Tag Archives: Investing

Warren Buffett’s Three Investing Principles

Posted on by

If you want to invest on your own, billionaire investor Warren Buffett recommends three investing principles that have guided him over the decades.

The principles are derived from a book first published in 1949: “The Intelligent Investor”, written by Buffett’s mentor, Benjamin Graham:

Principle 1: Don’t look at a stock like it is a ticker symbol with a price that goes up and down on a chart. It’s a slice of a company’s profits far into the future, and that’s how they need to be evaluated.

Buffett has four things he wants to see, whether he’s buying the entire company for Berkshire, or just a slice of it as a stock:

  1. “One that we can understand …” When Buffett talks about “understanding” a company, he means he understands how that company will be able to make money far into the future. He’s often said he didn’t buy shares of what turned out to be very successful tech companies like Google and Microsoft because he didn’t understand them.
  2. “With favorable long-term prospects …” Buffett often refers to a company’s sustainable competitive advantage, something he calls a “moat.” A “moat” consists of things a company does to keep and gain loyal customers, such as low prices, quality products, proprietary technology, and, often, a well- known brand built through years of advertising, such as Coca-Cola. An established company in an industry that has large start-up costs that deter would be competitors can also have a moat.
  3. “Operated by honest and competent people …”. “Generally, we like people who are candid. We can usually tell when somebody’s dancing around something, or where their — when the reports are essentially a little dishonest, or biased, or something. And it’s just a lot easier to operate with people that are candid. “And we like people who are smart, you know. I don’t mean geniuses… And we like people who are focused on the business.” — 1995 BERKSHIRE ANNUAL MEETING. The quality of the business itself, however, takes precedence.
  4. “Available at a very attractive price.”Buffett’s goal is to buy when the price is below a company’s “intrinsic value.”“The intrinsic value of any business, if you could foresee the future perfectly, is the present value of all cash that will be ever distributed for that business between now and judgment day.“And we’re not perfect at estimating that, obviously”, Buffett stated. “But that’s what an investment or a business is all about. You put money in, and you take money out.”

Principle 2: The stock market is there to serve you, not instruct you.

Many non-professional investors become concerned when stock prices fall. They think the market is telling them they made a mistake. Some may even be so shaken that they sell stocks at the lower prices.

Buffett takes the opposite view. If he buys a stock because he thinks the company will be a long-term winner, he doesn’t let the market convince him otherwise.

Principle 3: Maintain a margin of safety

“We try not to do anything difficult …

“This is not like Olympic diving. In Olympic diving, they have a degree of difficulty factor. And if you can do some very difficult dive, the payoff is greater if you do it well than if you do some very simple dive.

“That’s not true in investments. You get paid just as well for the most simple dive, as long as you execute it all right. And there’s no reason to try those three-and-a-halfs when you get paid just as well for just diving off the side of the pool and going in cleanly.

“So, we look for one-foot bars to step over rather than seven-foot or eight-foot bars to try and set some Olympic record by jumping over. And it’s very nice, because you get paid just as well for the one-foot bars.” — 1998 BERKSHIRE ANNUAL MEETING

Low cost index funds

Buffett has long recommended that investors put their money in low-cost index funds, which hold every stock in an index, making them automatically diversified. The S&P 500, for example, includes big-name companies like Apple, Coca-Cola and Amazon.

Buffett said that for people looking to build wealth and their retirement savings, diversified index funds make “the most sense practically all of the time.”

“Consistently buy an S&P 500 low-cost index fund,” Buffett said in 2017. “Keep buying it through thick and thin, and especially through thin.”

References:

  1. https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2022/03/22/bwp22links.pdf
  2. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/02/warren-buffett-says-investing-is-a-simple-game.html

Start Early to Build Wealth

Posted on by

The single most important thing you can do to build wealth is to start early. Getting started is more important than becoming a financial expert and the easiest way to manage your money is to take one small step at a time.

You, like most people, do not need a financial adviser to help you build wealth. Instead, you need to set up accounts at financial institutions, such as Fideltiy or Vanguard, automate the day-to-day money management (including bills, savings, investing and paying off debt). And, you need to know a few things to invest in, and then be patient and wait thirty years for your money to grow.

But, that’s not cool or exciting. Instead of listening to the noise of the financial entertainment media, instead you want your money to go where you want it to go in accordance with your goals and values. You want your money to grow automatically, in accounts that don’t nickel-and-dime you with excessive expenses and fees.

