Tag Archives: Long-Term Investing

Growing Your Money

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When investing your money in the stock market, doing your research and investing in what you know are crucial elements of successful investing. You don’t have to be a financial expert to start buying stocks, but the more you know going in, the more likely your investing journey will be successful.

It’s critical to understand that stocks represent legal ownership in a company; you become a part-owner of the company when you purchase shares.

People ultimately invest in stocks with one end-goal in mind: to grow their money and build wealth.

But it’s important to note that growing your money and building wealth are not guaranteed. Investing in individual stocks carries much more risk than buying bonds or putting your money in index funds.

As you begin to research stocks, first know how much risk you can take, or your risk tolerance, and your time horizon.

Financial experts typically recommend that you only invest money that you can afford to lose and, since investment returns are typically maximized over the long term, only invest money that you won’t need in the short term (less than three to five years).

Stock’s Value vs. Price

Buying stocks equates to owning companies which lets you be a part of something that’s normally very exclusive. It allows you to invest in pieces of well-known companies, such as Amazon, Google or Apple.

A company’s stock price has nothing to do with its value, because the share price means nothing on its own.

The price of a stock will go down when there are more sellers than buyers. The price will go up when there are more buyers than sellers.

A company’s performance doesn’t directly influence its stock price. Investors’ reactions to the performance decide how a stock price fluctuates.

The relationship of price-to-earnings and return on equity is what determines if a stock is overvalued or undervalued. Essentially, You should make no assumptions based on price alone.

Knowing when to sell is just as important as buying stocks. Most retail investors buy when the stock market is rising and sell when it’s falling, but smart investors follow a strategy based on their financial plan and requirements.

Benjamin Graham is known as the father of value investing, and he’s preached that the real money in investing will have to be made not by buying and selling, but from owning and holding securities, receiving interest and dividends, and benefiting from the stock’s long-term increase in intrinsic value through compounding.

Learning how to invest in stocks might take time, but you’ll be on your way to growing your money and building your wealth when you do so. But, keep your risk tolerance, time horizon and financial goals in mind,

References:

  1. https://www.thebalance.com/the-complete-beginner-s-guide-to-investing-in-stock-358114

Patience is the Key to 10X Investing

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“The stock market is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient.”  Warren Buffett

Patience and successful investing are necessary natural partners. Investing is a long-term prospect, the benefits of which typically come after many years. Patience, too, is a behavior where the benefits are mostly long-term. To be patient is to endure some short-term sacrifice or difficulty for a future reward. Patience is an important investment skill which we need to develop more fully and learning it could help you reach your financial goals.

Patience involves staying calm in situations where you lack control. Being a patient investor might not be easy, but there are tools to help you overcome impatience. Here are a few strategies you can use to cultivate patience and clarity of thought in your investing decisions.

  • Have a plan and think long term. Set long-term financial goals and keep them front of mind during volatile times. A written financial plan is a great idea. Long-term thinking helps you mentally separate your investing journey from your long-term financial destination. Keeping a long-term perspective will give you the psychological fortitude you need to grow your portfolio over the long term.
  • Understand that market volatility is normal. Market volatility is a normal part of life. It might still be unpleasant in the moment, but recognizing that you’ll encounter volatile markets will help you mentally prepare for corrections or other downturns.
  • Look for fear or fundamentals. Consider whether a recent stock decline reflects investor fear or actual negative fundamentals. If markets are driven more by fear, you may not need to worry too much about it: Fear-based corrections often turn around quickly. Even if fundamentals have declined, markets may be pricing in a future far worse than reality. In either situation, be patient and stick to your investment strategy.
  • Remember, time is on your side. Take solace in the long history of capital markets. Corrections are temporary and usually brief, and even bear markets eventually end. Historically, markets go up far more often and by a much greater margin than they go down. Owning stocks for the long term is one of the best ways to profit from economic progress, innovation and compound growth.

Time and patience are two of the most potent factors in investing because it brings the magic of something Albert Einstein once called the 8th wonder of the world- Compounding. It’s not easy, but hopefully these practices can help you focus on the long term and take comfort in stocks’ exceptional performance history.

Its difficult to be patient

Your brain makes it hard to be patient. Human beings were designed to react to threats, either real or perceived. Stressful situations trigger a physiological response in people. This is called the “fight-or-flight” response — either attack or run away, whatever helps alleviate the threat.

The problem is, your mind doesn’t recognize the difference between true physical danger and psychological triggers, like a market crash. Being patient is difficult because it means overcoming these natural instincts. Turbulent financial markets can trigger the response causing real-world impacts you’ll need patience to overcome.

