Tag Archives: Economy

Best Business to Own When Inflation Spikes

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Invest in asset-light businesses with pricing power.

In a letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, the best type of business to own when inflation spikes, according to Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett, have two characteristics that make a business well adapted to an inflationary environment:

  1. An ability to increase prices easily, and
  2. An ability to take on more business without having to spend too much in order to do it.

In other words, aim to invest in asset-light businesses with pricing power.

Buffett also stated that the best business to own is one that doesn’t require continuous reinvestment of capital because it becomes more and more expensive as the value of a dollar drops.

“The best businesses during inflation are the businesses that you buy once and then you don’t have to keep making capital investments subsequently,” Buffett said, adding that “any business with heavy capital investment tends to be a poor business to be in inflation and often it’s a poor business to be in generally.”

Businesses like utilities or railroads “keep eating up more and more money” and aren’t as profitable, he explained. He prefers to own companies that people have a connection to. That is why “a brand is a wonderful thing to own during inflation,” Buffett said. Owning part of “a wonderful business,” as Buffett said in 2009, is useful because no matter what happens with the value of the dollar, the business’ product will still be in demand.

Buffett also said that it’s particularly handy to own real estate during times of inflation because the purchase is a “one-time outlay” for the investor, and has the added benefit of being able to be resold.

Inflation quietly eats away at earnings and purchasing power.

When the economy exhibits strong economic growth, there is a higher demand for goods and services, which in effect increases prices of those goods and services; that’s attributed to inflation. Essentially, the rate of inflation increases when demand in the economy is higher than supply, causing an overall price rise.

Inflation also impacts money sitting in the bank. While you may be receiving interest on savings from a money market account, the growth of inflation can outpace that of the savings rate offered by the bank. Keeping all your savings in cash is warranting your liquid assets a definite loss to inflation.

Effectively, your money does not grow at a higher rate, but loses purchasing power over time compared to if it was properly invested in equity assets.

Inflation

“By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of [all] their citizens.” John Maynard Keynes

Inflation is tracked using the Consumer Price Index, known as the (CPI). This index, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics each month, measures the average change over time of prices consumers pay for goods and services.

The immediate effects of inflation are the changes in the behavior of consumption habits. In the long-term, inflation erodes the purchasing power of your income and accumulated wealth.

“Inflation reduces the ‘power’ of each dollar you have,” says Rob Isbitts, co-founder of The Hedged Investor in Weston, Florida. “A dollar is a dollar, but what it buys can be less in the future than it is today.”

Purchasing power risk – also known as inflation risk – is when the real interest rate, which accounts for adjusted inflation, shows the gain or loss in purchasing power.

“Inflation reduces the ‘power’ of each dollar you have,” says Rob Isbitts, co-founder of The Hedged Investor in Weston, Florida. “A dollar is a dollar, but what it buys can be less in the future than it is today.”

Assets That Protect Against Inflation

Inflation can pose a threat to investments since prices that increase over time can decrease the value of your savings.

And, financial experts agree that there is no way to fully protect your investments against inflation. Nonetheless, there are ways to help protect against this risk. These experts say having a substantial allocation to stocks is important for growth potential while offsetting against inflation risk.

In the long term, the stock market is expected to outperform the inflation rate. Stocks are commonly thought of as an inflation protection asset since, over time, stock performance will outpace inflation. These assets are seen as a hedge against inflation:

  • TIPS, or Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, which are bonds backed by the full faith of the U.S. government and protect against rising prices, make a very safe asset
  • REITs, or real estate investment trusts, are an organic hedge against inflation. When prices increase, real estate values increase as well. This asset is highly correlated with inflation, which means REIT returns are higher when inflation increases.
  • Gold is an asset that might provide protection against inflation and a good safeguard of inflation over the long run,

Inflation can significantly weaken your purchasing power and the performance of your investments and thus impact their value. That’s why acting to suppress the dangers of inflation is important to preserve the value of your cash flow and wealth in the long run.

References:

  1. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-says-best-type-195900081.html
  2. https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/how-inflation-and-deflation-impact-your-investments
  3. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/warren-buffett-inflation-best-businesses.html

Best Investment Advice – Mark Cuban

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“You can’t buy health and you can’t buy love.” Warren Buffett

“The best investment you can make is paying off your credit cards, paying off whatever debt you have.” Mark Cuban

Cuban lived for years on the budget of what he referred to as “a broke college student”, driving lousy cars, eating lousy food and saving, saving, saving. He believed that overspending can be an unnecessary cause of stress, and he advocates for living like a student if that’s all you can truly afford. “Your biggest enemies are your bills,” Cuban wrote. “The more you owe, the more you stress. The more you stress over bills, the more difficult it is to focus on your goals. The cheaper you can live, the greater your options.”

A forward-thinking investor and notorious taker of calculated risks, he built his wealth slowly over time and he derived as much pleasure out of saving as he did spending.

Here is top investing advice from Mark Cuban to builde wealth and achieve financial freedom:

