Tag Archives: Stocks

Ransomware Attacks and Cyber Scams Surge in 2020

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Ransomware attacks surged 300% in calendar year 2020, according to Chainalysis. And in 2020, $406.3 million was paid out in cryptocurrency ransoms, 337% more than the previous year. This calendar year’s ransom payments are on pace to pass seven figures.

The attacks have crippled supply chains and critical infrastructure by holding digital information hostage.

  • Colonial Pipeline, one of the largest fuel pipelines in the US, was forced offline for six days in May.
  • An Iowa grain co-op was hit by a cyberattack, and hackers demanded $5.9 million to unlock the organization’s data.

Ransomware is something that government agencies are extremely focused on these days. They’re viewing it on par with terrorist financing attacks. The victims of ransomware attacks are mostly big businesses, where more sophisticated attack appear to be sanctioned by foreign governments such as Russia, China, North Korea or Iran.

However, big business are not the only victims of cybercriminals. Nearly 7,000 individual investors lost a collective $80 million to cryptocurrency scams from October 2020 to March 2021, according to the Federal Trade Commission.

Currently, the biggest type of cybercriminal activity in terms of volume is scamming: your investment scam, your Ponzi scheme, or just a phishing attack. Retail investors are oftentimes more vulnerable to being taken advantage of by scammers. But these scams impact the government as well, because the SEC is chartered to make sure they’re protecting consumers.

The bottomline is that “illicit activity on the blockchain is heating up, from minor scams to elaborate ransomware attacks”, explained Kimberly Grauer, director of research at Chainalysis.

The majority of cryptocurrency activity is legal according to the U.S. Treasury Department. But, cryptocurrency can be exploited by cybercriminals and leveraged for ransomware attacks. Crypto’s decentralized nature can make it more difficult to track down hackers.

The SEC’s Office of Investor Education and Advocacy issues periodic Investor Alerts to help investors identify signs that what is offered as an investment may actually be a scam or fraud. They urge investors to be on high alert in order to protect themselves and others from becoming victims of investment cyber fraud.

The key to avoiding investment fraud and scams is to be an educated investor. Below are five tips from the SEC website investor.gov to help you avoid investment fraud:

  1. Be Wary of Unsolicited Offers to Invest – Cybercriminals look for victims on social media sites, chat rooms, and bulletin boards. If you see a new post on your wall, a tweet mentioning you, a direct message, an e-mail, or any other unsolicited – meaning you didn’t ask for it and don’t know the sender – communication regarding a so-called investment opportunity, you should exercise extreme caution.
  2. Look out for Common “Red Flags” – Wherever you come across a recommendation for an investment – be it on the Internet or from a personal friend (or both), “red flags” such as (a) It sounds too good to be true since any investment that sounds too good to be true probably is; (b) The promise of “guaranteed” returns since every investment entails some level of risk, which is reflected in the rate of return you can expect to receive; and (c) Pressure to buy RIGHT NOW because should not be pressured or rushed into buying an investment before you have a chance to research the “opportunity.”
  3. Look out for “Affinity Fraud” – Never make an investment based solely on the recommendation of a member of an organization or group to which you belong, especially if the pitch is made online. An investment pitch made through an online group of which you are a member, or on a chat room or bulletin board catered to an interest you have, may be an affinity fraud. Affinity fraud refers to investment scams that prey upon members of identifiable groups, such as religious or ethnic communities, the elderly, or professional groups. Even if you do know the person making the investment offer, be sure to check out everything – no matter how trustworthy the person seems who brings the investment opportunity to your attention (think Bernie Madoff). Be aware that the person telling you about the investment may have been fooled into believing that the investment is legitimate when it is not.
  4. Be Thoughtful About Privacy and Security Settings – Investors who use social media websites as a tool for investing should be mindful of the various features on these websites in order to protect their privacy and help avoid fraud. Understand that unless you guard personal information, it may become available for anyone with access to the Internet – including cybercriminals.
  5. Ask Questions and Check Out Everything – Be skeptical and research every aspect of an offer before making a decision. Investigate the investment thoroughly and check the truth of every statement you are told about the investment. Never rely on a testimonial or take a promoter’s word at face value. You can check out many investments using the SEC’s EDGAR filing system or your state’s securities regulator.

Investors on the Internet and social media should always be on the lookout for cyber scams and fraud. If you have a question or concern about an investment, or you think you have encountered fraud, you should contact the SEC or FINRA,

References:

  1. https://www.morningbrew.com/daily/stories/2021/08/23/blockchain-expert-fights-crypto-crime
  2. https://www.sec.gov/oiea/investor-alerts-bulletins/ia_5redflags.html
  3. https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/general-resources/news-alerts/alerts-bulletins/investor-alerts/updated-11
  4. https://www.sec.gov/oiea/investor-alerts-and-bulletins/investment-scam-complaints-rise-investor-alert

Auto Enrollment Retirement Plans are Here

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“Americans aren’t saving enough for retirement and nearly half of people 55 and older have nothing saved for when they stop working. Government Accounting Office

Nearly one in four working-age Americans aren’t saving for retirement, and those who are say they aren’t saving enough, according to a PwC analysis. Further, a majority (55%) said they either are not participating in a workplace sponsored retirement plan like a 401(k) or they don’t know if they are in a plan.

