Tag Archives: Stocks

Uncertain Financial Markets

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“Don’t gamble. Take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up; then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.” Will Rogers

Since the financial crisis of 2008-2009, the U.S. stock market has been on a long-term uptrend. In the crisis’ aftermath, a nearly 11-year bull rally emerged from its ruins becoming the longest-ever uptrend in Wall Street history.

And, the American economy is equally robust as consumer spending remains strong and as the unemployment rate (3.5%) remains at the lowest in 50 years. Despite low employment, Federal Fund interest rates still sit near historical lows and the 10-year Treasury yields only 1.8%.

Financial Crisis

Bringing back painful financial memories for investors, the financial crisis of 2008-2009 wreaked havoc on the stock market. During the crisis, the S&P 500 index (SPX) lost 38.5% of its value in 2008, making it the worst year since the nadir of the Great Recession in 1931.

Today, many economists and financial industry pundits conclude that global economies will face an increasingly uncertain and potentially volatile future. Those future concerns range a gambit of political, geopolitical, economic and socio-political issues.

The uncertainties and concerns include the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, potential turmoil in the Middle East, growing fear regarding cross border spread of the Novel Corona virus, and the growth concerns regarding the economies of the rest of the world economies.

Investing in an Uncertain Environment

“Never under estimate the man who over estimates himself…he may not be wrong all the time.” Charlie Munger

When it comes to investing in an uncertain environment, it is difficult to know what actions to take. But, nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen next in the markets or can predict the direction with certainty of the global economy. Despite the many self proclaimed stock picking experts who promote their ability to forecast the markets and abilities to select the next Amazon-like stock, it important to always remember that no one knows what will happen in or can accurately forecast the future.

Recently, Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, shared his thoughts about investing in general and regarding Elon Musk and Tesla, specifically. He commented that Elon is “peculiar and he may overestimate himself, but he may not be wrong all the time…”.

Additionally, Munger commented that he “…would never buy it [Tesla stock], and [he] would never sell it short.” Prudent investors would be wise to heed Munger’s advice and be concerned not only about potential rewards but, more importantly, also concerned about potential risks investing in hot, high flying stocks.

In Munger’s view, there exist too much “wretched excess” in the market and investors are taking on too much unnecessary risk. He worries that that there are dark clouds looming on the horizon. And, he believes markets and investors are ill-prepared to weather the coming market “trouble”.

References:

  1. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wretched-excess-means-theres-lots-of-troubles-coming-warns-berkshire-hathaways-charlie-munger-2020-02-12

AT&T CEO Interview on CNBC Squawk Box

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Friday morning from the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, CNBC Squawk Box co-anchors Joe Kernen and Becky Quick interviewed AT&T CEO and Chairman, Randall Stephenson.

In this far ranging early morning interview, Randall discussed the current and future outlook of the large cap communications and entertainment company he leads.  Effectively, he stated that he was very bullish on the projected economic output in 2020 for the company.

He stressed that the top priority for the AT&T was to pay down the massive debt incurred from its acquisition of Time Warner.  He commented that the goal was to bring down debt to a ratio of 2.5X debt-to-EBITDA and this past year, they successfully paid off $30 billion in debt.  Additionally, Randall shared that AT&T realized a 45% total shareholder return in calendar year 2019.

Media Business

Overall, he commented that AT&T’s media business, renamed Warner Entertainment, is doing well.  In the short term, they expect to roll-out HBO Max in May 2020 which will feature Warner Bros. extensive inventory of content, including the TV series “Friends” and “The Big Bang Theory”. and content from Turner’s networks.

Currently, premium HBO streaming has approximately 30 million subscribers.  Those subscribers will automatically convert to HBO Max once the it comes on-line. He expects that HBO Max will grow to 50 million subscribers.

Financials

Activist shareholder, Elliot Management, bought a large stake in AT&T back in September 2019 and criticized the management and board leadership, and the direction of the company.  Elliot Management in a letter wrote that AT&T’s stock could potentially surge to above $60 a share by 2021 if the company “increased strategic focus, improved operational efficiency” and “enhanced leadership and oversight.”

