Tag Archives: Investing

Short Interest and Short Selling

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Short interest provides investors a sense of the degree to which investors are betting on the decline of company’s stock price.

It’s easy for investors to understand that you can make money after buying shares of a stock when the stock price increases (going long).

Traders can also profit from a declining market by using a strategy called shorting stock.

Short selling is when a trader sells shares of a company they do not own, with the hope that the price will fall. Traders make money from short selling if the price of the stock falls and they lose if it rises.

Shorting a stock first involves borrowing the stock you wish to sell at a market-determined interest rate and then selling the borrowed equities to take advantage of a future market decline.

You profit by selling the borrowed stock at a higher price and subsequently buying it back at a lower price if the stock price falls.

The profit consists of the difference between the price at which the trader sold the stock and the price they buy it back at less any borrowing and transaction costs.

To successfully short sell, you need to identify stocks that are likely to decrease in value. Look for companies with weak financials, negative news, or a downtrend in their stock price.

When short selling, market timing is crucial. You want to enter the trade when the stock price is likely to decrease, and exit before it rebounds. Pay attention to technical indicators and price action to make informed decisions.

Why Short Interest Matters

Short interest is the number of shares that have been sold short but have not yet been covered or closed out.

Short interest is important to track because it can act as an indicator of market sentiment towards a particular stock. An increase in short interest can signal that investors have become more bearish, while a decrease in short interest can signal they have become more bullish.

Source:

  1.  https://www.benzinga.com/insights/short-sellers/24/03/38010258/pypl-analyzing-paypal-holdingss-short-interest
  2. https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-short-a-stock

Investing and Building Wealth

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“Leaving the question of price aside, the best business to own is one that over an extended period can employ large amounts of incremental capital at very high rates of return.” – Warren Buffett, 1992 Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letter.

Investing is putting money into different securities or investment vehicles, hoping these securities will increase in price and payout profits.

In particular, investing in the stock market involves buying shares of companies that then rise in price. Some companies also pay dividends on their shares at regular intervals.

The end goal of investing is to spread your wealth in different vehicles that grow your money over time.

“Don’t be afraid to overpay for a stock with a history of rewarding shareholders. Winning stocks tend to keep winning if you have a long-term outlook.”  Charlie Munger convinced Warren Buffett that sometimes it’s worth paying a premium for a great business.

A company’s intrinsic value is the present value of all of its future free cash flows (meaning from now until the end of time- all the free cash flows that it will ever generate).

Free cash flow (FCF) is the amount of cash the firm generates from its operations minus the amount of money it reinvested into its operations. Cash flows are “free” because they can be used to pay off debt, buy back shares, pay dividends, or leave in the firm’s bank account.

If you own a private company, this is what you would think of as “real earnings” that you can pay yourself with, given that you don’t have to reinvest those funds into the operation.

”Good things happen to cheap stocks of out-of-favor, industry-leading companies.” ~ Nancy Tengler

The most crucial quantitative evidence of an economic moat is a high return on invested capital (ROIC).

Return on invested capital, or ROIC, is a financial metric that helps understand how efficiently a company generates profits. The less capital it requires to produce earnings, the better.

For example, what does an ROIC of nearly 920% mean? It basically says that a company like Apple can generate massive profits with little investment.

The formula for ROIC is highlighted below. To reinforce, the larger the numerator (NOPAT is the after-tax operating profit) relative to the denominator (which can be defined as fixed assets plus net working capital), the more efficient the company is.

ROIC = NOPAT/Average Invested Capital

ROIC = NOPAT/Average Invested Capital

Investors— both shareholders and creditors— require a certain level of return in exchange for providing a company with the funds it needs to run its business. This is called the weighted average of capital (WACC). A company generates excess returns if its ROIC consistently exceeds its WACC.

For example, imagine little Joey wants to open a lemonade stand. He needs $100 upfront to buy a table, a pitcher, lemons, sugar, ice, and cups. This is invested capital. Joey borrows $50 from Mom and promises to pay her 5% interest ($2.50). Dad has a higher risk tolerance, so he buys $50 of common stock in Joey’s lemonade stand. Dad equity return (this is called the cost of equity).

