Tag Archives: Risk

Family Gatherings and House Parties Account for Majority of COVID-19 Transmissions

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In Maryland’s Prince George’s County, family gatherings and house parties have accounted for sixty-seven percent (67%) of COVID-19 transmissions, according to county officials. County officials say that contact tracers have determined that 44 percent of people who contracted COVID-19 reportedly attended family gatherings and 23 percent reportedly attended a house party.

Maryland Governor confirms that the trend is the same across the state of Maryland, saying that the number one cause of virus transmission in the state is family gatherings, followed by house parties, and then outdoor events.

Additionally, the Texas Medical Association released a chart breaking down the risk of contracting COVID-19 from certain activities ranging from grocery shopping, having parties at some else’s house and swimming in a public pool. Activities such as going to a hair salon or barbershop, traveling by plane, attending family gatherings like weddings and funerals, and going to a bar are considered moderate-high to high risk even for those wearing masks, maintaining six-feet of distance when out and washing hands thoroughly.

Texas Medical Association “Know Your Risk”

Currently, those at greatest risk of infection are individuals who have had prolonged, close contact with symptomatic or asymptomatic individuals infected with COVID-19 and those who live in or have recently been to areas with sustained transmission, according to Texas Medical Association and CDC. Keep in mind that many Americans have not been tested and studies suggest that people can be infected and not feel sick.

According to recent scientific findings, age is a strong risk factor for severe illness, complications, and death. Based on currently available information and clinical expertise, older adults and people of any age who have serious underlying medical conditions might be at higher risk for severe illness from COVID-19.

References:

  1. https://wjla.com/news/local/prince-georges-house-parties-family-gatherings-coronavirus
  2. https://www.tpr.org/post/know-your-risk-covid-19-chart-released-texas-medical-association
  3. https://www.texmed.org/uploadedFiles/Current/2016_Public_Health/Infectious_Diseases

COVID-19 vs. 1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic | The Daily Social Distancing Show with Trevor Noah

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One of the lessons experts learned from the 1918 flu pandemic is how quickly the pandemic was forgotten and how fast it disappeared from the political discourse.

The one lesson learned from a pandemic should be to never forget because forgetting doesn’t lead to positive public health outcomes.

There has been several global public health emergencies since 1918 such as SARS in 2003 and the 2009 H1N1pandemic influenza. Yet, these events have caught authorities and the general public by surprise, but not the epidemiologist who have been studying pandemics were not surprised.

Another lesson to remember is that governments have the responsibility to prepare for a pandemic; they have the obligation to invest in public-health systems to protect their citizens from both the threat and the reality of the next pandemic.

References:

  1. https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/05/harvard-expert-compares-1918-flu-covid-19/

Vanguard will offer Private Equity Investments

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Vanguard turns to what many view as the ‘dark side’ of investing, the world of complex, exclusive, expensive private equity investments

Vanguard Group plans to offer a private equity investments which will be managed by an outside firm called HarbourVest Partners. Initially, the private equity investment will be available only to institutions such as endowments and nonprofit foundations. But, Vanguard intends to move quickly beyond institutional investors.

Over time and as regulations change, Vanguard hopes to offer these private equity strategies to its individual, non-qualified retail investors.

Typically, private equity firms charge fees that are 2% of assets a year in management fees, plus 15% to 20% or higher of total returns in annual performance fees. Generally, money is locked up for years with little liquidity. This is why the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has long kept smaller, non qualified investors out of them.

In a statement, Vanguard chief executive Tim Buckley said, “Private equity will complement our leading index and actively managed funds, as we seek to broaden access to this asset class and improve client outcomes. While this strategy will be initially available to institutional advised clients, we aim to expand access to investors in additional channels over time. For individual investors in particular, this partnership will present an incredible opportunity — access and terms they could not get on their own.”

