Tag Archives: Greater Fool Theory

Blockchain and Cryptocurrency Scam / Ponzi Scheme

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“Cryptocurrencies are like ‘pet rocks’.” ~ Jamie Dimon, CEO and Chairman, J P Morgan Chase

A blockchain is a digital ledger associated with an asset, recording the history of that transaction in that asset…who bought it and from whom. In other words, blockchains are simply append-only spreadsheets maintained across decentralized “peer-to-peer” networks, writes Sohale Andrus Mortazavi, in an article entitled “Cryptocurrency Is a Giant Ponzi Scheme”.

What distinctive about blockchain is that the ledgers are supposed to be decentralized: they aren’t sitting on the computer ‘or ledger’ of a single bank or company. They are in the public domain, sustained by protocols that induce many people to maintain records on many servers.

Cryptocurrency blockchains allow users to maintain a shared ledger of financial transactions without the need of a central server or managing authority. Users are thus able to make direct online transactions with one another as if they were trading cash.

Cryptocurrency blockchains generally don’t allow previously verified transactions to be deleted or altered. The data is immutable. Updates are added by chaining a new “block” of transaction data to the chain of existing blocks.

In theory, blockchain and cryptocurrencies were supposed to offer a lower cost and more secure method to keep track of transactions. But, cryptocurrencies don’t produce anything of material value. Investors can only cash out by selling their digital coins to other investors.

Which makes them an experiment in the “greater fool” theory of investing, in which investors attempt to profit on overvalued or even worthless assets by selling them on to the next “greater fool”. Price manipulation plays as much or more of a role than demand in driving prices higher.

Furthermore, the parent company of Tether and Bitfinex, is printing tethers from thin air and using them to buy up Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in order to create artificial scarcity and drive prices higher. Sam Bankman-Fried’s company FTX imploded due to similar fake proprietary tokens artificially inflating and propping up risky trades by FTX’s affiliate Alameda.

Tether has effectively become the central bank of crypto. Like central banks, they ensure liquidity in the market and even engage in quantitative easing — the practice of central banks buying up financial assets in order to stimulate the economy and stabilize financial markets. The difference is that central banks, at least in theory, operate in the public good and try to maintain healthy levels of inflation that encourage capital investment. By comparison, private companies issuing stablecoins are indiscriminately inflating cryptocurrency prices so that they can be dumped on unsuspecting investors (greater fools).

Cryptocurrency has been one of the greatest destroyers of wealth in the financial history of mankind. ~ Jay Adkisson

This renders cryptocurrency not merely a bad investment or speculative bubble but something more akin to a decentralized Ponzi scheme. Unbacked stablecoins are being used to inflate the “spot price” — the latest trading price — of cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin, to levels totally disconnected from reality. If cryptocurrency and NFT markets cannot keep luring in enough new money or capital becomes to expensive due to rising interest rates to cover the growing costs of mining (think Ponzi scheme), the scheme will become unworkable and financially insolvent.

Cryptocurrency has been one of the greatest destroyers of wealth in the financial history of mankind, writes Jay Adkisson, in Forbes.

“Many Bitcoin promoters are simply shilling and attempting to pump the price of Bitcoin up because they themselves are invested in cryptocurrency companies.” ~ Jay Adkisson

“It is hard to imagine cryptocurrency being a suitable investment for all but those who are sufficiently wealthy that they can burn wads of cash off a bridge and not be distressed by it,” writes cryptocurrency watcher Charles Padua. Many Bitcoin promoters are simply shilling and attempting to pump the price of Bitcoin up because they themselves are invested in cryptocurrency companies.

Bottomline, Bitcoin itself may not be a total fraudulent scam, but how Bitcoin and all cryptocurrencies are being promoted and sold by its legions of ‘conflict of interest’ advocates to the average retail investor is the definition of a scam and Ponzi scheme.

