Most explosive stock market rally in history

We’re witnessing the most explosive stock market in history. We’re seeing a spectacular stock market rally.

We’ve witnessed the greatest 50-day rally in the history of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 has increased 37% over the past 50-days.

Ten weeks ago, March 23, 2020, the Dow dropped all the way to 18,591 points. The biggest gain ever in such a short timeframe. Today, June 4, 2020, the Dow Jones index has peaked above 26,274 points.

Why…T.I.N.A. (There is no alternative to stocks)

There are fewer publicly traded companies to invest in today than thirty years ago. In the 1990’s, there were about 8,000 companies listed on American stock exchanges. Today, there are about 4,000 publicly traded companies on American stock exchanges which represents a fifty percent cut.

Furthermore, there are fewer shares of company stocks available to be traded. Share buy-backs by U.S. companies have taken 20% of companies’ shares off the market.

Essentially, the number of available shares have been dramatically cut, yet the demand for share have been vastly increased the demand for shares. The market is awash in cash from the Federal Reserve loose monetary policy and trillions of dollars from 401K plans.

Economics 101 reveals that cutting the supply of stocks while increasing the demand for stocks cause the price of stocks to go up.

And don’t forget about investor psychology, the economy has entered the return to work phase and the economy is on the move again. Animal Spirits are on the rise again.

Regarding the S&P 500 index, 159 stocks in the index are up for the year an average of 13% / 350 are down year-to-date an average of 20%. And, there are $4 trillion still sitting on the sidelines in money market accounts.

FOMO (Fear of missing out)

Fear of missing out can be extremely expensive. When the equity market has explosive moves where it goes up this high and this fast, an investor can feel that they’re “being left out and left behind”. As a result, they start paying top dollar for expensive and overbought stocks. That is no longer investing…investors are buying high hoping for higher.


Sources: CNBC and Fox Business News

6 habits of successful investors| Fidelity Investment

Planning, consistency, and sound fundamentals can improve results.

FIDELITY VIEWPOINTS – 03/19/2020

For most people, achieving success as an investor means reaching their financial goals, like owning a home, paying for college, or having the retirement you want.

What separates the most successful investors from the rest are habits. It is the reason why some individuals successfully accumulate wealth while others seem unable to save and invest successfully. Essentially , it can be traced back to daily habits.

Here are the 6 habits of successful investors that we’ve witnessed over the years—and how to make them work for you. Read more: https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/investing-ideas/six-habits-successful-investors?immid=100864&imm_pid=272043316&imm_aid=a466972197&dfid=&buf=99999999

Investing can be complex, but some of the most important habits of successful investors are pretty simple. If you build a smart plan and stick with it, save enough, make reasonable investment choices, and be aware of taxes, you will have adopted some of the key traits that may lead to success.


References:

  1. https://grow.acorns.com/7-daily-rich-habits-anyone-can-adopt/

The Power of Compounding

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” Albert Einstein

When money is invested, it produces earnings that can then be reinvested, so that you receive earnings on your earnings in addition to the earnings on your original investment.

This added boost is the power of compounding, and the longer the money is invested, the more powerful are its effects. Over long periods of time—20, 30, or 40 years—the effects of compounding at different rates can be substantial. For instance, if you invested $10,000 today and it earned 8% annually, you would have $100,626 at the end of 30 years; if it earned 9% you would have $132,676 after 30 years. That’s a $32,000 difference with only a 1% difference in return annually.

In retirement planning, there are advantages of earning higher returns over long time periods. But, keep in mind that small differences in investment return assumptions can turn into large differences in accumulation.

Start early and reap the rewards

 “Letting your money work for you is a key component of saving for retirement. Compound interest, dollar cost averaging, tax-deferred savings, and diversification help lower your risk and boost your return on investment over time. Compound interest is the interest on your principal plus interest on the interest you earned previously.

For example, a single investment of $10,000 at 5% compounded annually earns $10,789 in interest over 15 years for a net amount of $20,789. Straight interest would accrue at the rate of $500 per year, $7,500 in total interest, for a net amount of $17,500. When interest is reinvested and compounds at 5%, it adds another $3,298 to the value. That is the magic of compound interest.” Taylor Larimore et al, The Bogleheads’ Guide to Retirement Planning

Compounding gives invested money the ability to grow over time.  The Rule of 72 is the number of years needed to double invested money at a given interest rate. Divide 72 by the interest rate…money invested at 10% will double in 7.2 years

Be conservative in your estimates.