  • Pay Off Debt, Then Invest – Paying off debt before you invest delivers the best returns for your money (capital). “The best investment you can make is paying off your credit cards, paying off whatever debt you have. If you have a student loan with a 7% interest rate, if you pay off that loan, you’re making 7%, that’s your immediate return, which is a lot safer than picking a stock, or trying to pick real estate, or whatever it may be,” Cuban said.
  • Never Invest To Get Out of Trouble – Just like you should never gamble if you absolutely have to win, the same rules apply to investing as a remedy for financial trouble. “If you are buying because you need the price to go up and solve a financial hole you are in, that is the EXACT WRONG time to trade,” Cuban commented. “And we all have to respect people who choose to sell because they need to. Bills don’t care what the market does. Get right and come back later.”
  • Don’t Invest In the Stock Market – Cuban disagrees with investors who think capitalism’s greatest wealth-generation machine is the stock market. “Put it in the bank. The idiots that tell you to put your money in the market because eventually it will go up need to tell you that because they are trying to sell you something. The stock market is probably the worst investment vehicle out there. If you won’t put your money in the bank, NEVER put your money in something where you don’t have an information advantage. Why invest your money in something because a broker told you to? If the broker had a clue, he/she wouldn’t be a broker, they would be on a beach somewhere.”
  • But If You Invest in the Stock Market, Buy an Index Fund – Avoid picking your own stocks or buying into expensive mutual funds — buy an index fund. “For those investors not too knowledgeable about markets, the best bet is a cheap S&P 500 fund,” according to Cuban.
  • Buy a Stock You Believe In and Hold on for Dear Life – Ignore short term volatility and market gyrations. “When I buy a stock, I make sure I know why I[‘m] buying it. Then I HODL until … I learn that something has changed,” using text-slang acronym for “hold on for dear life.”
  • Take Risks — But Play It Safe 90% of the Time – Without risk, there can be no reward, and the bigger the risk, the bigger the potential payout. Cuban suggests that investors to go for broke and swing for the fences — but only with a sliver of their investments. “If you’re a true adventurer and you really want to throw the hail Mary, you might take 10% and put it in Bitcoin or Ethereum, but if you do that, you’ve got to pretend you’ve already lost your money,” Cuban commented. “It’s like collecting art, it’s like collecting baseball cards, it’s like collecting shoes. It’s a flyer, but I’d limit it to 10%.”
  • If One of Those Risks Is Crypto, Stick With the Big Boys – If you’re considering jumping on the cryptocurrency bandwagon, you’d be wise to place your bets on the biggest names in the game because Cuban sees way too many similarities to 1999 for comfort. “Watching the cryptos trade, it’s exactly like the internet stock bubble. exactly. I think Bitcoin, Ethereum, a few others will be analogous to those that were built during the dot-com era, survived the bubble bursting and thrived, like AMZN, EBay, and Priceline. Many won’t,” commented Cuban
  • If You Don’t Understand an Investment, Walk Away –  Investing fundamentals dictates against investing in things you don’t understand. “If you don’t fully understand the risks of an investment you are contemplating, it’s okay to do nothing,” Cuban wrote. “No. 1 rule of investing: When you don’t know what to do, do nothing.” Always invest in what you know.
  • Knowledge Is the Best Investment – The best way to avoid investing in something you don’t understand is to understand whatever you’re invested in. “At MicroSolutions it, “knowledge advantage”. gave me a huge advantage. A guy with little computer background could compete with far more experienced guys just because I put in the time to learn all I could. I read every book and magazine I could. Heck, three bucks for a magazine, 20 bucks for a book. One good idea that led to a customer or solution paid for itself many times over.”

You must be able to earn, save, and manage your spending, then you can start investing and building wealth.

Cuban was influenced by a book called “Cashing in on the American Dream: How to Retire by the Age of 35.”“The whole premise of the book [Cashing in on the American Dream] was if you could save up to $1 million and live like a student, you could retire” Cuban said. “But you would have to have the discipline of saving and how you spent your money once you got there. I did things like have five roommates and live off of macaroni and cheese and really was very, very frugal. I had the worst possible car.”

  1. https://www.gobankingrates.com/money/wealth/millionaire-money-rules/
  2. https://www.gobankingrates.com/investing/strategy/mark-cubans-top-investing-advice

Housing Boom is Over as New Home Sales Fall to Pandemic Low

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“Housing has been one of the brightest lights of the economic recovery from COVID-19, but a shortage of homes for sale and rising prices have crimped sales.” U. S. News & World Report

CNBC reported that:

  • Sales of new single family homes fell to an annualized rate of 676,000, 6.6% below May’s rate of 724,000 and 19.4% below the June 2020 level of 839,000.
  • The inventory of new homes for sale jumped from a 5.5-month supply in May to a 6.3-month supply in June. Last fall, it sat at a low of just 3.5 months.

Sales of newly built homes dropped in June to the lowest level since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic in April 2020, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau.

After a year of frenzied buying and price gains in the double digits, newly built homes are now out of reach for much of the demand that remains in the market, according to CNBC. 

The median price of a newly built home in June rose just 6% from June 2020, and while that is a large gain historically, it is nothing compared with the 15%-20% annual gains seen in previous months.

Most of the homebuying is on the higher end of the market, and builders cannot afford to put up affordable homes due to skyrocketing construction costs.

Softwood lumber, in particular, spiked more than 300% during the pandemic, and while it has fallen back dramatically in the last month, it is still about 75% above its 2019 average. Other lumber products are still significantly more expensive.

“We also know there are shortages of appliances, labor and affordable lots,” noted Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at the Bleakley Advisory Group. “The moderation in home sales is likely a combination of sticker shock and the slowdown in the ability of builders to finish homes because of a variety of delays.”

While there is unquestionably still strong demand from buyers, much of it is being squelched by affordability and supply issues.

Those signs clearly showed up at builder home sites in June and have been a factor in weakening homebuilder sentiment for the past two months. Noted builder analyst Ivy Zelman wrote as much in a note last month.

The U.S. housing market is a major indicator of the strength of the economy.

When the economy is strong and people are confident about the future, they are more inclined to buy houses, upgrade their current homes or buy larger houses. When they are more concerned about the economy, new home construction, remodeling, median prices and housing sales are all depressed.

For years, real estate was considered a reliable way to increase personal wealth because the cost of property and housing consistently increased over time.

References:

  1. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/26/housing-boom-is-over-as-new-home-sales-fall-to-pandemic-low.html
  2. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
  3. https://www.usnews.com/topics/subjects/housing-market
  4. https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2021-07-26/new-home-sales-slip-66-in-june

Buffett on Inflation

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“Inflation often feels like an abstract concept, but it hits everyday people the hardest.” Warren Buffett

Inflation is when the dollars in your wallet lose their purchasing power — either because the money supply has dramatically increased or because prices have surged, according to Bankrate.com.