The Government Accountability Office reports that nearly half of people 55 and older have nothing saved for when they stop working, meaning there is a building retirement-savings crisis and a wave of future retirees threatens to overburden an already fragile Social Security Administration. Consequently, this can upset a balanced economy that relies on older Americans spending money in the housing and health-care sectors.

Auto-enrollment retirement plans

Auto-enrollment and auto-escalation programs implemented by a few states have proved successful at closing that gap, particularly for workers in retail and service sectors of the economy. These sectors in the past have rarely offered retirement benefits to low-income staff.

In fact, plans that used automatic enrollment had a 92% participation rate in 2020, compared with 62% for plans with voluntary enrollment, according to Vanguard’s “How America Saves 2021” research. And, employees who worked for firms with automatic enrollment saved more than 50% more for retirement in 2020 than those employed at firms with voluntary enrollment.

Further, research shows that participants enrolled in a plan with automatic increase save, on average, 20% to 30% more after three years in the plan, compared with participants in an automatic enrollment plan that does not automatically increase participants.

As a result, Congress is proposing a Federal mandatory framework for workplace retirement plans. Starting in 2023, the retirement saving plan would require employers with more than five workers to automatically enroll new hires for retirement benefits, the contributions to which would automatically increase over time.

In short, businesses would automatically deduct 6% of new workers’ income into a low-cost retirement plan and automatically escalated that contribution to 10% over time, unless workers themselves opted for something different.

It’s mandatory for employers, but not their employees, who can choose to opt out of the savings plan or change their contributions. But the default choice would always be to signup, essentially making retirement funds a statutory benefit like unemployment or workers’ compensation insurance.

Failure to provide a low-cost retirement option such as a 401(k) or individual retirement account would cost a business an excise tax liability of $10 for every worker per day of noncompliance, which would add up.

Over the last two decades, continued adoption of automatic solutions has increased employee savings and the use of professionally managed allocations. Thoughtful retirement plan designs are helping people save and invest for retirement.

References:

  1. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-tax-report/retirement-savings-and-democrats-latest-tax-plans-explained
  2. https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/asset-wealth-management/library/retirement-in-america.html
  3. https://institutional.vanguard.com/content/dam/inst/vanguard-has/insights-pdfs/21_TL_HAS_InsightsToAction_2021.pdf

Financial Metrics for Evaluating a Stock

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“If you don’t study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.” Peter Lynch

Anyone can be successful investing in the stock market. But, it does take thorough research, patience, discipline and resilience. And, it’s important to appreciate that “Behind every stock, there is a company. Find out what it’s doing”, says Peter Lynch, who managed the Fidelity Magellan Fund from 1977 to 1990 and achieved an impressive return which reportedly averaged over 20% per year.

With a long-term view to investing, Lynch would patiently wait for the company to become recognized by Wall Street for its growth, which subsequently unleashed an explosive rise in its stock price as smart money and institutional investors rush to buy stock.

In his book “One Up On Wall Street”, he reveals his principles and metrics for successful investing. Here are 11 financial metrics investors can utilize to evaluate a company’s value:

  1. Market Cap – Shows the current size and scale of the company. “If a picture is worth a thousand words, in business, so is a number.” Peter Lynch
  2. Strong Balance Sheet (Cash on Hand / Long Term Debt to Equity) – Shows how financially sound a business has become and its capacity to withstand an economic downturn. Determine if the company’s cash has been increasing and long term debt has been decreasing?
  3. Sales and Earnings Growth Rates – Shows if the business model works & current growth rate
  4. Free Cash Flow – Shows if company generating or burning through cash
  5. Returns on Capital (ROE / ROIC / ROA)- shows capital efficiency of business
  6. Margins (Gross Profit Margin / Operating Margin / Profit Margin / Net Income) – Shows current profit profile of products, spending rates, & potential for operating leverage
  7. Total Addressable Market – What is market size and long term growth potential for the company.
  8. Long Term (5+ years) Stock Performance vs. market – has the stock created or destroyed value for shareholders. “In the long run, it’s not just how much money you make that will determine your future prosperity. It’s how much of that money you put to work by saving it and investing it.” Petere Lynch
  9. Current Valuation (Price to Sales / Price to Earnings / Price to Book / Price to FCF) – How expensive or inexpensive is the stock price.or is the company reasonably priced. “If you can follow only one bit of data, follow the earnings (assuming the company in question has earnings). I subscribe to the crusty notion that sooner or later earnings make or break an investment in equities. What the stock price does today, tomorrow, or next week is only a distraction.” Peter Lynch
  10. Mission and Vision Statement – Understand why the company exist.  What is it doing. “Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.” Peter Lynch
  11. Insider Ownership – Do insiders have skin in the game. SEC Filings. Information available on proxy statement.

