Tag Archives: Intrinsic Value

Warren Buffett Investing Lessons

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“Most people get interested in stocks [or assets like Bitcoin] when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well.” – Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO, Berkshire-Hathaway, the Oracle of Omaha, has been the most successful investor of the 20th Century and is considered by many to be one of the greatest investors of all time.. His investment track record is simply remarkable with compounded annual returns over 20% over the last 55 plus years.

Essentially, if you had invested $10,000 USD in his investment firm Berkshire-Hathaway in 1965, that $10,000 USD would today be worth over $280 million US dollars.

What follows are several investing lessons all investors can learn from Buffett:

Investing Lesson 1: Risk Comes From Not Knowing What You are Doing

Many first-time investors have started trading in stocks and cryptocurrency without really understanding how these asset classes work. Buffett has advised investors to not chase everything that is new and shiny, and instead to only focus on the opportunities that they painstakingly researched and understand.

Stick to your circle of competence. Try not to be good at all things, and instead try to be great at one thing and give it all you`ve got. It`s better to be known for one thing than nothing.

“Never invest in a business you cannot understand.” Warren Buffett.

Investing Lesson 2: System Overpowers the Smart

Buffett advises that retail investors use a low-cost index fund. Investing via index funds gives you the advantage of a system, it allows for a disciplined investing cycle via SIPs and keeps emotions away from corrupting that framework. In other words, Buffett wants retail investors to follow a system over everything else.

And the system and a clear investing framework finding great business at good reasonable prices that have powered Berkshire Hathaway for the last five decades.

Change the way you see setbacks. You will make mistakes, probably lots of them, as long as you choose to swing for the fences. Buffett believes you can do well if you program your mind to see opportunities in every setback.

“A low-cost index fund is the most sensible equity investment for the great majority of investors.” Warren Buffett.

Investing Lesson 3: Have an Owner’s Mindset

Buying a stock is effectively buying a business and investors should follow the same kind of rigorous analysis and due diligence as one would do when buying a business.

The lesson here is that instead of getting too caught up in the recent movement of the stock price, you should spend more time analyzing the business fundamentals behind the stock price.

You can only genuinely value a business if you can accurately predict future cash flows. This is impossible without an understanding of the company’s operating environment and fundamentals.

And once you have answers to the pertinent questions, invest in a business that you would like to own for the next 10 to 20 years.

On how to invest in stocks. His response is a simple five-word answer: “Invest in the long term.”

“That whole idea that you own a business you know is vital to the investment process.” Warren Buffett

Investing Lesson 4: Be Fearful When Others are Greedy and Be Greedy When Others are Fearful

The stock markets work in cycles of greed and fear. When there is greed, people are ready to pay more than what a business is worth. But when fear sets in, then great businesses are available at huge discounts for anyone who is ready to keep their gloomy emotions aside.

In Berkshire’s 2018 shareholder letter, Buffett wrote, “Seizing opportunities does not require great intelligence, a degree in economics or a familiarity with Wall Street jargon such as alpha and beta. What investors need instead is an ability to both disregard mob fears or enthusiasms and to focus on a few simple fundamentals. A willingness to look unimaginative for a sustained period — or even to look foolish — is also essential.”

In other words, Buffett encourages investors to not follow the herd. And strip away emotions when making investment decisions, which is likely to open up more profitable opportunities.

“What investors need is an ability to both disregard mob fears or enthusiasms and to focus on a few simple fundamentals.” Warren Buffett

Investing Lesson 5: Save and Preserve Capital for A Golden Rainy Day

Warren Buffett goes by the philosophy – hold onto your money when money is cheap and spend aggressively when money is expensive.

Financial expert criticized Buffett for holding onto billions of dollars in cash and not deploying it in stocks. But Buffett was saving all that cash to be used when companies come down from the then astronomical valuations to more reasonable prices.

“Every decade or so, dark clouds will fill the economic skies and they will briefly rain gold. When a downpour of that sort occurs. It is imperative that we rush outdoors carrying washtubs and not teaspoons.” Warren Buffett

Investing Lesson 6: Never Invest Just Because a Company is Cheap

A cheap business may be cheap for a very good reason, but may not be a profitable or favorable investment.

