Tag Archives: Long-Term Investing

Warren Buffett’s Three Investing Principles

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If you want to invest on your own, billionaire investor Warren Buffett recommends three investing principles that have guided him over the decades.

The principles are derived from a book first published in 1949: “The Intelligent Investor”, written by Buffett’s mentor, Benjamin Graham:

Principle 1: Don’t look at a stock like it is a ticker symbol with a price that goes up and down on a chart. It’s a slice of a company’s profits far into the future, and that’s how they need to be evaluated.

Buffett has four things he wants to see, whether he’s buying the entire company for Berkshire, or just a slice of it as a stock:

  1. “One that we can understand …” When Buffett talks about “understanding” a company, he means he understands how that company will be able to make money far into the future. He’s often said he didn’t buy shares of what turned out to be very successful tech companies like Google and Microsoft because he didn’t understand them.
  2. “With favorable long-term prospects …” Buffett often refers to a company’s sustainable competitive advantage, something he calls a “moat.” A “moat” consists of things a company does to keep and gain loyal customers, such as low prices, quality products, proprietary technology, and, often, a well- known brand built through years of advertising, such as Coca-Cola. An established company in an industry that has large start-up costs that deter would be competitors can also have a moat.
  3. “Operated by honest and competent people …”. “Generally, we like people who are candid. We can usually tell when somebody’s dancing around something, or where their — when the reports are essentially a little dishonest, or biased, or something. And it’s just a lot easier to operate with people that are candid. “And we like people who are smart, you know. I don’t mean geniuses… And we like people who are focused on the business.” — 1995 BERKSHIRE ANNUAL MEETING. The quality of the business itself, however, takes precedence.
  4. “Available at a very attractive price.”Buffett’s goal is to buy when the price is below a company’s “intrinsic value.”“The intrinsic value of any business, if you could foresee the future perfectly, is the present value of all cash that will be ever distributed for that business between now and judgment day.“And we’re not perfect at estimating that, obviously”, Buffett stated. “But that’s what an investment or a business is all about. You put money in, and you take money out.”

Principle 2: The stock market is there to serve you, not instruct you.

Many non-professional investors become concerned when stock prices fall. They think the market is telling them they made a mistake. Some may even be so shaken that they sell stocks at the lower prices.

Buffett takes the opposite view. If he buys a stock because he thinks the company will be a long-term winner, he doesn’t let the market convince him otherwise.

Principle 3: Maintain a margin of safety

“We try not to do anything difficult …

“This is not like Olympic diving. In Olympic diving, they have a degree of difficulty factor. And if you can do some very difficult dive, the payoff is greater if you do it well than if you do some very simple dive.

“That’s not true in investments. You get paid just as well for the most simple dive, as long as you execute it all right. And there’s no reason to try those three-and-a-halfs when you get paid just as well for just diving off the side of the pool and going in cleanly.

“So, we look for one-foot bars to step over rather than seven-foot or eight-foot bars to try and set some Olympic record by jumping over. And it’s very nice, because you get paid just as well for the one-foot bars.” — 1998 BERKSHIRE ANNUAL MEETING

Low cost index funds

Buffett has long recommended that investors put their money in low-cost index funds, which hold every stock in an index, making them automatically diversified. The S&P 500, for example, includes big-name companies like Apple, Coca-Cola and Amazon.

Buffett said that for people looking to build wealth and their retirement savings, diversified index funds make “the most sense practically all of the time.”

“Consistently buy an S&P 500 low-cost index fund,” Buffett said in 2017. “Keep buying it through thick and thin, and especially through thin.”

References:

  1. https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2022/03/22/bwp22links.pdf
  2. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/02/warren-buffett-says-investing-is-a-simple-game.html

Investing 101: Building Long-Term Wealth

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Managing your money and building wealth has to be a priority if you ever want to be in a better financial situation than you are today. Ramit Sethi

If you’re like most people, you probably think investing is something only people with a lot of money can do. But here’s the truth: anyone can invest and everyone should be investing.

Everyone with expendable monthly income should be investing. Even if you aren’t making major bucks and even if you are still paying your student loans, you should be investing. Investing is a great long-term wealth building option that yields major rewards if you’re patient and smart about your investments.

Despite what you see on TV and social media, you don’t need to be (or even have) a stockbroker to get in on investing. In fact, it’s easier than ever to go at it alone, thanks to platforms like Charles Schwab, E-Trade and Robinhood. These sites (and others) offer no or low fee options for individual investors to start building a portfolio. Even better, some also give you access to financial planners who can provide investing tips and help answer questions along your investment journey.