Additionally, it is important to figure out:

  1. What is changing
  2. What is not changing
  3. Is there an underappreciation for either. “Your investor’s edge is not something you get from Wall Street experts. It’s something you already have. You can outperform the experts if you use your edge by investing in companies or industries you already understand.” Peter Lynch

Do that well, move on #3, you’re the best investor in the world.

As an investor, unless you understand the underlying business of a company, you will not be able to hold its stock when the price is falling. You could end up selling a great company out of fear – even though its price will recover in the future and give you great returns in the years to come. The ability to hold a good company even when its stock price is falling or undergoing a time correction – will play a crucial role in you becoming a successful investor.

In the long run, the stock price will go up only if the business of the company does well.

In Peter Lynch’s own words “I think you have to learn that there’s a company behind every stock, and that there’s only one real reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies”

If you like a stock, buy small quantity of shares. Study the company in more detail. Buy more shares if you like its business. As your understanding of the business increases, your conviction (confidence) will also increase, this will allow you to give higher allocation in your portfolio.

Categories of Stocks in the Stock Market

Peter Lynch divided different stocks into six categories

Slow Growers – Slow growers are those stocks that have a slow growth rate i.e. a low upward slope of earnings and revenue growth.These slow growers can be characterized by the size and generosity of their dividend. According to Peter Lynch, the only reason to buy these stocks are dividends.

The Stalwarts – The Stalwarts have an average growth rate as that of industry and are usually mid to large companies. They have an earnings growth between the 8-12 percent CAGR range. According to Peter Lynch, investors can get an adequate return from these stocks if they hold these stocks for a long time.

The Fast Growers – The fast growers are generally aggressive companies and they grow at an impressive rate of 15-25% per year. They are fast-growth stocks and grow at a comparatively faster rate compared to the industry average and competitors. However, Peter Lynch advises that one should be open-eyed when they own a fast grower. There is a great likelihood for the fast growers to get hammered if they run out of steam or if their growth is not sustainable.

The Cyclicals – Cyclical are stocks that grow at a very fast pace during their favorable economic cycle. The cyclical companies tend to flourish when coming out of a recession into a vigorous economy. Peter Lynch advises investors to own the cyclical only on the right part of the cycle i.e. when they are expanding. If bought at the wrong phase, it may even take them years before they perform. Timing is everything while investing in cyclical stocks.

The Turnarounds – The turnarounds are characterized as potential fatalities that have been badly hammered by the market for one or more of a variety of reasons but can make up the lost ground under the correct circumstances. Holding turnarounds can be very profitable if the management is able to turn the company as these stocks can be bought at a very low valuation by the investors. However, if the management fails to bring back the company on track, it can be very troublesome for the investors.

Asset Plays – Asset Plays are those stocks whose assets are overlooked by the market and are undervalued. These assets may be properties, equipment, or other real assets that the company is holding but which is not valued by the investors when there has been a general market downturn. The real value may be worth more than the market capitalization of the company. Peter Lynch suggests owning a few of these stocks in your portfolio as they are most likely to add a lot of value to your portfolio. However, the biggest significant factor while picking these stocks is to carefully estimate the right worth of the assets. If you are able to do it, you can pick valuable gems.

“Average investors can become experts in their own field and can pick winning stocks as effectively as Wall Street professionals by doing just a little research.” Peter Lynch

Infinity income – When your income from investments is higher than your expenses, you might be able to live off those returns for 10 years, 30 years, 50 years… or forever!

References:

  1. https://stockinvestingtoday.blog/the-investing-style-of-peter-lynch?
  2. https://www.thebalance.com/peter-lynch-s-secret-formula-for-valuing-a-stock-s-growth-3973486
  3. https://goldenfs.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/summary-One-Up-On-Wall-Street-Peter-Lynch-2-scaled.jpg

Four Secret to Investing Outperformance – Motley Foolo

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“The average investor’s portfolio lags the performance of the S&P 500 by nearly 4 percentage points.”

The average retail investor’s portfolio lags the performance of the S&P 500 by nearly 4 percentage points, a DALBAR study shows. The lag is a result of bad behaviors by investors because investors jumped into funds when they were already at a high mark—with lower returns in their future—and dumped funds when they were on the way down, without waiting for a rebound.

The returns received by investors vs. returns earned by funds based on Morningstar data

There are four secrets to outperformance, according to Motley Fool, and the secrets are simpler than you might expect.