Contrasting Viewpoint

Eric Walters, founder of Silvercrest Wealth Planning, believes Vanguard’s move is “fraught with risks.” He added, “I think it could work if they are able to access top-quartile private equity managers, most of which are closed to new subscriptions”. Additionally, he added, “Managers below the top quartile often don’t do any better than public equities and often do worse. When you add the high fees and long holding periods, accessing lower-tier managers would be a bad deal for Vanguard clients.”

About Vanguard

Vanguard is one of the world’s largest investment management companies. As of December 31, 2019, Vanguard managed $6.2 trillion in global assets. The firm, headquartered in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, offers 424 funds to its more than 30 million investors worldwide. For more information, visit vanguard.com.

About HarbourVest

HarbourVest is an independent, global private markets investment specialist with over 35 years of experience and more than $68 billion in assets under management, as of December 31, 2019.

References:

  1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2020/02/05/vanguard-pushes-into-private-equity-by-accessing-dealmakers-like-stephen-schwarzman-robert-smith-and-orlando-bravo/#3431f0bf2760
  2. https://www.harbourvest.com/news/vanguard-and-harbourvest-announce-private-equity-partnership
  3. https://www.inquirer.com/business/vanguard-harbourvest-mortimer-tim-buckley-private-equity-20200206.html
  4. https://www.investmentnews.com/vanguard-puts-private-equity-investments-on-the-menu-187888

Democratic Socialism on the Rise in America

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“The strongest argument for socialism is that it sounds good. The strongest argument against socialism is that it doesn’t work. But those who live by words will always have a soft spot in their hearts for socialism because it sounds so good.” Thomas Sowell

Despite winning the 2020 Nevada Democratic Caucuses by a wide margin, most Americans fail to appreciate that Senator and Presidential candidate Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is not a liberal Democrat or a registered member of the Democratic Party. He is a registered Independent and an unapologetic self-professed Democratic Socialist.

However, as a Senator, he caucuses and aligns himself with the Democrat minority on the floor of the U.S. Senate. And, in the 2020 Presidential primaries, he campaigns and runs as a Democrat in his grassroots attempt to win the party’s nomination.

Additionally, billionaire Democratic Presidential candidate Mike Bloomberg, during a debate stage attack, stated that Senator Bernie Sanders is, “the best known Socialist in America”, and is a multi-millionaire who owns three houses (one in Washington, D.C. and two in Vermont).

According to Roger Altman, Evercore Founder and Senior Chairman, he conveyed on CNBC recently conveyed that under Bernie’s proposed socialist policies:

  1. If you have an employer provided health insurance plan, you’ll lose it.
  2. If you want to decriminalize the southern border, so if individuals are crossing the border illegally, they’ll get the equivalent of a traffic ticket.
  3. If you believe like Bernie that everyone in prison should have the right to vote, then he is your man.
  4. In the important battleground state of Florida, the philosophy of socialism carries very negative connotations and distasteful visceral reminders to many in the Cuban-American, Venezuelan, and Puerto Rican communities within the state.

Only something like ten percent of Americans believe in those Sanders positions. Maybe magic will happen. Record of prediction is unblemished with success.

“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.” Winston Churchill

World history demonstrates that global Democratic Socialists in the Western Hemisphere have often abandoned the “Democratic” part of their byline and replaced it with authoritarian actions like in Venezuela and Nicaragua. Although, this is believed highly unlikely with the many safeguards guaranteed in the U.S. Constitution.

If elected, Americans should not be surprised when a potentially future President Sanders attempts to steer the country down the path of the failed programs and policies common within socialism. But, socialism has been successful in bringing “shared economic misery” to the citizens of countries like Cube, Venezuela and the former Soviet Union and East Germany.

References:

  1. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/elections/bernie-sanders.html
  2. Roger Altman, Evercore Founder and Senior Chairman, CNBC Squawk on the Street

Coronavirus is less deadly than SARS — but that also explains why it’s so contagious – MarketWatch

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Two months into the epidemic, the coronavirus has not proven to be as deadly as the SARS virus. That, however, may also help explain why it’s spreading so quickly. It has an incubation period of up to two weeks, which enables the virus to spread through person-to-person contact.