Chinese Stocks are Risky

Recently Luckin Coffee (LK) issued a press release admitting that their chief operating officer had fabricated a significant amount of sales from the second quarter through the fourth quarter of 2019.  This caused Luckin Coffee share price to fall 82% in U.S. trading and leaving investor with little recourse.

Luckin, a rival of Starbucks in China, happen to be a fairly new public company that opened its initial public offering (IPO) in May 2019.  In the case of Luckin, investors needed to exercise caution when a company goes from zero to a $3 billion market capitalization valuation in less than two years.  Furthermore, it is important to understand that what occurred with Luckin Coffee can occur with other Chinese companies with stocks listed on U.S. equity market exchanges since they are not required to comply with Security and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) strict disclosure and transparency requirements.

Chinese stocks and emerging-markets stocks

China is the world’s second-largest economy and is still growing as an emerging market. Investing in young Chinese companies can be extremely risky.  Although the growth available in China is clearly appealing, there are a number of inherent risks for investors.  The risks include currency manipulation, ineffectual securities reporting standards, the draconian influence of China’s communist government, and the potential for financial fraud.

Recent economic and equity market history are rife with financial frauds and illegal activity related to Chinese companies listed on U.S. equity exchanges.  Many seasoned U.S. investors advise that Americans should avoid investing in Chinese stocks. They even recommend avoiding the few larger Chinese companies with established histories and strong management track records.

Delisting Chinese Stocks

To avoid future Luckin Coffee frauds perpetrated on unsuspecting American investors, “Chinese companies should be delisted from American exchanges if they don’t follow U.S. securities laws”, according to Senator Marco Rubio.  Senator Rubio believes that increase oversight is vitally required for Chinese and other foreign companies listed on American stock exchanges. In fact, he and colleagues have offered legislation that calls for delisting firms that are out of compliance with U.S. regulators for a period of three years.

Bottomline, it is difficult to trust the financial statements coming out of some high-flying companies based there. Fundamentals don’t matter if you can’t be sure the numbers are real and it is difficult to invest in Chinese companies that might be trying to deceive investors.


References:

  1. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/luckin-coffee-chairman-defaults-loan-152735017.html
  2. https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/topstocks/investing-lessons-from-the-luckin-coffee-accounting-fraud-debacle/ar-BB12eas4
  3. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/08/marco-rubio-chinese-firms-should-be-delisted-in-us-if-they-dont-follow-laws.html

Vanguard will offer Private Equity Investments

Vanguard turns to what many view as the ‘dark side’ of investing, the world of complex, exclusive, expensive private equity investments

Vanguard Group plans to offer a private equity investments which will be managed by an outside firm called HarbourVest Partners. Initially, the private equity investment will be available only to institutions such as endowments and nonprofit foundations. But, Vanguard intends to move quickly beyond institutional investors.

Over time and as regulations change, Vanguard hopes to offer these private equity strategies to its individual, non-qualified retail investors.

Typically, private equity firms charge fees that are 2% of assets a year in management fees, plus 15% to 20% or higher of total returns in annual performance fees. Generally, money is locked up for years with little liquidity. This is why the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has long kept smaller, non qualified investors out of them.

In a statement, Vanguard chief executive Tim Buckley said, “Private equity will complement our leading index and actively managed funds, as we seek to broaden access to this asset class and improve client outcomes. While this strategy will be initially available to institutional advised clients, we aim to expand access to investors in additional channels over time. For individual investors in particular, this partnership will present an incredible opportunity — access and terms they could not get on their own.”

Contrasting Viewpoint

Eric Walters, founder of Silvercrest Wealth Planning, believes Vanguard’s move is “fraught with risks.” He added, “I think it could work if they are able to access top-quartile private equity managers, most of which are closed to new subscriptions”. Additionally, he added, “Managers below the top quartile often don’t do any better than public equities and often do worse. When you add the high fees and long holding periods, accessing lower-tier managers would be a bad deal for Vanguard clients.”