His investing approach is to look at a business’s competitive advantage, intangibles like brand value, cost superiority and its strong growth prospects.

This goes hand-in-hand with his Buffett’s first rule of investing is “don’t lose money.” His second rule is “never forget rule number one.” In short, investors should try to avoid significant losses at all costs, but avoiding all losses is impossible.

“It is far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price,” Warren Buffett

Investing Lesson 7: Time is The Friend of The Wonderful Business

Patience and time are important in investing and has investors can reap the benefits of compounding.

Additionally, “cash is king” and investors must avoid debt at all costs. Buffett has always had a strong net cash position. Cash gives optionality and means you’re unlikely to have to make hard decisions when the market becomes volatile and eventually turns.

Considering volatility, Buffett said, “There is simply no telling how far stocks can fall in a short period. Even if your borrowings are small and your positions are not immediately threatened by the plunging market, your mind may well become rattled by scary headlines and breathless commentary. And an unsettled mind will not make good decisions.”

Buffett is not a fan of the kind of debt that can leave consumers broke and helpless, especially when the markets go down.

“It is insane to risk what you have and need in order to obtain what you don’t need,” Warren Buffett

Investing Lesson 9: Keep It Simple

An element of simplicity is important. Buffett himself follows a simple to understand investing framework, which can best be defined as buying stakes in a business where the price you pay is far lower than the value you derive. He wants investors to invest in simple and understandable instruments only and using a process that one can easily digest.

For example, if you don’t understand cryptocurrency, don’t invest, trade, or speculate in Bitcoins or glamorous-looking investment vehicles we are exposed to every year.

“If you are uncomfortable with the asset class that you have picked, then chances are you will panic when others panic,” Warren Buffett

Finally, treat your body and mind like the only car you could have. If someone offered you the most expensive car in the world with a single condition that you never get another one, how will you treat this car?

With this analogy in mind, Buffett urges you to treat your body and mind the same way you treat your one, and only car. If you don’t take care of your mind and body now, by the time you are forty or fifty you’ll be like a car that can’t go anywhere.

Investing Bottomline

Buffett’s lessons are simple and straightforward. He submits to keep it simple, improve upon what you know, stay within your circle of competence and comfort zone, and there are enough opportunities for one to thrive in investing.

References:

  1. https://www.etmoney.com/blog/9-lessons-in-investing-by-warren-buffett/
  2. https://thetotalentrepreneurs.com/business-lessons-warren-buffet/
  3. https://addicted2success.com/life/5-lessons-we-can-all-learn-from-the-life-of-warren-buffett/
  4. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-warren-buffetts-most-important-224429018.html

Recession…recessions always come with significant increase in unemployment. It’s basically definitional. Employment and gross domestic product fall together during a recession.

The Greater Fool Theory

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“The greater fool theory states that the price of an object is determined not by its intrinsic value, but rather by irrational beliefs and expectations of market participants. As long as there is a greater fool around the corner willing to pay a higher price, the value will continue to rise,” — Ashwin Sanghi

The “greater fool theory” refers to the principle that one can make money by investing into overvalued assets and selling them for a profit later, because there will always be someone else, “the greater fool”, who will come along and pay a higher price for the assets.

Billionaire Microsoft co-founder and investor Bill Gates has dismissed investments in cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, and non-fungible tokens (NTFS). He opined that the digital assets market is largely driven by rampant speculation, greed and the greater fool theory.

Gates stated that the phenomenon of cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens as something that’s “100% based on greater fool theory,” since there will always be other speculators willing to pay more for assets.

Gates said he doesn’t own any crypto because he prefers investing in assets with determinable intrinsic value (value that is justified by facts) or “things that have valuable output.”

Thus without having a determinable intrinsic value, — a value that is justified by “facts”; such as assets, liabilities, earnings, dividends and other definite values — investing in cryptocurrency and NTFs is purely speculative by investors.

In the past, intrinsic value was equated to a company’s “book value”. Subsequently, a new concept was developed; the intrinsic value was determined by the earning power or the present value of the discounted future cash flow of a company.

