Tag Archives: Market Timing

Stay Invested – Time in the Markets

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“Time in the markets, not timing the markets.”

A common mantra in investing circles is ‘it’s about time in the markets, not timing the markets’. In other words, the best way to make money is to stay invested for the long term, rather than worrying about short term volatility or whether now is the best time to invest.

Value investing guru Benjamin Graham once quipped that “in the short term the stock market is a voting machine” that measures the popularity of companies and the sentiment of investors, whereas in “the long term it is a weighing machine” that measures each company’s fundamentals and intrinsic value.

Time in the market works because it takes this ‘guess the market bottom’ element out of the equation. By focusing on the long term, it’s easier to ignore the volatility of markets. Sure, it’s still scary watching the value of your share portfolio fall from time to time.

Time in the market is really about harnessing the power of compound interest. Compounding is the best thing about investing. Albert Einstein once said “Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe. Compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it, he who doesn’t, pays it.”

With compounding, your money accumulates a lot faster because the interest is calculated in regular intervals and you earn interest on top of interest. Compounding is usually what makes investors like billionaire investor Warren Buffett wealthy. If you are able to achieve a consistently high annual rate of return over the long term, building wealth is almost inevitable. And Buffett has never tried to time a market in his life.

But pushing and pulling your money in and out of the market stymies the compounding process. And all it takes is one massive mistime to end up back at square one given the fact that market can never be timed. Investor Peter Lynch said it best: “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.”

Compounding plays a pivotal role in growing your wealth. When using compounding, the results will be small at the start but over time, your wealth will accumulate fast. Warren Buffet is known to make the majority of his wealth later in his adult life and this is due to the compounding interest effect on his assets and invested capital.

Missing the best days

Timing the markets involves trying to second-guess the ups and downs, with the hope that you will buy when prices are low and sell when they are high. This can be lucrative if you get it right consistently, but this is very difficult to do and getting it wrong means locking in losses and missing out on gains.

Not only is timing the market difficult to get right, it also poses the risk of missing the ‘good’ days when share prices increase significantly. Historically, many of the best days for the stock markets have occurred during periods of extreme volatility.

Instead of trying to time the market, spending time in the market is more likely to give you better returns over the long term. It is best to base your investment decisions on the long-term fundamentals rather than short-term market noise and volatility.

Value of $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 in 1980

Source: Ned Davis Research, 12/31/1979-7/1/2020.

This chart uses a series of bars to show that from the end of 1979 until July 1, 2020, a $10,000 investment would have been worth $860,900 if invested the entire period. Missing just the 10 best days during that period would reduce the value by more than half, to $383,400.

Anybody who pulls money out in the early stages of a volatile period could miss these good days, as well as potentially locking in some losses. For instance, between May 2008 and February 2009 in the depths of the global financial crisis the MSCI World index dropped by -30.4%. By the end of 2009 it had bounced back +40.8%.

References:

  1. https://www.edwardjones.com/us-en/market-news-insights/guidance-perspective/benefits-investing-stock
  2. https://www.fa-mag.com/news/retirees-are-leading-precarious-financial-lives-42426.html
  3. https://www.tilney.co.uk/news/it-s-about-time-in-the-markets-not-timing-the-markets
  4. https://www.fool.com.au/2020/10/06/does-time-in-the-market-really-beat-timing-the-market/
  5. https://www.fool.com.au/definitions/compounding/

Investing Rules of the Road

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“Invest for the long term, seek quality investments and manage risk through diversification.”

The market changes every day, but what you want for your future probably doesn’t. The same goes for your investment / financial mindset, strategy and goals.

Your investment / financial mindset, strategy and goals are as unique as the route you take to reach them. But regardless of your course, the following 10 investing “rules of the road”, according to financial-services firm Edward Jones, can help you get where you want to be.

1. Develop your long-term goals and strategy

Determine your long-term goals, investment time frame and comfort level with risk – before deciding on a strategy. The more you can outline and clearly define what you are trying to achieve, the more you can tailor your strategy.

It’s tempting to chase the market, but most successful investors make their money over time, not overnight. Long-term investing with an emphasis on quality and diversification is a proven and time tested course of action.

The best way to build and preserve your financial future is with a long-term approach to investing. That’s why you don’t follow investment fads. But “buy and hold” doesn’t mean “buy and ignore.” You should still review your portfolio at least once a year to make sure you’re on track for the long haul.

Before you put your money in the market, you need to have a clear plan of what you want to accomplish and how you are going to do it. This is where creating an investment plan comes in.

The best investment plan is one that is customized to your lifestyle, so it’s necessary to create an individualized strategy that will set you on the path to success.

  1. Evaluate your current financial standing to understand how much risk you can take.
  2. Determine your goals and how long it will take you to realistically achieve them.
  3. Figure out which types of investments and strategies are the best way to get you to where you want to be.