Effectively, inflation occurs when the cost of goods and services in the economy goes up over a sustained period of time. Yet, inflation doesn’t happen overnight, and it also doesn’t happen when the cost of one particular good or service goes up.

From an economics perspective, inflation refers to price increases to the broader economy. And, price increases aren’t always synonymous with inflation — and some economic experts say a little bit of inflation is actually good for the economy. That’s for two main reasons: One, it prevents a deflationary trap, which experts say can be even worse than deflation because money loses value. Another reason is because households make better financial decisions when they expect stable and low prices.

“We may see prices rise on certain things like gas or milk, but it’s not necessarily inflation unless you see prices rising sort of across the board, across many different products and services,” says Jordan van Rijn, senior economist at the Credit Union National Association (CUNA).

The Berkshire CEO described high inflation as a “tax on capital” that discourages corporate investment. The “hurdle rate,” or the return on equity needed to generate a real return for investors, climbs when prices rise, Buffett said. “The average tax-paying investor is now running up a down escalator whose pace has accelerated to the point where his upward progress is nil,” Buffett added.

Buffett pointed out inflation can hurt more than income taxes, as it’s able to turn a positive return on investment into a negative one. If prices have climbed enough, people who make a nominal return on their investment may be left with less purchasing power than before they invested.

Inflation Causes

Given the federal government’s unprecedented loose monetary policy, fiscal spending spree and money-printing splurge over the last year, many economists have warned that such fiscal irresponsibility could result in a destructive wave of inflation.

‘I worry about inflation. I do not believe inflation is going to be transitory.’ Larry Fink, chairman and CEO, BlackRock Inc.

Defenders of federal government pandemic monetary and fiscal interventions have insisted that any resulting price inflation is just transitory. But recent data is showing that price inflation is hitting new highs and many economists believe that inflation is deep rooted and non-transitory.

However, the June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows prices once again sharply on the rise. From June 2020 to June 2021, the data show that consumer prices rose a staggering 5.4 percent. Larry Fink, Chairman and CEO of BlackRock Inc., isn’t convinced by the Federal Reserve’s arguments that U.S. inflation pressures will fade away once supply bottlenecks and other temporary factors resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic fade away.

Economists lump inflation causes into two categories: demand-pull and cost-push inflation.

Cost-push occurs when prices increase because production is more expensive; that can include rises in labor costs (wages) or material prices. Firms pass along those higher costs in the form of higher prices, which then cycles back into the cost of living.

On the flip side, demand-pull inflation generates price increases when consumers have resilient interest for a service or a good.

While price inflation has many causes, much of the current inflation can be traced back to the policy of the Federal Reserve. The Fed essentially created trillions of new dollars to pump into the economy in the name of “pandemic stimulus.”

“The quantity of money has increased more than 32.9% since January 2020,” Federal Economic and Education (FEE) economist Peter Jacobsen explained in May. “That means nearly one-quarter of the money in circulation has been created since then. If more dollars chase the exact same goods, prices will rise.” 

“We are seeing very substantial inflation,” Warren Buffet said at a recent shareholder meeting. “It’s very interesting. We are raising prices. People are raising prices to us and it’s being accepted.”

The typical person’s standard of living declines as a result of price inflation, because what really matters is not what number appears on your paycheck but the purchasing power of your paycheck. Working-class Americans suffer tremendously when their energy bill increases by nearly 25 percent in just one year, for example.

It is not a secret that stocks, like bonds, do poorly in an inflationary environment, according to Warren Buffett.

“There is no mystery at all about the problems of bondholders of in an era of inflation. When the value of the dollar deteriorates month after month, a security with income and principal payments denominated in those dollars isn’t going to be a big winner” Buffet states. “You hardly need a Ph.D. in economics to figure that one out.”

Regarding stocks, the conventional wisdom believes “…that stocks were a hedge against inflation. The proposition was rooted in the fact that stocks are not claims against dollars, as bonds are, but represent ownership of companies with productive facilities. These, investors believed, would retain their value in real terms; let the politicians print money as they might.”

The main reason it, stocks as a hedge against inflation, do not turn out the way conventional wisdom believed, according to Buffett, is that “stocks, in economic substance, are really very similar to bonds”.

References:

  1. https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/what-is-inflation/
  2. https://fee.org/articles/inflation-just-hit-a-13-year-high-here-s-why-you-should-care/
  3. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-warned-inflation-prices-tapeworm-investors-businesses-2021-5
  4. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/12/warren-buffett-explains-how-to-invest-in-stocks-when-inflation-rises.html
  5. https://fee.org/articles/the-costs-are-just-up-up-up-warren-buffett-issues-grave-warning-about-inflation/
  6. https://fortune.com/2011/06/12/buffett-how-inflation-swindles-the-equity-investor-fortune-classics-1977/
  7. http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Inflation-Swindles-the-Equity-Investor.pdf

Investing Goals, Time Horizon and Risk Tolerance

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When it involves investing, it’s important that you start with your financial goals, time horizon and risk tolerance.

At times in calendar year 2020, the global economy seemed on the verge of collapse. Risk, ruin and enormous opportunity were the big stories of the year. Overall, the year was marked by change, opportunity, calamity and resilience in the financial markets.

Yet, in the financial markets, winners dramatically outweighed the losers, according to Forbes Magazine. Almost overnight, new winners were born in communications, technology, lodging and investments. Innovative technology companies in the S&P 500 Index propelled U.S. markets higher. And, many industries were more resilient than expected, in part because of an unprecedented monetary and fiscal response from Washington.

In light of the unprecedented upheaval, you, like everyone else, want to see their money grow over the long term, but it’s important to determine what investments best match your own unique financial goals, time horizon and tolerance for risk.

