“The volatility of the financial markets during the first half of 2020, punctuated by the most sudden, steep decline in U.S. market history, tested the mettle of most investors. Despite the gut-wrenching drop of nearly 34% in the S&P 500 Index in just over a month, Vanguard investors held firm, sticking with their plans and, in some cases, rebalancing into equities during the downturn. This discipline ultimately results in better outcomes over the long term.”
Tim Buckley, Vanguard Chairman and CEO
“Stay the course” doesn’t mean do nothing during market volatility or drop. It means stick to your investment plan. If you’re a long term investor or retired, focus on what you can control, such as your spending and asset mix.
A willingness to weather sudden market drops is an important part of long-term investing. Although it is a natural instinct to seek to preserve capital when the market drops precipitously, too often investors remain on the sidelines and miss the inevitable recovery.
Back in March 2020 during the height of stock market volatility and as many retail investors sold stocks in a panic, most financial experts reminded investors to stay the course. They reminded investors that a balanced, diversified portfolio is built to weather tough markets. The majority of investors (83%) held fast from late February to May and didn’t transact. Even better, 9% of their clients rebalanced into the storm, buying equities and regaining their targeted asset allocations. Rebalancing helps mitigate risk, and it is a staple of their advice.
They strongly recommended keeping a long-term perspective and don’t get thrown off by short-term volatility.
Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis and Financial Advisor Jessica McBride shared how to navigate market volatility in a webcast earlier this week. Hear their thoughts on staying the course during uncertain times: https://t.co/IGJoDxzOr6
Why is staying the course so important? As an extreme example, consider the investor who lost faith in the markets and cashed out on March 23, the low point in the U.S. stock market. Stocks subsequently rebounded more than 39% over the next three months; the unfortunate individual who moved to a money market fund earned a meager 0.14%. Our analysis found that about 85% of investors who fled to cash would have been better off if they had just held their own portfolio.
Financial independence is achievable by anyone who focuses on thing within their control:
– Their savings rate – Choosing the right investment strategy – Keeping investment costs low – Patiently staying the course
Additionally, just as investors should stay even-keeled during stock market downturns, they should ignore the euphoria of a sudden surge in the market and the fear of missing out on easy gains from investing in stocks such as Tesla, Apple or SalesForce.
Staying the course isn’t easy. Instead, focus on what you can do during market volatility, and you (and your portfolio) can get through difficult times of market volatility and declines. Nobody wants to spend less because the market is down. But you can control what you spend.
“If you’ve got $25,000, $50,000, $100,000, you’re better off paying off any debt you have because that’s a guaranteed return.” Mark Cuban
The late Jack Bogle was fond of saying, “Nobody knows nothing.” Which demonstrates that predicting the future is always hard, but 2020 illustrated to us just how difficult it can be. If you would’ve predicted that U.S. domestic stocks would rise over 10% in the same year as a global pandemic, no one would have believed you. But that’s what makes markets so complex and volatile, especially in 2020, a year unlike any other.
The real problem is that there are too many economic and financial market unknowns to consider in the coming years and decade. And, he says, we, as a nation, are not focusing on what he believes to be the single most important concern in the economy: the “soaring cost of health care”. There is also the soon to be problem of pandemic caused ballooning federal deficits and national debt as a percentage of GDP.
Elected officials seem content to continue to kick the health care cost can down the road. But, with all of the potential economic uncertainty and financial market volatility, it’s hard to know what to do when it comes to investing.
The U.S. stock market is the greatest wealth-creation tool in history.
Investing in the stock market allows you to become a partial owner of thousands of profitable and growing companies. And, when paired with the power of compounding, the market is what allows you to save for retirement.
Below are five pieces of advice for investors who are worried about the turbulent economy and volatile financial markets:
Keep investing. Keep putting money away. Despite fluctuations in the market, Investors should continue to save. And if the market dips? That’s okay since a lower market can be beneficial for funding longer-term goals such as retirement and education. Saving is always a good idea, and if you can add to savings when the market is low, you may be in a better position when the market goes back up.
