Tag Archives: Investment

Price-to-Free Cash Flow Ratio (P/FCF)

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Free Cash Flow (FCF) – The cash left after making investments in capital assets

The price-to-free cash flow ratio (P/FCF) is a valuation method used to compare a company’s current market share price to its per-share free cash flow.

Free cash flow (FCF) measures a company’s financial performance. It measures how much cash a business can generate after accounting for capital expenditures such as buildings or equipment. In other words, FCF measures a company’s ability to produce what investors care most about: cash that’s available to be distributed in a discretionary way.

FCF is calculated with the formula below:

Free Cash Flow = Operating Cash Flow (CFO) – Capital Expenditures

Most information needed to compute a company’s FCF is on the cash flow statement. As an example, let Company A have $22 million dollars of cash from its business operations and $6.5 million dollars used for capital expenditures, net of changes in working capital. Company A’s FCF is then computed as:

FCF = $22 – $6.5 = $15.5m

Free cash flow relies heavily on the state of a company’s cash from operations (CFO). The cash from operations deals with the cash inflows and outflows directly related to the company’s primary activity: selling a good or service. Cash from operations is heavily influenced by the company’s net income (excluding depreciation).  

The presence of free cash flow indicates that a company has cash to expand, develop new products, buy back stock, pay dividends, or reduce its debt. High or rising free cash flow is often a sign of a healthy and growing company that is thriving in its current environment.

For investors, free cash flow measures a company’s ability to generate cash, which is a fundamental basis for stock pricing. This is why some people value free cash flow more than just about any other financial measure out there, including earnings per share or book value per share.

Investors should understand that companies can manipulate their free cash flow by lengthening the time they take to pay the bills (preserving their cash), shortening the time it takes to collect what’s owed to them (accelerating the receipt of cash), and putting off buying inventory (preserving cash). Also, companies have some leeway about what items are or are not considered capital expenditures, and the investor should be aware of this when comparing the free cash flow of different companies.

Since FCF has a direct impact on the worth of a company, investors should hunt for companies that have high or improving free cash flow but low correlated market share prices.

Low P/FCF ratios typically can mean the shares of the underlying company are undervalued. Thus, the lower the P/FCF ratio, the “cheaper” and better value the stock remains. 

The best, most successful investors are continually learning and continually honing and expanding their skills at making money in the financial markets.

References:

  1. https://investinganswers.com/dictionary/p/price-free-cash-flow-ratio-pfcf
  2. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/valuation/what-is-free-cash-flow-fcf/
  3. https://investinganswers.com/dictionary/f/free-cash-flow

Choosing a Financial Advisor

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Choosing a financial advisor is a major life decision that can potentially determine your financial net worth trajectory for years to come. 

A 2020 Northwestern Mutual study found that 71% of U.S. adults admit their financial planning needs improvement. However, only 29% of Americans work with a financial advisor.

The value of working with a financial advisor varies by person and advisors are legally prohibited from promising returns, but research suggests people who work with a financial advisor feel more at ease about their finances and could end up with about 15% more money to spend in retirement, according to SmartAsset.com.

A recent Vanguard study found that, on average, a $500K investment would grow to over $3.4 million under the care of an advisor over 25 years, whereas the expected value from self-management would be $1.69 million, or 50% less. In other words, an advisor guided portfolio would average 8% annualized growth over a 25-year period, compared to 5% from a self-managed portfolio.

But, it essential that you do your homework in selecting a financial advisor. There are several key questions to ask and factors to consider regarding anyone who may advise you in money matters:

  1. What’s your philosophy of investing?” If they can’t articulate their philosophy in a few simple paragraphs, in plain English, then keep looking.
  2. “What has been one of your greatest triumphs in the market? And what was the decision making that brought you to it? What did you learn from the process?” Then ask, “What about one of your biggest mistakes? What went wrong and what did you learn from it?”
  3. “What do you own yourself? Where do you put your own money?”
  4. Hire an advisor who is a Fiduciary. By definition, a fiduciary is an individual who is ethically bound to act in another person’s best interest. This obligation eliminates conflict of interest concerns and makes an advisor’s advice more trustworthy. 
  5. Pick an advisor with an compatible strategy. Each advisor has a unique strategy. Some advisors may suggest aggressive investments, while others are more conservative. If you prefer to go all-in on stocks, an advisor that prefers bonds and index funds is not a great match for your style.
  6. Ask about credentials. To give investment advice, financial advisors are required to pass a test. Ask your advisor about their licenses, tests, and credentials. Financial advisors tests include the Series 7, and Series 66 or Series 65. Some advisors go a step further and become a Certified Financial Planner, or CFP.  

