Tag Archives: Volatility

Investing Principles and Rules

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Value investing is one of the most preferred ways to find strong companies and buy their stocks at a reasonable price in any type of market.

Value investors, such as Warren Buffett and Monish Pabrai, use fundamental analysis and traditional valuation metrics like intrinsic a value to find companies that they believe are being undervalued intrinsically by the stock market.

A stock is not just a ticker symbol; it is an ownership interest in an actual business with an underlying value that does not depend on its share market price.

Inflation eats away at your returns and takes away your wealth. Inflation is easy to overlook and it is important to measure your investing success not just by what you make, but by how much you keep after inflation. Defenses against inflation include:

  • Buying stocks (at the right prices),
  • REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts), and
  • TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities).

The future value of every investment is a function of its present price. The higher the price you pay, the lower your return will be.

No matter how careful you are, the one risk no investor can ever eliminate is the risk of being wrong. Only by insisting on a margin of safety  – by never overpaying, no matter how exciting an investment seems to be – can you minimize your odds of error.

Knowing that you are responsible is fundamental to saving for the future, building wealth and achieving financial freedom. It’s the primary secret to your financial success and it’s inside yourself. If you become a critical thinker and you invest with patient confidence, you can take steady advantage of even the worst bear markets. By developing your discipline and courage, you can refuse to let other people’s mood swings govern your financial destiny. In the end, how your investments behave is much less important than how you behave.

Every investment is the present value of future cash flow. Everything Money

Three things to know is that it’s important to understand and acknowledge that a stock is a piece of a business. Thus, it becomes essential to understand the business..

  • Principle #1: Always Invest with a Margin of Safety – Margin of safety is the principle of buying a security at a significant discount to its intrinsic value, which is thought to not only provide high-return opportunities but also to minimize the downside risk of an investment. No matter how careful you are, the one risk no investor can ever eliminate is the risk of being wrong. Only by insisting on a margin of safety  – by never overpaying, no matter how exciting an investment seems to be – can you minimize your odds of error.
  • Principle #2: Expect Volatility and Profit from It – Investing in stocks means dealing with volatility. Instead of running for the exits during times of market stress, the smart investor greets downturns as chances to find great investments. The guru of value investing Benjamin Graham illustrated this with the analogy of “Mr. Market,” the imaginary business partner of each and every investor. Mr. Market offers investors a daily price quote at which he would either buy an investor out or sell his share of the business. Sometimes, he will be excited about the prospects for the business and quote a high price. Other times, he is depressed about the business’s prospects and quotes a low price. The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism (which makes stocks too expensive) and unjustified pessimism (which makes them too cheap). The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.
  • Principle #3: Know What Kind of Investor You Are – Graham advised that investors know their investment selves. To illustrate this, he made clear distinctions among various groups operating in the stock market.1 Active vs. Passive Investors Graham referred to active and passive investors as “enterprising investors” (requires patience, discipline, eagerness to learn, and lots of time) and “defensive investors.”1 You only have two real choices: the first choice is to make a serious commitment in time and energy to become a good investor who equates the quality and amount of hands-on research with the expected return. If this isn’t your cup of tea, then be content to get a passive (possibly lower) return, but with much less time and work. Graham turned the academic notion of “risk = return” on its head. For him, “work = return.” The more work you put into your investments, the higher your return should be.

Because the stock market has the emotions of fear and greed, the lesson here is that you shouldn’t let Mr. Market’s views dictate your own emotions, or worse, lead you in your investment decisions. Instead, you should form your own estimates of the business’s value based on a sound and rational examination of the facts.

References:

  1. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/07/grahamprinciples.asp
  2. https://jsilva.blog/2020/06/22/intelligent-investor-summary/

Volatility and Market of Stocks

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If you pay any attention to the stock market, you probably know that volatility is actually a normal part of investing.

Stock market volatility is a measure of how much the stock market’s overall value fluctuates up and down. A stock with a price that fluctuates wildly—hits new highs and lows or moves erratically—is considered highly volatile. A stock that maintains a relatively stable price has low volatility. according to Investopedia.

Stock market volatility is most commonly measured by standard deviation, which is a measure of the amount of variability around an average. The larger the standard deviation, the higher the volatility will be.

Volatility is often associated with fear, which tends to rise during bear markets, stock market crashes, and other big downward moves. However, volatility doesn’t measure direction. It’s simply a measure of how big the price swings are. You can think of volatility as a measure of short-term uncertainty.

“Keep it simple and avoid complications in the markets.”

  • Sooner or later, most investors realize that the stock market is actually a ‘market of stocks’ that is chaotic, dictated by investors’ emotions of fear and greed, and influenced by interest rates and macro economic conditions. Good stocks don’t always advance. Bad stocks don’t always fall. Reality is rarely ever as bullish, or as bearish, as forecasted by financial analysts and strategists.