Furthermore, Elliot Management questioned the company’s succession plan of tagging Warner Media’s CEO and AT&T COO, John Stankey, as CEO Randall Stephenson’s heir apparent.  They expressed concerns with Stankey’s decision making. his lack of experience operating and communications and entertainment company, and his ability to manage the conglomerate.

Bottom line is AT&T’s financial future appears highly dependent on the success of HBO Max growing paid subscriptions, management paying down the high level of corporate debt on its balance sheet, and developing a coherent strategy that can effectively discover and employ the synergies of AT&T’s diverse assets and enterprises.

Sources:  https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/07/att-ceo-randall-stephenson-on-promise-to-remain-ceo-through-2020.html?&qsearchterm=randall%20stephenson

Passive Investing

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The ‘father of passive investing’, Burton Malkiel, Princeton University professor emeritus of economics and author of the famous investing book, “A Random Walk Down Wall Street“, believes that most investors should invest passively. This idea is embodied by exchange-traded funds that track major stock market indexes, such as the S&P 500, and passive mutual funds.

Malkiel’s theory is that investors are better off buying a broad universe of stocks, index funds, and minimizing fees rather than paying an active manager who may not beat the market. Index funds, also known as passive funds, are structured to invest in the same securities that make up a given index, and seek to match the performance of the index they track, whether positive or negative. As the name implies, no manager or management team actively picks stocks or makes buy and sell decisions.

In contrast, active funds attempt to beat whichever index serves as the fund’s benchmark, although — and this is important — there is no guarantee they will do so. Active managers conduct research, closely monitor market trends and employ a variety of trading strategies to achieve return. But this active involvement comes at a price. Actively-managed funds typically have significantly higher fees and expenses.

A 2016 study by S&P Dow Jones Indices showed that about 90 percent of active stock managers failed to beat their index benchmark targets over the previous one-year, five-year and 10-year periods; fees explain a significant part of that under performance.

Vanguard’s John ‘Jack’ Bogle – Stay the Course

Many industry leaders, including Vanguard’s John ‘Jack’ Bogle, who pioneered index funds, were influenced by Malkiel’s theory on passive investing.

John ‘Jack’ Bogle

Jack Bogle, who founded the pioneering investment firm Vanguard in 1975, is widely regarded as the father of index investing. Index investing is a strategy that functions best when investors sit on their hands for decades. This strategy is far removed from the thrill and excitement of trying to beat the market by picking individual stocks — but one that research says works.

Over the decades, Jack Bogle’s philosophy has acquired a plethora of devout investors whom follow his teachings. His followers, known as the Bogleheads, embrace long-term commitments to broad, boring investments. Bogleheads choose investments that are low-cost index mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

These low-cost index mutual funds and ETFs are designed to mimic their respective benchmark stock or bond markets, not beat them. Bogleheads’ core belief— stay the course — is so essential to their investment strategy. Bogleheads’ key tips for beginners are:

Early investing is better than perfect investing

Don’t get overwhelmed with your options and let decision paralysis keep you from investing sooner. The magic of compound interest is where your money grows that much faster because you keep earning interest on your interest. To illustrate the strategy, a person who starts investing small amounts in their early 20s will be better off than someone who starts later and invests larger amounts later to catch up.

Stay in the market; Don’t try to time the market

For Bogleheads, the best way to invest is through passively-managed index funds like those pioneered by Vanguard. That way, while your investment will rise and fall with the market, you’re not a victim to any particular company’s misfortune.

Investing in passively-managed funds is a core Boglehead tenet — and research shows the strategy is a sound one. The majority of actively-managed funds have underperformed the stock market for nearly a decade, according to an annual S&P Dow Jones Indices report. In other words, trying to pick winners doesn’t work; simply riding out the market’s ups and downs does.

Don’t peek; Set it and forget it

It is advised that investors check their investments a few times a year—but they shouldn’t react to market volatility or short-term corrections. The key to passive investing is to “set it and forget it”— that is, once you know what you’re investing in, leave it alone, let the market do its thing and be patient.

