Delta Variant Infecting Unvaccinated

Only about 46 percent of the U.S. population is vaccinated. Politico

In the U.S. Midwest and South, the highly transmissible Delta variant is spreading quickly among the unvaccinated population, according to federal health officials.

But many people who are not vaccinated are also resistant to wearing masks and are ignoring recommendations to avoid crowded indoor spaces, heightening the virus spread. Only about 46 percent of the U.S. population is vaccinated, and the number of doses administered has fallen, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The federal government will try to convince hesitant Americans to get vaccinated by communicating the benefits of the shots. But, President Biden’s team is not confident that a new campaign will change hearts and minds of the reluctant.

Additionally, the Biden administration acknowledged that the U.S. will not reach its goal of having 70% of adults vaccinated by the July 4th Holiday.

Delta variant

New Covid-19 infections have increased by more than 50 percent over the last two weeks in under-vaccinated states. Many of the cases are tied to the Delta variant, which the CDC says now accounts for one-fifth of new infections nationwide. The Delta variant, which was first identified in India, is more infectious than previous coronavirus strains.

“Based on the data that we have right now, the Delta variant is more transmissible than Alpha,” the strain that has predominated in the U.S. this spring, said Summer Galloway, a senior adviser at CDC.

The CDC is currently in the midst of conducting studies to pin down just how well the current vaccines protect against Delta and what impact it has on the unvaccinated population, particularly children. Additionally, the CDC is studying whether the Delta variant leads to more severe infections in undervaccinated communities.

Ending COVID-19

The hope was that once the nation reached herd immunity, the virus would die out. As a result of the Delta variant, the current level of vaccine immunity is insufficient to end the pandemic in the United States.

The higher the contagion, the larger share of the population must be immune. To end the pandemic, a majority of the unvaccinated in the United States must gain immunity, and the best way is through vaccines

The good news is that recent data shows the Pfizer vaccine is nearly 90 percent effective against Delta, making vaccination one of the most effective ways to stop the variant’s march across the U.S.

The CDC continues to encourage people who are unvaccinated to wear masks and avoid crowded indoor gatherings.

Dr. Michael Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s World Emergencies Programme, said the Delta strain should make the world “more cautious, more diligent, and more dedicated to” following health protocols.


References:

  1. https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/26/white-house-vaccination-delta-variant-496343
  2. https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/06/25/who-urges-fully-vaccinated-people-to-continue-wearing-masks-as-delta-variant-spreads-but-no-word-from-cdc/amp/
  3. https://khn.org/morning-breakout/perspectives-delta-variant-spreading-rapidly-among-unvaccinated-steps-to-avoid-another-pandemic/

COVID Vaccine is 100% Effective in Kids Ages 12 to 15

Pfizer said its coronavirus vaccine was 100% effective in preventing COVID-19 in children ages 12 to 15.

In participants aged 12-15 years old with or without prior evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine BNT162b2 demonstrated 100% efficacy and robust antibody responses. The results exceeded those reported in trial of vaccinated 16-25 year old participants in an earlier analysis, and was well tolerated, according to Pfizer. The trial enrolled 2,260 participants in the United States.

There were 18 confirmed COVID-19 infections observed in the placebo group and no confirmed infections in the group that received the vaccine, the company said. That resulted in a vaccine efficacy of 100%. The vaccine was also well-tolerated, with side effects generally consistent with those seen in adults.

Vaccinating children is crucial to ending the pandemic, public health officials and infectious disease experts say. Children make up around 20% of the U.S. population, according to government data. Between 70% and 85% of the U.S. population needs to be vaccinated against Covid to achieve herd immunity, experts say, and some adults may refuse to get the shots.

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said the company plans to submit the new vaccine data to the Food and Drug Administration and other regulators “as soon as possible,” with the hope that kids in the age group will be able to get vaccinated before the next school year.

All participants in the trial will continue to be monitored for long-term protection and safety for an additional two years after their second dose.


References:

  1. https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-biontech-announce-positive-topline-results-pivotal
  2. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/31/covid-vaccine-pfizer-says-shot-is-100percent-effective-in-kids-ages-12-to-15.html

Which COVID Vaccine

The best COVID-19 vaccine for you is the vaccine you can get in your arm the soonest. 