  • You take market returns – According to a 2020 study by financial research company Dalbar, average investors earned about 5% annual growth in their accounts over the last 30 years. That’s roughly half the average growth rate of the S&P 500 in the same time frame. You can avoid lagging the S&P 500 index by 4% to 5%. If you invest in S&P 500 index funds, you should see performance that’s only a fraction below the index.
  • You stay calm – The Dalbar report finds that 70% of the average investors’ underperformance occurred in volatile markets. Specifically, most of the investors who performed the worst sold their securities when the market was in crisis. Had they held on to those investments, they would have ultimately fared better. The takeaway here is it’s usually best to stay calm and stay invested.
  • Selectively, you do the opposite of the crowd – When everyone else is selling, it’s often a good time to buy. By following best practices such as not investing in a downturn unless your finances are in order; not expecting a quick return; and investing in a “quality” stock of an established company with low or manageable debt, experienced leadership, and consistent cash flows and profits.
  • You buy and hold  – The Dalbar report also concludes that a buy-and-hold strategy with the S&P 500 would have returned more than the average investor’s portfolio. Buy-and-hold investing is the practice of investing in stocks and funds that you intend to keep for years or decades. To implement this approach, pick quality stocks or funds and hold them indefinitely. You might sell if the company changes in some fundamental way, but you won’t sell because the market’s having a temporary crisis.

Hopefully, these four secrets to beating the average investor sound easy. They are, as long as you can resist making emotional decisions.

The average investor can get anxious about market volatility, and that’s often when shortsighted decisions are made. Even investors who can tune out market noise sometimes find it hard to avoid tinkering with a portfolio that doesn’t seem to be growing as anticipated.

When it comes to investing, patience is a virtue.

References:

  1. https://investor.vanguard.com/investing/portfolio-management/performance-overview
  2. https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/22/4-secrets-to-beating-the-average-investor/

Loss of Purchasing Power: Is $1 million enough for retirement?

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“One million dollars doesn’t buy as many Cadillac Escalades as it used to.”

Today, $1 million no longer buys as many McDonald’s Big Mac sandwiches or Rolex Submariner watches or Ford F150 trucks as it once did thirty years ago.  There’s a good reason for that called ‘loss of purchasing power’ which is a byproduct of inflation. That’s because $1 million of purchasing power in 1970 was the equivalent of nearly seven million dollars today, according to Motley Fool. And as recently as 1990, a million dollars has lost half its buying power since then, meaning you’d need two million today to have the same buying power as you did in 1990.

As a result of normal inflation and loss of purchasing power, $1 million retirement nest egg today definitely will not offer you as comfortable a retirement lifestyle as it did a few years ago or a few decades ago.

Retirement is not an age, but a number

Financial preparedness is more important than reaching a certain retirement age. And, to answer the question of whether $1 million or any amount of money is enough for retirement, the answer depends on what you want your retirement to look like.

It’s important to ensure you have enough savings and income to sustain your spending and lifestyle in retirement. If you don’t have enough money set aside to pay for your retirement, then you may have to delay retiring. And no matter where you are on your retirement journey, you can make your financial number. No matter how little you have or how much time you have left until you want to retire, you can always improve your financial situation. Getting started and creating a retirement plan can carry you a long way.

A 2018 Northwestern Mutual study found that one in three Americans has less than $5,000 saved up for retirement, and 21% of Americans have no retirement savings at all. Overall, Americans are feeling underprepared and less confident regarding the financial realities of retirement, according to the data.

Despite these findings regarding the woeful retirement savings rate by Americans, it’s still not too late to enjoy the kind of life you’ve worked so hard for… and the retirement you deserve.

One of the most important goals for Ameriocans facing retirement is knowing that they can sustain their desired level of spending and lifestyle throughout their lives, with a sense of financial peace of mind and without the fear of running out of money.  For our purposes, financial peace of mind is the knowledge that, no matter your level of savings or degree of market volatility, you are confident that you are unlikely to run out of money during retirement to support your level of spending and  lifestyle.

Taking the financial road less traveled

Conventional wisdom recommend that older Americans should reduce their stock allocation in retirement and move into more safe investments such as bonds and cash.  Although this may seem the less risky road to take in your retirement years, a few experts do not agree.  If you expect to maintain your purchasing power into future, you must stay invested in stocks.

“The idea that a 60-year-old retiree should be investing primarily in conservative investments is an antiquated way of approaching personal finance”, says Jake Loescher, financial advisor, at Savant Capital Management in a 2017 U.S. News article. “Historically, the rule of thumb stated that an individual should take the number 100, subtract their age, which will define the amount of stocks someone should have in their portfolio. For a 60-year-old, this obviously would mean 40 percent stocks is an appropriate amount of risk.”

“A better approach would be to perform a risk assessment and consider first how much risk an individual needs to take based on their personal circumstances,” Loescher says.