It’s essential to start today to learn about building wealth and take small steps to save, invest and manage your money. You don’t have to be a genius or financial expert to build wealth. Successful wealth building takes time, discipline and patience.

What do I want to do with my life–and how can I use my wealth to do it!

Investing early is the best thing you can do; ‘doing nothing’ ranks right up there with trying to drive a car without tires; it’s a bad idea and it won’t get you anywhere.

The single most important thing you can do to build wealth is to start early.

Here’s a great example of why investing early matters, that puts it in numbers:

  • If you invest $5,000 every year (which is $417/month) for 10 years, from age 25 to age 35 and then never invest again, you’d still have more money at retirement, than someone who starts at age 35 and invests $5,000 every year until they retire.
  • The 25 year old starter invests $55,000 and ends up with $615,000 (given an 8% annual return, which is close to the average return of the stock market per year). The 35 year old invests $130,000 and ends up with $431,000.

So, remember the adage “The best time to start building wealth is twenty years ago. The second best time is today.” You can save and invest modest amounts, like $20 a monty, and over time realize thousands of dollars in gains.

There are a lot of societal problems, but it’s important to focus on what you can control. Don’t be a passenger in life. It’s a lot more fun to be a captain of your own ship, even if you go off course a few dozen times. Building wealth does require some work. But, the benefits and rewards will surpass the effort.

Take a long term view. The economy grows and contracts in cycles ( business cycle). Fear is no excuse to do nothing with your money. You cam automate your saving and investing, thus you can continue to save and invest whiles others respond to emotions of fear.

Investing for average stock market returns (8% to 9%) is great since most retail and so call smart money fail to beat the average returns of the stock market. Moreover, theses investors tend to do the things that guarantee their failure: trade frequently, make outlandish investments, incur high taxes and pay unnecessary fees. The single most important factor to building wealth is getting started.

The challenges and opportunities with building wealth, and the corresponding solution, are you. Your mindset, behaviors and actions are the number one problem.

  1. You’re the only one responsible for your financial problems.
  2. Know how much money you have coming in and then automatically direct it where you want it to end up.
  3. It’s essential to start early and to start investing today, even if it’s just $1.

References:

  1. https://fourminutebooks.com/i-will-teach-you-to-be-rich-summary/

Buying Stocks On the Dip

Posted on by

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful.” ~Warren Buffett

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett added shares of companies during the market downturn. He has been acquiring stocks on the dip during the recent quarter’s market downturn and bulking up his stakes in oil companies such as Occidental Petroleum (OXY)

Buying a ‘Wonderful Company at a Fair Price’

The most important concept to appreciate when buying stocks is that price is what you pay for a stock, and value is what you get. Paying too high a price can decimate returns and increase your investing risk. 

To delve deeper, the value of a stock is relative to the number of earnings or cash flow the company will generate over its lifetime. In particular, this value is determined by discounting all future cash flows back to a present value, or intrinsic value.

Buffett has said that “it is much better to buy a wonderful business at a good price than a good business at a wonderful price”.

Buffett’s investing style has been buying stocks on sale priced below its intrinsic value. He has never been one that favors acquiring commodities, but higher inflation rates could have played a role, Thomas Hayes, chairman of Great Hill Capital in New York, commented.

“As for Buffett buying shares in OXY, I wouldn’t make too much on it,” Hayes said. “Historically, he has avoided investing in commodity stocks. Today he sees it as a hedge against inflation and a potential supply/demand imbalance.”

Inflation is the biggest strain on the economy. While the pace of inflation eased slightly during the month of April, investor sentiment towards the Fed’s pace of tightening remains mixed.

The fact that he is deploying his war chest of cash is a strong indication that he and his lieutenants believe that there are undervalued stocks out there,” he said. “This doesn’t mean he believes that the market is undervalued or will rebound in the near future, but that some companies are compelling buys. This is a good signal for value investors.”

Buffett’s energy investments demonstrate the 91-year old’s investing strategy of acquiring shares in companies that have low valuations and shareholder returns in the form of dividends and buybacks, Art Hogan, chief market strategist B Riley Financial, told TheStreet.