There are three vaccines approved for emergency use by the Food and Drug Administration and some people are tempted to shop around. Some people may want the convenience of the Johnson & Johnson single-dose shot and its low rate of side effects. Others may be interested in the extremely high efficacy of the Pfizer and Moderna two-shot mRNA vaccines.

Which Covid vaccine is best for you? It's the one you can get the soonest.

Bottom line: You should get the vaccine that’s available soonest. All three vaccines approved for emergency use have been shown to be safe and effective against severe complications of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

In clinical trials, all three vaccines prevented hospitalizations and death, the worst outcomes of the virus. While these were not the primary outcomes measured (symptomatic infections were), this effectiveness continues to play out in post-vaccination studies. Very few people who have been fully vaccinated are getting sick and even fewer are hospitalized.

All three vaccines produce side effects in patients — but not all patients. Although, there are slight differences in side effects. People who get the J&J vaccine tend to experience fewer of them, but each vaccine produces side effects, mostly mild, in some patients. These side effects are short-lived.

The most common side effect is pain, redness or swelling at the injection site. Other people experienced tiredness, headache, muscle pain, chills, fever or nausea. But most of these side effects were mild to moderate and went away quickly.

Remember, these side effects are a sign that your body is reacting to the vaccine and building immunity to the virus (if you don’t have side effects, that doesn’t mean the vaccine isn’t working), according to Dr. Andrea Klemes, the Chief Medical Officer of MDVIP. They’re a small price to pay to get that protection. They’re also rarer in the general population than they were in clinical trials participants with a higher frequency after the second dose. About 372 out of every million administered doses of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines lead to a non-serious reaction report, according to the journal Nature. The most frequently reported side effects are headache (22.4%), fatigue (16.5%) and dizziness (16.5%), according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The bottom line: You’ve waited this long for the vaccine; you shouldn’t shop around when the opportunity to get the vaccine presents itself. The faster everyone gets vaccinated, the faster we will be able to return to normal.


References:

  1. https://www.mdvip.com/about-mdvip/blog/which-covid-vaccine-should-you-get
  2. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7008e3.htm

What to Expect after Getting a COVID-19 Vaccination

Adverse reactions are usually mild to moderate in intensity and resolve within a few days following receipt of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, according to the CDC. The most common adverse reactions reported after vaccination in clinical studies included:

  • Pain at injection site (92.0%)
  • Fatigue (70.0%)
  • Headache (64.7%)
  • Muscle pain (51.5%)
  • Joint pain (46.4%)
  • Chills (45.4%)
  • Nausea/vomiting (23.0%)
  • Axillary swelling and tenderness of the vaccination arm (19.8%)
  • Fever (15.5%)
  • Injection site swelling (14.7%)
  • Injection site redness (10.0%)

It takes time for your body to build protection after any vaccination. COVID-19 vaccines that require 2 shots may not protect you until about 2 weeks after your second shot.

After receiving the COVID-19 vaccination, the side effects you may experience are normal signs that your body is building protection and they should go away in a few days.


References:

  1. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/expect/after.html

COVID-19, One Year Later. Here’s What We’ve Learned.

“The vaccines are our best hope to contain the virus; and while the CDC’s guidance may change based on new evidence, you should follow their current guidance: Keep wearing your mask, practice social distancing and wash your hands.”  Dr. Andrea Klemes

By Dr. Andrea Klemes, MDVIP’s Chief Medical Officer

It was March 11 last year when the World Health Organization first announced that the coronavirus had reached pandemic stage. At the time, there were 118,000 cases in 114 countries. A year later and there are more than 114 million cases and 2.5 million deaths worldwide.

In the year since the pandemic officially started, doctors, researchers and the American public have learned a lot about the virus. We know how it spreads — through droplets and in the air; we know how it likely doesn’t spread — on surfaces (you should still wash your hands regularly); we know the virus isn’t seasonal like flu – it didn’t go away during the summer; and we know that we can fight it, both through prevention and treatment.

Speaking of treatment, we’ve learned a lot about what works in the fight against COVID-19, the condition caused by the coronavirus. The anti-inflammatory steroid drug dexamethasone, for example, works in many patients on supplemental oxygen or ventilators. Antibodies — either from convalescent plasma or man-made ones from monoclonal antibody treatments — seem to keep some patients from more severe illness. These treatments have been granted emergency use authorization by the Food and Drug Administration.