About Vanguard

Vanguard is one of the world’s largest investment management companies. As of December 31, 2019, Vanguard managed $6.2 trillion in global assets. The firm, headquartered in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, offers 424 funds to its more than 30 million investors worldwide. For more information, visit vanguard.com.

About HarbourVest

HarbourVest is an independent, global private markets investment specialist with over 35 years of experience and more than $68 billion in assets under management, as of December 31, 2019.


References:

  1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2020/02/05/vanguard-pushes-into-private-equity-by-accessing-dealmakers-like-stephen-schwarzman-robert-smith-and-orlando-bravo/#3431f0bf2760
  2. https://www.harbourvest.com/news/vanguard-and-harbourvest-announce-private-equity-partnership
  3. https://www.inquirer.com/business/vanguard-harbourvest-mortimer-tim-buckley-private-equity-20200206.html
  4. https://www.investmentnews.com/vanguard-puts-private-equity-investments-on-the-menu-187888

Make Money in Stocks | Forbes

Everyone can grow life-changing wealth and have strong investment results over the long term.

Investing in stocks is one of the most important financial skills you need to master. History has shown that the earlier you start and the longer you stay invested in the market the better your investments will be. On average, stocks have given an annualized return of around 10%. At that rate, your investments would double every 7.2 years.

Let’s say you start with $10,000. After a 40 year career, that turns into at least $320K from doubling 5 times. That’s from a single $10,000 investment.

And, it is important to understand that you can’t accumulate wealth off just your salary. Savings and bonds won’t do it either, the return isn’t high enough to make an impact during your lifetime.

But, you should not invest in stocks in a vacuum. It is important to develop a financial road map to help you invest to meet a goal, whether this means sending the kids to college, retire well, buy a house, get that BMW or some marvelous combination thereof.

When you have a financial plan, you have a road map to guide your investing to help you reach your financial goals. The important thing is that you keep your investments on track in order to reach your financial goals. 

Nick Murray may have said it best when he said,

“All financial success comes from acting on a plan. A lot of financial failures come from reacting to the market.”

Whether in real estate, stocks or even owning a business, you will never be able to achieve financial freedom without investing in assets and benefiting from the magic of compounding interest.

Few people will be able to save enough for a secure retirement without investing.

To read more: https://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/make-money-in-stocks/


Sources:

  1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidrae/2020/03/10/4-investor-mistakes/#129fd4df15bb
  2. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidrae/2020/03/22/is-now-the-time-to-buy-stocks/#3fca8a8d1829

Market Timing

“The idea that a bell rings to signal when investors should get into or out of the market is simply not credible. After nearly 50 years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done it successfully and consistently. I don’t even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently.” Jack Bogle

During the 2008 financial crisis and economic uncertainty, global financial markets were melting down and Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy protection.  The resulting economic recession and global slowdown brought unemployment rates in the U.S. as high as 10 percent.  And, the U.S. stock market lost trillion of dollars in value as the S&P 500 experienced a single day drop of 90.17 points, nearly 9.04 percent.

Americans, and specifically American investors, believed inherently that the global economy and financial markets were collapsing.  Fear and panic selling took hold worldwide.  Both professional and retail investors started to sell and it didn’t matter what they sold.  Yet, Warren Buffett was buying stocks that were rapidly falling in price when everyone else was panic selling and sprinting to cash.

“I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett

According to Buffett, “A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful,” he wrote in the NY Times.

Additionally, Buffett wrote in his 2018 shareholder letter.

“Seizing the opportunities when offered does not require great intelligence, a degree in economics or a familiarity with Wall Street jargon such as alpha and beta.  What investors then need instead is an ability to both disregard mob fears or enthusiasms and to focus on a few simple fundamentals. A willingness to look unimaginative for a sustained period — or even to look foolish — is also essential.”