References:

  1. https://www.thestreet.com/investing/buffett-buying-stocks-on-the-dip

10 Powerful Quotes ~ “The Psychology of Money”

Posted on by

“Rich is the current income. Wealth is income not spent. Wealth is hard because it requires self-control.” Morgan Housel

10 Powerful Quotes from “The Psychology of Money” by “Morgan Housel”

  1. “Spending money to show people how much money you have is the fastest way to have less money.”
  2. “Getting money is one thing. Keeping it is another.”
  3. “Be nicer and less flashy. No one is impressed with your possessions as much as you are.”
  4. “You might think you want a fancy car or a nice watch. But what you probably want is respect and admiration.”
  5. “Use money to gain control over your time.”
  6. “Saving is the gap between your ego and your income.”
  7. “Savings can be created by spending less. You can spend less if you desire less. And you will desire less if you care less about what others think of you. Money relies more on psychology than finance.”
  8. “Rich is the current income. Wealth is income not spent. Wealth is hard because it requires self-control.”
  9. “Happiness is just results minus expectations.”
  10. “In fact, the most important part of every plan is planning on your plan not going according to plan.”

https://twitter.com/books_dq/status/1517815934056075264

A few bonus quotes:

“”Be more patient” in investing is the “sleep 8 hours” of health. It sounds too simple to take seriously but will probably make a bigger difference than anything else you do.”

“The formula for how to do well with money is simple. The behaviors you battle while implementing that formula are hard.”

“”Save more money and be more patient” is too simple for most people to take seriously, but it’s the best solution to most financial problems.”

References:

  1. https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/rules-truths-beliefs/
  2. https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/$/

12 Timeless Rules of Investing

Posted on by

Guidelines Every Investor Should Embrace, But Few Actually Do

An Investment U White Paper Report written by Dr. Steve Sjuggerud, Advisory Panelist, Investment U

In the the white paper report, Dr. Sjuggerud identified 12 classic investing rules that every investor can use throughout their lifetimes.

These guidelines are provided to help investors achieve their goals, sometimes in capitalizing on gains and sometimes in mitigating losses.

1. An attempt at making a quick buck often leads to losing much of that buck.

  • The people who suffer the worst losses are those who overreach.
  • If the investment sounds too good to be true, it is.
  • The best hot tip is “there is no such thing as a hot tip.”

2. Don’t let a small loss become large.

  • Don’t keep losing money just to “prove you are right.”
  • Never throw good money after bad (don’t buy more of a loser).
  • When all you’re left with is hope, get out.

3. Cut your losers; let your winners ride.

  • Avoid limited-upside, unlimited-downside investments.
  • Don’t fall in love with your investment; it won’t fall in love with you.

4. A rising tide raises all ships, and vice versa. So assess the tide, not the ships.

  • Fighting the prevailing “trend” is generally a recipe for disaster.
  • Stocks will fall more than you think and rise higher than you can imagine.
  • In the short run, values don’t matter. In the long run, valuations do matter.

5. When a stock hits a new high, it’s not time to sell something that is going right.

  • When a stock hits a new low, it’s not time to buy something that is going wrong.

6. Buy and hold doesn’t ALWAYS work.

  • If stocks don’t seem cheap, stand aside.

7. Bear markets begin in good times. Bull markets begin in bad times.

8. If you don’t understand the investment, don’t buy it.

  • Don’t be wooed. Either make an effort to understand it or say “no thanks.”
  • You can’t know everything, so don’t stray far from what you know.

9. Buy value, and sell hysteria.

  • Paying less than the underlying asset’s value is a proven successful investing strategy.
  • Buying overvalued stocks has proven to under perform the market.
  • Neglected sectors often offer good values.
  • The “popular” sectors are often overvalued.

10. Investing in what’s popular never ends up making you any money.

  • Avoid popular stocks, fad industries and new ventures.
  • Buy an investment when it has few friends.

11. When it’s time to act, don’t hesitate.

  • Once you’re in, be patient and don’t be rattled by fluctuations.
  • Stick with your plan… but when you make a mistake, don’t hesitate.
  • Learn more from your bad moves than your good ones.

12. Expert investors care about risk; novice investors shop for returns.

  • If you focus on the risks, the returns will eventually come for you.
  • If you focus on the returns, the risks will eventually come for you.

Good investing.

References:

  1. https://investmentu.com/timelessrules/

Long-Term Investing

Posted on by

“Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.” — Paul Samuelson

Everyone is a long-term investor up to the moment the stock market correction or crash occurs. “During bull markets, everyone believes that he is committed to stocks for the long term,” opines Billionaire investor William J. Bernstein. “Unfortunately, history also tells us that during bear markets, you can hardly give stocks away. Most investors are simply not capable of withstanding the vicissitudes of an all-stock investment strategy.