Even simple things, like turning patients prone (lying face down) have turned out to be lifesaving for many people hospitalized with the disease.

But there’s still much we don’t know. And there’s still a lot of misinformation and myths swirling around 12 months after the pandemic began. I thought it would be helpful to recap some key learnings.

Vaccines are here, but the virus isn’t going away any time soon.

See the source image
It’s hard to believe that in a little less than a year scientists created numerous vaccines to combat the coronavirus. In fact, the Food and Drug Administration approved a third vaccine last week — and this one, from Johnson & Johnson, is a single-dose vaccine that’s easier to transport and store. It should help vaccines become more widely available in the next couple of months.

If you’ve already gotten your vaccine, your behavior shouldn’t change — that’s the advice of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That’s because the vaccines prevent severe illness from infection. You may still be able to get the virus and spread it.

This advice may change. Promising but unpublished studies suggest that vaccinated individuals carry lower viral loads and may be at lower risk to spread the virus. If you’re thinking, why get the vaccine if I still have to wear a mask? Get the vaccine when it’s your turn. The vaccines are our best hope to contain the virus; and while the CDC’s guidance may change based on new evidence, you should follow their current guidance: Keep wearing your mask, practice social distancing and wash your hands.

One rule that has changed for those who have been vaccinated: You may not have to quarantine after exposure if you meet certain criteria and it’s been more than two weeks since your last dose.

Eating at a restaurant increases your risk of getting the virus.
We love eating at restaurants, but many are poorly ventilated and crowded with people. Even at reduced capacity, the CDC rates eating inside at a restaurant to be higher risk than other activities. A study from six months ago suggested that COVID-19 positive patients were twice as likely as those who tested negative to have eaten at a restaurant in the two weeks leading up to their illness.

It’s possible that people who eat at restaurants during the pandemic take other risks that increase their chances of getting the virus, but there are also early studies that track breakouts to restaurant eaters.

It’s still safer to get your food to go — or eat outside away from other diners.

So does gathering with your family.
Just like eating out, there are plenty of studies showing the transmission of the virus when families get together. Among adults with COVID-19, 42 percent reported close contact with a person with COVID-19 — and most of those close contacts were with family members.

In one case study from last summer, a single COVID-positive adolescent on a family vacation with three different families spread the illness to 11 other family members. There are dozens of cluster studies like these from contact tracing efforts — weddings, reunions, holiday parties, barbecues and even more intimate gatherings. Getting together with family without proper protocols can result in spreading events.

Even without gatherings, household members are often the point of contact for new COVID cases. Household transmission of this coronavirus is 16.6 percent higher than with past pandemics like SARS and MERS.

To be fair, more infections have been traced to other kinds of activities than seeing family — from workplaces to prisons to assisted living facilities to colleges. But you shouldn’t let your guard down when you’re around your family.

Six feet of distance probably isn’t enough.
Early guidance from the CDC defined close contact as spending 15 minutes or more within six feet of a person infected with COVID-19. The six-foot distance was based on COVID transmission from droplets, which we emit when we talk, sneeze or cough. We’ve been studying viral transmission by droplets since the 1890s.

Of course, there are plenty of studies over the years that suggest droplets can travel further. The problem with COVID is that you can become infected from aerosol transmission — smaller droplets and particles can float in the air for minutes and hours and travel far from the source. Still, the CDC says that most transmission comes from close contact with infected individuals.

As for time, that one’s trickier. Some school systems and employers liberally interpreted the 15 minutes to mean that as long as you kept contact brief, you were okay. But repeated exposure can also result in an infection, which is one reason the CDC changed the guidance last fall to 15 minutes over a 24-hour period. Here’s the bottom line: The more you interact with others and the longer that interaction lasts, the greater your chance of contracting COVID.

The best way to prevent spread is to avoid unnecessary exposure.

Yes, masks help prevent the spread of the virus.
I know a lot of people have had a hard time warming up to face masks. Early in the pandemic, public health officials lacked clear evidence about the effectiveness of masks and hesitated to recommend them. But 12 months later, there’s a raft of evidence that masks (double ply cloth, surgical and N95) reduce the transmission of the coronavirus. In fact, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U.S., which recently published a review of studies about masks and COVID-19 transmission, concluded:

“The preponderance of evidence indicates that mask wearing reduces transmissibility per contact by reducing transmission of infected respiratory particles in both laboratory and clinical contexts.”