The coronavirus, a highly contagious, pneumonia-causing illness that infects the respiratory tract, is now responsible for 213 deaths in China as of late Thursday and 9,692 infections worldwide, according to Chinese officials and official figures from the World Health Organization.

SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, infected 8,096 people worldwide with approximately 774 official SARS-related deaths; most of those infections occured during a nine-month period from 2002 to 2003. Even with 43 new fatalities reported over 24 hours, the fatality rate remains steady.

SARS had a fatality rate of 9.6% compared to the fatality rate of 2.2% for the coronavirus.

SARS had a fatality rate of 9.6% compared to the fatality rate of 2% for the coronavirus. However, that death toll could rise as the weeks progress, and drug companies scramble to come up with a vaccine for the virus. Whether the fatality rate remains steady has yet to be determined.

— Read on www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-is-less-deadly-than-sars-but-that-may-explain-why-its-so-contagious-2020-01-30

Buy the dip in stocks and then sell the rip higher – Bank of America

That’s the strategy that strategists at Bank of America Securities appears to be espousing for investors, amid swings in U.S. stock benchmarks that have become increasingly gut-wrenching in the aftermath of a coronavirus outbreak in China that appears to be giving bullish investors at least a momentary pause after a record-setting rally.

For the week, the S&P 500 index and Dow are on track for a more than 1% loss, and the Nasdaq is on pace for a 1.2% drop, after Chinese authorities on Thursday said that more than 7,700 people have been infected with the Asian influenza, with at least 170 dead. Moreover, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed the first case of person-to-person spread of coronavirus in Illinois. There are now six confirmed cases of coronavirus in the U.S., two of which are in Illinois

Don’t Just Save…Value Invest

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Make the most of your money and that means investing.

For many Americans, investing can appear to be a frightening gamble. Memories of the 2008 financial crisis devastated investment accounts with paper losses more than ten years ago create the reluctance among many to invest.

However, in order to beat inflation and ensure that your savings will work for you long term, it’s crucial to invest in growth-oriented investments such as the stock market. Whether through an employer-sponsored 401(k) plan, a traditional or Roth IRA, an individual brokerage account or somewhere else, to build wealth and financial security, individuals must invest in the equity stock market. And, it is important to start investing as early as you can to give your money as much time as possible to grow.

Valuation matters, and it matters a lot.

Value investing rarely performs well in the short run. This is especially true during strong bull markets. Popular non-GARP (growth at a reasonable price) stocks are likely to be overvalued whereas unpopular value stocks will be where the best bargains can be found.

Consequently, being a value investor means being a patient investor and implies that an investor have a long-term mindset. Value investing rarely produces short-term results, because value investing usually also implies investing in out of favor stocks. This unpopularity is often why they have become bargains.

Moreover, value stocks are typically inexpensive for good reasons. Therefore, we need to ascertain whether the discounted stock price is justified or perhaps an overreaction by investors. These judgments can help us determine the level of risk we are facing and if we are being adequately compensated for taking it by the low valuations or not.

Additionally, in the long run value stocks often dramatically outperform and very often do so by taking on significantly less risk than other strategies such as momentum, or in many cases even growth. This is attributed to the fact that the risk is being mitigated by low valuation (price) and margin of safety.

As a result, the key benefit of value investing is the valuation risk mitigation element. Research demonstrates that stocks that are properly valued, or undervalued, are more defensive in a volatile or bear market.

Margin of Safety

Margin of safety is the difference between the intrinsic value of a stock against its prevailing market price. Intrinsic value is the actual worth of a company’s asset, or the present value of an asset when adding up the total discounted future income generated:

  • Deep value investing – buying stocks in seriously undervalued businesses. The main goal is to search for significant mismatches between current stock prices and the intrinsic value of these stocks. This kind of investing requires a large amount of margin to invest with and takes lots of guts, as it is risky.
  • Growth at reasonable price investing – choosing companies that have positive growth trading rates which are somehow below the intrinsic value.