To learn the basics of investing, it might help to start at one place, take a few steps, and slowly expand outward.

Begin by Setting Goals

As an investor, your general aim should be to grow your money and diversify your assets. But your investing can take on many different forms.

For instance, it might help you to decide the investing strategies you intend to follow in order to grow your money. Such as whether you are interested in purchasing assets that could appreciate in value, such as equity stocks and funds, or play it relative safe with bonds and cash equivalents.

If you’re interested in investing in bonds, you will receive a steady stream of income over a predetermined time period, after which you expect repayment of your principal.

You might also be interested in pursuing both growth and income, via dividend stocks.

Learning to invest means learning to weigh potential returns against risk since no investment is absolutely safe, and there’s no guarantee that an investment will work out in your favor. In a nutshell, investing is about taking “calculated risks.”

Nevertheless, the risk of losing money—no matter how seemingly intelligent or calculated your approach—can be stressful. This is why it’s important for you to really get to know your risk tolerance level.  When it comes to your choice of assets, it’s important to bear in mind that some securities are riskier than others. This may hold true for both equity and debt securities (i.e., “stocks and bonds”).

Your investment time horizon can also significantly affect your views on risk. Changes in your outlook may require a shift in your investment style and risk expectations. For instance, saving toward a short-term goal might require a lower risk tolerance, whereas a longer investing horizon can give your portfolio time to smooth out the occasional bumps in the market. But again, it depends on your risk tolerance, financial goals, and overall knowledge and experience.

References:

  1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2021/12/28/forbes-favorites-2020-the-years-best-finance–investing-stories/
  2. https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/investing/learn-to-invest-money-17155

What the Inflation of the 1970s can Teach Us Today

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A Wall Street Journal survey finds that “strong economic rebound and lingering pandemic disruptions fuel inflation forecasts above 2% through 2023”.

The U.S. inflation rate reached a 13-year high recently, triggering a debate about whether the country is entering an inflationary period similar to the 1970s, according to WSJ. Americans should brace themselves for several years of higher inflation than they’ve seen in decades, according to economists who expect the robust post-pandemic economic recovery to fuel brisk price increases for a while.

Economists surveyed this month by The Wall Street Journal raised their forecasts of how high inflation would go and for how long, compared with their previous expectations in April.

On average, the WSJ survey respondents expect a widely followed measure of inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, to be up 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2021 from a year before. They forecast the annual rise to recede to slightly less than 2.3% a year in 2022 and 2023.

That would mean an average annual increase of 2.58% from 2021 through 2023, putting inflation at levels last seen in 1993.

References:

  1. https://www.wsj.com/articles/higher-inflation-is-here-to-stay-for-years-economists-forecast-11626008400

Inflationary Pressures are a Real and Present Concern

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“Inflation jumped 5 percent in the past year, the fastest pace in 13 years.”

Inflation in the US has jumped to the highest rate since 2008.  For the past decade, inflation has averaged under 2 percent a year. But suddenly, inflation is rising much faster than anticipated and planned by the Federal Reserve. For instance, inflation rose 5 percent between May 2020 and May 2021, the Labor Department reported.

Inflation results when demand exceeds supply in an economy. When the economy grows faster than its ability to provide goods and services demanded by consumers, prices rise. When the economy grows more slowly than its potential growth rate, prices tend to fall. Factors that affect an economy’s growth rate include the supply of labor and the productivity of those workers.

Inflation is imply defined as the price of a good or service increasing over time. Conversely, you can also define inflation by looking at the value of the dollars purchasing those goods and services. Said another way, while you might agreed that the price of good and services have increased, you can also state the dollars you spend now purchase less quantity of goods and services … and by extension, the dollars themselves are clearly worth less.

Money supply and budget deficits

We’ve learned that inflation is, “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” according to economist Milton Friedman. Money supply growth is a requirement, but in and of itself, it’s not enough to cause inflation. The money needs to find its way into the economy and turnover rapidly to generate inflation. (This is referred to as the velocity of money or ratio of M2 money supply to gross domestic product, or GDP.) In recent years, the velocity of money has fallen sharply.

Rising budget deficits are not necessarily linked to inflation, either, but can contribute to an overheating economy. It all depends on whether it stimulates demand to exceed supply. From a long-term perspective, there has been little correlation in recent years between the level of debt in the economy and inflation.

The causes of present inflation and the primary explanations are:

  • Pent-up demand following the COVID-19 shutdown.
  • Base effects (essentially older low values rolling off).
  • A massive increase in the supply of dollars.

Rising Prices 

“Inflation is taxation without legislation.” – Milton Friedman.

With commodity prices soaring, money supply growth exploding, and government spending surging, there is a palpable fear of a return to 1970s-style inflation. I get it. I remember those times.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile items such as food and energy, leaped to the highest level since 1992. It rose 3.8% year-on-year, up from 3% in April.
Other official data showed that the number of initial claims for jobless benefits fell to its lowest since mid-March 2020, when the first wave of Covid-19 hit.

The cost of used cars and trucks climbed 7.3% in May from April, accounting for a third of the increase in inflation. Prices were 29.7% higher than a year earlier. They have risen in recent months because of a global semiconductor shortage that has held back car production, pushing people to enter the market for second-hand vehicles instead.

Energy prices rose, by 28.5% year-on-year, including a 56% jump in gasoline prices compared with May 2020, when demand slumped due to the pandemic. And, gasoline prices are destined to go higher with the cancelation of the cross-border permit for the Keystone XL pipeline and suspension of the program for oil and gas leasing on federal lands and waters.

The cost of flights, household furnishings, new cars, rental cars and clothing rose during May.


 

What should investors do?

In response to inflation, investors should:

  • Must become awareness of inflation. Inflation is likely to increase throughout the year (and perhaps further), and bonds are likely to at least be less of a stalwart than they have over the past 40 years. It is important to realize that is possible and you should all be prepared for lower near-term performance in fixed income markets.
  • Diversification is key. Equities, for example, have historically been a reasonable asset during certain inflationary periods as companies can often pass through increased costs.
  • Explore other forms of inflation protection, as well as a broader diversification of fixed income instruments.