Regarding intrinsic value: “To use a homely simile, it is quite possible to decide by inspection that a woman is old enough to vote without knowing her age or that a man is heavier than he should be without knowing his exact weight..” — Security Analysis by Benjamin Graham, David Dodd, Warren Buffet.

According to Corporate Finance Institute, the best way to avoid being a “Greater Fool” is to:

  • Do not blindly follow the herd, paying higher and higher prices for something without any good reason.
  • Do your research and follow a plan.
  • Adopt a long-term strategy for investments to avoid bubbles.
  • Diversify your portfolio.
  • Control your emotion of greed and resist the temptation to try to make big money within a short period of time.
  • Understand that there is no sure thing in the market, not even continual price inflation.

References:

  1. https://decrypt.co/102973/bill-gates-crypto-and-nfts-100-based-on-greater-fool-theory
  2. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/greater-fool-theory/
  3. https://medium.com/the-peanut/the-concept-of-intrinsic-value-in-security-analysis-baa26ed1d42a

Purchase Price Matters

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“If you think about the environment we’ve been in for the past 10 years, purchase price has not mattered.” Marc Rowan, CEO & Director, Apollo Global Management, Q4 2021 Earnings Call

The profit of an investment is often determined by the purchase price since “Price is what you pay; value is what you get”, quips billionaire investors Warren Buffett.

The price of a stock is determined by human characteristics and emotions, such as fear and greed, market tendencies and other factors. All of these things affect the price of a stock, sometimes to a large degree but rarely do they significantly affect its value.

“If you think about the [stock market] environment we’ve been in for the past 10 years, purchase price has not mattered”, said Marc Rowan, CEO & Director, Apollo Global Management. “The more risk you took, the more outrageous, generally the higher the pay off.”

Rowan and Apollo Global Management has consistently followed the investment philosophy that “purchase price matters”. Although, over the past decade in the equity stock markets, their strategy of “patient, value-oriented, disciplined approach to capital deployment” had not been consistently rewarded.

Share Price and Intrinsic Value

“Losing money can happen when you pay a price that doesn’t match the value you get. Look for opportunities to get more value at a lower price.”

Before purchasing a stock, it’s essential to compare the market price of a stock to its fair intrinsic value. When you find a company whose stock’s price is trading lower than the company’s intrinsic value would mark the opportune moment to purchase the company. Since value investors believe that an undervalued market priced stock will eventually climb to reach its fair, or intrinsic, value.

This is a process known as value investing, a type of investing that puts the utmost importance on the valuation of a company and uses various metrics to determine whether the valuation is low, high, or where it should be.

Some of the most important metrics include:

  • Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E Ratio). The P/E ratio compares the price of a stock to the company’s earnings per share (EPS).
  • Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S Ratio). The P/S ratio compares the price of the stock to the annual sales, or revenue, generated by the company.
  • Price-to-Book-Value Ratio (P/B Ratio). Finally, the P/B ratio compares the price of the stock to the net value of assets owned by the company, divided by the number of outstanding shares.
  • Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow Ratio (P/FCF Ratio)

Before buying a stock, you must attempt to compute the intrinsic value of the company. If you’re following the value investing strategy, you’ll want to make sure the stocks you buy are undervalued compared to their peers.

Even when following other investing strategies, it’s important to avoid purchasing overvalued stocks because the market has a history of correcting overvaluations with price declines. Because in the long term investing, purchase price does matter.

Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP)

Overvaluation will ultimately matter. In the short run, stock prices are based on hype and current news. Over the long term, valuations will ultimately matter when the hype declined and the market will correct the price.

When a stock is falling in price, it’s difficult to purchase a stock when it’s out of favor and widely being panned by the crowd.

References:

  1. https://www.apollo.com/~/media/Files/A/Apollo-V3/documents/apo-q421-earnings-call-transcript.pdf
  2. https://www.moneycrashers.com/factors-buying-stock-price-value/
  3. https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/2018/01/04/the-important-differences-between-price-and-value/

Mindset, Discipline, Patience, Opportunity

  • It’s about process and being contrarian to current market sentiment and the crowd’s emotion
  • Why the hype: Optimistic vs. Pessimistic

When you purchase a stock, you are buying a Piece of a Company, not just a Ticker Symbol.