Some study highlights:

Masks were 79 percent effective at preventing household transmission, if used by all members of the household before symptoms showed.

The devil is in the details. We know from COVID studies and previous viral studies that masks reduce risk of transmission for the wearer and for the people around them if the wearer is sick.

Double masks may even be better.
One mask works if you wear it correctly. Two might actually be better.

The CDC recently released new masking guidelines based on studies it did to determine how to improve their efficacy. The agency looked at wearing a cloth mask over a medical procedure mask (often called a surgical mask, but not an N95) and whether knotting the ear loops of a medical procedure mask and then tucking in and flattening the extra material close to the face would reduce risk.

Both modifications improved the masks effectiveness. According to the CDC’s experiments, an unknotted medical procedure mask blocked 42 percent of the particles from a simulated cough. A cloth mask blocked 44.3 percent. Knotting the surgical mask alone blocked 63 percent of particles. When the cloth mask was combined with the knotted surgical mask, it blocked 92.5 percent of particles.

The CDC has since updated its recommendations. If you use an N95 or KN95 mask, the agency does not recommend double masking. It also doesn’t recommend doubling up surgical masks.

Testing negative doesn’t mean you stay negative.
This may be one of the hardest things for people to understand. A lot of people get tested after they’re exposed, but you can test negative one day and positive the next, depending on the time from when you were exposed, the course of the infection and the type of test you took.

When you’re exposed to someone with the virus and become infected, symptoms may show a few days after exposure or up to two weeks later. If you test too soon, a test may not pick up the infection. If you’re asymptomatic, a rapid antigen test may not pick up your infection at all. Accuracy is lower in antigen tests than PCR tests, especially in those who aren’t showing symptoms.

That’s why it’s so important to observe CDC guidelines when it comes to testing and exposure. If you’ve been exposed to the virus, the CDC recommends you quarantine for 10 days, provided you remain asymptomatic. You can reduce this time to seven days if you show no symptoms and do not test positive for the virus on day 5 or later.

The new variants are a reason to be vigilant.
The new variants are more than troublesome. Many of them are more communicable and one, the British variant, is looking like it may be more virulent. This is why we need to keep washing our hands, wearing masks and practicing social distancing. And why we should get the vaccine when it’s our turn. Don’t let up now!

With a little extra effort from all of us, I believe we can beat back this virus, and we’re well on the way. We’re better at treating it, and we know how to stop its spread. If enough of us do these things, there’s a chance these variants won’t make the impact that some researchers currently fear.

We may have to take booster shots in the future, but that’s a lot better than where we were a year ago when we had no vaccine, few promising treatments and knew very little about COVID-19.

What a difference a year makes.


Reference:

  1. https://www.mdvip.com/about-mdvip/blog/what-you-need-know-about-coronavirus-or-covid-19

Daily COVID-19 Infections, Hospitalizations and Deaths Declining

COVID-19 Cases Are Dropping Fast. Four reasons: social distancing, seasonality, seroprevalence, and shots.

COVID-19 is in retreat in America. New daily cases have plunged, and hospitalizations are down almost 50 percent in the past month. The reason for the decline range Americans’ good behavior in the past month combined with (mostly) warming weather across the Northern Hemisphere has slowed the pandemic’s growth; at the same time, partial immunity and vaccines have reduced the number of viable bodies that would allow the coronavirus to thrive.

The current decline of COVID-19 is crystal clear.

There has been a five-week downward trend in cases, according to data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The highest 7-day moving average occurred on January 11, 2021 and was 249,048. The current 7-day average is 77,385 cases, which is a 68.9% decline.

Furthermore, the 24.5% decrease in the 7-day average number of daily cases reported compared with the prior week also provides an encouraging sign of recent progress. Even with these declines, however, the 69,165 cases reported on February 17 remains higher than what was seen during either of the first two peaks in the pandemic.

Daily Trends in COVID-19 Cases

The numbers of new hospital admissions of patients with confirmed COVID-19 have decreased from the national peak of 18,006 admissions on January 5, 2021 to 6,841 admissions on February 16 (a 62% decrease). The average number of daily admissions fell by 21.8% compared to the previous week.