Yet, successful investing is a long game. It takes “time, patience and discipline”, says Warren Buffett. When you put money to work in markets it’s best to set it and forget it. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett quipped, “Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a fly epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.”

Myopic Loss Aversion

Investors must manage the battle between fear and greed in their heads and stomachs to be successful in building wealth in the long term. Unfortunately, the fear of loss is generally a more powerful force that overwhelms many investors during periods of steep losses in stock prices.

Even though they don’t plan to liquidate the investment for decades, many investors panic during market corrections and bear markets; causing them to miss out on the often sharp recovery in prices that follows.

Being a long-term investor is more about inner attitude, about positive mindset and about behavior then the asset holding timeframe. Being a long-term investor requires a confidence based on clarity of purpose, rigorous research, and insightful analysis.

Long-term investors should invest in sustainable and growing companies – companies that are likely to be around and that are increasing their intrinsic value for the long term.

Behavior is an essential value of a long-term investor since behavior drives results. Thus, staying calm during a downturn is indeed a critical quality of any long-term investor,

For long-term investors, if you are clear about your investment principles, confident in your investment’s thesis, and genuinely believe in your investment strategy, a market downturn is the best time to invest in companies.

Overall, investing is all about focusing on your financial goals and ignoring the noise and mania of the markets and the financial media. That means buying and holding for the long term, regardless of any news that might move you to try and time the market. “There is only one way of investing, and that is long term,” says Vid Ponnapalli, a CFP and owner of Unique Financial Advisors and Tax Consultants in Holmdel, N.J.

Investor, Mohnish Pabrai, says it best, “You don’t make money when you buy stocks, and you don’t make money when you sell stocks. You make money by waiting.”

“Successful Investing takes time, discipline and patience. No matter how great the talent or effort, some things just take time: You can’t produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant.” Warren Buffett

References:

  1. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/tips-for-long-term-investing/
  2. https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b18x07sykt3psy/What-Long-Term-Investor-Really-Means
  3. https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-shook/2022/05/10/an-investors-mind-6-ways-it-can-block-the-path-to-long-term-wealth/?sh=7ca749405f7c

Magic Formula

Posted on by

“Believe it can be done. When you believe something can be done, really believe, your mind will find the ways to do it. Believing a solution paves the way to solution.” – David J. Schwartz

In “The Little Book That Beats the Market”, Joel Greenblatt, Founder and Managing Partner at Gotham Capital (average annualized returns of 40% for over 20 years), sets out the basic principles for successful stock market investing.

In his book, Greenblatt provides a “magic formula” that makes buying good companies at bargain prices process driven. It takes a bunch of stocks (Russell 3000) and ranks them on quality; takes the same bunch and ranks them on value. Add the two ranks and buy the stocks with the highest summed ranks. Hold them for a year or preferably longer.

The formula is based on two very solid pillars of value investing: Invest in companies with high returns, and make sure they’re selling at a large discount (margin of safety).

For his quality factor, Greenblatt chose return on capital, defined as EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) divided by the sum of working capital and fixed assets. For his value factor, Greenblatt chose EBIT divided by enterprise value.

“If you just stick to buying good companies (ones that have a high return on capital) and to buying those companies only at bargain prices (at prices that give you a high earnings yield), you can end up systematically buying many of the good companies that crazy Mr. Market has decided to literally give away.”

“Choosing individual stocks without any idea of what you’re looking for is like running through a dynamite factory with a burning match. You may live, but you’re still an idiot.”

“In short, companies that achieve a high return on capital are likely to have a special advantage of some kind. That special advantage keeps competitors from destroying the ability to earn above-average profits.”

“Stock prices move around wildly over very short periods of time. This does not mean that the values of the underlying companies have changed very much during that same period. In effect, the stock market acts very much like a crazy guy named Mr. Market.”

“Although over the short term, Mr. Market may set stock prices based on emotion, over the long term, it is the value of the company that becomes most important to Mr. Market.”

“After more than 25 years of investing professionally and after 9 years of teaching at an Ivy League business school, I am convinced of at least two things: 1. If you really want to “beat the market,” most professionals and academics can’t help you, and 2. That leaves only one real alternative: You must do it yourself.”
― Joel Greenblatt, The Little Book That Beats the Market

“Over the short term, Mr. Market acts like a wildly emotional guy who can buy or sell stocks at depressed or inflated prices. Over the long run, it’s a completely different story: Mr. Market gets it right.”