Inflation is clearly present for U.S. consumers in the grocery stores, at gas stations and in vehicle sales. Fears over rising prices has investors fearing that pent-up demand and supply chain bottlenecks would create inflationary pressures, and force the Federal Reserve to “tamper” their monetary stimulus program and dampen demand by increasing interest rates.

References:

  1. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
  2. https://blog.massmutual.com/post/markets-inflation-vanderburg
  3. https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/is-1970s-style-inflation-coming-back
  4. https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/schwab-market-update
  5. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jun/10/us-inflation-highest-rate-stocks-consumer-price-index

Meme Stock Risks

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“There’s a problem with the memes (a stock that has gone viral online, drawing the attention of retail investors) because the people who are investing will lose a very substantial amount of money.” Thomas Peterffy

Definition:  A meme stock is a stock that has seen an increase in volume not because of the company’s performance, but rather because of hype on social media and online forums like Reddit. For this reason, these stocks often become overvalued, seeing drastic price increases in just a short amount of time.

The big problem with the so-called “meme”stock, which are assets powered higher on social-media sentiment and not on fundamentals, is that inexperienced investors will be saddled with real losses when stocks like AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC), and GameStop Corp. (GME), eventually come back down to Earth.

The escalation in the values of these companies, like AMC and GameStop, don’t align with their prospects for earnings or revenue in the near or midterm.“There’s a problem with the “memes” because the people who are investing will lose a very substantial amount of money,” Thomas Peterffy, founder and chairman of Interactive Brokers Group Inc., said.

Peterffy said that the good thing about the surge in memes is that it will likely bring more young investor into the fold, but they will likely learn a hard lesson in the process.

Selling Short and short squeeze

Selling short means investors are betting that the asset will fall in value. The investments in AMC and GameStop originally started out as organized short-squeezes by a cadre of individual investors who had identified that a number of companies were heavily shorted by hedge funds, according to MarketWatch. These individual investors surmised, correctly, that those stocks could be pressured higher if enough buyers collectively swooped in.

A short squeeze is when many investors looking to cover short positions start buying at the same time. The buying pushes the share price higher, making short investors accelerate their attempts to cover, which sends the shares spiraling higher in a frenzy.

Short sellers, who bet a stock will fall, provide potential fuel for stock rallies when they’re wrong. If the stock jumps, instead of falling, the short sellers are forced to buy the stock to stop their losses from growing.

Lesson learned

Trying to identify a fundamental narrative that can justify meme stocks’ price and market cap are admittedly difficult. Still, it is an exercise that might provide some insights for meme stock investors. Essentially, when the music stops for the meme stocks like AMC and GameStop, investors could be looking at big capital losses.

References:

  1. https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-a-meme-stock-5118074
  2. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/interactive-brokers-founder-says-problem-with-amc-entertainment-memes-peoplewill-lose-a-very-substantial-amount-of-money-11622836260
  3. https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/amc-stock-rally-here-are-the-14-most-shorted-stocks-now-sp500/
  4. https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/buy-sell-amc-stock-51622844305

Five Money Goals to Financial Wellness | TIAA

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According to TIAA, there are five big financial goals anyone seeking financial well-being should include on their list:

  1. Max out your 401(k) / 403(b). One rule of thumb says that by the time you turn 30, you should have the equivalent of your annual salary saved (that’s all savings, not just retirement assets); double your salary saved by age 35; three times the amount by age 40. And, it’s essential to take full advantage of your employer match, if you have one: With a $50,000 salary from an employer matching up to 6% of your contributions, you’d be turning down $3,000 (free money) each year! Letting your employer match go to waste would be like you accepting a $3,000 pay cut without a fight. In the absence of an employer plan, contribute to an IRA instead, even though the target is much lower (the annual contribution rate for 2021 is $7,000.
  2. Build an emergency fund. Each year brings economic uncertainty to many and, even for the financially secure, life happens in the form of medical bills, domestic catastrophes and other unplanned expenses. As a general rule, it’s good to maintain an emergency fund that would cover three to six months of living expenses in case you find yourself unemployed. Once you’ve calculated how much you should save, set aside a certain amount from each paycheck to set you on your way.
  3. Get your financial affairs in order. Estate planning is something you can’t afford to ignore. Getting your financial affairs in order, and designating the right people to manage them in the event of your incapacity or death, takes a huge weight off your shoulders. Necessary documents include durable powers of attorney, which designate someone to manage your day-to-day affairs, and a living will or healthcare directive to instruct your doctor what to do if you’re unable to make medical decisions for yourself. Don’t forget to inform those assigned with the task of handling your estate, who need to know the location of your will and other estate planning documents.
  4. Give yourself a debt deadline. Bad debts. You know which ones they are: the loan you took out to pay for a wedding; the credit card with the sky-high interest rate whose balance keeps rolling like a New York subway car. Convincing yourself that minimum monthly payments are okay? How about setting a deadline for repayment and getting rid of this exponentially growing interest?
  5. Create a budget (and stick to it). If you find that your spending is a bit out of control, you may want to press the reset button on your out-of-control spending behavior with a budget.

Setting these five money goals is enough to start you well on your way toward financial well-being.

References:

  1. https://www.tiaa.org/public/learn/personal-finance-101/5-must-have-financial-goals

Financial Planning 12 Step Process

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A financial plan creates a roadmap for your money and helps you achieve your financial goals.

The purpose of financial planning is to help you achieve short- and long-term financial goals like creating an emergency fund and achieving financial freedom, respectively. A financial plan is a customized roadmap to maximize your existing financial resources and ensures that adequate insurance and legal documents are in place to protect you and your family in case of a crisis. For example, you collect financial information and create short- and long-term priorities and goals in order to choose the most suitable investment solutions for those goals.