Buffett created a concept called owner earnings. It is a measure of the firm’s potential free cash flows if it weren’t reinvesting them:

Owner Earnings = Earnings + Depreciation & Amortization + Other Non-Cash Charges – Maintenance Capital Expenditures

Attaining prosperity and financial freedom and building wealth through investing in the stock market for the long term is fundamental.

References:

  1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2022/01/19/financial-freedom-in-2022-investing-in-stock-market-ideas
  2. http://www.comusinvestment.com/blog/growth-returns-on-capital-and-business-valuation
  3. https://einvestingforbeginners.com/buffetts-return-on-invested-capital-formula-daah/

Berkshire-Hathaway vs. S&P 500

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“An investment of $10,000 in Berkshire Hathaway stock in 1965 would have grown to approximately $355 million by 2022.” ~ Nasdaq

In 2022, Berkshire Hathaway outperformed the market, gaining 4% versus the S&P 500’s 19% drop.

Since Buffett took over in 1965, Berkshire Hathaway has beaten the market 39 out of 58 years. It has underperformed the market the other 19 years.

Since 1964, Berkshire Hathaway stock returns has outperformed the S&P 500 by a significant margin.

According to a report by Nasdaq, an investment of $10,000 in Berkshire Hathaway stock in 1965 would have grown to approximately $355 million by 2022, a compounded annual gain of 19.8%.

In contrast, an investment of $10,000 in the S&P 500 over the same period would have grown to approximately $2.3 million, a compounded annual gain of 9.9%.

Since that time, Berkshire Hathaway stock has gained more than 153 times the S&P 500’s gains over the same time period — good enough to give you roughly $355 million based on a $10,000 investment. That translates to a compounded annual gain of 19.8%, or nearly double the S&P 500’s 9.9% compound annual gain.

It’s worth noting that the above figures are based on past performance and do not guarantee future results.

Additionally, investing in individual stocks can be risky and requires careful consideration of one’s financial goals and risk tolerance.

Warren Buffett, Berkshire-Hathaway’s Chairman and CEO, is an advocate of buying stock in businesses that will last.

References:

  1. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/you-wont-believe-how-much-more-warren-buffett-has-made-than-the-market-since-1965

Google’s “Owner’s Manual for Shareholders.”

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“Our goal is to develop services that significantly improve the lives of as many people as possible. In pursuing this goal, we may do things that we believe have a positive impact on the world, even if the near term financial returns are not obvious.” ~ Google founders  Sergey Brin and Larry Page

The founders, Sergey Brin, 31, and Larry Page, 32, launched Google in September 1998 in a friend’s garage in Menlo Park, Calif., naming the company after the mathematical term “googol,” which stands for a 1 followed by 100 zeros. They met in 1995 when they were doctoral students in computer science at Stanford. Both were enthralled with information retrieval and artificial intelligence. The two collaborated in 1996 on a search engine called BackRub, Google’s precursor, which gained notoriety on campus for its ability to analyze the “back links” pointing to a given Web site.

In 2004, Google generated 95 percent of its revenue from advertising. Advertisers buy keywords that launch tiny text ads alongside search results each time someone types those words into Google’s search box and clicks “Google Search.” Advertisers pay the amount they bid for the terms, but only if someone clicks their ads.

In 2004, Google founders  Sergey Brin and Larry Page issued a letter to investors called an “Owner’s Manual for Shareholders.” The seven-page letter was an organizational manifesto crafted by the co-founders to map out Google’s credo as a public company.The letter outlines the company’s goals, warning investors that as a public company, Google will not follow the usual path.

The letter outlines everything from the triumvirate leadership between the co-founders and CEO Eric Schmidt to its promise not to be “evil” by sacrificing its ideals for short-term financial gains. It promises more spending on employee perks such as free meals, a separate voting structure for executives, and avoidance of making financial predictions for Wall Street. Instead, the company will focus on long-term priorities that do not have an immediate effect on earnings.