Nationally, the number of COVID-19 deaths continue to fluctuate. There has been over 500,000 total COVID-19 deaths reported with 2,601 new deaths reported as of February 23, 2021. The 7-day average number of new deaths decreased by 9% to 2,708** new deaths per day compared to the previous 7-day period.

Why the decline?

Americans’ good behavior in the past month combined with warming weather across the Northern Hemisphere to slow the pandemic’s growth; at the same time, partial immunity and vaccines have reduced the number of viable bodies that allow the coronavirus to thrive.

According to a piece that ran in the Atlantic.:

1. Behavior: Americans finally got on board with wearing a mask and social-distancing thing.

Officials pointed to Google mobility data that demonstrated that Americans withdrew into their homes after the winter holidays and hunkered down during the subsequent spike in cases that grew out of holiday season socializing. New hospital admissions for COVID-19 peaked in the second week of January—another sign that social distancing during the coldest month of the year bent the curve.

2. Seasonality: The coronavirus is perhaps seasonal and destined to decline.

Behavior can’t explain everything regarding the decline. Mask wearing, social distancing, and other virus-mitigating habits and behaviors had some impact. But bottomline, COVID-19 is in retreat across North America and Europe. Since January 1, daily cases are down 70 percent in the United Kingdom, 50 percent in Canada, and 30 percent in Portugal. This raises the possibility that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is seasonal.

Many viruses fare best in cold and dry conditions; they’re not well designed to thrive in warmer, sunnier, and more humid outdoor areas, Harvard epidemiologist Michael Mina told New York magazine. Each virus is a bundle of genes and protein encased in a fatty lipid molecule. This fatty shell breaks down more easily in warmer and more humid environmental conditions.

3. Partial immunity: The virus is running out of bodies to infect

The coronavirus needs bodies in order to survive and replicate, and it now has access to fewer welcome hosts. Fifteen to 30 percent of American adults have already been infected with COVID-19, according to CDC estimates.

America’s seroprevalence—that is, the number of people with coronavirus antibodies from a previous infection—is probably concentrated among people who had little opportunity to avoid the disease.

This is partial immunity among the very populations that have been most likely to contract the disease, perhaps narrowing the path forward for the original SARS-CoV-2.

4. Vaccines: Despite naysayers and a few reluctant family members, the shots work.

The vaccines are highly effective at preventing infection. But preventing infection is not all they do. Among those infected, they also reduce symptomatic illness. And among those with symptoms, they reduce long-term hospitalization and death to something like zero.

It’s simple to show why this period of declining hospitalizations should keep going. Assuming the CDC is correct that about 25 percent of adults have COVID-19 antibodies from a previous infection and add to that number the 10 percent of adults who have received vaccine shots since December, that would mean one-third of adults currently have some sort of protection, either from a previous infection or from a vaccine. Thus, sometime this spring, half of American adults should have some kind of coronavirus protection.

Although the pandemic is far from over, the U.S. has reached the beginning of the end of COVID-19 as a threat to the health-care system and the senior citizen population.


References:

  1. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
  2. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/02/why-covid-19-cases-are-falling-so-fast/618041/

COVID-19 Cases Have Dropped 77% in Six Weeks

“COVID cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.”  Dr. Marty Makary, surgeon and professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health

Dr. Anthony Fauci, White House COVID adviser, reassured Americans that the millions of coronavirus vaccine doses delayed by winter storms in the Northeast and Texas would be delivered this week as the nation approaches the half million mark for deaths due to Covid-19.

Despite the delays in vaccine delivery, there are signs the pandemic has eased in the U.S. in recent weeks. The 7-day average for daily deaths has fallen more than a third since mid-January, while new infections are down nearly 70% since then, according to data from the New York Times. Additionally, according to data from John Hopkins University more than 498,900 people have died of COVID-19 as of Monday morning. Globally, 2.4 million people have passed due to the virus.

Dr. Marty Makary, a surgeon and a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, believes that the coronavirus will be “mostly gone” and ” normal life will return” by April 2021.  In an op-ed published by The Wall Street Journal, Dr. Makary argued that half of the U.S. has already reached herd immunity because there are more coronavirus cases in the country, possibly 6.5 times as many, than the 28 million that have been reported.