Although financial planning generally targets higher-net-worth clients, options also are available for economically vulnerable families. For example, the Foundation for Financial Planning connects over 15,000 volunteer planners with underserved clients to help struggling families take control of their financial lives free of charge.

Research has shown that a strong correlation exist between financial planning and wealth aggregation. People who plan their financial futures are more likely to accumulate wealth and invest in stocks or other high-return financial assets.

When you start financial planning, you usually begin with your life or financial priorities, goals or the problems you are trying to solve. Financial planning allows you to take a deep look at your financial wellbeing. It’s a bit like getting a comprehensive physical for your finances.

You will review some financial vital signs—key indicators of your financial health—and then take a careful look at key planning areas to make sure some common mistakes don’t trip you up.

Structure is the key to growth. Without a solid foundation — and a road map for the future — it’s easy to spin your wheels and float through life without making any headway. Good planning allows you to prioritize your time and measure the progress you’ve made.

That’s especially true for your finances. A financial plan is a document that helps you get a snapshot of your current financial position, helps you get a sense of where you are heading, and helps you track your monetary goals to measure your progress towards financial freedom. A good financial plan allows you to grow and improve your standing to focus on achieving your goals. As long as your plan is solid, your money can do the work for you.

A financial plan is a comprehensive roadmap of your current finances, your financial goals and the strategies you’ve established to achieve those goals. It is an ongoing process to help you make sensible decisions about money, and it starts with helping you articulate the things that are important to you. These can sometimes be aspirations or material things, but often they are about you achieving financial freedom and peace of mind.

Good financial planning should include details about your cash flow, net worth, debt, investments, insurance and any other elements of your financial life.

Financial planning is about three key things:

  • Determining where you stand financially,
  • Articulating your personal financial goals, and
  • Creating a comprehensive plan to reach those goals.
  • It’s that easy!

Creating a roadmap for your financial future is for everyone. Before you make any investing decision, sit down and take an honest look at your entire financial situation — especially if you’ve never made a financial plan before.

The first step to successful investing is figuring out your goals and risk tolerance – either on your own or with the help of a financial professional.

There is no guarantee that you’ll make money from your investments. But if you get the facts about saving and investing and follow through with an intelligent plan, you should be able to gain financial security over the years and enjoy the benefits of managing your money.

12 Steps to a DIY Financial Plan

It’s not the just the race car that wins the race; it also the driver. An individual must get one’s financial mindset correct before they can succeed and win the race. You are the root of your success. It requires:

  • Right vehicle at the right time
  • Right (general and specific) knowledge, skills and experience
  • Right you…the mindset, character and habit

Never give up…correct and continue.

Effectively, the first step to financial planning and the most important aspect of your financial life, beyond your level of income, budget and investment strategy, begins with your financial mindset and behavior. Without the right mindset around your financial well-being, no amount of planning or execution can improve your current financial situation. Whether you’re having financial difficulty, just setting goals or only mapping out a plan, getting yourself mindset right is your first crucial step.

Knowing your impulsive vices and creating a plan to reduce them in a healthy way while still rewarding yourself occasionally is a crucial part of a positive financial mindset. While you can’t control certain things like when the market takes a downward turn, you can control your mindset, behavior and the strategies you trust to make the best decisions for your future. It’s especially important to stay the course and maintain your focus on the positive outcomes of your goals in the beginning of your financial journey.

Remember that financial freedom is achieved through your own mindset and your commitment to accountability with your progress and goals.

“The first step is to know exactly what your problem, goal or desire is. If you’re not clear about this, then write it down, and then rewrite it until the words express precisely what you are after.” W. Clement Stone

1. Write down your goals—In order to find success, you first have to define what that looks like for you. Many great achievements begin as far-off goals, that seem impossible until it’s done. Though you may not absolutely need a goal to succeed, research still shows that those who set goals are 10 times more successful than those without goals. By setting SMART financial goals (specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound), you can put your money to work towards your future. Think about what you ultimately want to do with your money — do you want to pay off loans? What about buying a rental property? Or are you aiming to retire before 50? So that’s the first thing you should ask yourself. What are your short-term needs? What do you want to accomplish in the next 5 to 10 years? What are you saving for long term? It’s easy to talk about goals in general, but get really specific and write them down. Which goals are most important to you? Identifying and prioritizing your values and goals will act as a motivator as you dig into your financial details. Setting concrete goals may keep you motivated and accountable, so you spend less money and stick to your budget. Reminding yourself of your monetary goals may help you make smarter short-term decisions about spending and help to invest in your long-term goals. When you understand how your goal relates to what you truly value, you can use these values to strengthen your motivation. Standford Psychologist Kelly McGonigal recommends these questions to get connected with your ideal self:

  • What do you want to experience more of in your life, and what could you do to invite that/create that?
  • How do you want to be in the most important relationships or roles in your life? What would that look like, in practice?
  • What do you want to offer the world? Where can you begin?
  • How do you want to grow in the next year?
  • Where would you like to be in ten years?

Writing your goals out means you’ll be anywhere from 1.2 to 1.4 times more likely to fulfill them. Experts theorize this is because writing your goals down helps you to choose more specific goals, imagine and anticipate hurdles, and helps cement them in your mind.

2. Create a net worth statement—To create a successful plan, you first need to understand where you’re starting so you can candidly address any weak points and create specific goals. First, make a list of all your assets—things like bank and investment accounts, real estate and valuable personal property. Now make a list of all your debts: mortgage, credit cards, student loans—everything. Subtract your liabilities from your assets and you have your net worth. Your ratio of assets to liabilities may change over time — especially if you pay off debt and put money into savings accounts. Generally, a positive net worth (your assets being greater than your liabilities) is a monetary health signal. If you’re in the plus, great. If you’re in the minus, that’s not at all uncommon for those just starting out, but it does point out that you have some work to do. But whatever it is, you can use this number as a benchmark against which you can measure your progress.