What is certain is that a quasi-invisible force known as volatility is always always present, threatening to disrupt the market’s delicate equilibrium and sanity.

“One of the hardest parts about being a long-term investor is the fact that sometimes your money is going to get incinerated and there’s nothing you can do about it.” Barry Ritholtz

Investors have a few primary ways to respond.

  • They can sit tight and act like long-term investors. Time tends to reward such behavior, though research has shown that it is as difficult to practice as it is uncommon.
  • Most investors never hold stocks long enough to benefit from the fact that the market rises over time. Investors typically buy too late and sell too early. They routinely “greed in” and “panic out” of stocks. They hold stocks for just a few years — or worse, a few months — rather than carefully curating a portfolio over decades, which means most investors behave like salmon swimming upstream. They struggle against the stock market’s natural rhythms.
  • Rotations is when smart and retail money runs after gains in certain sectors until a rally there becomes exhausted, and then their money runs to other sectors.
  • Investors can use options to more effectively navigate the stock market. A well-placed put or call can make all the difference in an uncertain market. A well-placed options contract can turn the unpredictably of investing into a defined outcome.
  • There are two types of options. A call option gives investors the right to buy a stock at a certain price and time. A put option gives investors the right to sell a stock at a certain price and time. An easy way to remember the difference between puts and calls is that a call gives you the right to “call in” a winning stock, while a put gives you the right to “put off” a bad stock on someone else.
  • Investors buy puts when they want to protect stock that they own from losing value.
  • Investors buy calls when they want to own a stock they believe will increase in value.
  • Many investors sell puts and calls to generate income.
  • Many people pick options that expire in three months or less. When you buy an options contract that expires in a year or more, you spend more money because time equals risk.
  • Simplicity is everything. It’s important to keep your trading strategy simple and avoid complications in the markets. Since everything could change tomorrow, or not, and thus we fall back on something we learned during the dark days of the 2008-09 financial crisis: Focus on the facts that have held up over time

Consider keeping a list of stocks or exchange-traded funds you would like to buy during market sell offs or crashes.

When in doubt, always remember: “Bad investors think of ways to make money. Good investors think of ways to not lose money.”

To keep from panicking when stock market volatility ticks up, it’s important to realize that volatility comes with the territory when you decide to invest. The stock market will always have its ups and downs, and there’s no use trying to predict what’s going to happen. So if you’re investing for the long term, consider basing your decisions on your goals. timeline and tolerance for risk, rather than on what’s happening in the markets from one day to the next.

Also, remember that being diversified is one way to help manage your exposure to volatility. By spreading your money out over various asset classes you’re also spreading out your market risk, and ensuring your portfolio’s results aren’t based on the performance of one type of investment.

References:

  1. https://www.fool.com/investing/how-to-invest/stocks/stock-market-volatility/
  2. https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-buy-and-sell-options-without-making-a-fool-of-yourself-51600336811
  3. http://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-use-options-to-beat-the-market-1477415121
  4. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/05/sometimes-you-just-have-to-eat-your-losses-in-the-markets/

Stay Invested – Time in the Markets

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“Time in the markets, not timing the markets.”

A common mantra in investing circles is ‘it’s about time in the markets, not timing the markets’. In other words, the best way to make money is to stay invested for the long term, rather than worrying about short term volatility or whether now is the best time to invest.

Value investing guru Benjamin Graham once quipped that “in the short term the stock market is a voting machine” that measures the popularity of companies and the sentiment of investors, whereas in “the long term it is a weighing machine” that measures each company’s fundamentals and intrinsic value.

Time in the market works because it takes this ‘guess the market bottom’ element out of the equation. By focusing on the long term, it’s easier to ignore the volatility of markets. Sure, it’s still scary watching the value of your share portfolio fall from time to time.

Time in the market is really about harnessing the power of compound interest. Compounding is the best thing about investing. Albert Einstein once said “Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe. Compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it, he who doesn’t, pays it.”

With compounding, your money accumulates a lot faster because the interest is calculated in regular intervals and you earn interest on top of interest. Compounding is usually what makes investors like billionaire investor Warren Buffett wealthy. If you are able to achieve a consistently high annual rate of return over the long term, building wealth is almost inevitable. And Buffett has never tried to time a market in his life.

But pushing and pulling your money in and out of the market stymies the compounding process. And all it takes is one massive mistime to end up back at square one given the fact that market can never be timed. Investor Peter Lynch said it best: “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.”