Many people who want to oversee and manage your money probably don’t have significant assets of their own. You would want a money manager to have skin in the game, to be eating their own cooking.

References:

  1. https://news.northwesternmutual.com/planning-and-progress-2020
  2. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/19/fathers-day-letter-to-kid-money-life-lessons-people-learn-too-late-in-life.html
  3. https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/how-america-invests-2020.pdf
  4. https://article.smartasset.com/financial-advisor-secrets-1/

Planning and Achieving Financial Freedom

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Financial freedom can be an elusive—and hard-to-define—goal.

Financial freedom is often said to be in the eye of the beholder. To some it may mean freedom of debt and being able to fund your lifestyle with your cash flow; to others it may mean early retirement on a Caribbean island. Whatever your financial goals or definition of financial freedom, there are ways and things you can learn to help you get your financial house in order.

Once you’ve decided that financial freedom is one of your top goals, you can start taking steps to achieve it. Thus, the first step toward achieving financial freedom is to define exactly what it means for you. You can’t generally achieve something that you haven’t defined. So, once you’ve defined what financial freedom means to you, you can start taking steps toward your goals.

“What then is freedom? The power to live as one wishes.” Marcus Tullius Cicero

Just because you have money does not mean you have financial freedom. There have been numerous people, especially professional athletes and entertainers, who have earned millions of dollars and subsequently lost it all through reckless spending and debilitating debt. Thus, even if you have a lot of money, if you don’t know how to manage and make your money work for you, it will more than likely disappear.

Financial freedom typically means having enough savings, financial assets, and cash on hand to afford the kind of life you desire for yourself and your families. It means growing savings and investments to a level that enables you to retire or pursue the career you want without being driven to earn a wage or salary each year. Financial freedom means your money and assets are working hard for you rather than the other way around…you’re working hard for your money.

In other words, financial freedom is about much more than just having money. It’s the freedom to be who you really are and do what you really want in life. It’s about following your passion, making choices that aren’t influenced by your bank account, net worth or cash flow, and living life on your terms.

Track your expenses

It’s difficult to know how to save money if you don’t have a good idea of where your money is going. Carefully track your spending habits for a typical month. Doing this will help you to become more conscious of your discretionary expenditures. It will also reinforce what expenses are essential and remind you to plan for unexpected expenditures, like medical emergencies and car repairs. Therefore, it is vital to understand and to know where your money is going.

Make a budget

Once you’ve taken inventory of your expenses, next step is to create a budget. While budgeting can sound like a cumbersome task, you may want to start by using a budgeting calculator to get a feel for how you are currently spending your money and how you’d like to change your spending.

One popular budgeting method is the 50/30/20 rule. The 50/30/20 rule is a way to divide your post-tax income based on your needs, wants and savings. The rule states that people should spend 50% of their income on their needs. This includes health insurance, housing, transportation, and groceries. Then, the guideline states that people should spend 30% of their income on wants or non-necessities such as entertainment, travel, and more. Finally, the last 20% of a person’s income should be saved or invested. This might include retirement savings and building a stock portfolio.

Once you have created a budget, don’t put it in a drawer and forget about it. Instead, make it a working and living document that you check and refer to often. Spend a half-hour per month reviewing how your actual expenses match your budget and make adjustments as necessary.

Automate your savings

Automating your savings and investing is one of the easiest steps you can take to ensure that you are on the path to financial freedom. You can set automated contributions to your employer-sponsored investments, including your 401(k) contributions and employee stock options.

When your savings and investing are automated, your money will continue to grow without you having to think about it. This will help you to reach your financial goals easily and quickly.

Have some percentage (10% to 20%) of your paycheck automatically deposited into a separate account—whether it’s a savings account, a 401(k) or an IRA. Money that isn’t easily accessible is not easily spent.

Unfortunately, many Americans are not saving enough to maintain their current standard of living during their retirement years. It was found that about 21% of Americans have nothing saved for retirement, according to the Northwestern Mutual’s 2018 Planning & Progress Study.

Start investing early

Follow the adage, the best time to start investing was twenty years ago; the second best time is today. You should start investing in a tax deferred account, preferably with your employer matching a portion or all of your contribution.

Planning for retirement is a marathon and not a sprint. Even if you are starting small, the most important thing is to get started. Therefore, it will likely take decades to reach your goal. Therefore, it is important to remember why you want to achieve financial freedom. Keeping your purpose, goals and the bigger picture in mind will help you navigate the day-to-day financial decisions.

Once you become financially free, you have more choices of how to live your life and spend your days.

