles discussed:

  • Economy – The economy is simply the sum of all transactions repeated again and again over a long period of time. Money and credit account for the total spending in an economy.
  • Transactions – the exchange of money or credit between a buyer and seller for goods, services or financial assets.
  • Markets – “All buyers and sellers making transactions represent the market. For example, we have wheat markets, stock markets, steel markets, oil markets and so on.The combination of all of these sub-markets is the entire market, or the entire economy.” Ray Dalio
  • Governments – the biggest buyer and seller of goods, services and financial assets. The government consists of two parts: the central government that collect taxes and spend money; and, the central bank which controls the amount of money flowing through the economy. It does this by influencing interest rates and printing more money.
  • Central Bank – The Central Bank can only buy financial assets, not goods and services. To support the economy, the Central Bank buys Government bonds which gives the Central Government the ability to buy goods and service.
  • Price – the result of total spending / quantity sold.
  • Credit – Credit “is the most important part of the economy because it is the biggest and most volatile part”. Credit can be created out of thin air — in fact, in 2016, the US$50 trillion of the US$53 trillion in the economy was credit, as opposed to ‘real’ money. Credit is important because it means borrowers can increase their spending. This is fundamental because one person’s spending is another person’s income. Credit is bad when it finances over-consumption and borrowers are unable to pay the debt back.
  • Lenders – lend money to make more of it. When lenders believe borrowers will repay, credit is created.
  • Borrowers – borrowing is pulling spending forward which relates to borrowing money to buy something you can’t afford, such as a house, a car, a business or stocks. Borrowers promise to repay the amount borrowed (the principal) with interest. Borrowing creates cycles.
  • Debt – Debt allows you to consume more than you produce when it is acquired, and forces you to consume less when you have to pay it back. “When credit is issued it becomes debt. It’s a liability for the borrower, and an asset for the lender. It disappears when the transaction is settled.
  • Interest Rates – When interest rates are high, borrowing is low. When interest rates are low, borrowing is high.
  • Spending – one person’s spending is another person’s income. Total spending is the sum of money spent plus of credit spent.
  • Income – one person’s spending is another person’s income
  • Monetary Cycles – economy expansion and recession cycles.
  • Inflation – inflation is when prices rise. When spending is faster than the production of goods, it means that we have more demand than supply, which results in inflation.
  • Deflation – when spending decreases, prices tend to decline.
  • Expansion – growing markets and increasing transactions
  • Recession – Economic activity decreases, and if unchecked this can lead to a recession.
  • Bubbles – when the price of assets far exceed the value of the assets
  • Debt Burden – When incomes grow in relation to debt, things are kept in balance. But a debt burden emerges when debt growth exceeds income growth. This debt to income ratio is the debt burden.
  • Productivity – innovation and hard working raises productivity, which equates to the amount of goods and services produced.

Three rules of thumb for life

Source: Ray Dalio

According to Dalio, there are “three rules of thumb” with which to navigate the economy, be it in your own businesses, organisations you work at or your personal finances.

  1. Don’t have debt rise faster than income (because debt burdens will eventually crush you).
  2. Don’t have income rise faster than productivity — it will eventually render you uncompetitive.
  3. Do all you can to raise productivity — in the long run that’s what matters most.

References:

  1. https://www.nofilter.media/posts/ray-dalios-economic-machine-12-minute-summary
  2. https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1501124021/ref=as_li_qf_asin_il_tl_nodl?

Biden Administration’s Fossil Fuel Policies Raised Gas Prices

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Benchmark crude oil prices have surged to $115 per barrel.

The ‘pre-Russian invasion of Ukraine’ rise in gas prices has been the tax Americans pay at the pump for Biden’s administration pro-climate and anti-fossil fuel policies.

Upon taking office in January 2021, the Biden administration implemented policies and regulations that have been extremely detrimental to the exploration, production and investment in domestic fossil fuel energy:

  • They rejoined the Paris climate agreement,
  • They terminated the Keystone XL pipeline,
  • They suspended all oil and gas leases in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
  • They began working on his pledge to ban all “new oil and gas permitting on public lands and waters.”

The Biden administration entered office promising to “end fossil fuel” and signaled a hostility to the fossil fuel industry with a major push for clean energy, including a pledge to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50 percent of 2005 levels by 2030. The result has been that investment, exploration and production has fallen across the oil and gas industry within the U.S.