Ready to start investing. Below are six investing tips from Brian Baker, investing and retirement reporter at Bankrate.com.

1. Think about your investing goals. First, people new to investing should ask themselves one simple question before getting started: How soon are you looking to see a return on your money? Or, how soon will you need the money you’ve invested?

If the answer is sooner, like less than six months, then you should skip investing in stocks and instead put your cash in a money market mutual fund or high yield savings account. These options won’t offer as big of a return as investing, but you’ll see steady increases over time. More importantly, all of your money will remain relatively safe and still be there if you need it in a hurry.

On the other hand, if you don’t anticipate needing the money any time soon, then investing is a good option. Successful investing often requires a long-term approach and patience because the market can fluctuate. Over time, however, it often yields positive results for many investors.

Or, you can do both. You can put some of your expendable income in a money market mutual fund or high yield savings account and then use some for investing.

2. Consider how much you can afford to invest. If after you’ve paid all your bills and set aside some cash in a savings account, you still have money left over, great. You’re in the perfect position to start saving. While choosing how much to invest all depends on your personal expenses, investing 10% off your income is a great place to start if you’re able.

That last bit is important, though. Not everyone is able to invest 10%, and that’s okay. When you’re just starting out, invest only how much and when you’re able to. What you shouldn’t do is miss important bill payments or slack off on traditional savings just to put more toward your investments.

Another investing no-no? Prioritizing your investments over paying off your debts. This is especially true when you look at interest rates. While the money you invest may yield a 7-8% return, the interest rates on debt are often much higher than that. If that is the case with the debt you’re carrying, you should prioritize paying off your loans before putting lots of your money in the stock market.

3. Choose the right platform for you. Given the rise in popularity in investing, there are lots of different online brokerages and platforms for individual investors to choose from. Some of the most reputable and popular are Marcus Invest, SOFI, Acorns and Robinhood. Here are a few questions to ask when deciding which is best for you:

  • Are there account minimums? Many of the online brokers available to individual investors who are new to investing don’t have any account minimums, so most people can easily get started with whatever amount of money they have saved.
  • What are the account fees? You’ll want to find out if there are any fees associated with having an account with the specific online broker you’re interested in. Additionally, find out if they charge you for making trades or new investments. Platforms like Charles Schwab, E-Trade and Robinhood all offer commission-free trading.
  • Do they offer fractional shares? Many of the brokerages are also now offering fractional shares, which are great if you don’t have enough money to buy a full share of a popular stock like Amazon or Alphabet.
  • What investment research is available to you as a member? Chances are you’ll have questions as you begin investing. Some online brokers offer investment research to their members, which can be helpful when you’re just getting started.
  • What else do they offer? Some brokerages offer other services like tax planning or access to financial advisors. Others offer different types of accounts like retirement that might be of interest.

4. Start with a diversified spread. Rather than trying to buy shares from specific companies that are buzzy right now, new investors should begin their journey with a more diversified spread. Focusing too much on individual companies often means you’ll need to have an in-depth knowledge of that company and its long-term strategy or plans. Most novice investors don’t have access to that kind of information, nor the time required to acquire it. Thus, it’s better to start by putting your money toward an S&P 500 Index Fund. “That’s going to give you a diversified portfolio of U.S. stocks at a very low cost, and that can be purchased through a mutual fund or through an exchange-traded fund (ETF),” Baker explains.

5. Know when to check in on your investments. If you’re following the more traditional investment strategy above, where you’re putting some savings into a diversified portfolio each month, you really don’t need to check your portfolio every day or even every week. Because this is a long-term investing strategy, checking your brokerage accounts monthly is more than sufficient.

6. Steer clear of common investing mistakes. When you’re finally ready to start investing, it can feel exciting, like you’re finally getting in on the action. But don’t get ahead of yourself. Here are three of the worst things you can do when you first start investing.

  • Don’t trade often. “Lots of trading activity is not the path to long-term investment success,” Baker says.
  • Don’t obsessively check your account. “If you’ve made long-term investments, there’s really no need to check your portfolio every day,” Baker reiterates.
  • Don’t get overly emotional. “Emotion is another enemy of investment success,” Baker says. “No one likes to see their portfolio decline, but stocks are inherently volatile, and it’s inevitable they will go down sometimes. People should keep their eye on their long-term goals,” he adds.

In conclusion, investing can be confusing if you don’t know where to start. Everyone’s circumstances are different, which means what’s right for you may not be right for someone else.