“If opportunities arise that might cause us to sacrifice short-term results but are in the best long-term interest of our shareholders, we will take those opportunities,” the letter read. “We will have the fortitude to do this. We would request that our shareholders take the long-term view.”

The pair have created a corporate environment that fosters individual creative pursuits while pampering employees with free meals and regular beer bashes.

Here are several Google’s promises and processes as outlined in the owner’s manual:

Managing Wall Street: “Many companies are under pressure to keep their earnings in line with analysts’ forecasts. Therefore, they often accept smaller, but predictable, earnings rather than larger and more unpredictable returns. Sergey and I feel this is harmful, and we intend to steer in the opposite direction.”

Risk vs. reward: “As the ratio of reward to risk increases, we will accept projects further outside our normal areas, especially when the initial investment is small. We encourage our employees, in addition to their regular projects, to spend 20 percent of their time working on what they think will most benefit Google. Most risky projects fizzle, often teaching us something. Others succeed and become attractive businesses.”

Executive decision-making: “To facilitate timely decisions, Eric, Sergey and I meet daily to update each other on the business and to focus our collaborative thinking on the most important and immediate issues. Decisions are often made by one of us, with the others being briefed later. This works because we have tremendous trust and respect for each other and we generally think alike.”

Dual class voting: “While this structure is unusual for technology companies, it is common in the media business and has had a profound importance there. The New York Times Company, the Washington Post Company and Dow Jones, the publisher of The Wall Street Journal, all have similar dual class ownership structures. Media observers frequently point out that dual class ownership has allowed these companies to concentrate on their core, long-term interest in serious news coverage, despite fluctuations in quarterly results.

Googlers: “We provide many unusual benefits for our employees, including meals free of charge, doctors and washing machines. We are careful to consider the long-term advantages to the company of these benefits. Expect us to add benefits rather than pare them down over time.”

Kumbaya: “We aspire to make Google an institution that makes the world a better place. And now, we are in the process of establishing the Google Foundation. We intend to contribute significant resources to the foundation, including employee time and approximately 1 percent of Google’s equity and profits in some form.”

“As a private company, we have concentrated on the long term, and this has served us well. As a public company, we will do the same,” the letter states.

“In our opinion, outside pressures too often tempt companies to sacrifice long-term opportunities to meet quarterly market expectations. Sometimes, this pressure has caused companies to manipulate financial results in order to ‘make their quarter.’ In Warren Buffett’s words, ‘We won’t smooth quarterly or annual results: If earnings figures are lumpy when they reach headquarters, they will be lumpy when they reach you.'”

References:

  1. https://abc.xyz/investor/founders-letters/ipo-letter/
  2. https://www.cnet.com/tech/tech-industry/google-files-for-unusual-2-7-billion-ipo/
  3. https://www.cnet.com/tech/tech-industry/co-founders-release-google-owners-manual/
  4. https://blog.google/

Microsoft’s Stock Market Value Higher Than Apple’s

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Microsoft’s stock market value closed higher than Apple’s for the first time since 2021, making it the world’s most valuable company based on market capitalization.

While both technology companies were part of the so-called Magnificent 7’s powerful rally in 2023, their fortunes have diverged year. Microsoft has risen 3.3%, while Apple has dropped 3.4%.

Microsoft has incorporated OpenAI’s technology across its suite of productivity software, a move that helped spark a rebound in its cloud-computing business.

Apple, meanwhile, has been grappling with tepid demand, including for the iPhone, its cash cow. Demand in China, a major market, has slumped as the country’s economy makes a slow recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and a resurgent Huawei erodes its market share.

Both tech stocks look relatively expensive in terms of price to their expected earnings, a common method of valuing publicly listed companies.

Apple is trading at a forward PE of 28, well above its average of 19 over the past 10 years. Microsoft is trading around 32 times forward earnings, above its 10-year average of 24.

Source: Noel Randewich,  Microsoft edges out Apple as world’s most valuable company, Reuters, January 12, 2024. https://www.yahoo.com/tech/microsoft-edges-apple-worlds-most-232740340.html

U.S. Investors Avoid Investing in China

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China’s economy is in trouble.