Over the past decade, passive investment has been closing the gap on active management. Yet, the ‘father of passive investing’ believes there are still too many investors who are not taking advantage of passive investing. Malkiel believes strongly that “…[passive investing] works. It’s the best thing for individual investors to do for the core of their portfolio.”

Keep it simple

In a nutshell, the best approach is a simple, low cost, diversified portfolio of index funds that matches the market return. Don’t try to beat the market—ignore hot tips and check your returns infrequently.

References:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/02/burton-malkiel-says-his-passive-investing-idea-was-called-garbage.html
    https://money.com/theres-a-super-secret-conference-dedicated-to-investing-legend-jack-bogle-heres-what-its-like-on-the-inside/
    https://us.spindices.com/documents/spiva/spiva-us-year-end-2016.pdf

10 Rules for Financial Success – Barron’s

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“Wealth isn’t about how much money you make – wealth is about how much money you save and invest.”

The true measure of financial success isn’t how much money you make—it’s how much you keep. That’s a function of how well you’re able to save money, protect it, and invest it over the long term.

Sadly, most Americans are lousy at this.

Even after a decade of steady economic expansion and record-breaking stock markets, almost two-thirds of earners would be hard-pressed to cover an unexpected $1,000 expense—a medical bill, car repair, or busted furnace—and more than 75% don’t save enough or invest skillfully enough to meet modest long-term retirement goals, according to Bankrate.com.

Even wealthy families aren’t getting it right: 70% lose wealth by their second generation, and 90% by their third. “Shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations,” as a saying often attributed to Andrew Carnegie goes.

What’s at the root of these bleak data? Stagnant salaries amid rising costs of health care, education, housing, and other big-ticket necessities have put a major strain on folks of all ages. But advisors point to a deeper issue: an almost universal lack of financial literacy.

“This is a much bigger problem than most people are aware of,” says Spuds Powell, managing director at Kayne Anderson Rudnick Wealth Management in Los Angeles. “I’m constantly amazed at how common it is for clients, even sophisticated ones, to be lacking in financial literacy.”

The ten rules for financial success are:

  1. Set goals
  2. Know what you’ve got and know what you need
  3. Save systematically
  4. Invest in your retirement plan
  5. Invest for growth
  6. Avoid bad debt
  7. Don’t overpay for anything
  8. Protect yourself
  9. Keep it simple
  10. Seek unbiased advice

— Read on www.barrons.com/articles/10-rules-for-financial-success-51558742435

Don’t Just Save…Value Invest

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Make the most of your money and that means investing.

For many Americans, investing can appear to be a frightening gamble. Memories of the 2008 financial crisis devastated investment accounts with paper losses more than ten years ago create the reluctance among many to invest.

However, in order to beat inflation and ensure that your savings will work for you long term, it’s crucial to invest in growth-oriented investments such as the stock market. Whether through an employer-sponsored 401(k) plan, a traditional or Roth IRA, an individual brokerage account or somewhere else, to build wealth and financial security, individuals must invest in the equity stock market. And, it is important to start investing as early as you can to give your money as much time as possible to grow.

Valuation matters, and it matters a lot.

Value investing rarely performs well in the short run. This is especially true during strong bull markets. Popular non-GARP (growth at a reasonable price) stocks are likely to be overvalued whereas unpopular value stocks will be where the best bargains can be found.

Consequently, being a value investor means being a patient investor and implies that an investor have a long-term mindset. Value investing rarely produces short-term results, because value investing usually also implies investing in out of favor stocks. This unpopularity is often why they have become bargains.

Moreover, value stocks are typically inexpensive for good reasons. Therefore, we need to ascertain whether the discounted stock price is justified or perhaps an overreaction by investors. These judgments can help us determine the level of risk we are facing and if we are being adequately compensated for taking it by the low valuations or not.

Additionally, in the long run value stocks often dramatically outperform and very often do so by taking on significantly less risk than other strategies such as momentum, or in many cases even growth. This is attributed to the fact that the risk is being mitigated by low valuation (price) and margin of safety.

