China’s Communist Party leaders believe that America is in decline. They believe this not only because their country’s sheer size will make them the largest economy on the planet by 2030 but also because they believe their long-term thinking and competent, consistent leadership have outshone America’s in so many ways, writes Jamie Dimon, CEO, JP Morgan in his 2020 annual letter to shareholders.
The Chinese see an America that is losing ground in technology, infrastructure and education – a nation torn and crippled by politics, as well as racial and income inequality – and a country unable to coordinate government policies (fiscal, monetary, industrial, regulatory) in any coherent way to accomplish national goals. Unfortunately, recently, there is a lot of truth to this, in the next 40 years, according to Dimon.
In recent years, China has been dealing with many challenges to its economic expansion, including pandemic-related curbs, an energy crunch, and an unprecedented crackdown on private enterprises. These challenges and the Communist government’s reaction led to 4% growth in China for the fourth quarter, according to JP Morgan.
Additionally, the government actions against COVID-19 have also kept domestic demand for goods and services suppressed, putting a lid on imports.
However, Dimon opines that “China will have to confront some serious socioeconomic and geopolitical issues”:
- The Chinese lack enough food, water and energy to support their population;
- Pollution is rampant;
- Corruption continues to be a problem;
- State-owned enterprises are often inefficient;
- Corporate and government debt levels are growing rapidly;
- Financial markets lack depth, transparency and adequate rule of law;
- Income inequality is higher than in the rest of the world; and
- Their working age population has been declining since 2012.
- Capital outflows has caused the regime to tighten capital controls.
- Lower rates make Chinese financial markets less attractive to global and domestic capital.
Additionally, China will continue to face pressure from the United States and other Western governments over human rights abuses (especially against the Uyghur population), democracy and freedom in Hong Kong, and activity in the South China Sea and Taiwan. The Uyghurs are an ethnic Muslim minority in China that have allegedly endured forced labor and other human rights violations.
Autocratic and authoritative leadership works well when you can manage top down and you are starting from a very low base. China’s recent success definitely has its leadership feeling confident.
Regardless of Chinese Communist Party’s opinions regarding its inevitable economic rise, only 100 million people of its more than 1.4 billion population in China effectively participate in the nation’s one-party political system. No other developed nation has such low participation. Growing middle classes almost always demand political power, which helps explain why autocratic leadership almost always falters in a larger, more complex economy.
Under autocratic leadership, a major risk is the allocation of economic assets (capital and people), which are, over time, used to further political interests, leading to inefficient companies and markets, favoritism and corruption.
In addition, autocratic leadership diminishes the rule of law and transparency – damaging the ability to create a well-functioning financial system (this certainly restricts the internationalizing of the RMB).
Disruption of trade is another risk China faces. The United States’ trade issues with China are substantial and real. They include:
- Theft or forced transfer of intellectual property;
- Lack of bilateral investment rights, transfer of ownership or control of investments;
- Onerous non-tariff barriers;
- Unfair subsidies or benefits for state-owned enterprises; and
- Lack of rapid enforcement of any disagreements.
China will only comply with international trade agreements and only do what is in its own self-interest. Near term, we should expect challenge and conflict to characterize the relationship between China and the West over a range of economic, human rights and strategic issues.
There may, however, be areas where we will simply never agree. As the two largest economies in the world, China and the United States should continue to have a long-term interest in collaborating where we can on critical global issues, including climate change, global health and stability on the Korean Peninsula.
China does not have a straight road to becoming the dominant economic power. To put this in perspective, America’s GDP per person in 2019 was $65,000 and China’s was $10,000. Even if we do a rather poor job at managing our economy (growing at 2%), our GDP per person in 20 years would be $85,000. And if the Chinese do a good job managing their economy, their GDP per person in 2040 would still be under $35,000. While China is well on its way to becoming a fully developed nation, it may face more uncertainty and moments of slower growth in the future (like the rest of us) than in the past.
For the near term, if China and the United States can maintain a healthy strategic and economic relationship, it could greatly benefit both countries – as well as the rest of the world.
Another factor is the Chinese currency, the renminbi (RMB). The renminbi cannot be freely moved around the world; it can leave China only in limited amounts and can be invested only as the Chinese see fit. Thus the renminbi is a long way from replacing the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
The Chinese currency is subject to their internal politics, laws and regulations. While the Chinese have done a good job building their economy and are slowly moving toward a more transparent society and financial system, they are a long way from having a currency that is fully “convertible” like the U.S. dollar.
References:
- https://reports.jpmorganchase.com/investor-relations/2020/ar-ceo-letters.htm
- https://www.wsj.com/articles/slow-meltdown-of-china-economy-evergrande-property-market-collapse-downturn-xi-cewc-11640032283
- https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/could-chinas-economy-collapse/ar-AAPypxS
- https://warontherocks.com/2021/12/could-chinas-massive-public-debt-torpedo-the-global-economy/
Commercial real estate bust.
While the U.S. economy is likely to grow 6% in 2021 and 4% in 2022, the highest rate in decades, analysts project.
China’s economy has been faltering despite it’s exceptionally strong trade surplus and it’s authoritarian government’s heavy hand on COVID-19.