Compounding plays a pivotal role in growing your wealth. When using compounding, the results will be small at the start but over time, your wealth will accumulate fast. Warren Buffet is known to make the majority of his wealth later in his adult life and this is due to the compounding interest effect on his assets and invested capital.

Missing the best days

Timing the markets involves trying to second-guess the ups and downs, with the hope that you will buy when prices are low and sell when they are high. This can be lucrative if you get it right consistently, but this is very difficult to do and getting it wrong means locking in losses and missing out on gains.

Not only is timing the market difficult to get right, it also poses the risk of missing the ‘good’ days when share prices increase significantly. Historically, many of the best days for the stock markets have occurred during periods of extreme volatility.

Instead of trying to time the market, spending time in the market is more likely to give you better returns over the long term. It is best to base your investment decisions on the long-term fundamentals rather than short-term market noise and volatility.

Value of $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 in 1980

Source: Ned Davis Research, 12/31/1979-7/1/2020.

This chart uses a series of bars to show that from the end of 1979 until July 1, 2020, a $10,000 investment would have been worth $860,900 if invested the entire period. Missing just the 10 best days during that period would reduce the value by more than half, to $383,400.

Anybody who pulls money out in the early stages of a volatile period could miss these good days, as well as potentially locking in some losses. For instance, between May 2008 and February 2009 in the depths of the global financial crisis the MSCI World index dropped by -30.4%. By the end of 2009 it had bounced back +40.8%.

References:

  1. https://www.edwardjones.com/us-en/market-news-insights/guidance-perspective/benefits-investing-stock
  2. https://www.fa-mag.com/news/retirees-are-leading-precarious-financial-lives-42426.html
  3. https://www.tilney.co.uk/news/it-s-about-time-in-the-markets-not-timing-the-markets
  4. https://www.fool.com.au/2020/10/06/does-time-in-the-market-really-beat-timing-the-market/
  5. https://www.fool.com.au/definitions/compounding/

6 simple ways to take action in your financial life without hurting your long-term goals | Vanguard

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“It’s natural and human to feel like you need to take action and “do” something–anything–to stay in control and protect your financial interests.”

Scientific studies have shown that the human brain really likes to feel in control. We’re built to take action to protect ourselves and the people we love when signs point to trouble.

That’s why when markets become volatile, it’s natural and human to feel like you need to take action and “do” something–anything–to stay in control and protect your financial interests. You might feel anxious or worried. Don’t worry; you’re not alone in feeling that way.

Taking action during uncertain times may help you feel more confident about the way things will turn out. That said, if you feel like you need to make changes to your portfolio, it’s important to make sure that the action you take won’t put your long-term financial goals in jeopardy.

Here are some things you can do to feel in control without losing sight of the bigger picture:

Run some numbers

If you feel you have to do something, consider starting with your calculator. Numbers can give you a rational way of framing things that can settle some of those anxious feelings. For example, you can analyze how market conditions have affected your portfolio and compare it with the expectations you had based on your risk tolerance. Or compare your current asset mix with your target and rebalance if it differs by 5 percentage points or more.

Speak the language of action

Describing your strategy as “staying the course” or “doing nothing” may make you feel you’re not doing enough. Instead, describe what you’re doing as fighting the impulse to get out of the market or giving your portfolio an opportunity to rebound. You’re trusting your mix of assets to get you through market ups and downs, and that takes mental strength. Give yourself credit where it’s due.

Talk it over

Consider sharing your plan of action with others. Take a look at the Vanguard Blog for inspiration. When other people show support for what you’re doing and chime in that they’re doing it too, it can make you feel good about your choices. Helping others when they have questions can also go a long way toward building your confidence.

Take comfort in history

So far, every market downturn in history has been followed by a rebound. We don’t know when it will happen or how big it will be, but there’s good reason to believe that better times are ahead.

Think about what you can control

If you’re saving for retirement, you may be able to control how much you save or how long you can save (if you have a retirement date in mind). If you’re retired, you may be able to adjust the percentage of your portfolio you withdraw during a market downturn.

Your spending habits are within your control too. Of course, it’s probably not realistic to expect that you’ll start clipping coupons, switch to generic brands, and skip your afternoon coffee run all at once. Try cutting down your spending in just one area at a time to see what works best for your life.

We recognize that this is your portfolio, and you control your asset mix. We don’t recommend changing your asset mix in response to market movement, but if you’re determined to make a change to your portfolio, make it a small one. Some examples of small things you can do: Direct one of your stock funds’ investment earnings to a bond fund, or change the asset mix of a single account rather than your entire portfolio.

Lean in

Lean on personal financial advisors to provide you with the leadership you need to make it through uncertain times. Trusting a financial expert to bring order to a situation that feels out of control can help you ease anxious feelings.