As a result, the key benefit of value investing is the valuation risk mitigation element. Research demonstrates that stocks that are properly valued, or undervalued, are more defensive in a volatile or bear market.

Margin of Safety

Margin of safety is the difference between the intrinsic value of a stock against its prevailing market price. Intrinsic value is the actual worth of a company’s asset, or the present value of an asset when adding up the total discounted future income generated:

  • Deep value investing – buying stocks in seriously undervalued businesses. The main goal is to search for significant mismatches between current stock prices and the intrinsic value of these stocks. This kind of investing requires a large amount of margin to invest with and takes lots of guts, as it is risky.
  • Growth at reasonable price investing – choosing companies that have positive growth trading rates which are somehow below the intrinsic value.

Margin of safety serves as a cushion against errors in calculation. Since fair value is difficult to accurately predict, safety margins protect investors from poor decisions and downturns in the market.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/07/how-much-money-youd-have-if-you-invested-500-dollars-a-month-since-2009.html

The No. 1 secret to long-term investment success – MarketWatch

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The key to long-term success is to pick a good strategy and then establish a lifetime commitment to maintain that strategy regardless of what’s going on at the moment.

In the short term and the medium term, the market is unpredictable and seemingly random. But over the long term (I’m talking decades), it’s easier to figure out and predict.

If there’s a “secret” to long-term success, it’s managing your expectations.

— Read on www.marketwatch.com/story/the-no-1-secret-to-long-term-investment-success-2020-01-21

The 5 Step Guide to Avoid Making Investment Mistakes

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“The only man who never makes a mistake is the man who never does anything.”

If you apply this famous quote by Theodore Roosevelt to investing, the easiest way to avoid mistakes while investing is by not investing at all. But, that is the biggest investment mistake one can make.

Investing is important to build wealth in the long term. However, just investing is not enough as investing right is equally important.
— Read on www.entrepreneur.com/article/343454

Stocks Have Outperform Other Asset Classes

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For the next decade, which asset class among stocks, bonds, real estate, cash, gold/metals, or bitcoin/cryptocurrency, would be the best vehicle to invest money for the highest long-term total returns?

Since 1890, the S&P 500 (or its predecessor indexes) has outpaced inflation at a 6.3% annualized rate (when including dividends). Long-term U.S. Treasury Bonds have produced an annualized inflation-adjusted total return of 2.7%. Finally, U.S. real estate has produced an annualized return above inflation of just 0.4%, as judged by the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index and the consumer-price index.

Yet, the U.S. stock and bond markets are currently overvalued, and it is plausible that real estate will do better than either stocks and bonds over the next decade.

According to almost all standard valuation metrics, U.S. equity stocks currently are somewhere between overvalued overvalued. Furthermore, you can only partially explain away this overvaluation because of low interest rates.

Given stocks’ overvaluation, it’s entirely possible that stocks will over the next decade have the potential to fall short of their historical averages.

To the contrary, real estate has been relatively undervalued and historically less volatile than the stock market—a lot less as measured by the standard deviation of annual returns.

As a result, real estate has proven to be less riskier than equities. Yet, the misperception that real estate is riskier has been derived from the leverage typically used when purchasing real estate adds inherent risk to investing in real estate. Essentially, the risk for real estate comes from the leverage, not real estate inherently.

If there is a major stock bear market in the next decade, real estate might be the better investment just because of it’s lower risk and relatively undervalued.

Sources:

  1. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-single-best-investment-for-the-next-decade-2019-08-08
  2. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-bulls-are-telling-themselves-a-lot-of-lies-about-this-market-2019-06-04

Paying Yourself First

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“Why would you wake up in the morning, leave your family, not do what you want with your day, go to work all day long for 8, 9, 10 hours a day, commute back home, get up and do it all over again? Why would you do this 5 days a week, 4 weeks out of the month, 12 months out of the year? Why would you do all that to earn money and not pay yourself first? Most people pay everyone else before themselves: the government, their creditors, and their bill collectors. Everybody else gets paid first and then if anything’s left over, then they pay themselves. That system stinks and is designed for you to fail financially. If that’s the system you’re using right now, and you don’t have money, that’s why. The odds are set up against you. It’s too tough for you to get rich if you’re paying everybody else first. You need to change this. You need to completely redirect your income so the first person who gets paid is you.” David Bach, The Automatic Millionaire