References:

  1. https://jacobin.com/2022/01/cryptocurrency-scam-blockchain-bitcoin-economy-decentralization
  2. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jayadkisson/2018/11/20/the-great-cryptocurrency-scam/?sh=fc556be359fe

The Greater Fool Theory

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“The greater fool theory states that the price of an object is determined not by its intrinsic value, but rather by irrational beliefs and expectations of market participants. As long as there is a greater fool around the corner willing to pay a higher price, the value will continue to rise,” — Ashwin Sanghi

The “greater fool theory” refers to the principle that one can make money by investing into overvalued assets and selling them for a profit later, because there will always be someone else, “the greater fool”, who will come along and pay a higher price for the assets.

Billionaire Microsoft co-founder and investor Bill Gates has dismissed investments in cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, and non-fungible tokens (NTFS). He opined that the digital assets market is largely driven by rampant speculation, greed and the greater fool theory.

Gates stated that the phenomenon of cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens as something that’s “100% based on greater fool theory,” since there will always be other speculators willing to pay more for assets.

Gates said he doesn’t own any crypto because he prefers investing in assets with determinable intrinsic value (value that is justified by facts) or “things that have valuable output.”

Thus without having a determinable intrinsic value, — a value that is justified by “facts”; such as assets, liabilities, earnings, dividends and other definite values — investing in cryptocurrency and NTFs is purely speculative by investors.

In the past, intrinsic value was equated to a company’s “book value”. Subsequently, a new concept was developed; the intrinsic value was determined by the earning power or the present value of the discounted future cash flow of a company.

Regarding intrinsic value: “To use a homely simile, it is quite possible to decide by inspection that a woman is old enough to vote without knowing her age or that a man is heavier than he should be without knowing his exact weight..” — Security Analysis by Benjamin Graham, David Dodd, Warren Buffet.

According to Corporate Finance Institute, the best way to avoid being a “Greater Fool” is to:

  • Do not blindly follow the herd, paying higher and higher prices for something without any good reason.
  • Do your research and follow a plan.
  • Adopt a long-term strategy for investments to avoid bubbles.
  • Diversify your portfolio.
  • Control your emotion of greed and resist the temptation to try to make big money within a short period of time.
  • Understand that there is no sure thing in the market, not even continual price inflation.

References:

  1. https://decrypt.co/102973/bill-gates-crypto-and-nfts-100-based-on-greater-fool-theory
  2. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/greater-fool-theory/
  3. https://medium.com/the-peanut/the-concept-of-intrinsic-value-in-security-analysis-baa26ed1d42a

Greater Fool Theory | Motley Fool

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“Greater fool theory states that investors can achieve positive returns by buying an asset without concern for valuation fundamentals and other important factors because someone else will buy it at a higher price.”

Simply stated, investors expect to make a profit on the stocks they purchase because another investor (the “greater fool”) will be willing to pay even more for the stock, regardless if the stock’s price is overvalued based on fundamentals analysis or long-term performance outlooks.

According to The Motley Fool, this philosophy relies on the expectation that someone else will get caught up in market momentum (frenzy) or have their own reasons for why the asset is worth more than the price you paid. 

In the short term, popular sentiment plays the biggest role in shaping stock market pricing action, but fundamental factors including revenue, earnings, cash flow, and debt determine how a company’s stock performs over longer periods.

In short, it is possible to achieve strong returns by using the greater fool theory, but it’s risky and far from the best path to achieving strong long-term performance. 

Specifically with regard to the stock market, the Greater Fool Theory becomes relevant when the price of a stock goes up so much that it is being driven by the expectation that buyers for the stock can always be found, not by the intrinsic value (cash flows) of the company.

The Greater Fool Theory is a very risky, speculative strategy that is not recommended especially for long-term investors.

References:

  1. https://www.fool.com/investing/how-to-invest/greater-fool-theory/
  2. https://www.hartfordfunds.com/investor-insight/the-greater-fool-theory-what-is-it.html