During pandemic-driven bear market, your brain perceives a threat to your financial well-being. Even though stock market volatility isn’t a physical threat, the fight-or-flight response kicks in, emotion takes over, and your brain starts telling you to do something. Your investment portfolio is perceived as being harmed and your metabolically influenced to take action.

With investing, action too often translates into selling something because selling feels like you’re shielding your portfolio from further harm. But selling at the wrong time — like in the middle of a major downturn — is one of the biggest investment mistakes you can make.

If you can find a way to invest inexpensively in the market and stay in the market, you can start to build your net worth. Success in investing requires patience.

“In the end, how your investments behave is much less important than how you behave.” Benjamin Graham

You need patience when what you are invested in is performing poorly—and you need it when what you don’t own is performing well.

one of the most valuable traits an investor can have is patience. If you are a patient investor and decide on great businesses, there is virtually no scenario where you will not make money.

Investing your money in great companies over time will grow into a fortune. Switching in and out of investments cost investors significant returns over time.

“Waiting helps you as an investor and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait. If you didn’t get the deferred-gratification gene, you’ve got to work very hard to overcome that.”  Charlie Munger

When it comes to investing, staying invested is quite often the most prudent and smartest approach for long-term investors. While there will always be market volatility and corrections, the key to successful investing is to stay focused on your goals.

References:

  1. https://www.entrepreneur.com/video/342261
  2. https://www.etmoney.com/blog/time-and-patience-two-key-virtues-to-become-successful-in-investing/
  3. https://www.thestreet.com/thestreet-fisher-investments-investor-opportunity/patience-the-most-underused-investing-skill

Believe in the Power of Compounding

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“Compounding is the eighth wonder of the world.” Albert Einstein

It is said that Albert Einstein once noted that the most powerful force in the universe is the principle of compounding. In simple terms, compound interest means that you begin to earn interest on the interest you receive, which multiplies your money at an accelerating rate. This is one significant reason for the success of many top investors.

Believe in the power of compounding

The key to successful investing is patience to search and wait for great companies that are selling for half or less than what they were worth (intrinsic value), and to hold the investment for the forever. The task is to try to buy a dollar of value for a fifty cents price, and to hold the investment for the long term.

  • Compound interest is the interest you earn on interest.
  • Compounding allows exponential growth for your principal.
  • Compounding interest can be good or bad depending on whether you are a saver or a borrower.
  • Think of stocks as a small piece of a business
  • Think of Investment fluctuations, volatility, are a benefit to a patient investor, rather than a curse.
  • Focus your attention on businesses where you think you understand the competitive advantages
  • The more people respond to short term events allow patient and value investors to make a lot of money.
  • Buy stocks when things are cheap. It’s important to control your emotions.

The key is that if you spend less than you earn, you put something away, and that little something can become more and more and eventually what you want to do is you want to be your own boss.” Mohnish Prbrai

Four important factors that determine how your money will compound:

  1. The profit you earn on your investment.
  2. The length of time you can leave your money to compound. The longer your money remains uninterrupted, the bigger your fortune can grow.
  3. The tax rate and the timing of the tax you have to pay to the government. You will earn far more money if you do not have to pay taxes at all or if the taxes are deferred.
  4. The risk you are willing to take with your money. Risk will determine the return potential, and ultimately determine whether compounding is a realistic expectation.

Rule of 72

The Rule of 72 is a great way to estimate how your investment will grow over time. If you know the interest rate, the Rule of 72 can tell you approximately how long it will take for your investment to double in value. Simply divide the number 72 by your investment’s expected rate of return (interest rate).

“The first rule of compounding: Never interrupt it unnecessarily. The elementary mathematics of compound interest is one of the most important models there is on earth.” Warren Buffett

The power of compounding is truly visible with billionaire investor Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha. He first became a billionaire at the age of 56 in 1986. Today, his net worth is over $100 billion at the age of 90-plus. And that’s after he donated tens of billions of stock to charity. His wealth is due to compounding, over 99% of the billionaire’s net worth was built after the age of 56.

When you understand the time value of money, you’ll see that compounding and patience are the ingredients for wealth. Compounding is the first step towards long-term wealth creation.

References:

  1. https://www.thebalance.com/the-power-of-compound-interest-358054
  2. https://www.valuewalk.com/2020/07/power-compounding-getting-rich/

Power of Compound Interest

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It is said that Albert Einstein once commented that “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.”

The Power of Compound Interest shows that you can put your money to work and watch it grow. The power of compounding works by growing your wealth exponentially. It adds the profit earned back to the principal amount and then reinvests the entire sum to accelerate the profit earning process.

When you earn interest on savings and returns on investments, that interest (or returns) then earns interest (or returns) on itself and this amount is compounded monthly. The higher the interest rates, the faster and the more your money grows!