“There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection,” Makary wrote. “As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect COVID will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.”

Dr. Makary cites observational data which shows that the majority of Americans may already be protected not only from COVID-19 but also its new variants.  He states, “My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and conversations with experts.”

“But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity,” Makary wrote. “Behavior didn’t suddenly improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than they had since March. Vaccines also don’t explain the steep decline in January. Vaccination rates were low and they take weeks to kick in.”

Even with daily new infections falling below 70,000 on a 7-day rolling average, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has warned that more contagious variants could cause those numbers to rise again.


References:

  1. https://www.newsweek.com/john-hopkins-doctor-thinks-covid-will-largely-gone-april-half-us-has-herd-immunity-1570615
  2. https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731
  3. https://meaww.com/dr-marty-makary-johns-hopkins-surgeon-professor-claims-us-covid-mostly-gone-april-us-herd-immunity
  4. https://www.ftportfolios.com/common/contentfileloader.aspx?contentguid=2a5d4dcf-5eda-4310-8d23-af162f8fb7e9

Vaccination and Economic Recovery

As the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated, the economic recovery is dependent upon not only the course of the virus but also the vaccination progress. One silver lining is that some of the data trends, such as new cases and hospitalizations, appear to have peaked and are steadily improving. However, for a full return to normality, vaccinations for the majority of the population need to occur swiftly.

“Recovery will depend on the willingness of people to get on an airplane, stay in a hotel, and go out to dinner,” writes Raymond James chief economist Scott Brown. “A quicker rollout of vaccines will get us there sooner, but there is also a risk that vaccines will be less effective against new strains of the virus. Booster shots may be needed.”

The number of new daily COVID-19 cases has declined from recent highs, but remain elevated. Increased social distancing, whether state mandated or voluntary self-preservation, should slow the pace (and the economy) in the near term, according to Brown. The New York Fed’s Weekly Economic Index fell to -2.28% for the week ending January 23. The WEI is scaled to four- quarter GDP growth (for example, if the WEI reads -2% and the current level of the WEI persists for an entire quarter, we would expect, on average, GDP that quarter to be 2% lower than a year previously).

Yet, there are a few reasons for optimism.

  • First, President Biden’s original pledge of 100 doses in his first 100 days has been increased to 150 million as production and distribution capabilities expand. Purchasing 100 million doses of each of the high-efficacy Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is a positive.
  • Second, more experience should allow state administrators to improve communications and streamline the distribution process of the vaccine at the local level to maximize daily inoculations.
  • Third, while additional vaccines such as AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson have a lower efficacy rate than Modern and Pfizer, they will provide further accessibility (assuming emergency use authorization (EUA) is granted by the FDA) for people to receive some level of protection and hopefully avoid hospitalization.
  • The bottom line is that more effective distribution and additional second wave vaccine options keep the expectation of a return to normality for the US economy (and likely the rest of the world) around midyear. The biggest unknown and threat to this timeline remains the potential deterioration in vaccine effectiveness against the new mutations of the virus.
  • https://twitter.com/raymondjames/status/1353402346550644737?s=21


    References:

    1. https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/economy-policy/2021/01/29/weekly-economic-commentary

    Johnson & Johnson Vaccine

    A single-shot coronavirus vaccine from pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson was effective at preventing illness, hospitalizations and deaths in global trial. But its protection against sickness was stronger in the United States and weaker in South Africa, where a worrisome coronavirus variant now dominates.

    The results, once granted emergency use authorization by the FDA, would put a third vaccine on the market in the United States. A third vaccine could accelerate the ability to broaden immunity, as variants that challenge the current generation of vaccines spread across the world.

    The vaccine trial was primarily designed to measure how well the vaccine prevented illness. It was 66 percent effective overall at preventing moderate and severe disease: it was 72 percent effective at protecting against moderate to severe illness in the United States, but it was 66 percent effective in Latin America and 57 percent effective in South Africa, where concerning variants have taken root.

    Company officials emphasized the vaccine was 85 percent effective at preventing severe illness, and there were no cases of COVD-related hospitalization and death in people who received the vaccine. There were five COVID-related deaths in the trial, all in people who received the placebo, not the vaccine.

    Johnson & Johnson is expected to apply for emergency use authorization from the Food and Drug Administration late next week. If the review follows the path of two earlier vaccine candidates, the shot could be authorized and available to the public by March.