3. Review your cash flow—Cash flow simply means money in (your income) and money out (your expenses). How much money do you earn each month? Be sure to include all sources of income. Now look at what you spend each month, including any expenses that may only come up once or twice a year. Do you consistently overspend? How much are you saving? Do you often have extra cash you could direct toward your goals?

4. Zero in on your budget—Your cash-flow analysis will let you know what you’re spending. Zeroing in on your budget will let you know how you’re spending. Write down your essential expenses such as mortgage, insurance, food, transportation, utilities and loan payments. Don’t forget irregular and periodic big-ticket items such as vehicle repair or replacement costs, out of pocket health care costs and real estate taxes. Then write down nonessentials—restaurants, entertainment, even clothes. Does your income easily cover all of this? Are savings a part of your monthly budget? Examining your expenses and spending helps you plan and budget when you’re building an emergency fund. It will also help you determine if what you’re spending money on aligns with your values and what is most important to you.  An excellent method of budgeting is the 50/30/20 rule. To use this rule, you divide your after-tax income into three categories:

  • Essentials (50 percent)
  • Wants (30 percent)
  • Savings (20 percent)

The 50/30/20 rule is a great and simple way to achieve your financial goals. With this rule, you can incorporate your goals into your budget to stay on track for monetary success.

5. Create an Emergency Fund–Did you know that four in 10 adults wouldn’t be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense, according to U.S. Federal Reserve? With so many people living paycheck to paycheck without any savings, unexpected expenses might seriously throw off someone’s life if they aren’t prepared for the emergency. It’s important to save money during the good times to account for the bad ones. This rings especially true these days, where so many people are facing unexpected monetary challenges. Keep 12 months of essential expenses as Emergency Fund or a rainy day fund.  If you or your family members have a medical history, you may add 5%-10% extra for medical emergencies (taking cognizance of the health insurance cover) to the amount calculated using the above formula. An Emergency Fund is a must for any household. Park the amount set aside for contingencies in a separate saving bank account, term deposit, and/or a Liquid Fund.

6. Focus on debt management—Debt can derail you, but not all debt is bad. Some debt, like a mortgage, can work in your favor provided that you’re not overextended. It’s high-interest consumer debt like credit cards that you want to avoid. Don’t go overboard when taking out a home loan. It can be frustrating to allocate your hard-earned money towards savings and paying off debt, but prioritizing these payments can set you up for success in the long run. But, as a rule of thumb, the value of the house should not exceed 2 or 3 times your family’s annual income when buying on a home loan and the price of your car should not exceed 50% of annual income. Try to follow the 28/36 guideline suggesting no more than 28 percent of pre-tax income goes toward home debt, no more than 36 percent toward all debt. This is called the debt-to-income ratio. If you stick to this ratio, it will be easier to service your loans/debt. Borrow only as much as you can comfortably repay. If you have multiple loans, it is advisable to consolidate all loans into a single loan, that has the lowest interest rate and repay it regularly.

“Before you pay the government, before you pay taxes, before you pay your bills, before you pay anyone, the first person that gets paid is you.” David Bach

7. Get your retirement savings on track—Whatever your age, retirement planning is an essential financial goal and retirement saving needs to be part of your financial plan. Although retirement may feel a world away, planning for it now is the difference between a prosperous retirement income and just scraping by. The earlier you start, the less you’ll likely have to save each year. You might be surprised by just how much you’ll need—especially when you factor in healthcare costs. To build a retirement nest egg, aim to create at least 20 times your Gross Total Income at the time of your retirement. This is necessary to keep up with inflation. But if you begin saving early, you may be surprised to find that even a little bit over time can make a big difference thanks to the power of compounding interest. Do not ignore ‘Rule of 72’ – As per this rule, the number 72 is divided by the annual rate of return on investment to determine the time it may take to double the money invested. There are several types of retirement savings, the most common being an IRA, a Roth IRA, and a 401(k):

  • IRA: An IRA is an individual retirement account that you personally open and fund with no tie to an employer. The money you put into this type of retirement account is tax-deductible. It’s important to note that this is tax-deferred, meaning you will be taxed at the time of withdrawal.
  • Roth IRA: A Roth IRA is also an individual retirement account opened and funded by you. However, with a Roth IRA, you are taxed on the money you put in now — meaning that you won’t be taxed at the time of withdrawal.
  • 401(k): A 401(k) is a retirement account offered by a company to its employees. Depending on your employer, with a 401(k), you can choose to make pre-tax or post-tax (Roth 401(k)) contributions. Calculate how much you will need and contribute to a 401(k) or other employer-sponsored plan (at least enough to capture an employer match) or an IRA.

Ideally, you should save 15% to 30% from your net take-home pay each month, before you pay for your expenses. This money should be invested in assets such as stocks, bonds and real estate to fulfil your envisioned financial goals. If you cannot save 15% to 30%, save what you can and gradually try and increase your savings rate as your earnings increase. Whatever you do, don’t put it off.

After retiring, follow the ‘80% of the income rule’. As per this rule, from your investments and/or any other income-generating activity, you need to generate at least 80% of the income you had while working. This will ensure that you can take care of your post-retirement expenses and maintain a comfortable standard of living. So make sure to invest in productive assets.

8. Check in with your portfolio—If you’re an investor, when was the last time you took a close look at your portfolio? If you’re not an investor, To start investing, you should first figure out the initial amount you want to deposit. No matter if you invest $50 or $5,000, putting your money into investments now is a great way to plan for financial success later on. Market ups and downs can have a real effect on the relative percentage of stocks and bonds you own—even when you do nothing. And even an up market can throw your portfolio out of alignment with your feelings about risk. Don’t be complacent. Review and rebalance on at least an annual basis. As a rule of thumb, your equity allocation should be 100 minus your current age – Many factors determine asset allocation, such as age, income, risk profile, nature and time horizon for your goals, etc. But you could broadly follow the formula: 100 minus your current age as the ratio to invest in equity, with the rest going to debt. And, never invest in assets you do not understand well.