According to the article, there are five circumstances when retirees should eskew conventionl wisdom:

  1. The likelihood you’ll live into your 90s or beyond. Since life expectancy is much longer these days and in today’s low-interest environment, you face an increase risk of your nest egg not keeping up with inflation over the long haul.
  2. If you don’t have enough cash for retirement. If you didn’t accumulate enough retirement assets to sustain an expected lifestyle, it becomes essential to decide how much capital in a retirement portfolio you’re willing to risk for the potential upside appreciation.
  3. When interest rates are low. Low interest rates makes the capital risk seem greater than the value bonds might provide due to a loss of purchasing power.  Taking a total-return approach, using low volatility, dividend-paying stocks to replace part of our typical bond component seems the best approach.
  4. If you have estate planning needs. If you don’t depend totally on your investments for income, then your money may be providing a bequest for charity or an inheritance for children.
  5. For historical purposes. The stock market has outperformed all other asset classes over the last century.

In retrospect, retirees will need to allocate a certain portion of their assets to higher-return equity investments to achieve long-term retirement objectives – be it longevity of assets, a desired level of sustainable income, the ability to leave a legacy, etc.

Essentially, the stock market has outperformed all other asset classes over the last century. And studies continue to show that unless you are within three years of retirement, the average variability of stocks relative to their returns is superior to that of Treasurys, municipal and corporate bonds.  Thus, the right course of action is for older Americans to stay invested in the stock market past age 60 which will provide you at least 20 years, on average, to ride out the long-term volatility inherent in equities.

References:

  1. https://www.fool.com/ext-content/is-1-million-enough-for-retirement/
  2. https://www.pimco.com/en-us/insights/investment-strategies/featured-solutions/worried-about-retirement-pimcos-plan-to-help-retirement-savings-last-a-lifetime
  3. https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/2017-07-24/5-reasons-to-stay-in-the-stock-market-in-your-60s
  4. https://www.pimco.com/en-us/insights/investment-strategies/featured-solutions/income-to-outcome-pimcos-retirement-framework
  5. https://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/on-retirement/2011/03/22/why-retirement-is-not-an-age

Staying Invested in the Stock Market

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“The stock market is the only market where the goods go on sale and everyone becomes too afraid to buy.”  Nerd Wallet

When the market dips even a few percent, as it often does, many retail investors become fearful and sell in a panic, according to Nerd Wallet. Yet when stock prices rise, investors beomce greedy and plunge in headlong which is the perfect definition for “buying high and selling low.”

Here are the three popular fairytales investors tell themselves regarding investing:

  1. Wait until the stock market is safe to invest – This excuse is used by investors after stocks have declined, when they’re too afraid to buy into the market. But when investors say they’re waiting for it to be safe, they mean they’re waiting for prices to climb. So waiting for (the perception of) safety is just a way to end up paying higher prices, and indeed it is often merely a perception of safety that investors are paying for. Fear drives the behavior and psychologists call this behavior “myopic loss aversion.” That is, investors would rather avoid a short-term loss at any cost than achieve a longer-term gain.
  2. Buy back in next week when the stock market is lower – This excuse is used by would-be buyers as they wait for the stock to drop. But as the data shows, investors never know which way stocks will move on any given day, especially in the short term. Both fear and greed drive this behavior. The fearful investor may worry the stock is going to fall and waits, while the greedy investor expects a fall but wants to try to get a much better price.
  3. Bored with this stock, so I’m selling – This excuse is used by investors who need excitement from their investments. But smart successful investing is actually boring. The best investors sit on their stocks for years and years, letting them compound gains. All the gains come while you wait, not while you’re trading in and out of the market. Investor’s desire for excitement drives this behavior.

The key to long term investment success is creating a plan, sticking to the plan and remaining in the stock market through “thick and thin”. Your length of “time in the market” is the best predictor of your investing performance. Unfortunately, investors often move in and out of the stock market at the worst possible times, missing out on performance and annual return.

“The secret to making money in stocks? Staying invested long-term, through good times and bad.”  Nerd Wallet

In a nutshell, more time in the stock market equals more opportunity for your investments to increase in value. The best companies tend to increase their revenue and profits over time, and investors reward these greater earnings with a higher stock price. That higher price translates into a higher total return for patient and disciplined investors who own the stock.

References:

  1. https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/make-money-in-stocks

The National Study of Millionaires

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“Anyone in America can build wealth. The only thing holding you back is you. Get out of debt. Save consistently. Keep your spending in check. Let time and compound interest do their magic. If you’re willing to work hard and keep the long-term goal in mind, you’ll reach the million-dollar milestone.” Chris Hogan

Summary

  • “The National Study of Millionaires” is the largest survey of millionaires ever with 10,000 participants.
  • Eight out of ten millionaires invested in their company’s 401(k) plan.
  • The top five careers for millionaires include engineer, accountant, teacher, management and attorney.
  • 79% of millionaires did not receive any inheritance at all from their parents or other family members.

The National Study of Millionaires by Ramsey Solutions concluded that millionaires successfully accumulated wealth through consistent investing, avoiding debt like the plague, and smart spending. No lottery tickets. No inheritances. No six-figure incomes.

Thus, according to the survey, there is positive news for Americans who may have lost hope that they can ever accumulate wealth. “The people in the study became millionaires by consistently saving over time. In fact, they worked, saved and invested for an average of 28 years before hitting the million-dollar mark, and most of them reached that milestone at age 49.”