The sooner you start to save, the greater the benefit of compound interest. This is one reason for the success of many investors. Anyone can take advantage of the benefits of compounding through starting a disciplined savings and investing program.

Yet, compounding interest can be good or bad depending on whether you are a saver or a borrower, respectively.

Three factors will influence the rate at which your money compounds. These factors are:

  1. The interest rate or rate of return that you make on your investment.
  2. Time left to grow or the age you start investing. The more time you give your money to build upon itself, the more it compounds.
  3. The tax rate and when you pay taxes on your interest. You will end up with more accumulated wealth if you don’t have to pay taxes, or defer paying taxes until the end of the compounding period rather than at the end of each tax year. This is why tax-deferred accounts are so important.

Finally, it’s important to resist the temptation of seeking higher interest rates or returns, because higher interest rates and returns always bring higher risk. Unless you know what you’re doing, no matter how successful you are along the way, you always want to avoid the possibility of losing money.

Benjamin Graham, known as the father of value investing, was aware of the risk of ‘chasing yield or return’ when he said that “more money has been lost reaching for a little extra return or yield than has been lost to speculating.”

References:

  1. https://www.primerica.com/public/power-compound-interest.html
  2. https://www.thebalance.com/the-power-of-compound-interest-358054

Financial Metrics for Evaluating a Stock

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“If you don’t study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.” Peter Lynch

Anyone can be successful investing in the stock market. But, it does take thorough research, patience, discipline and resilience. And, it’s important to appreciate that “Behind every stock, there is a company. Find out what it’s doing”, says Peter Lynch, who managed the Fidelity Magellan Fund from 1977 to 1990 and achieved an impressive return which reportedly averaged over 20% per year.

With a long-term view to investing, Lynch would patiently wait for the company to become recognized by Wall Street for its growth, which subsequently unleashed an explosive rise in its stock price as smart money and institutional investors rush to buy stock.

In his book “One Up On Wall Street”, he reveals his principles and metrics for successful investing. Here are 11 financial metrics investors can utilize to evaluate a company’s value:

  1. Market Cap – Shows the current size and scale of the company. “If a picture is worth a thousand words, in business, so is a number.” Peter Lynch
  2. Strong Balance Sheet (Cash on Hand / Long Term Debt to Equity) – Shows how financially sound a business has become and its capacity to withstand an economic downturn. Determine if the company’s cash has been increasing and long term debt has been decreasing?
  3. Sales and Earnings Growth Rates – Shows if the business model works & current growth rate
  4. Free Cash Flow – Shows if company generating or burning through cash
  5. Returns on Capital (ROE / ROIC / ROA)- shows capital efficiency of business
  6. Margins (Gross Profit Margin / Operating Margin / Profit Margin / Net Income) – Shows current profit profile of products, spending rates, & potential for operating leverage
  7. Total Addressable Market – What is market size and long term growth potential for the company.
  8. Long Term (5+ years) Stock Performance vs. market – has the stock created or destroyed value for shareholders. “In the long run, it’s not just how much money you make that will determine your future prosperity. It’s how much of that money you put to work by saving it and investing it.” Petere Lynch
  9. Current Valuation (Price to Sales / Price to Earnings / Price to Book / Price to FCF) – How expensive or inexpensive is the stock price.or is the company reasonably priced. “If you can follow only one bit of data, follow the earnings (assuming the company in question has earnings). I subscribe to the crusty notion that sooner or later earnings make or break an investment in equities. What the stock price does today, tomorrow, or next week is only a distraction.” Peter Lynch
  10. Mission and Vision Statement – Understand why the company exist.  What is it doing. “Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.” Peter Lynch
  11. Insider Ownership – Do insiders have skin in the game. SEC Filings. Information available on proxy statement.

Additionally, it is important to figure out:

  1. What is changing
  2. What is not changing
  3. Is there an underappreciation for either. “Your investor’s edge is not something you get from Wall Street experts. It’s something you already have. You can outperform the experts if you use your edge by investing in companies or industries you already understand.” Peter Lynch

Do that well, move on #3, you’re the best investor in the world.

As an investor, unless you understand the underlying business of a company, you will not be able to hold its stock when the price is falling. You could end up selling a great company out of fear – even though its price will recover in the future and give you great returns in the years to come. The ability to hold a good company even when its stock price is falling or undergoing a time correction – will play a crucial role in you becoming a successful investor.

In the long run, the stock price will go up only if the business of the company does well.

In Peter Lynch’s own words “I think you have to learn that there’s a company behind every stock, and that there’s only one real reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies”

If you like a stock, buy small quantity of shares. Study the company in more detail. Buy more shares if you like its business. As your understanding of the business increases, your conviction (confidence) will also increase, this will allow you to give higher allocation in your portfolio.