When you decide that you want to start working toward financial freedom, it is important to remember that you will not become financially free overnight. However, according to certified financial planner David Rae, in a 2018 article in Forbes magazine, there are eight hierarchies of financial freedom that you can work towards:

  1. Level 1: Not Living Paycheck to Paycheck – The first level of financial freedom is building up an emergency fund and paying off any credit card debt. Unfortunately, living paycheck to paycheck is the reality of millions of Americans. According to the Federal Reserve’s Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2017, some 40% of households could not cover a $400 unexpected expense.
  2. Level 2: Enough Money to take a sabbatical from your work – Accumulating enough money to be able to take a break away from work can be rewarding. This does not mean you have to quit your job, but it sure is a good feeling to know you can.
  3. Level 3: Enough to be Financially Happy and still Save – it’s about enjoying your life and having the money to do it. There can be peace when you are earning enough to save, doing the things you enjoy and still having extra at the end of the month.
  4. Level 4: Freedom of Time – Many people desire more flexibility with their schedules. Freedom of time and financial independence go hand in hand. Together, they are about following your passion, or spending more time with family, and not going completely broke doing it.
  5. Level 5: Enough for a Basic Retirement – Think about what your bare minimum retirement would look like. By knowing your bare minimum retirement, and knowing that you have enough money saved to at least cover some standard of living in your retirement, will also influence other life choices you may make along the way.
  6. Level 6: Enough to Actually Retire Well – Knowing you are on track to accumulate a nest egg to support that lifestyle is a big win. Well done to those who have accumulated enough assets, or passive income streams, to be in a position to retire well.
  7. Level 7: Enough for Dream Retirement – It would feel great knowing that you are on track to have enough money to retire and be able to live your dream life. What is stopping you from getting there.
  8. Level 8: More Money Than You Could Ever Spend – Having more money than you expected to spend is great. Building enough wealth so that you could not possibly spend all of it is another.

Bottomline is that if you want to be financially free, if you want to be able to live the lifestyle of your choosing while responsibly managing your finances, you need to become a different person than you are today and let go of the financial mindset that has created your current financial predicament and has held you back in the past.

Attaining financial freedom, which means having enough savings, investments and cash flow to live as you desire, both now and in your later years, requires a continuous process of growth, learning and emotional strength. In other words, whatever has held you back and provided you comfort in the past or kept you less than who you really are will have to be replaced. You will have to become comfortable for awhile being uncomfortable. And in return, the financially empowered, purposeful, and successful you will emerge — like a butterfly shedding its cocoon.

References:

  1. https://www.richdad.com/what-is-financial-freedom
  2. https://smartasset.com/financial-advisor/financial-freedom
  3. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidrae/2019/04/09/levels-of-financial-freedom

Best Business to Own When Inflation Spikes

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Invest in asset-light businesses with pricing power.

In a letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, the best type of business to own when inflation spikes, according to Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett, have two characteristics that make a business well adapted to an inflationary environment:

  1. An ability to increase prices easily, and
  2. An ability to take on more business without having to spend too much in order to do it.

In other words, aim to invest in asset-light businesses with pricing power.

Buffett also stated that the best business to own is one that doesn’t require continuous reinvestment of capital because it becomes more and more expensive as the value of a dollar drops.

“The best businesses during inflation are the businesses that you buy once and then you don’t have to keep making capital investments subsequently,” Buffett said, adding that “any business with heavy capital investment tends to be a poor business to be in inflation and often it’s a poor business to be in generally.”

Businesses like utilities or railroads “keep eating up more and more money” and aren’t as profitable, he explained. He prefers to own companies that people have a connection to. That is why “a brand is a wonderful thing to own during inflation,” Buffett said. Owning part of “a wonderful business,” as Buffett said in 2009, is useful because no matter what happens with the value of the dollar, the business’ product will still be in demand.

Buffett also said that it’s particularly handy to own real estate during times of inflation because the purchase is a “one-time outlay” for the investor, and has the added benefit of being able to be resold.

Inflation quietly eats away at earnings and purchasing power.

When the economy exhibits strong economic growth, there is a higher demand for goods and services, which in effect increases prices of those goods and services; that’s attributed to inflation. Essentially, the rate of inflation increases when demand in the economy is higher than supply, causing an overall price rise.

Inflation also impacts money sitting in the bank. While you may be receiving interest on savings from a money market account, the growth of inflation can outpace that of the savings rate offered by the bank. Keeping all your savings in cash is warranting your liquid assets a definite loss to inflation.

Effectively, your money does not grow at a higher rate, but loses purchasing power over time compared to if it was properly invested in equity assets.

Inflation

“By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of [all] their citizens.” John Maynard Keynes

Inflation is tracked using the Consumer Price Index, known as the (CPI). This index, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics each month, measures the average change over time of prices consumers pay for goods and services.