When you announce your intention to tax and regulate the fossil fuel industry out of existence, investors, along with fossil fuel executives and corporate boards listened, writes Marc A. Thiessen, in a Washington Post opinion piece. The results are less production and capital investment — and higher prices.

Considering that the price of gasoline never rose above $3.04 in the year prior to Biden taking office. Once Biden entered office, gasoline prices broke that threshold in four months — long before Putin invaded Ukraine and economic sanctions were imposed on Russian energy.

Entrepreneur Elon Musk — the founder of the electric car company Tesla — says we need to drill for more oil and gas at in the United States to alleviate world wide pressure on crude oil supplies brought on by the ban of Russian oil exports.

Many billionaire investors, such as Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett, believe that oil prices will continue to remain elevated in the coming quarters and are putting their reserves of capital were their long term investment beliefs are.

References:

  1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/10/biden-gas-prices-hides-behind-ukraine-suffering/
  2. https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/07/looks-like-warren-buffett-just-bet-big-on-an-oil-p/

Inflation…the Enemy of Savers

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Inflation is the enemy of those who save.

For most of the 21st century, savers and investors have experienced a favorable period of relative low inflation stock market growth. In fact, the average annual inflation rate from 2000 through 2021 was 2.31%. Even with that “low” inflation rate, the proverbial uninvested dollar hidden under one’s mattress in the year 2000 would be worth a mere $0.62 today.

With inflation approaching 7% in late 2021, we’re on the precipice of witnessing the rapid erosion in the value of the dollar which will create substantial risk for ordinary savers and ultra conservative investors. Keeping your money in a savings account, money market or CDs is failing to protect it from inflation.

Instead, the best place to invest is in the economy. While large sums of money are generally required to purchase real estate or a small business, the stock market allows those with limited capital a means to invest regularly in a wide variety of businesses and benefit from the strength of the economy.

The equity markets have a history of robust returns over the long run. Over the last one hundred years, the average annual stock market return is 10%. That means investors who stay invested are nearly doubling their investments every seven years.

Some individuals view the stock market as too risky and they literally view investing in the market as “gambling”. But, when you choose to use less “risky” investments like bonds rather than investing in stocks, the results vary great.

A study by NYU’s Stern School of Business gives insights into historical returns provided by an investment in U.S. Treasury bonds as opposed to corporate bonds and the S&P 500.

Assume an investor received a $300 inheritance on the day he was born. On that date, his parents invested $100 (the inflation-adjusted equivalent of $1,630 today) in several asset classes in 1928.

As of September of 2021, the above investor would have $8,920.90 in U.S. Treasury bonds, $53,736.50 from corporate bonds, and $592,868 in returns from an index fund that tracked the S&P 500.

Obviously, the stock market beats “safe” investments. While bonds might play an important role in a balanced portfolio, a 100% bond portfolio will fail to achieve the investment goals for most.

Investing a little now is better than a lot later

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” – Albert Einstein

A strong argument can be made that the amount of time one is in the market is of more importance than the sum invested in stocks.

Consistently timing the market is impossible. There literally is no human being who can claim that he or she has been successful at that task with any degree of honesty. However, timing the market is not only unachievable, attempting to time the market can lead to poor investment returns.

Over time, this would result in an ever-falling income stream. You spent your life buying stocks because they are a great source of return, that doesn’t stop just because you retire! The market is still the best source of future returns, you should be continuing to buy more, not sell!

If one largely invests in stocks with yields of 5% or more, you can receive a substantial annual income without cannibalizing your portfolio. Furthermore, if the average annual market return is 10%, a stock that yields in the high single digits does not need to appreciate markedly to provide market-beating returns.

Higher yield stocks outperform more often. They distribute cash on a recurring basis, whether share prices are up or down. Prices are volatile, and at the whims of emotional investors, dividends are the profit generated by the business and distributed to shareholders.

Any investor with an employer with matching contributions should take full advantage of that opportunity. Any investor with an employer with matching contributions should take full advantage of that opportunity.

By investing in dividend-bearing stocks and resisting the temptation to time the markets, you can be well on your way to building wealth and achieving financial freedom.

References:

  1. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484316-retirement-what-novice-investors-must-know