Source: https://investornews.vanguard/6-simple-ways-to-take-action-in-your-financial-life-without-hurting-your-long-term-goals/?cmpgn=BR:OSM:OSMFB:OTHERS:072920:TXL:OTM:xx::OTHR:OTH:OTS:XXX::XX&sf235757186=1

Note: All investing is subject to risk, including possible loss of the money you invest. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

Financial Planning and Market Volatility

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“The first rule of investment is ‘buy low and sell high’, but many people fear to buy low because of the fear of the stock dropping even lower. Then you may ask: ‘When is the time to buy low?’ The answer is: When there is maximum pessimism.”  Sir John Templeton

Market volatility is a fundamental part of trading and investing. When market volatility strikes, it’s common for investors to succumb to temptation and follow the herd to panic sell stocks.

Financial Planning is About Long-Term Goals

“All financial success comes from acting on a plan. A lot of financial failures come from reacting to the market.” Nick Murray

Setting financial goals—and sticking with your plan—is key to potential long-term success. Rather than letting market volatility change your long-term financial plans, it is important to stay focused on your long term goals and disciplined in your investment philosophy.

“Your financial goals aren’t set in stone,” according to Mark Gleason, senior manager of investment products and guidance at TD Ameritrade. “Circumstances change, and what you want might change. When that happens, it does make sense to change your approach.”

“Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach. If you are susceptible to selling everything in a panic, you ought to avoid stocks and mutual funds altogether.” Peter Lynch

Just remember, the time to make adjustments to your long term financial plan are due to changes in life circumstances and should not be in response to market volatility. Here are four reasons to adjust your financial plan:

  1. Change in risk tolerance. If something has happened to change your risk tolerance, making tweaks to your financial plan can make sense. When a recent shakeup forces you to confront where you stand, it might be time to adjust your approach.
  2. New life events. Perhaps there’s been a death in the family. Or you’ve added a new baby to the mix. Maybe you’re getting married or going through a divorce. All of these life events can indicate a change in your financial planning approach.
  3. Shifting to a new life phase. Sometimes your approach needs to change as you actually start approaching your long-term financial goals. When you move from preretirement to actual retirement, your strategy is likely to change. Likewise, if you’ve been growing your child’s 529 and you’re worried about potential market volatility, you might make a few tweaks to the portfolio.
  4. Setting new financial goals. Most people set different financial goals as they move through life. Maybe you decide that buying a home isn’t the goal now; you’d rather get an RV and travel. Perhaps your target retirement age has changed. Whatever the new goal, you might need different financial planning in order to meet it.

Stay disciplined when investing.

Market volatility can cause discomfort, but it is important to realize that market volatility is short term and should not impact your long term goals and financial planning. You’ve set long-term financial goals designed to help you reach certain life milestones—and you don’t want to undo all your progress just to feel better during a market downturn.

“Why is staying the course so important?  As an extreme example, consider the investor who lost faith in the markets and cashed out on March 23, the low point in the U.S. stock market. Stocks subsequently rebounded more than 39% over the next three months; the unfortunate individual who moved to a money market fund earned a meager 0.14%. Vanguard’s analysis found that about 85% of investors who fled to cash would have been better off if they had just held their own portfolio.” (Source:  Vanguard, https://investornews.vanguard/a-snapshot-of-investor-behavior-during-a-downturn/)

Reference:

  1. https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/investing/financial-planning-setting-financial-goals-amid-market-volatility-18160
  2. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/ten-quotes-on-volatility-from-the-masters-of-the-market
  3. https://investornews.vanguard/a-snapshot-of-investor-behavior-during-a-downturn/

Top Five Global Investment Risks In 2021 | Charles Schwab

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The top five global risks for investors in 2021 are all surprises to the consensus view:

  • Problems with the vaccine rollout,
  • Geopolitical and trade tensions do not subside,
  • Fiscal and/or monetary policy tightens,
  • A “zombie” economy, and
  • Interest rate/dollar shock.

History demonstrates that the biggest financial risks in a typical year aren’t usually from out of left field (although a black swan did occur in 2020 with the COVID-19 outbreak). Rather, they are often hiding in plain sight.

Risk appears when there is a very high degree of confidence among market participants in a specific outcome that doesn’t pan out. So, by identifying the unexpected, here are the top five downside global risks for investors in 2021. To read more: https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/top-five-global-investment-risks-2021?cmp=em-QYD

Be prepared

Whether or not these particular risks come to pass, a new year almost always brings surprises of one form or another. Having a well-balanced, diversified portfolio and being prepared with a plan in the event of an unexpected outcome are keys to successful investing.

References:

  1. https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/top-five-global-investment-risks-2021?cmp=em-QYD