Every Investment is the Present Value of all Future Cash Flow.

Do you understand how the company makes its money (e.g., revenue, profit and free cash flow)

If the share price is surging; but the company’s corresponding fundamentals correlating and are skyrocketing.

Free Cash Flow – the true life blood for a company :

  1. Pay down debt
  2. Buy back stocks
  3. Pay shareholders’ dividends
  4. Acquisitions
  5. Organic growth

Buying Stocks On the Dip

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“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful.” ~Warren Buffett

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett added shares of companies during the market downturn. He has been acquiring stocks on the dip during the recent quarter’s market downturn and bulking up his stakes in oil companies such as Occidental Petroleum (OXY)

Buying a ‘Wonderful Company at a Fair Price’

The most important concept to appreciate when buying stocks is that price is what you pay for a stock, and value is what you get. Paying too high a price can decimate returns and increase your investing risk. 

To delve deeper, the value of a stock is relative to the number of earnings or cash flow the company will generate over its lifetime. In particular, this value is determined by discounting all future cash flows back to a present value, or intrinsic value.

Buffett has said that “it is much better to buy a wonderful business at a good price than a good business at a wonderful price”.

Buffett’s investing style has been buying stocks on sale priced below its intrinsic value. He has never been one that favors acquiring commodities, but higher inflation rates could have played a role, Thomas Hayes, chairman of Great Hill Capital in New York, commented.

“As for Buffett buying shares in OXY, I wouldn’t make too much on it,” Hayes said. “Historically, he has avoided investing in commodity stocks. Today he sees it as a hedge against inflation and a potential supply/demand imbalance.”

Inflation is the biggest strain on the economy. While the pace of inflation eased slightly during the month of April, investor sentiment towards the Fed’s pace of tightening remains mixed.

The fact that he is deploying his war chest of cash is a strong indication that he and his lieutenants believe that there are undervalued stocks out there,” he said. “This doesn’t mean he believes that the market is undervalued or will rebound in the near future, but that some companies are compelling buys. This is a good signal for value investors.”

Buffett’s energy investments demonstrate the 91-year old’s investing strategy of acquiring shares in companies that have low valuations and shareholder returns in the form of dividends and buybacks, Art Hogan, chief market strategist B Riley Financial, told TheStreet.

References:

  1. https://www.thestreet.com/investing/buffett-buying-stocks-on-the-dip

Differences Between Price and Value

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“Price is what you pay; value is what you get.” Warren Buffett

“Don’t judge a company’s stock by its share price.” Many people incorrectly assume that a stock with a low dollar price is cheap, while another one with a four-digit dollar price is expensive. In fact, a stock’s price says little about that stock’s value. Moreover, it says nothing at all about whether that the market price of a company is headed higher or lower.

The most important distinction between the ‘market price you pay’ and the ‘intrinsic value you get’ is the fact that price is arbitrary and value is fundamental.

  • Price is the amount paid for the product or service.
  • Cost is the aggregate monetary value of the inputs used in the production of the goods or services.
  • Value of a product or service is the utility or worth of the product or service for an individual.

To effectively deploy this strategy, it’s essential to find a company that you understand, that has solid fundamentals — then be patient and wait until the company’s stock price falls below its intrinsic value before you purchase the company.

Regarding ‘understanding’ a company, it’s important for investors to know how a company makes its money–revenue, profits and free cash flow.

At some point, a stock’s market price over the long term adjusts to its intrinsic value. This fact is how successful investors such as Warren Buffet have used to make billions over the long term.

“Finding differences between price and value is by far the most effective investment strategy”, writes Phil Townes, founder of Rule One Investing . “Not recognizing differences between price and value is also what causes many investors to lose their shirts, as companies are just as often overpriced as they are underpriced.”

How do you find companies that are on sale for less than their true value is to evaluate companies using a set of standards that look beyond the company’s current price tag. Phil Town call these standards the four Ms:

  • Meaning,
  • Moat,
  • Management and
  • Margin of Safety

The first step is to make sure you understand the company and the company you invest in has meaning to you as an investor. If it does, you’ll understand it better, be more likely to research it and be more passionate about investing in it.