The immediate effects of inflation are the changes in the behavior of consumption habits. In the long-term, inflation erodes the purchasing power of your income and accumulated wealth.

“Inflation reduces the ‘power’ of each dollar you have,” says Rob Isbitts, co-founder of The Hedged Investor in Weston, Florida. “A dollar is a dollar, but what it buys can be less in the future than it is today.”

Purchasing power risk – also known as inflation risk – is when the real interest rate, which accounts for adjusted inflation, shows the gain or loss in purchasing power.

“Inflation reduces the ‘power’ of each dollar you have,” says Rob Isbitts, co-founder of The Hedged Investor in Weston, Florida. “A dollar is a dollar, but what it buys can be less in the future than it is today.”

Assets That Protect Against Inflation

Inflation can pose a threat to investments since prices that increase over time can decrease the value of your savings.

And, financial experts agree that there is no way to fully protect your investments against inflation. Nonetheless, there are ways to help protect against this risk. These experts say having a substantial allocation to stocks is important for growth potential while offsetting against inflation risk.

In the long term, the stock market is expected to outperform the inflation rate. Stocks are commonly thought of as an inflation protection asset since, over time, stock performance will outpace inflation. These assets are seen as a hedge against inflation:

  • TIPS, or Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, which are bonds backed by the full faith of the U.S. government and protect against rising prices, make a very safe asset
  • REITs, or real estate investment trusts, are an organic hedge against inflation. When prices increase, real estate values increase as well. This asset is highly correlated with inflation, which means REIT returns are higher when inflation increases.
  • Gold is an asset that might provide protection against inflation and a good safeguard of inflation over the long run,

Inflation can significantly weaken your purchasing power and the performance of your investments and thus impact their value. That’s why acting to suppress the dangers of inflation is important to preserve the value of your cash flow and wealth in the long run.

References:

  1. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-says-best-type-195900081.html
  2. https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/how-inflation-and-deflation-impact-your-investments
  3. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/warren-buffett-inflation-best-businesses.html

Black Wealth Summit

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Receiving a College Degree Accumulates Wealth for Whites and Not For Blacks

Wealth managers investing billions of dollars toward racial equity are confronting disparities that are growing worse in some ways even as there are some notable signs of change, according to the Black Wealth Summit. For example, the typical White family has eight times the wealth of the typical Black family, according to the 2019 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF). The research showed that long-standing and substantial wealth disparities between families in different racial and ethnic groups were little changed since the last survey in 2016.

Wealth is defined as the difference between families’ gross assets and their liabilities.

During the Black Wealth Summit, John Rogers of Ariel Investments cited studies by the St. Louis Fed showing that white households with college degrees tend to build wealth while net worth often declines among Black college graduates. The median and mean wealth of Black families is less than 15% of White households’ wealth, according to the Fed’s latest figures from last year.

John Rogers launched the nation’s first Black-owned money management and mutual fund firm when he was only 24 years old. His firm has reached nearly $17 billion in assets under management.

Signs of change amid widening disparities

The data confirms prior research on the role of parental wealth in the transmission of lasting economic advantage: Less-wealthy parents, mostly Blacks, are less able to financially help their adult children, making it more difficult for the next generation to accumulate wealth.

In addition, Black college-educated households are far more likely than their White counterparts to give financial support to their parents. These parents may have entered the workforce at a time when their only employment provided no pension or retirement savings benefits, or even Social Security.

In contrast, parents of White college-educated households have mostly benefited from employment-related retirement benefits. Thus, the pattern among White and Black college-educated households is the opposite: Young college-educated White households are more likely to receive financial support from parents and at considerably higher levels

The findings confirms prior research, which shows that the typical Black college-educated household does not have the same opportunities to add to their family wealth building as their White counterparts, who report large wealth gains at least up to the Great Recession.

Understanding factors such as inter-generational transfers, homeownership opportunities, access to tax-sheltered savings plans, and individuals’ savings and investment decisions contribute to wealth accumulation and families’ financial security.

References:

  1. https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/2017-02-15/family-achievements-how-a-college-degree-accumulates-wealth-for-whites-and-not-for-blacks.pdf
  2. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/disparities-in-wealth-by-race-and-ethnicity-in-the-2019-survey-of-consumer-finances-20200928.htm

Sequence of Returns Risk in Retirement

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A stock market pullback can pose a risk early in retirement.

Retirees face many risks when investing for retirement. Markets crash, inflation can eat into your returns, you might even worry about outliving your savings. And, there’s another big retirement risk: Sequence of returns risk.