Categories of Stocks in the Stock Market

Peter Lynch divided different stocks into six categories

Slow Growers – Slow growers are those stocks that have a slow growth rate i.e. a low upward slope of earnings and revenue growth.These slow growers can be characterized by the size and generosity of their dividend. According to Peter Lynch, the only reason to buy these stocks are dividends.

The Stalwarts – The Stalwarts have an average growth rate as that of industry and are usually mid to large companies. They have an earnings growth between the 8-12 percent CAGR range. According to Peter Lynch, investors can get an adequate return from these stocks if they hold these stocks for a long time.

The Fast Growers – The fast growers are generally aggressive companies and they grow at an impressive rate of 15-25% per year. They are fast-growth stocks and grow at a comparatively faster rate compared to the industry average and competitors. However, Peter Lynch advises that one should be open-eyed when they own a fast grower. There is a great likelihood for the fast growers to get hammered if they run out of steam or if their growth is not sustainable.

The Cyclicals – Cyclical are stocks that grow at a very fast pace during their favorable economic cycle. The cyclical companies tend to flourish when coming out of a recession into a vigorous economy. Peter Lynch advises investors to own the cyclical only on the right part of the cycle i.e. when they are expanding. If bought at the wrong phase, it may even take them years before they perform. Timing is everything while investing in cyclical stocks.

The Turnarounds – The turnarounds are characterized as potential fatalities that have been badly hammered by the market for one or more of a variety of reasons but can make up the lost ground under the correct circumstances. Holding turnarounds can be very profitable if the management is able to turn the company as these stocks can be bought at a very low valuation by the investors. However, if the management fails to bring back the company on track, it can be very troublesome for the investors.

Asset Plays – Asset Plays are those stocks whose assets are overlooked by the market and are undervalued. These assets may be properties, equipment, or other real assets that the company is holding but which is not valued by the investors when there has been a general market downturn. The real value may be worth more than the market capitalization of the company. Peter Lynch suggests owning a few of these stocks in your portfolio as they are most likely to add a lot of value to your portfolio. However, the biggest significant factor while picking these stocks is to carefully estimate the right worth of the assets. If you are able to do it, you can pick valuable gems.

“Average investors can become experts in their own field and can pick winning stocks as effectively as Wall Street professionals by doing just a little research.” Peter Lynch

Infinity income – When your income from investments is higher than your expenses, you might be able to live off those returns for 10 years, 30 years, 50 years… or forever!

References:

  1. https://stockinvestingtoday.blog/the-investing-style-of-peter-lynch?
  2. https://www.thebalance.com/peter-lynch-s-secret-formula-for-valuing-a-stock-s-growth-3973486
  3. https://goldenfs.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/summary-One-Up-On-Wall-Street-Peter-Lynch-2-scaled.jpg

Small-Cap Stocks

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“Growth is greatest in the early stages of a company’s development.” Cabot Wealth

There is a common perception among investors that over the long term, small-cap stocks outperform large-cap stocks. In exchange for more risk, you get more reward.

As it turns out, this is mostly untrue, according to Seeking Alpha. The best small-cap stocks offer more explosive upside potential, but as a group they don’t really outperform large-cap stocks, subject to a few caveats.

The best possible investing scenario is to identify a top small-cap stock that will go on to become a large-cap stock over the coming years, and go up in value by 10x or 100x.

Unfortunately, for every massive winner that does that, there are multiple losers. Both Russell and Wilshire data show that small-cap stocks don’t really outperform as a group. They’re not bad, but over four decades they don’t really stand out either. Mid-cap stocks are a potential sweet spot, that investors can benefit from either by directly investing mid-cap fund or investing into an equal weight large-cap fund which tends to have a lot of overlap with the mid-cap space.

A 2017 study by Hendrik Bessembinder that analyzed virtually all U.S. public stocks over the past 90 years found that small-cap stocks have much higher performance variance. A smaller percentage of small-cap stocks provide positive long-term returns compared to the percentage of large-cap stocks that provide positive long-term returns. As a consequence, small stocks more frequently deliver returns that fail to match benchmarks.

Conversely, while the absolute best-performing small caps outperform the best-performing large caps over a given period, small caps as a group also have much higher rates of catastrophic loss.

Anytime you buy shares of a small, lessor-known company, there are a plethora of unknowns. Thus, it’s impossible to take the risk completely out of small-cap investing. But there are ways to minimize those risks without sacrificing potential profits.

The defining characteristics of small-cap stocks are that many are young, attractive investments and tend to be highly volatile. This volatility can be absolutely maddening for those who are new to small-cap investing (and even to those who aren’t).