The second step is to choose a company that has a moat. This means that there is something inherent about the company that makes it difficult for competitors to step in and carve away part of their market share.

The third step is to look at the company’s management. Companies live and die by the people managing them, and if you are going to invest in a company, you need to make sure their management is talented and trustworthy.

Finally, calculate the company’s intrinsic value and determine a margin of safety. Margin of safety is the price at which you can buy shares of a company, being more likely that you won’t lose money and have increased confident that you will make a good return on your invested capital.

When the market price of a company is lower than the company’s intrinsic value number, the company is deemed underpriced and represents a great investment opportunity.

“Leveraging differences between price and value is as simple as that”, said Town. “Find a company that you believe in, that has solid fundamentals — then wait until their price falls below their value. If you do this, you can buy companies on sale, sell them for their true value and make a lot of money in the process.”

The goal is to identify stocks that are undervalued—that is, their market prices do not reflect their true intrinsic value.

References:

  1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/2018/01/04/the-important-differences-between-price-and-value/
  2. https://keydifferences.com/difference-between-price-cost-and-value.html
  3. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/08/stock-prices-fool.asp

The overriding goal is to help individuals learn how to successfully invest in assets, to build long term wealth and achieve lifetime financial freedom. 

Benjamin Graham

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Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow.

Benjamin Graham, colleague and mentor to billionaire investor Warren Buffett,  is widely acknowledged as the father of value investing. His timeless book, The Intelligent Investor, is considered the value investor’s bible for both individual investors and Wall Street professionals.

Many of Benjamin Graham’s concepts are deemed fundamental for value investors, and his concepts should be studied and followed for anyone who plans to invest long term in the stock market.

For example, “Margin of Safety” is the famous term coined by Ben Graham. In simple terms, an asset worth $100 and bought at $80 has a better Margin of Safety than the same asset purchased at $95. In other words, “A great company is not a great investment if you pay too much for the stock”,  according to Benjamin Graham.

The 10 Benjamin Graham quotes, all of which are valuable in today’s market, tell us that::

  1. “A stock is not just a ticker symbol or an electronic blip; it is an ownership interest in an actual business, with an underlying value that does not depend on its share price.”
  2. “People who invest make money for themselves; people who speculate make money for their brokers.”
  3. “While enthusiasm may be necessary for great accomplishments elsewhere, on Wall Street, it almost invariably leads to disaster.”
  4. “Basically, price fluctuations have only one significant meaning for the true investor. They provide him with an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and to sell wisely when they advance a great deal.”
  5. “Obvious prospects for physical growth in a business do not translate into obvious profits for investors.”
  6. “An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”
  7. “To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks.”
  8. “The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”
  9. “The investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons’ mistakes of judgment.”
  10. “Weighing the evidence objectively, the intelligent investor should conclude that IPO does not stand only for ‘initial public offering.’ More accurately, it is also shorthand for: It’s Probably Overpriced, Imaginary Profits Only, Insiders’ Private Opportunity, or Idiotic, Preposterous, and Outrageous.”

See the source image“I never ask if the market is going to go up or down because I don’t know, and besides, it doesn’t matter. I search nation after nation for stocks, asking: ‘Where is the one that is lowest-priced in relation to what I believe it is worth?’ Forty years of experience have taught me you can make money without ever knowing which way the market is going.”—Sir John Templeton

“Investing isn’t about beating others at their game. It’s about controlling yourself at your own game.” – Benjamin Graham

“Successful investing is about managing risk, not avoiding it.” – Benjamin Graham

References:

  1. https://cabotwealth.com/daily/value-investing/benjamin-graham-quotes-to-improve-your-investing-results/

Investing Principles and Rules

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Value investing is one of the most preferred ways to find strong companies and buy their stocks at a reasonable price in any type of market.

Value investors, such as Warren Buffett and Monish Pabrai, use fundamental analysis and traditional valuation metrics like intrinsic a value to find companies that they believe are being undervalued intrinsically by the stock market.

A stock is not just a ticker symbol; it is an ownership interest in an actual business with an underlying value that does not depend on its share market price.

Inflation eats away at your returns and takes away your wealth. Inflation is easy to overlook and it is important to measure your investing success not just by what you make, but by how much you keep after inflation. Defenses against inflation include:

  • Buying stocks (at the right prices),
  • REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts), and
  • TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities).