Take the time to evaluate your personal investing options and choose what works best for you. And research shows that investing is the best way to build long-term wealth and achieve your financial goals.

“Keep your eye on the [long term wealth building] goal, keep moving toward your target.” ~ T. Harv Eker, Secrets of the Millionaire Mind: Mastering the Inner Game of Wealth

References:

  1. https://www.intheknow.com/post/investing-tips/
  2. https://www.bankrate.com/investing/how-to-invest/

12 Timeless Rules of Investing

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Guidelines Every Investor Should Embrace, But Few Actually Do

An Investment U White Paper Report written by Dr. Steve Sjuggerud, Advisory Panelist, Investment U

In the the white paper report, Dr. Sjuggerud identified 12 classic investing rules that every investor can use throughout their lifetimes.

These guidelines are provided to help investors achieve their goals, sometimes in capitalizing on gains and sometimes in mitigating losses.

1. An attempt at making a quick buck often leads to losing much of that buck.

  • The people who suffer the worst losses are those who overreach.
  • If the investment sounds too good to be true, it is.
  • The best hot tip is “there is no such thing as a hot tip.”

2. Don’t let a small loss become large.

  • Don’t keep losing money just to “prove you are right.”
  • Never throw good money after bad (don’t buy more of a loser).
  • When all you’re left with is hope, get out.

3. Cut your losers; let your winners ride.

  • Avoid limited-upside, unlimited-downside investments.
  • Don’t fall in love with your investment; it won’t fall in love with you.

4. A rising tide raises all ships, and vice versa. So assess the tide, not the ships.

  • Fighting the prevailing “trend” is generally a recipe for disaster.
  • Stocks will fall more than you think and rise higher than you can imagine.
  • In the short run, values don’t matter. In the long run, valuations do matter.

5. When a stock hits a new high, it’s not time to sell something that is going right.

  • When a stock hits a new low, it’s not time to buy something that is going wrong.

6. Buy and hold doesn’t ALWAYS work.

  • If stocks don’t seem cheap, stand aside.

7. Bear markets begin in good times. Bull markets begin in bad times.

8. If you don’t understand the investment, don’t buy it.

  • Don’t be wooed. Either make an effort to understand it or say “no thanks.”
  • You can’t know everything, so don’t stray far from what you know.

9. Buy value, and sell hysteria.

  • Paying less than the underlying asset’s value is a proven successful investing strategy.
  • Buying overvalued stocks has proven to under perform the market.
  • Neglected sectors often offer good values.
  • The “popular” sectors are often overvalued.

10. Investing in what’s popular never ends up making you any money.

  • Avoid popular stocks, fad industries and new ventures.
  • Buy an investment when it has few friends.

11. When it’s time to act, don’t hesitate.

  • Once you’re in, be patient and don’t be rattled by fluctuations.
  • Stick with your plan… but when you make a mistake, don’t hesitate.
  • Learn more from your bad moves than your good ones.

12. Expert investors care about risk; novice investors shop for returns.

  • If you focus on the risks, the returns will eventually come for you.
  • If you focus on the returns, the risks will eventually come for you.

Good investing.

References:

  1. https://investmentu.com/timelessrules/

Magic Formula

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“Believe it can be done. When you believe something can be done, really believe, your mind will find the ways to do it. Believing a solution paves the way to solution.” – David J. Schwartz

In “The Little Book That Beats the Market”, Joel Greenblatt, Founder and Managing Partner at Gotham Capital (average annualized returns of 40% for over 20 years), sets out the basic principles for successful stock market investing.

In his book, Greenblatt provides a “magic formula” that makes buying good companies at bargain prices process driven. It takes a bunch of stocks (Russell 3000) and ranks them on quality; takes the same bunch and ranks them on value. Add the two ranks and buy the stocks with the highest summed ranks. Hold them for a year or preferably longer.

The formula is based on two very solid pillars of value investing: Invest in companies with high returns, and make sure they’re selling at a large discount (margin of safety).

For his quality factor, Greenblatt chose return on capital, defined as EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) divided by the sum of working capital and fixed assets. For his value factor, Greenblatt chose EBIT divided by enterprise value.

“If you just stick to buying good companies (ones that have a high return on capital) and to buying those companies only at bargain prices (at prices that give you a high earnings yield), you can end up systematically buying many of the good companies that crazy Mr. Market has decided to literally give away.”

“Choosing individual stocks without any idea of what you’re looking for is like running through a dynamite factory with a burning match. You may live, but you’re still an idiot.”