    The J&J vaccine uses a different technology than the two FDA  authorized mRNA vaccines. This vaccine employs ‘a harmless cold virus’ to deliver a gene that carries the blueprint for the spiky protein found on the surface of the coronavirus. The virus infects cells, which then follow the genetic instructions to construct a replica of the coronavirus spike.

    In contrast, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines use a strip of genetic material called messenger RNA to instruct cells to build the spiky protein found on the surface of the coronavirus. In both cases, the immune system learns to recognize the real virus by mustering an immune response to the spike.


    References:

    1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/29/covid-vaccine-johnson-and-johnson
    2. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/09/23/coronavirus-vaccine-jj-single-shot/?itid=lk_inline_manual_2

    Receiving the COVID-19 Vaccine

    As fatiguing as 2020 and the COVID-19 pandemic have been, science has stepped up this year to provide humankind with a pair of truly hopeful gifts: the first two FDA approved COVID-19 vaccines.

    Two weeks ago, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted emergency use authorization (EUA) to a COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer/BioNTech, enabling distribution to begin to certain high-risk groups just three days later.

    More recently, the FDA granted an EUA to a COVID-19 vaccine from the biotechnology company Moderna, Cambridge, MA. This messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine, which is part of a new approach to vaccination, was co-developed by NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).

    The EUA of the Moderna vaccine is based on data showing the vaccine is safe and 94.5 percent effective at protecting people from infection with SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

    Messenger-RNA vaccines are safe

    The two vaccines currently authorized for EUA in the United States work in a unique way. Their centerpiece is a small, non-infectious snippet of mRNA. Our cells constantly produce thousands of mRNAs, which provide the instructions needed to make proteins. When someone receives an mRNA vaccine for COVID-19, it tells the person’s own cells to make the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, according to information provided by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). The person’s immune system then recognizes the viral spike protein as foreign and produces antibodies to eliminate it.

    This vaccine-spurred encounter trains the human immune system to remember the spike protein. So, if an actual SARS-CoV-2 virus tries to infect a vaccinated person weeks or months later, his or her immune system will be ready to fend it off. To produce the most vigorous and durable immunity against the virus, people will need to get two shots of mRNA vaccine, which are spaced several weeks to a month apart, depending on the vaccine.

    Some misinformed individuals (or trolls) have raised concerns on social media that mRNA vaccines might alter the DNA genome of someone being vaccinated. But that’s not possible, since this mRNA doesn’t enter the nucleus of the cell where DNA is located. Instead, the vaccine mRNAs stay in the outer part of the cell (the cytoplasm).

    NIAID Director Dr. Anthony Fauci received Moderna’s COVID19 vaccine, co-developed with NIH. It’s imperative that you roll up your sleeve and accept the potentially life-saving gift of a COVID-19 vaccine. Accepting this gift is your best chance to put this pandemic behind you and your family, as we look forward to a better new year.

    Vaccines are the best hope for the nation to overcome the COVID-19 pandemic, public surveys indicate that some people are uneasy about accepting this disease-preventing vaccine. Some have even indicated they will refuse to take the vaccine. Healthy skepticism is a good thing, but decisions like this ought to be based on weighing the evidence of benefit versus risk.

    The results of the Pfizer and Moderna trials, all released for complete public scrutiny, indicate the potential benefits are high and the risks, low. Despite the impressive speed at which the new COVID-19 vaccines were developed, they have undergone and continue to undergo a rigorous process to generate all the data needed by the FDA to determine their long-term safety and effectiveness.

    Unfortunately, the gift of COVID-19 vaccines comes too late for the more than 313,000 Americans who have died from complications of COVID-19, and many others who’ve had their lives disrupted and may have to contend with long-term health consequences related to COVID-19. The vaccines did arrive in record time, but all of us wish they could somehow have arrived even sooner to avert such widespread suffering and heartbreak.

    It will be many months before all Americans who are willing to get a vaccine can be immunized. We need 75-80 percent of Americans to receive vaccines in order to attain the so-called “herd immunity” needed to drive SARS-CoV-2 away and allow us all to get back to a semblance of normal personal and professional life.


    References:

    1. https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/12/22/celebrating-the-gift-of-covid-19-vaccines/