Don’t let this volatility drive you away from small-cap stocks if you’re inclined to invest in them. Volatility comes and goes, and over the long-term small caps tend to beat the market.

FIVE SIMPLE RULES FOR SUCCESS WITH SMALL-CAP STOCKS

It’s important to set up a clearly established set of rules ahead of time, and stick to them. The simple rules that can increase your odds of success, especially during uncertain markets, are:

Rule #1: Commit To The Long Term: One of the more frequently quoted Warren Buffett quips is, “If you aren’t thinking about owning a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it for 10 minutes.”

You don’t need to own every small-cap stock you buy for the next decade. But you do need to look out at least a year or two if you expect to have significant success.

There are select examples of investors making money trading in and out of small caps in the short term. But very few can do it week in and week out, year after year. All the studies say the same thing; your odds of making money go up the longer you stick with small-cap stocks.

A study from Ibbotson, a financial research firm owned by Morningstar, found that investors have a 70% chance of making money with small-cap stocks if they stay invested for one year. That probability goes up to 82% after three years, 86% after five years and 98% after 10 years. The percentages aren’t all that different for large caps.

Rule #2: Dollar Cost Average Your Cost Basis: Small-cap stocks can be irrational in the short term. That’s why you never do anything too drastic. Don’t go all in on an individual stock on a big pullback, or a big breakout. Instead, average into a position by buying shares at different prices and on different days. The strategy helps to reduce the risk of buying a full position in a stock at an unlucky time, which is bound to happen occasionally.

The period over which you average in should be dictated by your holding time horizon. If you’re investing for just a year or two, you’ll probably average in over a week or two, maybe a month. If you’re in it for three or more years, you can average in over a year, or more.

Rule #3: Take Partial Profits: If averaging in makes sense, then averaging out should too. Consider selling a quarter or a half position on the way up, and especially if a gain has surpassed 100%. This doesn’t have to mean giving up on the stock. It’s simply a risk-mitigation strategy. The original capital can be allocated to a lower-risk investment.

Also, it’s fine to average back into a position even if you sold shares at an earlier date. Sometimes, especially during corrections, investors are forced to dump some shares to protect their gains. Months later, the stock might be doing just fine. If the growth story is intact and the market is trending up there’s no reason you can’t build up your position again.

Rule #4: Use a Stop Loss: For small cap stocks, many advisors advocate a 15% to 30% stop loss for large caps. The reason is that you often see quality small caps drop 20% or so during market corrections. Often, these are the times to average down if and when the stock has stabilized, assuming the stock’s growth story is intact,.

That said, it can also be a time to sell a partial, or full, position to protect gains, or help avoid catastrophic losses. How close you are to your desired position size will usually determine if you’re averaging in, or out. The underlying reason for using stop losses is that the bigger the loss, the bigger the return you need to get back to break even (see table below). Don’t go below the red line!

Rule #5: If You’re Not Sure What To Do, Do Nothing: Just because the market is open doesn’t mean you need to participate in it. If you’ve had a streak of losses, or things just don’t feel right, take a break. Focus your attention on a few stocks you’d like to own eventually and read up on those so you’re ready to go when the stock’s margin of safety improves, and your confidence returns.

As Warren Buffett said, “I’ve had periods in my life when I’ve had a bundle of ideas come along, and I’ve had long dry spells. If I get an idea next week, I’ll do something. If not, I won’t do a damn thing.”

Investing in small-cap stocks is a good way to earn huge returns. Consequently, there are two major ways to outperform the market.

  • You can take advantage of short-term price dislocation versus a company’s intrinsic value, or
  • Use long-term compounding to achieve market outperformance.

References:

  1. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4287533-small-cap-performance-gap-doesnt-exist-why
  2. https://cabotwealth.com/category/daily/small-cap-stocks
  3. https://cabotwealth.com/daily/small-cap-stocks/small-cap-stock-warren-buffett/

The Biggest Mistakes Individual Investors Make

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“The public’s careful when they buy a house, when they buy a refrigerator, when they buy a car. They’ll work hours to save a hundred dollars on a roundtrip air ticket. They’ll put $5,000 or $10,000 on some zany idea they heard on the bus. That’s gambling. That’s not investing. That’s not research. That’s just total speculation.” Peter Lynch

For the 13 years, Peter Lynch ran Fidelity’s Magellan® Fund (1977–1990). During his tenure, he earned a reputation as a top performer, increasing assets under management from $18 million to $14 billion. He beat the S&P 500 in all but two of those years. He averaged annual returns of 29% which means that $1 grew to more than $27.