“In short, companies that achieve a high return on capital are likely to have a special advantage of some kind. That special advantage keeps competitors from destroying the ability to earn above-average profits.”

“Stock prices move around wildly over very short periods of time. This does not mean that the values of the underlying companies have changed very much during that same period. In effect, the stock market acts very much like a crazy guy named Mr. Market.”

“Although over the short term, Mr. Market may set stock prices based on emotion, over the long term, it is the value of the company that becomes most important to Mr. Market.”

“After more than 25 years of investing professionally and after 9 years of teaching at an Ivy League business school, I am convinced of at least two things: 1. If you really want to “beat the market,” most professionals and academics can’t help you, and 2. That leaves only one real alternative: You must do it yourself.”
― Joel Greenblatt, The Little Book That Beats the Market

“Over the short term, Mr. Market acts like a wildly emotional guy who can buy or sell stocks at depressed or inflated prices. Over the long run, it’s a completely different story: Mr. Market gets it right.”

“Although over the short term Mr. Market may price stocks based on emotion, over the long term Mr. Market prices stocks based on their value.”

Greenblatt’s three basic principles:

  1. Buy good companies;
  2. Buy them at bargain prices;
  3. Use ranking to pick stocks.

Financial commentator Gary Shilling likes to say, “The stock market can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent.”

T,hus, when looking for bargain prices, you need to look at a lot more things than earnings yield, and when looking for good businesses, you need to look at a lot more things than high return on capital.

You can’t judge a business as good or bad without looking at its stability, its growth prospects, and the quality of its earnings; and you can’t judge a business as a bargain without looking at a variety of valuation metrics.

References:

  1. https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/73414-the-little-book-that-beats-the-market
  2. https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/03/23/foolish-book-review-the-little-book-that-beats-the.aspx
  3. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4374333-how-market-beat-little-book-beats-market-stock-pickers-guide-to-joel-greenblatts-magic

What is Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

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Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is a performance ratio that aims to measure the percentage return that a company earns on invested capital.

The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) ratio shows how efficiently a company is using the investors’ funds to generate net income. Investors use the ROIC ratio to compute and to understand the value of a company. It represents for investors how well a company has put its capital to work in order to generate profitable returns on behalf of its shareholders and debt lenders.

Fundamentally, ROIC answers the question:

  • “How much in returns is the company earning for each dollar invested?”

Return on Invested Capital is calculated by taking into account the cost of the investment and the returns generated.

  • Returns are all the earnings acquired after taxes but before interest is paid.
  • The value of an investment is calculated by subtracting all current long-term liabilities, those due within the year, from the company’s assets.

The cost of investment can either be the total amount of assets a company requires to run its business or the amount of financing from creditors or shareholders. The return is then divided by the cost of investment.

Net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) is typically used in the numerator because it captures the recurring core operating profits and is an unlevered measure (i.e. unaffected by the capital structure).

Unlike net income, NOPAT is the operating profits post-taxes and thus represents what is available for all equity and debt providers.

  • Return on Invested Capital (ROIC): The numerator is net operating profit after tax (NOPAT), which measures the earnings of a company prior to financing costs.
  • Invested Capital: As for the denominator, the invested capital represents the sources of funding raised to grow the company and run the day-to-day operations.

Capital refers to debt and equity financing, which are the two common sources of funds for companies that are used to invest in cash flow generative assets and derive economic benefits.

A company can evaluate its growth by looking at its return on invested capital ratio. Any firm earning excess returns on investments totaling more than the cost of acquiring the capital is a value creator. Excess returns may be reinvested, thus securing future growth for the company. An investment whose returns are equal to or less than the cost of capital is a value destroyer. Generally speaking,

  • A company is considered to be a value creator if its ROIC is at least two percent more than the cost of capital;
  • A company is considered to be a value destroyer is if its ROIC is two percent less than its cost of capital.

There are some companies that run at zero returns, whose return percentage on the value of capital lies within the set estimation error, which in this case is 2%.

A higher return on invested capital can be considered an indication that a company is required to spend less to generate more profit.

  • Profitable Returns on Invested Capital (ROIC) → Positive Value Creation and Shareholder Returns

The higher the profit margins of the company, the higher the return on invested capital, as the company can convert more revenue (or NOPAT) into profits.

Companies that generate an ROIC above their cost of capital implies the management team can allocate capital efficiently and invest in profitable projects, which is a competitive advantage in itself.