The study’s results demonstrated a dramatic difference between how Americans think wealthy people get their money and how they actually earn and spend their money.

In a nutshell, regular, consistent investing over a long period of time is the reason most of the people in the survey successfully accumulated wealth. And, even when millionaires don’t have to worry about money anymore, they remain careful about their spending. Ninety-four percent of the people studied said they live on less than they make. By staying out of debt and watching expenses, they’re able to build their bank accounts instead of trying to get out of a financial hole every month.

Small-Cap Stocks

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“Growth is greatest in the early stages of a company’s development.” Cabot Wealth

There is a common perception among investors that over the long term, small-cap stocks outperform large-cap stocks. In exchange for more risk, you get more reward.

As it turns out, this is mostly untrue, according to Seeking Alpha. The best small-cap stocks offer more explosive upside potential, but as a group they don’t really outperform large-cap stocks, subject to a few caveats.

The best possible investing scenario is to identify a top small-cap stock that will go on to become a large-cap stock over the coming years, and go up in value by 10x or 100x.

Unfortunately, for every massive winner that does that, there are multiple losers. Both Russell and Wilshire data show that small-cap stocks don’t really outperform as a group. They’re not bad, but over four decades they don’t really stand out either. Mid-cap stocks are a potential sweet spot, that investors can benefit from either by directly investing mid-cap fund or investing into an equal weight large-cap fund which tends to have a lot of overlap with the mid-cap space.

A 2017 study by Hendrik Bessembinder that analyzed virtually all U.S. public stocks over the past 90 years found that small-cap stocks have much higher performance variance. A smaller percentage of small-cap stocks provide positive long-term returns compared to the percentage of large-cap stocks that provide positive long-term returns. As a consequence, small stocks more frequently deliver returns that fail to match benchmarks.

Conversely, while the absolute best-performing small caps outperform the best-performing large caps over a given period, small caps as a group also have much higher rates of catastrophic loss.

Anytime you buy shares of a small, lessor-known company, there are a plethora of unknowns. Thus, it’s impossible to take the risk completely out of small-cap investing. But there are ways to minimize those risks without sacrificing potential profits.

The defining characteristics of small-cap stocks are that many are young, attractive investments and tend to be highly volatile. This volatility can be absolutely maddening for those who are new to small-cap investing (and even to those who aren’t).

Don’t let this volatility drive you away from small-cap stocks if you’re inclined to invest in them. Volatility comes and goes, and over the long-term small caps tend to beat the market.

FIVE SIMPLE RULES FOR SUCCESS WITH SMALL-CAP STOCKS

It’s important to set up a clearly established set of rules ahead of time, and stick to them. The simple rules that can increase your odds of success, especially during uncertain markets, are:

Rule #1: Commit To The Long Term: One of the more frequently quoted Warren Buffett quips is, “If you aren’t thinking about owning a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it for 10 minutes.”

You don’t need to own every small-cap stock you buy for the next decade. But you do need to look out at least a year or two if you expect to have significant success.

There are select examples of investors making money trading in and out of small caps in the short term. But very few can do it week in and week out, year after year. All the studies say the same thing; your odds of making money go up the longer you stick with small-cap stocks.

A study from Ibbotson, a financial research firm owned by Morningstar, found that investors have a 70% chance of making money with small-cap stocks if they stay invested for one year. That probability goes up to 82% after three years, 86% after five years and 98% after 10 years. The percentages aren’t all that different for large caps.

Rule #2: Dollar Cost Average Your Cost Basis: Small-cap stocks can be irrational in the short term. That’s why you never do anything too drastic. Don’t go all in on an individual stock on a big pullback, or a big breakout. Instead, average into a position by buying shares at different prices and on different days. The strategy helps to reduce the risk of buying a full position in a stock at an unlucky time, which is bound to happen occasionally.

The period over which you average in should be dictated by your holding time horizon. If you’re investing for just a year or two, you’ll probably average in over a week or two, maybe a month. If you’re in it for three or more years, you can average in over a year, or more.

Rule #3: Take Partial Profits: If averaging in makes sense, then averaging out should too. Consider selling a quarter or a half position on the way up, and especially if a gain has surpassed 100%. This doesn’t have to mean giving up on the stock. It’s simply a risk-mitigation strategy. The original capital can be allocated to a lower-risk investment.

Also, it’s fine to average back into a position even if you sold shares at an earlier date. Sometimes, especially during corrections, investors are forced to dump some shares to protect their gains. Months later, the stock might be doing just fine. If the growth story is intact and the market is trending up there’s no reason you can’t build up your position again.

Rule #4: Use a Stop Loss: For small cap stocks, many advisors advocate a 15% to 30% stop loss for large caps. The reason is that you often see quality small caps drop 20% or so during market corrections. Often, these are the times to average down if and when the stock has stabilized, assuming the stock’s growth story is intact,.