“Although over the short term Mr. Market may price stocks based on emotion, over the long term Mr. Market prices stocks based on their value.”

Greenblatt’s three basic principles:

  1. Buy good companies;
  2. Buy them at bargain prices;
  3. Use ranking to pick stocks.

Financial commentator Gary Shilling likes to say, “The stock market can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent.”

T,hus, when looking for bargain prices, you need to look at a lot more things than earnings yield, and when looking for good businesses, you need to look at a lot more things than high return on capital.

You can’t judge a business as good or bad without looking at its stability, its growth prospects, and the quality of its earnings; and you can’t judge a business as a bargain without looking at a variety of valuation metrics.

References:

  1. https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/73414-the-little-book-that-beats-the-market
  2. https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/03/23/foolish-book-review-the-little-book-that-beats-the.aspx
  3. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4374333-how-market-beat-little-book-beats-market-stock-pickers-guide-to-joel-greenblatts-magic

Differences Between Price and Value

Posted on by

“Price is what you pay; value is what you get.” Warren Buffett

“Don’t judge a company’s stock by its share price.” Many people incorrectly assume that a stock with a low dollar price is cheap, while another one with a four-digit dollar price is expensive. In fact, a stock’s price says little about that stock’s value. Moreover, it says nothing at all about whether that the market price of a company is headed higher or lower.

The most important distinction between the ‘market price you pay’ and the ‘intrinsic value you get’ is the fact that price is arbitrary and value is fundamental.

  • Price is the amount paid for the product or service.
  • Cost is the aggregate monetary value of the inputs used in the production of the goods or services.
  • Value of a product or service is the utility or worth of the product or service for an individual.

To effectively deploy this strategy, it’s essential to find a company that you understand, that has solid fundamentals — then be patient and wait until the company’s stock price falls below its intrinsic value before you purchase the company.

Regarding ‘understanding’ a company, it’s important for investors to know how a company makes its money–revenue, profits and free cash flow.

At some point, a stock’s market price over the long term adjusts to its intrinsic value. This fact is how successful investors such as Warren Buffet have used to make billions over the long term.

“Finding differences between price and value is by far the most effective investment strategy”, writes Phil Townes, founder of Rule One Investing . “Not recognizing differences between price and value is also what causes many investors to lose their shirts, as companies are just as often overpriced as they are underpriced.”

How do you find companies that are on sale for less than their true value is to evaluate companies using a set of standards that look beyond the company’s current price tag. Phil Town call these standards the four Ms:

  • Meaning,
  • Moat,
  • Management and
  • Margin of Safety

The first step is to make sure you understand the company and the company you invest in has meaning to you as an investor. If it does, you’ll understand it better, be more likely to research it and be more passionate about investing in it.

The second step is to choose a company that has a moat. This means that there is something inherent about the company that makes it difficult for competitors to step in and carve away part of their market share.

The third step is to look at the company’s management. Companies live and die by the people managing them, and if you are going to invest in a company, you need to make sure their management is talented and trustworthy.

Finally, calculate the company’s intrinsic value and determine a margin of safety. Margin of safety is the price at which you can buy shares of a company, being more likely that you won’t lose money and have increased confident that you will make a good return on your invested capital.

When the market price of a company is lower than the company’s intrinsic value number, the company is deemed underpriced and represents a great investment opportunity.

“Leveraging differences between price and value is as simple as that”, said Town. “Find a company that you believe in, that has solid fundamentals — then wait until their price falls below their value. If you do this, you can buy companies on sale, sell them for their true value and make a lot of money in the process.”

The goal is to identify stocks that are undervalued—that is, their market prices do not reflect their true intrinsic value.

References:

  1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/2018/01/04/the-important-differences-between-price-and-value/
  2. https://keydifferences.com/difference-between-price-cost-and-value.html
  3. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/08/stock-prices-fool.asp

The overriding goal is to help individuals learn how to successfully invest in assets, to build long term wealth and achieve lifetime financial freedom. 

What is Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

Posted on by

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is a performance ratio that aims to measure the percentage return that a company earns on invested capital.

The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) ratio shows how efficiently a company is using the investors’ funds to generate net income. Investors use the ROIC ratio to compute and to understand the value of a company. It represents for investors how well a company has put its capital to work in order to generate profitable returns on behalf of its shareholders and debt lenders.