When investors screen for potential investments, the minimum ROIC tends to be set between 10% and 15%, but this will be firm-specific and depend on the type of strategy employed.

ROIC is one method to determine whether or not a company has a defensible “economic moat”, which is the ability of a company to protect its profit margins and market share from new market entrants over the long run.

Warren Buffett

The overall objective of calculating ROIC is to better understand how efficiently a company has been utilizing its operating capital (i.e. deployment of capital).

Generally, the higher the return on invested capital (ROIC), the more likely the company is to achieve sustainable long-term value creation.

References:

  1. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/what-is-roic/
  2. https://www.wallstreetprep.com/knowledge/roic-return-on-invested-capital/

Don’t Fight the Fed

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“We continue to believe that the S&P will see a correction of at least 20% over the next one to two years as the Fed is more aggressive than expected to deal with inflation running higher than expected and easy money begins to decrease.” Dan Niles

“The markets are in a volatile and dangerous place as of now,” writes Dan Niles, founder and portfolio manager for the Satori Fund.

In his article entitled “Market Thoughts Following Q1”, Niles contends that investors heed the warning: “Don’t Fight the Fed”.

He states that “Investors are forgetting that it [Don’t Fight the Fed] works on the way down as well as the way up. The Federal Reserve (The Fed) expanded their balance sheet by $4.8 trillion since the start of the pandemic while the US government added ~$5.5 trillion in stimulus. Combined stimulus of roughly half of US GDP of $20.5 trillion is the major driver of why the prices of stocks (along with homes, cars, boats, crypto, art, NFTs, etc) all went up over the past two years during a global pandemic. Now, the Fed dot plot shows 10 rate hikes in less than two years and they will be cutting trillions off the balance sheet probably starting on May 4th along with a 50 bps rate hike.”

“The #1 concern for investors in 2022 should continue to be that the Fed is so far behind the curve on dealing with inflation that they will have to be much more aggressive than in prior tightening cycles despite high inflation & geopolitical risk.” Dan Niles

“We [Satori Fund] continue to believe that the S&P will see a correction of at least 20% over the next one to two years as the Fed is more aggressive than expected to deal with inflation running higher than expected and easy money begins to decrease. Since World War II,

  1. Every time Inflation (CPI) is over 5% a recession has occurred
  2. Every time oil prices have doubled relative to the prior 2-year average ($54 in this case) a recession has occurred
  3. 10 of the 13 prior recessions have been preceded by a tightening cycle by the Fed
  4. 10 of the last 13 recessions have been preceded by the 10-year yield going below the 2-year yield”

For retail investors, Niles recommends “cash until inflation, Fed tightening and economic slowing run their course over the next one to two years. He writes that “most of the time, cash is a terrible investment especially in a high inflationary environment, but it is better to lose 6-7% to inflation this year than 20%+ in a stock market drop. With the Fed being this far behind the curve on inflation, we will find out how much froth is in valuations as the Fed starts tightening as growth continues to slow.”

Satori Fund likes companies that

  1. Benefit from economic reopening (not pandemic beneficiaries);
  2. Are profitable with good cash flow;
  3. Have growth but at a reasonable price;
  4. Benefit from higher-than-average inflation;
  5. Benefit from multi-year secular tailwinds. 

They foresee investing tailwinds in:

  • Datacenter, office enterprise, and 5G infrastructure.
  • Reopening plays such as airlines, cruise lines, travel, rideshare, and dating services as people adjust to covid becoming endemic.
  • Banks which should benefit from higher interest rates.
  • Alternative energy as geopolitics and fallout from the Russia-Ukraine War drives investment in the space.

References:

  1. https://www.danniles.com/articles

Bonds Getting Clobbered

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“Bondholders are going to be in for some nasty surprises…because the losses are piling up.” CNBC’s Kelly Evans

A bond is a debt security, similar to an IOU. Borrowers issue bonds to raise money from investors willing to lend them money for a certain amount of time.

When you buy a bond, you are lending to the issuer, which may be a government, municipality, or corporation. In return, the issuer promises to pay you a specified rate of interest during the life of the bond and to repay the principal, also known as face value or par value of the bond, when it “matures,” or comes due after a set period of time.

Just as individuals get a mortgage to buy a house, or a car loan to buy a vehicle, or use credit cards, corporations use debt to build factories, buy inventory, and finance acquisitions. Governments use debt to build infrastructure and to pay obligations when tax revenues fluctuate. Loans help to keep the economy running efficiently.