Pay attention to asset allocation. A good starting point for asset allocation, according to most financial advisors is a portfolio consisting of 65% stocks and 35% bonds. That’s it. “Stay out of the exotic stuff,” he says, however, noting that the allocations of assets may change depending on age and circumstances. If you’re younger, for example, you might skew towards investing more in stocks: you have time to take more risks. However, if you’re older, you might consider putting more in bonds, typically more conservative and consistent. But don’t tilt too far in either direction, he warns, noting that you should pay attention to the norms.
Diversification is the key to any successful portfolio, and for good reason–a well-diversified portfolio can help an investor weather through the most turbulent markets. Diversification is the practice of spreading money among different investments to reduce risk. Historically, stocks, bonds, and cash have not moved up and down at the same time. The rationale is that a portfolio constructed of different kinds of assets will, on average, yield higher long-term returns and lower the risk of any individual holding or security. Diversification is a strategy that can be neatly summed up as “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.”
Expect lower returns. For years, the market was flush and paying out significant returns. That’s not going to continue. You should expect to see lower stock returns for the next 10-20 years, noting that 12% returns moving forward isn’t realistic. The same is true when it comes to bonds, he says, claiming that 6% returns are not in the cards. Managing those expectations is key.
Don’t pay attention to fluctuating markets and keep putting money away so long as you are able. Remember that the markets – and your own investment strategy – may change over time. That shouldn’t make you so nervous that you bail. “Stay the course.”
If 2020 taught investors anything, it was, “Nobody knows nothing.”
It’s important to focus on saving and investing. You need to live below your means and invest the difference to accumulate wealth. There’s no backdoor trick around that fact.
“If you avoid the losers, the winners will take care of themselves.”
If you’re new to the world of investing, figuring out how and where to start can be daunting. Investing involves putting your money into an asset with the hope that the asset will grow in value or generate profit over time.
Deciding on which goals, on different kinds of accounts and investments are critical first steps to get you moving in the right direction.
The world of investing can seem vast and overwhelming if you haven’t been a part of it before. But if you take things one step at a time, you can make a plan that’ll get you started on the right path toward your financial goals.
Put your goals first. It’s important to decide what those goals are. Maybe you want to save for retirement.
The Joneses are in debt…Make your lifestyle and purchasing decisions based on what you can afford, not what your peers are buying, and instead of coveting thy neighbor’s car, try to feel smug about your fat retirement account, your zero credit card balances, and the car you own free and clear.
If it’s good for the planet, it’s usually good for your wallet. Think: small cars, programmable thermostats, compact fluorescent lightbulbs, a garden, refilling your water bottle…the list goes on.
“The biggest mistake you can make is to stop laying the foundation of a generational wealth developing portfolio because it feels temporarily monotonous.”
The primary reason you are investing is to create or preserve wealth, and no one cares more about your personal financial situation — saving for the future, investing for the long term, and accumulating wealth — than you do. So be proactive. Do your research before buying a security or fund, ask questions of your adviser and be prepared to sell any investment at any given time if your reasons for selling so dictate.
Consistency is a key characteristic of successful investors. But as many longtime investors know, it’s hard to stay consistent when volatility whipsaws one’s portfolio, or when losses pile up, or even when one’s portfolio is perceived to trail those of one’s peers. All those factors can drive an investor to abandon their plan and make trades they might one day regret.
The secret to successful investing isn’t talent or timing…it’s temperament, according to Jean Chatzky, New York Times Bestselling Author and financial editor at the TODAY Show.. Sad but true–human psychology works against the behaviors that have historically led to good long-term returns.
Your goal should be excellence in investing. This means achieving attractive total returns without the commensurate higher risk. Your objective must be to strive for superior investment returns. Your first investment priority is to produce consistency, protect capital, and produce superior performance in bad times.
It takes superior performance in bad times to prove that those good-time gains were earned through skill, not simply the acceptance of above average risk, according to Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital. Thus, you should place the highest priority on preventing losses. Since, it is should be your overriding belief that, “if you avoid the big losers, the winners will take care of themselves.”
You can have too much of a good thing
The power of asset allocation is all about building an intelligent portfolio of stocks, bonds, and other asset classes also means you’ll have less to worry about and more to gain. Asset allocation and asset class mix are a few of the most important factors in determining performance. Look at the size of a company (or its market capitalization) and its geographical market – U.S., developed international or emerging market.