There are several valuable lessons investors learned from the 2008 financial crisis that can be applied towards today pandemic driven crisis.  The lessons are based on the same principles that allowed Buffett to invest so effectively during the crisis. To sum them up:

  • Don’t panic and sell stocks simply because the market is crashing. When times get tough, Buffett is invariably a net buyer of stocks. For this reason, he keeps billions of dollars in cash on the sidelines — so he can take advantage during times of investors’ fear and panic selling.
  • Focus on best-in-breed companies trading at discounts. A great example was Buffett’s investment in Bank of America and Goldman-Sachs.
  • Don’t try to time the market. Just because the market has crashed doesn’t mean it can’t go down more. It certainly can. Instead of trying to invest at the absolute market bottom, focus on stocks you want to hold for the long term.
  • Understand that no stock or industry is completely immune. Back then, many investors had a disproportionate amount of their portfolio in financial stocks because they were thought to be safe.  Essentially, no stock or industry are safe.

Warren Buffett believes intrinsically that “it is a waste of time and hazardous to investment success trying to time the market”.  In a 1994 annual letter to shareholders, Buffett wrote:

“I never have an opinion about the market because it wouldn’t be any good and it might interfere with the opinions we have that are good.  If we’re right about a business, if we think a business is attractive, it would be very foolish for us to not take action on that because we thought something about what the market was going to do. … If you’re right about the businesses, you’ll end up doing fine.”


Bottom line: As long as investors keep a level head and maintain a long-term perspective as Buffett does, investors should come out of it just fine, if not stronger than they went in.


Sources:

  1. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/14/warren-buffetts-rule-for-investing-during-the-financial-crisis.html
  2. https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/09/23/10-years-later-warren-buffett-and-the-financial-cr.aspx
  3.  https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/08/warren-buffett-says-he-never-tries-to-time-stocks-i-never-have-an-opinion-about-the-market.html
  4. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/24/highlights-from-warren-buffetts-annual-letter.html

Developing Good Financial Habits

“It’s not the big things that add up in the end; it’s the hundreds, thousands, or millions of little things that separate the ordinary from the extraordinary.” Darren Hardy, author of The Compound Effect

Financial planning in small steps doesn’t take large sums of money to start.  In fact, financial planning can have a profound impact on financial security for Americans, especially lower-income households, by helping people improve their saving and budgeting habits. A written plan helps savers prioritize their goals and provides a way to measure success.

A disciplined, steady approach to saving, investing and ruthlessly managing spending wins out. Wealth-building habits don’t involve a get-rich-quick scheme —it is a slow, gradual process to accumulate wealth,” you must be persistent and consistent.

Savings habits

“The real cost of a four-dollar-a-day coffee habit over 20 years is $51,833.79. That’s the power of the Compound Effect.” Darren Hardy

While investing may appear at times to be complicated and risky, saving is pretty straightforward. Two-pronged approach to increase the saving amount:

  • Generate more cash inflow.
  • Reduce cash outflow.

Spending and saving often go hand in hand because whatever you don’t spend is potential savings. That’s why it is important to focus on buying things that will hold value or appreciate in value instead of allowing expenses to eat into savings through continuous consumption. To accumulate wealth, it is critical to manage expenses tightly. Instead of living just within your means, it is important to live below your means.

One way to reduce outflow is to maximize tax savings through retirement plans such as the 401(k). Another is to pay off debt and prioritize by paying the debts with the highest interest rate first.

Keep an eye on the prize

“There is a one thing that 99 percent of “failures” and “successful” folks have in common — they all hate doing the same things. The difference is successful people do them anyway.” Darren Hardy

Following the adage that it becomes easier to reach your destination or to achieve a successful outcome with an end goal in mind. Those who gain wealth believe that everything they do is ultimately done to fulfill their financial goals. For example, people should set a “retirement number” and a deadline for reaching that number. That number is the goal for how much cash and investments they need for a comfortable retirement and the deadline is the date to achieve the goal. Every time you put money toward saving, you’re a step closer to the prize.

Set It, But Don’t Forget It

Setting up an automated savings and payment system is one habit highly successful people practice to keep their financial house in order. They automate their savings, investing, bill payments and money transfers. But they don’t ‘set it and forget it’ once they set up the automated system. They know it’s important to maintain awareness and manage regularly, at least weekly, where their money’s going.

Automatic saving and investing

People have to be consistently reminded that to develop habits of saving and investing. The more you do develop the habit of saving and investing for the long term, the easier it will become. Consequently, it is recommended to set automatic savings protocols, if necessary, so a portion of your earnings goes directly from your paycheck into a separate savings account.