Whenever the size of the loan is too large for a bank to handle, companies and governments go to the bond market to finance their debt. The purpose of the bond market is to enable large amounts of money to be borrowed.

Bonds can provide a means of preserving capital and earning a predictable return for investors. Bond investments provide steady streams of income from interest payments prior to maturity.

The bond market (also known as the debt market or credit market) is a financial market where players can buy and sell bonds in the secondary market or issue fresh debt in the primary market. Like the stock market, the bond secondary market is made up of investors trading with other investors. The original company that received the money and is responsible for paying back the money, is not involved in the day-to-day trading. The market value of bonds can fluctuate daily due to changes in inflation, interest rates, and fickleness of investors.

The United States accounts for around 39% of total bond market value. According to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA), the bond market (total debt outstanding) was worth $119 trillion globally in 2021, and $46 trillion in the United States (SIFMA). The worldwide bond market is almost three times larger than the global stock market.

“I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or as a 400 basball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” James Carville

The bond market is more important to the health of the U.S. and global economies than the stock market. And, you prefer for the bond market is not in the news, to be boring and functioning smoothly. Disruption in the bond market is what can get the economy in trouble.

As with any investment, bonds have risks which include:

  • Interest rate risk. Interest rate changes can affect a bond’s value. If bonds are sold before maturity, the bond may be worth more or less than the face value. Rising interest rates will make newly issued bonds more appealing to investors because the newer bonds will have a higher rate of interest than older ones. To sell an older bond with a lower interest rate, you might have to sell it at a discount.
  • Inflation risk. Inflation is a general upward movement in prices. Inflation reduces purchasing power, which is a risk for investors receiving a fixed rate of interest.

In aggregate, bond values are down significantly over the past three months–one of the worst quarters the securities have experienced since the 1980s, explains CNBC’s Kelly Evans. According to Natalliance, “government bonds are on pace for their worst year since 1949.”

Famed former Legg-Mason investor Bill Miller warned several years ago that “when people realize they can actually lose money in bonds, they panic”. Going into the inflationary 1970s, he said, “investors had done so well in bonds for so long they viewed them as essentially riskless, until it was too late.”
Investors have been warned for years about a bond crash that never panned out until recently. The chorus of financial pundits have said that the Federal Reserve’s massive quantitative easing and the federal government’s fiscal response to the financial crisis would ultimately cause inflation and crater bonds, it turns out they were right.

As a result, investors are piling out of bonds, which have seen outflows for ten straight weeks. Municipal bonds have seen historic outflows and are about to post their worst quarter since 1994, down more than 5%, according to Bloomberg. Investors have also been fleeing high-yield debt, especially as the Fed has turned increasingly hawkish this month.

You won’t find many financial professionals, other than fixed-income specialists, recommending big exposure to bonds right now. The outlook is just too uncertain.

“Bonds have nowhere to go but down since [interest] rates have nowhere to go but up.” Liz Young, SoFi Chief Investment Officer

Bonds are not expected to rally or perform better if growth slows, unless there is a meaningful dent in the outlook for inflation, and it would take a very deep and lengthy downturn to do so, as economists and financial pundits have warned.

Bonds have sold off and they haven’t served as downside protection within an investor’s diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds. Year-to-date, bonds have returned -8.7% YTD on 7-10-year Treasury bonds compared to a -6.0% YTD return in the S&P 500.

When bonds are in the red and cash is losing value because of inflation, investors turn to the stock market, at least tactically.

In this environment, “real assets” like real estate and commodities have done extremely well tend to do well in a tough investment environment for the long run (gold, metals, energy — along with globally diversified real estate).

As for stocks, Bill Smead, of Smead Capital Management, likes energy and housing market plays; noted investor Bill Miller likes energy, financials, housing stocks, travel-related names, and even some Chinese stocks (he’s also still bullish on mega-cap tech like Amazon and Meta).

The S&P 500 overall has been impressively resilient thus far, hanging in there with drop of less than 5% since the start of January–less than bonds, in other words. As bond losses deepen, don’t be surprised to see the “TINA” (There Is No Alternative) dynamic continue to bolster stocks.

However, there are several good reasons for purchasing bonds and including them in your portfolio:

  • Bonds are a generally safe investment, which is one of their advantages. Bond prices do not move nearly as much as stock prices.
  • Bonds provide a consistent income stream by paying you a defined sum of interest twice a year.
  • Bonds provide diversification to your portfolio, which is perhaps the most important benefit of investing in them. Stocks have outperformed bonds throughout time, but having a mix of both can lower your financial risk.