Financial advisory firm Edward Jones recommends that, when owning individual securities, you consider a diversified portfolio of domestic large-cap and mid-cap stocks. For the more volatile international, emerging-market and small-cap stocks, they favor a mutual fund to help manage risk. Remember, while diversification cannot guarantee a profit or prevent a loss, it can help smooth out performance over time since stocks, bonds, real estate, gold, and other investments move in different directions and are influenced by different economic factors. By holding multiple asset classes, you reduce your risk and increase the return you get per “unit” of risk you take on.
Cloudflare’s platform helps clients secure and accelerate the performance of websites and applications. Motley Fool
Cloudflare (NYSE:NET), which completed its IPO in 2019, is a software-based content delivery network (CDN) internet security company that uses edge computing to protect against cybersecurity breaches. The whole premise of edge computing is to bring the access points closer to the end users. Cloudflare has access points at over 200 cities throughout the world, and they claim that 99% of Internet users are close enough that they can access the network within 0.1 seconds or less.
This internet infrastructure company manages the flow of information online and therefore plays an important role in migrating data from the cloud to the edge. Its platform helps clients secure and accelerate the performance of websites and applications. And, it offers myriad security products and development tools for software engineers and web developers.
The public internet is becoming the new corporate network.
Cloudflare is a leading provider of the network-as-a-service for a work-from-anywhere world. Effectively, the public internet is becoming the new corporate network, and that shift calls for a radical reimagining of network security and connectivity. Cloudflare is focused on making it easier and intuitive to connect users, build branch office on-ramps, and delegate application access — often in a matter of minutes.
No matter where applications are hosted, or employees reside, enterprise connectivity needs to be secure and fast. Cloudflare’s massive global network uses real-time Internet intelligence to protect against the latest threats and route traffic around bad Internet weather and outages.
Edge computing
While cloud computing houses data and software services in a centralized data center and delivers to end users via the internet, edge computing moves data and software out of the cloud to be located closer to the end user.
Edge computing reduces the time it takes to receive information (the latency) and decreases the amount of traffic traveling across the internet’s not-unlimited infrastructure. Businesses that want to increase the performances of their networks for employees, customers, and smart devices can take advantage of edge computing to bring their apps out of the cloud and host them on-site either by owning and using networking hardware or paying for hosting at localized data centers.
The company recently launched Cloudflare One, a network-as-a-service solution designed to replace outdated corporate networks. Cloudflare One acts as a secure access service edge (SASE). Rather than sending traffic through a central hub, SASE is a distributed network architecture. This means employees connect to Cloudflare’s network, where traffic is filtered and security policies are enforced, then traffic is routed to the internet or the corporate network.
This creates a fast, secure experience for employees, allowing them to access corporate resources and applications from any location, on any device.
Enterprise accelerating growth
Cloudflare has gained hundreds of thousands of users with a unique go-to-market strategy, according to Motley Fool. It launches a new product for free (with paid premium features) to acquire lots of individual and small business customers and then markets its new product to paying enterprise customers.
Cloudflare has created a massive ecosystem that it can leverage to land new deals and later expand on those relationships. It’s what makes this company a top edge computing pick since businesses and developers continue to flock to the next-gen edge network platform.
There is increased risk associated with a small-cap, pure-play edge computing company like Cloudflare.
“Global investment managers are more worried about the risk of inflation on markets than they are about the risk of Covid-19.” Bank of America survey
72% of global fund managers expect strong inflation to be transitory, despite US prices surging 5% year-on-year in May, according to Bank of America’s latest survey. The Bank of America survey polled 224 managers with $630 billion in assets under management between March 5 and 11, 2021.
In their collective opinions, trillions of dollars in federal stimulus spending in the United States helped set the economy on the path to recovery, but it’s also fueled concerns about ballooning levels of debt and the rapid inflation that could accompany the injection of so much money into the fragile economic system, according to an article in Forbes.
Despite the risks, investor sentiment overall is still “unambiguously bullish,” the survey found, with 91% of fund managers expecting a stronger economy in the future and nearly half of fund managers are now expecting a v-shaped recovery in global markets.