The future value of every investment is a function of its present price. The higher the price you pay, the lower your return will be.

No matter how careful you are, the one risk no investor can ever eliminate is the risk of being wrong. Only by insisting on a margin of safety  – by never overpaying, no matter how exciting an investment seems to be – can you minimize your odds of error.

Knowing that you are responsible is fundamental to saving for the future, building wealth and achieving financial freedom. It’s the primary secret to your financial success and it’s inside yourself. If you become a critical thinker and you invest with patient confidence, you can take steady advantage of even the worst bear markets. By developing your discipline and courage, you can refuse to let other people’s mood swings govern your financial destiny. In the end, how your investments behave is much less important than how you behave.

Every investment is the present value of future cash flow. Everything Money

Three things to know is that it’s important to understand and acknowledge that a stock is a piece of a business. Thus, it becomes essential to understand the business..

  • Principle #1: Always Invest with a Margin of Safety – Margin of safety is the principle of buying a security at a significant discount to its intrinsic value, which is thought to not only provide high-return opportunities but also to minimize the downside risk of an investment. No matter how careful you are, the one risk no investor can ever eliminate is the risk of being wrong. Only by insisting on a margin of safety  – by never overpaying, no matter how exciting an investment seems to be – can you minimize your odds of error.
  • Principle #2: Expect Volatility and Profit from It – Investing in stocks means dealing with volatility. Instead of running for the exits during times of market stress, the smart investor greets downturns as chances to find great investments. The guru of value investing Benjamin Graham illustrated this with the analogy of “Mr. Market,” the imaginary business partner of each and every investor. Mr. Market offers investors a daily price quote at which he would either buy an investor out or sell his share of the business. Sometimes, he will be excited about the prospects for the business and quote a high price. Other times, he is depressed about the business’s prospects and quotes a low price. The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism (which makes stocks too expensive) and unjustified pessimism (which makes them too cheap). The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.
  • Principle #3: Know What Kind of Investor You Are – Graham advised that investors know their investment selves. To illustrate this, he made clear distinctions among various groups operating in the stock market.1 Active vs. Passive Investors Graham referred to active and passive investors as “enterprising investors” (requires patience, discipline, eagerness to learn, and lots of time) and “defensive investors.”1 You only have two real choices: the first choice is to make a serious commitment in time and energy to become a good investor who equates the quality and amount of hands-on research with the expected return. If this isn’t your cup of tea, then be content to get a passive (possibly lower) return, but with much less time and work. Graham turned the academic notion of “risk = return” on its head. For him, “work = return.” The more work you put into your investments, the higher your return should be.

Because the stock market has the emotions of fear and greed, the lesson here is that you shouldn’t let Mr. Market’s views dictate your own emotions, or worse, lead you in your investment decisions. Instead, you should form your own estimates of the business’s value based on a sound and rational examination of the facts.

References:

  1. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/07/grahamprinciples.asp
  2. https://jsilva.blog/2020/06/22/intelligent-investor-summary/

A Stock’s Price vs. a Company’s Intrinsic Value

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“Stock prices fluctuate unpredictably.  But company values stay relatively steady.” Kenneth Jeffrey Marshall,

Value investing is one of the most popular ways to find great stocks in any market environment. Value investing represents an approach to investing, where investors evaluate the fundamentals or intrinsic values of companies rather than estimating the future market prices of stocks. The definition of a value stock, for our purposes, is a stock that is underpriced by the market or due to volatility relative to its worth or fundamentals.

Value investing is about finding stocks that are either flying under the radar and are compelling buys, or offer up tantalizing discounts when compared to fair value (or intrinsic value). According to Investopia, intrinsic value is a measure of what an asset is worth. In short, it’s the underlying value of a company and its cash flow.

The idea of value investing involves purchasing great stocks of companies priced by the market well below their intrinsic values, which can give investors a margin of safety. The margin of safety comes from buying good companies at cheap prices. It comes from buying good companies that you understand, and to do so at a discount to companies estimated intrinsic value. That discount is where the margin of safety comes from.