Down markets can pose significant “sequence of returns” risk in the early years of retirement. Sequence risk is the danger that the timing of withdrawals from a retirement account will have a negative impact on the overall rate of return available to the investor, according to Investopedia.

A “sequence of returns” risk is basically about how the order, or sequence, of stock returns over time — combined with your portfolio withdrawals — can impact your balance down the road.

Once you start withdrawing income, you’re affected by the change in the sequence in which the returns occurred. During your retirement years, if a high proportion of negative returns occur in the beginning years of your retirement, it will have a lasting negative effect and reduce the amount of income you can withdraw over your lifetime.

Timing is everything. Sequence risk is the danger that the timing of withdrawals from a retirement account will damage the investor’s overall return. Account withdrawals during a bear market are more costly than the same withdrawals in a bull market.

“If there’s a big loss in the market and you’re taking withdrawals, you could be taking more from your portfolio than what it can make up for,” said certified financial planner Avani Ramnani, managing director at Francis Financial in New York. “If that happens early in retirement … the recovery may be very weak and put you in danger of not recovering at all or being lower than where you would have been and therefore jeopardizing your retirement lifestyle.”

One of the basic rules of investing is that a long-term strategy is self-correcting. And, for long-term investors — those whose retirement is many years or decades away — such market drops matter less because there’s time for their portfolios to recover from this risk before they need to start relying on that money for cash flow in retirement.

Retirement is a long game.

Since running out of money in retirement is the primary concern for most retirees, fortunately, there are options for mitigating the risk:

  • Plan to spend more conservatively since the less you spend consistently, the less you have to withdraw overall.
  • Withdraw and spend less when your portfolio performance is suffering. 
  • Reduce the risk in your portfolio by creating a low stock allocation early in retirement but increase it over time, or use bonds for short-term expenses and stocks for long-term ones.
  • Set aside assets outside your investment portfolio that can support your spending needs when stocks are underperforming.

You may simply be able to meet your goals without taking on the risk that comes with stocks.

Key Takeaways

Sequence of return risk is basically the risk that market declines in the early years of retirement, paired with ongoing withdrawals, could significantly reduce the longevity of your portfolio. Thus, timing is everything, and in retirement early market declines, particularly if they are paired with rising inflation, can have a huge effect on how long a nest egg can sustain you in retirement.

The recommended way to mitigate sequence of returns risk when you can’t predict future market performance or future rates of inflation is by managing spending and/or keeping a portion of your portfolio in liquid assets, such as cash or bonds, to ride out the market downturn.

When market returns are high and inflation is low, retirees can distribute more from their portfolios, according to Forbes Advisor Staff Editors Rob Berger and Benjamin Curry. When market returns are negative and inflation is higher than expected, retirees reduce the amount of their annual distributions.

Remember, no one can forecast market performance or economic inflation. Yet, by managing your spending, you can adjust annual withdrawal amounts to reflect inflation and market returns.

References:

  1. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sequence-risk.asp
  2. https://www.thebalance.com/how-sequence-risk-affects-your-retirement-money-2388672
  3. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/21/stock-market-pullback-is-a-big-risk-early-in-retirement-what-to-know.html
  4. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/retirement/sequence-of-returns-risk/

Avoiding Investment Fraud

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Financially savvy and experienced investors, along with inexperienced investors, fall prey to investment fraud frequently.

Researchers have found that investment fraudsters hit their targets with an array of persuasion social engineering techniques that are tailored to the victim’s psychological profile.

Here are several “red flags” to look for:

  • If it sounds too good to be true, it is. Any investment opportunity that claims you’ll receive substantially more could be highly risky – and that means you might lose money. Be careful of claims that an investment will make “incredible gains,” is a “breakout stock pick” or has “huge upside and almost no risk!” Claims like these are hallmarks of extreme risk or outright fraud.
  • “Guaranteed returns” aren’t. Every investment carries some degree of risk, which is reflected in the rate of return you can expect to receive. If your money is perfectly safe, you’ll most likely get a low return. High returns entail high risks, possibly including a total loss on the investments. Most fraudsters spend a lot of time trying to convince investors that extremely high returns are “guaranteed” or “can’t miss.” They try to plant an image in your head of what your life will be like when you are rich. Don’t believe it.
  • Beware the “halo” effect. Investors can be blinded by a “halo” effect when a con artist comes across as likeable or trustworthy. Credibility can be faked. Check out actual qualifications.
  • “Everyone is buying it.” Watch out for pitches that stress how “everyone is investing in this, so you should, too.” Think about whether you are interested in the product. If a sales presentation focuses on how many others have bought the product, this could be a red flag.
  • Pressure to send money RIGHT NOW. Scam artists often tell their victims that this is a once-in-a-lifetime offer and it will be gone tomorrow. But resist the pressure to invest quickly and take the time you need to investigate before sending money.
  • Reciprocity. Fraudsters often try to lure investors through free investment seminars, figuring if they do a small favor for you, such as supplying a free lunch, you will do a big favor for them and invest in their product. There is never a reason to make a quick decision on an investment. If you attend a free lunch, take the material home and research both the investment and the individual selling it before you invest. Always make sure the product is right for you and that you understand what you are buying and all the associated fees.