“Investors (are) bullishly positioned for permanent growth, transitory inflation and a peaceful Fed taper,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA, adding that 63% of the investors believe Fed will signal a taper by September.
“The goal of investing is to maximize your returns and to put your money to work for you.”
Retirement and emergency fund should always be the first two investing goals on your list. But once you’ve got that covered, you probably have a bunch of other goals you want to reach.
Saving for the future and investing for the long term aren’t always easy, but they’re likely to be less painful than the alternatives. A recent study found that many of the people surveyed currently or recently:
Had unpaid medical bills: 26%.
Overdrew their checking account: 22%.
Took a loan from their retirement account: 14%.
Took a hardship withdrawal from their retirement account: 10%.
Had more than one late mortgage payment: 13%.
Filed for bankruptcy: 3.5%.
(Source: FINRA Investor Education Foundation National Financial Capability Study, 2012.)
Emergency funds
Being prepared for life’s surprises can take a burden off your mind—and someday, your wallet. An emergency fund is a stash of money set aside to cover the financial surprises life throws your way. These unexpected events can be stressful and costly.
Here are some of the top emergencies people face:
Job loss.
Medical or dental emergency.
Unexpected home repairs.
Car troubles.
Unplanned travel expenses.
3 benefits of having emergency money
Aside from financial stability, there are pros to having an emergency reserve of cash.
— It helps keep your stress level down.
It’s no surprise that when life presents an emergency, it threatens your financial well-being and causes stress. If you’re living without a safety net, you’re living on the “financial” edge—hoping to get by without running into a crisis.
Being prepared with an emergency fund gives you confidence that you can tackle any of life’s unexpected events without adding money worries to your list.
— It keeps you from spending on a whim.
You’ve heard the saying “out of sight, out of mind.” That’s the best way to store your emergency money. If the cash is only as far away as your closest debit card, you may be tempted to use it for something frivolous like a designer cocktail dress or big-screen TV—not exactly an emergency.
Keeping the money out of your immediate reach means you can’t spend it on a whim, no matter how much you’d like to.
And by putting it in a separate account, you’ll know exactly how much you have—and how much you may still need to save.
— It keeps you from making bad financial decisions.
There may be other ways you can quickly access cash, like borrowing, but at what cost? Interest, fees, and penalties are just some of the drawbacks
Retirement
Saving for retirement might be the most important thing you ever do with your money. And the earlier you begin, the less money it will take.
When it comes to preparing for retirement, there are a lot of things you can’t control—the future of Social Security, tax rates, and inflation, for example. But one big thing that you can control is the amount you save.
Social Security shouldn’t be your only retirement plan since Social Security was never meant to be anyone’s sole source of retirement income.
In fact, a 30-year-old making $50,000 per year today—and who might realistically expect to make substantially more by the time he or she retires—can expect less than $22,000 per year from Social Security at age 67 (in today’s dollars).
In the past, pensions often offered an additional source of income for retirees. But pension plans are becoming rare in today’s world, and it’s more important than ever to take advantage of the opportunity to save for your future.
Keep in mind that on average, Social Security payments make up only about 33% of Americans’ retirement income, according to Social Security Administration.
Spending now could mean you’ll pay for it later
Perhaps you’d rather spend your money on other things that are more fun than saving for retirement.
But because compounding can enhance the value of your savings, the “pain” of each dollar you save now can be greatly outweighed by the flexibility you gain later.
Of course, we’re not suggesting you’d be better off squeezing the last drop of enjoyment from your life.
But we think that knowing you’ll be all set to meet your basic needs later—with enough left over to let you comfortably do the things you look forward to in retirement—is worth going without a few treats now and then.
Choosing to spend less on certain expenses now could make a huge impact in the long run! For example, you could spend $3,600 a year on payments for a new car during the next 5 years … or you could watch that money grow to $80,000 over the next 40 years!*
Control what you can
In the end, the future of Social Security isn’t the only thing that’s out of your hands. Tax rates will almost certainly change between now and your retirement date, and inflation will continue to increase prices over time. Other government programs, like Medicare, might also change.
But there’s one thing that only you can completely control: how much you save. Start now and you might be surprised at how little you notice the sacrifice.