Great stocks shouldn’t get cheap. But sometimes they are.

Value investing also allows traders to detach from their emotions of fear and greed when stock prices fluctuate. It enables them to hold the stocks for long-term rather than buying and selling if they’re feeling wildly optimistic or pessimistic because of stock price and market volatility.

Price and value differ:

  • Price is what something can be purchased or sold for at a given time. Price fluctuates.
  • Value is what something is worth, it fluctuates less.
  • Identify the right price at which to buy stock
  • Hold quality stocks fearlessly during market swings

Value investors understand that over time, the market price of a stock will converge with its actual fundamental worth or intrinsic value. But at a single point in time, it may not. And those single points are enough to purchase good companies cheap or below its intrinsic value.

Value investors also understand that there always comes a time when glamorous businesses stop getting priced like rock stars, and start getting priced like businesses.

Over time, the average price of an asset does converge to the average worth of that asset. But in the short term they can be wildly different, since stock prices fluctuate unpredictably.  But company values stay relatively steady.  This insight is the basis of value investing, according to Kenneth Jeffrey Marshall, author of the investing book, “Good Stocks Cheap: Value Investing with Confidence for a Lifetime of Stock Market”.

The occasions when a stock price is far away from a company’s intrinsic value is when a patient value investor acts.

Value investing is buying companies for less than they’re worth…their intrinsic value. According to the Kenneth Jeffery Marshall, professor, value investor, and the author of “Good Stocks Cheap”, best value investing procedures to utilize include:

  • Do you understand the company
  • Is it a good company:
    • Has it been historically good
    • Will it be good in the future
    • Is it shareholder friendly
  • Is the stock price cheap or at what price will the company’s stock become cheap (margin of safety)

The secret of successful investing: Staying invested and patience. Stock prices can be volatile and can fluctuate unpredictably in the short term.  But the intrinsic values of companies stay relatively steady. Thus, you should chose to invest in companies selling for less than they are worth (intrinsic value) and not over pay for a company.

One way to find companies is by looking at several key metrics and financial ratios, many of which are crucial in the value stock selection process. There are several key metrics that value investors look at, which include:

  • Price to Earnings Ratio (PE). PE shows you how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings in a given stock. The best use of the PE ratio is to compare the stock’s current PE ratio with: a) where this ratio has been in the past; b) how it compares to the average for the industry/sector; and c) how it compares to the market as a whole.
  • Price/Sales ratio. P/Sales compares a given stock’s price to its total sales, where a lower value is generally considered better. This metric is preferred more than other value-focused ones because it looks at sales, something that is far harder to manipulate with accounting tricks than earnings. The best use of P/S ratio to compare it to the S&P 500 average. Also, you can evaluate the trend of the stock’s P/Sales over the past few years.
  • Price/Earnings to Growth ratio (PEG). PEG ratio is another great indicator of value. PEG ratio is a stock’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divided by the growth rate of its earnings for a specified time period. The PEG ratio is used to determine a stock’s value while also factoring in the company’s expected earnings growth, and it is thought to provide a more complete picture than the more standard P/E ratio. A lower PEG may indicate that a stock is undervalued.

The reality is that some of your selected stocks will lose money. That’s why it is important to diversify your investments, so that losses in a stock may be outweighed by gains in other stocks.

Strength of value investing

Deep value factors, such as book-to-price or tangible book-to-price, usually rally first, when actual levels of rates are still low, says Boris Lerner, Global Head of Quantitative Equity Research. Other value factors, such as earnings yield or free-cash-flow yield, tend to pick up later, as rates rise above trend.

Rising interest rates are the primary reason value investing has staying power. When inflation and rising interest rates are trending higher, it can clip the wings of pricey growth stocks, whose valuations are predicated on future returns, which make pricier growth stocks less appealing. When rates go up, it instantly raises the bar on far-out profits needed to justify today’s stock prices.

Because value names are typically mature companies with valuations based on current cash flow, rising rates don’t have the same impact. At the same time, many traditional value sectors, such as financials, directly benefit from rising rates.

Put the strength of value investing to work for you. In a nutshell, the basic tenet of value investing is paying less for a company than its worth.