China’s President Xi, speaking with forked tongue to the gullible, attempts to both revive an economy struggling to arrest a slide in the property sector by wooing Western capital, while also attempting to strengthen national security as military and trade tensions rise with the US. Even Chinese leader Xi Jinping has acknowledged the many challenges the country’s economy faced in calendar year 2023.

Western ompanies and investors have been caught in the middle, with executives hearing warm words from top Chinese officials only to then see authorities crackdown on consultancy firms, expand a vague anti-spy law and restrict access to data.

The Chinese economy has experienced higher unemployment, a downturn in manufacturing, reduce domestic GDP growth, political unrest, and a crashing real estate market, stated Gary Locke, former U.S. Ambassador to China. There exist lack of investor confidence and uncertainty in Chinese economy.

The country’s shift toward “a more totalitarian environment” has resulted in growing anxiety about being in China among foreign investors, according to Zak Dychtwald, founder of Shanghai-based trend research company Young China Group.

Western business people contemplating trips to China mist be crconcerned and exercise caution about the risks of unwarranted detention and becoming a political hostage similar to what has happened to U.S. citizens traveling to Russia, Venezuela, Iran and North Korea.

Reference:

  1. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/xi-s-mixed-messages-leave-whiplashed-investors-wary-of-china/ar-AA1moQjP

Coffee Can Investing Strategy (Finding 100 Bagger)

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“I try to invest in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will.”  ― Warren Buffett

Coffee Can Investment Strategy involves buying and holding a portfolio of high-quality companies for the long-term, typically ten years or more. The strategy is based on the premise that investing in the right high-quality companies will result in significant capital appreciation over time.

The concept was popularized in India by Saurabh Mukherjea in his book “ Coffee Can Investing:  The Low-Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.

In this strategy, investors pick a group of high-quality companies with a proven track record of generating consistent profits, revenue growth and return on invested capital (ROIC). The chosen equity stocks are held for an extended period irrespective of market conditions or short term volatility.

This strategy allows investors to avoid the temptation of selling their equity holdings during short-term market volatility. It protect the investor from their own bad decision and investing behavior.

You only need one of the Coffee Can companies to hit and become a 100 bagger.

But, how to look at a small cap company and know that they have a runway.

Look at the ownership and use your imagination to determine if a company can have organic growth and expand into other markets.

At the end of 10 years, you will have some stocks that have not grown, others that have lost value, and two to four outperformers. Those outperformers will provide a high return on investment.

It refers to companies that have generated a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of over 15% every year with the Coffee Can Investing approach. This makes the approach a low-risk route to making stupendous wealth.

Coffee Can Portfolio is mostly concerned with stock quality. As an investor, you must choose a quality stock, which signifies a fundamentally strong company. Here are some points to build a Coffee Can Portfolio.

  1. The company should have been in existence for at least 10 years.
  2. The revenue growth should be at least 10% year per year.
  3. ROIC of at least 15% for 10 years
  4. Market capitalization should be more than $500 million USD
  5. The company should have good brand value.
  6. The company should have a competitive edge.
  7. Founder or CEO has skin in the game focused on driving value in the business. Executive management is strong. 

For instance, let’s take an example of a toothpaste company. If a toothpaste company’s prices are increased, will people stop brushing? The answer is “NO.” Similarly, this strategy neither works on quantity nor growth; it works on quality investing.

References:

  1. https://groww.in/blog/the-coffee-can-portfolio

Buffet’s Owner’s Earnings

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Owner earnings (OE) is a valuation method detailed by Warren Buffett in Berkshire Hathaway’s annual report in 1986. He stated that the value of a company is simply the total of the net cash flows (owner earnings) expected to occur over the life of the business, minus any reinvestment of earnings.

Owners’ earnings, also known as cash flow for owners, remains one of the more accurate measures of how much money we can make from an investment and helps calculate intrinsic value.