Additionally, Lynch has authored several top-selling books on investing, including One Up on Wall Street and Beating the Street. He has a plain-spoken manner and offers wisdom on investing that can help you become a better investor.

To become a successful investor, you really need to “have faith that 10 years, 20 years, 30 years from now common stocks are the place to be”, according to Lynch. “If you believe in that, you should have some money in equity funds.”

Yet, “there will still be declines”, Lynch says. “It might be tomorrow. It might be a year from now. Who knows when it’s going to happen? The question is: Are you ready—do you have the stomach for this?”

Long term, the stock market has been a very good place for investors to employ their money and capital. But whether the market will be 30% higher or lower in 2 years from now…nobody knows. “But more people have lost money waiting for corrections and anticipating corrections than in the actual corrections”, according to Lynch. “I mean, trying to predict market highs and lows is not productive.”

“In the stock market, the most important organ is the stomach. It’s not the brain.” Peter Lynch

Theoretically, in Lynch’s opinion, the individual investor has an edge versus the professional in finding winning companies (“10-baggers”) that will go up 4- or 10- or 20-fold. They have the opportunity to see breakthroughs, company’s fundamentals get better, and analyze companies way ahead of most people. That’s an edge and you need an edge on something to find the hidden gems.

“The problem with most individual investors is people have so many biases. They won’t look at a railroad, an oil company, a steel company. They’re only going to look at companies growing 40% a year. They won’t look at turnarounds. Or companies with unions.” Thus, individual investors miss great opportunities in overlooked industries or unjustly beaten down companies to chase hot growth stocks.

“But my system for over 30 years has been this: When stocks are attractive, you buy them. Sure, they can go lower. I’ve bought stocks at $12 that went to $2, but then they later went to $30.” Peter Lynch

“You have to really be agnostic” to pick winners and to invest in a company poised for a rebound, according to Lynch.

“Stocks aren’t lottery tickets. Behind every stock is a company. If the company does well, over time the stocks do well.” Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch’s eight simple investing principles for long term investors are:

  1. Know what you own – Few individual investors actually do their research. And, almost every investor is guilty of jumping into a stock they know very little about.
  2. It’s futile to predict the economy and interest rates (so don’t waste time trying) – The U.S. economy is an extraordinarily complex system. Trying to time the market is futile. Set up a financial plan that allocates your assets based on your risk tolerance, so that you can sleep at night.
  3. You have plenty of time to identify and recognize exceptional companies – You don’t need to immediately jump into the hot stock. There’s plenty of time to do your research first.
  4. Avoid long shots – Lynch states that he was 0-for-25 in investing in companies that had no revenue but a great story. Make sure the risk-reward trade-off on an unproven company is worth it.
  5. Good management is very important; good businesses matter more – “Go for a business that any idiot can run – because sooner or later, any idiot is probably going to run it.”
  6. Be flexible and humble, and learn from mistakes – “In this business, if you’re good, you’re right six times out of 10. You’re never going to be right nine times out of 10.” You’re going to be wrong. Diversification and the ability to honestly analyze your mistakes are your best tools to minimize the damage.
  7. Before you make a purchase, you should be able to explain why you’re buying – You should be able to explain your thesis in three sentences or less. And in terms an 11-year-old could understand. Once this simply stated thesis starts breaking down, it’s time to sell.
  8. There’s always something to worry about. – There are plenty of world events for investors to fear, but past investors have survived a Great Depression, 911 terrorist attack, two world wars, an oil crisis, 2007 financial crisis, and double-digit inflation. Always remember, if your worst fears come true, there’ll be a heck of a lot more to worry about than some stock market losses.

Finally, in the words of Peter Lynch…”You can lose money in the short term, but you need the long term to make money.”

References:

  1. https://investinganswers.com/articles/51-peter-lynch-quotes-empower-your-investing
  2. https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/investing-ideas/peter-lynch-investment-strategy
  3. https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/05/21/how-peter-lynch-destroyed-the-market.aspx
  4. https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/investing-ideas/peter-lynch-investment-strategy

The Psychology Behind Your Worst Investment Decisions | Kiplinger Magazine

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“When it comes to investing, we have met the enemy, and it’s us.” Kiplinger Magazine

Excited by profit and terrified of loss, we let our emotions and minds trick us into making terrible investing decisions, writes Katherine Reynolds Lewis of Kiplinger Magazine.

Most individual investors allow their emotions to dictate their investment decisions. Effectively, there are two types of emotional reactions the average investor can experience:

Fear of Missing Out (FOMO). These investors will chase stocks that appear to be doing well, for fear of missing out on making money. This leads to speculation without regard for the underlying investment strategy. Investors can’t afford to get caught up in the “next big craze,” or they might be left holding valueless stocks when the craze subsides.

  • Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) can lead to speculative decision-making in emerging areas that are not yet established.
  • Fear of Losing Everything (FOLE) is a more powerful emotion that comes from the fear that they will lose all of their investment.

Acording to a 2021 Dalbar study of investor behavior, Dalbar found that individual fund investors consistently underperformed the market over the 20 years ending Dec. 31, 2020, generating a 5.96% average annualized return compared with 7.43% for the S&P 500 and 8.29% for the Global Equity Index 100.

“As humans, we’re wired to act opposite to our interests,” says Sunit Bhalla, a certified financial planner in Fort Collins, Colo. “We should be selling high and buying low, but our mind is telling us to buy when things are high and sell when they’re going down. It’s the classic fear-versus- greed fight we have in our brains.”

Avoiding these seven “emotional and behaviorial” investing traps will allow you to make rational investments.

  1. Fear of Missing Out – Like sheep, investors often take their cues from other investors and sometimes follow one another right over a market cliff. This herd mentality stems from a fear of missing out.  The remedy: By the time you invest in whatever is trending, it’s too late because professional investors trade the instant that news breaks. Individual investors should buy and sell based on the fundamentals of an investment, not the hype.
  2. Overconfidence – Some investors tend to overestimate their abilities. They believe they know better than everyone else about what the market is going to do next, says Aradhana Kejriwal, chartered financial analyst and founder of Practical Investment Consulting in Atlanta. “We want to believe we know the future. Our brains crave certainty.” The remedy: To combat overconfidence, build in a delay before you buy or sell an investment so that the decision is made rationally.
  3. Living in an Echo Chamber – Overconfidence sometimes goes hand in hand with confirmation bias, which is the tendency to seek out only information that confirms our beliefs. If we think an asset holds promise for riches, news about people making money sticks in our minds more than negative news, which we tend to dismiss. The remedy: To counteract this bias, actively seek out information that contradicts your thesis.
  4. Loss Aversion – Our brains feel pain more strongly than they experience pleasure. As a result, we tend to act more irrationally to avoid losses than we do to pursue gains. The remedy: Stock market losses, however, are inevitable.If seeing the losses pile up in a down market is too hard for you, simply don’t look. Have faith in your long-term investing strategy, and check your portfolio less often.
  5. No Patience for Sitting Idly By – As humans, we’re wired for action. That compulsion to act is known as action bias, and it’s one reason individual investors can’t outperform the market — we tend to trade too often. Doing so not only incurs trading fees and commissions, which eat into returns, but more often than not, we realize losses and miss out on potential gains. The remedy: Investors need to play the long game. Resist trading just for the sake of making a decision, and just buy and hold instead.
  6. Gambler’s Fallacy – “This is the tendency to overweight the probability of an event because it hasn’t recently occurred,” says Vicki Bogan, associate professor at Cornell University. Over time, the probability of equities having an up year or a down year is about the same, regardless of the previous year’s performance. That’s true for individual stocks as well. The remedy: When stocks go down, don’t just assume they’ll come back up. “You should be doing some analysis to see what’s going on,” Bogan says.
  7. Recency Bias – Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Yet, our minds tell us something different. “Most people think what has happened recently will continue to happen,” Bhalla says. It’s why investors will plow more money into a soaring stock market, when in fact they should be selling at least some of those appreciated shares. And if markets plummet, our brains tell us to run for the exits instead of buying when share prices are down.The remedy: You can combat this impulse by creating a solid, balanced portfolio and rebalancing it every six  months. That way, you sell the assets that have climbed and buy the ones that have fallen. “It forces us to act opposite to what our minds are telling us,” he says.

It is wise to always keep in mind that the market is volatile as a result of investors’ emotions and behaviors, and thus does not move logically.

References:

  1. https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/603153/the-psychology-behind-your-worst-investment-decisions

by: Katherine Reynolds Lewis – July 22, 2021

The Importance of Return on Equity

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ROE measures how much profit a company generates per dollar of shareholders’ equity.

Return on equity (ROE) is a must-know financial ratio. It is one of many numbers investors can use to measure return and support investing decision. It measures how many dollars of profit are generated by a company’s management for each dollar of shareholder’s equity.

The metric reveals just how well the company utilizes its equity to generate profits.  It reveals the company’s efficiency at turning shareholder investments into profits and explains, mathematically, the ratio of a company’s net income relative to its shareholder equity.

ROE is very useful for comparing the performance of similar companies in the same industry and can show you which are making most efficient use of their (and by extension investors’) money.