What You Can Do to Avoid Investment Fraud

  • Ask questions. Fraudsters are counting on you not to investigate before you invest. Fend them off by doing your own digging. It’s not enough to ask for more information or for references – fraudsters have no incentive to set you straight. Take the time to do your own independent research.
  • Research before you invest. Unsolicited emails, message board postings, and company news releases should never be used as the sole basis for your investment decisions. Understand a company’s business and its products or services before investing. Look for the company’s financial statements by searching SEC’s EDGAR filing system.
  • Know the salesperson. Spend some time checking out the person touting the investment before you invest – even if you already know the person socially. Always find out whether the securities salespeople who contact you are licensed to sell securities in your state and whether they or their firms have had run-ins with regulators or other investors. You can check out the disciplinary history of brokers and advisers for free using the SEC’s and FINRA’s online databases.
  • Be wary of unsolicited offers.Be especially careful if you receive an unsolicited pitch to invest in a company, or see it praised online, but can’t find current financial information about it from independent sources. It could be a “pump and dump” scheme. Be wary if someone recommends foreign or “off-shore” investments. If something goes wrong, it’s harder to find out what happened and to locate money sent abroad.
  • Protect yourself online. Online and social marketing sites offer a wealth of opportunity for fraudsters. For tips on how to protect yourself online see Protect Your Social Media Accounts.

You should strive to become an educated investor and to know what to look for. Make yourself knowledgeable about different types of scams and red flags that may signal investment fraud.

References:

  1. https://www.investor.gov/protect-your-investments/fraud/how-avoid-fraud/what-you-can-do-avoid-investment-fraud
  2. https://www.investor.gov/protect-your-investments/fraud/how-avoid-fraud/protect-your-social-media-accounts

Believe in the Power of Compounding

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“Compounding is the eighth wonder of the world.” Albert Einstein

It is said that Albert Einstein once noted that the most powerful force in the universe is the principle of compounding. In simple terms, compound interest means that you begin to earn interest on the interest you receive, which multiplies your money at an accelerating rate. This is one significant reason for the success of many top investors.

Believe in the power of compounding

The key to successful investing is patience to search and wait for great companies that are selling for half or less than what they were worth (intrinsic value), and to hold the investment for the forever. The task is to try to buy a dollar of value for a fifty cents price, and to hold the investment for the long term.

  • Compound interest is the interest you earn on interest.
  • Compounding allows exponential growth for your principal.
  • Compounding interest can be good or bad depending on whether you are a saver or a borrower.
  • Think of stocks as a small piece of a business
  • Think of Investment fluctuations, volatility, are a benefit to a patient investor, rather than a curse.
  • Focus your attention on businesses where you think you understand the competitive advantages
  • The more people respond to short term events allow patient and value investors to make a lot of money.
  • Buy stocks when things are cheap. It’s important to control your emotions.

The key is that if you spend less than you earn, you put something away, and that little something can become more and more and eventually what you want to do is you want to be your own boss.” Mohnish Prbrai

Four important factors that determine how your money will compound:

  1. The profit you earn on your investment.
  2. The length of time you can leave your money to compound. The longer your money remains uninterrupted, the bigger your fortune can grow.
  3. The tax rate and the timing of the tax you have to pay to the government. You will earn far more money if you do not have to pay taxes at all or if the taxes are deferred.
  4. The risk you are willing to take with your money. Risk will determine the return potential, and ultimately determine whether compounding is a realistic expectation.

Rule of 72

The Rule of 72 is a great way to estimate how your investment will grow over time. If you know the interest rate, the Rule of 72 can tell you approximately how long it will take for your investment to double in value. Simply divide the number 72 by your investment’s expected rate of return (interest rate).

“The first rule of compounding: Never interrupt it unnecessarily. The elementary mathematics of compound interest is one of the most important models there is on earth.” Warren Buffett

The power of compounding is truly visible with billionaire investor Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha. He first became a billionaire at the age of 56 in 1986. Today, his net worth is over $100 billion at the age of 90-plus. And that’s after he donated tens of billions of stock to charity. His wealth is due to compounding, over 99% of the billionaire’s net worth was built after the age of 56.