Habitually and automatically save 10% to 20% of every paycheck.


References:

  1. https://www.bankrate.com/finance/investing/financial-habits-of-wealthy.aspx
  2. https://jamesclear.com/book-summaries/the-compound-effect

The Wealthy Next Door

To accumulate wealth, you should start by reading and studying the behaviors of people who have successfully accumulated wealth and achieved financial independence.

In the groundbreaking financial book, “The Millionaire Next Door: Surprising Secrets of America’s Wealthy”, written in 1996 by William Danko and Thomas Stanley, found that people who appear wealthy may not actually be wealthy.

Their findings reveal that people who appear wealthy tend to overspend or live paycheck to paycheck. They often overspend on symbols of wealth like luxury vehicles and large homes — but actually have modest or negative personal net worths. On the other hand, wealthy individuals tend to live modestly in middle-income communities, drive modest vehicles, and shop at Costco Warehouse.

Lessons Learned from “The Millionaire Next Door” are enlightening on how the wealthy actually spend and save. Instead of appearing to be wealthy, they tend to:

Understand that Income Does Not Equal Wealth

It is a fact that higher-income households tend to have more wealth than lower- and middle-income households. But the size of a paycheck explains only approximately 30% of the variation of wealth among households. What really matters is how much of the income is not spent on discretionary things, but is saved and invested. On average, wealthy individuals invest nearly 20% of their income. And, it finds that those in the top quartile of wealth accumulation are prodigious accumulators of wealth (PAWs), according to Danko and Stanley

Work with a Budget

The majority of wealthy individuals have a budget. Of those who don’t, they have what the authors called “an artificial economic environment of scarcity,” more commonly known as “pay yourself first.” In other words, they invest a good chunk of their income before they can spend any of it. As the authors wrote, “It’s much easier to budget if you visualize the long-term benefits of this task.”

Manage their Spend

Nearly two-thirds of the wealthy can answer know how much their family spends each year for food, clothing, and shelter. In contrast, only 35% of high-income non-wealthy answered yes to this question. The wealthy manage and track their spending.

Have Defined Financial Goals

About two-thirds of wealthy have clearly defined short-, intermediate- and long-Term goals. Many of the wealthy are retired and have already reached their goal of financial independence.

Dedicate Time To Financial Planning and Education

Creating a budget, goal setting and financial planning all take time, but the wealthy were willing to spend it. Danko and Stanley found that people they labeled “prodigious accumulators of wealth” (PAW) spend many hours per month planning their investments. In fact, they found “a strong positive correlation” between investment planning and wealth accumulation. Each week, each month, each year, the wealthy plan their investments.

Buy and Hold Smaller Homes

Your purchase of a home — and how often you choose a new one — will determine your ability to accumulate wealth. According to The Millionaire Next Door, that wealthy family has been next door for quite a while. Half of the wealthy have lived in the same house for more than 20 years.

Stay Married

The majority of wealthy people are married and stay married to the same person. Several studies have shown that people who are married accumulate more wealth than those who are single or divorced. Conversely, it’s important to partner with someone who possesses similar healthy financial behavior and habits.

Buy and Hold Pre-Owned Vehicle

The majority of wealthy individuals own their cars, rather than lease. Approximately a quarter have a current-year model, but another quarter drive a car that is four years old or older. More than a third tend to buy used vehicles.

Live Happier Lives

Bottomline, living below your means is the one sure way to accumulate wealth and to live happier. Since, there exist a peace of mind living below your means and saving money. Danko and Stanley’s research indicates that, “financially independent people are happier than those in their same income/age cohort who are not financially secure.”

Essentially, when it comes to financial security and retirement planning, adopting the lifestyle of the wealthy means you can save more toward your financial goals and destination. That’s a formula that can help anyone to accumulate wealth and achieve financial independence.


  • References:
    1. Thomas J. Stanley, and William D. Danko, The Millionaire Next Door: The Surprising Secrets of America’s Wealthy Paperback, November 16, 2010
    2. https://www.getrichslowly.org/nine-lessons-in-wealth-building-from-the-millionaire-next-door/