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett uses ROE as part of his investment decision making process. Buffet cares deeply about a company that uses its money wisely and efficiently. He believes that a successful stock investment is a result first and foremost of the underlying business; its value to the owner comes primarily from its ability to generate earnings at an increasing rate each year.

Buffett examines management’s use of owner’s equity, looking for management that has proven it is able to employ equity in new moneymaking ventures, or for stock buybacks when they offer a greater return.

What is ROE

Return on equity is a ratio of a public company’s net income to its shareholders’ equity, or the value of the company’s assets minus its liabilities. This is known as shareholders’ equity because it is the amount that would be divided up among those who held its stock if a company closed.

The basic formula for calculating ROE simply is to divide net income from a given period by shareholder equity. The net earnings can be found on the earnings statement from the company’s most recent annual report, and the shareholder equity will be listed on the company’s balance sheet. The specific ROE formula looks like this:

ROE = (Net Earnings / Shareholders’ Equity) x 100 or EPS / Book Value

“ROE tells you how good or bad management is doing with your investment,” says Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners in Bethesda, Maryland. “Higher ROEs generally stem from profitable businesses that enjoy competitive advantages within a given industry.”

A high ROE doesn’t always mean management is efficiently generating profits. ROE can be affected by the amount that a company borrows.

Increasing debt can cause ROE to grow even when management is not necessarily getting better at generating profit. Share buybacks and asset write-downs may also cause ROE to rise when the company’s profit is declining.

On the other hand, idle cash in excess of what the business needs to continue operations reduces the apparent profitability of the company when measured by return on equity. Distributing idle cash to shareholders is an effective way to boost its return on equity.

Key Takeaway

Return on Equity measures how efficiently a company generates net income based on each dollar invested by company’s shareholders.

A steady or increasing ROE is a company that knows how to successfully reinvest their earnings. This is important because most companies retain their earnings in the equity of the business.

A declining ROE is symbolic of executive management that is unable to successfully reinvest their capital in income producing assets. Companies like this should elect to pay most of their earnings to shareholders as dividends.

References:

  1. https://smartasset.com/investing/return-on-equity
  2. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/roe-return-on-equity/
  3. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/5-ways-improve-return-equity-2015-01-21
  4. https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/what-is-return-on-equity-the-ultimate-guide-to-roe

Investing Goals, Time Horizon and Risk Tolerance

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When it involves investing, it’s important that you start with your financial goals, time horizon and risk tolerance.

At times in calendar year 2020, the global economy seemed on the verge of collapse. Risk, ruin and enormous opportunity were the big stories of the year. Overall, the year was marked by change, opportunity, calamity and resilience in the financial markets.

Yet, in the financial markets, winners dramatically outweighed the losers, according to Forbes Magazine. Almost overnight, new winners were born in communications, technology, lodging and investments. Innovative technology companies in the S&P 500 Index propelled U.S. markets higher. And, many industries were more resilient than expected, in part because of an unprecedented monetary and fiscal response from Washington.

In light of the unprecedented upheaval, you, like everyone else, want to see their money grow over the long term, but it’s important to determine what investments best match your own unique financial goals, time horizon and tolerance for risk.

To learn the basics of investing, it might help to start at one place, take a few steps, and slowly expand outward.

Begin by Setting Goals

As an investor, your general aim should be to grow your money and diversify your assets. But your investing can take on many different forms.

For instance, it might help you to decide the investing strategies you intend to follow in order to grow your money. Such as whether you are interested in purchasing assets that could appreciate in value, such as equity stocks and funds, or play it relative safe with bonds and cash equivalents.

If you’re interested in investing in bonds, you will receive a steady stream of income over a predetermined time period, after which you expect repayment of your principal.

You might also be interested in pursuing both growth and income, via dividend stocks.

Learning to invest means learning to weigh potential returns against risk since no investment is absolutely safe, and there’s no guarantee that an investment will work out in your favor. In a nutshell, investing is about taking “calculated risks.”

Nevertheless, the risk of losing money—no matter how seemingly intelligent or calculated your approach—can be stressful. This is why it’s important for you to really get to know your risk tolerance level.  When it comes to your choice of assets, it’s important to bear in mind that some securities are riskier than others. This may hold true for both equity and debt securities (i.e., “stocks and bonds”).

Your investment time horizon can also significantly affect your views on risk. Changes in your outlook may require a shift in your investment style and risk expectations. For instance, saving toward a short-term goal might require a lower risk tolerance, whereas a longer investing horizon can give your portfolio time to smooth out the occasional bumps in the market. But again, it depends on your risk tolerance, financial goals, and overall knowledge and experience.

References:

  1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2021/12/28/forbes-favorites-2020-the-years-best-finance–investing-stories/
  2. https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/investing/learn-to-invest-money-17155