Fundamentally, ROIC answers the question:

  • “How much in returns is the company earning for each dollar invested?”

Return on Invested Capital is calculated by taking into account the cost of the investment and the returns generated.

  • Returns are all the earnings acquired after taxes but before interest is paid.
  • The value of an investment is calculated by subtracting all current long-term liabilities, those due within the year, from the company’s assets.

The cost of investment can either be the total amount of assets a company requires to run its business or the amount of financing from creditors or shareholders. The return is then divided by the cost of investment.

Net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) is typically used in the numerator because it captures the recurring core operating profits and is an unlevered measure (i.e. unaffected by the capital structure).

Unlike net income, NOPAT is the operating profits post-taxes and thus represents what is available for all equity and debt providers.

  • Return on Invested Capital (ROIC): The numerator is net operating profit after tax (NOPAT), which measures the earnings of a company prior to financing costs.
  • Invested Capital: As for the denominator, the invested capital represents the sources of funding raised to grow the company and run the day-to-day operations.

Capital refers to debt and equity financing, which are the two common sources of funds for companies that are used to invest in cash flow generative assets and derive economic benefits.

A company can evaluate its growth by looking at its return on invested capital ratio. Any firm earning excess returns on investments totaling more than the cost of acquiring the capital is a value creator. Excess returns may be reinvested, thus securing future growth for the company. An investment whose returns are equal to or less than the cost of capital is a value destroyer. Generally speaking,

  • A company is considered to be a value creator if its ROIC is at least two percent more than the cost of capital;
  • A company is considered to be a value destroyer is if its ROIC is two percent less than its cost of capital.

There are some companies that run at zero returns, whose return percentage on the value of capital lies within the set estimation error, which in this case is 2%.

A higher return on invested capital can be considered an indication that a company is required to spend less to generate more profit.

  • Profitable Returns on Invested Capital (ROIC) → Positive Value Creation and Shareholder Returns

The higher the profit margins of the company, the higher the return on invested capital, as the company can convert more revenue (or NOPAT) into profits.

Companies that generate an ROIC above their cost of capital implies the management team can allocate capital efficiently and invest in profitable projects, which is a competitive advantage in itself.

When investors screen for potential investments, the minimum ROIC tends to be set between 10% and 15%, but this will be firm-specific and depend on the type of strategy employed.

ROIC is one method to determine whether or not a company has a defensible “economic moat”, which is the ability of a company to protect its profit margins and market share from new market entrants over the long run.

Warren Buffett

The overall objective of calculating ROIC is to better understand how efficiently a company has been utilizing its operating capital (i.e. deployment of capital).

Generally, the higher the return on invested capital (ROIC), the more likely the company is to achieve sustainable long-term value creation.

References:

  1. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/what-is-roic/
  2. https://www.wallstreetprep.com/knowledge/roic-return-on-invested-capital/

Bonds Getting Clobbered

Posted on by

“Bondholders are going to be in for some nasty surprises…because the losses are piling up.” CNBC’s Kelly Evans

A bond is a debt security, similar to an IOU. Borrowers issue bonds to raise money from investors willing to lend them money for a certain amount of time.

When you buy a bond, you are lending to the issuer, which may be a government, municipality, or corporation. In return, the issuer promises to pay you a specified rate of interest during the life of the bond and to repay the principal, also known as face value or par value of the bond, when it “matures,” or comes due after a set period of time.

Just as individuals get a mortgage to buy a house, or a car loan to buy a vehicle, or use credit cards, corporations use debt to build factories, buy inventory, and finance acquisitions. Governments use debt to build infrastructure and to pay obligations when tax revenues fluctuate. Loans help to keep the economy running efficiently.

Whenever the size of the loan is too large for a bank to handle, companies and governments go to the bond market to finance their debt. The purpose of the bond market is to enable large amounts of money to be borrowed.

Bonds can provide a means of preserving capital and earning a predictable return for investors. Bond investments provide steady streams of income from interest payments prior to maturity.

The bond market (also known as the debt market or credit market) is a financial market where players can buy and sell bonds in the secondary market or issue fresh debt in the primary market. Like the stock market, the bond secondary market is made up of investors trading with other investors. The original company that received the money and is responsible for paying back the money, is not involved in the day-to-day trading. The market value of bonds can fluctuate daily due to changes in inflation, interest rates, and fickleness of investors.