The formula for owners’ earnings is as follows:

OE = Net income + Non-cash charges – Maintenance Capex +/- Changes in working capital Where the below:

  • Non-cash = depreciation, amortization, impairment + other charges
  • Maintenance Capex = Cash a company spends to maintain normal biz operations.
  • Changes in working capital = adding the items under “Change in operating assets and liabilities” from the CF statement.

We will use a combination of cash flow statements to find the numbers.

To simplify some of this maintenance, the capex is an imprecise number that Buffett didn’t define precisely.

Many suggest different calculation methods; we will use the CF number to simplify.

Using $MSFT as our guinea pig for the year ending 2022. Below are the numbers taken from the financials:

  • Net income = $72,738
  • Non-cash = $16,260
  • Capex = ($23,866)
  • Changes in working capital = $446

Plugging in the numbers for $MSFT, we get:

Owners Earnings = $72,738+$16,260-$23,866+$446 = $65,578

Per share = $65,578 / 7,496 = 8.74

When compared to current P/FCF equals 8.70

Use these criteria to eliminate 95% of stocks:

Revenue growth 12%
Shares outstanding <2%
Net debt to FCF below 5x
Free cash flow growth +15%
Return on Invested capital +15%
Earnings per share growth +15%

12 companies that qualify:

 

Value vs Growth Stocks

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Value investors want to buy stocks for less than they’re worth. If you could buy $100 bills for $80, wouldn’t you do so? ~ Motley Fool

Most public equity stocks are classified as either value stocks or growth stocks. Generally speaking:

  • A value stock trades for a cheaper price than its financial performance and fundamentals suggest it’s worth.
  • A growth stock is a stock in a company expected to deliver above-average returns compared to its industry peers or the overall stock market.

Value stocks generally have the following characteristics:

  • They typically are mature businesses.
  • They have steady (but not spectacular) growth rates.
  • They report relatively stable revenues and earnings.
  • Most value stocks pay dividends, although this isn’t a set-in-stone rule.

Growth stocks generally have the following characteristics:

  • They increase their revenue and earnings at a faster rate than the average business in their industry or the market as a whole.
  • They developed an innovative product or service that is gaining share in existing markets, entering new markets, or even creating entirely new industries.
  • They grow faster than average for long periods tend to be rewarded by the market, delivering handsome returns to shareholders in the process.

Regardless of the category of a stock, economic downturns present an opportunity for a value investor. The goal of value investing is to scoop up shares at a discount, and the best time to do so is when the entire stock market is on sale.

References:

  1. https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/types-of-stocks/value-stocks/
  2. https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/types-of-stocks/growth-stocks/

Berkshire-Hathaway Stock

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  • Berkshire Hathaway has beaten the S&P 500 going back 20 years.
  • The company is built to endure the most challenging market environments.

The “Oracle of Omaha” Warren Buffett is a legendary billionaire investor and one of the world’s wealthiest people. While his start at a very early age helped him build a fortune, Buffett hasn’t lost his investing touch.

Since becoming CEO in 1965, the Oracle of Omaha has overseen a greater than 4,400,000% return in his company’s Class A shares (BRK.A). This works out to a nearly 20% annualized return over 58 years.

Additionally, Berkshire Hathaway has outperformed the S&P 500 index over the past 20 years. Had you invested $10,000 in Berkshire Hathaway in 2003, you would have more than $71,000 today to the S&P 500’s $62,200.

Buffett, and his investing lieutenants, Ted Weschler and Todd Combs, are huge fans of businesses that regularly buy back their stock and increase Berkshire Hathaway’s ownership stake without him or his investment team having to lift a finger.

Stock buybacks can have a positive fundamental impact on a company. For a company with steady or growing net income, buybacks have the ability to increase earnings per share over time. This should help a company’s stock look even more attractive to fundamentally focused value seekers.

References:

  1. https://www.fool.com/premium/coverage/investing/2023/09/27/if-you-invested-10000-in-berkshire-hathaway-in-200/
  2. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/warren-buffett-is-selling-shares-of-this-high-yield-dividend-stock-and-likely-buying-shares-of-his-favorite-stock-no-not-apple/ar-AA1hkkk9