That said, it can also be a time to sell a partial, or full, position to protect gains, or help avoid catastrophic losses. How close you are to your desired position size will usually determine if you’re averaging in, or out. The underlying reason for using stop losses is that the bigger the loss, the bigger the return you need to get back to break even (see table below). Don’t go below the red line!

Rule #5: If You’re Not Sure What To Do, Do Nothing: Just because the market is open doesn’t mean you need to participate in it. If you’ve had a streak of losses, or things just don’t feel right, take a break. Focus your attention on a few stocks you’d like to own eventually and read up on those so you’re ready to go when the stock’s margin of safety improves, and your confidence returns.

As Warren Buffett said, “I’ve had periods in my life when I’ve had a bundle of ideas come along, and I’ve had long dry spells. If I get an idea next week, I’ll do something. If not, I won’t do a damn thing.”

Investing in small-cap stocks is a good way to earn huge returns. Consequently, there are two major ways to outperform the market.

  • You can take advantage of short-term price dislocation versus a company’s intrinsic value, or
  • Use long-term compounding to achieve market outperformance.

References:

  1. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4287533-small-cap-performance-gap-doesnt-exist-why
  2. https://cabotwealth.com/category/daily/small-cap-stocks
  3. https://cabotwealth.com/daily/small-cap-stocks/small-cap-stock-warren-buffett/

The Biggest Mistakes Individual Investors Make

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“The public’s careful when they buy a house, when they buy a refrigerator, when they buy a car. They’ll work hours to save a hundred dollars on a roundtrip air ticket. They’ll put $5,000 or $10,000 on some zany idea they heard on the bus. That’s gambling. That’s not investing. That’s not research. That’s just total speculation.” Peter Lynch

For the 13 years, Peter Lynch ran Fidelity’s Magellan® Fund (1977–1990). During his tenure, he earned a reputation as a top performer, increasing assets under management from $18 million to $14 billion. He beat the S&P 500 in all but two of those years. He averaged annual returns of 29% which means that $1 grew to more than $27.

Additionally, Lynch has authored several top-selling books on investing, including One Up on Wall Street and Beating the Street. He has a plain-spoken manner and offers wisdom on investing that can help you become a better investor.

To become a successful investor, you really need to “have faith that 10 years, 20 years, 30 years from now common stocks are the place to be”, according to Lynch. “If you believe in that, you should have some money in equity funds.”

Yet, “there will still be declines”, Lynch says. “It might be tomorrow. It might be a year from now. Who knows when it’s going to happen? The question is: Are you ready—do you have the stomach for this?”

Long term, the stock market has been a very good place for investors to employ their money and capital. But whether the market will be 30% higher or lower in 2 years from now…nobody knows. “But more people have lost money waiting for corrections and anticipating corrections than in the actual corrections”, according to Lynch. “I mean, trying to predict market highs and lows is not productive.”

“In the stock market, the most important organ is the stomach. It’s not the brain.” Peter Lynch

Theoretically, in Lynch’s opinion, the individual investor has an edge versus the professional in finding winning companies (“10-baggers”) that will go up 4- or 10- or 20-fold. They have the opportunity to see breakthroughs, company’s fundamentals get better, and analyze companies way ahead of most people. That’s an edge and you need an edge on something to find the hidden gems.

“The problem with most individual investors is people have so many biases. They won’t look at a railroad, an oil company, a steel company. They’re only going to look at companies growing 40% a year. They won’t look at turnarounds. Or companies with unions.” Thus, individual investors miss great opportunities in overlooked industries or unjustly beaten down companies to chase hot growth stocks.

“But my system for over 30 years has been this: When stocks are attractive, you buy them. Sure, they can go lower. I’ve bought stocks at $12 that went to $2, but then they later went to $30.” Peter Lynch

“You have to really be agnostic” to pick winners and to invest in a company poised for a rebound, according to Lynch.

“Stocks aren’t lottery tickets. Behind every stock is a company. If the company does well, over time the stocks do well.” Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch’s eight simple investing principles for long term investors are:

  1. Know what you own – Few individual investors actually do their research. And, almost every investor is guilty of jumping into a stock they know very little about.
  2. It’s futile to predict the economy and interest rates (so don’t waste time trying) – The U.S. economy is an extraordinarily complex system. Trying to time the market is futile. Set up a financial plan that allocates your assets based on your risk tolerance, so that you can sleep at night.
  3. You have plenty of time to identify and recognize exceptional companies – You don’t need to immediately jump into the hot stock. There’s plenty of time to do your research first.
  4. Avoid long shots – Lynch states that he was 0-for-25 in investing in companies that had no revenue but a great story. Make sure the risk-reward trade-off on an unproven company is worth it.
  5. Good management is very important; good businesses matter more – “Go for a business that any idiot can run – because sooner or later, any idiot is probably going to run it.”
  6. Be flexible and humble, and learn from mistakes – “In this business, if you’re good, you’re right six times out of 10. You’re never going to be right nine times out of 10.” You’re going to be wrong. Diversification and the ability to honestly analyze your mistakes are your best tools to minimize the damage.
  7. Before you make a purchase, you should be able to explain why you’re buying – You should be able to explain your thesis in three sentences or less. And in terms an 11-year-old could understand. Once this simply stated thesis starts breaking down, it’s time to sell.
  8. There’s always something to worry about. – There are plenty of world events for investors to fear, but past investors have survived a Great Depression, 911 terrorist attack, two world wars, an oil crisis, 2007 financial crisis, and double-digit inflation. Always remember, if your worst fears come true, there’ll be a heck of a lot more to worry about than some stock market losses.