References:

  1. https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/investment-products/bonds-or-fixed-income-products/bonds
  2. https://www.themoneyfarm.org/investment/bonds/why-is-there-a-market-for-bonds/
  3. https://www.sofi.com/blog/liz-looks-stocks-vs-bonds/
  4. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/28/kelly-evans-its-getting-ugly-out-there-for-bonds.html
  5. https://archerbaycapital.com/bond-market-more-important-to-economy/

Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining market equity values.

Investing Involves Decision Making

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Investing involves decision-making. But not making those investing decisions can be a more costly move in itself.

Choosing to invest your money in the stock market is like picking your first tattoo. The stakes are high and all the available options can seem overwhelming to your senses. Thankfully, there is an an abundant amount of good financial services, resources and advice available to help you avoid making a mistake mistake and to get you started.

There is truly no time like the present to start investing. Because the sooner you start, the more time your money has to grow and the more potential you have to earn, because of the power of compound interest. This is when your money earns money on itself and grows exponentially.

But, growth isn’t always guaranteed. Investing means taking in a certain amount of risk since the market moves in cycles. Although investing comes with some risk, it doesn’t have to feel like a high-stakes gamble.

Rest assured, historically, stocks have bounced back from every downturn in history. And, then continued to climb. Investing consistently overtime can make it easier to ride out the market volatility, the ups and downs.

The first step is determining what you want your future to look like financially in retirement. Retirement is probably your most important and expensive goal, and a good place to start.

It’s important to build a portfolio based on your time horizon, how you want to invest, how comfortable you’re with risk and what you plan to use your investment earnings are for. But, you must get started.

Ready, set, go(als).

Investing could help you owe the IRS less during tax time. For example, you have until the tax filing deadline each year to open and fund an IRA, which could help you claim an extra deduction.

Harvesting losses in your brokerage account could help you reduce your capital gains taxes for the year.

If you want more control over your investment portfolio, self-directed investing is the way to go. Self-directed investing is for people at all experience levels.

However, if you prefer a hands-off approach, financial advisors or automated robo-advisors can help you capture your financial goals and tailor an investment portfolio to achieve your financial goals, complete with regular rebalancing.

But, before you jump headfirst into investing your money, it’s wise to assess your present financial status first (your cash flow and net worth) and make sure you’ve got a solid savings foundation to build on.

Finding a balance between saving your money and building wealth through investing for your future is not rocket science. It is simple to build savings and help take the fear and uncertainty out of investing.

References:

  1. https://taskandpurpose.com/from-our-partners/set-your-future-up-for-success-save-and-invest/
  2. https://www.brighthousefinancial.com/education/retirement-planning/covering-everyday-expenses-in-retirement/

Staying Invested Matters

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Investors are more likely to reach their long-term goals if they remain invested and avoid short-term decisions that may take them off course.

Staying the course during market volatility is often difficult for many investors. Some choose to move to cash investments, while others try to time the market. Regrettably, these investors are often buying high and selling low—and miss the rallies that follow the challenging periods.

Yet, staying invested through market ups and downs can help you stay on track to reach your investment goals.

Once you’ve determined how much you want to invest, setting up automatic transfers to your investment account or periodic investments can help you stay on track.

For example, investors often make suboptimal investing decisions when emotions take over, tending to buy out of excitement when the market is going up and sell out of fear when the market is falling. Markets do ultimately normalize, and when they do, those who stay invested may benefit more than those who don’t.  Consider this:

  • By missing some of the market’s best days, investors can lose out on critical opportunities to grow their portfolio. Market timing can have devastating results.
  • Seven of the best 10 days occurred within two weeks of the 10 worst days.
  • The second worst day for the markets during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, March 12, 2020, was immediately followed by the second best day of the year.

Trying to time the bottom is never considered a sound strategy for long-term investing.

Staying invested during periods of heighten market volatility is an important strategy as, historically, six of the ten best days in the market occur within two weeks of the ten worst days; those who miss the best days miss out on performance.

Thus, the decision to stay invested during market turmoil is often better than timing
when to sell and buy.

References:

  1. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/principles-for-investing/
  2. https://www.pimco.com/en-us/resources/education/the-benefits-of-staying-invested/

9 Good Financial and Wealth Building Habits

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Developing good financial habits is pivotal to maintaining a healthy financial life. It can be the most important tool you have to reach your goal of eliminating personal debt. Regardless of any bad money habits you’ve had in the past, there’s always time to make changes for the future.