  • Good health is your greatest need. Without good health, you can’t enjoy anything else in life.

9. Make sure you have the right insurance—As your wealth grows over time, you should start thinking about ways to protect it in case of an emergency. Although insurance may not be as exciting as investing, it’s just as important. Insuring your assets is more of a defensive financial move than an offensive one. Having adequate insurance is an important part of protecting your finances. We all need health insurance, and most of us also need car and homeowner’s or renter’s insurance. While you’re working, disability insurance helps protect your future earnings and ability to save. You might also want a supplemental umbrella policy based on your occupation and net worth. Finally, you should consider life insurance, especially if you have dependents. Have 10 to 15 times of annual income as life insurance – If you are the bread earner of your family, you should have a tem life insurance coverage of around 10 to 15 times your annual income and outstanding liabilities. No compromise should be made in this regard. Review your policies to make sure you have the right type and amount of coverage. Here are some of the most important ones to get when planning for your financial future.

  • Life insurance: Life insurance goes hand in hand with estate planning to provide your beneficiaries with the necessary funds after your passing.
  • Homeowners insurance: As a homeowner, it’s crucial to protect your home against disasters or crime. Many people’s homes are the most valuable asset they own, so it makes sense to pay a premium to ensure it is protected.
  • Health insurance: Health insurance is protection for your most important asset: Your health and life. Health insurance covers your medical expenses for you to get the care you need.
  • Auto insurance: Auto insurance protects you from costs incurred due to theft or damage to your car.
  • Disability insurance: Disability insurance is a reimbursement of lost income due to an injury or illness that prevented you from working.

10. Know your income tax situation—Taxes can be a drag, but understanding how they work can make all the difference for your long-term financial goals. While taxes are a given, you might be able to reduce the burden by being efficient with your tax planning. Tax legislation tend to change a number of deductions, credits and tax rates. Don’t be caught by surprise when you file your last year’s taxes. To make sure you’re prepared for the tax season, review your withholding, estimated taxes and any tax credits you may have qualified for in the past. The IRS has provided tips and information at https://www.irs.gov/tax-reform. Taking advantage of tax sheltered accounts like IRAs and 401(k)s can help you save money on taxes. You may also want to check in with your tax accountant for specific tax advice.

11. Create or update your estate plan—Thinking about estate planning is important to outline what happens to your assets when you’re gone. To create an estate plan, you should list your assets, write your will, and determine who will have access to the information. At the minimum, have a will—especially to name a guardian for minor children. Also check that beneficiaries on your retirement accounts and insurance policies are up-to-date. Complete an advance healthcare directive and assign powers of attorney for both finances and healthcare. Medical directive forms are sometimes available online or from your doctor or hospital. Working with an estate planning attorney is recommended to help you plan for complex situations and if you need more help.

12. Review Your Plans Regularly–Figuring out how to create a financial plan isn’t a one-time thing. Your goals (and your financial standing) aren’t stagnant, so your plan shouldn’t be either. It’s essential to reevaluate your plan periodically and adjust your goals to continue setting yourself up for success. As you progress in your career, you may want to take a more aggressive approach to your retirement plan or insurance. For example, a young 20-something in their first few years of work likely has less money to put into their retirement and savings accounts than a person in their mid-30s who has an established career. Staying updated with your financial plan also ensures that you hold yourself accountable to your goals. Over time, it may become easy to skip one payment here or there, but having concrete metrics might give you the push you need for achieving a future of financial literacy. After you figure out how to create a monetary plan, it’s good practice to review it around once a year.

Additionally, take into account factors such as the following:

  • The number of years left before you retire
  • Your life expectancy (an estimate, based on your family’s medical history)
  • Your current basic monthly expenditure
  • Your existing assets and liabilities
  • Contingency reserve, if any
  • Your risk appetite
  • Whether you have adequate health insurance
  • Whether you have provided for other life goals
  • Inflation growth rate

A financial plan isn’t a static document to sit on — it’s a tool to manage your money, track your progress, and one you should adjust as your life evolves. It’s helpful to reevaluate your financial plan after major life milestones, like getting m arried, starting a new job or retiring, having a child or losing a loved one.

Financial planning is a great strategy for everyone — whether you’re a budding millionaire or still in college, creating a plan now can help you get ahead in the long run, especially if you want to make a roadmap to a successful future.

For additional financial planning resources to create your own financial plan, go to the MoneySense complete financial plan kit.

References:

  1. https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2017/04/06/can-economically-vulnerable-americans-benefit-from-financial-capability-services
  2. https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/2020/05/26/your-mindset-is-everything-when-it-comes-to-your-finances/?sh=22f5cb394818
  3. https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/10-steps-to-diy-financial-plan
  4. https://www.principal.com/individuals/build-your-knowledge/build-your-own-financial-plan-step-step-Guide
  5. https://mint.intuit.com/blog/planning/how-to-make-a-financial-plan/
  6. https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2017-report-economic-well-being-us-households-201805.pdf
  7. https://news.stanford.edu/news/2015/january/resolutions-succeed-mcgonigal-010615.html
  8. https://www.investec.com/content/dam/united-kingdom/downloads-and-documents/wealth-investment/for-myself/brochures/financial-planning-explained-investec-wealth-investment.pdf
  9. https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/tenthingstoconsider.html
  10. https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/what-is-a-financial-plan
  11. https://www.axisbank.com/progress-with-us/money-matters/save-invest/10-rules-of-thumb-for-financial-planning-and-wellbeing
  12. https://twocents.lifehacker.com/10-good-financial-rules-of-thumb-1668183707