Paying yourself first is often referred to as “the golden rule of personal finance.” Paying yourself first means saving before you do anything else with your paycheck, like paying bills, buying groceries, or shopping. You allocate a percentage of your pay or income to a savings or investment account. Paying yourself first prioritizes savings and investing, but not at the expense of necessary expenses like housing, utilities and insurance.

Prioritize savings

If you deposit money directly into savings or brokerage account every time you get paid, you may be less likely to spend it on your everyday expenses. Following this system can help you foster a habit of saving that will add up over time and help you be prepared for retirement or unexpected expenses.

A good target is to save 10 – 15% of your take-home pay and put it toward your savings and investment goals. Saving even $125 or $150 a month is one small step you can take to help you get into the habit.

The first bill you pay each month should be to yourself.

By paying yourself first, you make saving a top priority. You make it a priority to pay your savings and investment accounts first, before making the first monthly payment or paying the first bill.

Most people say they don’t save enough money for retirement, or invest enough, or save a big enough emergency fund, because they don’t have the money to save more. That’s why personal finance advice says that you should pay into those savings and brokerage accounts first. Treat it like a bill. Approach it the same way that you treat your phone bill or your electric bill.

Most people wait and only save what’s left over after paying bills or spending on other discretionary items—that’s paying yourself last. Conversely, before you pay your bills, before you buy groceries, before you do anything else, set aside a portion of your income to save. Put the money into your 401(k), your Roth IRA, or your savings account.

Automate Your Savings

A quick way to begin paying yourself first is by setting up an automatic transfer to a savings or retirement account every time you receive a direct deposit, like a paycheck.

Most people wait and only save what’s left over after paying bills or spending on other discretionary items—that’s paying yourself last. Conversely, before you pay your bills, before you buy groceries, before you do anything else, set aside a portion of your income to save. Put the money into your 401(k), your Roth IRA, or your savings account.
Paying yourself first makes saving money and investing in assets a priority without sacrificing other financial needs and obligations. No matter what your level of earning or responsibilities are, you can afford to pay yourself first with a few small changes.

Most people wait and only save what’s left over after paying bills or spending on other discretionary items—that’s paying yourself last. Conversely, before you pay your bills, before you buy groceries, before you do anything else, set aside a portion of your income to save. Put the money into your 401(k), your Roth IRA, or your savings account.
Most people wait and only save what’s left over after paying bills or spending on other discretionary items—that’s paying yourself last. Conversely, before you pay your bills, before you buy groceries, before you do anything else, set aside a portion of your income to save. Put the money into your 401(k), your Roth IRA, or your savings account.

Most people wait and only save what’s left over after paying bills or spending on other discretionary items—that’s paying yourself last. Conversely, before you pay your bills, before you buy groceries, before you do anything else, set aside a portion of your income to save. Put the money into your 401(k), your Roth IRA, or your savings account.

Most people wait and only save what’s left over after paying bills or spending on other discretionary items—that’s paying yourself last. Conversely, before you pay your bills, before you buy groceries, before you do anything else, set aside a portion of your income to save. Put the money into your 401(k), your Roth IRA, or your savings account.

Paying yourself first should really be called investing in yourself first.

7 Rules for Wealth: #4 Retirement Cost-Cutting

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Are you paying 1% for portfolio management? Why?

You want to be invested in a collection of index funds with an average expense ratio no worse than 0.1%. That’s easy to do. Fidelity has index mutual funds with 0% fees. Or you could easily put together a small, well-balanced assortment of exchange-traded funds costing 0.03% to 0.06%. (Check out the Forbes Best ETFs for Investors ranking.)

Or you could put all your money in the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund at 0.07%.
— Read on www.forbes.com/sites/baldwin/2020/01/04/7-rules-for-wealth-4-retirement-cost-cutting/