Margin of safety serves as a cushion against errors in calculation. Since fair value is difficult to accurately predict, safety margins protect investors from poor decisions and downturns in the market.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/07/how-much-money-youd-have-if-you-invested-500-dollars-a-month-since-2009.html

2020 Investment Outlook

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Investors should expect heightened market volatility in 2020. History tells us that it’s not uncommon for three to four large-cap equity stock market pullbacks of at least 5% to occur each year and market corrections of at least 10% can occur every year. As a result, it may be prudent for investors to position their stock portfolios away from higher-risk asset classes for safer asset classes.

Portfolio Guidance:

  • Cash has an important place in a portfolio as a volatility dampener and a source of funds.
  • Focus on higher quality assets.
  • Go beyond traditional fixed income for yield. Investors may consider equity dividends as another source of income.
  • Defense can be a good offense. Given expectations for market volatility, suggest reducing exposure to riskier assets.
  • Focus on longer-term diversification, as shorter periods are likely to be more volatile

7 Low-Risk Investments With High Returns in 2019 | TheStreet

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Low-risk is a relative term when it comes to investing. The classic risk-free investment is Treasury securities, but even they carry some degree of price risk. For those looking for low-risk investments, here are some to consider….

— Read on www.thestreet.com/personal-finance/low-risk-investments-with-high-returns-15170504

The Basics of Creating Your Emergency Fund | MakingCents | Navy Federal Credit Union

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Saving for Your Emergency Fund

Having an emergency fund can help you feel at ease and prepared for the unexpected. Putting aside three to six months of living expenses takes time. Start by opening an emergency savings account and begin making regular deposits, no matter how small. Look for accounts that pay the most interest, so your money can grow even faster.

Set a deadline to reach each of your goals. It’s helpful to have a plan in place to hold yourself accountable for reaching your goals. Having a deadline can help you stay on track. Don’t worry if you get a little behind. What’s important is that you’re moving ahead.

Track your progress. Remember-every little bit counts. Even if you only save a small amount each week, you’ll be building a cushion you didn’t have before. When you track your progress, you’ll see that you’re not only earning interest on the money you contribute, but you’re also earning interest on the interest you earned before. Take the time to enjoy watching your little fund grow. 

Resist the urge to spend it. It might be tempting to use your money on the latest technology or a fun vacation, but resist spending your emergency fund unless you really have an emergency. That way, it will be there when you really need it.

— Read on makingcents.navyfederal.org/knowledge-center/financial-literacy/saving–getting-started/emergency-funds.html

Why Failure Is Good for Success | SUCCESS

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Failure is as powerful a tool as any in reaching great success.

“Failure and defeat are life’s greatest teachers [but] sadly, most people, and particularly conservative corporate cultures, don’t want to go there,” says Ralph Heath, managing partner of Synergy Leadership Group and author of Celebrating Failure: The Power of Taking Risks, Making Mistakes and Thinking Big.

In today’s post-recession economy, some employers are no longer shying away from failure—they’re embracing it. According to a recent article in BusinessWeek, many companies are deliberately seeking out those with track records reflecting both failure and success, believing that those who have been in the trenches, survived battle and come out on the other side have irreplaceable experience and perseverance.

“The quickest road to success is to possess an attitude toward failure of ‘no fear.’ ”

They’re veterans of failure. The prevailing school of thought in progressive companies—such as Intuit, Corning and Virgin Atlantic—is that great success depends on great risk, and failure is simply a common byproduct. Executives of such organizations don’t mourn their mistakes but instead parlay them into future gains.

“The quickest road to success is to possess an attitude toward failure of ‘no fear,’ ” says Heath. “To do their work well, to be successful and to keep their companies competitive, leaders and workers on the front lines need to stick their necks out a mile every day.

Embrace failure as a necessary step to unprecedented success.

— Read on www.success.com/why-failure-is-good-for-success/