According to TIAA, there are five big financial goals anyone seeking financial well-being should include on their list:
Max out your 401(k) / 403(b). One rule of thumb says that by the time you turn 30, you should have the equivalent of your annual salary saved (that’s all savings, not just retirement assets); double your salary saved by age 35; three times the amount by age 40. And, it’s essential to take full advantage of your employer match, if you have one: With a $50,000 salary from an employer matching up to 6% of your contributions, you’d be turning down $3,000 (free money) each year! Letting your employer match go to waste would be like you accepting a $3,000 pay cut without a fight. In the absence of an employer plan, contribute to an IRA instead, even though the target is much lower (the annual contribution rate for 2021 is $7,000.
Build an emergency fund. Each year brings economic uncertainty to many and, even for the financially secure, life happens in the form of medical bills, domestic catastrophes and other unplanned expenses. As a general rule, it’s good to maintain an emergency fund that would cover three to six months of living expenses in case you find yourself unemployed. Once you’ve calculated how much you should save, set aside a certain amount from each paycheck to set you on your way.
Get your financial affairs in order. Estate planning is something you can’t afford to ignore. Getting your financial affairs in order, and designating the right people to manage them in the event of your incapacity or death, takes a huge weight off your shoulders. Necessary documents include durable powers of attorney, which designate someone to manage your day-to-day affairs, and a living will or healthcare directive to instruct your doctor what to do if you’re unable to make medical decisions for yourself. Don’t forget to inform those assigned with the task of handling your estate, who need to know the location of your will and other estate planning documents.
Give yourself a debt deadline. Bad debts. You know which ones they are: the loan you took out to pay for a wedding; the credit card with the sky-high interest rate whose balance keeps rolling like a New York subway car. Convincing yourself that minimum monthly payments are okay? How about setting a deadline for repayment and getting rid of this exponentially growing interest?
Create a budget (and stick to it). If you find that your spending is a bit out of control, you may want to press the reset button on your out-of-control spending behavior with a budget.
Setting these five money goals is enough to start you well on your way toward financial well-being.
“Greater fool theory states that investors can achieve positive returns by buying an asset without concern for valuation fundamentals and other important factors because someone else will buy it at a higher price.”
Simply stated, investors expect to make a profit on the stocks they purchase because another investor (the “greater fool”) will be willing to pay even more for the stock, regardless if the stock’s price is overvalued based on fundamentals analysis or long-term performance outlooks.
According to The Motley Fool, this philosophy relies on the expectation that someone else will get caught up in market momentum (frenzy) or have their own reasons for why the asset is worth more than the price you paid.
In the short term, popular sentiment plays the biggest role in shaping stock market pricing action, but fundamental factors including revenue, earnings, cash flow, and debt determine how a company’s stock performs over longer periods.
In short, it is possible to achieve strong returns by using the greater fool theory, but it’s risky and far from the best path to achieving strong long-term performance.
Specifically with regard to the stock market, the Greater Fool Theory becomes relevant when the price of a stock goes up so much that it is being driven by the expectation that buyers for the stock can always be found, not by the intrinsic value (cash flows) of the company.
The Greater Fool Theory is a very risky, speculative strategy that is not recommended especially for long-term investors.
“It’s not how much money you make, but how much money you keep, how hard it works for you, and how many generations you keep it for.” Robert Kiyosaki, Rich Dad Poor Dad
Investing, which involves putting your money to work, is a great first step toward building wealth for yourself and your family. If you think investing is gambling, you’re doing it wrong. The world of investing requires discipline, planning and patience. And, the gains you see over decades can be exciting. The three most common categories of investments, referred to as asset classes, include:
Stocks – which are a share in a company. These tend to be riskier investments, but also typically offer more potential for profit over time.
Bonds – which are a share of debt issued by a business or the government. These are safer investments, typically returning a lower profit than stocks over time.
Cash and cash equivalents – which are readily available cash and short-term investments like certificates of deposit (CDs). These are the safest investments, but typically return little profit over time.