Having a clear investment plan will give you a ton of clarity as you begin investing. By creating a specific plan, you will be ready to make your retirement goals a reality when that day comes.

2. Understand the risk and your risk tolerance

As a rule, the higher the return potential, the more risk you’ll have to accept. To determine what makes sense for you, you will want to know:

  • What is your comfort level with risk? Understanding this can help you determine how you may react to market ups and downs over time.
  • How much risk are you able to take? The amount of time you have to invest plays an important role in determining how much risk you’re able to take.
  • How much risk do you need to take? Your financial advisor will want to determine the return, and therefore the risk, that may be necessary to reach your long-term goals.

3. Diversify for a solid foundation

Your portfolio’s foundation is your asset allocation, or how your investments are diversified among stocks, bonds, cash, international and other investments. Your mix should align with your goals and comfort with risk.

While diversification can’t protect you against a loss, it can help reduce your risk. If your money is invested in just one or a few investments, and one of them struggles, your entire financial strategy could be in trouble. So most financial advisors recommend building a portfolio that includes different types of investments that perform differently over time.

4. Stick with quality

Believe in long-term investing with an emphasis on quality and diversification. Of all the factors to consider when investing, quality is one of the most important factor. It’s also one of the most overlooked. Although it may be tempting to buy a popular investment, it may not fit with the rest of your portfolio, and it may be riskier than you expect. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

5. Save and Invest for the long term

It’s tempting to chase the market, but despite stories of fortunes made on one or two trades, most successful individual investors make their money over time, not overnight. One of the biggest mistakes you can make is trying to “time” the markets.

Timing the market is difficult or simply impossible for even the most seasoned professional investors and smart money. Rather than waiting for the best time to invest, it can often be a better idea to just take the plunge into the market and get invested. Waiting for the best time will lead to a lot of missed opportunities.

6. Establish realistic expectations

You’ll need to determine the return you’re trying to achieve – which should be the return you need to reach your long-term goals. Then you can base your expectations on your asset allocation, the market environment and your investment time frame.

The average stock market total return (e.g. S&P 500 historical returns), from 1950 to 2020 was 8.9%.

7. Maintain your balance portfolio and asset mix

Your portfolio’s mix could drift from its initial objectives from time to time. You can rebalance to reduce areas where your investments are overweight or add to areas where they are underweight. By rebalancing on a regular basis, you can help ensure your portfolio remains aligned with your objectives and on track to reach your long-term goals.

8. Prepare for the unexpected

When things are going well, emergency savings can seem unimportant. But in addition to your regularly occurring expenses, like rent/mortgage and utility bills, you’ll often deal with unforeseen events and unexpected costs.

Unforeseen events can derail what you’re working so hard to achieve financially. By preparing for the unexpected and building a strategy to address it, you’ll be better positioned to handle the inevitable bumps along the way.

No one wants to think about car breakdowns or job loss. But as much as we’d like to avoid thinking about them, emergencies do happen. Building an emergency savings account that is dedicated to handling unexpected costs is important.

9. Focus on what you can control

You can’t control market fluctuations, the economy or the political environment. Instead, you should base your decisions on time-tested investment principles, which include:

  • Diversifying your portfolio
  • Owning quality investments
  • Maintaining a long-term perspective

Additionally, taking control of your spending habits and weighing them against your dreams for the future can determine how to align your spending goals. Perhaps you might decide that it’s more important for your family that you retire by a certain age, and you could drive one car for a longer time or cut back in other areas. That way, more money would be available to make that bigger dream a reality.

If you have “bad” debt from credit cards and high interest personal loans that will get you in trouble with interest payments, pay that off before you put money in the stock market. 

Don’t fall into the common money traps of trying to keep up with the Joneses: buying the latest phone, shiniest car, biggest house. These are money traps because they are things that will take all your money so you have nothing left to invest. Spending money wisely is one of the most important steps you can take to put yourself in the best possible financial situation before you begin investing.

10. Review your strategy regularly

The one constant you can expect is change. That’s why it’s so important that you review your strategy on a regular basis. You should still review your portfolio at least once a year to make sure you’re on track for the long haul.

Realizing your dreams starts with smart investing. By regularly reviewing your strategy and make the adjustments you need, you can have a clearer picture of where you stand and what you need to do to help reach your goals.

No matter what your path forward looks like, tailor your strategies – so you can see the road ahead and move forward with confidence.

References:

  1. https://www.edwardjones.com/us-en/market-news-insights/personal-finance/investing-strategies/investing-rules
  2. https://www.edwardjones.com/us-en/why-edward-jones/investing-approach/investment-philosophy
  3. https://www.ruleoneinvesting.com/blog/how-to-invest/get-started-investing-with-these-10-steps/