  • References:
  1. https://growthwithvalue.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Good-Stocks-Cheap-Book-Summary.pdf
  2. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-cheap-value-stocks-buy-140144393.html
  3. https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/397977
  4. https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/value-stocks-forecast-2021
  5. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/949267/interview-holding-stocks-forever-with-professor-kenneth-jeffrey-marshall

Kenneth Jeffrey Marshall teaches value investing in the Masters in Finance program at the Stockholm School of Economics in Sweden, and at Stanford University. He also teaches asset management in the MBA program at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley. Marshall is a past member of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research; he taught Stanford’s first-ever online value investing course in 2015. He earned his MBA at Harvard Business School.

Intrinsic Value of a Company

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“Intrinsic value is an all-important concept that offers the only logical approach to evaluating the relative attractiveness of investments and businesses. Intrinsic value can be defined simply: It is the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life.”  Warren Buffett

Intrinsic value is an important concept to evaluate the relative attractiveness of investments and businesses.

Intrinsic value can be defined as the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life, explains investing guru Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO, Berkshire Hathaway. It measures the value of an investment based on its current and future cash flows. Where market value tells you the current price per share other investors are willing to pay for an asset, intrinsic value shows you the asset’s value based on an analysis of its future cash flows and its actual financial performance.

Essentially, valuing a company intrinsically allows you to look analytically at a business and determine how much cash that business will generate over time, and then you discount the cash flows back to the present day.

Book value vs intrinsic value

In most cases, a company’s book value tends to understate its intrinsic value because many businesses are worth much more than their ‘carrying value’. The ‘carrying value’ is the original cost of an asset as reflected in a company’s books or balance sheet, minus the accumulated depreciation of the asset.

As a result, a company’s intrinsic value often exceed its book value, a result that proves capital was wisely deployed. In many cases, book value is not a reliable indicator of intrinsic value or a true representation of an asset’s fair value or market value. Thus, a company’s book value alone is somewhat meaningless as an indicator of its intrinsic value.

However, intrinsic value tend to be only effective on stocks that are stable and less volatile so that you can reliably valuate. If you see the book value growth and dividends all over the place, your estimates would be very uncertain.

You need 3 factors to determine a company’s intrinsic value:

  • Current free cash flow or owner’s earnings
  • Free cash flow growth rate over an eight to ten year period. Determine free cash flow growth rates by looking at past 5 year and 10 year growth rate.
  • Discount rate to discount future free cash flow to present day.

Discounted future cash flows

Cash taken out of a business in the future is not worth the same as it is today. If you had the money today you could invest it today. Money in the future is partly eaten up by inflation, but more importantly more uncertain if it is there at all.

The calculation of intrinsic value is not so simple. Intrinsic value is an estimate rather than a precise figure, and it is additionally an estimate that must be changed if interest rates move or forecasts of future cash flows are revised.

To calculate owner earnings, or another way to look and to calculate free cash flow, one adds things back in such as depreciation, changes in working capital and such. Buffett feels that “owner’s earnings” more accurately reflects the actual cash flow that an owner receives.

Net present value for the ten years and your discounted terminal value for the 10th year we can calculate the intrinsic value.

When investing in a company, you first must determine the value of the company according to your estimates of discounted cash flow. You want the biggest difference between its intrinsic value (high as possible) and its market price which is the current price of the stock that is traded on the exchange (low as possible). Over time, you should expect the market value to intersect its intrinsic value.

When you arrive at an intrinsic value it will not necessarily match the current market value or price of the stock. In most cases you will find that there is a vast difference. You have potentially found a great company at a bargain and with a margin of safety. If the market price is much higher than the intrinsic value, it is also great. You can avoid the common mistake made by many retail investors of overpaying for a stock.

Knowing the value of a stock is perhaps the most desired skill. And in summary, intrinsic value is simply the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life, according to Warren Buffett.

References:

  1. https://einvestingforbeginners.com/intrinsic-value-warren-buffett-aher/
  2. https://acquirersmultiple.com/2017/02/warren-buffett-how-to-calculate-intrinsic-value/
  3. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/accounting/carrying-amount/
  4. https://www.buffettsbooks.com/how-to-invest-in-stocks/intermediate-course/lesson-21/