Before you start investing, it is important for you to understand a few basic concepts and definitions, such as:
Risk Tolerance
Risk tolerance is basically your emotional ability to deal with losing money. If you invested $1,000 today, could you deal with it being worth $500 for a period of time? That’s possible if you invest heavily in stocks, which tend to increase in value over time but can be volatile from one day to the next. If you answered yes to being okay losing a great deal of money for a period of time, then you have a high risk tolerance.
Time Horizon
Time horizon is the amount of time before you want to use your money. If you’re planning to use the money to make a down payment on a home within the next three years, you have a short time horizon and would likely have less risk tolerance. If you’re not planning to use the money until you retire in 30 years, then you have a long time horizon and can afford to take on more risk.
Asset Allocation
Asset allocation is the percentage of stocks, bonds or cash you own. If you have a high risk tolerance and long time horizon, you’re likely to want a larger percentage of stocks because you’ll be able to weather ups and downs and make more money over the long term. On the other hand, if you have a low risk tolerance and short time horizon, you probably want more cash and bonds so that you don’t lose money right before you need it.
Stocks, bonds and cash tend to respond differently to market conditions (one may go up when the others go down). Asset allocation helps you spread your money so that when one asset class unexpectedly zigs, your whole portfolio doesn’t zig along with it. In this way, asset allocation can help ensure your portfolio is correctly positioned to help you reach your financial goals, no matter what is happening in the market.
Diversification
Diversification splits your investments among different groupings or sectors in order to reduce risk. That includes your asset allocation. But it also includes where you invest within asset classes. For instance, you might diversify between stocks in companies located within the United States and stocks in companies located in Asia.
Different sectors of the economy do better at different times. It’s tough to predict which one will do well in any given year. So when you diversify and own stocks across different sectors, you are positioned to make money on whatever sector is performing well at the time. A well-diversified portfolio can help lessen the impact of market ups and downs on your portfolio.
Rebalancing
If you’ve done a good job with asset allocation and diversifying, then the balance of your portfolio is likely going to get out of whack over time as one sector does better than another. For instance, let’s say you wanted 10 percent of your stocks to be companies in Asia. If companies in Asia have a great year, those companies may now make up 15 percent of your stocks. In that case you’ll want to sell some of those stocks and use that money to buy more stocks (or even bonds) in parts of your portfolio that didn’t do as well.
Rebalancing on a regular basis (once or twice a year, for example) can help ensure your portfolio remains aligned with your goals. And because it provides a disciplined approach to investing, portfolio rebalancing also may prevent you from buying or selling investments based on emotion.
Dollar Cost Averaging
Dollar cost averaging (DCA) involves putting your investment plan on autopilot. With DCA, you invest a set amount at set intervals (for example, $200 every month) in the market. By investing systematically, you’ll buy more shares of an investment when the market is lower, fewer when the market is higher, and some when the market is in between. Over time, this may help you to pay a lower average price for the total shares you purchase.
DCA takes the emotion out of investing, helping you to start on your investment plan sooner, rather than later. And once you begin, DCA can also help you remain focused on your goals, no matter what’s happening in the market. It helps make investing a habit.
Capital Gains
Capital gains is an increase in the value of an asset or investment over time. Capital gains is measured by the difference between the current value, or market value, of an asset or investment and its purchase price, or the value of the asset or investment at the time it was acquired {cost basis}.
Realized capital gains and losses occur when an asset is sold, which triggers a taxable event. Unrealized gains and losses, sometimes referred to as paper gains and losses, reflect an increase or decrease in an investment’s value but are not considered a capital gain that should be treated as a taxable event.
Fiscal Fact: The average white household had $402,000 in unrealized capital gains in 2019, compared with $94,000 for Black households and $130,000 for Hispanic or Latino households. These disparities have generally widened over time. Source: Tax Policy Center https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/fiscal-fact/unrealized-capital-gains-ff-05102021
Capital gains are classified as either short-term or long-term. Short-term capital gains, defined as gains realized in securities held for one year or less, are taxed as ordinary income based on the individual’s tax filing status and adjusted gross income. Long-term capital gains, defined as gains realized in securities held for more than one year, are usually taxed at a lower rate than regular income.