When you understand the time value of money, you’ll see that compounding and patience are the ingredients for wealth. Compounding is the first step towards long-term wealth creation.

References:

  1. https://www.thebalance.com/the-power-of-compound-interest-358054
  2. https://www.valuewalk.com/2020/07/power-compounding-getting-rich/

Auto Enrollment Retirement Plans are Here

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“Americans aren’t saving enough for retirement and nearly half of people 55 and older have nothing saved for when they stop working. Government Accounting Office

Nearly one in four working-age Americans aren’t saving for retirement, and those who are say they aren’t saving enough, according to a PwC analysis. Further, a majority (55%) said they either are not participating in a workplace sponsored retirement plan like a 401(k) or they don’t know if they are in a plan.

The Government Accountability Office reports that nearly half of people 55 and older have nothing saved for when they stop working, meaning there is a building retirement-savings crisis and a wave of future retirees threatens to overburden an already fragile Social Security Administration. Consequently, this can upset a balanced economy that relies on older Americans spending money in the housing and health-care sectors.

Auto-enrollment retirement plans

Auto-enrollment and auto-escalation programs implemented by a few states have proved successful at closing that gap, particularly for workers in retail and service sectors of the economy. These sectors in the past have rarely offered retirement benefits to low-income staff.

In fact, plans that used automatic enrollment had a 92% participation rate in 2020, compared with 62% for plans with voluntary enrollment, according to Vanguard’s “How America Saves 2021” research. And, employees who worked for firms with automatic enrollment saved more than 50% more for retirement in 2020 than those employed at firms with voluntary enrollment.

Further, research shows that participants enrolled in a plan with automatic increase save, on average, 20% to 30% more after three years in the plan, compared with participants in an automatic enrollment plan that does not automatically increase participants.

As a result, Congress is proposing a Federal mandatory framework for workplace retirement plans. Starting in 2023, the retirement saving plan would require employers with more than five workers to automatically enroll new hires for retirement benefits, the contributions to which would automatically increase over time.

In short, businesses would automatically deduct 6% of new workers’ income into a low-cost retirement plan and automatically escalated that contribution to 10% over time, unless workers themselves opted for something different.

It’s mandatory for employers, but not their employees, who can choose to opt out of the savings plan or change their contributions. But the default choice would always be to signup, essentially making retirement funds a statutory benefit like unemployment or workers’ compensation insurance.

Failure to provide a low-cost retirement option such as a 401(k) or individual retirement account would cost a business an excise tax liability of $10 for every worker per day of noncompliance, which would add up.

Over the last two decades, continued adoption of automatic solutions has increased employee savings and the use of professionally managed allocations. Thoughtful retirement plan designs are helping people save and invest for retirement.

References:

  1. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-tax-report/retirement-savings-and-democrats-latest-tax-plans-explained
  2. https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/asset-wealth-management/library/retirement-in-america.html
  3. https://institutional.vanguard.com/content/dam/inst/vanguard-has/insights-pdfs/21_TL_HAS_InsightsToAction_2021.pdf

Financial Metrics for Evaluating a Stock

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“If you don’t study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.” Peter Lynch

Anyone can be successful investing in the stock market. But, it does take thorough research, patience, discipline and resilience. And, it’s important to appreciate that “Behind every stock, there is a company. Find out what it’s doing”, says Peter Lynch, who managed the Fidelity Magellan Fund from 1977 to 1990 and achieved an impressive return which reportedly averaged over 20% per year.

With a long-term view to investing, Lynch would patiently wait for the company to become recognized by Wall Street for its growth, which subsequently unleashed an explosive rise in its stock price as smart money and institutional investors rush to buy stock.

In his book “One Up On Wall Street”, he reveals his principles and metrics for successful investing. Here are 11 financial metrics investors can utilize to evaluate a company’s value:

  1. Market Cap – Shows the current size and scale of the company. “If a picture is worth a thousand words, in business, so is a number.” Peter Lynch
  2. Strong Balance Sheet (Cash on Hand / Long Term Debt to Equity) – Shows how financially sound a business has become and its capacity to withstand an economic downturn. Determine if the company’s cash has been increasing and long term debt has been decreasing?
  3. Sales and Earnings Growth Rates – Shows if the business model works & current growth rate
  4. Free Cash Flow – Shows if company generating or burning through cash
  5. Returns on Capital (ROE / ROIC / ROA)- shows capital efficiency of business
  6. Margins (Gross Profit Margin / Operating Margin / Profit Margin / Net Income) – Shows current profit profile of products, spending rates, & potential for operating leverage
  7. Total Addressable Market – What is market size and long term growth potential for the company.
  8. Long Term (5+ years) Stock Performance vs. market – has the stock created or destroyed value for shareholders. “In the long run, it’s not just how much money you make that will determine your future prosperity. It’s how much of that money you put to work by saving it and investing it.” Petere Lynch
  9. Current Valuation (Price to Sales / Price to Earnings / Price to Book / Price to FCF) – How expensive or inexpensive is the stock price.or is the company reasonably priced. “If you can follow only one bit of data, follow the earnings (assuming the company in question has earnings). I subscribe to the crusty notion that sooner or later earnings make or break an investment in equities. What the stock price does today, tomorrow, or next week is only a distraction.” Peter Lynch
  10. Mission and Vision Statement – Understand why the company exist.  What is it doing. “Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.” Peter Lynch
  11. Insider Ownership – Do insiders have skin in the game. SEC Filings. Information available on proxy statement.

Additionally, it is important to figure out:

  1. What is changing
  2. What is not changing
  3. Is there an underappreciation for either. “Your investor’s edge is not something you get from Wall Street experts. It’s something you already have. You can outperform the experts if you use your edge by investing in companies or industries you already understand.” Peter Lynch

Do that well, move on #3, you’re the best investor in the world.

As an investor, unless you understand the underlying business of a company, you will not be able to hold its stock when the price is falling. You could end up selling a great company out of fear – even though its price will recover in the future and give you great returns in the years to come. The ability to hold a good company even when its stock price is falling or undergoing a time correction – will play a crucial role in you becoming a successful investor.

In the long run, the stock price will go up only if the business of the company does well.

In Peter Lynch’s own words “I think you have to learn that there’s a company behind every stock, and that there’s only one real reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies”

If you like a stock, buy small quantity of shares. Study the company in more detail. Buy more shares if you like its business. As your understanding of the business increases, your conviction (confidence) will also increase, this will allow you to give higher allocation in your portfolio.

Categories of Stocks in the Stock Market

Peter Lynch divided different stocks into six categories

Slow Growers – Slow growers are those stocks that have a slow growth rate i.e. a low upward slope of earnings and revenue growth.These slow growers can be characterized by the size and generosity of their dividend. According to Peter Lynch, the only reason to buy these stocks are dividends.

The Stalwarts – The Stalwarts have an average growth rate as that of industry and are usually mid to large companies. They have an earnings growth between the 8-12 percent CAGR range. According to Peter Lynch, investors can get an adequate return from these stocks if they hold these stocks for a long time.

The Fast Growers – The fast growers are generally aggressive companies and they grow at an impressive rate of 15-25% per year. They are fast-growth stocks and grow at a comparatively faster rate compared to the industry average and competitors. However, Peter Lynch advises that one should be open-eyed when they own a fast grower. There is a great likelihood for the fast growers to get hammered if they run out of steam or if their growth is not sustainable.

The Cyclicals – Cyclical are stocks that grow at a very fast pace during their favorable economic cycle. The cyclical companies tend to flourish when coming out of a recession into a vigorous economy. Peter Lynch advises investors to own the cyclical only on the right part of the cycle i.e. when they are expanding. If bought at the wrong phase, it may even take them years before they perform. Timing is everything while investing in cyclical stocks.

The Turnarounds – The turnarounds are characterized as potential fatalities that have been badly hammered by the market for one or more of a variety of reasons but can make up the lost ground under the correct circumstances. Holding turnarounds can be very profitable if the management is able to turn the company as these stocks can be bought at a very low valuation by the investors. However, if the management fails to bring back the company on track, it can be very troublesome for the investors.

Asset Plays – Asset Plays are those stocks whose assets are overlooked by the market and are undervalued. These assets may be properties, equipment, or other real assets that the company is holding but which is not valued by the investors when there has been a general market downturn. The real value may be worth more than the market capitalization of the company. Peter Lynch suggests owning a few of these stocks in your portfolio as they are most likely to add a lot of value to your portfolio. However, the biggest significant factor while picking these stocks is to carefully estimate the right worth of the assets. If you are able to do it, you can pick valuable gems.

“Average investors can become experts in their own field and can pick winning stocks as effectively as Wall Street professionals by doing just a little research.” Peter Lynch

Infinity income – When your income from investments is higher than your expenses, you might be able to live off those returns for 10 years, 30 years, 50 years… or forever!

References:

  1. https://stockinvestingtoday.blog/the-investing-style-of-peter-lynch?
  2. https://www.thebalance.com/peter-lynch-s-secret-formula-for-valuing-a-stock-s-growth-3973486
  3. https://goldenfs.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/summary-One-Up-On-Wall-Street-Peter-Lynch-2-scaled.jpg