When adjusting your approach, don’t hesitate to learn from others. This could be the difference between success and continuing down the same old path.

Below are nine good financial habits.

1. Create a budget.

The median household income in the United States in 2019 was $68,703. Whether you earn more or less than this, a budget can help keep your finances on track.

When you know how much you earn, it’s much easier to determine how much you can comfortably spend each month.

2. Avoid or consolidate higher-interest credit card and personal debt.

Unexpected expenses can come up and we don’t always have the cash to pay for them. So we might swipe a credit card or take out a loan.

The good news is you may be able to consolidate your higher-interest debt with a fixed rate personal loan, saving time and interest costs.

If you’re paying a high interest rate on debt, and you had the opportunity to pay a lower rate that might lessen your monthly payment, why wouldn’t you?

3. Understand your financial circumstances.

You need to understand every aspect of your financial situation. From how much you earn to how you’re spending your money, every last detail is important.

With an understanding of your finances, you’ll always know what makes the most sense for you and your money.

4. Learn from past mistakes and failures.

Learning from you past mistakes is one of the most critical money habits you can form. Even the most successful people make financial mistakes from time to time. For example, maybe you buried yourself in store card debt. Or maybe you “bit off more than you could chew” with a car loan.

It’s okay to make financial mistakes, as long as you learn from them and use what you learn to manage your debt.

5. Set goals and create a plan .

Have you set both short- and long-term financial goals? Are you tracking your progress, month in and month out?

Taking this one step further, you can do more than think about goals in your head. See where putting your goals to paper takes you. You could get a new sense of clarity and focus with everything written out in front of you.

According to a research study completed by Gail Matthews at Dominican University, people who write down their goals accomplish “significantly more.”

6. Ask questions.

Although you know your financial situation better than anyone else, there are times when it makes sense to ask questions.

For example, a CPA can provide guidance related to your tax situation. With more than 658,000 of these professionals in the United States alone, there are plenty of options for advisement.

7. Save for retirement.

Many Americans carry debt and find it difficult to save money. These challenges can make it hard to pay attention to retirement savings. In fact, a recent Employee Benefit Research Institute survey found a majority of people saying debt may be a hindrance to their retirement plans.

You won’t be alone if you opt against saving for retirement, but if comfortable retirement is one of your goals, look towards the future. Putting a bit of money away for retirement is a good financial habit; consolidating higher-interest debt so that you save money on interest may be one way to find more savings opportunities.

8. Automate your savings.

There are many reasons why people may not save as much money as they should. For example, they may touch every bit of money they earn, meaning it never ends up in the right place.

Protect against this by automating savings. Think about it like this: you can’t spend money that you don’t see or touch.

9. Pay down debt.

Taking on debt can be a successful strategy as long as you’re comfortable with two things:

  • The monthly payment
  • Your ability (and willingness) to pay down the debt.

The longer you let debt linger the more you’ll pay in interest. Furthermore, debt can hold you back from reaching other goals, such as saving for retirement.

If you implement these nine good financial habits, you may end up feeling better about your current situation and what the future will bring.

Creating a wealth plan

A well thought out wealth plan rests on three essential pillars:

  • Save
  • Invest
  • Repeat

These are the core principles of every wealth plan. Disregarding even one will render a wealth plan useless. An important aspect to consider is that a wealth plan should be tailored to each individual’s needs and goals. So pay attention, and make sure that these simple steps are followed in order to create a wealth plan that allows individuals to achieve their dreams of building wealth and financial freedom.

A wealth plan is a resource to help you achieve your financial goals. As it allows you to plan, and use it as a guide throughout your journey. However, having a wealth plan is not a guarantee of anything.

Achieving wealth is like building a house. Thus, having the best architectural design will not ensure that the final product will be outstanding. This is why execution is the differentiating factor in achieving wealth. There are certainly several advantages to having a well-thought-out plan to help you in this process, such as:

  • Clear vision over goals
  • Easily control expenses and estimate savings
  • Automate investments
  • Define a strategy to achieve wealth
  • Adapt your strategy over time

In essence, a wealth plan acts as a roadmap to financial freedom. The main difference is a map usually has a clear path towards a destination. A wealth plan, on the other hand, is filled with unknowns and obstacles that may lay ahead.

In essence, a wealth plan acts as a roadmap to financial freedom.

References:

  1. https://www.discover.com/personal-loans/resources/consolidate-debt/good-financial-habits/
  2. https://goodmenproject.com/featured-content/how-to-create-a-wealth-plan-get-started-now/