“If you want to become really wealthy, you must have your money work for you. The amount you get paid for your personal effort is relatively small compared with the amount you can earn by having your money make money.” John D. Rockefeller
Before you start investing or putting your money to work for your, do your homework and research. Once you’ve made a decision, make sure to re-evaluate the assets in your portfolio on a regular basis. A good asset today may not necessarily be a good asset in the future.
And, don’t panic during the inevitable setbacks and don’t be fearful during the inevitable stock market corrections that all long-term investors face. If the reasoning behind the investment decision was sound when purchased, stick with the assets, and they should eventually recover and grow.
If you pay any attention to the stock market, you probably know that volatility is actually a normal part of investing.
Stock market volatility is a measure of how much the stock market’s overall value fluctuates up and down. A stock with a price that fluctuates wildly—hits new highs and lows or moves erratically—is considered highly volatile. A stock that maintains a relatively stable price has low volatility. according to Investopedia.
Stock market volatility is most commonly measured by standard deviation, which is a measure of the amount of variability around an average. The larger the standard deviation, the higher the volatility will be.
Volatility is often associated with fear, which tends to rise during bear markets, stock market crashes, and other big downward moves. However, volatility doesn’t measure direction. It’s simply a measure of how big the price swings are. You can think of volatility as a measure of short-term uncertainty.
“Keep it simple and avoid complications in the markets.”
Sooner or later, most investors realize that the stock market is actually a ‘market of stocks’ that is chaotic, dictated by investors’ emotions of fear and greed, and influenced by interest rates and macro economic conditions. Good stocks don’t always advance. Bad stocks don’t always fall. Reality is rarely ever as bullish, or as bearish, as forecasted by financial analysts and strategists.
What is certain is that a quasi-invisible force known as volatility is always always present, threatening to disrupt the market’s delicate equilibrium and sanity.
“One of the hardest parts about being a long-term investor is the fact that sometimes your money is going to get incinerated and there’s nothing you can do about it.” Barry Ritholtz
Investors have a few primary ways to respond.
They can sit tight and act like long-term investors. Time tends to reward such behavior, though research has shown that it is as difficult to practice as it is uncommon.
Most investors never hold stocks long enough to benefit from the fact that the market rises over time. Investors typically buy too late and sell too early. They routinely “greed in” and “panic out” of stocks. They hold stocks for just a few years — or worse, a few months — rather than carefully curating a portfolio over decades, which means most investors behave like salmon swimming upstream. They struggle against the stock market’s natural rhythms.
Rotations is when smart and retail money runs after gains in certain sectors until a rally there becomes exhausted, and then their money runs to other sectors.
Investors can use options to more effectively navigate the stock market. A well-placed put or call can make all the difference in an uncertain market. A well-placed options contract can turn the unpredictably of investing into a defined outcome.
There are two types of options. A call option gives investors the right to buy a stock at a certain price and time. A put option gives investors the right to sell a stock at a certain price and time. An easy way to remember the difference between puts and calls is that a call gives you the right to “call in” a winning stock, while a put gives you the right to “put off” a bad stock on someone else.
Investors buy puts when they want to protect stock that they own from losing value.
Investors buy calls when they want to own a stock they believe will increase in value.
Many investors sell puts and calls to generate income.
Many people pick options that expire in three months or less. When you buy an options contract that expires in a year or more, you spend more money because time equals risk.
Simplicity is everything. It’s important to keep your trading strategy simple and avoid complications in the markets. Since everything could change tomorrow, or not, and thus we fall back on something we learned during the dark days of the 2008-09 financial crisis: Focus on the facts that have held up over time
Consider keeping a list of stocks or exchange-traded funds you would like to buy during market sell offs or crashes.
When in doubt, always remember: “Bad investors think of ways to make money. Good investors think of ways to not lose money.”
To keep from panicking when stock market volatility ticks up, it’s important to realize that volatility comes with the territory when you decide to invest. The stock market will always have its ups and downs, and there’s no use trying to predict what’s going to happen. So if you’re investing for the long term, consider basing your decisions on your goals. timeline and tolerance for risk, rather than on what’s happening in the markets from one day to the next.
Also, remember that being diversified is one way to help manage your exposure to volatility. By spreading your money out over various asset classes you’re also spreading out your market risk, and ensuring your portfolio’s results aren’t based on the performance of one type of investment.