Finally, in the words of Peter Lynch…”You can lose money in the short term, but you need the long term to make money.”

References:

  1. https://investinganswers.com/articles/51-peter-lynch-quotes-empower-your-investing
  2. https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/investing-ideas/peter-lynch-investment-strategy
  3. https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/05/21/how-peter-lynch-destroyed-the-market.aspx
  4. https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/investing-ideas/peter-lynch-investment-strategy

Price Line vs. Earnings Line

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“A quick way to tell if a stock is overpriced is to compare the price line to the earnings line. If you bought familiar growth companies – such as Shoney’s, The Limited, or Marriott – when the stock price fell well below the earnings line, and sold them when the stock price rose dramatically above it, the chances are you’d do pretty well.” Peter Lynch

As the former head of Fidelity’s flagship Magellan Fund, Peter Lynch produced an annualized rate of return of 29.2% over his 13-year stint at the helm. This track record has arguably placed him as the best mutual fund manager of all time.

In his best-selling book, “One Up On Wall Street,” Lynch revealed a powerful charting tool, called the “Peter Lynch chart,” that greatly simplified his investment decisions. This simple graph plots the stock price against its “earnings line,” a theoretical price equal to 15 times the earnings per share.

When a stock trades well below its earnings line, you should buy, according to Lynch’s theory. When it rises above its earnings line, you should sell. For example, the Wal-Mart Stores (ticker: WMT ) share-price line fell below the Lynch line at about $55 in March 2010. It didn’t climb back over the Lynch line until June 2012, when shares were $67.50. Had you bought the first crossover and sold the second, you would have gained $12.50 a share, or about 23%.

The idea behind this technique is simple. Lynch believe that mature, stable companies are worth roughly 15 times their annual earnings. And over the last 135 years, this has proven to be the mean valuation of the S&P 500 index.

This is known as a the P/E ratio. It is merely the price of the stock divided by its earnings per share. The resulting multiple represents how many times you are paying for last year’s earnings at today’s stock price.

All things being equal, the lower the number the better. Low P/E ratios mean that you are getting more earnings for your investment dollar. And since most large cap stocks eventually trade for at least 15 times earnings, you are more likely to see your shares appreciate as they return to the 15 P/E level.

This simple idea was the basis of Lynch’s investment approach and the reason he created the chart whichconsists of only two lines. The first is the stock price. The second is the hypothetical stock price if it were to trade at a P/E of 15 (the earnings line).

It is a well-known fact among experienced investors that a stock’s price follows its earnings. Over multi-year periods, stock prices move in sync with changing company earnings.

But over the short term, stock prices are unpredictable. This is what creates valuable opportunities for savvy and patience investors.

Furthermore, a good rule of thumb is that the P/E ratio of any fairly valued company will equal its earnings growth rate. A company with a P/E ratio that is half its growth rate is very positive. A company with a P/E ratio that is twice its growth rate is deemed negative.

Thirteen attributes you should investigate for in a stock with the potential for 10x growth, according to Peter Lynch:

  1. The company name is dull or ridiculous.
  2. The company does something dull and boring
  3. The company does something disagreeable or disgusting.
  4. The company is a spin-off like the Baby Bells.
  5. Institutions don’t own it and analysts don’t follow it.
  6. There are negative rumors about it, like Waste Management.
  7. There is something depressing about it such as SRB, which provides burial services.
  8. That it is a company in a no growth industry, since it’s in a non competitive business.
  9. It has a niche such as drug companies.
  10. People have to keep buying the products such as drugs, food and cigarettes.
  11. The company is the user of technology such as Domino’s.
  12. The company insiders are buyers of the stock.
  13. The company is buying back its shares.

Best stocks to avoid is the hottest stock in the hottest industry. Negative growth industries do not attract competitors. Additionally, avoid companies with excessive debt on its balance sheet and invest in companies that have little or no debt.

The debt must always be lower than the equity. If the company has a debt lower than 50% of the equity, it is considered to be in a good financial position. If it is lower than 25%, it’s excellent. When the debt is above 75% of the equity, it is recommended to avoid that company.

References:

  1. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/peter-lynch-earned-29-13-231636799.html
  2. https://tofinancialfreedom.co/en/one-up-on-wall-street-summary-book/
  3. https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2021/04/16/lynchs-one-up-on-wall-street-inspired-screening-strategy/