The United States accounts for around 39% of total bond market value. According to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA), the bond market (total debt outstanding) was worth $119 trillion globally in 2021, and $46 trillion in the United States (SIFMA). The worldwide bond market is almost three times larger than the global stock market.

“I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or as a 400 basball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” James Carville

The bond market is more important to the health of the U.S. and global economies than the stock market. And, you prefer for the bond market is not in the news, to be boring and functioning smoothly. Disruption in the bond market is what can get the economy in trouble.

As with any investment, bonds have risks which include:

  • Interest rate risk. Interest rate changes can affect a bond’s value. If bonds are sold before maturity, the bond may be worth more or less than the face value. Rising interest rates will make newly issued bonds more appealing to investors because the newer bonds will have a higher rate of interest than older ones. To sell an older bond with a lower interest rate, you might have to sell it at a discount.
  • Inflation risk. Inflation is a general upward movement in prices. Inflation reduces purchasing power, which is a risk for investors receiving a fixed rate of interest.

In aggregate, bond values are down significantly over the past three months–one of the worst quarters the securities have experienced since the 1980s, explains CNBC’s Kelly Evans. According to Natalliance, “government bonds are on pace for their worst year since 1949.”

Famed former Legg-Mason investor Bill Miller warned several years ago that “when people realize they can actually lose money in bonds, they panic”. Going into the inflationary 1970s, he said, “investors had done so well in bonds for so long they viewed them as essentially riskless, until it was too late.”
Investors have been warned for years about a bond crash that never panned out until recently. The chorus of financial pundits have said that the Federal Reserve’s massive quantitative easing and the federal government’s fiscal response to the financial crisis would ultimately cause inflation and crater bonds, it turns out they were right.

As a result, investors are piling out of bonds, which have seen outflows for ten straight weeks. Municipal bonds have seen historic outflows and are about to post their worst quarter since 1994, down more than 5%, according to Bloomberg. Investors have also been fleeing high-yield debt, especially as the Fed has turned increasingly hawkish this month.

You won’t find many financial professionals, other than fixed-income specialists, recommending big exposure to bonds right now. The outlook is just too uncertain.

“Bonds have nowhere to go but down since [interest] rates have nowhere to go but up.” Liz Young, SoFi Chief Investment Officer

Bonds are not expected to rally or perform better if growth slows, unless there is a meaningful dent in the outlook for inflation, and it would take a very deep and lengthy downturn to do so, as economists and financial pundits have warned.

Bonds have sold off and they haven’t served as downside protection within an investor’s diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds. Year-to-date, bonds have returned -8.7% YTD on 7-10-year Treasury bonds compared to a -6.0% YTD return in the S&P 500.

When bonds are in the red and cash is losing value because of inflation, investors turn to the stock market, at least tactically.

In this environment, “real assets” like real estate and commodities have done extremely well tend to do well in a tough investment environment for the long run (gold, metals, energy — along with globally diversified real estate).

As for stocks, Bill Smead, of Smead Capital Management, likes energy and housing market plays; noted investor Bill Miller likes energy, financials, housing stocks, travel-related names, and even some Chinese stocks (he’s also still bullish on mega-cap tech like Amazon and Meta).

The S&P 500 overall has been impressively resilient thus far, hanging in there with drop of less than 5% since the start of January–less than bonds, in other words. As bond losses deepen, don’t be surprised to see the “TINA” (There Is No Alternative) dynamic continue to bolster stocks.

However, there are several good reasons for purchasing bonds and including them in your portfolio:

  • Bonds are a generally safe investment, which is one of their advantages. Bond prices do not move nearly as much as stock prices.
  • Bonds provide a consistent income stream by paying you a defined sum of interest twice a year.
  • Bonds provide diversification to your portfolio, which is perhaps the most important benefit of investing in them. Stocks have outperformed bonds throughout time, but having a mix of both can lower your financial risk.

References:

  1. https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/investment-products/bonds-or-fixed-income-products/bonds
  2. https://www.themoneyfarm.org/investment/bonds/why-is-there-a-market-for-bonds/
  3. https://www.sofi.com/blog/liz-looks-stocks-vs-bonds/
  4. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/28/kelly-evans-its-getting-ugly-out-there-for-bonds.html
  5. https://archerbaycapital.com/bond-market-more-important-to-economy/

Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining market equity values.